The Long Term Investor

I agree with this little article.

On the Rate Cuts So Many Think Stocks Need

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ry/on-the-rate-cuts-so-many-think-stocks-need

(BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

"The evidence suggests stocks can carry on climbing, cuts or no.

If inflation slows enough, the Fed will cut rates and stocks will finally, really get cooking. Heard that claim yet? We suspect many have, considering it has colored headlines and coverage for much of the last year. Fed people now get asked regularly, at their many appearances, whether they see a rate cut on the horizon. All are noncommittal, but that hasn’t stopped pundits from trying to read the tea leaves. In our view, it is all misplaced. Not only are Fed moves unpredictable, but stocks shouldn’t need rate cuts to thrive.

For one, stocks have already risen nicely through several rounds of rate hikes—including big moves. The S&P 500 is now up 10.3% since the first 0.75 percentage point hike last June. Since stocks’ most recent low on October 12, the Fed has hiked five times. US stocks, undeterred, are up 16.3% since then.[ii] The market, seemingly, is over Fed hikes, rendering the will-they-or-won’t-they debate over cuts pretty irrelevant, in our view.

Which is good, because history shows mid-market cycle rate cuts are far from the norm. Exhibits 1 – 3 dive into this, breaking interest rate history into three segments (1955 – 1982, 1982 – 2008 and 2008 – present) based on the main benchmark rate in use at the time. In the first of these, the Fed hiked during three of the five bear markets depicted, teeing up cutting cycles during the young bull markets that followed. That may seem like a strong precedent for rate cuts now, given last year’s bear market partially overlapped with rate hikes, but consider that the cutting cycles in the late 1950s and mid-1970s accompanied recessions—based on the data available now, we don’t seem to be in one currently. In the early 1970s, the Fed was cutting rates after a recession, having been late to the party. So we hesitate to call these meaningful parallels, although it is yet possible the economy lapses into recession this year and the Fed cuts in response.

Exhibit 1: Rate Hikes and Markets, Mid-Century Edition


Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of 5/15/2023. Discount rate, 1/12/1955 – 9/27/1982.

Exhibit 2 shows even more variance, with big rate swings in the early 1980s as the Volcker Fed continued its inflation fight. The late 1980s’ bull market started amid steep hikes, which turned into steep cuts in mid-1989, as the Fed sought to contain the Savings & Loan Crisis. Those cuts continued through the bull market’s peak, the subsequent bear market and into the early 1990s, followed by a brief tightening cycle in 1994 and some mid-decade cuts thereafter. That is pretty much the only example of a mid-cycle cut undertaken because conditions allowed, rather than because the Fed feared things were starting to look bad. (Cuts in 1998 were largely in response to Russia’s and Asia’s currency crises and the failure of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.)

Exhibit 2: Rate Hikes and Markets, Millennium Edition


Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of 5/15/2023. Fed-funds target rate, 9/27/1982 – 12/15/2008.

Lastly, we have the 2010s, when rates were basically zero for half the decade before a multiyear tightening started. This time, the Fed started cutting in mid-2019, citing a weaker economic outlook—another rare example of cuts that weren’t connected to recession or financial market distress. Stocks and GDP were doing fine … until COVID lockdowns, which sent rates back to zero.

Exhibit 3: Rate Hikes and Markets, 21st Century Edition


Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, as of 5/18/2023. Fed-funds target range – upper limit,12/16/2008 – 5/17/2023.

Which brings us to now. Perhaps the Fed will decide it went too far, too fast and reverse a bit later this year. Maybe that comes amid a mild recession—if so, we doubt that would prove game changing for stocks, given they seemingly spent last year pre-pricing that very widely expected outcome. Or, maybe the Fed takes a nice long pause. It all depends on what its dashboard of indicators does from here—and how the many and varied people on the Federal Open Market Committee interpret those indicators based on all their analysis and biases. None of this is a market function, so we don’t think it is possible to assign probabilities to what happens next.

But the good news is there is no set bull market playbook they must follow. These charts show bull markets marching through rate hikes, rate cuts and long rate pauses. They show stocks climbing with rates at many different levels, high and low. This is logical when you consider that benchmark rates are but one point on the full rate spectrum—and but one variable affecting bank lending. That is still going strong, despite recent rate hikes, which still haven’t jacked banks’ funding costs above longer-term rates.

