The Long Term Investor

I am already looking forward to my upcoming Social Security cost of living raise this year. I have been figuring about 3% for a while now. My goal for a few years has been for our (my wife and I) Social Security to hit $50,000 per year. I am thinking that with a 3% raise this will be the year that it happens. The raise for 2024 will be based on the inflation numbers for July, August, and September. The raise will be announced in early October.

Social Security cost-of-living adjustment could be 3.1% for 2024, according to early estimate

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/soc...ustment-could-be-3point1percent-for-2024.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Social Security beneficiaries saw the biggest cost-of-living adjustment in 40 years for 2023.
• But as inflation subsides, next year’s benefit increase may not be as generous, a new estimate finds.

New government data shows inflation is cooling, and that means Social Security beneficiaries will likely see a lower cost-of-living adjustment next year.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2024 could be 3.1%, according to a new estimate from The Senior Citizens League. That’s well below the 8.7% increase to benefits beneficiaries saw this year, which was the highest bump in four decades.

The new estimate comes as new consumer price index data shows inflation rose 4.9% over the past year as of April and 0.4% for the month — fueling hopes that the rise in the cost of living will continue to slow.

The subset of the data used to calculate the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustments — called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — rose 4.6% over the past 12 months and 0.6% for the month based on the April data.

The 3.1% estimate for the cost-of-living adjustment is preliminary and subject to change, said Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League.

The Social Security Administration determines the annual cost-of-living adjustment based on third-quarter CPI-W data for July, August and September. The adjustment is based on percentage increase for the third quarter from one year to the next. If there is no increase, the adjustment is zero.

Benefits’ buying power dropped 36% since 2000

The Senior Citizens League also evaluated how well Social Security benefits have kept up with rising costs and found they have fallen short.

Over the past year amid persistent high inflation, eggs were the fastest-growing cost for seniors, based on the group’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data through February. Other categories that landed in the top five fastest growing costs include apples, bread, coffee and dental visits.

Since 2000, Social Security benefits have lost 36% of their buying power, according to The Senior Citizens League’s calculations.

To be able to live as well on Social Security benefits as beneficiaries did in 2000, today’s retirees would need an extra $516.70 per month, the nonpartisan senior group found.

The updated analysis of the loss in buying power — measured from January 2000 through February 2023 — improved from a 40% decline found in last year’s study. Yet the slightly improved 36% loss in buying power is still one of the deepest losses recorded, according to the group’s analysis.

Eggs also topped the list of fastest-growing costs for seniors since 2000. Other categories in the top five include prescription drugs, heating oil, dental services and Medicare Part B premiums.

One caveat to a record high cost-of-living adjustment this year is the extra money — estimated to be more than $140 per month — may help prompt higher levels of spending among older Americans, according to research from Bank of America Institute.

While higher spending may complicate the fight against higher inflation, it is delayed relief for older Americans, whose cost-of-living adjustment was lower than price growth in 2022.

“The average retiree has found living with these high rates of inflation extremely difficult,” David Tinsley, senior economist at Bank of America Institute, previously told CNBC.com."

MY COMMENT

The one negative that I have from retiring at age 49 is the impact on my Social Security. I did have business income coming in after I retired for a while......but my ACTIVE time as a business owner was only about 22 years. I did have more than 35 years of earnings to calculate Social Security.....but some of them were very early High School jobs and college jobs.

Over the past ten years i have been able to get rid of most of those early, very low years, since I have continued to pay into Social Security with my self employed music income.

I held off taking my Social Security till full retirement age.

 

Have a GREAT weekend everyone. HAPPY MOTHERS DAY to any on here that are moms. My wife and I are now motherless. The last of our two mothers died some time ago (2018).....it is amazing how time flies by.

 

I have a company reporting earnings this coming week.......HD.

Retail sales and superstore earnings: What to know this week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...arnings-what-to-know-this-week-131227288.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Monthly retail sales and quarterly results from the likes of Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) will provide a detailed update on the state of the consumer in the week ahead as investors also keep a close watch on debt ceiling developments out of Washington.

