The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This market update is a nice little summary of where we are right now as we begin the push to year end.

    S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumble for four straight days, notch worst weeks since March

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slumped Friday for a fourth straight session, and notched their worst weeks since March, as traders seemed to book profits following the latest corporate earnings releases and U.S. jobs data.

    The S&P 500 shed 0.53% to finish at 4,478.03, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.36% to settle at 13,909.24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 150.27 points, or 0.43%, to end at 35,065.62.

    All the major indexes reversed earlier gains during afternoon trading, and finished the week with losses. The Nasdaq
    and S&P dropped about 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively, to notch their worst weeks since March. The Dow
    edged down 1.1%.


    People this week seem more respectful of risk than they were before,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, adding that “lots of bears have been capitulating, which is often a sign that we’re closer to the end of a rally than the beginning.”

    After being lower on the day, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to trade above 16 — pointing to investors adding volatility protection.

    Friday marked the final day of what’s been the busiest week of second-quarter earnings season. Amazon jumped 8.3% to its highest level in nearly a year after trouncing expectations on profit and offering positive guidance. Apple
    lost 4.8% after reporting lower revenue than the year-ago quarter. Both tech giants reported results late Thursday.

    In a sign of the boom in travel and services demand, Booking Holdings gained 7.9% on stronger-than-expected results. Amgen
    popped 5.5% on solid earnings and a boosted guidance.

    Earnings reports this season for the quarter ended in June have continued to surprise some Wall Street analysts as the expected slowdown in profits proves less than feared. About 84% of S&P 500 companies have given results, with 80% surpassing Wall Street expectations, according to FactSet.

    The 10-year Treasury yield also pulled back from a multimonth high to 4.04%. Its rise in recent sessions had pressured risk assets.

    A cooler jobs report

    Investors also received more clues into the state of the labor market with Friday’s payrolls report. The data showed 187,000 jobs added in July, less than the 200,000 expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate also ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6%.

    Despite the cooler headline numbers, average hourly wages pointed toward more inflation and came in ahead of expectations, rising 0.4% for the month, and 4.4% on an annualized basis. That came in slightly ahead of the 0.3% and 4.2% expected, respectively.

    Many on Wall Street had been eagerly awaiting the jobs report and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle. About 88% of traders expect the central bank to hold rates steady at its next meeting in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

    But next week’s consumer price report for July could make an even greater impact on rate expectations, said Wells Fargo’s Christopher Harvey.

    “A hotter-than-expected print is one of the few things that could really start to change the market’s perception of the Fed, and maybe the Fed’s perception as well,” he said. “But today’s job number, I don’t think does much of anything. I think it solidifies people’s view that the Fed is done at this point.”'

    MY COMMENT

    NOTHING above is negative for the markets. Actually.....these is really nothing on tap for the next six months that is market negative.

    Investors have gotten obsessive over the FED after the past year of rate hikes and constant media focus and interviews. BUT....that will fade now that they are DONE. Over the coming months there will be less and less said about the FED, inflation, recession, and rate hikes. At some point.....probably during next year......the first rate DECREASE will happen.

    EARNINGS are BOOMING and by all indications will continue to do so for the next 2-6 earnings reporting seasons. We are now heading toward the end of earnings......and they have come in well above expectations.

    The greatest DRAG on the economy.....government regulation and policy.

    Wall Street is on vacation and there is the usual potential for erratic day to day results due to a very shallow and volatile summer market. BUT......by all probabilities.....the bull market will continue for the rest of the year.

    MOST investors......myself included....have now made back all the losses from last year. A LONG TERM focus has once again been proven to be the correct strategy for the basic retail investor.

    The shock of the ratings drop is over and already forgotten as nearly every financial leader roundly derided FITCH and the downgrade as irrelevant and ridiculous.

    NOW.....it is all about what specific companies or funds you own.......as it should be.

    AND......regardless of anything and everything......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  2. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    You read my mind! That is precisly what I´m going to do next weeks. Going to add some to my existing positions. Seems to me both papers may correct a bit next couple of weeks, so I'm going to use that. If not, I will add anyway...no worries.
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You are a strong investor rg7803.

