I had a BIG gain day today. Of course......NIKE was down for the day based on the earnings. It was my single down stock today. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 by......0.30%. NO DOUBT we had another UP week in the market averages this week.......at least the ones that count....the SP500 and the NASDAQ.
ANOTHER.......stellar week for investors. We are starting to get spoiled. DOW year to date +3.80% DOW for the week +2.02% SP500 year to date +15.91% SP500 for the week +2.35% NASDAQ 100 year to date +38.74% NASDAQ 100 for the week +1.90% NASDAQ year to date +31.73% NASDAQ for the week +2.19% RUSSELL year to date +7.24% RUSSELL for the week +3.68% My result as of the close today for my ENTIRE account........+33.87%. Last Friday I was at......+31.44%. Change for the week.....+2.43%.
We are now ready to hit the second half hard and at full speed. It was an amazing first half to the year....especially considering last year and the DISMAL results. I am very thankful to be siting at +33.87 heading into the final half of the year. The DOW and RUSSELL are still sucking air...even though they are positive. The SP500 is doing a very respectable gain for the first half......over 15%. Very nice considering that it averages about 10-11% per year long term. The NASDAQ 100 and the NASDAQ are totally kicking ass this year at the half way mark.
HERE is the end of the half. Stocks surge, ending strong first half with a bang https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-today-june-30-2023-104026486.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks climbed Friday, ending a strong first half on a high note amid more signs of cooling from the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose over 300 points, or just under 1%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 1.5%. All three major stock benchmarks logged strong performances for both the year's second quarter and first half. The Nasdaq is up more than 30% since the start of the year, according to Yahoo Finance data. That represented its best first half of the year since 1983, according to data from Bespoke Investment. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained around 16%, while the Dow has put up a more modest 4% gain. On Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation index showed prices rose 3.8% in May on a year-over-year basis, down from a 4.4% year-over-year jump in April. And from April to May, prices ticked up just 0.1%. The data comes after a surprise upward revision to first-quarter GDP showed the US economy is a lot stronger than Wall Street thought. Growing faith in that strength has helped drive this year's rally in stocks, even though that resilience likely means rates will stay higher for longer." MY COMMENT BOOM. I repeat.....BOOM. The markets are taking off. The percentage of people that are recognizing the BULL MARKET is going up. Money is going to start to pour into the markets now. ALL the professionals will be doing lots of window dressing and editing their commentary to make it look like they have been capturing what has been happening for their customers. LOL
For those of us that own APPLE.....this is a very nice milestone. Apple hits $3 trillion market cap as 2023 tech rally continues https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...p-as-2023-tech-rally-continues-133055319.html I LOVE how I am seeing all sorts of opinion lately on the business TV and print...about how the boom in AI is causing the BULL MARKET. NOPE......this bull market has been going on for nearly a YEAR now. In addition it was off and running before the recent AI mania over the past month or two. AI has definately been a nice leg up for the markets recently....but it is DEFINITELY NOT the cause of the current bull market.
I am off to a couple of shows this Forth Of July weekend. A nice little road trip. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. Come back ready to RUMBLE on Monday.....we have to make it count since it is another short week.
Not much else to be said about our end of the week....nice it is. I notice more often when we have these nice little runs that the media pulls up some past commentary by the FED and how inflation remains too high. Also, how they are gonna keep hammering away at it and keep referring to 2%. Okay....so what is new about it? Some of these people act as if they have never seen any inflation in their lives....then again maybe they haven't. I think if you average it out over history, it averages out to about 3 to 3.8%. Of course there have been times where it has been too high and even too low in my opinion. To carry on like we must make or break it to 2% is silly. But enough of that crap...we get hosed enough with it as it is. I like where we have come from and where we are headed. Keep moving I say.
So, zukodany, did you drop the hammer on your NIKE today? I was wondering at open this morning if you did. Of course, it's none of my business, so feel free to say so.
As eluded to above a bit. The market closes early Monday at 1pm and then closed obviously Tuesday for the 4th. ENJOY and BE THANKFUL for our many FREEDOMS here. I have always loved this quote about it. “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”
I thought this was an interesting little figure. S&P 500 Drawdown Metrics Current Price 4,450.38 All Time High 4,818.62 Lowest Price Since All Time High 3,491.58 Drawdown At Lowest Price Since All Time High -27.54% Gain From Lowest Price 27.46% Gain Required to Reach All Time High From Current Price 8.27% Gain Required to Reach All Time High From Lowest Price 38.01% (Slickcharts).
