The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this......a real long term strategy in the early stages.

    Elon Musk rebrands Twitter to ‘X,’ replaces iconic bird logo

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/elon-musk-rebrands-twitter-to-x-replaces-iconic-bird-logo.html

    "Key Points
    • Twitter owner Elon Musk officially changed the company’s famous bird logo to an “X” on Monday as part of a sweeping rebrand.
    • Musk, who acquired the platform for $44 billion late last year, wrote in a post Sunday that the company would soon “bid adieu to the twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds.”
    • As of Monday, the domain X.com directs users to Twitter’s homepage, though Twitter.com also remains live."
    MY COMMENT

    This man is creating an empire of "X" companies. There is some real strategic and long term planing going on here.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This has the potential to penetrate a whole new market of over a BILLION people.

    Tesla to discuss factory plan for new $24,000 car with India commerce minister, says report

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/tes...with-india-commerce-minister-says-report.html

    MY COMMENT

    This will be good news if it happens. It will be a good thing for the company if they can pull off becoming the MODEL T of the electric car era. I dont care about their margins. Compared to the car industry in general....they are doing just fine. People forget how new this company is and how they are quickly building out. I dont think MUSK has any concern about their margins....he is focused on adding to the infrastructure and manufacturing capacity of this company.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just looked at my account for the day. A nice GOOD gain for me today. Only a single stock down so far today......TSLA.

    I was looking at my couple of accounts and the rest that I manage. With the recent gains.....NVDA.....now makes up 12% to 14% of each account.

    This does not bother me and I intend to simply let it ride. this company has a long way to go before it becomes a mature company.
     
    #16323 WXYZ, Jul 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2023
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have been spending all morning doing finances and looking at accounts to get back up to speed after not looking for a week.

    As to my account I see that I did make a positive amount of money last week......or at least as of right now. I went from a YTD gain of 36.48% on July 14 to a YTD gain today of +36.552%.

    I have also been doing cash flow planing for the rest of the year.

    We recently purchased a nice Western Bronze Sculpture.......and.....I needed to plan when to reimburse the credit card for that purchase........I will do so on the August bill. I try to put any sort of purchase that is over about $1000....on the 2% cash back credit card. That sculpture will join the other Western Bronzes that we own.

    I do a lot of cash flow analysis over the year. So far this year we are right on budget.....with a small reserve over what I expected. It has been a good year for us....we added one historic Impressionistic oil painting.......and three bronze sculptures. The reason I say it has been a good year is that.......even with some nice art purchases.......we did not BUST our budget.
     
    #16324 WXYZ, Jul 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2023
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    After the past 12 months of trending UP market.....here is where we are now.

    US stocks have rallied so hard that the market is setting its sights on all-time highs once again

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-rallied-hard-market-171520869.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks have reached a level that might have seemed unthinkable during the lows of last year's bear market.

    In the space of just nine months, the benchmark S&P 500 index has erased nearly all its losses from a hellish 2022.

    It now trades just 260 points, or around 6%, below the record high it hit last January, while other key gauges like the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average have also racked up major gains.

    Cooling inflation, a massive rise in investor interest in AI, and forecasters abandoning their recession predictions based on positive economic data have all helped power stocks' 2023 surge.

    The so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocksApple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta Platforms – have led the rally, with each trading at or near record highs as of Friday's closing bell.

    Whether that can last is likely to be the major question for analysts over the second half of 2023.

    Some like Fundstrat perma-bull Tom Lee expect the S&P 500's surge to help it notch new highs by the end of the year, but others point to further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the risk of an economic downturn as factors that could kill the rally."

    MY COMMENT

    "Risk of an economic down-turn........you have got to be kidding. NOT this year.......at best perhaps 9-12 months from now.......but I really doubt it. The FED has no more room to raise rates after perhaps one more. AND....earnings are going to escalate over the next 2-3 quarters.

    I find it interesting that the SP500 is now about 6% below the all time high. In my account I am at the same place.....about 6% from the all time account high.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    By the way I added 17 shares of NVDA this morning. I want to ride this stock through their golden era. At a price of $447 per share.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like stocks are backing off some as we head to the bell. This seems to be common as we approach earnings in the big tech world. I still have a nice gain but now have two stocks down......NKE and AMZN.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice gain to start the week today. I was in the green with eight of ten stocks. Those in the red were .......NKE and AMZN. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.12% today.

