One thing I am sure is happening.....it will be a BANNER DAY for the day traders and the micro second AI QUANT trading platforms. This is the perfect type of news event that they LOVE.
A very relevant article for today. How to Make Financial News Work For You Learning through others’ experiences. https://www.morningstar.com/financial-advice/why-read-financial-news (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Looking Backwards Most investment research recommends what did work. Consider, for example, the wave of 2022 articles that touted inflation hedges. A typical case was this May 2022 article, which featured eight potential investments. Six appear below. (The other two suggestions, exchange-traded funds and mutual funds, were too vague to analyze.) 1) Precious Metals 2) Commodities 3) Stocks 4) Real Estate 5) TIPS 6) Cryptocurrencies (Stocks were something of an odd choice, in that a) they had fallen during early 2022 precisely because of inflation, and b) they were mainstream investments. Buying more equities would not have improved portfolio diversification. However, their inclusion was valid: Over time, most stocks do ward off inflation, because companies pass their increased costs along to their customers as price hikes.) The article’s timing was less than ideal. Since that article was published, the only one of those assets to outpace inflation was the item that most investors already owned: U.S. equities. Everything else either lost money outright, or in bitcoin’s case, eked out a tiny gain but nevertheless lost ground to inflation. What the People Want I point no fingers. My purpose in citing this article was not to identify bad journalism. The author’s recommendations were generally sound, written in response to what were logical fears. Besides, the author had merely given readers what they wished. At the time, investors eagerly sought advice about how to invest during high inflation. Which leads to a key point: Financial news does not usually err because journalists advance their own agendas. The problem stems instead from giving investors what they want. People watch train wrecks. They devour true-crime stores. And they wish to read about investment dangers. The problem with that mindset, of course, is that, as Yogi Berra once stated, it’s tough to make predictions, particularly about the future. To cite another sage, Paul Samuelson famously quipped that “Economists have predicted nine of the past five recessions.” He was too kind; a more accurate ratio would be 10 of the past three. Anticipating pitfalls before they arrive is an extremely valuable skill. Unfortunately, as evidenced by the poor results of tactical asset allocation funds, the track record of those who have attempted that task is woeful. What mostly remains, then, are discussions of events that have already happened: rising inflation, regional-bank woes, political battles. Unfortunately, as we have seen, such research has limited value. It is not that those articles are consistently wrong. If so, they would be helpful, because investors could profit by betting against the grain. Rather, their outcomes are random. Sometimes, as with 2021′s features on inflation or this spring’s Silicon Valley Bank seizure, the signals occur early enough to be constructive. Other times, they do not. The Counterargument Writing this column has thus far depressed me. Who would doubt one’s own occupation? (The most believable Hollywood villains are those who regard themselves as heroes.) Reflection, however, improves my mood. Rebutting this harsh critique of financial journalism is the undeniable fact that financial information has never been more available, courtesy of the internet, yet today’s investors act more sensibly than did their predecessors. To be sure, some were tempted into speculation by the great bull market that followed 2020′s coronavirus slump. However, the excesses came from the visible minority, not the silent majority. Sum all the moneys placed into meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and Robinhood Markets HOOD, and the result fails to match the amount of assets held by Vanguard’s equity-index funds. Most retail investors just chugged along, doing much the same through the upturn as they did during the selloff. The same pattern held through 2022. After suffering net redemptions through the first half of the year, bond funds regained support in the second half. For their part, net inflows into equity funds were positive for seven months out of 12, finishing the calendar year slightly in the black. And across the board, the purchases were sound, with investors continuing to favor low-cost, broadly diversified funds. The Better Path How to reconcile the ongoing demand for hot investment news with what has been relatively calm shareholder behavior? To judge from the emails that I receive from my readers, who if atypically informed (they teach me much) perhaps possess typical attitudes, the answer is that most investors have become Internet-savvy. They filter their results, reading much but acting sparingly. While that may appear to be wasted effort, I would suggest instead that the habit is sneakily beneficial. Beginning investors are dangerously susceptible to narratives. They can easily be convinced, either by alluring tales that appeal to their greed or frightening ones that trigger their fears, that “this time is different.” Because the standard investment wisdom no longer applies, they are tempted into making portfolio changes. Such trades are unlikely to be successful. Experience, however, tempers judgments. Over time, investors learn not to expect financial certainty, that the current news cycle will soon be replaced by another, and that the prognostications of experts are to be consumed with many grains of salt, if not an outright spoonful. That process is hastened by education—in particular, by reading what people said and thought at a given time, and then later considering the correctness (or not) of those beliefs. If that theory holds, my value comes as much from wrong as it does from being right. I hope that is the case, because the former is much easier to accomplish." MY COMMENT A good description of this thread and the daily posting. YES....I do like to keep up with the current mood and what is being discussed in the financial media. I like to be informed. BUT.......I virtually NEVER act on any of this stuff. It might be fun....it might be interesting......it might even once in a while be accurate......but....it is NOT what a rational investor should be taking action based on. Trying to give any credence to the day to day BALONEY.....will simply give you an extreme case of investor WHIPLASH.
