A bit more detail about the above regarding the inflation report for those that give a hoot. ECONOMY Inflation rose 4.9% in April from a year ago, less than expectations A widely followed measure of inflation rose in April, despite more than a year’s worth of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday. However, that equated to an annual increase of 4.9%, slightly less than the 5% estimate. Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 5.5% from a year ago both in line with expectations. Increases in shelter, gasoline and used vehicles pushed the index higher, and were offset somewhat by declines in prices for fuel oil, new vehicles and food at home. Markets reacted positively to the news, with futures turning positive as Treasury yields were lower. Inflation has been persistent despite the Fed’s efforts to bring down prices. Starting in March 2022, the central bank has enacted 10 consecutive interest rate increases totaling 5 percentage points, taking benchmark borrowing rates to their highest level in nearly 16 years. The CPI reading has cooled considerably since peaking out around 9% in June 2022. However, inflation still has held well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. The report provides both good and bad news on the inflation front as Fed officials weigh their next move on rates. Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, increased another 0.4% on the month and are now up 8.1% from a year ago. The monthly gain represented a step down from previous months’ increases but was still indicative that a key inflation driver is rising. At the same time, the 4.4% jump in prices for used cars and trucks reverses recent declines. Food prices, though, were flat while the energy index rose 0.6%, boosted by a 3% gain in gasoline. Of the six grocery store indexes the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to compute food prices, four showed declines. Milk, for instance, fell 2%, the biggest monthly drop since February 2015.
One thing that has kind of been lost in all the other prevalent noise this year has been the performance of the NASDAQ 100. Some of these companies have been rolling for a good bit now. Lets take a look at some of them. Here are the top ten so far this year. Nasdaq 100 Component Year to Date Returns # Company Symbol YTD Return 1 NVIDIA Corp NVDA 97.65% 2 Meta Platforms Inc META 93.68% 3 Seagen Inc SGEN 55.62% 4 MercadoLibre Inc MELI 52.31% 5 Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD 49.79% 6 Align Technology Inc ALGN 44.74% 7 Palo Alto Networks Inc PANW 42.90% 8 Warner Bros Discovery Inc WBD 37.55% 9 Fortinet Inc FTNT 37.06% 10 Tesla Inc TSLA 36.82% Some other notable mentions. 11 Apple Inc AAPL 33.58% 15 Amazon.com Inc AMZN 31.18% 16 Microsoft Corp MSFT 30.23% 19 Alphabet Inc GOOGL 26.66% https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100/performance
Another report (PPI) out today for those keeping up with them. This article addresses a bit about it and of course adds a bit of opinion/speculation.....as usual since most news articles can't just simply provide the basic info without adding their own ideas about what may or may not occur. US wholesale price data for April points to easing inflation pressures WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale prices in the United States decelerated last month, the latest sign that inflationary pressures may be easing more than a year after the Federal Reserve unleashed an aggressive campaign of steadily higher interest rates. From March to April, the government's producer price index rose 0.2% after falling 0.4% from February to March. Compared with a year earlier, wholesale prices rose just 2.3% last month, the 10th straight slowdown and the lowest figure since January 2021 . The index that the Labor Department issued Thursday reflects prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers. It can provide an early sign of how fast consumer inflation will rise. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core wholesale inflation rose 0.2% from March and 3.2% from 12 months earlier. The Fed pays particularly close attention to core prices, which tend to be a better gauge of the economy's underlying inflation pressures. Thursday’s figures follow a government report Wednesday that showed that at the consumer level, core prices rose 0.4% from March to April — the fifth straight month that those prices have risen at least that much, well above the pace needed to meet the Fed's 2% annual inflation target. On a year-over-year basis, overall consumer inflation, at 4.9%, has dropped significantly since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 yet remains well above the Fed’s target level. Economic growth slowed to a tepid 1.1% annual rate from January through March. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate 10 times in 14 months. The central bank's policymakers want to slow the U.S. economy — the world's biggest — just enough to control price increases without causing a recession. But many economists are skeptical and expect the United States to slip into a recession later this year. Higher borrowing costs have dealt a blow to some key sectors of the economy, notably the housing market. Pounded by higher mortgage rates, sales of existing homes were down a sharp 22% in March from a year earlier. Investment in housing has cratered over the past year. Still, the job market, the cornerstone of the economy, remains healthy even though it has lost some momentum. The unemployment rate, at 3.4, is at a 54-year low. Last week, the Fed signaled that it may now pause its interest rate hikes so that its policymakers can step back and assess the impact of higher rates on growth and inflation. Chair Jerome Powell also said the Fed would monitor other threats, including the recent turmoil in the banking sector, to determine whether to suspend its rate hikes. Powell stressed his belief that the collapse of three large banks in the past six weeks will likely cause other banks to tighten lending to avoid similar fates. Such lending cutbacks, he added, will likely help slow the economy, cool inflation and lessen the need for the Fed to further raise rates.