Nobel laureate Milton Friedman used to like to say that rate hikes don’t mean money is tight. Rather, they mean money has been too loose. Rate cuts, by his logic (which we think holds up), are the real sign of tight money, because they indicate the Fed saw a need to loosen. Lending data imply that need isn’t there today. That doesn’t preclude rate hikes—again, unpredictable—but we think it argues against the necessity."

MY COMMENT

The focus on the FED is basically over now. If they hike again in June.....ok....so what. Even if they hike a couple of more times.....so what. We are now either done with them or close to being done.....they are finished when it comes to ability to move the markets.....especially for more than a few days or a week or two.

The markets are NOT the FED or the economy. The markets are going to do what they want to do regardless of the FED from this point on. It is ridiculous to think that interest rate hikes or cuts are the single most driving event for stocks and funds. What really counts is the fundamental business data.

It is also a BIG HELP that we now have grid-lock in government. Probably the single most destructive entity to the markets is wrong-headed government policy.

 

Looks like we have now RACKED UP another gain of $23 or nearly 6% on NVDA.

So.....after the big one day jump we are now UP by about another $35. This is powering the markets higher today especially the NASDAQ and the tech stocks.

 

As to the above:

Nvidia touches $1 trillion market cap as chipmaker rides AI wave

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...cap-as-chipmaker-rides-ai-wave-133530381.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Nvidia's (NVDA) market cap touched $1 trillion on Tuesday, making the company the first chipmaker to hit such a high valuation. Nvidia's stock opened more than 4% higher, hovering around $406 per share.

The Santa Clara, California based company joins the ranks of tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) in surpassing the $1 trillion market cap level.

Nvidia's stock has seen a stunning rally — up more than 165% year to date. The chipmaker is at the center of an AI craze thanks to its high-powered graphics cards and server products.

On Monday, Nvidia took the wraps off a slew of new AI-centric products, including a new high-powered supercomputer and a platform that will put generative AI to work in video game development.

Shares skyrocketed more than 26% last Thursday following Nvidia's better-than-expected quarterly results and guidance.

“There’s a war going on out there in AI, and Nvidia today is the only arms dealer out there. So as a result we’re seeing this huge jump in revenues,” Raymond James managing director Srini Pajjuri recently said in a note to investors.

The company says it expects revenue of $11 billion, plus or minus 2% for the second quarter. Wall Street was looking for $7.2 billion.

“We thought if they beat the guidance by about 5%, that’s good enough for the stock to stay where it is. But they’re beating [the] guidance consensus by 50%,” said Pajjuri.

Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, with 49 buy recommendations, 8 hold, and 1 sell. The average price target on the stock is $439.73."

MY COMMENT

This stock is on fire and arguably it is justified if all the hype and forward guidance is true. I have no reason to doubt it.

I have not seen a company doing this sort of action since the good old days of Microsoft in the 1990 to 200 time span. HOWEVER......I love the ride......but....I see this company as simply a single stock in my ten stock portfolio. What really counts is how a portfolio as a whole works or does not work.....over the long term.

 

HERE is the markets today.....i note that we have now backed off from some of the early gains.

Stocks rise as debt deal faces next hurdle

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-may-30-115001775.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks were mostly higher Tuesday at the open, kicking off a shortened trading week amid hopes the hard-won deal-ceiling deal will get through a divided Congress in a matter of days.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 0.51%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.11%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was flat.

US bond yields lost ground as investors assessed the potential impact of the debt-limit deal. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.7%. The two-year note yield slipped to 4.5%, while that on the 30-year bond dropped to 3.9%.

Investors are now watching for the debt-ceiling deal to get over its next crucial hurdle so it can be passed by lawmakers and avert a harmful default.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative agreement on Sunday to raise the debt ceiling and on the budget. The deal came after weeks of negotiations, slow progress that rattled markets.

Still, the agreement faces an early test Tuesday in the House Rules Committee, which is scheduled to consider the bill before an expected vote in the House on Wednesday, and before it goes to the Senate.

The administration has warned that Congress must raise the debt ceiling by June 5 - the so-called "X Date" - or risk tipping the US into the first default in its history.

