I guess when all else fails in the "news" cycle, we drag out the old China fear card. Whatever. China's economy is struggling??? Really?? After going off the rails during the pandemic to the extreme....locking people in their homes, factories, and having no economic activity for a very, very lengthy time....they are having issues. Who would've ever thought that? In addition, I noticed another little story from a Fitch analyst getting some air time today. It almost came across as a "veiled" type of warning/threat. It was basically a lot of fluff about lowering the larger banks and that it was possible, yet unknown...but maybe considering it....but might not need to be done.....yet still open to the possibility.....mulling it over.....may not do it anyway.....depends on the FED. Really a weasel type of deal. Seems to me there are some power plays and "stuff" going on.....people like to be "important."
Way to go TB16. Some good advice to follow on simply controlling what you can control. I agree. Many times, and more often than not, doing nothing is a good thing in investing.
We are on the same page....SMOKIE....as usual. I was driving to my quarterly blood draw and just got back. During the drive I was listening to Varney on Sat radio and thinking about China and Fitch. Here is my FANTASY, FICTIONAL, CONSPIRACY THEORY on that topic: In this fictional scenario the FED and Yellen are leaking information to and coordinating with Fitch and Moody's. They are also providing thinly veiled "suggestions" to both agencies regarding what they should be doing or considering. Their goal is to create interest rate hikes without having to do it themselves. They are also trying to drive down the markets and secondarily the economy. They are using these agencies.......that are borderline semi-govermental anyway with all their ties to government and banking.....to do their DIRTY WORK by creating rate hikes on Treasuries. As I said this is "fiction" and "fantasy" not truth. Just a little conspiracy theory that I was creating to amuse myself while driving. I am sure this story-line coming out after a very strong market day is just a coincidence.
Speaking of the above.....I have testified in the state legislature a few times in my former life. It is amazing how scripted it all is if you know the behind the scenes info. When I did it....I was meeting with the industry lobbyist ahead of time. They told me how the entire script would go.....this person would testify.....they would say this and that....they would be asked this and that by various members. Than you will testify and will be asked this and that. Than the vote will happen and these members will vote this way and those members will vote that way. Etc, etc, etc. It all went EXACTLY as I was told ahead of time. I did notice that the poor members (suckers) of the public that came to sign up to speak........did not get a chance to say anything because they..... "ran out of time". Being involved in some of that stuff made me very CYNICAL about government and the political process.
I am HAPPY to see china doing poorly. I hope this is just the start to a long, long, economic decline. I will never invest in Chinese companies and it really pisses me off to see most of the companies that I own doing the amount of manufacturing there that they do. It is all going to come back to be a massive bite in the butt for those companies and this country.
On another topic......mortgage rates.....I heard someone on the business radio reporting on how people are not able to buy a home because mortgage rates are........"SO HIGH". I hate to tell anyone....especially young people.....mortgage rates are NOT high. They are in the historic NORMAL range. Over the past 50 years it is extremely rare to see mortgage rates outside of and below the 5-7% range. If it was me I wold NOT be waiting for rates to drop back down before buying a house. You are going to have a very long wait.........forever probably. It is amazing how much very subtle misinformation is out there in the news. In fact the Ten Year Treasury in the high 3% to low 4% range is NOT high. That is about average and on the actual low end of normal.
For those that live under a rock....here is what is driving the ridiculous markets today. Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/fitch-warns-it-may-be-forced-to-downgrade-dozens-of-banks.html "Key Points Fitch Ratings cut its assessment of the banking industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks. But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score from AA- to A+ would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC. “If we were to move it to A+, then that would re-calibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said." MY COMMENT Nothing to see here........they should just go away and shut up.....along with the FED. Nothing but HUBRIS even if they do eventually cut the banks.
WELL.....at least I have two stocks up right now.....NVDA and MSFT. Considering the ridiculous news driving the short term market today....I will take that as a MAJOR VICTORY for the day so far.