Retail sales and quarterly earnings from Home Depot (HD) Tuesday morning will set the tone for a crowded week of updates on consumer spending trends.

After falling 1% on a monthly basis in March, retail sales are expected to grow by 0.8% in April, per Bloomberg data. The busy week of retail earnings will also include results from Target and TJX (TJX) on Wednesday, with Walmart and Alibaba (BABA) reporting Thursday.

Outside retail numbers and housing data headlined by existing home sales and homebuilder sentiment, the week will be relatively quiet on the economic data front.

In Washington, D.C., debt ceiling deliberations between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are expected to continue early in the week as the government approaches the so-called "X-date" when the government would run out of borrowing capacity.

Elsewhere in Washington, former top executives at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are expected to testify before the Senate on Tuesday.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished last week lower despite inflation rising at its slowest annual rate in 2 years. Weak consumer sentiment and ongoing banking concerns pushed stocks lower into the weekend.

Year to date, the Nasdaq is up more than 17%, while the S&P 500 has risen 7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is clinging to gains just below 0.5% on the year.

Trade downs from higher income consumers, inventory levels, and current-quarter trends will be the focus for investors during retail earnings reports this week. At Target, analysts are projecting same-store sales rose 1.25% during the first quarter; at Walmart, same-store sales are expected to have risen 5%, according to data from Bloomberg.

Foot traffic was down across superstores in March and April, according to data from Placer.ai, and Wall Street analysts expect that to show up in this week's results.

"As we head into earnings, we believe WMT is one of the best positioned in our coverage and our data checks support our view," analysts at Jefferies wrote in a note to clients. "For TGT, we are lowering our Q1 and FY comp [estimates] as we see some potential weakness."

Investors will be focused not only on how companies began the year but also what management teams say about consumer trends in the current quarter, particularly after the nation's largest online retailer already warned of a slowdown.

"The uncertain economic environment and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to be a factor and we believe, is continuing to drive cautious spending across consumers," Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said on the company's earnings call last month. "This means our customers are looking to stretch their budgets further, and are focused on value."

Data from Bank of America last week also signaled a slowdown, with total retail excluding auto spending down 2.3% on yearly basis according to the firm's credit card data.

"We expect a benefit from trade-down will occur this year as inflationary pressures persist, especially given rising unemployment among the higher-income cohort," Bank of America's data analytics team wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

Broadly, first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are beating expectations at their highest rate since the third quarter of 2021, according to FactSet. But investors have not been quick to reward these reports.

On average, companies that report earnings that beat expectations have seen their stock increase an average of 0.3% in the period covering the two days before and two days after an earnings report. That’s well below the five-year average price increase of 1% for shares of companies that beat estimates over the same period.


S&P 500 companies' stocks aren't reacting as positively to earnings beats in the first quarter as normal.
Since the start of first-quarter earnings season, the S&P 500 is largely unchanged — the index entered bank earnings at 4,146 and closed at 4,124 on Friday.

"There's a lot to unpack right now," Jack Manley, global market strategist at J.P.Morgan Asset Management told Yahoo Finance Live last week.

"There's a lot to digest right now. And without any sort of real clarity on these things, it's hard for markets to meaningfully move higher or lower, right? It's all markets really want at the end of the day, is news. And no news is bad news.""

MY COMMENT

The markets are NOT rewarding great earnings because they are simply DUMB money at this point. Many investors are either confused or exhausted or both. they are siting on the sidelines doing nothing because they are overwhelmed by all the media coverage of irrelevant data and story-lines. they are not focusing on thge only thing that counts.....actual business.

My take is we are finally at the end of the supply chain distortions that Covid and the economic shut-down caused. We are finally seeing more normal business conditions....with the exception of the extremely distorted employment data and employee behavior.

 

I like this little article......since I dont believe there will be a recession.

