The Long Term Investor

Nice open today in spite of the Ten Year yield being up a little bit.

YEAH....Zukodany.....LETS MAKE SOME MONEY.

 

Here us the daily market narrative....not that it matters over the longer term.

Stocks gain amid hopes for soft landing

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...anding-stock-market-news-today-133513163.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street stocks jumped early Monday, as upbeat Chinese data and comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen fueled hopes for the health of the world's two biggest economies.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose around 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were up about 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) put on almost 1% amid solid gains for Tesla (TSLA) after a Morgan Stanley upgrade.

The three major gauges were looking to shake off a losing week that saw tech stocks stutter as Apple (AAPL) suffered a two-day slump, though the iPhone maker's stock was continuing to recover ahead of its highly anticipated fall event on Tuesday.

Another positive was the surge in Tesla's shares, up over 5% in the early going. Morgan Stanley analysts said the EV maker's Dojo supercomputer could add as much as $500 billion to the company's market value through faster adoption of robotaxis and network services.

This week, focus also turns to the Consumer Price Index inflation data due for release on Wednesday, a key input for investors trying to assess whether the Federal Reserve will ease up on interest rate hikes at its September meeting.

Yellen on Sunday said she's "feeling very good" about the chance the US will avoid a recession while still reining in consumer-price rises, a key factor in the Fed debate.

Meanwhile, fresh Chinese inflation and other data raised hopes the Asian powerhouse's economy could finally be on the mend, after its struggles to recover niggled at investors.

Elsewhere in Asia, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Bank of Japan could put an end keeping interest rates negative once achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight. That signals possible interest rate hikes at a central bank that has long stuck with ultra-loose policy."

MY COMMENT

The last first......China. Very convenient that they have suddenly released better data. I dont know why anyone gives their government controlled and manipulated data the slightest credibility. they manipulate and game EVERYTHING.

The rest of the "stuff" above.....really does not say anything. My buddy Yellen.......UGH.....what a worthless excuse for the markets being up today.

Since there is nothing above that is meaningful.....I see the markets being up today as simply market strength in the face of things getting oversold to the negative side over the past weeks. Prices got attractive.....so buyers are being tempted to buy.

NOW.....the real question is.....will this little bump up at the open....caused by people buying the dip.....last till the close.

 

I am simply posting this because anything that has to do with.....TWINKIES.......is a good thing.

J.M. Smucker to buy Twinkies-owner Hostess Brands in $5.6 billion deal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-m-smucker-nears-deal-023637871.html

MY COMMENT

Very ICONIC products involved here. I know many people are too young to remember......but....I remember very well the death of the TWINKIE.

"In 2012, Hostess Brands declared bankruptcy and ceased operations. Assets were liquidated, and more than 18,000 employees lost their jobs. It was the last in a series of financial disasters that took Twinkies off the market for good."

The people that came in and bought what was left of the company and revived the products made out like bandits. The events back than with this company and their iconic products has to rank up there as one of the greatest busines blunders of all time along with......."new Coke"......and....."Bud Light".

 

I find this story fascinating.....as a business case study......to continue the above.

Is Hostess Brands Still In Business?

https://financhill.com/blog/investing/is-hostess-brands-still-in-business

"Is Hostess Brands Still In Business?: A handful of companies have a special place in American popular culture, and Hostess is on that list. Twinkies, Ding Dongs, and the signature frosting swirl on Hostess cupcakes are American icons. However, brand recognition means nothing if a company is unable to evolve and adapt to changing consumer demands.

Hostess can trace its roots back to 1920, but the snack cakes truly became popular in 1940. By the 1980s, Hostess products were examples of classic Americana. Twinkies were showcased in blockbuster films like 1984’s Ghostbusters and 1988’s Die Hard. However, in the decades that followed, junk food fell out of favor, and Hostess’s sales began to decline.

When lower demand combined with increasing labor costs and higher food prices, Hostess couldn’t adjust. In 2004, Hostess entered a bankruptcy that lasted through 2009. The company attempted to redesign products with healthier lifestyles in mind. For example, it launched a series of 100-calorie snack packs like Twinkie Bites.

The trouble was that Hostess’s precarious financial position precluded the sort of investment in facilities and equipment that would make a true transformation possible. The small, affordable steps it could take were too little, too late.

In 2012, Hostess Brands declared bankruptcy and ceased operations. Assets were liquidated, and more than 18,000 employees lost their jobs. It was the last in a series of financial disasters that took Twinkies off the market for good. Or did it?

