The Long Term Investor

After a good day yesterday we are seeing a mildly negative open today. At the open weakness in the TECH area was a definate factor. Here is the open.

Stocks slip ahead of Apple event, with inflation data in view

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...n-view-stock-market-news-today-111821697.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks opened lower on Wall Street on Tuesday, as investors waited for Apple's highly anticipated fall event to kick off and counted down to Wednesday's key inflation data report.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the retreat, down about 0.3% amid a tumble in Oracle (ORCL) shares after the software maker posted slowing cloud sales growth. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped about 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped about 0.1%.

Tech stocks will take center stage on Tuesday, with Apple (AAPL) is expected to launch the iPhone 15 at its highly anticipated fall event, and as anticipation builds for the blockbuster Arm IPO. The chip designer will close its order book early, by Tuesday afternoon, the listing is up to 10 times oversubscribed, reports said.

Meanwhile, rising oil prices gave heft to worries about inflation's resistance to the Fed's efforts to cool pressures. WTI crude and Brent futures climbed to trade near nine-month highs early Tuesday, after OPEC data showed global oil markets face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day next quarter.

Investors are gearing up for Wednesday's crucial US consumer inflation print, as they watch for signs of a slowdown in spending. Thursday will bring more insight into households' resilience when the August retail sales report is released.

This week's clutch of economic data will be weighed for their potential to influence the Federal Reserve at its upcoming September meeting. Investors are assessing whether more interest-rate hikes remain on the table, and if so, whether they've been priced into the stock market."

MY COMMENT

Same old.....same old. Lets trot out the same old fear mongering topics.....even though they don't have much ability to move investors anymore.....at least long term. Pretty dull and irrelevant stuff above.

I mean.....come on.....oil prices and inflation. give me a break.....the rise in oil prices is simply manipulation by producers......and like ALL times this happened din the past it will collapse.

But......I dont doubt that there are traders focused on this short term JUNK. That is the difference between traders and "investors".

 

I dont know.....or even care about....cuts in 2024,.......but,.....I do believe there is a PROBABILITY that the rate hikes are over.

Fed is done raising rates and will cut them in 2024, economists say

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-done-raising-rates-cut-192646331.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and will likely cut them by roughly one percentage point next year, according to chief economists at some of North America’s largest banks.

While the US will probably dodge a recession, economic growth looks set to slow markedly in the coming quarters, pushing up unemployment while reducing inflation, the latest forecast from the American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee shows.

“Given both demonstrated and anticipated progress on inflation, the majority of the committee members believe the Fed’s tightening cycle has run its course,” said Simona Mocuta, chair of the 14-member panel and chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.

The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting next week, though investors are divided over whether it will follow that up with a rate increase later in the year.

The ABA advisory committee includes economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. Its forecasts are regularly presented to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and fellow members of the central bank’s board in Washington.

The committee sees economic growth slowing to less than an annualized 1% rate in the coming three quarters in response to the Fed’s past interest-rate increases and a tightening of credit conditions, according to their median forecast.

Unemployment is projected to rise to 4.4% by the end of next year, from 3.8% in August, while consumer price inflation is forecast to ease to 2.2% from 3.2% in July.

“As a consensus for the committee, the odds of a soft landing have improved quite dramatically in the near term,” Mocuta told reporters via Zoom. “But at the same time, a lot of concerns remain about how sustainable is this extraordinary resilience that the economy has so far demonstrated.”

The committee sees the odds of a recession next year at just under 50%."

MY COMMENT

I agree with the above.....but....for different primary reason. I posted some content yesterday about the Wall Street Journal reporting what I would call an intentional leak from the FED. That "leak" (my term)....made it clear that the FED was done. YES....they will still bluster and talk tough....but the actual hikes.....probably done for now.

As to when cuts start......who knows and at this point....who cares. Lets focus on the hikes ending for now....that is potential good news.

 

Markets are up for grabs today. So I will simply sit and wait for the direction to become clear. At that point.....of course....I will continue to sit and do nothing.

 

i dont try to sort out day to day stocks moves. But....here are a few items that might account for some of the recent drop in NVDA.

NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang Sells Over $42 Million Worth of Shares as the Resistance at the $500 Price Level Holds Firm

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-jensen-huang-sells-over-42-million-worth-of-shares/

Did Nvidia Inflate Q2 Results? Analyst Says 'Don't Get Your Investment Thesis From Twitter Randos'

https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ra...says-dont-get-your-investment-thesis-from-twi

NVIDIA TIME TO GET OUT

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4634597-nvidia-time-to-get-out-rating-downgrade

MY COMMENT

True or not this is the sort of stuff that can drive a few days of stock action. I am not posting this stuff because it is important....just as an example of what looks like a little flood of negative articles on NVDA lately. I dont consider any of the JUNK as substantive.

 

I just spent most of the morning trying to locate a LED light board for my ceiling fan.

Of course the part is not available because the company went bankrupt. AND.....none of the replacement LED boards for fans on amazon or the internet have the same configuration. I could take the light out of another fan in the house that we rarely use the light on. Or....I could buy an entire fan on eBay at a hefty discount since they are new-old-stock......and just use the LED board from that fan and keep the rest of the parts as spares. That would cost $156.

The LED was "supposed" to last for 50,000 hours.....that would be 17 years at 8 hours per day. It actually lasted about 3 years at much less than 8 hours a day. THE WONDERS OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY.

In the end I just put it back together and we will simply not use that light. It is not a primary light source in that room anyway.

 

I looked at my account a minute ago. DOWN of course....considering the markets at the moment. I did have two stocks UP today so far.....NVDA and HON. A long way to go to the close.

I do like the fact that the markets are relatively skittish lately. I would rather see than than EXUBERANCE.

 

Ok ended in the red as expected. A medium level loss today in my stocks. I had only two stocks UP today....COST and HON. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.27%.

At least we get the inflation data tomorrow....that should give us a shot at a good day for stocks.

 

The market end today.

Tech stocks tumble as focus turns to inflation data

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tech...n-data-stock-market-news-today-200430965.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Wall Street stocks finished lower on Tuesday as Apple kicked off its highly anticipated fall event and investors counted down to Wednesday's key inflation data.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) retreated more than 1% amid a tumble in Oracle stock (ORCL) after the software maker posted slowing cloud sales growth. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped about 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) pared earlier losses to finish roughly flat.

Tech stocks took center stage on Tuesday, with Apple (AAPL) announcing the launch of the iPhone 15 at its annual event. Apple stock was down 1.7% on the day. That was coupled with building anticipation for the blockbuster Arm IPO. The chip designer will close its order book early, by Tuesday afternoon; the listing is up to 10 times oversubscribed, reports said.

Meanwhile, rising oil prices added to concerns about inflation's resistance to the Fed's efforts to cool pressures. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures climbed to trade near nine-month highs early Tuesday, after OPEC data showed global oil markets face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day next quarter.

Investors are gearing up for Wednesday's crucial US inflation data, as they watch for signs of a slowdown in spending. Thursday will bring more insight into households' resilience when the August retail sales report is released.

This week's clutch of economic data will be weighed for its potential to influence the Federal Reserve at its upcoming September meeting. Investors are assessing whether more interest rate hikes remain on the table, and if so, whether they've been priced into the stock market."

MY COMMENT

Not a very significant day today. Of course we had the Apple launch.....which did not do anything for the tech side of the markets including APPLE. A basic NOTHING day today.

 

Speaking of APPLE.

Apple event: Here's everything the iPhone maker unveiled on Tuesday
Highlights from the event include the Apple iPhone 15 and Apple iPhone 15 Pro lines, USB-C charging ports, and new features on the Apple Watch Series 9.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/appl...hone-maker-unveiled-on-tuesday-204313341.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Apple (AAPL) held its big product unveiling event of the year on Tuesday.

The event comes with high expectations for the company's millions of consumers and world of watchers. This time around, there was some surprise around pricing — Apple mostly didn't raise prices, with the new iPhone Max as the sole exception.

Here are all the products that the company showed off for the first time at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters.

Apple iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro lines

Apple revealed its latest smartphones, including the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, the iPhone 15 Pro, and the iPhone 15 Pro Max.

Starting at $799, the iPhone 15 is the cheapest of the lot, followed by the iPhone 15 Plus, which comes in at a baseline price of $899. Meanwhile, the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max will start at $999 and $1,199, respectively.

Pre-orders for the new iPhones begin Friday, September 15, and they will be available starting Sept. 22.