    With how you invest for the long term I am sure you will do very well over your lifetime. There will come a time when you will be AMAZED at how well you have done and what you have......compared......to all the people around you in your daily life. It is all about long term FOCUS........and owning the cream of the business world.....which you seem to understand and are making happen.
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE are the returns.......short and long term......for AAPL and MSFT. They are the current whipping boys of the big seven. EACH.....has an AMAZING record of gain for stock owners. Of course the future is not controlled by the past and will depend on the business results put up by each company as well as how the current bull market plays out. As to current sentiment.......Irrelevant to more than a few months at best......for better or worse.

    APPLE

    1 month (-5.44%)
    3 month +14.54%
    6 month +17.79%
    YTD +40.41%
    1 year +9.55%
    3 year +67.06%
    5 year +250.78%

    MICROSOFT

    1 month (-3.01%
    3 month +7.68%
    6 month +26.87%
    YTD +86.77%
    1 year +16.04%
    3 year +51.37%
    5 year +200.72%

    Even all impact of last year is erased from the above. I would ask this.....do you know how rare and abnormal a return of 200% or MORE over five years is? The performance for investors in the stocks above is ABSOLUTELY EXCEPTIONAL.

    Compare this to my investment GOAL of achieving a total return of 10% or more over the long term......or my aspirational goal....of beating the SP500 each year.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE....is a little article that might be of use to those considering buying APPLE stock....or....evaluating reasons for NOT buying or adding more APPLE stock.

    Investors had largely ignored Apple’s valuation problem. Then in a single day they erased $130 billion in market cap.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-had-largely-ignored-apple-151647758.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "On August 3rd, Apple released the most highly-anticipated report for the earnings season, viewed as a bellwether for the fortunes of recently raging FAANG contingent. Apple slightly exceeded Wall Street's expectations on revenues, and beat handily on EPS. But despite an apparent upward surprise, investors fled, bidding down its shares by over 4.8% by market close on August 4 to $182. That move that erased $130 billion in market cap, more than the total valuation of all but around 50 U.S. companies.

    Funds and folks seem to be recognizing that America's most valuable enterprise, and a stock that before the new slump rallied 50% in 2023, is seriously, dangerously overpriced. The new figures spotlight that the stalwart valued for years of rapid growth to come is—at best—flattening. The other scenario: that it's trending back toward the (still impressive) profits it posted before the pandemic.

    Apple's growth conundrum

    The headlines stressed that Apple's revenues fell 1.4% to $81.8 billion from the mark in June of 2022. The culprit was equipment sales. Revenues from the iPhone registered 2% below a year ago. Better than expected growth in services, comprising iCloud, Music and Apple TV+ weren't enough to offset the softness in products. CEO Tim Cook implied that the iPhone sales that now account for half of all Apple revenues, will keep declining. While citing strength in India and other emerging markets, he cautioned that "It's a challenging smartphone market in the U.S. currently."


    Put simply, the only way for Apple to recast itself as a growth engine is to achieve growth in services so powerful that the sector's forward march surmounts the retreat in its core franchises. But services still amount to just one-quarter of Apple's overall revenues. The pace at which that sector must grow to justify a still nearly $3 trillion market cap, and keep it advancing, seems mathematically doubtful.

    Is it worth buying Apple stock today?

    From fiscal 2018 to 2020, Apple consistently posted net, GAAP average earnings of $14 or $15 billion a quarter. But surging demand for work-from-home gear during the pandemic lifted profits to $19.4 billion in Q3 of 2022, followed by average earnings of $25 billion a quarter through March of 2023. In the December quarter, the figure rose to almost $30 billion, but even though profits fell from the pinnacle in the second quarter, and seemed certain to keep tumbling, Apple's PE kept jumping to new highs.

    At the start of 2023, its multiple stood at around 20 and trailing earnings were a formidable $100 billion, almost twice its run rate in the 2018-20 period. But by late July, its market cap had soared from roughly $2 trillion at the start of the year, to $3 trillion. And its PE rocketed to 32. But earnings had already started declining, thus the great disconnect began.