Is Hostess Still In Business?

Twinkie fans had a few terrifying months when Hostess snack cakes were scarce. Some passionate snackers hoarded boxes of Twinkies, Ding Dongs, and Ho-Hos, and a few sold their stock of Hostess products through online auction sites for many times the original price.

Fortunately, the Twinkie shortage was short-lived. In 2013, C. Dean Metropoulos (net worth $2.7 billion) bought the brand in partnership with the Apollo Group for $410 million.

Under Metropoulos’ leadership, Hostess slowly recovered its financial footing, and by 2016, the company was valued at $2.3 billion. It was much smaller, with just 1,170 employees on the payroll, and it operated three bakeries – down from 11 in 2012.

The Hostess Brands product line decreased from 150 to 90. This shortened list included new twists on old favorites in an effort to re-engage consumers.

The company’s newfound success was due, in part, to Metropoulos’ decision to prioritize facility upgrades. He oversaw significant manufacturing improvements at a total cost of approximately $130 million. All of his efforts proved effective, and the company returned to the stock exchange in November 2016 under the ticker symbol TWNK.

Hostess Brands Revenue

After nearly perishing in 2012, Hostess Brands has a new philosophy on growth: It’s not worth the risk if expansion requires a large amount of debt. As a result, the company’s product lines remain streamlined, and manufacturing focuses on execution excellence.

Hostess is interested in increasing its distribution footprint, but it is getting there organically – and the slow, cautious strategy is working. During the second quarter of 2022, Hostess Brands achieved its tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth.

On August 3, 2022, Hostess announced its second-quarter financial results. The biggest win was 17 percent organic net revenue growth. President and Chief Executive Officer Andy Callahan remarked:

I am proud of our team’s timely actions to address the ongoing supply-chain fragility and higher inflation which pressured our margins in the quarter.

Callahan went on to say that because of the higher-than-expected revenue figures, Hostess was increasing its full-year net revenue guidance. Now, the company expects at least 15 percent growth for full-year 2022.

Hostess Brands Earnings

High inflation makes manufacturing products more expensive because there is an increase in the cost of raw materials. A portion of that expense is passed along to consumers, but most companies absorb some of the increased cost in the form of reduced margins.

Unfortunately, Hostess isn’t in the rare position of being able to persuade consumers to cover the entire cost of inflation, so for the second quarter of 2022, Hostess saw gross margins decrease by 295 basis points year-over-year. In addition, adjusted gross margins declined by 299 basis points.

Gross profits went up to $112.7 million for the quarter – a year-over-year increase of 7.2 percent. Adjusted gross profits totaled $112.8 million, which represents a year-over-year increase of 7.1 percent. To look at it another way, gross profits constituted 33.1 percent of net revenue."

Net income increased by a small amount year-over-year to a total of $30.5 million ($0.22 per diluted share). Adjusted net income also totaled $30.5 million ($0.22 per diluted share), which is a small decrease year-over-year.

Adjusted EBITDA went up by 0.7 percent for a total of $68.9 million. This puts the company on track to achieve its full-year 2022 EBITDA projections of $280 to $290 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.93 to $0.98."

MY COMMENT

The real story here was management malpractice combined with.....labor union demands that bankrupted the company. Of course....in the end....those unions shot themselves in the foot as all the jobs were lost.......when they drove the company into bankruptcy. Also.....an early example of messing with iconic products.....under the guise of......"healthier lifestyle".

Luckily smart business people saw a golden opportunity and ran with it.....recreating the company and reviving the iconic product line.

 

YES.......the reason for this is....OBVIOUS.

90% of companies say they’ll return to the office by the end of 2024—but the 5-day commute is ‘dead,’ experts say

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/90p...-return-to-the-office-by-the-end-of-2024.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The debate over whether or not to return to the office is far from settled — and yet, the push to get employees back to the office is getting more aggressive.

Goldman Sachs wants employees in five days a week. Google is factoring employees’ in-office attendance into their performance reviews.

A whopping 90% of companies plan to implement return-to-office policies by the end of 2024, according to an Aug. report from Resume Builder, which surveyed 1,000 company leaders. Nearly 30% say their company will threaten to fire employees who don’t comply with in-office requirements.

Only 2% of business leaders said their company never plans to require employees to work in person.

