Obviously not as strong today. Kind of a mixed bag. SP500 about flat with the NASDAQ a bit in the green. Even the FEDs world speaking tour couldn't keep the whole thing beat down.
One of the earnings out at close was Micron Technology (MU). Looks like they are up after hours after their report. Not advocating for/against this company, just putting it up for those interested. Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Results for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2023
Yeah, pretty flat day today. I ended with a loss but a small one. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.11%. I ended the day with a gain in five stocks and a loss in five stocks. the gainers were.....AAPL, MSFT, COST, TSLA, and GOOGL.
HERE is my NIKE earnings today. WHOOPS......they report today. Nevder-mind. I do have three issues with NKE at this moment: 1. The "woke" stance that the company often takes is a HUGE DISTRACTION from their business. 2. The move away from retail sales to direct sales. This move seems to match up with their recent issues. I tend to think this was and is a MISTAKE by management. 3. The continued reliance on china. This company needs to do a big push to get out of China and move all their manufacturing to Viet Nam, India, and Cambodia.
This is what I find interesting from an investing perspective. If Intel can fully get it's act together (and I am seeing some signs on other forums that they are), and the U.S. government is going to throw copious amounts of money their way to make them compete with or beat TSMC, then Intel might be very compelling for the medium/long term. An Nvidia design and Intel fab/packaging combo might be an unbeatable powerhouse.
Futures are solid green at the moment. But we’re not opened yet… As far as Intel is concerned, over here in Columbus OH, real estate is literally losing its shit with prices. This uptrend had started in our area as soon as news broke that Intel is coming to town two years ago. Our “little” property of 1.2 acres is already up a modest 100k since last year alone, and that’s not factoring our rezone development Google is also opening two centers here, and Amazon and meta are negotiating deals in Johnstown. Needless to say, we got in just at the nick of time and we’re still considering buying more properties here. I went through the same metamorphosis back at home in Bayside, Queens some 20 years ago, where prices started to climb up in small little pockets in the suburbs and are now practically untouchable. I’m talking about Malba, Beechhurst, Douglastown, Whitestone, and the likes. Now, I see THE SAME gold rush to similar neighborhoods here, and prices are ALREADY up in Uptown Westerville, Galena, Worthington and of course Les Wexner’s New Albany. Some exciting times we live in
Hey W...This is not your NIKE earnings I believe. The posted story is from 2022. NIKE does not report until after close today on June 29.
LOL.....you are right. I was so EAGER to see the earnings..... and looking after a long day......that story caught my attention. I STILL stand by the comment in that post....regardless of what they post today. I will edit it to leave the comment....so that it is not confusing to some reader. I was wondering last night why I could not find the NKE earnings. That is the problem with being in studio-world.....you are in a little bubble and lose track of everything outside.
A nice little open today. I like it even though the NASDAQ is red at the moment. We are seeing the markets as they are......WITHOUT....all the overlay of fear, panic, and crazy concerns.
I like this little article. Funflation’ and the Pessimism of Disbelief https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ary/funflation-and-the-pessimism-of-disbelief (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Why splurging on high-priced tickets and hotels isn’t an economic horror story. What do Taylor Swift and Beyoncé have in common? Aside from being world-famous pop stars, both are reportedly responsible for surging prices—i.e., Swiftflation and Beyflation. This isn’t just nosebleed prices for nosebleed seats, but sky-high hotel prices during the big event. With people shelling out instead of cutting back amid central bank rate hikes, economists warn a summer of “funflation” threatens to keep inflation elevated—and credit conditions tight, supposedly kryptonite for the economy. On the surface, this is just another extension of rate hike fears, but we think the broader discussion is most telling about sentiment. Headlines are acting like today’s consumer behavior is somehow new and dangerous, as if major sporting and entertainment events haven’t skyrocketed nearby restaurant and hotel prices for decades. To us, this is a striking example of the pessimism of disbelief (PoD) that normally accompanies young bull markets. While decelerating goods prices have led inflation lower since it peaked a year ago, fears have turned to stubbornly high or “sticky” services prices, like shelter or medical care. The alleged funflation threat is an outgrowth of this. Rather than take the good (overall inflation is falling and consumer demand appears to be holding up) with the bad (some prices aren’t stabilizing yet), economists are fixating on the bad parts. That this includes celebrity performances inevitably draws headline attention. As the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported recently, “Prices for recreational and cultural goods and services rose, overall, by 6.8% in the year to May 2023, up from 6.4% in April, and the highest rate since August 1991. ... The largest [increase] came from cultural services (particularly admission fees to live music events).” Because of performers’ celebrity stature, the prices they (and venues they perform at) can command—and the halo effect on local lodging and dining establishments—the cost of admission is higher. The associated warnings of economic trouble carry the underlying assertion that this consumer behavior is somehow new, unprecedented and game changing, and central bankers won’t be able to see through it. Some analysts equate this to more rate hikes, risking recession. But paying up for entertainment isn’t a new phenomenon. Yes, the current wave is part of the return of normal spending patterns on services and away from goods. After COVID lockdowns, recency bias—when your latest experience heavily influences future expectations—might make it seem new. There is no evidence this is some weird, unprecedented demand surge, though. Big concert and sports tickets have been super expensive for eons, especially when you factor in the secondary market. It is also normal for accommodation prices to jump. For Super Bowl LIV weekend in February 2020, on the eve of pandemic lockdowns, Miami hotels’ average daily rates soared 149% y/y ($617 a night).