    The August 3 report confirmed the downward trend. Net earnings were $19.9 billion, down 18% from the previous quarter. The remaining question is whether Apple's earnings can possibly stabilize a that nearly $20 billion quarterly level, or around $80 billion a year, or if they're destined to fall more. Keep in mind that $80 billion is a spectacular figure that's already 45% above the pre-pandemic norm.

    Yes, Apple stock is still really expensive

    But Apple is selling at a P/E of 36. That's much, much too expensive for a non-grower sporting a 0.5% dividend yield. Even dedicating all cash flow to buybacks, Apple's normal playbook, would achieve EPS gains of 3% a year, plus inflation. That's not enough. For Apple to become a good buy, even if it keeps making $80 million a year, its price must go much lower.

    But what if Apple really can't continue making a number that seemed unimaginable before COVID struck? If services can't outrun the decline in products fast enough, earnings will keep falling. Then, the outlook for its shares gets even dimmer. It looks like investors mistook a never-before-seen windfall as a new fast track. It's likely that Apple will keep a lot of that pandemic uplift, and remain significantly more profitable than before the outbreak. But investors wanted too much, a liftoff on top of a liftoff. Indeed, as the new results showed, gravity is finally taking hold."

    MY COMMENT

    So above I see a positive view and a negative view.

    Here is what I see as the positive view in the article:

    "that it's trending back toward the (still impressive) profits it posted before the pandemic."

    "Apple's earnings can possibly stabilize at that nearly $20 billion quarterly level, or around $80 billion a year........that $80 billion is a spectacular figure that's already 45% above the pre-pandemic norm."

    "It's likely that Apple will keep a lot of that pandemic uplift, and remain significantly more profitable than before the outbreak..."

    "While citing strength in India and other emerging markets, he cautioned that "It's a challenging smartphone market in the U.S. currently."

    Of course the negative view is well laid out in the article and is mostly tied to the stocks PE and declining revenue and earnings......and as a result the stock is too expensive.

    As an existing share holder......I prefer the positive view.....if I am going to speculate. BUT....that is my default mode.....the glass half full approach. I rely on the long term to make this sort of data driven analysis irrelevant and to smooth out any bumps.

    Off the top of my head......I do believe that world wide the market for APPLE products still has a strong future ahead with countries like India. I also believe that product cycles play into much of the data.

    The pandemic distortions and disruptions are now over with. The next four quarters will tell us a lot more about how this company and many others are really doing in a normal business world.

    As a long time holder of this company I certainly have no plans to sell any shares.

     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YOU have to participate to win.

    9 Charts Showing Why You Should Invest Today
    Why start investing now? Because the stock market rewards the faithful.

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/.../9-charts-showing-why-you-should-invest-today

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The stock market can be a powerful ally but also a destructive foe. When it feels as fickle with its affections, many people wonder: Why is investing important?

    The answer, quite simply, is that without investment growth to sustain your nest egg, retirement may become a dream rather than a reality.


    The following charts show why investing today is the key to retiring on your own terms. Each assumes a 7% annual rate of return based on the long-term average stock market return of 9% less average inflation of 2%.

    SBUX). If you were to skip the latte and instead invest that $5 a day in the stock market, your coffee fund could grow to almost $11,000 in five years. Keep investing $5 a day for 50 years, and you could have more than $800,000 – just by making coffee at home.




    [​IMG]
    (Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    An investor who put $15 a day into the stock market could grow their portfolio to more than $1.2 million in 40 years. If they kept investing $15 a day for 50 years, they could amass almost $2.5 million. It makes you wonder whether those food truck tacos are worth it.

    [​IMG]
    (Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    Why Investing Early Is the Key to Financial Success

    The stock market is kindest to those who stay faithful to it longest. To see this in action, consider investors Jack, Jill and Joey.

    Jack starts investing $200 per month when he's 25. By age 65, his portfolio is worth more than $520,000.

