The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I do NOT personally intend to take any profits in NVIDIA. I will retain ALL shares and let them run as they wish.

    With all the AI stuff in the news and NVIDIA now the most dominant chip/AI company in the world......I have ZERO plan to take any profits or re-balance. I want to FULLY participate in where this company is headed over the short to medium term.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW....DOUBLE WOW....that was a big day today. I had a BIG gain into the green today. Plus one of the largest beats of the SP500 that I have had in a very long time.....2.94%.

    ALL this in spite of the fact that I had three stocks down today.....AMZN, NKE and HD.

    The star of the day.....NVIDIA....was up today by $74.43 per share......a gain of 24.37% in one day.
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    DEBT CEILING.....who cares....a totally PHONY issue for investors. Here is the day today.....as if I care considering the AMAZING close.

    Nasdaq surges as Nvidia soars: Stock market news today

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasd...s-soar-stock-market-news-today-115101195.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks were mixed on Thursday as outsized gains from Nvidia (NVDA) catapulted a tech rally while debt ceiling concerns continued to hang over markets.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.88%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed down 0.11%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rallied 1.71%.


    Shares of Nvidia soared Thursday, rising roughly 24.37% as the tech giant's second quarter guidance shocked Wall Street to the upside. Nvidia, which has quickly become a leader in the growing artificial intelligence arms race, projected second quarter revenue of $11 billion. Analysts had expected $7.2 billion, per Bloomberg data.

    Other AI-related stocks jumped with Nvidia as Alphabet (GOOGL) gained more than 2% and Microsoft (MSFT) popped nearly 4%.

    "In 22 years of covering tech stocks and large cap we have never seen a guidance range of this magnitude on a large cap tech name," Wedbush managing director Dan Ives wrote in a note on Thursday. "And thus speaks to our thesis that the monetization of AI for stalwarts like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Apple, and Salesforce is well underway."

    Meanwhile, uncertainty around the debt ceiling is weighing on the broader market. On Wednesday night Fitch warned it might downgrade the United States' AAA credit.

    "Fitch still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the X-date," Fitch wrote in the statement. "However, we believe risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the X-date and consequently that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations."

    In other earnings news, shares of Snowflake (SNOW) fell sank 16.49% as the cloud computing company provided weaker-than-expected second quarter revenue.

    Best Buy (BBY) stock popped just more than 3% as the company reported earnings per share of $1.15. Wall Street had been expecting $1.11. The tech retailer missed the Street's revenue estimates, though, with same-store sales tumbling 10% in the quarter.

    On the economic front, jobless claims for the week ending May 20 came in lower than expected, with 229,000 claims filed. Economists had expected 245,000. A secondary reading for quarterly GDP showed the U.S. economy grew 1.3% in the first quarter. The initial print indicated 1.1% growth."

    MY COMMENT

    Fears of a downgrade of USA credit.....what a total JOKE. We are at this moment right on the edge of the resolution of the PHONY Debt Ceiling.....BALONEY.

    It is simply an insult to intelligence that a rating agency would be touting this sort of stuff.

    A KILLER day for the markets....especially for people that own the most dominant companies in the world.

    Even if you did not participate much today......and/or....do not own much in tech....this rally today and the events that are going to end soon.....the FED, Debt Ceiling, etc, etc......are going to help ALL investors that own rational and realistic businesses.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here are the COSTCO earnings today.

    Costco Q3 earnings miss estimates amid slower-than-expected sales growth
    This report comes as shares of Costco are up 5.8% year-to-date, outpacing its competitors

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-earnings-125635034.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Costco (COST) reported fiscal 2023 third-quarter earnings results Thursday after market close that missed analysts' expectations.

    Last quarter, same-stores growth slowed compared to previous quarters with people spending less, particularly on big-ticket items, amid higher grocery prices. Total sales for the quarter increased 1.9% compared to last year, to $52.60 billion.


    Here's what Costco reported, compared to Wall Street estimates, based on Bloomberg consensus data:

    • Revenue: $53.65 billion versus $54.66 billion expected
    • Adjusted earnings per share: $2.93 versus $3.30 expected
    • Same-store sales, excluding gas: up 1.8% versus 3.48% expected
      • United States: down 0.1%
      • Canada: down 1.0%
      • Other international: up 4.1%
    Its e-commerce sales also came in lower, down 10.0%. Membership fees, a key revenue stream for the wholesale retailer, brought in $1.04 billion, a tick lower than Wall Street estimates of $1.05 billion.