Good week for PLTR… I’ve owned that stock in the past but dumped it when the rates started going up last year (or was it the year before, I can’t remember)… I have been following it since and still think it has great potential. The company’s ceo doesn’t just have a good product which is used by governments around the world, which is actually HUGELY involved around AI architecture, he is also a very smart investor, probably because the product which he provides- aggregating accurate statistical data and analyzing them efficiently, gives him the most accurate view on latest investing trends among other things. That’s why as an example, at the peak of the crypto bubble in 2021, he invested 50 million dollars in gold bars instead of following the herd. Well he’s company’s investments have done extremely well and the reports are not just big on earnings, but also on the bottom line. So much so that they guarantee an increase in every quarter of 23…. Anyways, I’m monitoring the whole thing closely and may invest in the coming days if I see it’s continuing to rise. Other than that, I dumped my partial Amazon holding a couple of months ago, when the whole banking crisis elevated, and invested it in a long term position which I always wanted to own - AMCR. I suspect that they are in a good period to buy, and also yield a good dividend. So that one I’m not letting go of. Real estate wise- Columbus OH is booming! Google announced that they are opening two more data centers here, and they join the ranks of meta, Amazon and of course Intel. perfect timing for us as we have JUST completed our rezoning process of our property from residential to commercial. We can technically sell our property now as commercial, and get at least double, almost triple what we paid in 21 when we bought it. That’s the latest investment wise. Hope everyone is doing well with their money! Oh.. up 28.51% YTD…. Let the good times roll!
I watch squawk early in the am also for those reasons that you’ve mentioned - they have great guests and I think they are well balanced, unlike the crew that comes after them. I also like the halftime report, particularly tuesdays and thursdays when they have Josh brown around. He is very informative, has a unique observation and funny af
Some notes from Googles latest presentation, mainly regarding AI. THIS IS NUTS! totally explains the excitement and renewed interest in GOOG in past two days https://twitter.com/mreflow/status/...oker.com/2023/05/11/google-goes-all-in-on-ai/
DID YOU MISS ME........? Well back to work with the markets. I am down so far today.....like the markets. I did not pay attention to anything earlier this week.....I let my account do the work for me. I see that I am now ahead of where I started the week....even with my loss today. I am now at +19.17% year to date......at the start of the market on Monday I was at +19.03% year to date. I have a moderate/medium level LOSS today. My winners so far are.....GOOGL, HD, and COST.
That is GREAT news on the zoning Zukodany.......a HUGE gain for you. You saw a RATIONAL, ACHIEVABLE opportunity and you took it. That is how you do it.
A tidbit on a down day. What I Learned From the Oracle of Omaha & Charlie Munger https://contrarianedge.com/what-i-learned-from-the-oracle-of-omaha/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "When asked about the future of value investing, Buffett answered: “Value investing will be fine; people will continue to do dumb things.” I agree; I came to the same conclusion… No matter how much things change, they remain the same. Whether a trade is submitted through a Western Union telegram, as was often done at the turn of the nineteenth century, or through the video game look-alike screen of an online broker, as often happens today, it still has a human originating it. And all humans come with standard emotional equipment that is, to some degree, predictable. Human emotions and thus long-term market trends are here to stay. Over the years we’ve become more educated, with access to fancier, faster, and better financial tools. A myriad of information is accessible at our fingertips, with speed and abundance that just a decade ago were available to only a privileged few. But despite all that, we are no less human than we were 10, 50, or 100 years ago. Unless technology and innovations strip away our emotions, we’ll behave like humans no matter how sophisticated we become. Unless we completely outsource all of our investment decision making to computers, markets will still be impacted by human emotions. Emotions are the price-and joy-of being human. Buffett also said, “People are trying to outsmart each other in arenas that you don’t have to play in.” This is a good reminder that you don’t get extra points in the market for the degree of difficulty of analysis. I can instantly raise my IQ (I need as much help as I can get) by choosing problems that I can solve. On a morbid topic of wills, Buffett opined that “if your kids are reading your will for the first time after you have died, this is a mistake that you won’t be able to correct.” He is not going to sign a will unless he shares the contents of it with his kids and gets their feedback. Loved this from Buffett: “If you want to know how to live your life, write your obituary and then reverse engineer it so that you can live up to it. In addition, Buffett said: “If you want your kids to have certain values, it’s important that you live those values and talk about it.” I cannot agree more with it. This applies