    Jill doesn't start investing until age 35. She also contributes $200 per month, but by 65, her portfolio is only worth about $245,000. By waiting 10 years to start, she ends up with less than half of what Jack accumulates.


    Joey, the late bloomer, starts investing $200 per month when he's 45, and after 20 years he has only $100,000.

    [​IMG]
    Jack invests $200 per month starting at age 25, contributing $96,000 total. Jill invests $200 per month starting at age 35, contributing $72,000 total. Joey invests $200 per month starting at age 45, contributing $48,000 total.(Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    When You Start Investing Matters More Than How Much You Invest

    Time invested is so important that Jack can even stop adding to his investments and still have more than Jill at age 65.

    If Jack were to contribute $200 per month from age 25 to 35 – contributing only $24,000 over 10 years – his investments would be worth almost $300,000 at age 65.

    Jill continually invests $200 per month between ages 35 and 65 but still ends up with only $245,000 at 65. Even though she contributes three times as much as Jack over her lifetime ($72,000), because she missed those first 10 years of investing, Jack amasses more.


    [​IMG]
    Jack invests $200 per month between the ages of 25 and 35. He contributes $24,000 total. Jill invests $200 per month between the ages of 35 and 65. She contributes $72,000 total. (Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    When Your Investments Earn More Money Than You Contribute

    Jack is able to stop contributing at 35 but still accumulate more than Jill thanks to the power of compounding.

    At first, Jack's $200 monthly contributions don't earn much interest: $14 in the first year and $30 in the second year. But by his 10th year of investing, his money is earning more than he puts in. In year 11, Jack contributes only $200 but earns $231.

    And it's only up from there: Over time, his earnings will exponentially exceed his contributions.

    [​IMG]
    After 10 years of investing $200 per month at a 7 percent return, your investments earn more in interest than you contribute each year.(Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    The Secret to Financial Freedom Is Investing Over Time

    Jack's earnings will grow so large, they'll exceed all of his contributions combined. After 20 years of investing, Jack contributed $48,000 total. That same year, his $48,000 earned over $56,000. By year 25, his earnings ($103,000) are over 70% larger than his total contributions ($60,000).

    This is why time is so important in investing: Given enough time, your earnings can compound to take on a life of their own. Even better is they can become self-sustainable. When your money is earning enough money that you no longer need to work, you've achieved financial independence.

    [​IMG]

    I May Be Small, But I Earn Mightily

    When you start investing, it can feel like your efforts are all for naught. After five years of investing $200 per month at a 7% return, you'd have put in $12,000 and only earned $2,400. But over time, those earnings compound until the amount you contribute looks paltry in comparison to your returns.

    If you keep investing that $200 every month until age 70, for instance, you'll have contributed $120,000 but could have amassed almost $976,000 in earnings for a total portfolio of $1.1 million.

    [​IMG]
    (Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    Invest More, Grow More

    While $200 per month is a fine starting point, financial experts advocate saving at least 15% of your salary for retirement.

    If you invest $200 per month starting at age 20, you could have about $760,000 by age 65. But if you invest $500 per month for 45 years, your portfolio could be nearly $2 million. Maximize your 401(k) contribution each year – which is $22,500 in 2023 – by investing $1,875 per month, and you could potentially retire with at least $7.1 million.

    [​IMG]
    (Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)

    The Benefit of Increasing Your Contributions

    You don't have to start investing $1,875 a month right away. It's OK to start small, as long as you start. You can always increase your contributions later.

    Say you start with $200 a month. If you maintained those contributions for 40 years, you could accumulate about $500,000. But if you were able to increase your contributions by 5% each year, your portfolio could grow to more than $1 million in that same timeframe.

    Just imagine how much you could accumulate starting with $200 per month and increasing your contributions by 10% each year? (Hint: It's more than $2.6 million in 40 years.)


    [​IMG]
    (Coryanne Hicks and Nate Hellman)"

    MY COMMENT

    The above is the simple basis of all investing for the average person. Pick a vehicle that will return about 10% per year average over the long term......invest religiously for life........stay invested through all the happens over the short term.......and......BINGO.