    The company didn't indicate it would raise membership fees in the imminent future. However, in the note, UBS Analyst Michael Lasser, who has a Buy rating on shares, said now is the right time to raise fees, despite consumer wallets' being stretched. "This will be a key focus this quarter. We think there's a good chance that COST will bump its Gold Star Membership fee by $5 and its Executive Membership fee by $10 either this quarter or next."

    Costco last raised membership prices — a Costco Gold Star membership costs $60 per year and an Executive Membership goes for $120 — in June 2017. The company typically raises prices every 5 years and seven months on average, which suggests the next hike is imminent.

    As of Wednesday, there are 27 Buys, 14 Holds and 0 Sells on shares of Costco.

    This report comes as shares of Costco are up 5.8% year-to-date, outpacing its competitors. Shares of Sam's Club's parent company Walmart (WMT) are up 3.5% so far this year, and shares of BJ's are down 2.9% after it saw Q1 same-store sales growth come in shy of expectations.

    Meanwhile, big box retailers Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) beat same-store sales estimates in their recent quarterly results but also showed a similar slowdown in discretionary sales."

    MY COMMENT

    A miss for Costco. But this is the last company that I worry about. With their superb management and business model.....they will be just fine.
     
  5. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    WXYZ and roadtonowhere08 like this.
  6. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    NVDA is now our biggest hold in our portfolio. Second is tsla.
    Up 3.61 % today
     
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  7. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think I ever had a stock that gained 25% in one session, maybe I’m not remembering correctly at the moment. Certainly not one that I had a large stake invested in
     
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  8. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Okay that is just flat out stupid. Really, really stupid. Anyone with a brain can tell that NVDA is about as safe a bet as any company out there. Over the long term, it's going to outperform.
     
    #15688 roadtonowhere08, May 25, 2023
    Last edited: May 25, 2023
    T0rm3nted, Smokie, WXYZ and 1 other person like this.
  9. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    TSLA #1 and NVDA is a close second for me. At this point, I would invert them and match your order, but I don't rebalance. If I come across some money, I'll just add more NVDA.
     
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  10. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yup Road… I had a couple of bad stocks which plunged earlier 2022 and it was a no brainer for me to switch them over to NVDA when they were low 100s…. That’s when Cathie sold apparently.
    I would love to have a more conservative portfolio but when prices were so low on tech stocks last year I couldn’t resist.
    I dont think that the future belongs to terminators and flying cars, but I sadly certainly do see how our dependency on technology is growing bigger and bigger
     
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  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Poor Cathie Woods.......a trader posing as a long term investor. She always talks long term holding.....but she buys and sells like a maniac.

    I just dont see the attraction of any of her funds. She had the one big pandemic year....and has been a media darling ever since. she still makes a lot of sense when I hear her talk.....but how she talks and what she does in reality....in managing her portfolio...... are not the same thing.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Like you guys above.....I am also now seeing NVDA as the largest holding in most of the portfolios that I manage. If not the largest in some....than the second largest. And like most....this is due to gains....not simply buying more shares.

    Can we add another $25 tomorrow?
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    What recession?

    US economy beats back 'dubious' recession fears after GDP, jobs data top expectations

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...gdp-jobs-data-top-expectations-202247838.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "On Thursday, revisions to first quarter economic data showed the economy grew faster than initially expected despite inflation coming in higher than first noted.

    In the labor market, revisions resulting in part from fraudulent data in Massachusetts show jobless claims aren’t piling up as previously anticipated.

    Together, the data points add to a growing narrative that current economic data doesn’t match the pessimism of some economists warning about a recession.

    The argument that we're definitely going into a recession is dubious,” Blackrock’s CIO of fixed income Rick Rieder told Yahoo Finance Live. “The question is, can inflation come down enough to hit the target, and that’s the one that is not clear at this point.”

    Rieder’s comments come amid a week that showed consumer spending power is not deteriorating at an aggressive pace. Best Buy (BBY) believes its worst quarter is behind it as it projects stronger consumer technology demand in the second half of the year. Specialty clothing retailers Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) reported strong sales. And even business-to-business spending doesn’t appear to be falling off any cliffs as shares of both Nvidia (NVDA) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose following upbeat earnings forecasts.

    The spending picture is adding up to what could be another quarter of growth, according to the Atlanta Fed which projects second quarter GDP growth of 2.9%.