not just to parenting but being a boss. If I don’t practice what I preach, my employees will not take me seriously. Buffett’s quote that stuck with me most was “I don’t know anyone who is kind to die without friends. I know plenty people with money to die without friends”. Having money only attracts friends who value you for your money. Kindness, however, has an everlasting purchasing power. Munger’s advice for a good life: “It’s so simple to spend less than you earn, avoid toxic people, toxic activities, keep learning all your life, defer gratification because you prefer it that way, and if you do it all this way you will succeed. If not, you will need a lot of unusual luck.” Charlie doubled down on the toxic people comment: “Get them the hell out of your life.” My favorite line from Munger was: “Practicing law today is like a pie-eating contest, where if you succeed, you get to eat more pie.” Tom Gayner, the CEO of Markel, and I were speaking at a YPO event. Tom said, (I’m paraphrasing) “Buying low-quality companies at low prices is like hiring bad employees cheaply. You’d rather pay a bit more and hire a great employee.” I’ve been noodling about it over the last few days and I agree with this sentiment, both as a CEO and an investor. What I’ve learned over the years is that great employees and companies (run by great people) tend to surprise you with upside. I’ve painfully learned that bad employees and companies tend to surprise you with downside (they have negative optionality embedded in them). Additionally, it’s so much easier to go through tough times with great companies and employees. I don’t want to be flippant about the price you pay; at certain prices, even great companies become bad investments, but the point still stands. Avoiding cheap, low quality companies and hiring mediocre employees is half of the battle. " MY COMMENT What is the key......common sense and simplicity. combine that with the ability to use fundamental data and BINGO.....you are a good investor for life.
I have been seeing the gold and silver advertising ramping up lately. i guess due to the DEFAULT fear mongering. Tarnished: Why We Don’t Think Gold IRAs Are Golden https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...nished-why-we-dont-think-gold-iras-are-golden (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Do your homework and you will find gold IRAs aren’t so shiny. As gold keeps flirting with record highs, it continues attracting heaps of attention. We find it a little weird, considering this simply means gold is flat and trailing stocks since its last peak in August 2020, but you wouldn’t know that from the nonstop marketing campaigns. One in particular is gaining a lot of momentum: the push for gold IRAs. An article in Monday’s edition of The Wall Street Journal noted some considerations for those considering this and highlighted the difficulties in doing due diligence on the providers, given a lack of required disclosure. But we think there is more. Now, we have written before—and no doubt will again—that we don’t think gold’s combination of high volatility and low returns is a fit for most long-term investors’ goals. But if you disagree and want to own some anyway, in our view, a gold IRA is the suboptimal way to do it. When IRAs were born as part of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in 1974, they couldn’t hold precious metals. That changed in 1997, when Congress altered the rules to let some self-directed IRAs hold physical gold (or other precious metals), provided they were stored in an IRS-approved depository and the coins or gold bars were classified as investments rather than collectibles. That turned out to be a complex system for most folks to navigate, with high compliance and storage costs. But where there is demand there are business opportunities, and one-stop shops specializing in “gold IRAs” have proliferated over the past 15 years. They will generally set up the account, sell and store the gold for customers, streamlining the process. With gold now back near record highs and people (wrongly, in our view) touting it as an inflation or uncertainty hedge, gold IRAs are getting a lot of attention right now. But look into this space closely, and you will find fees. A lot of them. When you own stocks and bonds in an IRA, if your account is self-directed, it is entirely possible your commissions will be free or close to it, depending on where your account is custodied. If you work with an investment adviser, they may charge a fee based on your assets under management. (Of course, brokers can charge an array of different fees that are transaction-based, so we recommend understanding those up front.) But Gold IRAs? They have a litany of what we would call operational or maintenance fees. There are account setup fees, which based on our Internet research of the major players, can run hundreds of dollars. Ditto the recurring annual service and storage fees. And that is just the operational stuff: You will likely also pay through the nose for the gold itself. No, not because gold currently trades for over $2,000 per troy ounce. Because the gold IRA company—which also sells the gold—sets pricing, normally including a markup and, possibly, charges commissions to buy and sell it.