The renewed push to end remote work comes as more CEOs openly acknowledge their disdain for the model, arguing that productivity, collaboration and employee engagement all suffer without the office.

“It’s easier for executives to hold on to the old notion that people are really working if they can see them down the hall,” says Dan Kaplan, a senior client partner at Korn Ferry. “It’s almost too hard for some leaders to comprehend a world where that option doesn’t exist, or to consider a radical new approach.”

Even though more companies have introduced stricter in-office requirements for employees, office occupancy has remained relatively unchanged from the past year.

During the first week of September, the average occupancy rate in offices in the top 10 cities in the US was 47.3% of pre-pandemic levels, compared to 44% this time last year, according to data from Kastle Systems.

Why return to the office at all?

Companies are reluctant to give up their 9-to-5 in-person schedules for “more emotional than intellectual reasons,” says Kaplan.

“The message I hear from executives is, ‘We never intended for the world to change this dramatically and the office to just go away,’” he says. “Then, there’s the popular argument that people are less connected to their company and to their peers without the office, which is bad news for employee engagement and retention.”

In a 2022 Korn Ferry survey of 15,000 global executives, two-thirds agreed that corporate culture accounts for more than 30% of their company’s market value. Many leaders, the report notes, believe that a strong culture can only be established and maintained “if everyone is — at least some of the time — occupying the same workplace.”

CEOs also justify their stance with the belief that workers are more productive in the office. Amazon’s Andy Jassy, for example, told employees that “it’s easier to learn, model, practice and strengthen our culture when we’re in the office together most of the time and surrounded by colleagues.”

Yet research has failed to draw definitive conclusions about remote workers’ productivity. In the U.S., employee productivity rose by 4.4% in 2020 and 2.2% in 2021, before falling in 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 2023, however, labor productivity rose 3.7% during the second quarter, and is up 1.3% compared to this time last year.

“The individual free-for-all work policy doesn’t work,” says Brian Elliott, an executive advisor on flexibility and the founder of the research consortium Future Forum. “There really is some benefit to getting people together on a regular basis to drive relationship-building, mentorship and collaboration.”

Per Resume Builder, the “vast majority” of business leaders say they have seen an improvement in revenue, productivity and employee retention since returning to the office.

‘Five days a week in the office is dead’

Even as large firms on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley consider a full return to in-person work, workplace experts agree that most organizations will stick with the post-pandemic norm of spending two to three days per week in the office.

“I think the concept of spending five days a week in the office is dead,” says Elliott. “That top-down, one-size-fits-all approach can lead to a lot of resentment among workers.”

With that kind of mandate, “organizations are risking a real break of trust with their employees,” says Susan Vroman, a lecturer in management at Bentley University.

Employees overwhelmingly prefer hybrid work: About 68% of full-time workers support a hybrid work schedule, working at least one day a week remotely and the other days in an office, a recent Bankrate survey of over 2,000 adults in the U.S. found.

Whether a company is increasing its in-office requirements, or introducing them for the first time, “transparency is key,” Vroman adds. “Especially for companies who said employees could work wherever they wanted to, how do you convince them that going back to the office is the right thing to do?”

The only industries Kaplan expects to continue to push for a full return to the office are tech, financial services and retail, as leaders in those fields tend to spend more on commercial real estate and are “the most adamant” that remote work can pose security concerns.

Other companies, Vroman says, will opt for a more structured hybrid work arrangement, requiring employees to come in on certain days of the week rather than allowing them to choose the number of days they work remotely, which can lead to “people being on Zoom all day surrounded by empty desks.”

Offering a flexible, hybrid model is also a smart recruiting tactic, Elliott adds. “The job market might have softened to some degree, but there’s always competition for top talent,” he says. “People still want flexibility at work, and they’re ready to walk if they don’t get it.“"

MY COMMENT

As a former busines owner....I cant imagine running any company....with permanent work from home.

Failure to have employees in-office for at least three days a week......will destroy any chance of training and fostering your next generation of management. It is a KILLER of company culture and morale. It is also a KILLER of employee cooperation and interaction. Not to mention.....(thank you Elon)....people pretending to work from home.

 

The above is a dead horse issue at this point....companies are speaking out and acting to get their people back. BUT....I had to beat on this dead horse once again....sorry.

 

Twinkies......the dead horse issue of remote work.......this stuff shows you where I am today in terms of the markets. They are of course still UP although not quite as strongly. There is NOTHING happening today. I consider that a good thing.