    “A combination of stronger growth and stronger inflation in Q1 make it even more likely that the Fed will see further rate hikes as needed to cool activity enough to bring inflation back to 2%,” Citi’s team of economists wrote in a note on Thursday.

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left his options open at his last press conference on May 3, signaling what economists later called a "hawkish pause."

    The Fed chair noted that the next decisions will be made on a meeting by meeting basis and based on the “totality of incoming data.”

    But that stance appears to be shifting, at least from other fed officials. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller discussed the Fed's likeness to “hike” interest rates or “skip” at this meeting, inferring there may be more rate hikes to come.

    "I do not support stopping rate hikes unless we get clear evidence that inflation is moving down towards [from]our 2% objective," Waller said.

    Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins cast a different tone on Thursday.

    “While inflation is still too high, there are some promising signs of moderation,” Collins said in a speech at Community College of Rhode Island. “I believe we may be at, or near, the point where monetary policy can pause raising interest rates."

    Ahead of next week’s jobs report, the current “totality of the data” has markets increasingly betting on another rate hike in June. As of Thursday afternoon, markets have priced in a nearly 50% chance of either a hike or a pause in June, according to the CME Fed watch tool.

    Markets had been nearly 100% confident in a pause the day of the CPI report on May 10 that revealed inflation cooling at its fastest pace in two years.

    But a resilient labor market with unemployment at its lowest level since 1969 and consumers spending through inflation pressures has economists questioning what once felt like a straightforward path.

    “While we expect the Fed to leave rates steady at its June meeting, the minutes from this month's FOMC meeting made clear that a more significant loosening of labor market conditions is needed to keep rate hikes permanently off the table,” Oxford economics team of economists wrote on Thursday."

    MY COMMENT

    Dont even get me started on the usual suspects......the economists and the experts. Total morons.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just like the recession.....I guess there is a difference of opinion about the Costco earnings.

    COST Notches Up on Mixed Earnings

    https://www.tipranks.com/news/cost-notches-up-on-mixed-earnings

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "Shares of Costco (NASDAQ:COST) gained slightly in after-hours trading after the company reported earnings for its third quarter of Fiscal Year 2023. Earnings per share came in at $3.43, which beat analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.31 per share. Sales increased by 2% year-over-year, with revenue hitting $53.65 billion. This missed analysts’ expectations of $54.58 billion.

    Costco’s segment data revealed gains on nearly every front except one: e-commerce. U.S. comparable sales were up 1.8%, while Canadian sales gained 7.4%. International sales added 8.4%, and total company comparable sales were up 3.5%. E-commerce, however, slipped 9%, suggesting that shoppers are eschewing online in favor of stores but on something of a lower percentage overall. Net sales, meanwhile, were up 1.9% overall against this time last year.

    Overall, Wall Street has a consensus price target of $540.55 on Costco stock, implying 11.10% upside potential, as indicated by the graphic above."

    MY COMMENT

    On the initial reports I called this a miss. Now it appears that it is a more complex story.

    I see that the markets think this also.....since the stock is basically flat in after hours trading.
     
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  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Looks like you guys had some fun yesterday!! And deservedly so. A nice day overall, but that NVDA was the main show. I didn't get a chance to look at anything until late last night and seen the results. Good to see and read the happy investing posts.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the little FED story of the day.

    US consumer spending beats expectations in April; inflation picks up

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-spending-beats-expectations-124730228.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "WASHINGTON (Reuters - U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy's growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for some time.

    Consumer spending jumped 0.8% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for March was revised up to show spending gaining 0.1% instead of being unchanged as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.4%.

    Last month's surge in consumer spending tempered economists' expectations for a sharp slowdown this quarter. Though consumer spending accelerated at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter, much of the growth was concentrated in January. Weakness in February and March set consumer spending on a lower growth trajectory heading into the second quarter.

    Consumer spending is being supported by strong wage gains in a tight labor market. It added to labor market resilience, a rebound in factory production and pickup in business activity in suggesting that the economy was regaining speed after growing at a 1.3% annualized rate in the first quarter.

    Still, consumer spending has slowed since surging in January as Americans grow more price-sensitive.

    Government social benefits are also dwindling and most lower-income households are believed to have depleted savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Credit has also become very expensive following 500 basis points worth of interest rate increases from the Fed since March 2022, when the U.S. central bank embarked on its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s to tame inflation. Banks are also tightening lending following the recent financial market turmoil.

