The Long Term Investor

The sort of NOTHING down day today.....that I just IGNORE.

Stocks edge lower amid China data gloom: Stock market news today

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-gloom-stock-market-news-today-104731326.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street stocks inched down at Tuesday's open as traders returning from a long weekend grappled with fresh data showing China's economy is still struggling to recover.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was broadly unchanged, both paring earlier deeper losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid 0.4%, as climbing 10-year Treasury yields weighed on growth stocks.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) slipped as markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday.

The three major gauges are coming off a winning week that saw the S&P 500 book its best weekly performance since June, as a stream of economic updates fed hopes that the Federal Reserve would hold off from hiking interest rates at its September meeting.

Data out Tuesday showed China’s services activity fell to its lowest level in eight months in August, reviving worries about recovery in the world's second-biggest economy — and what that means for demand globally.

Amid the downturn debate, analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their odds of a US recession given cooling inflation and a still-resilient labor market. Plus, they played down the idea that a long drag from the Fed's rate-hiking campaign will push the economy into a severe slowdown.

With a light earnings and economic calendar ahead, the focus will likely stay on the Fed this week, when investors looking at seasonal forces in play for stocks may well find fewer reasons to be cheerful. September has historically been a downbeat month for markets.

That said, some analysts believe September may not be as bad as expected, pointing to factors such as excitement around AI, cash on the sidelines, and Apple's rumored new iPhone release."

MY COMMENT

An IRRELEVANT day so far today. I do not and will not invest according to broad economic data.....especially.....when it comes out of China. That is why the markets so far today are simply being SILLY.

This sort of stuff is short term trader talk. As a long term investor this sort of market driver is nothing to me. I will simply ignore the open today....and...perhaps the entire day. I dont care what is happening to the FAKE and FRAUDULENT Chinese economy.

Perhaps if we could see a collapse in China American companies might wake up and get out of there.

 

NOW.....here is something the DOES matter.

The most important driver of stock prices is on the rise: Morning Brief

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...s-is-on-the-rise-morning-brief-100046774.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"During August, the stock market faced its first blip of 2023 when the index fell 1.7%.

And market history shows September has been the worst month of the year since World War II.

But amid this market instability, the most important factor for the stock market's long-term performance was actually getting better. And that is corporate earnings.

"At the end of the earnings season for the second quarter, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter?" asked FactSet's John Butters in a note published Friday.

"The answer is no."

Butters notes that during July and August, earnings estimates were raised for the third quarter, fourth quarter, and remainder of 2023, as well as 2024 full-year forecasts.

That's notable not only because earnings are the most important long-term driver of stock prices but also because analyst estimates are typically revised lower during the first two months of a given quarter.

FactSet's data shows that over the last decade, earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies typically drop by 2.7% during the first two months of a quarter. Over the last 15 years, the drop has been even larger at 3.4%.

The last time earnings were revised higher over the first two months of a quarter was the third quarter of 2021.


Earnings estimates for 2023 have been steadily revised higher during July and August. (Source: FactSet)
Second quarter earnings season is just about wrapped up and will mark the continuation of the ongoing earnings recession.

Earnings for S&P 500 companies dropped 4% from the prior year in Q2, data from FactSet shows, an improvement over the 7% decline seen in the first quarter of the year.

But the firm notes that while corporate profits have continued to decline from 2022 levels, analysts are growing more bullish on the outlook for the balance of this year and into 2024."

MY COMMENT

Looks like these people are starting to get tired of looking like FOOLS. For about the past TEN quarters they ahve been predicting earnings disasters and poor results. They have been.....uniformly.....wrong. So they are finally going to get on the right side of history this time around.

AND.....this is what really counts for investors......actual earnings.......NOT......some fraudulent and untrustable economic data out of China.

 

To continue.

China: Consumers 'shell shocked' over economic slowdown, strategist says

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/china-consumers-shell-shocked-over-134446286.html

MY COMMENT

I dont know why anyone would be surprised. Here you have an economy controlled......and micro-managed...... by a dictatorship. the economy in China is doomed to failure. The only economic system that actually works is free market capitalism. We have hundreds of years of proof in the form of history.

No communist dictatorship has ever been an economic success. People and business need to be FREE in order to thrive.

NO.....I will never invest in any Chinese company. I can not trust anything coming out of China and even if I could I will never take the risk of the Chinese government pulling the rug out from under my investment.

 

This is probably the REAL reason for the markets today.

U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors weigh economic outlook

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/05/us-treasury-yields-investors-weigh-economic-outlook.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday as markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday and investors considered what could be next for the economy following last week’s key data releases.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was last up more than 6 basis points at 4.236%. The 2-year Treasury
yield was last at 4.918% after climbing by 5 basis points.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Investors weighed the outlook for the economy and what this could mean for Federal Reserve monetary policy as recent data hinted at an economic slowdown.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for August showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, which marked the highest level since February 2022 and a sharp increase from July’s 3.5%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 4.3% compared to a year ago, both of which were lower than previously expected.