Even as the clock ticks down, Wall Street is playing the waiting game.

“There's not much room for error but with moderates on both sides seemingly in line, then there can be a vocal minority on both sides against the deal and it still passes,” Jim Reid and colleagues at Deutsche Bank wrote to clients Tuesday morning. “We will see how lawmakers react as they come back from the holiday weekend.”

Meanwhile, the major economic release of the week will be the US jobs report for May due out on Friday. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect a drop in monthly payroll additions to 180,000, from 253,000 in April. The unemployment rate is seen inching up slightly to 3.5%.

The jobs report will be pored over in coming weeks for clues to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the next meeting of policymakers, set for June 13-14. Markets are pricing in an rate hike of 25 basis points by July, after data last week showed US consumer inflation accelerated in April.

On the housing front, US home prices again increased month over month. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index rose 0.4% in March compared with the previous month, according to data released on Tuesday. That was the second straight month of gains after seven consecutive months of price declines.

Elsewhere, shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) rallied over 3%, hitting a $1 trillion market cap at the open Tuesday after CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a host of new AI-related products and services the previous day.

Other stocks linked to AI rose, including Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) shares, which gained more than 5% Tuesday. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) shares climbed more than 1%, while C3.ai Inc. (AI) shares gained more than 14%."

MY COMMENT

Not much going on this week....the norm lately. We are in the final fear mongering stage of the Debt Ceiling deal. Why not wring a bit more fear out of this issue in the final days. You will notice that I have not BOLDED any of the BS about this in the above. I do not consider it important......other than how it "might" drive the markets UP once it is done.

They are being ignored but there are still some earning to come in this week.....HPE, CRM, GME, JWN, DG, LULU, etc, etc. Here is the list for this week.....some well known names reporting this week.....a very eclectic mix of companies.

Kiplinger's Weekly Earnings Calendar (May 29-June 2)

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks

 

LOL.....I see that the poor DOW is now negative for the day. It has had a poor showing so far this year significantly lagging the other big averages.

AND.....we are also seeing the SP500 and the NASDAQ backing off from the open mania that was a reflection of the first day of trading after the announcement of the Debt deal.

It is likely going to end as a positive day today.....but nothing is set in stone. We are STILL in a very shallow market. I can see this being one of those days where some people end up nicely and others dont end up at all......it could be a very specific day depending on the particular stocks you own.

Today is really irrelevant.....what counts is the longer term market direction. In other words the preservation and continuation of the young BULL MARKET that we have been silently riding for the past 11 months.

There are a lot of positives to come over the rest of this year.....not the least of which is the earnings that will come over the next 2-3 quarters. Remember....we are just at the start of the normal economy......we have FINALLY gotten over most of the impact of the economic shut down.

 

I looked at my account a little early today.....I have a nice fat gain so far. I was surprised to see five stocks down including a couple of the big tech stocks. I guess it is even more of a selective day than I thought.

The five stocks that are down for me today.....MSFT, COST, HD, HON and GOOGL.

The close today is very much up in the air. I can see it even ending as a down day......"buy the rumor sell the news"....in terms of the Debt deal. Whatever.

I will say......SHOW ME THE MONEY.

 

A good article above Zukodany.

That list of five is probably applicable to any of the big tech companies. I would put at the top of the list for NVDA as a stock price killer......anything that would result in a management change.....a health issue, some scandal, a mid-life crises, any other unknown issue.....the management of this company is EXCEPTIONAL founder management.

 

I am driving myself crazy trying to authenticate a painting by photo. I have not been able to see it in person.

I have photos of the signature and the painting. The signature photo has some sort of digital overlay or something that makes the signature look suspicious. But.....when I magnify the photo of the whole painting.....the signature does not have that same look.

I also need to see the back of the canvas and the stretcher......and....black-light it.

I am thinking that I will negotiate with the seller and than drive 12 hours to see it in person and if it looks ok complete the deal.

 

WELL......LOL.

What a day....after all the up and down the SP500 ends up right where it started......0.00%....for the day. of ccourse....the poor DOW ended up red today.

I had a nice medium level gain today....green is good. I lost about half my earlier gains....but it was still a very good day. I also managed to beat the SP500 by 0.67% today.