    .
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I say over and over lately that we are seeing a NORMAL stock market and a NORMAL ECONOMY NOW.

    The Economy is Normalizing, and That’s a Good Thing

    https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-economy-is-normalizing-and-thats-a-good-thing/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The economy created 187,000 jobs in July, slightly softer than the 200,000 that economists expected. The last couple of months were revised lower, and so it’s always helpful to take a 3-month average, which is now running at 218,000. That’s stronger than the pre-pandemic average of 183,000.

    In short, job growth remains strong. You will hear some people heralding this as the onset of a recession, but more likely this is just normalization of the economy rather than weakness. The report aligns with what we wrote in our Mid-Year 2023 Outlook, not to mention the title: “Edging Closer to Normal”.

    [​IMG]

    The private sector created 172,000 jobs in July, up from 128,000 in June. On a sector level, job growth this year has been driven by non-cyclical areas like health care, education, and government. These sectors had lagged in the early recovery, accounting for just 13% of jobs created in 2021, and 25% in 2022. Over the first 7 months of this year, they’ve accounted for more than 50% of jobs created. July didn’t buck that trend, with health care seeing 100,000 jobs created. Government jobs were on the softer side, rising 15,000 in July versus an average of 53,000 between April and June.

    The cyclical areas of the economy, especially construction, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality, remain on the softer side, with job growth adding up to 34,000 across these three sectors. So far this year, these sectors have accounted for about 20% of job creation (not exactly “weak”), versus 36% in 2022 and 43% in 2021.

    Again, the theme is normalization.


    The Best Labor Market Since the Late 1990s

    The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, not far from 50+ year lows of 3.4%. What is amazing is that the unemployment rate is slightly below where it was in June 2023, when the Fed really started to get aggressive with rate hikes.

    The unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.

    The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio remained at 80.9%. That is higher than at any point since May 2001. It was actually falling at that time, and didn’t recover until now. This is the best indication that the labor market remains very healthy, and probably in the best shape since the late 1990s.

    [​IMG]

    Bottom Line: All Signs Point to a Strong Economy

    The US economy runs on consumption, and for that you need income. The good news is that income growth appears to remain strong and looks to be running ahead of inflation. In fact, wage growth rose 0.4% in July. Monthly numbers can be volatile, but the 3-month annualized pace is 4.9%.

    You combine strong wage growth with strong employment, and that translates to strong income gains across the entire economy. Over the last 3 months, overall income growth for all workers is running at a 5.3% annual pace. Meanwhile, headline inflation is running close to 2.0%. The difference between the two tells you how fast incomes are growing after adjusting for inflation, and that’s running above a 3% annual pace over the past 3 months.

    [​IMG]

    In my opinion, that’s your simplest measure of underlying economic growth and should tell you things are ok. Normalization is not the same as weakness."

    MY COMMENT

    It has taken a lot longer than anyone would have imagined.......the NORMALIZATION of the economy following the pandemic distortions and disruptions. You rarely hear anyone talk about the economic shut-down anymore.....but....it was one of the most disruptive and IDIOTIC events in our economic history.

    It is nice to be back to relatively......NORMAL.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Now.....NORMAL in the economy....is no guarantee to the stock markets. But at least it gets a big abnormal drag out of the way as an extra factor.

    NORMALIZATION allows the markets to concentrate on what counts.....FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS RESULTS.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The week that starts in about 39 minutes.

    Stock futures rise as Wall Street comes off a losing week

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stock futures rose Monday morning as investors readied for a week with more corporate earnings and key inflation readings.

    Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 93 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures
    advanced around 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

    The moves follow a losing week on Wall Street. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 slid about 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively, marking their worst weeks since March. The Dow
    finished the week about 1.1% lower.

    Monday kicks off the latest leg of what has broadly been considered a better-than-expected corporate earnings season. Of the 84% of companies in the S&P 500 that have posted their quarterly results, about four-fifths have exceeded Wall Street forecasts, according to FactSet.