Many investors took this as a sign that inflationary pressures could be easing and the Fed’s interest rate hikes are taking effect. Cooling the labor market has been one of the central bank’s key policy goals alongside slowing the overall economy.

The data came as uncertainty about the Fed’s monetary policy path has grown following mixed economic data, which has continued to reflect some resilience, and comments from Fed officials. This includes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who recently suggested that interest rates may go higher still.

Markets are still expecting the central bank to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting later this month, but views about what could happen at other Fed meetings scheduled for later this year appear to be split.

No key data is slated for Tuesday."

MY COMMENT

Like much of the day to day drama that drives the markets.....this is trader stuff. The AI trading platforms that trade in micro-seconds all day long eat this stuff up.

You know.....in spite of all the massive computer power and AI intelligence that is supposedly being used in these trading models.....it simply appears to me that they are primarily trading the news and headlines. They are also trading.....their own.....herd behavior.

Some days it works for them....others it does not and the markets simply ignore it all. The only way to neutralize this GARBAGE is to simply invest for the long term where this day to day stuff is irrelevant.

 

HD is a great company as you know rg7803. They are the most dominant single hardware and lumber and building supply company in the USA. I am in their stores all the time and they are well managed, clean, and have everything you could possible want. Lots of employees in the store.....so strongly staffed. It is amazing to me how their commercial and contractor business has grown. of course there are hardley any old time style lumber yards around anymore.

 

I am having a pretty irrelevant day today.

I am bouncing between barely red and barely green.....so pretty much flat.....even though I only have three stocks UP at the moment......MSFT, COST, and AAPL.

I am happy to see MSFT and AAPL being able to go up lately. For some reason the market has been disrespecting both of them lately in-spite of good earnings. I guess they dont say....."AI"......out loud enough to satisfy the market media.

The markets are trying to fight higher today.....but they are having trouble getting out of the slow news driven.....short term..... quicksand. Perhaps we will see some clear direction in the afternoon.

 

If we end negative........ it will be fine with me......since I have in an order in two accounts to buy $1000 of the SP500 Index fund. This is simply housekeeping money. I had an extra $1000 in each account that needs to get into the markets.

This was money that we were holding out to give to a grandchild for part of their college funding this year. It is unneeded right now so it needs to get into the markets.

 

Have to go I have a corporate board meeting conference call in about five minutes. Sounds important....right?

Well no.....this is a family corporation set up by my grandfather. It holds land and mineral rights to about 1000 acres in New Mexico. Unfortunately it only brings in about a net income of less than $300 each year. BUT....hope springs eternal.

 

That is a good idea Smokie. I will bring it up next year.

 

I ended the day same as I was experiencing this morning......a small gain. I did manage to beat the SP500 today by 0.50%. So I will take that and my small gain as a victory for the day.

I did have five out of eight stocks up today.....MSFT, AAPL, COST, GOOGL, and NVDA.

 

All that family corporate land above.....in about ten parcels.....includes mineral rights. it all sits in the Permian Basin. It is all leased to about 7 different oil companies. I own a 20% share of the corporation.

In spite of the great location we never net more than about $300......and.....a good number of years.....lose money. All of the land has drilled wells......but they are mainly gas and a small amount of oil.

BUMMER

 

Just a wasted day in the markets today.

Stocks finish lower after two weeks of gains

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-gains-stock-market-news-today-200406140.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street stocks inched down on Tuesday as traders returning from a long weekend grappled with oil prices' highest levels in over a year and fresh data showing China's economy is still struggling to recover.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost around 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) ended a bit lower than the flatline, reversing earlier losses.

The three major gauges were coming off a winning week that saw the S&P 500 book its best weekly performance since June, as a stream of economic updates fed hopes that the Federal Reserve would hold off from hiking interest rates at its September meeting.

Data out Tuesday showed China’s services activity fell to its lowest level in eight months in August, reviving worries about recovery in the world's second-biggest economy — and what that means for demand globally.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil (CL=F) ended the day at nearly $87 a barrel, its highest close since November 2022.

Amid the downturn debate, analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their odds of a US recession given cooling inflation and a still-resilient labor market. Plus, they played down the idea that a long drag from the Fed's rate-hiking campaign will push the economy into a severe slowdown.

With a light earnings and economic calendar ahead, the focus will likely stay on the Fed this week, when investors looking at seasonal forces in play for stocks may well find fewer reasons to be cheerful. September has historically been a downbeat month for markets.

That said, some analysts believe September may not be as bad as expected, pointing to factors such as excitement around AI, cash on the sidelines, and Apple's rumored new iPhone release."

MY COMMENT

A total lost day today. Not for any particular reason.....at least that matters. I guess we are waiting for the rest of the Wall Street crowd to get back from their August vacation.

Absolutely NOTHING happened today to move the markets......so NOTHING happened in the markets. At least most of us did not lose much today and some even had some small gains.

It is as though this is going to be a three day week....after the Monday holiday and the flat market today.