    The markets waffled around a little bit today......but managed to stay positive most of the day. All in all.....a very SOLID day....... to start FED week and big tech earnings.
     
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  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Easy day today. Not much noise to deal with. That of course will change as our week goes on with the rehashing of everything FED. Earnings will be (should be) the main show anyway.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The GUTS of earnings starts today.....GOOGLE and MICROSOFT will report after the bell. I own both. I will also get an earnings report from HONEYWELL this week. After next week I will be half way done with earnings for my ten stocks.

    I have not heard a peep out of any of these companies......so.....I assume that earnings will likely beat OR meet expectations.

    As usual there is no guarantee that a beat will result in short term price gains for any of these stocks. The market will focus on some obscure part of the earnings or some forward looking statement to the exclusion of the big picture. As a long term investor investor I prefer the.....BIG PICTURE.
     
    #16330 WXYZ, Jul 25, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2023
    Smokie likes this.
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this little article.

    The Broadening

    https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/07/24/weekly-market-pulse-the-broadening/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "This market rally from the lows of October 2022 continues to surprise and impress. It started off as a very narrow rally where a few big tech names were pushing the S&P 500 higher, but there is much more participation now. This stock market run has really broadened out as even real estate is performing once again. 75% of stocks in the S&P are now above their 200-day moving average, while 88% are above their 50-day MA. These are spectacular numbers, but as we all know, nothing just goes up forever. We are probably getting close to a short-term top here, especially given that 50-day MA reading.

    The classic weak dollar plays are (finally) starting to emerge. Small cap stocks, value stocks, and commodities all had a good week. As a matter of fact, small cap stocks and real estate (another weak dollar play) have outperformed US large cap stocks over the last month. Real estate in particular has been an unloved asset class for some time now, but there are reasons you want to invest soon. The work-from-home/return-to-office mess is really a US-centric dilemma, and one that afflicts only certain demographic areas of the country. Vacancy rates are healthy in various regions in the US, and as for the rest of the world, they already went back to the office. Vacancy rates in Europe are at normal pre-COVID levels. There are, as there always are, places with issues (London Canary Wharf for instance) but overall international real estate doesn’t have the same issues as the US.



    Environment
    [​IMG]

    After dropping over 2% last week, the US Dollar rebounded some to take it back above its Bollinger band. You have to be a seller of the dollar here if it can’t clear the 102 level (intermediate-term downtrend line) soon. The longer-term trend remains higher but it finds itself in a precarious position. A tick under 98 and that will be at risk as well.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    As for the 10-year Treasury yield, its uptrend remains on track, both in the short and intermediate term, this following last week’s close to 6% drop. Over the last few days, the 50-day moving average crossed over the 200-day MA in what is known as a Golden Cross. In technical terms, it tends to be a bullish signal when the index holds above the 50-day MA (as it did this past week) amidst the commencement of a Golden Cross. The big bond rout may not be over just yet.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The 2-Year Treasury yield is also trying to break higher but still finds itself below its March highs. Could we retest that level this coming week?

    [​IMG]



    Markets
    [​IMG]

    Commodities led all asset classes for the week, with US small caps a close second. Crude oil was up 2.2%, natural gas was up 6.9%, and most agricultural commodities (wheat in particular) were also higher because of the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal and Russia’s renewed threats towards any seaborne vessel in the Black Sea.

    [​IMG]

    US small caps have been on a tear since its own Golden Cross technical signal last month. It now finds itself testing the recent high of 208. A pullback to the 200 level, as represented by VB (Alhambra owns), is likely.

    Regionally, non-US markets were mostly down with the exception of Latin America (1.7% gain for the week). Latin America’s outperformance was due to its commodity-centric economies, while the rebounding US Dollar impacted the rest of the world. Japan was the big loser, down 1.4%. The Yen fell at the end of the week on speculation the BOJ would leave policy basically unchanged. We at Alhambra are a bit skeptical of that and we remain bullish on Japan.

    Europe continues to benefit from a falling US Dollar, as it was down only slightly even after a big 6% gain last week. Emerging markets, pulled down by China, were one of the worst performers in the last week (-1.35%).