Recession? Here's why top industrial CEOs are super bullish on the economy

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rece...e-super-bullish-on-the-economy-134443460.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"What U.S. recession?

The industrial economy is on solid footing and activity is expected to pick up later this year, top CEOs in the space exclusively told Yahoo Finance at the Goldman Sachs Industrial and Materials conference this week.

“Super bullish,” Goldman Sachs analyst Joe Ritchie told Yahoo Finance when asked to sum up the vibe at the two-day event in New York City. “We are at the start of a very significant infrastructure build in the U.S. Some might call it a U.S. manufacturing renaissance.”

Several big catalysts are on the horizon for the industrials patch, people at the event told Yahoo! Finance.

The first is unprecedented investment by the government in the form of the new Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). And the other are re-shoring initiatives — notably the Chips and Science Act — that are targeted to boost domestic output by strengthening the labor market.

These factors appear to already be driving a rebound in the fortunes of industrials in the second quarter.

“Demand from our larger customers is picking up,” Clean Harbors (CLH) co-CEO Michael Battles told us. Clean Harbors is a waste management firm that services the majority of the Fortune 500.

Added Battles: “They’re doing more production in North America… and we’re seeing that volume come into our network.”

The CEO of truck broker RXO (RXO) Drew Wilkerson sees a similar type of demand bounce unfolding.

“It's a tough macroeconomic environment right now. … But there are reasons for optimism in the back half of the year,” Wilkerson said.

Wilkerson added: “Retail and e-commerce customers are talking about how their inventory is restocked and we have to get orders out to the end consumers."

These green shoots come as the U.S. economy is fresh off meager 1.1% annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the first quarter. In 2022, GDP expanded 2.1%.

If you take a look at the price action in the industrial complex, some investors have begun to position for the no-recession scenario. The emphasis being on some investors.

Year to date, Clean Harbors stock has soared 22% on the back of a string of solid quarterly results, while RXO is up a not-too-shabby 11%.

And after four consecutive weeks of outflows, the industrial sector recorded its first inflows in more than a month according to new data out of Bank of America.

The closely watched Dow Transportation Average (^DJT) tells a little different story, however.

The transportation gauge — which is viewed by many as a leading indicator for the state of the U.S. economy given the 20-stock index is comprised of airline, trucking, railroad and delivery stocks — has underperformed the broader market over the past six months amid slowing economic growth and recession fears. It has tanked more than 5% compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average's drop of nearly 2%.

Big-name industrials such as Caterpillar (CAT) and John Deere (DE) are each down by more than 10% in the past six months.

But if you're willing to brush those warning signs aside and bet on an under-the-radar industrial renaissance, there are opportunities.

Go with industrial powerhouses that play in smart infrastructure such as Johnson Controls (JCI), Goldman's Ritchie says.

He makes the case that supply chain pressures are easing, and it’s having a "really powerful impact on growth.”

MY COMMENT

Industrials are starting to boom. We are also likely to see a tech BOOM with all the AI spending and usage in every tech product imaginable. The supply chain issues are mostly over with. In the REAL business world things are improving nicely for the economy.

At this point I just dont see a recession happening. I also still DO NOT see the FED reducing rates this year. In other words the push behind both of these views is WRONG.......no recession and no rate cuts. The earnings fear mongering was also WRONG......as was the doom and gloom opinions about a bank crisis. NO DOUBT.......the current HYPE on the debt ceiling....is also TOTALLY over-blown.

See a pattern here? YES.......the obsession for clicks is completely distorting the short term investing environment with scary bedtime stories. If you are a true long term investor you dont care......you just ignore it all. It is just SILLY.

 

The POWER of long term investing.......if you can stand the heat and stay in the kitchen. (Although this is just a single example over a very specific time period)

Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/05/roughly-right-or-precisely-wrong/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"I have a love-hate relationship with historical market data.

On the one hand, since we can’t predict the future, calculating probabilities from the past in the context of the present situation is our only hope when it comes to setting expectations for financial markets.

