The Long Term Investor

The markets have been open for about an hour and forty five minutes. I have seen siting, reading, and typing. I just realized that I have not looked at the averages a single time so far today.

It is a MEANINGLESS and WORTHLESS market today and until the DEBT "stuff" is done. We have another 7-8 days of this BALONEY......minimum.

 

I must say.....the markets are now the most EXTREMELY OBSESSIVE with short term events, drama, and "stuff" that I have ever seen in a lifetime of investing.

This has been a slow and steady move over many, many, years. There is now virtually NO longer term analysis or considerations in terms of the day to day markets. Welcome to the modern world of........investing? Is this investing at all? I dont think so.

This is all just a speculative.....soap opera. It is a massive deterioration from what and how investing used to be covered by the day to day, week to week, and month to month financial media. I guess it is an extension of society in general.

 

I just looked......of course I have a medium level LOSS today as expected. My single stock that is UP at the moment is.....AMZN.

ALL......market reason and rationality..........has now been totally subsumed by the obsessive focus on the DEBT non-issue. A made up crisis.

As a result of this and what I posted above......we are now in a time period where the ONLY rational way to invest is for the very long term. The short to medium terms are now worthless. This ever expanding and creeping financial insanity is now the norm.

I expect that this will only get worse over the coming years. There is NO investing mentality to speak of anymore in terms of the media coverage or the financial experts. The entire focus is on "trading" and attempting to make a short term killing. People have no PATIENCE. People have no knowledge or reference point to know or understand anything different.

I am very happy to be part of the.....old generation......as an investor. A remnant of the past. It is refreshing and somewhat shocking to see and hear some older person on the financial media talking in the old investing terms and terminology.

Will this IRRATIONALITY continue to spread? Will it spread to even the longer term? I dont know. All I know is as long as I can make good money using my long term investing strategies and habits....I will continue to do so.

I am willing to go against the flow.....for as long as possible. It takes GUTS and the ability to see clinical reality to go against this trend. of course at some point it will be the......SANE PERSON....that is seen as insane.

I can see in about 30-50 years we will have some media talking head noting that the last long term investor has died. It will be like the news stories you see about the last WWII veteran having died.

Human behavior is so predictable and simplistic. It never changes.

At age 73......well.....not my problem........and:

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

My account results today seem a little strange.

YES.....I had a loss today....that part is not odd. BUT......I beat the SP500 by 0.34%.....with ONLY two stocks in the green today.....AAPL and AMZN. All the other eight of my companies were red.

I guess the SP500 had more broad based losses than I did today. Before I looked I was pretty sure I was not going to beat the SP500 today. My loss today was in the "moderate" category.

 

HERE are the NVIDIA earnings that were reported today.

NVIDIA earnings beat by $0.17, revenue topped estimates

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...-beat-by-017-revenue-topped-estimates-3090223

"Investing.com - NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported first quarter EPS of $1.09, $0.17 better than the analyst estimate of $0.92. Revenue for the quarter came in at $7.19B versus the consensus estimate of $6.52B.

Guidance

NVIDIA sees Q2 2024 revenue of $11.00B versus the analyst consensus of $7.15B.

NVIDIA's stock price closed at $305.38. It is up 31.14% in the last 3 months and up 79.90% in the last 12 months.

NVIDIA saw 21 positive EPS revisions and 6 negative EPS revisions in the last 90 days. See NVIDIA's stock price’s past reactions to earnings here.

According to InvestingPro, NVIDIA's Financial Health score is "good performance"."

MY COMMENT

Very tentative info.....but looks good so far.

 

HERE is more info.....a BIG BEAT.

Nvidia shares spike 15% on huge forecast beat driven by A.I. chip demand

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/24/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q1-2024.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Nvidia reported first-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2024 on Wednesday, with a stronger-than-expected forecast that drove shares up 15% in extended trading.

Nvidia reported first-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2024 on Wednesday, with a stronger-than-expected forecast that drove shares up 15% in extended trading.

Here’s how the company did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates for the quarter ending in April:

• EPS: $1.09, adjusted, versus $0.92 expected
• Revenue: $7.19 billion, versus $6.52 billion expected

Net income for the quarter was $2.04 billion, versus $1.61 billion from the same period last year.

Nvidia said it expected $0.82 per share on about $11 billion in revenue, far surpassing Refinitiv expectations of $1.06 per share on $7.15 billion in sales.

Nvidia’s gaming division, which includes the company’s graphics cards for PC sales, reported $2.24 billion in sales, versus expectations of $1.98 billion, although overall revenue for the category was down 38% on an annual basis.

Nvidia’s datacenter group, however, reported $4.28 billion in sales, versus expectations of $3.9 billion, a 14% annual increase. Nvidia said that the company’s performance was driven by demand for the company’s GPU chips, which are used to train and deploy generative AI applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Nvidia stock is up over 113% so far in 2023, mostly driven by optimism stemming from the company’s leading position in the market for AI chips."

MY COMMENT

This is a MONSTER BEAT. I had been seeing articles all day that were speculating that they might actually not do so well.

So much for the usual BS. this company just proved....big time....that they are the monster of the chip world and the real deal.

What I like the most about this company is their GREAT MANAGEMENT.....that is what it is all about for the long term.

 

And just to RUB IT IN.

Nvidia Q1 earnings: AI powers beats on the top and bottom line

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-q1-earnings-173926383.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia (NVDA) reported its fiscal first quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom line on the strength of its data center business. The company also said it expects Q2 revenue to come in at about $11 billion, plus or minus 2%. Wall Street was expecting $7.2 billion.