Ok, so haven’t sold Nike on Friday. I have a thing about buying on a Green Day - I just don’t. and since I didn’t wanna sit on cash and didn’t sense that Nike is gonna collapse because of their poor performance yet I decided to hold. But that will soon change at some point in the near future. The market is doing great and it’s just a matter of time before I sense an opportunity, and that opportunity will be sponsored by Nike. Again, I’m not suggesting that Nike is a bad company, it’s just lost its cache. I know many people in the sports arena, and many sports enthusiasts, and they’re not in the Nike camp anymore. Nike is actually doing better in the secondary market, their classic Jordan’s are highly collectible and yield a premium. But they definitely lost their edge with new buyers. I’ve seen this movie before with Disney and to an extent with PayPal. These two companies didn’t “suddenly” collapse, they just slowly slowly faded away into oblivion. And of course no one knows for certain, we all make our business decisions in regards to stocks based on probabilities. And the probabilities of Nike ceasing to matter for me are very likely at this point and of course I could be wrong. I just see more opportunities out there with other companies, mainly in the tech sector which are very very stretched right now
I love our little debates here, W & I. W.. CLEARLY a more experienced investor than me, has a very strong sentiment and knows where to move his money. Me, I’m very careful with going all in all at once, always waiting for a discount lol. Also, we’ve always debated companies, kinda like Siskel & Ebert, strong different opinions but always with respect. Love it! Happy Fourth of July everyone!!
Good update zukodany. Sounds like you have a plan. I too, enjoy the discussions. It is always interesting to see the perspectives held, whether they are different or not. Companies change over time. Sometimes it still aligns with what we expect and sometimes they do not. Those reasons and decisions are evaluated differently by each individual investor. I don't think it makes anyone wrong or right. What matters is, if the company you have partnered with is matching what you expect of it. This is different for most every one.
Yup absolutely! There are also events that happen throughout a company’s history that they quickly walk back. I usually call it noise. I think that Target & Bud are experiencing this now. They’ve made some mistakes that SHOULDN'T impact their long term business prospects and they can walk it back almost immediately. A company like Disney is so far gone into the “noise” that it’s already a symbol of their business model which will likely follow them for generations. I don’t think that Nike is at Disney levels of product annihilation, but they have undoubtedly alienated a significant amount of clientele throughout the years.
Agree with all the above NIKE discussion......I am just willing to wait for another 12-18 months to make a decision on the stock. I dont like to jump early on selling a long time holding. On the other hand......I dont like to ride a stock down just because it is a long time holding. I need to see more earnings to see how much of what is happening is pandemic related versus the other.....three..... issues I mentioned in posts above. In terms of NIKE......as to NOW and future earnings......the pandemic excuse is over.
I like this little article. My CRYSTAL BALL is bigger than your CRYSTAL BALL. Wall Street’s ‘Crystal Ball’ Shatters as Stocks Stage Big Rally Bearish and wrong is ‘worst place to be’ as tech fuels S&P 500 JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley strategists maintain gloomy outlooks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ystal-ball-shatters-as-stocks-stage-big-rally (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As the trillion-dollar AI rally gathers pace, pity the humans on Wall Street trying to figure out this gravity-defying market. With the S&P 500 Index staging an improbable 16% advance this year, being both bearish and wrong is making life awkward for the people paid to predict where equities will go next. After being blindsided by the resilience of the US economy thus far, humility is the order of the day for the sell-side pros who remain at loggerheads on what’s ahead. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin expects stocks will gain further, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic have warned investors to stay away. At Bank of America Corp., there’s a disagreement under the same roof, with Savita Subramanian emerging as one of the most optimistic market voices as colleague Michael Hartnett says a renewed downswing is coming. One thing’s for sure: The S&P 500 has already blown through its average year-end price target. Strategists are currently expecting the benchmark to end 2023 just below 4,100, with Friday’s 4,450.38 close leaving it 8.5% above that figure. The last time the gauge traded above the consensus target like this was in the pandemic mania of September 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. No wonder some equity analysts are sounding a little defensive, hoping their prognostications will be vindicated soon enough as hawkish Federal Reserve policy bites. Others are issuing words of humility to clients, expressing their temptation to nudge targets higher as the tech megacaps names surge higher. Those who are getting things largely right are letting off steam, calling out naysayers for being too clever for their own good. “Bears make you smart — but bulls make you money,” said BMO Capital Markets’ Brian Belski, who recently raised his end-year target to 4,550 from 4,300. Narrow leadership, recession risk and downward earnings revisions are some of the key concerns leveled by skeptics. Plus, in the second half of the year something big could break in markets, or in the consumption and investment cycle – vindicating those currently cautious on risk assets. Yet, at least for now, the market continues to power higher and data suggests the economy can avoid a recession. “I am certainly one of the investors who did not see it coming