    Now onto equity style: Value outperformed Growth in the last week, by a spread of over 3% in the large cap space. Large value was up strongly as energy (3.5%), healthcare (3.45%), and financials (2.95%) surged in the last week. While growth (ie. tech, communication services) is the story of 2023, we do believe that value will be the place to be for the next few years.

    [​IMG]

    Market/Economic Indicators
    [​IMG]

    Bonds were down on the week as rates rebounded strongly. This despite the weak economic data trickling in in the last few days. Retail sales were up just 0.2% and 1.5% year-over-year and that isn’t adjusted for inflation. A gain of 0.5% was expected by economists. Ex. gas and autos were slightly better at 0.3% but still disappointing. Industrial production was down 0.5% when a 0.1% gain was expected. Production has been restrained by a soft export market, efforts to work down inventories, and more limited consumer spending. Industrial production is not a particularly useful tool to predict recessions though; the index remains essentially unchanged since December of 2007.

    [​IMG]

    All this to say that despite the risks and uncertainties that prevail and absent some seismic market/economic event, recession is just not on the horizon. Credit spreads have narrowed back to levels that reigned prior to the start of Fed rate hikes in the spring of last year. There just isn’t enough stress in the credit markets to back away from the markets at this moment. Now that doesn’t mean that we can’t get a correction or two in certain segments of the market in the coming months. As a matter of fact, we still expect some kind of a sell-off in the large-cap indexes later this summer as sentiment is getting a bit frothy and too bullish given the uncertainties at play. But this is exactly why we diversify across multiple asset classes, including real estate, commodities, bonds, international stocks, and small-cap stocks. While one asset class zigs, the other may zag, and over time you have a portfolio with solid and comparable returns** while taking less risk overall."

    MY COMMENT

    Lots of good....."stuff".....going on right now. So far the start of earnings is outstanding. Treasury rates especially the ten year are staying in a small and normal range......amazing considering all the rate hikes of the past year. ALL the major averages....representing all classes of stocks.....are soaring. People are traveling and spending money.

    YES......there will be NO recession this year.
     
    #16331 WXYZ, Jul 25, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2023
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For people like me that are on Social Security this is a big issue. We want our raise in early October to be a good one. Right now we are in the three months that will determine that raise......July, August, and September.

    What Will the Social Security COLA Raise Be for 2024?

    https://money.usnews.com/money/reti...ll-the-social-security-cola-raise-be-for-2024

    "What Is the Projected Social Security COLA Raise for 2024?

    Some experts predict a COLA raise of 3% for 2024.

    The Social Security Administration uses the percentage changes of the consumer price index during the third quarter from one year to the next when calculating the upcoming COLA.

    The consumer price index for June 2023 came in at 3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rate indicates that, on average, the items indexed rose in price by 3% during the previous 12 months. It was the smallest increase since the period ending in March 2021. Overall inflation in 2023 has been lower than in 2022, which saw 40-year highs such as 9.1% in June of that year.

    The declining inflation rate informs most economists’ predictions that the 2024 COLA will fall between 2.7% to 3%,” says Krieg Tidemann, assistant professor of economics at Niagara University. The Senior Citizens League has estimated the COLA could be 3% for 2024."

    MY COMMENT

    I will take 3%.....gladly. It might sound low but.......it will be one of the larger increases I have received during the time I have been on Social Security.
     
    #16332 WXYZ, Jul 25, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2023
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another good little bit of TRUTH.

    How Soft Landing Talk Illustrates Skeptical Sentiment

    https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...-landing-talk-illustrates-skeptical-sentiment

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Recession is still a popular forecast.

    As the Fed’s meeting next week looms ever closer, and odd thing has happened: People are becoming a bit more open to the possibility rate hikes aren’t causing a recession. Some even claim the Fed has achieved the mythical “soft landing” of slowing inflation without inflicting major economic damage. Yet the cheer isn’t universal. Some warn further rate hikes could make the heretofore soft landing a hard one, and most economists still see recession striking within a year. In our view, this is another way to see that sentiment, while thawing, remains quite skeptical.