[ii] The pricing is a point these companies compete on, but oddly, few actually disclose the markups clearly. We reviewed several well-publicized gold IRA firms’ account agreements and found some disclosing they mark gold prices up by 10%. (The same document shows it could be much higher on specialized products or other metals.) Another quoted a range of 2% to 7%, but stated that premium coins could carry a markup of 35%. A third firm quoted a range of 4% to 33%, which is, well, wide. So, using the 10% markup for simplicity, if you spend $50,000 on physical gold, you are buying $45,454.55 worth of gold. $4,545.45 goes to the gold IRA firm. That is light years beyond the commissions and dealer’s markup on an identically sized investment in stocks or liquid US Treasury bonds. Echoing the Journal’s claim, because disclosure requirements are so thin, most providers that we looked into didn’t disclose their markup, making it impossible for customers to know how much they are paying. And, by extension, making it impossible to know how much gold would need to appreciate for their actual investment to be profitable. We also see some broader, investment-related drawbacks. An IRA is a tax shelter, enabling your investments to grow without being subject to capital gains or investment income taxes. That means dividends and bond interest are tax-free (though traditional IRA withdrawals are subject to ordinary income taxes). Gold doesn’t pay dividends or interest. It doesn’t generate earnings. It just sits there, in a vault, with its price often languishing between booms. This reality doesn’t quite square with the emotional marketing pitches we often encounter, which play on people’s real fears about currency collapse and the alleged importance of hard assets in some dystopian future. But in that event, what good is physical gold held through intermediaries and requiring mountains of paperwork to access? That is perhaps the most perplexing part of this. Gold IRAs are often pitched as a hedge against a house-of-cards financial system, yet they require a great deal of trust and paperwork. Much more so than, say, owning a gold ETF that doesn’t require a special IRA, high fees or being responsible for physical storage. Again, we don’t think investing in gold makes sense for most folks, but if you are to do so, wouldn’t it make more sense to go with the most liquid, lowest-cost and lowest-hassle option? That is doubly true when you consider that gold’s long-term annualized returns are lower than long-term Treasurys. Anything that erodes an already low return seems like a suboptimal way to invest in an asset. So please, if you find yourself tempted by gold IRAs, do your homework. Find the pros and cons. Grill the salesperson about markup and the entire range of costs. And then think critically about your reason for wanting to buy and whether this will actually accomplish what you are looking for." MY COMMENT I NEVER consider the gold and silver that I own as an investment. I lump it in with my art, antiques, and other hard assets that just sit. It does not compound or pay anything and most of the time it is range-bound. I do have over 1000 oz of silver and about 20 oz of gold. I also buy a couple Gold Buffalo coins each year at the start of the year. I used to buy 3-4 sleeves of Silver Eagles.....but when my last green mint box was full a few years I switched to a couple of Gold Buffalo coins annually instead. This stuff just sits in my siblings safe. I see it as a fun little diversion.......that might have a bit of value in a ROAD WARRIOR situation. Of course someone bigger than me would probably just take it away from me. I DO NOT recommend either silver or gold as an investment.....but that is just me.
I have not paid any attention to the markets today.....but I guess this is what is happening. S&P 500 falls on Friday and heads for second down week in a row https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 157 points lower, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% while the S&P 500 slipped about 0.6% A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008. Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week. “None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments. The S&P 500 and Dow are headed for their second negative week in a row, down 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Regional bank shares slid, marking another day of declines. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.4%. Western Alliance slipped 0.4%, while PacWest fell 1.5%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market. Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month. Consumer sentiment drops more than expected in May Consumers grew more pessimistic in May as persistently high inflation and troubles in the banking industry weighed on sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 57.7 for the month, down from 63.5 in April and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 63. Inflation expectations for a year from now edged lower to 4.5% but rose on the five-year outlook to 3.2%, tied for the highest since June 2008." MY COMMENT We continue to re-hash the same old fear mongering topics. Some like sentiment being strongly negative could be seen as a positive indicator for the future......but......not in the environment we are in today.......everything MUST be taken with the most negative take possible. I prefer to see the sentiment as a contrary indicator......assuming it even means anything at all. I dont care to invest according to how other people......"FEEL". As to the DEBT NEGOTIATIONS and the danger of default......a TOTAL JOKE. Unfortunately we are in a little time period where every day there MUST be a fear mongering topic of the day.