and did not expect it, even when it started, to last or go this far,” said Liz Young, SoFi’s head of investment strategy. “People that were cautious are kind of looking at the market and saying, am I missing something?” At Citigroup Inc., Scott Chronert points to “a lack of concrete earnings revision support” in deciding not to jack up his target. “As enticing as it may be to follow the tape and nudge our year-end target higher, we just do not see the fundamental justification for this, yet,” he said. In these weird post-pandemic times — where the economic and market cycle upends conventional wisdom — bears who appeared to be geniuses one quarter risk looking like cranks the next. Meanwhile, those who’ve earned fame betting on the tech boom are more than a little paranoid that their bullish outlooks will seem bubblicious if things go south. More broadly, when it comes to stock market calls, there are four quadrants: bullish, bearish, right, and wrong, according to Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley’s former chief US equity strategist. “The worst quadrant to be in when you work at one of those firms is bearish and wrong because you didn’t really enable your upside capture for clients,” said Parker, who now heads up Trivariate Research. “I’ve been there, and I lived in all four quadrants – it’s a hard place to be.” Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz is feeling the heat. He still sees the S&P 500 plunging to 3,225 by the end of this year, the gloomiest target out there. He has no plans to change his outlook, for now. In his view, the recent upward revisions to strategist targets resemble the momentum chasing in 2000 and 2007, when he says sell-siders pushed investors in front of a “proverbial bus.” On the flipside, Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.’s John Stoltzfus is enjoying better days. At one point last year he forecast the S&P 500 would end 2022 at 5,330. It closed at 3,839.5. This year he entered with a target of 4,400 — and he’s thinking about raising it while awaiting further inflation and employment data after the Fed skipped on a June rate hike. When the market bottomed out in October, “what we think happened at that point is a lot of the negative projection that had been put out by the bears in 2022 essentially took everything that was wrong or uncertain and projected it into infinity,” he said. “That happens in bear markets.” Meanwhile, Parker says it makes more sense to be cautious than it did seven months ago, given the rising stretch across US stocks and deteriorating credit. But abruptly shifting views risks undermining the credibility of a strategist’s framework. “I just don’t think you ever want to be a perma-anything,” he said. “Because data changes, and I think you have to react to and absorb the new data and fit that into your thesis.”" MY COMMENT I have an alternate theory for the PROBABILITY DEFYING wrong calls by all the experts and economists that we see daily. EITHER.....they really are MORONS......a pretty safe bet. OR........they are PUSHING the company line that benefits their short term trading. OR.....BOTH. Yes there are plenty of honest people out there trying to call the market. What we see with them is the inability of HUMANS to make this sort of complex call with any accuracy. This is like market timing.......impossible.
A very positive little story for TSLA. Tesla Q2 deliveries easily top estimates as price cuts take effect https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...ates-as-price-cuts-take-effect-163826255.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Tesla (TSLA) released its second quarter production and delivery numbers on Sunday, easily beating expectations as the effects of the electric-vehicle maker’s price cuts, combined with federal EV tax credits, are boosting sales. For the quarter, Tesla reported global production of 479,700 units with deliveries of 466,140. The delivery figure easily topped Wall Street consensus estimates of 448,599 units, as well as the prior quarter’s total of 422,875. Both production and delivery totals for the second quarter were all-time records for Tesla. Analysts and investors focus more on delivery totals because they most closely track sales totals, which Tesla does not release. Breaking down delivery totals, Tesla delivered 446,915 Model 3 and Model Ys and 19,225 higher-priced Model S and Model X vehicles. The company also said 5% of its sales were subject to lease accounting. Tesla’s second quarter delivery beat indicates the company’s price cuts are continuing to boost sales both in the US and abroad, though questions remain as to how deep a cut profits will take. Tesla also got another boost from the federal government in Q2 as well, as all trims of the Model 3 sedan qualified for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. Separately, Wall Street analysts in the past two weeks have been downgrading Tesla shares after a massive run-up in the stock following big gains in the tech sector. Many analysts attributed the run-up to the big gains made by AI-related stocks, with analysts cautioning Tesla wasn’t the big AI-play many investors seemed to believe. Analysts like Mark Delaney at Goldman and Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley see the stock as fairly valued at the moment. Finally, Tesla announced it would be releasing second quarter earnings results after the bell on July 19th." MY COMMENT It is amazing how many comments I see disrespecting this number or TSLA. It is OBVIOUS that the financial news is skewing commentary in a negative way toward MUSK and TSLA. The ugly monster...... POLITICS and BIAS.......rearing its head in market coverage.
As noted above.....super short week this week. A short day on Monday with the markets closing early. The markets are than closed for the 4th of July. SO we have about 3.5 days of open markets this week. With many people taking Monday off and the mid week holiday....it should be an EXTREMELY shallow and low volume market week.
Huge open for me and tsla today, I guess u can tell I’m heavily invested in tsla by now. Hello 50.20% ytd again!