    Whenever sentiment shifts quickly like this, we get a little bit suspicious. Even if it shifts toward a view we largely agree with, we are well aware recessions typically strike when few expect them to. We also suspect nothing tempts the stock market to be The Great Humiliator quite like the words mission accomplished. So in a vacuum, a growing belief that the Fed has managed what so many thought impossible mere months ago could amount to complacency.

    After reading through all the recent soft-landing commentary, however, we don’t actually see much complacency … or tremendous cheer. Just some observations that, while technically accurate, are grounded in misperceptions about how the Fed really affects the economy. Crucially, no one seems to be extrapolating a super-sunny outlook from these observations. Rather, we are seeing the same old recession isn’t here yet, but the risk of one in the next year is still high. In their July survey of economists, Bloomberg found forecasters see a 60% chance of recession in the next year.

    This is all par for the course. All year, forecasters have punted their recession projections out another 6 – 12 months as economic data refused to cooperate. It is a way of acknowledging reality without reckoning with being wrong, which is one of the hardest things for humans to do. GDP didn’t contract last Q3 or Q4, so pundits pushed their recession forecasts to early 2023. Then Q1 GDP grew, so they pushed again, to late 2023. Q2 GDP doesn’t come out until next Thursday, but the preponderance of data out thus far suggest it, too, will show growth—so economists are shifting their projections again.

    The only new twist this time is the apparent need to include the Fed in the mix. After all, most of these recession forecasts hinged on rate hikes. Quite obviously, that hasn’t come true. Nor has unemployment jumped, defying all the (in our view, flawed) models linking rate hikes to higher unemployment and slower inflation. Yet inflation has slowed anyway. The only explanation for this, for those steeped in modern economic orthodoxy, is that the Fed got it right thus far … but still risks crashing the economy if it keeps hiking too much from here.

    We have a different view: Inflation is down and GDP is still growing despite the Fed, not because of it. Fed policy right now actually isn’t terribly disinflationary. It may look that way, with short rates higher than long rates. On paper, this should be contractionary. But that is true only if the negative spread between short and long-term interest rates translates to a slim or inverse gap between banks’ funding costs and lending rates. Because banks—especially large banks—can still get away with paying depositors much less than the fed-funds rate and long-term lending rates are up, loan growth hasn’t suffered materially. It has slowed, but it remains faster than the inflation rate and is therefore still growing on an inflation-adjusted basis. That is expansionary, which is good, but it also suggests the Fed has little to no control over money supply and velocity right now, the merits of which are debatable.

    This isn’t the only instance of commentators trying in dubious ways to catch up with the data. We saw it earlier this week, when The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the 15th straight month. LEI is normally the best leading indicator around, and it is pretty abnormal for a slide this long not to precede a recession. Instead of investigate why it is potentially sending false signals this time, pundits mostly interpreted it as correctly previewing a slowing US economy. Thing is, that isn’t really how LEI works. It is usually good at signaling direction but tends not to say much about magnitude. When we dive into its components, we see it correctly signaled a downturn in the goods-producing portion of the US economy, which fell in late 2022 and turned down again this spring. But LEI overemphasizes goods while ignoring services entirely, and services is the US’s economic engine, generating over 70% of GDP.[ii] Data like purchasing managers’ indexes suggest services also happens to continue growing at a fine clip, which we think explains the disconnect between LEI and actual output.[iii]

    The good news is the acceptance of continued US growth is tentative and begrudging, not a rousing chorus. It strikes us as a manifestation of what recent sentiment surveys hint at. If people acknowledge things are sort of mostly ok now but will soon get worse, that isn’t blooming optimism. But nor is it the deep pessimism that reigned as stocks bottomed last October—and nor would we expect such raging gloom over nine months into a new bull market. This is usually around when people start accepting that the worst didn’t happen while also questioning how much is left in the tank. No shock, in our view, that this is happening as stocks flirt with breakeven, when the temptation to flee usually surges.

    We think that would be a mistake even if a recession does loom next year. Markets move on expected events over the next 3 – 30 months. 2024 would be within 3 and 30 months of 2022’s bear market, during which the vast majority of economists projected recession. So we think it is fair to say stocks priced those projections during the downturn, which is pretty normal. Stocks are also well aware those projections have been revised rather than erased, so logic dictates they must be priced in already. To deliver a new, negative shock capable of sending stocks to new lows, any recession would have to be much worse than the forecasts markets have already baked in. This is possible, but we see no rational basis for declaring it likely today. And in investing, it is probabilities that matter—not mere possibilities.