I ended the day with four stocks down for the day.....NKE, MSFT, HD, and GOOGL. I had a couple of strong winners today.....NVDA up by $11.65....or....2.99%. Also TSLA....up by $7.99....and.......4.15% for the day.

A SOLID start to the week for me.

 

HERE is the close today.

Dow finishes Tuesday lower as Wall Street weighs odds of debt ceiling deal clearing Congress

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on Tuesday as Wall Street considered the likelihood of Congress passing a tentative deal on raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

The 30-stock index lost 50.56 points, or 0.15%, to end at 33,042.78. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.002% gain to close at 4,205.52, after trading both above and below the flatline during the session. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.32% to finish at 13,017.43, paring gains after trading up as much as 1.4% earlier in the day.

President Joe Biden and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a default over the weekend, with Congress set to vote on the legislation as early as Wednesday. Lawmakers have not signaled that they intended to return to Capitol Hill early to work on the deal. Both Republican and Democratic support is needed for the proposed bill to pass.

The agreement comes just days before the so-called X date on Monday, which is the earliest date the Treasury Department has signaled the U.S. could default on debt obligations. The long negotiations between the White House and congressional leaders raised concern among investors that a default could take place. Despite the tentative agreement, obstacles remain on the path to passage for the compromise bill in the House amid growing opposition within the GOP.

“Markets climb walls of worry at the end of the day, and the debt ceiling is obviously some type of worry,” said Chris Barto, investment analyst at Fort Pitt Capital. “But I think the market is kind of pricing in some sort of deal does get done.”



CNBC

Concern over the potential for another interest rate hike also weighed on investor sentiment. Traders are pricing in a 68.8% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also said at National Association of Business Economics event Tuesday that he hasn’t “backed off” from his rate forecast, which he said is among the higher ones within the central bank.

“The Fed is still a major focus for all investors,” said Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network. “It’s really a tug of war between what the Fed is likely to do: whether or not they are going to hike one or two more times, or just sit tight and wait and see how incoming inflationary data is over the next couple of months.”

The Nasdaq was helped by a nearly 3% rally in Nvidia.

The artificial intelligence-related stock reached a $1 trillion market cap — an elite marker surpassed by just a handful of stocks — at one point in Tuesday’s session, as shares continued to rally following its strong earnings report last week.

MY COMMENT

A good day for some and no doubt perhaps a flat or even a bad day for others. It is a very small and selective market right now. Day by day depends on the specific companies that you own right now.

 

From the same article and link as above.....I assume this is one reason for the bump up in TSLA today.

"Tesla is ‘set up well’ for share growth despite lingering demand constraints, Barclays says

Despite some near-term headwinds, Tesla looks “set up well” for share gains over the long run, according to Barclays.

“Simply, not only is Tesla set up to be the primary beneficiary of the global EV transition with a significant lead on cost, but it is also the leader in establishing the software-defined vehicle of the future,” wrote analyst Dan Levy in a Tuesday note to clients.

Even amid demand constraints and recent price cuts introduced by the company, Levy views the Model 1 and Cybertruck as “key steps forward” in Tesla’s share expansion opportunity. These models should offer Tesla access to the pickup market and lower price tiers, he wrote.

“Overall, we reaffirm our OW rating and Tesla, and see it as a long-term winner in the global EV race,” he said. “Yet we believe the question of model concentration must be addressed on its path of volume growth.”

MY COMMENT

At this moment TSLA makes up.....ONLY..... about 1.3% to 1.5%...of my total portfolio.

I am content to simply hold it for the long term. I am primarily betting on ELON.....to pull this off. It is a small enough holding for me that I consider it a.....NO RISK....holding regardless of what happens in the future.

 

SHOCKING.....well not really.

Debt ceiling bill clears key hurdle, teeing up final House vote before it goes to Senate

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/30/debt-ceiling-deal-updates.html

MY COMMENT

Are people really so dumb as to think that this is not going to pass? Why waste a story when...every little drop of drama has not been squeezed out of it yet.

"A floor vote on the Fiscal Responsibility Act is planned for around 8:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, according to a tentative House voting schedule."

 

I like this little article.....it reinforces recent messages in this thread.