Great little post earlier by WXYZ showing the benefit of holding a good, solid company for the long term. Long term involves optimism, confidence, and a plan. Allowing that plan to work without a whole lot of interference. Long term investing does pay off, but it takes time and sometimes nerves of steel. You have to prepare yourself for the emotions as well. They will come. Plan for it. The good times and the bad. Know your limits. Here is an example of it. Lets say we held the MSFT above at the time mentioned. In January 2000 we had $963,438 from it. By the end of December 2000 we lost about -63%. Yes, -63%. The great news is the following year it went back up about +53%. Investing can test your will and your plan as evidenced by either example. Know yourself as an investor as much as you can as you develop your goals and plan. Pay attention to the structure of it and design it in a way you can stick with it. Find your comfort zone.
Agree. I seen an article the other day about Foxconn (AAPL) making about 70% of the Iphone. It irks me to see this every time it comes up. We discussed the NVDA deal earlier....and we can add countless other big companies to the list. I get the worlds second largest economy, the workforce, cheap labor and so on. At some point, we have to mitigate this risk somewhat. We have seen a little bit of it, due to the supply chain hell during the pandemic. That alone should have these companies seriously coming up with alternatives. What would occur if they went in and just jacked Foxconn up? Or any of these others...sure it would hurt them too, but they don't strike me as rational about that type of thing.
You know what is somewhat interesting. I have noticed how the AI stuff has just dominated everything for a good bit now. Prior to, the headlines seemed all about TSLA. You still hear about them, but it is definitely not the buzz topic anymore. Funny how things ebb and flow from one thing to the next. And for you TSLA holders....no, I am not throwing shade at it. It is just notable how quickly "new" and shiny things draw attention with investors/traders and the like. EV's were the rage and companies popped up daily it seemed. Now AI is a part of every little thing. I mean even (KO) mentioned it a few times.
As to the above.....I say this as a simply observation not a political statement......it is amazing how much of the problems that TSLA has been having in the media.....started and have continued after MUSK made his more conservative views known. I try to keep all my political and personal view out of my investing. There are a good number of companies that I own that I may not agree with their political and social stances.....but.....I am not going to PUNISH MYSELF by avoiding them. That is one big reason that I will not talk politics on here. All I care about is business results, DOMINANCE, and a strong business future for a company. I may not like some of their views......but.......my focus in on MAKING MONEY.....nothing more nothing less.
I am adding HD to my short list of stocks that are UP so far today. Looks like it has been up for most of the day......except for a brief moment when it wen negative in the morning and just after noon.
WELL.....my little neighborhood of less than 100 homes has had some activity. Two of the three homes for sale are now sold or pending. I dont see the third home that was for sale in the listings....so it may have gone off the market or also sold. EDIT: I see that the third home now says it is off the market. But the sign is still on it so perhaps it is now a "pocket listing". In my larger area there are 42 homes for sale. Prices in general are firm and hanging in there. All in all it has been an OK summer for property so far in this area. At the moment it seems like more of the higher priced homes are selling than the lesser priced homes. Higher priced being over a million and lesser priced homes being in the $650,000 to $850,000 range. Our area has been......"moving on up".....over the past ten years. We are now strongly among the three highest income areas in the entire city of Austin and Austin region. The PRIMARY criteria in all three of these areas is.....GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOLS.
Looks like the index has stayed solid today.....in the red. I see the media has also added commentary by the FED. Saying the same thing over and over and over. It is amazing how much air time they get.....even though there is nothing to possibly add of substance. It appears NVDA is just flipping the bird to all of it today (so far anyway). Just a mic drop on the negative "news" and views. I added some index shares today....just because it is a red day. My own little bird flip to the negative hype today.
A WASTED DAY today for the markets compliments of the news of the day which had NOTHING to do with the markets in general or most stocks. I was in the RED today of course. At least I had a couple of stocks UP for the day.....NVDA and HD. They helped to hold my loss down some. I also got in a beat on the SP500 by 0.52%.