On the other hand, an overemphasis on historical data can lead to overconfidence if makes you believe that backtests can be treated as gospel.

In some ways markets are predictable in that human nature is the one constant across all environments. This is why the pendulum is constantly swinging from manias to panics.

In other ways markets are unpredictable because stuff that has never happened before seems to happen all the time.

I like the old saying that I would rather be roughly right than precisely wrong.

Historical market data doesn’t tell you what’s going to happen when it comes to investment outcomes but it can help you understand a wider range of potential risks.

It can also show you the magic of compounding when it comes to the stock market if you get too caught up on the risk side of the equation.

YCharts has a tool called Scenario Builder that allows you to look at the impact of investments, contributions and withdrawals on different holdings and asset allocations over time.

Here’s a simple one:

Let’s say you put $5,000 into the initial S&P 500 ETF (SPY) right around when it started at the beginning of 1994. On top of that you also contribute $500/month into the fund.

Simple right?

Here’s what this scenario looks like:


Not bad.

This is the summary:

• Initial investment (start of 1994): $5,000
• Monthly investment: $500
• Total investments: $181,000
• Ending balance (April 2023): $915,886

Plenty of volatility along the way but this simple dollar cost averaging strategy would have left you with a lot more money than you initially put into it.

Even though things worked out swimmingly by the end of this scenario there were some dark days along the way.

You can see on the chart where the purple line dips below the blue line in 2009 by the end of the stock market crash from the Great Financial Crisis.

By March of 2009 you would have made $96,000 in contributions with an ending market value of a little more than $94,000.

So that’s more than a decade-and-a-half of investing where you ended up underwater.

It wasn’t prudent but I understand why so many investors threw in the towel in 2008 and 2009. Things were bleak.

Everything worked out phenomenally if you stuck with it but investing in stocks can be painful at times.

A lost decade sandwiched between two bull markets with a sprinkle of a bear market toward the end worked out nicely using these assumptions.

Just for fun, let’s reverse this scenario to see what would happen if you started out in 1994 with the same ending balance but now you’re taking portfolio distributions.

Like this:

• Initial balance (start of 1994): $915,886
• Annual portfolio withdrawal: 4% of portfolio value

I know this isn’t exactly the 4% rule since the 4% rule assumes you set the initial draw at 4% and then increase that amount by some inflation rate. But we’re just having fun here to see how things look using different assumptions.

Here’s the chart:


An ending balance of more than $4 million while spending $1.7 million along the way from a starting point of a little less than $1 million is pretty, pretty good.

The usual caveats apply here — past performance says nothing about future performance, no one actually invests in a straight line like this, no one invests in a single fund like this, no one uses this type of withdrawal strategy in retirement nor do they invest 100% in stocks while doing so, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

But I do like the idea of trying things on for size when it comes to stuff like this.

Life never works out like a spreadsheet or retirement calculator or scenario analysis tool.

Things change. People make or spend more or less money. Markets, contributions or withdrawals never occur in a linear fashion.

Life is lumpy. Finances change. Risk appetite evolves. Things become complicated.

But it’s not a bad idea to map things out a little when it comes to your portfolio, budget, savings, spending or anything in between.

The future never turns out exactly like you think it will but there is nothing wrong with setting some goalposts and then performing course corrections along the way as reality comes in better or worse than expected."

MY COMMENT

These are very specific examples and time period. BUT......this does show the power of compounding and long term investing. the KEY......you have to have time and patience and you have to stay in the broad market for the long term and let compounding happen.

I do like the fact that these examples use the SP500 as the single investment. I view the SP500 as the greatest single average for the typical retail investor. The greatest 500+ companies in the world.

 

So......as I have been reading and typing the markets have opened and are presently in the red. A typical open lately with NO clear cut view of where we might close.

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING......is happening this week. Some big cap retail earnings.....that is about it.

 

OK......