[ii] Similar phenomena have long surrounded the Olympics as well as the World Cup, Formula 1 races, the World Series, NBA finals, major concerts, conventions and many, many more. It is the market’s way of meeting surging demand for a limited supply of beds. The present alarm over elevated entertainment spending—which prepandemic no one would bat an eyelash at—strikes us as another instance of PoD. A big PoD hallmark is portraying all news as bad, even if it isn’t. We think this qualifies, given the underlying behavior is actually pretty normal. Who hasn’t saved up to be able to swing a big event once during the year? Maybe it was for a big concert trip. Or a sports event. Or a vacation. Sometimes people cut back on these splurges during recessions, but the data thus far don’t indicate that we are in a recession right now. So it seems to us like people are just living and budgeting as they normally do in a growing economy. Most consumer spending is on essentials, not discretionary spending, and people have long managed both. Entertainment costs are likely just getting attention now because of the visible impact on inflation readings in smaller nations, which stems partly from the base effect as big events were nonexistent during lockdowns. In Sweden, Beyoncé was blamed for fueling higher-than-expected inflation. (Note though, the issue here was overall prices didn’t fall as much as projected.) While that speaks to the continued heightened inflation focus, it is fighting last year’s war. Inflation globally is trending down, and leading indicators point to further slowing. Like everyone else, we could do without the prolonged high prices people have been suffering through the last couple years. But nothing here is new. Funflation is an old phenomenon repackaged to seem like a mountain-sized threat. In actuality, we think it is much more mundane. Maybe the celebrity name-dropping makes economics a little extra entertaining—or at least eyeball grabbing. For investors, though, we would set that aside. As ever, funflation’s fecklessness doesn’t predict central bankers’ next moves. Those are always unknowable. But for markets, we think the current funflation freakout is a good indication pessimistic sentiment continues to lower the expectations bar for reality to exceed and extend the wall of worry stocks climb." MY COMMENT A tempest in a teapot. This is simple supply and demand. Unfortunately for the "regular person" there are lots of people with very high incomes that are chasing these tickets. NOTHING to see here.....in terms of the economy, inflation, or the future.
The market today......can you say GDP? Dow leads stocks up after GDP data as banks rally https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-today-june-29-2023-103919771.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks climbed Thursday, after fresh data underscored the resilience of the US economy in the face of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.5%, getting some uplift from gains for JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) after successful Fed stress tests. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) put on about 0.2%. A sharp upward revision to second-quarter GDP and a fall in jobless claims on Thursday echoed recent releases reflecting strength in the economy, seen as providing scope for the Fed to keep raising rates." "Q1 GDP revised up...again The more we learn about the state of the economy through the first quarter, the better things look. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released a third reading of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday. The report revealed the economy grew at a 2% rate in the first quarter, a sharp uptick from the previously reported 1.3% growth. It also marks the second upward revision since the first reading in April initially showed 1.1% growth. "The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending," the BEA noted. Services led the consumer spending category higher driven by health care, which saw a boost in physician services. The revision upwards comes amid what's been a strong week for economic data as economists continue to push back their recession forecasts. EY chief economist Gregory Daco said the print provides "genuine optimism" about the state of the US economy. "The US economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience," Daco said. "This is leading many to rightly question whether the long-forecast recession is truly inevitable, or whether a soft landing of the economy – where inflation falls to a sustainable 2% pace without a recession – is possible. Economic data on the housing, business and consumer front have been tilted to the upside recently, and even sectors that are generally considered more interest-rate sensitive have outperformed relative to expectations."" MY COMMENT It is amazing that we can NOT get an accurate GDP figure with all the experts and computing power that is used to do this calculation. It is also amazing that it takes 3-6 months for the revision to be calculated and made public.
A story that no one cares about......but....this should put the bank crises to bed once and for all. Federal Reserve says 23 biggest banks weathered severe recession scenario in stress test https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/28/fed-stress-test-2023-23-banks-weathered-severe-recession.html
Well, when the average investor/consumer is bombarded with a economic report almost daily, or some other number crunching....no wonder the accuracy and timeliness is in question. I think a broad view overall is better served than all of these microscopic analysis done by experts and pundits. What have they accomplished? How often are they correct? And then the obsession over the smallest move one way or another is silly in my view. My 2cents...clearly anecdotal of course, in just being out and about. Entertainment venues, dining, summer activities, retail, home improvement/building stores, and on and on.....all have been packed and busy with consumers. It appears the consumer is carrying on and doing things. This includes spending on things they need and on what they want to do.