HERE is the economic news of the day......that no one will care about. US private payrolls beat expectations in July, ADP says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-private-payrolls-beat-expectations-122239640.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in July, pointing to continued labor market resilience that could shield the economy from a recession. Private payrolls rose by 324,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Data for June was revised lower to show 455,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 497,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would increase by 189,000. The labor market is only slowing gradually despite 525 basis points worth of interest rate increases from the Fed since March 2022. The government reported on Tuesday that there were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. A survey last month showed consumers very bullish about the labor market in July. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the release on Friday of the Labor Department's more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for July. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 179,000 jobs in July. With further gains anticipated in government employment, total nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 200,000 jobs last month after increasing by 209,000 in June." MY COMMENT The expectations versus reality on this sort of data show that it is totally meaningless. BUT....if it is accurate....it is another indicator of......NO RECESSION.
I had to look early......nothing like a good train wreck. I was expecting to see ten for ten stocks down today. My victory for the day......at least the early day.....was a single stock Up....HON.
Looks like some of the AMD earnings filtered over into the other CHIP stocks today. Although, there is plenty of red everywhere else today at the moment too.
The "credit downgrade" news is out in full force as WXYZ mentioned earlier. Take a look at this response from FED Treasury Sec Yellen..... Secretary Janet Yellen calling it "arbitrary and based on outdated data." Apparently the FED is not liking it, but the response above....priceless. Isn't that exactly what our FOMC does as well???
You nailed it SMOKIE.........exactly like the FED. Totally arbitrary and meaningless.......and......often disconnected from reality. So they trot out Yellen......now there is exactly who you want to showcase to give people and the markets some confidence. That woman is a MORON. OUR....government....has deteriorated to the worst that I have seen in my lifetime.......and....I am talking about the games and politicians on both sides. A NEW LOW. Come to think of it....based on the state of our governance....perhaps the downgrade was not harsh enough. The bad news is....it NEVER gets better.....the long term trend of government and our institutions is NOT promising in the slightest. BUT.....the good news is.......as the people over 50 die off.....there will be ZERO institutional memory of how things used to be.....so it will all seem just fine.
I see that the downgrade has driven the yield on the Ten Year Treasury up to......4.10%. That is the real impact of this story of the day. Bummer for the housing market and home buyers looking for a 30 year mortgage.
This isn't the first time AMD announced good earnings just to have some large scale event eclipse it, and it won't be the last. Just doing nothing as usual and letting the day traders do all their work.
BRAVO TireSmoke........so true. Is this an indicator of good earnings from APPL and AMZN tomorrow? A convenient news event so the markets can ignore the earnings and move on with the DRAMA and NEGATIVITY. It does.......as you pointed out....seem like this happens over and over......some good business or specific stock news is overwhelmed by some short term event and than ignored. If I was a conspiracy theorist.........? NAH.....probably a function of the constant 24/7 focus on negative news by all the media including the financial media.
Well, I have tempted the market gods again and placed an order for some more shares to add at close. I have been adding some new contributions and putting them to work once they have settled into my account so I would have likely done so either way this week. I don't mind being able to do so on a red day either though. Tomorrow is AAPL and AMZN on deck for earnings...both after the close.
You know the other day when the FED was to announce their rate hike and then have the follow up presser.....I looked to see who had earnings reports that day. I figured, those poor companies are not going to get any reward for their beats. I think Coke (KO) reported that day. They got a bit of coverage, but was quickly overshadowed by the clown show of the day.
Looks like a sell off market to me. Everything is down big time all across the board with no logical explanation…HUGE drops today, recession type drops, for no reason other than SELL OFF. Impeccable timing with August kicking off, how about that!
Nothing like a ride in the market......time machine. I had a nice fat loss today that took me back at least 2-3 weeks. Every stock down today. AND....a nice loss to the SP500 by 0.96% today. Fortunately.....it was not the markets fault.