Fed’s Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there’s a recession

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/15/fed...uts-this-year-even-if-theres-a-recession.html

MY COMMENT

How in the world can there be a single person that actually believes that the FED is going to cut rates this year. Yet this line continues to be spouted over, and over, and over. the FED has been very clear they are NOT going to cut rates this year.

Sure.....there might be some extreme, slight chance, of extreme economic conditions that could make rate cuts happen in 2023. BUT......the odds of this sort of event happening are nearly.......ZERO.

Anyone that is betting on rate cuts is delusional. BUT.....apparently there are people out there that have some reason to continuously push this topic. Long term investors......BEWARE......this is irrelevant to any longer term investor and is simply not an accurate take on the economy or the FED.

 

I like this little article.

Inflation fears from Corporate America are falling fast

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...orate-america-are-falling-fast-121830942.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway-owned (BRK-A, BRK-B) See's Candies is finally seeing some relief on the prices that help bring the brand's storied chocolate to market.

"Sugar has more than doubled [in price]. Sugar is more expensive in the United States of America than any other place on the planet. It's a price-controlled kind of a scheme. Butter is up over 100% in the last year," explained See's Candies CEO Pat Egan on Yahoo! Finance Live (video above). "I believe that we're actually, I hope, at the peak of that."

Egan isn't alone in the C-suite community in breathing a sigh of relief on inflation after a brutal two-year stretch.

Of all the S&P 500 companies that reported first quarter earnings from March 15 to May 11, new FactSet research found that 278 called out "inflation" on their earnings calls. While this is above the five-year average of 211, the number is the lowest among S&P 500 companies going back to the second quarter of 2021.

It also represents the third consecutive quarter in which the number of S&P 500 companies citing the term "inflation" has declined on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

By sector, financials and industrials boast the highest number of companies citing inflation on earnings calls for the first quarter. The fewest number of inflation mentions have come from communication services and utilities.

While top execs may be feeling better about the inflation outlook, mixed reads on prices of late still have Wall Street worried.


Execs breathe a sigh of relief on inflation.
April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 4.9% year over year, the lowest level since April 2021, as prices for food cooled. The headline increased represented a steep deceleration from the 9.1% peak hit last June.

But prices continued to hold above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal.

And "super core" inflation — which strips out food, energy and shelter —saw a 0.4% increase in April. That was a faster pace than the 0.3% increase in the measure in March.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April showed a year over year increase of 2.3%. Similar to the CPI, it was the slowest annual increase since 2021.

The mixed reads have ignited concerns that the Fed could stay the course with interest rate hikes, surprising a stock market positioned for a pause.

"Inflation's been higher than we want it, but let's try to stabilize the prices without generating any unnecessary recession," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger.

See's Candies CEO Egan has been forced to raise prices on consumers during the inflationary outburst.

"Certainly we've raised prices. Every business has to. We have to cover our costs. And our ingredients cost, as an example, have gone up 30% year over year. So we have to make sure that we're covering that and labor costs," Egan said.

But with inflation moderating, maybe that box of chocolate is a few dollars cheaper come the Berkshire annual meeting in May 2024."

MY COMMENT

There are a number of past articles in here about how the ridiculous 2% inflation target used by the FED has absolutely NO relationship to anything. It is a MADE UP number that is meaningless.

NOW......if you use actual data......we are getting close to the actual NORMAL range for inflation.......3-4%.

Business is seeing this and responding with more positive future guidance in general. Now......on the topic of whether we are now in a pause by the FED. It will be an EPIC, HISTORIC, MISTAKE if the FED does not pause. I have seen some commentary that they might do a hike in June......or......they might pause for June and than do a hike at the next meeting after June.

I dont put anything past the IDIOTS at the FED.....but I have to hope they are not this DUMB.

HOWEVER......even if inflation is now under control.....I would not count on business, especially small business.....reducing prices any time soon. The new higher prices on everything are probably here to stay.

 

HERE are the markets today.