 

As to NVDA.

Down again today. I dont see any real reason for the weakness lately. In fact all the news that I have been able to find is positive or at worst neutral. For example:

Sundar Pichai says Google and Nvidia will still be working together 10 years from now

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/sun...ll-be-working-together-10-years-from-now.html

I have been looking for any negative info for about 20 minutes now and cant really find anything. SO.....simply a meaningless short term drop driven by profit taking and day trading.

 

Today is one of those old time....."you cant fight the tape"....days. Nothing to point to as to why the markets are up or down.

So....I will move on to other business and reading and let the markets just do their thing.

 

I just had to look.

I am generally about flat today. i do have five stocks UP at the moment......AMZN, COST, MSFT, HON, and AAPL.

Even the down stocks.......HD and GOOGL.....are down so slightly as to be more accurately be called flat today so far.

NVDA.....well.....short term irrationality, profit taking, and trading going on.

I have not looked at volume to today....but the very slight gains and losses on many of my stocks seems to indicate a very shallow market today.

 

As to my local real property market. My area of 4200 homes is collapsing.....in terms of listings. There are now only......34 active homes for sale.....out of 4200 homes. Yes....school has started and we are heading to Fall soon....but....this is a big collapse in the market that must be having a big impact on house hunters and realtors. There is simply NOTHING for sale.

I still see homes going pending.....but the listing side of the market is dead, dead, dead. The couple of homes that were for sale in my immediate neighborhood are now all sold. I am not seeing any weakness in prices at all....at least here in my local area.

 

Since it is a slow market day.

"AS USUAL.........HERE is my current PORTFOLIO MODEL.

I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc.

PORTFOLIO MODEL

"Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 60% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 40% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing.

As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD.

STOCKS:

Alphabet Inc
Amazon
Apple
Costco
Home Depot
Honeywell
Microsoft
Nvidia


MUTUAL FUNDS:

SP500 Index Fund
Fidelity Contra Fund

CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (73). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)"

MY COMMENT

This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."

 

We all know that today is the 9-11 anniversary.

If you are considering a charity or.....are part of a company or credit card or some other program that donates to charity for you.....consider TUNNEL TO TOWERS. They are one of the highest rated charities.....and....they focus on Military, first responders, and others.

I donate to them every year at Christmas time....a lump sum.

Tunnel to Towers Earns Coveted 4-Star Rating from Charity Navigator for 7th Consecutive Year
The Foundation received a perfect score in the Accountability and Transparency category

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/ne...arity-Navigator-for-7th-Consecutive-Year.html

"Staten Island, NY, April 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- For a seventh straight year, the Tunnel to Towers Foundation has earned both the highest rating, 4-stars, from Charity Navigator and a perfect 100 score in the 'Accountability & Transparency' category.

Tunnel to Towers is honored to have its financial health and commitment to accountability and transparency recognized by America’s largest independent charity evaluator for a seventh straight year.

Since 2002, using objective analysis, Charity Navigator has awarded only the most fiscally responsible organizations a 4-star rating.

“The Tunnel to Towers Foundation’s exceptional 4-star rating sets it apart from its peers and demonstrates its trustworthiness to the public,” according to Michael Thatcher, President & CEO of Charity Navigator. “This is our highest possible rating and only 8% of the charities we evaluate have received at least seven consecutive 4-star evaluations, indicating that the Tunnel to Towers Foundation outperforms most other charities in America.”

Since its inception Tunnel to Towers has been committed to practicing sound fiscal management, organizational efficiency and program integrity. Tunnel to Towers prides itself on keeping fundraising and administrative costs to a minimum, with only a small percentage of funds allocated to overhead expenses.

For the past several years, the Foundation’s program service percentage was 93% on average, meaning 93 cents out of every dollar goes directly to our programs and services.

“Now more than ever it’s critical that donors know the Foundation is using their hard-earned money as wisely as possible to support the families of those who risk and lose their lives to keep us safe,” said Tunnel to Towers Chairman and CEO Frank Siller.

More on Tunnel to Towers’ rating and other information about charitable giving are available free of charge on www.charitynavigator.org. "

You can help Tunnel to Towers provide mortgage-free homes to the families of fallen first responders, injured veterans, and Gold Star families by donating $11 per month at T2T.org.