The sad story of the market today. Stocks plunge as credit downgrade rattles Wall Street https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...street-stock-market-news-today-200232129.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks plunged Wednesday after rating agency Fitch downgraded the US government's credit rating, citing fiscal and political instability. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 1%, or over 300 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped more than 2%. The downgrade drew an angry response from the Biden administration, with the Treasury Department calling it "arbitrary" after the White House and Congress averted a debt default more than two months ago. Fitch spotlighted the US's growing levels of debt, as well as political instability — including the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection on the Capitol — as factors in their decision. With the downgrade top of mind, investors also geared up for another full day of earnings. CVS (CVS) and Kraft Heinz (KHC) were among the top names to report before the bell. PayPal (PYPL), Shopify (SHOP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Etsy (ETSY), and Robinhood (HOOD) are among those due after the bell." MY COMMENT ABSOLUTELY nothing of substance impacting stocks today.....except for the rating drop. Shades of 2022 for nervous investors. The sad tale of two markets. On one hand you have all the massive silent majority of investors that are long term doing nothing. On the other hand you have the professionals and traders running around with their hair on fire screaming.....sell, sell, sell. Of course they are screaming that.....as they are trading like crazy taking advantage of the turmoil. No doubt a BANNER DAY for the traders. Today belonged to the AI QUANT traders that drove the markets into the toilet with their trading programs. A classic PROGRAM TRADING drop today in the markets.
I would say that the earnings tomorrow are now a non-event....if they are good. If they are not good or if the guidance is poorly worded.....it will probably trigger more selling. After today the markets are going to be jumpy the rest of the week. Our best hope for a turn-around is if people see today for what it was......and....take advantage of the 2-5% discounts that are suddenly available in some of the top companies......as we continue with the young bull market.
For once I agree with Dimon. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls Fitch Ratings U.S. downgrade ‘ridiculous’ but says it ‘doesn’t really matter’ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/02/jpm...ridiculous-but-says-doesnt-really-matter.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The Fitch Ratings downgrade of the United States’ long-term credit rating ultimately doesn’t matter, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday. “It doesn’t really matter that much,” because it’s the market, not rating agencies, that determines borrowing costs, Dimon told CNBC’s Leslie Picker. Still, it is “ridiculous” that other countries are rated higher than the U.S. when they depend on the stability created by the U.S. and its military, Dimon added. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls Fitch downgrade of U.S. credit ‘ridiculous’ The Fitch Ratings downgrade of the United States’ long-term credit rating ultimately doesn’t matter, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday. “It doesn’t really matter that much” because it’s the market, not rating agencies, that determines borrowing costs, Dimon told CNBC’s Leslie Picker. Still, it’s “ridiculous” that other countries have higher credit ratings than the U.S. when they depend on the stability created by the U.S. and its military, Dimon added. “To have them be triple-A and not America is kind of ridiculous,” Dimon said. “It’s still the most prosperous nation on the planet, it’s the most secure nation on the planet.” Fitch downgraded the country’s rating to AA+ from AAA on Tuesday, pointing to “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years,” an erosion of governance and a growing general debt burden. The agency put the U.S. rating on watch in May after members of Congress butted heads over raising the debt ceiling and brought the country to near-default. “We should get rid of the debt ceiling,” Dimon said. “It’s used by both parties” in ways that sow uncertainty for markets, he said. Fed, A.I. and Ukraine In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon touched on topics including artificial intelligence, the U.S. economy, bank regulation and geopolitics. He called artificial intelligence technology such as ChatGPT “a game changer” that will likely help future generations live longer, better lives. “It needs to be done right,” Dimon added. “I do worry about it because bad guys are going to use it too.” The U.S. economy, he said, is being supported by consumer and business strength, low unemployment and healthy balance sheets. “It’s pretty good, even if we go into recession,” Dimon said. “The storm cloud part is still there,” he added, referring to a warning he gave last year on the economy. What worries Dimon most are the geopolitical risks created by the Ukraine war and the Federal Reserve’s effort to rein in its balance sheet known as quantitative tightening, he said. Dimon lambasted regulators’ efforts to tighten standards on U.S. banks, saying the proposals unveiled last week were “hugely disappointing.” At one point, he held up a chart showing the web of regulators that banks deal with. Banks will be forced to hold more capital as a cushion against a variety of risks, which will affect consumers, because the industry will cede more products to nonbank players, Dimon warned. That’s what happened in the U.S. mortgage market, which is dominated by firms including Rocket Mortgage. Part of the changes involve banks ditching internal risk models for more standardized versions from the Federal Reserve. “If I was the Fed, I’d be careful about saying their models are perfect,” Dimon said. “Remember, their models didn’t show inflation and didn’t show 5% interest rates.”" MY COMMENT He is of course correct. We provide the security to the world. We are STILL the greatest economic power in the world. We are STILL the safe haven for the world's money. I assume they will not downgrade the credit ratings of the rest of the world. BUT NO.....they will not. It is simply RIDICULOUS and ASININE. I dont trust how and why this was done in the slightest.
Well, at least the shares I bought today were a bit of a discount. That's about the best I can make of it. Only two sectors ended green today, health and consumer staples...and not by much.