Stocks waver amid debt-limit hopes: Stock market news today

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-may-15-115315911.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks were mixed on Monday as investors hoped that lawmakers can reach a deal in the debt-ceiling standoff.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked below the flatline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.23%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) edged up 0.17% at 9:38 am ET.

The ticking bomb of a potential debt default by the US government is front and center for investors again this week. President Joe Biden, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders are planning to meet Tuesday to resume budget negotiations after postponing talks set for Friday.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the discussions are making progress, The Wall Street Journal reported. She plans to meet senior bankers to discuss the debt limit.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank has set up a “war room” looking at contingencies if the debt limit isn't raised in time. Dimon has already warned that markets will be gripped by panic as the US approaches a possible default on its sovereign debt.

Some bearish voices on Wall Street, including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, have warned that the debt-limit debate could trigger sharp swings in the equity market.

Most clients “believe it will ultimately get resolved, but not without some near-term volatility,” Wilson wrote in a note.

Government bond yields were higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury traded up to 3.5%, while yields on the two-year note was little changed. The dollar index edged down following a 1.45% rally last week, its strongest one-week gain since late September of 2022, according to JPMorgan.

Elsewhere, in Washington, former executives from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are expected to testify before the Senate on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, earnings season continues with notable companies set to report, including retailers Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD). China’s tech giants Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY) are also on the docket this week.

Wall Street’s calendar includes monthly retail sales out Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the headline print to grow 0.8% in April, up from a 1% drop last month. Some strategists argue that headline figures will likely be boosted by strong auto sales in the month, providing more insight on the state of the consumer.

In single stock moves, Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. (MMP) shares rallied over 13% Monday after pipeline operator ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) agreed Sunday to buy smaller rival Magellan Midstream Partners for about $18.8 billion including debt, forming the second-largest U.S.-based pipeline company by stock-market value.

Shares of SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) sank more than 7% after the financial services company got a downgrade as Wall Street remains unsure about the stock. SoFi could be “nearing a tipping point” on the fee income it recognizes from loan applications and sales, warning the fee income could decline significantly, Wedbush analysts said."

MY COMMENT

Apparently.....the best fear mongering topic at the moment is the risk of a USA default. This is LUNACY. How many times can people take this baloney by the politicians? We have all lived through this stuff many times over the years.

The comments by Dimon above.....total BS. I see Dimon quoted on nearly every issue....every day. He certainly has a big soap-box......but....he is simply often WRONG. Of course he does love the volatility for short term traders and his own business purposes. He would not be making these statements if they did not benefit him.

As usual.....IGNORE it all.

 

AND.....as has been typical lately.....we are in a tenuous open today with the markets bouncing between red and green......at least in the NASDAQ. Where we end the day......who knows......and....who cares.

 

Right Smokie. It is really very simple.......no complex math, no formulas, no obscure charts and technical analysis, no day to day trading........simply put your money into the SP500 and add to it as much as possible, preferably every month......and....BINGO.

I put my kids money where my mouth is......I have one of my kids and their spouse doing $500 each.....$1000 per month.....into a SP500 Index ETF. I tell them over and over.....that is ALL they need to do. Of course they both are vested in a government pension system that will pay them big time when they retire.

They also know if they save up some extra money or get a payment from somewhere.....to just throw it into the same SP500 ETF and let it sit for the long run.

It really is very SIMPLE.....as long as you have time on your side. If you are pushing retirement age or are in retirement.....than it gets a little more complex. It is CRITICAL that people start to save and invest at a young age......having that TIME on your side to compound your money and double it 5-8 times over a lifetime.....is a real game changer.

 

I can tell that the markets are extremely SHALLOW today. At least in my account......every stock is barley moving....either red or green. I currently have 7 of 10 stocks down today....but all are very slight. Same with my three stocks that are UP today.....HON, NVDA, and MSFT.....all are very slightly green. Basically a FLAT market for my particular account at this moment.

 

You said it Smokie.

One of my kids is married to a Financial Consultant. About 95% of their job is simply hand holding. Talking people down from all the fear and panic that is rampant every day now.