About the Tunnel to Towers Foundation

The Tunnel to Towers Foundation is dedicated to honoring the sacrifice of FDNY Firefighter Stephen Siller, who laid down his life to save others on September 11, 2001. For 20 years the Foundation has supported our nation’s first responders, veterans, and their families by providing these heroes and the families they leave behind with mortgage-free homes. For more about the Tunnel to Towers Foundation and its commitment to DO GOOD, please visit tunnel2towers.org.

Follow Tunnel to Towers on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram at @Tunnel2Towers.

About Charity Navigator

Charity Navigator, www.charitynavigator.org, is the largest charity evaluator in America and its website attracts more visitors than all other charity rating groups combined. The organization helps guide intelligent giving by evaluating the Financial Health and Accountability & Transparency of more than 8,000 charities. Charity Navigator accepts no advertising or donations from the organizations it evaluates, ensuring unbiased evaluations, nor does it charge the public for this trusted data. As a result, Charity Navigator, a 501 (c) (3) public charity itself, depends on support from individuals, corporations and foundations that believe it provides a much-needed service to America's charitable givers. Charity Navigator, can be reached directly by telephone at (201) 818-1288, or by mail at 139 Harristown Road, Suite 101, Glen Rock, N.J., 07452."

MY COMMENT

Their current rating is STILL 100% and 4 stars........the highest rating.

https://t2t.org/

Looking at their tax data for 2021.....the key officers take $0 in compensation.

FRANK SILLER (CHAIRMAN & C) $0
GEORGE SILLER (VICE CHAIR) $0
JANIS HANNON (VICE CHAIR) $0
MARY SCULLIN (TREASURER) $0
REGINA VOGT (SECRETARY) $0
COMMISSIONER SALVATORE CASSANO (DIRECTOR) $0
JOHN V LABARBERA (DIRECTOR) $0

 

OK.....not a bad day for the markets today. They managed to end the day....with some good strength. Even poor NVDA managed to recover most of it's losses by market end.

I had a good moderate gain today in my stocks. Six of eight were UP. the two that were down today were....HD (barely) and NVDA.

I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.10%.

All in all.....a good start to the week.

 

Here is the market today.

Stocks notch back-to-back wins Monday, Nasdaq pops 1% as tech shares rebound

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks rose Monday to start a big week of inflation data as investors bought up tech shares in the wake of recent weakness.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied by 1.14% to 13,917.89. The S&P 500 gained 0.67% to 4,487.46. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 87.13 points, or 0.25%, to 34,663.72, aided by a rise in Walt Disney
shares.



CNBC


Tesla shares jumped 10% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock and predicted a significant rally ahead because of breakthroughs with its autonomous software. Qualcomm shares rose nearly 4% after the semiconductor company said Monday it will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), made up of the tech shares in the S&P 500, was down 1.5% in August and off by more than 1% this month. On Monday, however, the ETF was higher by about 0.5%. It’s up nearly 40% on the year.

Elsewhere, Disney shares rose about 1.2% after CNBC’s David Faber reported Monday, citing sources, the media conglomerate and Charter Communications have reached a deal to end their cable blackout fight.

Bullish sentiment Monday was helped by a report in The Wall Street Journal report on Sunday saying there was a consensus among the Federal Reserve not to raise rates at next week’s meeting. The report also cited a policy shift in which members are seeing less urgency to add another rate hike later this year, as inflation data has been improving.

“It certainly helps that the market’s thinking that the Fed is probably done and maybe transitioning into a new strategy,” said U.S. Bank’s Rob Haworth, adding, “And that’s giving them some hope that we’re kind of past the toughest spots for corporate earnings.”

Investors are looking forward to key inflation data in the week ahead after a string of stronger-than-expected economic data points last week had renewed worries that the Federal Reserve could raise rates more than previously expected.

Wednesday and Thursday bring the latest consumer price index and producer price index readings, respectively. Investors are hoping for low readings, although both are expected to jump due to energy cost pressures.

Apple will also hold its product event on Tuesday, dubbed “Wonderlust,” during which the company is widely anticipated to unveil the iPhone 15."

MY COMMENT

Seemed like a different tone in the markets today.....more positive and more based on actual substantial information.

As to the FED......the Wall Street Journal article referenced above....is a MAJOR leak to the media....if it did in fact come from various FED members. this sort of leak is not an accident.

These are very positive indicators for the future and the rest of this year for investors.