There is a lot of truth in this little article.....and....much that can be relevant to investing as well as life. A Few Questions https://collabfund.com/blog/a-few-questions/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Whose life do I admire that is secretly miserable? What do I believe is true only because believing it puts me in good standing with my tribe? Which of my current values would be different if I were raised by different parents? What do I believe the most with the least amount of evidence of it being true? Who has the right answer but I ignore because they’re a bad communicator? Who is full of it but I pay attention to because they’re a good communicator? What do I think is ambition (a good trait) but is actually envy (a terrible one)? What annoys me about other people that I sometimes do myself? How much of my nostalgia is a false or incomplete memory of the past? What in your profession is impossible to know no matter how smart you become? David Deutsch said, “Beware of the difference between prediction and prophecy. Prophecy purports to know things which cannot be known.” Is this thing I’m worried about actually a problem, or am I looking for problems to worry about because they make me feel in control? What in my field do I think is a law (works all the time) but is actually just a rule (works some of the time)? What do I think is a universal truth but is actually just a norm unique to my own culture? What was true a generation ago that no longer is, and who is clinging to that old truth? What is partially true but I believe in it so absolutely, and take it so seriously, that I’ve turned it into a dangerous belief? Are there things going well in my life today that I will look back on and wish I had quit while I was ahead? Is there something in my life I think I’m “passionate” about or “focused” on but I’m actually just addicted to it? Do I spend more time defending what I already know instead of trying to learn something new? Are there people in my life who I consider kind and compassionate but they’re actually just too shy to tell me hard truths? What would Instagram look like if it were an honest reflection of people’s life, instead of a curated highlight reel? Am I being as nice as I could be, rather than just as nice as I need to be?" MY COMMENT I am sure each of us could add to this list of questions based on our personal and psychological experiences. Perhaps....the largest factor in investing is our emotional and psychological make-up. Our personal make-up impacts everything when it comes to money. It never hurts to take some time and evaluate out investing BIAS....and....what we can do to negate that BIAS.
So true. This is why it is so important for one to evaluate their plan in investing and determine why one is managing it the way you are and for what purpose. Not just doing something because someone else says so. Researching and plotting your own plan not only gives you some education, but you will likely stick with it longer because you know it. If you just copy someone else or blindly follow others, when there is trouble, you will just bail and blame it on the "idiots" you were following. If you at least do your homework you will likely not be as easily moved by the extra noise or latch on to some other following. As we all know, this does not mean every thing we do within our plans will always work out, but we will have our own information to make a change if necessary.
WXYZ mentioned above the bank stress test article. Looks like the bank stocks are having a decent day as a result of the info. The small caps having a pretty good day as well.
Some more news on the semiconductor front. TSMC sending more workers to speed up building of new Arizona plant Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC said on Thursday it is sending more workers from Taiwan to the U.S. state of Arizona to help build a massive $40 billion factory to ensure its "fast ramp up". The first Arizona chip fabrication facility, or fab, is scheduled to be operational by 2024. A second facility nearby that is expected to make 3 nanometre chips - the most advanced currently in production - is due to be up and running by 2026. TSMC did not disclose how many workers from Taiwan are currently in Arizona. The additional number who will be going has yet to be determined and will only be in the state for a limited time, it said in a statement. "Given we are now in a critical phase handling all of the most advanced and dedicated equipment in a sophisticated facility, we require skilled expertise," it said. The additions will not impact the 12,000 workers currently on-site every day or U.S.-based hiring, it added. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, as the company is formally called, is the world's largest contract chip maker and a major supplier to global tech firms including Apple Inc and Nvidia Corp. U.S. President Joe Biden has sought to boost domestic semiconductor production after the COVID-19 pandemic caused supply chain problems that led to shortages of chips for vehicles and many other items. TSMC's investment is a key part of that ambition, and Biden visited the construction site in December. While TSMC has said the bulk of its manufacturing, especially of the most advanced chips, will remain in Taiwan, it is also building a plant in Japan and considering another one in Germany.
Looks like the next 20 minutes will determine my day. I have a small loss right now......with AAPL, NKE, HD, and Hon UP. TSLA is flat.....and the rest are down. Definitely a flat, slow, boring day for the markets. The PAUSE that REFRESHES. Fine with me.....a flat day is just as good as an UP day when it comes to maintaining my gains of the year to date.
My account tried to get into the green today....but just could not quite manage to get there. A SMALL loss for me today....even though I had five of ten stocks UP. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.57%. My UP stocks were AAPL, NKE, HD, HON, and TSLA. My losers were all minimal losses.....so a pretty much NOTHING day for me.