Here is NVDA today. Nvidia stock climbs higher amid 'significant momentum' ahead of earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...ant-momentum-ahead-of-earnings-182954017.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) stock has gained more than 8% over the past two sessions amid a string of bullish Wall Street updates ahead of the chipmaker's earnings next week. "We expect a significant beat" for Nvidia's fiscal second quarter, wrote Baird's Tristan Gerra and his team in a note to investors on Tuesday. The analysts cited "very significant momentum in AI demand for Nvidia" and raised their price target on the stock to $570 from $475 while maintaining an Outperform rating. On Monday, shares of the Santa Clara, Calif.-based chipmaker rose 7% after a bullish note from Morgan Stanley analysts. "NVIDIA remains our Top Pick, with a backdrop of the massive shift in spending towards AI, and a fairly exceptional supply demand imbalance that should persist for the next several quarters," wrote Joseph Moore and his team. Meanwhile, UBS analysts raised their price target to $540 from $475, writing that Nvidia "is quite literally serving as 'kingmaker' as a huge wave of capital and new financing vehicles are chasing new AI software and specialized cloud infrastructure models." Nvidia stock has been on fire since the start of 2023. The chipmaker led the tech sector higher earlier in the year as it moved center stage amid an AI craze, thanks to its high-powered graphics cards and server products. Information technology stocks have pulled back a bit in recent weeks amid concerns of an overbought market and rising bond yields. It's worth noting August is historically a weak month for stocks. Since the start of August, Nvidia shares are down 6%. "We think the recent selloff is a good entry point," wrote Morgan Stanley's Moore. Nvidia shares are up more than 205% since the start of 2023. In May, the stock skyrocketed more than 26% in one session after the company posted a better than expected quarter with guidance that blew past Wall Street estimates. The company said it expects revenue of $11 billion for its fiscal second quarter, plus or minus 2% versus Wall Street estimates of $7.2 billion. Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, with 52 Buy recommendations, six Holds, and one Sell. The average price target on the stock is $507." MY COMMENT I continue to be worried short term about things getting too carried away. BUT.......the reality is that much of the positive reporting is probably fully justified for the medium to longer term. I have seen numerous glowing articles today about this company. What we need is for the stock to SPLIT.
Here is the market today as of the close. Stocks sink as China woes spark global sell-off https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ll-off-stock-market-news-today-200121136.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks were part of a global sell-off Tuesday as a retail-heavy week began by showing continued consumer resilience in the US, but China painted a grim picture for the world's second-largest economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1% as bank shares tumbled amid the prospect of stricter oversight. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 1.1%. The moves added pressure to a glum August for stocks after the indexes had a rebound day on Monday, with the Nasdaq rising over 1%. Home Depot (HD) kicked off retail earnings week by beating estimates but warning of "continued pressure" on consumers, as the company said customers are pulling back on home-renovation projects. Target (TGT) is up next on Wednesday, while Walmart (WMT) reports Thursday. Retail sales numbers out Tuesday morning, meanwhile, suggested continued health for the US consumer. Retail sales rose 0.7% in July from the previous month, more than Wall Street's estimates for 0.4% growth. China's continued economic woes took center stage globally, as the country reported a further decline in health for its economy. China's central bank unexpectedly cut a range of key interest rates in a bid to spur growth in its sputtering economy. Notably, it also suspended the publication of its youth jobless data after months of spirals." MY COMMENT The China and Fitch stuff,........which was not even mentioned above should be a one day....two at the most....event. It is interesting that this summary article does not even mention Fitch. they are already old news. I guess the news gods have decided to focus all the negativity on China. Is anyone really surprised that the worlds most brutal communist dictatorship.......which controls every business in the entire country with central planing and direct orders from the political leadership.....is having economic issues? I have yet to see ANY successful communist dictatorship over my lifetime. The only reason that China has done as well as they have is because of our current STUPIDITY in building them up.
GEE.......with this happening today.....it makes you wonder if Fitch and Moody's are acting in concert with the FED to talk rates up. NAH.....that could never happen. I guess I am just paranoid. Regional banks slide after Fed’s Kashkari advocates ‘significantly further’ capital regulation https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/reg...significantly-further-capital-regulation.html MY COMMENT Of course it is the same people at the FED that are continuously asleep at the switch when it comes to monitoring and regulating the banks.