Weekly Market Pulse: A Hill of Beans

https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/05/29/weekly-market-pulse-a-hill-of-beans/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

________________________________________________________________________________

"One is rarely surprised when expecting the least from our elected officials – although rock bottom does seem to get lower every year – so I don’t expect much to come of this. We will not be balancing the budget this year. We won’t be cutting or raising taxes, getting rid of any regulations, or passing out fewer subsidies to favored industries. But I don’t think we’ll be defaulting either.

– Me, one week ago

And so we have a deal. Or at least President Biden and Speaker McCarthy have a deal. I don’t know if they have the votes to get this passed but I doubt they would have announced anything without counting noses and yeses. So, I assume they’ll pass something and end this latest episode of The Debt Ceiling as all the previous ones ended – with an agreement that accomplishes exactly nothing.

I haven’t read the entire bill and have no intention of doing so because it amounts to a hill of beans. It doesn’t mandate any meaningful spending cuts, it doesn’t close any tax loopholes, it doesn’t reduce the deficit, it doesn’t reduce regulation and it doesn’t reduce any subsidies. About the only thing it does that might impact the economy in any significant way is to end the moratorium on student loan repayments…one month sooner than previously scheduled. Ok, never mind. What it does is yield headlines like this:

McCarthy Won the Debt-Limit Deal. Biden Did, Too.

Assuming the deal passes, how will it impact markets? I am reminded of the old Wall Street adage to “buy the rumor, sell the news”. The odds of an actual default were miniscule and a resolution with little substance was the most likely and obvious outcome, evidenced by the fact that even I figured it out. But is that why the stock market is up 3.7% in the last month? If it is, then one might expect some selling on the news of a deal.

But was the prospect of a debt ceiling compromise really the driving factor for stocks over the last month (or quarter or YTD for that matter)? I have my doubts since I don’t think anyone really treated the idea of an actual default as a serious possibility. It isn’t a popular idea these days but I think we ought to consider the possibility that it is the fundamentals that are moving the market.

The economy continues to show remarkable resiliency. Economic growth is not great but it is better than expected, an outcome accomplished for most by merely staying positive. Q1 GDP growth was upgraded last week on the second estimate to 1.3% and that, if anything, understates the strength. Inventories shaved 2.1% off that total last quarter. The inventory correction is largely over though so inventories may well prove a positive in coming quarters.

A broader measure of economic growth, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, was released last week that confirms that the trend of Q1 is continuing into Q2. The reading for April was 0.07, a considerable improvement from March’s -0.37. The recent low was in November 2022 at -0.56 and we’ve seen a choppy improvement since then. A reading of zero indicates growth at trend, which today is right around 2%, while a 3-month average of -0.75 indicates recession.

S&P 500 earnings have also been better than expected and while there has been a lot of reporting on the small year-over-year decline (currently about 2%), there has been almost none on the sequential gains. With 95% of the companies in the index reporting, operating earnings are up about 5% from Q4 ’22 and 13% from Q2 ’22. That is now 3 consecutive quarters of sequential improvement. Even more impressive is the improvement in margins, up nearly a full percent quarter over quarter.

Predicting the short-term direction of the stock market is a mug’s game and one I don’t play. I don’t know what the market will do now assuming the debt ceiling melodrama is over. There is a din of hype around artificial intelligence that is hard to ignore despite there being little substance to it at this point. Over a quarter of companies in the S&P 500 mentioned AI on their quarterly conference calls and I’d be shocked if a quarter of those have any idea what the term even means. AI is improving rapidly but this is early times and its ultimate impact is still a big unknown. So, yes, looking at stocks like Nvidia makes me think sentiment might just be a tad too bullish right now. A correction of some sort would not be surprising at all.

Markets have, in recent weeks, started to price in another rate hike and pushed rate cuts out to near the end of the year. With inflation proving stubborn and economic growth barely affected by rate hikes (other than the real estate slowdown), the risk for investors is that rates have higher to go. All else equal, higher rates mean lower valuations. Earnings can continue to grow, even in recession, if nominal GDP continues to grow. NGDP growth never turned negative in the 70s and earnings grew from $5.73 to $15 during the decade despite 3 recessions. By contrast, earnings only grew to $22.49 in the next 10 years with only one recession.