Well, look what the cat dragged in.... Welcome back W.....and zukodany too. I haven't paid much attention today either. Seems any day that has a bit of red, the stories/reports just get as dumb as can be. There is no rational nor reasonable reporting anymore. It is simply crazy vs crazy at this point or dumb and dumber. I seen an article the other day referring to some market related stuff all the way out to 2025. They can't get through a quarter right, yet somehow they know even further out.
WELL......a down day for me today.....that is what I get for coming back to the markets. At least.....looking for the positive......I have less of a loss at the close then i did earlier today. Seven of ten stocks in the red......three UP. The UP stocks were COST, HD, and GOOGL. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.31%. ALTHOUGH as you will see in the post below I actually made some money this week.
A very MIXED week this week for the big averages. DOW year to date +0.46% DOW for the week (-1.11%) SP500 year to date +7.41% SP500 for the week (-0.29%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +22.07% NASDAQ 100 for the week +0.67% NASDAQ year to date +17.37% NASDAQ for the week +0.40% RUSSELL year to date (-1.16%) RUSSELL for the week (-1.08%) As to my ENTIRE account......I ended the week at +19.32% year to date. I started the week at +19.03% year to date. So.....for me....it was a GREEN week. Nothing for me to complain about.
Congratulations on the mega views, W. I'm still flat on the year. This pic sums up my investment style.
HERE.....is more on the one topic that is "unmentionable". I LOVE the nasty headline. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...n-data-stock-market-news-today-171535747.html "A strong earnings season can't head off the 'earnings recession' With 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported first quarter results so far, earnings for companies in the sector are down 2.5% from last year. After a 4.6% drop in earnings in the fourth quarter of 2022, this will likely mark the second-straight quarter of earnings declines for the biggest companies in the market. Still, this confirmation of a so-called "earnings recession" has plenty of silver linings. Data from FactSet published Friday showed 78% of companies that have reported results so far have reported earnings that beat expectations, a higher percentage than the 10-year average of 73% and the most since the third quarter of 2021. Ahead of first quarter earnings season, expectations were for a drop of 6.8% earnings from the same period last year. Across the economic and corporate world, the predominating theme in recent weeks has been "resilience," with growth, the labor market, and profits all coming in better than feared.' MY COMMENT YES......WAY BETTER than predicted by all the experts. BUT......the sky is falling. This data is with 92% of all SP500 companies having reported. So it reflects the vast majority of earnings this time around.
You have got to LOVE grouchy old Charlie Munger.....he is not afraid to say what he thinks. Charlie Munger Says Most Money Managers Are Little More Than Fortune Tellers, and Data Backs Him Up — 79% of Fund Managers Underperformed https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-says-most-money-172952040.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Charlie Munger, the 99-year-old billionaire and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is not one to hold back his opinions. In the last couple of years, he has taken aim at Bitcoin, labeled stock brokerages as “gambling parlors,” and compared meme stock traders to heroin addicts. And in a recent interview with the Financial Times, he did not shy away from criticizing his own industry, claiming that investment managers are nothing more than “fortune tellers or astrologers who are dragging money out of their clients' accounts.” Munger, who has spent 45 years as Warren Buffett’s right-hand man, acknowledged that Berkshire Hathaway’s success largely resulted from favorable market conditions during his tenure. But he cautioned that today’s investment managers face a much more challenging environment, with stubborn inflation, higher interest rates and rising competition making it difficult to achieve past returns. “It's gotten very tough to have anything like the returns that were obtained in the past,” Munger said. “At the exact time that the game is getting tougher, we've got more and more people trying to play it.” Munger also warned of trouble for banks because of the ailing commercial real estate sector, which could put further pressure on investment managers. He did note that the situation is not as dire as it was during the 2008 financial crisis. Munger and Buffett have long argued that financial advisers, hedge fund managers and other money managers aren’t worth the fees they charge, dubbing them “financial helpers.” A recent S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) scorecard delivered another blow to actively managed funds, revealing that 79% of fund managers underperformed their respective benchmarks in 2022. This marks a significant increase from just a decade ago when the figure was 42%, demonstrating the continued challenges faced by the active management industry. Munger’s criticism had been especially pointed during the pandemic, as meme stock trading and risky investing had reached new heights. As always, Munger’s words carry weight in the financial world, and his latest critiques may prompt some to rethink their investment strategies."..... MY COMMENT Is competence a lost "art"? How do you explain a drop from 42% of money managers under-performing a decade ago and NOW the figure is 79%? Do you think the average investor is even aware of this? I doubt it. Is the internet making us any smarter? I doubt it. I love that term "financial helpers". BUT....even that sarcastic term is probably way to generous.