I really dont see this constant media environment of fear and panic ever changing. In fact......I think it will continue to escalate and get worse. The problem will be.......when or if......it gets so bad that it starts to distort even the long term returns.

I can visualize a time in 10-25 years where the ability of anyone to invest.....even for the long term....is impaired by all the constant disinformation and HYPE. I dont fear a financial based market collapse killing our markets.......but.....I do fear HYPE and DISINFORMATION.......along with our educational system continuing to collapse......killing the markets for good.

Our stock markets as an institution.......are NOT as ROBUST as people think.....neither is our free market system or even our basic system of government. All through history we have seen similar institutions and governments collapse. There is no reason to think we will be any different over the long run. I dont underestimate the ability of future generations to throw away everything that has made America a great country. Once the magic is gone......it never comes back.

Fortunately......or unfortunately......once the systems that have made this country great collapse or are replaced......it only takes the death of the old generation before no one remembers how it......"USED TO BE".

 

Speaking of MAGIC......I see that all the averages are GREEN at this specific moment. WHOOPS.....lost it already as the DOW just turned slightly red.

A drifting....meaningless...market today.

 

I like this little article. Not that I think this is being caused by inflation......it looks more like simple human nature to me........and......the addiction to free government money causing people to want to spend more than they have.

Credit card debt set to hit $1T as chronic inflation crushes Americans
Household debt likely hit record $1T at beginning of 2023

https://www.foxbusiness.com/persona...t-set-hit-chronic-inflation-crushes-americans

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


"Americans are drowning in credit card debt as chronic inflation makes the cost of everyday necessities more expensive.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank's Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, slated for release on Monday morning, is expected to show that credit card debt soared to a historic $1 trillion in the first three months of 2023, according to LendingTree. That will smash the previous high of $986 billion.

"I think it’s fairly clear that what we’re seeing now is becoming more and more about people struggling in the face of ongoing inflation and seemingly constant rising interest rates," Matt Schulz, the chief LendingTree credit analyst, told FOX Business. "It's a tough time."

The $1 trillion figure would mark a major reversal from just three years ago when households were rapidly paying off credit card debt with the stimulus payments they received during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rise in credit card usage and debt is particularly concerning because interest rates are astronomically high right now. The average credit card annual percentage rate, or APR, hit a new record of 20.33% last week, according to a Bankrate database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991.

If people are carrying debt to compensate for steeper prices, they could end up paying more for items in the long run. For instance, if you owe $5,000 in debt – which the average American does – current APR levels would mean it would take about 277 months and $7,723 in interest to pay off the debt making the minimum payments.

"It's been a really rough year for credit card holders," Schulz said. "Even though the Fed seems to be taking their foot off the gas with interest rates, the unfortunate reality is credit card holders shouldn’t expect things to get a ton better anytime terribly soon, just because interest rates aren’t going down anytime soon."

Scorching-hot inflation has created severe financial pressures for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. The burden is disproportionately borne by low-income Americans, whose already-stretched paychecks are heavily affected by price fluctuations.

And while inflation has fallen from a peak of 9.1%, it remains uncomfortably high: The Labor Department reported last week that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in April from the previous month, much faster than the 0.1% increase recorded in March.

Prices climbed 4.9% on an annual basis, more than double the pre-pandemic average.

"People really need to make sure that they are doing what they can do to knock down their credit card debt and other high-interest debt to make sure that they are protecting themselves for the future as much as possible," Schulz said."

MY COMMENT

A very unfortunate situation. I dont see any impact from this since we are debt free. My sibling is also debt free. My kids are relatively debt free....although they each have a house mortgage which is family held.

I have had a lifetime of debt aversion. I attribute much of this aversion to being a small business owner for most of my work life. As a business owner I financed my business using my personal assets. Therefore....having non-business debt was something that I strictly avoided. It would have made it much more difficult for me to finance and run my business if i also had a bunch of personal non-business debt that was impairing and complicating my money needs.