    So for now, just enjoy your favorite financial news outlet being a little less gloomy, and know the thaw is consistent with a young bull market."

    MY COMMENT

    I dont see a recession this year. BUT.....I really dont care. I dont invest according to economic forecasting or predictions. I simply stay fully invested all the time.

    Now......does the lack of recession mean that we will not see a market correction? NO......corrections are a normal part of the market process. They happen nearly EVERY year. Although with the BOOMING market we are seeing this year and the recognition of the BULL MARKET.....I do believe that it is likely that we will slide through the rest of this year without a correction. BAD NEWS....for those waiting for a market drop to reenter the markets.
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Some good lessons in this little article.

    How to Invest Like the 1%

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/07/how-to-invest-like-the-1/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "A lot of investors assume once you amass a large fortune that you’re welcomed into some secret club that unlocks the holy grail of investment opportunities.

    Sure, there are plenty of really rich people who invest in excluding, expensive, complex strategies but the majority of the wealthy class has most of their money in normal asset classes like stocks and bonds.

    Here’s a piece I wrote for Fortune about how the top 1% invest their money.

    *******

    In 1989, the top 1% of households in the United States controlled a little less than 23% of the wealth in this country. That number has now reached nearly 32%. By contrast, the bottom 90% have seen their share of wealth drop from 40% in 1989 to 31% today.

    The rich have gotten richer, and they are extending their lead.

    You could explain this rising inequality on various government policies but there is an investing component here as well. Many people assume there must be secret investment opportunities reserved for the wealthy. Surely, once you make more money there are exclusive deals, alternative investments, and superior investment managers at your disposal?

    This may be the case for a handful of investors, but if we look at how the top 1% and top 10% allocate their assets, it shows a much simpler path to wealth.

    The top 10% holds nearly 70% of U.S. wealth:


    [​IMG]
    These numbers from the Federal Reserve are broken down by net worth, which is simply calculated by taking the assets and subtracting the liabilities.

    When we break things down by assets and liabilities, you can see that while the top 10% controls 70% of the assets, the bottom 90% holds 75% of the debt:

    [​IMG]
    The bottom 50% by wealth percentile owns just 6% of assets but a whopping 32% of liabilities.

    Ownership in the stock market is still more uneven. The top 1% owns more than 53% of stocks while the top 10% holds 89% of the total:


    [​IMG]
    Stocks are the asset class that historically has the highest long-term returns so it makes sense that the gap between the haves and the have-nots has grown.

    Things are far more equal when it comes to the housing market:

    [​IMG]
    While the bottom 90% by wealth holds just 11% of the stock market, they control 56% of the housing market. The bottom 50% owns less than 1% of the stock market but nearly 12% of the housing market.

    This helps explain why the liabilities for the bottom 90% are so much higher since most of these households have mortgage debts to repay.

    You can get a better sense of the differences between the various wealth percentiles by looking at their allocations to stocks and housing relative to their total assets:

    [​IMG]
    Housing makes up more than 52% of financial assets for the bottom 50% bu just 13% of total wealth for the top 1%.

    The top 1% also has a higher share in things like cash, bonds, and private businesses. But you can see from the chart that most of their wealth is invested in the stock market, while housing is by far the biggest asset for those in the bottom 90%.

    So what can we learn about investing like the 1% when it comes to how they allocate their assets?

    Don’t concentrate your investments. While the bottom 90% has most of their wealth concentrated in a single asset–their home–the top 1% has a more balanced approach. A house will likely always be the biggest asset for the majority of Americans, but it’s important to diversify your money into other assets like stocks and bonds.

    Don’t go into a lot of debt. There are good and bad forms of debt. Most of us need to utilize mortgage debt because not many people have that much money lying around in cash. But it’s important to note that debt compounds against your net worth much like stock returns compound in your favor.

    Buy stocks. Not everyone has the ability to own their own business, but you can own a share of corporate profits by investing in the stock market. The stock market remains the simplest way to build wealth over the long term by riding the coattails of the biggest and best companies in the world."

    MY COMMENT

    Financial security and a good future for your family is actually very simple. First it requires DISCIPLINE.