The key change in both phone lines is their new USB-C charging ports, which are in compliance with new European Union regulations looking to cut back on e-waste. The second generation of AirPods Pro will also use the USB-C charging port.

The iPhone Pro models feature the new A17 Pro Chip, which Apple says is 3 nanometers and the fastest in any smartphone. The chip features a 16-core neural engine that Apple says is two times faster than before.

Gaming will also be emphasized in the iPhone 15, as Apple said it's rolling out Capcom's "Resident Evil 8" and "Resident Evil 4" games for the smartphones.

Apple Watch

Additionally, new smartwatches joined Apple's lineup, including the Apple Watch Series 9 and the higher-end Apple Watch Ultra 2. The Apple Watch lineup is available for pre-order starting today.

The Apple Watch SE is priced at $249, while the Apple Watch Series 9 is $399. For its part, the Apple Watch Ultra 2 starts at $799.

The watches themselves feature a new pink color, and the company's S9 chip, which purports to speed up processing times.

The most notable new feature on the Apple Watches is called Double Tap — a physical gesture that allows you to answer calls, scroll through widgets, start and stop music, or silence alarms. Additionally, new Siri health interactions allow users to log sleep, weight, and other health markers.

Throughout the event, Apple emphasized sustainability, and the company touted the Apple Watch Series 9 as the company's first-ever completely carbon-neutral product.

Apple stock fell more than 1% on Tuesday, as the Apple event took place. Year to date, shares are up over 35%."

MY COMMENT

Sounds like more upgrades than new products. I dont see any of these as being HUGE business generators. But...what do I know I am still using an iPhone 11......and will probably continue to do so for years. I do have a new MacBook Air which I really like.

 

I think this is a great little article for anyone near Social Security age. It is also pretty good for younger people to understand what is important in planing their earnings to maximize Social Security.

How Much You Will Get From Social Security
Here's how to estimate your monthly Social Security income in retirement.

https://money.usnews.com/money/reti...es/how-much-you-will-get-from-social-security

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"It can be difficult to predict how much you will receive from Social Security, especially if you are more than a few years away from retirement. But familiarizing yourself with how your benefit will be calculated can help you budget for retirement and even boost your future Social Security payments.

Here's how to estimate how much you will get from Social Security in retirement:

• Consider the average payment.
• Calculate your Social Security payment.
• Factor in your retirement age.
• Subtract Medicare premiums.
• Remember income tax withholding.
• Create a My Social Security account.

Consider the Average Social Security Payment

Thanks to an 8.7% jump in the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, the average Social Security benefit increased to $1,827 per month in 2023, up from $1,681 in 2022. The maximum possible Social Security benefit for someone who retires at full retirement age is $3,627 in 2023. However, a worker would need to earn the maximum taxable amount, currently $160,200 for 2023, over a 35-year career to get this Social Security payment.

How to Calculate Your Social Security Payment

Social Security payments are calculated using the 35 highest-earning years of your career and are adjusted for inflation. If you work for more than 35 years, your lowest-earning years are dropped from the calculation, which results in a higher payment. Those who don't work for 35 years have zeros averaged into the Social Security calculation and get smaller payments.

"When it's time to calculate your benefits, the Social Security Administration will look at your highest 35 years of earnings, and earnings before your 60th birthday are indexed for inflation– meaning that while your earnings may have crept up over your career, the money you earn this year may not be one of your highest-earnings years after indexing," says Jim Blankenship, a certified financial planner at Blankenship Financial Planning in New Berlin, Illinois, and author of "A Social Security Owner's Manual."

For a worker who becomes eligible for Social Security payments in 2023, the benefit amount is calculated by multiplying the first $1,115 of average indexed monthly earnings by 90%, the remaining earnings up to $6,721 by 32%, and earnings over $6,721 by 15%. The sum of these three amounts, rounded down to the nearest 10 cents, is the initial payment amount. Cost-of-living adjustments and delayed retirement credits can boost your payments above this amount.

Factor in Your Social Security Retirement Age

Your age when you start Social Security plays a big role in your payment amount. Your monthly Social Security benefit is reduced if you claim payments before your full retirement age, which is typically age 66 or 67, depending on your birth year. You can boost your monthly payments for each month you delay claiming between your full retirement age and age 70.