Nvidia is at the center of the AI explosion thanks to its high-powered graphics cards and server products, and its stock price is soaring. Over the last year, shares of Nvidia have jumped 77%, while rival AMD (AMD) has jumped 12%. Intel (INTC) shares are down 30% in the same timeframe.

Here are the most important numbers from the report compared to what was expected, as compiled by Bloomberg.

• Revenue: $7.2 billion versus $6.5 billion expected
  
• Adj. EPS: $1.09 versus $0.92 expected
  
• Gaming: $2.2 billion versus $1.9 billion expected
  
• Data center: $4.2 billion versus $3.9 billion expected
  

Shares of Nvidia were up more than 13% following the announcement.

“The computer industry is going through two simultaneous transitions — accelerated computing and generative AI,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement.

“A trillion dollars of installed global data center infrastructure will transition from general purpose to accelerated computing as companies race to apply generative AI into every product, service and business process."

While shares of Nvidia are riding the AI wave, thanks to the introduction of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft (MSFT) and Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) own generative AI efforts, the company is still contending with a viscous slowdown in the gaming industry.

Much of that has to do with the broader downturn in consumer spending on electronics following the explosive growth the industry experienced during the pandemic. With nothing to do but sit at home, consumers bought up graphics cards and similarly equipped PCs to pass the time.

Now that gamers have those systems in their hands, however, there’s little reason to upgrade anytime soon. Intel and AMD are experiencing the same kind of problems with their own client computing groups.

But the slowdown should be coming to an end soon. Wall Street expects Nvidia to post revenue growth in its gaming business for the first time in a year in Q2, according to Bloomberg data. That would go a long way to helping Nvidia’s overall revenue growth after a third consecutive quarter-over-quarter decline as of Q1.

That said, Nvidia’s data center business continues to perform, with the company reporting 14% revenue growth for the quarter."

MY COMMENT

I am calling this a MONSTER BEAT. Gaming is not an issue....it will take care of itself as time plays out.

This is a really nice way to celebrate the final week of earnings.

There will be SOME MONEY to be made TOMORROW in this stock.

 

Tomorrow I get my final earnings report.....COSTCO.

This earnings season has been a really nice surprise to the upside.....at least based on the so called expectations of the experts.

YES.....we really are in a new BULL MARKET......and have been for nearly a year now.

 

That posting by SMOKIE has lots, and lots of good data if you want way more detail.

 

It should be a FUN DAY tomorrow. These NVDA earnings have the potential to ENERGIZE the markets in general and particularly the SP500 and the NASDAQ.

It will be fun waiting for the markets to open tomorrow. NVIDIA is currently up by $26.07%....or.....$79.62 in the after hours trading. I doubt that this will stick in the real market hours tomorrow.....but ....a big chunk of it could and probably will.

It has been kind of a dull, boring, and irritating few weeks in the markets. Even though I have made money and improved my YTD.....it was just not a very fun or interesting market time span. The next couple of days are going to be all about why investing.....even long term investing....."IS" interesting and fun.

I was looking at the account of my sibling which I manage. It has the same portfolio of ten stocks and two funds like the portfolio that I use for data on here. I run all the portfolios that I handle for myself and family exactly the same way. BUT.......this sibling who had crappy income in working......now......has big income in retirement. SO...I am having them add over $7000 a month to the SP500 Index Fund that is one of the two funds in their account.

Because the funds have been piling up in the SP500 index fund at a rate of $85,000 per year.....once in a while.....when I think I see a nice opportunity....i will take some money out of their SP500 Index Fund and add to one of the ten stocks. This is not a normal thing.....just random....... based on thinking I see a good opportunity in a great company.....one of the ten.

The last time I did this was in September 20, 2022......eight months ago. I thought there was a good opportunity in NVDA so I took $19,534 from the SP500....and.....bought shares of NVDA at $131.99 per share.

NOW.....before this earnings report those shares in eight months.....grew from $19,534....to.....$45,196. A gain of 131.37%.

If we get a BIG POP in NVDA tomorrow....that gain could easily grow to 150% to 160%.

That is the POWER of long term investing.....but.....over the short term. Once in a while if you are invested in great companies.....you might get lucky...like this gain. The trick is holding onto that gain. There are no guarantees......although i like to think that the kind of SUPERIOR companies that I hold do give me somewhat of a guarantee.

My largest loss of a gain was back in the late 1990's with CSCO. Over a short time.......a few years.....I rode my position in that stock from $25,000 up to $200,000 or more. As the dot-com crash hit I pulled back in my long term core stocks to the best of the best. I cut out most tech stocks.....but.....I considered CSCO a real company with a bright future....so i did not sell those shares. As we went into the DOT-COM CRASH....about year 2000.....I rode those shares all the way back down from over $200,000 right back to where I started at $25,000.

 

I was telling my wife about the NVDA earnings and what it could mean in my siblings account tomorrow with all the NVDA in their account. This is a BIG account....but as I said above.....I handle it the same as all my accounts. There are a good number of NVDA shares in that account.

When she heard that she....half joking said....."why do you always make them, (my sibling), so much money"

We laughed.....but I knew she was half serious. So I told her....think of it this way.....my sibling has no kids....we are their heir. If we are not alive their estate goes to our kids. So ultimately think of it this way.....I am not making money for them, (my sibling)....I am making money for our kids.

 

I am starting to get ANTSY.......I dont have a single show this week....I have the entire three day weekend off. That is rare.

At least starting next week I have a nice big string of shows coming up in June and July. Plus the threat of cold weather causing a cancellation is now over. People will be out and about. Probably about 80% of our shows are outdoors.

The flip side is we will start to see temperatures of 100 degrees or above at many of the outdoor shows.