 

As to the general markets......today seems like a good break from the recent market trend. It was a breath of fresh air....or.....like a break in the 100 degree plus weather....which happened and was very welcome.....here in Central Texas today.

I believe baring some sort of big negative event that we are al set up right now for a good year end rally. Of course....that will depend on the third quarter earnings being nice. I expect they will come in very nicely and continue the good earnings beats of the past quarters.

 

I like this little article.

Drawbacks to a Dividend-First Focus

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...commentary/drawbacks-to-a-dividendfirst-focus

(BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content)

"No category of stock is perfect.

Pop quiz: What do a Bloomberg piece on office REITs’ recent rebound and a Wall Street Journal look at Utilities stocks’ 2023 troubles have in common? Answer: Both show why a heavy focus on dividends is unwise. In the former, while these securities’ prices may be bouncing, the funds are cutting dividends left and right. And in the latter, Utilities’ “chunky” dividends aren’t enough to entice investors to bid them up … or compensate for falling prices. We like dividends just fine, but we don’t think forming a portfolio around them is a winning approach.

There are times when we are sort of jealous of high dividend stocks. Everyone seems to love them and overlook their flaws. S&P labels the biggest ones “aristocrats,” as if they spend their days at garden parties wearing only the finest linen and hats. Headlines often pitch them as all-around performers. Allegedly, their big yields turbocharge returns in bull markets and cushion the pain during bear markets and recessions. Like a magic tonic, they are good for whatever ails you! Some folks will even completely overlook poor price performance when a stock pays a heavy dividend.

Here is the simple, boring, perhaps maddening truth: High dividend-paying stocks are just stocks. And like all other stocks, they have their time in the sun as well as the rain. Dividend payers fell during last year’s bear market. Not as much as broad markets, but their double-digit swoon was no picnic. Since last October’s low they are lagging, which is about what we would expect given the categories that drive the bear market lower tend to bounce disproportionately, too. Granted, dividend payers are still ahead modestly since January 2022’s highs, but the sector and style concentrations of the high-dividend universe make us skeptical that high-dividend stocks will be this bull market’s big winners.

This is because dividend stocks tend to cluster in value-heavy areas—think Utilities, Financials, Consumer Staples and Health Care. All are unlikely to lead in a bull market where growth stocks do much of the heavy lifting, which we think is the likeliest scenario for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, three of them (Utilities, Staples and Health Care) are traditionally sectors that lag in bull markets. Investors today are looking for the stocks most capable of boosting earnings in a slow-growing global economy—true growth stocks. This has a lot of overlap with Tech stocks, which are 22.5% of the MSCI World Index’s market cap but just 10.3% of the MSCI World High Dividend Index. High-dividend stocks also have less exposure to growthy Consumer Discretionary and a whopping blind spot to the growth-oriented Interactive Media & Services industry within Communication Services. Concentrating in dividend stocks, therefore, amounts to making sector decisions that inadvertently cut against this young bull market’s characteristics.

And that assumes these dividend payers remain high dividend payers. One of the more frustrating things about dividends is that sometimes they go away. Management may elect to stop paying dividends in tough times or if they have a burning capex need. In the Financials sector, dividends are subject to regulators’ whims and can vanish if a bank doesn’t do quite as well on its annual (arbitrary) stress test as the Fed wants. Here, too, elective dividend cuts have happened, with perhaps the most extreme example being 2008’s financial crisis. Those cuts happened as bank stocks got pounded, adding insult to injury.

Again, we aren’t anti-dividend. But we don’t think it should be the sole or even chief factor determining whether you buy. Similarly, we think it is best to focus on your portfolio’s total return—price movement plus dividends—and not obsess over yield. You may have some big dividend payers, and you may leave some others on the table if they don’t fit your sector, industry and style outlooks. Either way, you won’t be limited to the narrow pool of high-dividend stocks, giving you more opportunities to diversify."

MY COMMENT

My portfolio model used to be full of big dividend BIG CAP consumer companies. Companies that were long time monster stocks like Proctor & Gamble. Those types of stocks were my bread and butter till the 1990's. they provided me a guaranteed return of about 2% per year in dividends alone.....and....I believe they did tend to go down less in bear markets.

Over the year since the 1990's my stock list has evolved to include many TECH stocks.....which tend to pay less in dividends. That is called.......INVESTOR EVOLUTION. I try to still stick with the BIG CAP side of the markets....but with more emphasis on tech and young BIG CAP companies.

I see this a simply keeping up with the times.