Married couples have more claiming options. Married individuals are eligible for Social Security payments equal to 50% of the higher-earning spouse's payment if that's more than the payments based on their own work record. Spousal payments are reduced if you claim them before your full retirement age. You can also claim payments based on an ex-spouse's work record if the marriage lasted for at least 10 years. A spouse can claim survivor's payments if the higher-earning spouse passes away first. Couples should coordinate when they claim payments to maximize their benefit as a couple and to potentially qualify for higher payments for a surviving spouse.

Subtract Medicare Premiums

Many retirees have their Medicare Part B premiums deducted from their Social Security checks. The standard Medicare Part B premium is $164.90 per month in 2023. Medicare Part B payments are prohibited by law from decreasing Social Security payments for existing beneficiaries, so a Medicare Part B premium hike can't be more than your annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.

"Some might see their Social Security check go down not due to their Part B premium, but due to their Part D drug premium," says Tricia Neuman, executive director of the Program on Medicare Policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation. "The Part D program doesn't have a hold harmless provision." Medicare Part D premiums vary based on the plan you select, and you are eligible to change plans each year during the open enrollment period.

Remember Income Tax Withholding

Many retirees have to pay income tax on their Social Security payments, especially if they have other sources of retirement income. "If Social Security is your only source of income, you pay no taxes on it," says Dana Anspach, a certified financial planner and CEO of Sensible Money in Scottsdale, Arizona. "If you have other sources of income, such as a pension, IRA withdrawals, part-time work, interest and dividends, then that income flows into the IRS formula, and the result is somewhere between zero and 85% of your Social Security benefits are subject to taxation." You can elect to have 7%, 10%, 12% or 22% of your Social Security payments withheld for income tax."

MY COMMENT

In about a month we will see what the cost of living adjustment will be for Social Security payments in 2024. I am hoping for 3%. I doubt it will be any higher than that.

In my case.....for myself and my wife out Social Security payments total about $50,000 per year.....before deductions for Medicare part and part D.

 

Nice data above Smokie. Looks good to me........and....that is not "core inflation". The measure that the FED primarily uses is the "core" data which omits energy and food. That measure was only up slightly by 0.3% in August and fell to 4.3% from 4.7% in July.

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-august-2023-in-one-chart.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• The August 2023 consumer price index rose 3.7% on an annual basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.
• The increase was mostly attributable to a spike in gasoline prices in August. That increase should be temporary, economists said.
• At a high level, inflationary pressures are due to an imbalance between supply and demand. They’ve been felt globally during the pandemic era.

Inflation jumped in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index.

But there’s good news for Americans: That increase is likely temporary, economists said. Outside of energy, there are signs that inflation continued its broad retreat last month, they said.

“This should just be a temporary interruption of the downward trend,” said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

“Broadly, we’re already seeing pretty clear signs the situation is approaching normal again,” he added.

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023 — in one chart

(CLICK ON LINK FOR CHART)

In August, the CPI increased 3.7% from 12 months earlier, up from 3.2% in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.

The rate has fallen from a pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the highest since 1981.

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets.

How gas prices contributed to higher inflation

Gasoline prices jumped 10.6% in August alone, following a 0.2% increase in July, according to Wednesday’s CPI report. (The BLS adjusts those numbers for seasonal trends.) Gasoline cost $3.84 a gallon, on average, as of Tuesday, according to AAA.

Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for over half of the increase, according to the BLS.

The increase is largely attributable to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, Hunter said. On Tuesday, oil prices hit their highest levels since November.

Transportation costs — including gasoline — are the second-largest expense for the average household, according to the U.S. Department of Labor’s consumer expenditures survey. (Housing is the largest.)

While rising gasoline prices may be challenging for consumers from a budgetary perspective, it’s unlikely they’ll be sustained beyond another month or two, Hunter said.

While gasoline prices have risen in the short-term, they’ve declined 3.3% from a year ago.

‘Core’ inflation showed a ‘bump in the road’

When assessing underlying inflation trends, economists generally like to look at one measure that strips out energy and food prices, which tend to be volatile from month to month. This pared-down measure — known as “core” CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July.

On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July.The economy would need consistent monthly core CPI readings of 0.2% to get the U.S. back to its pre-pandemic baseline, a time when inflation was low and stable, economists said.

The increase in monthly core CPI “is a little bump in the road,” said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.

“It doesn’t mean it’s turning around and going in the other direction,” Bruun said. “Overall, most of the pieces are headed in the right direction.”