    After that it is simply recognizing that over the long term there are two assets that will drive your financial success:

    STOCK ownership.
    HOME ownership.

    Both of these assets are the KEY. Add in limiting DEBT....and there you have it. Yes....it really is that simple.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Markets looking good after about ten minutes. Now that is the extreme short term.....ten minutes.

    NASDAQ is the star of the early minutes....up by about 0.42%.

    We are looking at BIG TECH day today......GOOGL and MSFT earnings. AND.....FED hike day tomorrow.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The day so far.

    Dow is little changed after 11-day rally as traders assess earnings

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks were little changed Tuesday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled to build on its longest winning streak in more than six years, while traders weighed the latest earnings reports.

    The Dow traded 24 points lower, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was marginally higher, while the Nasdaq Composite
    advanced 0.3%.

    General Motors shares fell more than 5% even after the automaker hiked its full-year earnings guidance. General Electric, meanwhile, climbed nearly 5% on the back of stronger-than-expected revenue for the second quarter.

    Megacap tech names Alphabet and Microsoftare scheduled to announce their quarterly results after the close.

    Nearly 130 S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter earnings thus far. Of those names, about 79% have exceeded analyst expectations, FactSet data shows.


    The Dow on Monday rose more than 183 points, or 0.5%, marking its 11th consecutive winning session. The 30-stock index also hit its highest level since April 2022 and had its highest close since February 2022. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

    While a stronger-than-expected earnings season has helped maintain the market rally, Wall Street is also carefully awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Fed fund futures data shows a 98% probability of a quarter-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are waiting for Chair Jerome Powell’s statements on his outlook for the economy as it tackles inflation.

    Clearly, the market has a significant amount of momentum. … But we think the fundamental backdrop is still quite negative. Stocks are not bound by any sort of fundamentals,” Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald’s head of equity derivatives and cross asset, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”

    “We think that the economic risk and the earnings risk [are] one-sided. Meaning that if everything remains okay, then what you see right now – which is sort of subdued, but steady growth — would remain. But we think the risk is really the downside for economic growth,” Johnston added. "

    MY COMMENT

    OK.....so now the BEATS are up to about 79%. This is an epic start to earnings.

    Isn't it FUN to be back to a NORMAL market? Yes we had a dismal year and a recession last year.....even though the media and experts REFUSED to call it a recession. BUT.....that is the past......we have moved on. In the end it is all about PROBABILITY. History tells us that the UP market years will be about 70% of the time compared to the down years. ENJOY THE RIDE.
     
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  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW.....I have a nice one day gain on my little addition of 17 shares of NVDA yesterday. SELL,SELL, SELL.

    NOPE......I am looking at this company as a primary long term holding.

    I am now at the point where I will....probably.....NOT...... add more shares. I anticipate that rising share price in this stock will cause it to continue to creep up as the largest percentage holding in all my accounts.

    As the stock gets into the $500 to $600 range....I am anticipating the potential for a stock split.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Having just looked.....I have another nice gain so far today. I will try to hang onto that for the rest of the day.

    Six of my ten stocks are giving me that gain. The four that are not cooperating are.....HON, GOOGL, TSLA, and NKE.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    BE HAPPY.......we are into a NEW YEAR.

    The 2022 dire market is over......finally. BUT.....I am sure investor PTSD lingers and many are still experiencing a lingering SHOCK from last year.

    NOW.....we get to have some fun as we....."ENDURE".....the BULL MARKET.

    I do like what we have gone through over the past couple of years. It is a good lesson in the value of LONG TERM INVESTING. YOU have to sit through the bad years in order to capture and compound those sudden gains that make up the basis for investing success.

    In fact......look back at the past five years. This thread documents......basically.....the past FIVE YEARS. This thread is NOW a long term investing record of the events and markets of the past five years. EVEN with all the negative and abnormal events of the past five years........this thread documents the POWER of LONG TERM INVESTING.

    That is why I created this thread....and....why I post all my market moves or lack of market moves. To create a record of the POWER of being a long term investor. AND....to also create a record of how the BRUTAL NEGATIVITY of the short term is NOT relevant to investors that have the GUTS to stick it out for the long term.

    Of course this all assumes that what you are investing in is rational and realistic.
     
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