    Minutes of the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed policymakers "generally agreed" that the need for further rate hikes "had become less certain."

    The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.4% in April after rising 0.1% in March. In the 12 months through April, the PCE price index increased 4.4% after advancing 4.2% in March.

    Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index climbed 0.4% after rising 0.3% in March. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in April after gaining 4.6% in March. The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target."

    MY COMMENT

    Congratulations to the writer of this article......factual content.....with little to no personal opinion. A classic example of GOOD journalism.

    As to the content....it is what it is. We are talking about such minute differences in this data that it is impossible to know what it means or if it means anything. It probably does increase the odds of one more rate hike....just because.

    BUT....I am "feeling"......that no one cares much about the FED anymore. One thing is SURE.....there will be NO rate cuts in 2023. I dont know why this ridiculous story-ling continues to circulate....it is not going to happen.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is the short term news today that is driving the nice open today.

    Stock futures tick higher as investors await debt deal

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...t-deal-stock-market-news-today-120957041.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stock futures were slightly higher on Friday morning as investors waited for developments in the debt-ceiling deliberations in Washington and digested the latest corporate earnings.

    Futures tied to the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.23%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 60 points, or 0.18%. Those on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved up 0.39%.


    Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 entered Friday on track to close the week lower after the debt-ceiling discussions slightly weighed on markets throughout the week. On Friday morning, Reuters reported that President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy are "closing in on a deal" to extend the government's debt ceiling for two years.

    "Negotiators appear to be closing in on an agreement," Goldman Sachs economic research team led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients on Thursday night.

    "While it is hard to predict when an announcement could come, we think the odds are highest that a deal is announced late Friday (May 26) or on Saturday (May 27). If so, this would likely allow a House vote late Tuesday (May 30) or Wednesday (May 31). The Senate also needs to pass the deal, though procedural obstacles there are unlikely to be what prevents timely enactment," they added.

    The Nasdaq rallied to close 1.7% higher on Thursday as Nvidia's (NVDA) blowout quarter sent the chip giant's stock soaring more than 24%. Earnings continued to move stocks on Friday morning as well.

    Shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose more than 16% in pre-market trading as the chipmaker joined Nvidia in sharing positive artificial intelligence news. Marvell believes its revenue attributable to AI could double in the next year.

    Elsewhere in earnings, Gap (GPS) stock rose more than 13% after the apparel retailer posted a surprise profit late Thursday. Meanwhile, shares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) fell in pre-market trading after the company warned of slowing growth trends, even though the beauty store chain beat Wall Street's revenue and earnings per share expectations for the first quarter.

    “Category growth is healthy but moderating as we lap two years of unprecedented growth. And as category growth normalizes, promotional activity is increasing,” Ulta CEO Dave Kimbell said on the company's earnings call.

    On the economic front, the PCE price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure — came in hotter than expected. Core PCE rose to 4.7% in April year-on-year, compared with economist expectations for 4.6%, and was also 0.1% higher than the month before.

    Data showed personal income and spending data increased more in April than in March. April's 0.8% increase in personal spending was 0.3% higher than expected, per Bloomberg.

    An update on durable goods orders also delivered a surprise. April's preliminary reading showed an increase of 1.1% in durable goods orders, when expectations were for a decline of 1%.

    A final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is also expected on Friday."

    MY COMMENT

    YES......the PHONY DEBT Ceiling crises is nearly over.....what did you expect.

    YES......there is NO indication of a recession.

    YES.......contrary to all the sentiment.....the economy is doing just fine as are most people
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am guessing from the general news today....some of it is posted above....that we are headed for a GOOD UP day today for the markets. That is my market......"FEEL".

    Of course this is all short term stuff. BUT....add up enough of these short term gains and sooner or later you have the long term.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I cant see this article since I am not a paid subscriber......but....the headline says it all.

    Costco again outperforms retail rivals and delivers surprise margin expansion

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/cos...s-and-delivers-surprise-margin-expansion.html

    This hint at what the article contains IRRITATES me. Not as to this article....but as to the articles that I saw and cited yesterday on the COSTCO earnings "miss". Now I am seeing more and more that this was perhaps NOT a miss at all.

    Of course I dont care how the media characterizes the COST earnings. This is such an ICONIC company.....I will probably hold it for the rest of my lifetime.
     
  20. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    These past couple of weeks in the market feel like the post covid times, particularly this week
     
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