    Later in the week, investors will shift focus to the release of July consumer and producer price index data. Both are closely watched given their connection to the path of inflation and the health of the economy.

    The indexes have been watched with particular interest amid the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign as investors try to predict how the central bank will move policy going forward. The readings follow last week’s employment data, which showed there was less job growth than economists expected in July.

    “For the Fed, this report has to be a relief, but likely doesn’t tilt the scales one way or the other,” said PIMCO managing director Tiffany Wilding following the jobs report on Friday. This week’s data “may be more convincing, and push the Fed to be patient and watch how the economy evolves for another meeting.”

    Berkshire shares rise after strong earnings, near-record cash pile

    Berkshire Hathaway shares climbed on Monday following a strong quarterly report that showed a rebound in insurance operations as well as a massive cash hoard that swelled to nearly $150 billion.

    Class B shares of Warren Buffett’s conglomerate rose 1.6% in premarket trading, on track to trade near an all-time closing high. The Omaha-based giant reported on Saturday that its operating earnings jumped 6.6% year over year, totaling $10.04 billion last quarter.

    Berkshire Hathaway’s resilient earnings illustrated the value of its diversified business mix as it added to its cash hoard,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust and a Berkshire shareholder."

    MY COMMENT

    A few earnings this week.....some economic data.....and not much else. The markets will just have to do what they want to do.

    I like this statement:

    Berkshire Hathaway’s resilient earnings illustrated the value of its diversified business mix....."

    NOTICE that you dont see Berkshire selling off business segments to....CREATE SHAREHOLDER VALUE. One of the most IDIOTIC corporate strategies I have seen in a long time....yet....it continues as a business FAD. Of course this really means nothing more than money for the CEO and other executives.

    I am a fan of diverse businesses......and....conglomerates.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    #16570 WXYZ, Aug 7, 2023
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2023
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We start the week with good potential. Not much going on this week. No FED BS. Little shocking news going on. EARNINGS are BIG.

    I see a few articles about how dismal the start to August was last week. AMAZINGLY......most do NOT mention the rating drama....which was the direct and primary cause of last week.

    As I sit here today typing......I have to say the PROBABILITY........is for a good week in the markets.

    The ONLY little market drag that I see is the ten year treasury still over 4% at.....4.068%. Up slightly.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I could not resist looking after the NASDAQ turned negative. YEA......I have a gain with eight of ten stocks up. My couple that are down....AAPL and AMZN.
     
  13. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Definitely something I’m debating at the moment… stock is super stretched and I’m pretty sure a lot of the gains came in the heels of AI hype, plus the stock has an extreme volatile past, but overall it’s a company I trust with a stellar record of clients and results, so the market will do what the market always does.
    I’m currently up 49% on that position.
    My ENPHASE stock however is not looking too good at the moment, but looking to add more if gets to 120 since it’s a long term holding
     
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  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    INTERESTINGLY....there is some good info in this little article from a non-financial source. How quickly the markets forget.....or....perhaps it is intentional.

    Apple's $3 Trillion Market Value Short-Lived

    https://www.newsmax.com/finance/str...on-third-quarter-sales/2023/08/07/id/1129854/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Apple’s claim to be the only company in the world valued at $3 trillion lasted just over a month, with its market cap ending at $2.86 trillion Friday a day after reporting its third consecutive quarter of declining sales due to weak iPhone sales, the New York Post reports.

    Shares of the Cupertino, Calif.-based technology titan ended down 4.8% Friday but were trading up 0.29% in premarket trading Monday. Apple (AAPL) is up nearly 50% year-to-date.

    For its third quarter ended July 1, Apple had revenue of $81.8 billion, a 1.4% decline from the previous quarter and a 3% drop year-over-year.

    Apple is on track to report similarly lackluster results for the fourth quarter, CFO Luca Maestri said on the earnings call Thursday. If Apple’s profits decline again, it would be the biggest decline Apple has seen in two decades.