So, the question for investors is whether earnings growth will be sufficient to offset lower valuations. There are too many unknowns to produce a confident answer but that probably wouldn’t prevent AI from providing one. And it would probably be as accurate as most of the research produced by Wall Street. "

MY COMMENT

YEP.......see prior recent post on here.

 

Probably a wasted market day today with the Debt vote tonight. there is some chance that by the end of the day....the markets could turn positive as it becomes more clear the Debt deal is going to pass tonight. I really have no concern about the deal.....tut the markets are NERVOUS-NELLIES.

I see that we also have numerous FED people out in force yesterday and today TRASHING the markets, the economy, and fear mongering rate hikes. Yeah.....whatever.

 

This actually is a pretty good summary of today.

Stocks slide with all eyes on debt-ceiling vote

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...g-vote-stock-market-news-today-133218121.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks were lower Wednesday morning as investors kept a watchful eye on the prospects for the debt-limit deal in an expected House floor vote later. Meanwhile, China’s economic woes pressured global markets.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.52% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped 0.69% or more than 200 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.13% at 10:06 am ET.

US bond yields weakened as investors fretted over the potential impact of the debt-limit deal and braced for the release of fresh jobs data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.68%. The two-year note yield slipped to 4.4%, while that on the 30-year bond dropped to 3.9%.

The debt ceiling agreement negotiated by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy passed its first key test on Tuesday when it gained approval from the Republican-led House Rules Committee despite opposition from hard-liners. That cleared the way for the deal to go before the House on Wednesday.

The clock is ticking down, as Congress must race to pass the deal to avoid a catastrophic default by June 5. That so-called X-Date is when the US will run out of money to pay its bills, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned.

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials posed a headwind for Wall Street. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Tuesday he's looking for signs that demand is cooling to be convinced that inflation will ease, speaking at a National Association for Business Economics event.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said she sees no “compelling reason” to pause interest-rate increases amid the debt-limit deal, speaking in a Financial Times interview published Wednesday.

Fed officials Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, and Michelle Bowman are expected to speak publicly later Wednesday.

In light of recent economic data, markets are pricing in an increase of 25 basis points in interest rates from the Fed at policymakers' meeting on June 13-14.

Elsewhere, China’s factory activity slumped to its weakest level for a second straight month, another sign its post-pandemic economic recovery is losing steam. Asian markets tumbled after the release of the data.

Wednesday's economic docket brought the latest on the number of job openings. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of open jobs in the US edged up to 10.1 million. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected 9.4 million openings.

On the housing front, mortgage demand dropped to its lowest level since March, while refinancing activity also dampened to another low, the MBA data showed Wednesday.

In US equities, the run-up in stocks linked to AI was losing momentum, after the buzz around the technology helped boosted the Nasdaq 100 Index (^NDX) on Tuesday. Shares of ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) slipped, while C3.ai, Inc. (AI) dipped more than 6% Wednesday.

In single-stock moves, SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) shares rallied more than 4% in the wake of the debt ceiling deal. The bill would reinstate government student loan repayments, benefiting the online personal finance company.

Shares of HP Inc. (HPQ) sank more than 5% after the computing giant posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Tuesday, but reported sales that fell more than analysts estimated."

MY COMMENT

A good accurate analysis of today. Of course.....this is just one day in the life of a long term investor.

 

I have now joined the GANG of people that think there will be a 0.25% rate hike in June. As to July....about 50/50.

In any event this is just a temporary extension of the hikes......we will have about 2 months and will be done. I dont anticipate that this will have much impact on the general economy or jobs at all.

It will also have MINIMAL short term impact on investors.

 

Here is the economic story of the day.....if anyone cares......I dont. I still am not seeing any indication of an impending mild recession. Fed rate hikes in June and/or July might change the recession probability a bit......but we will just have to wait and see.

Job openings show surprise increase in April

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-show-surprise-increase-in-april-142039924.html

 

YEP.....a wasted day today but understandable with the Debt "stuff" happening tonight. We were also past due for some selling after the big run up recently in tech and other businesses.

I had a medium+ loss in my account today. Only two stocks were up.....COST and TSLA. I also lost out to the SP500 by 0.86%.

BUMMER for me. Only two days left in the short week. We are over the HUMP. ONWARD AND UPWARD.