    However, Apple is still the highest-valued company in the world by a margin of more than $1 trillion, with Microsoft in the No. 2 position with a market cap of $2.4 trillion and the Saudi Arabian petroleum company at No. 3 with a $2.1 trillion market cap.

    Apple CEO Tim Cook on the earnings call blamed “foreign exchange headwinds” and the stronger U.S. dollar for disappointing iPhone sales, the majority of which are derived from overseas.

    In China, however, Apple’s iPhone sales grew 8% year-over-year as the nation lifted its zero-COVID strategy in late January.

    iPhone sales globally were down 2.94% in the third quarter to $39.7 billion, just below analysts’ $39.8 billion target.

    Apple executives speaking on the earnings call said the U.S. smartphone market is slowing down. Cook noted that weaker than expected iPhone sales in the third quarter were offset by Apple TV+ and other subscription services.

    As well as strong iPhone sales in China in the quarter, Apple wearables such as the Apple Watch and AirPods also did well in China.

    Maestri added that Apple is “closely managing out spend,” saying that its $18.7 billion in operating expenses “were at the low end of the guidance range we provided at the beginning of the year.”

    Demand for the Apple iPhone 14 has ebbed as it is about to launch the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max with faster processors and larger screen displays with thinner boarders, potentially in early September when the tech giant has traditionally rolled out new offerings.

    The Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra could also be released next month.

    Meanwhile, however, the $3,500 Vision Pro mixed-reality headset announced in June reportedly may not be launched early next year due to Apple manufacturing partners having trouble with its intricate design."

    MY COMMENT

    I BOLDED what I consider good or positive above. Most of this was NOT included in the recent articles bashing the company over earnings....which were a BEAT.

    You have got to love the media. It is always a crap shoot...what and why they report about something.
     
  15. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    You know, zukodany, brought up a point I was thinking about earlier. Some of these companies have had a huge run YTD. I could see where some might trim some of that back. I necessarily would not blame them.

    I never became a busy body with rebalancing, but I did take note as holdings became a more dominant part of the portfolio than I was comfortable with. I would on some occasions trim those back and reallocate the funds to the core index holding. I could still keep them as a long term hold, but also kept things in check. Sometimes those can creep up on you and before you know it, you are significantly weighted.

    Good things to think about and evaluate as an investor.
     
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  16. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Yes Smokie, I actually just did sell PLTR, like, ALL OF IT.
    I locked in 50% gains on it so NOT looking forward to tax season next year.
    Earning calls definitely seem to be more of a gamble than what REALITY is at times, depending on stock/market conditions. So if August seemed a little more rosey I may have stayed with the stock, but as it is I am not looking to jeopardize all of these gains to volatility based on NOTHING.
    If it does pick up, which it may very well do, I will get in on it at the dip next time around, which likely will happen as well lol
    So there you have it, sad to see you go PLTR, but I will own you again in the future, that’s a promise!
     
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  17. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    And sure wouldn’t you know it… as I’m typing the above… This article pops on my feed lol

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-ai-stock-bubble-may-be-popping-184758202.html

    May just be fake news, doom & gloom talk, but if PLTR does end up getting hammered based on NOTHING, I may move on to rebalance some other positions….
    Not something I’m looking forward to doing, but let’s see how things play out
     
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  18. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Nothing wrong with taking the profit and knowing you have captured those gains. As you mentioned, you can evaluate things going forward. It gives you additional time to observe, research, and see if it once again aligns with what you want to do.
     
    zukodany likes this.
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YOU turned that PLTR into a nice medium term trade Zukodany. Time to look for the next investment for that money.
     
    #16579 WXYZ, Aug 7, 2023
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2023
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I notice that AAPL is my ONLY down stock at this momment.

    The most reccent high they hit before this little drop was on August 1, 2023......just a week ago. At that time they were at $195. now just a week later they are at $178......a drop of $17. This is a drop of 8.7% in only FIVE market days.

    This is now boarding on the RIDICULOUS. If it continues there will be a good buying opportunity in the shares. One thing makes this attractive......ALL....the expectations of the market are negative for the next year of earnings.....and.....it is now all baked in.
     

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