The overall trend does show us that inflation remains moderate, says American Progress’ Emily Gee

Housing was the largest contributor to the rise in core CPI in August, according to the BLS.

However, rent inflation is poised to keep falling, economists said. That’s because new monthly rent prices have “slowed very sharply” in the U.S. over the past year or so, but such trends generally feed through to the CPI data with a lag, Hunter said.

Other “notable” contributors to inflation over the past year include motor vehicle insurance (prices are up 19.1% from August 2022), recreation (up 3.5%), personal care (5.8%) and new vehicles (2.9%), the BLS said.

Conversely, easing price pressures for groceries — a “staple household expense” — have been a “bright spot” for consumers, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

Inflation is multi-pronged and global

Inflation during the pandemic era has been a “complicated phenomenon” stemming from “multiple sources and complex dynamic interactions,” according to a paper published in May and co-authored by Ben Bernanke, former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Olivier Blanchard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

At a high level, inflationary pressures — which have been felt globally — are due to an imbalance between supply and demand.

For example, the pandemic snarled global supply chains and led price to surge as the U.S. economy reopened. Basically, consumers unleashed pent-up demand while there was a shortage of goods.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 exacerbated backlogs in the global supply chain and fueled higher prices for food, energy and other commodities.

And a hot labor market led employers to raise wages at the fastest pace in decades, feeding through to inflation particularly in labor-intensive service industries.

Those trends have largely unwound, Hunter said. Wage growth is still “quite high” but coming down and the broad labor market is easing, he said.

“We’ve definitely come a long way in terms of getting back to normal,” he said. “We’re not all the way there yet.”

MY COMMENT

The report today is actually a good one. The "CORE INFLATION" is generally in line with expectations and does not show a significant issue. Of course....those in the media nad elsewhere that want to hype the negative will focus on the higher "HEADLINE INFLATION".

On "CORE INFLATION" economists were anticipating a rate of 3.6%.....statistically in line with what we got at 3.7%. SO actually a good report right in line with expectations. That is why the markets are NOT freaking out today.

 

I like this little article today.

What’s happening with the ‘Goldilocks economy’ — and what it means for your stock portfolio

https://nypost.com/2023/09/10/whats...y-and-what-it-means-for-your-stock-portfolio/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Goldilocks’ porridge is getting cold again – and the bears are already sniffing their way back to the house.

With late August’s economic reports showing the US is growing steadily stronger, talk of a “Goldilocks economy” emerged earlier this month. The decades-old catchphrase sets an ideal for growth that’s “not too hot, not too cold…just right” in order to keep the bears at bay.

But in the weeks since, the positive sentiment once again appears to have been dismissed as so much fairy-tale bunkum. Stocks have languished this month after the S&P 500 closed in the red for August, its worst month since February.

Why have the bears returned so quickly? It’s partly a question of market psychology. Let me explain.

In 1992, Salomon Brothers’ analyst David Shulman legendarily dubbed “Goldilocks” an economy growing 4% annualized with 3.2% year-over-year inflation. We’re not quite there. But it’s more Goldilocks-like than has been widely fathomed.
Recall how at the start of the year dire bearishness, with expectations of a recession, was in vogue. Since spring 2022, bears swore Fed hikes, with a list of other worries – Ukraine and Silicon Valley Bank among them – would kneecap GDP which they believed necessary to slow inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, meanwhile, has long warned that rate hikes meant “economic pain”– claiming “sticky” inflation required higher unemployment rates — and likely recession.

Yet inflation fell pretty steadily from June 2022’s 9.1% year-over-year high to 3.2% in July. And all that economic “pain”? GDP’s 2.5% growth exceeds virtually all expectations, job growth is steady, unemployment down, labor participation rate up. All good.


Stocks have languished this month after the S&P 500 closed in the red for August, its worst month since February.
Regular readers know I’ve pretty much been saying this all along: no recession, modest but increasing growth, inflation normalizing, strong stock market. Pretty Goldilocks-like. And quietly but indisputably, the stock market has been loving it – despite the bears’ continued huffing and puffing.

Now, however, the fact that our economy – if only briefly – has been once again dubbed “Goldilocks” ushers in a new psychological phase of this 11-month-old bull market. (Spoiler alert: it could get slightly bumpy for a bit, but hang on.)

Here is the problem: When humans are wrong for such a long period of time, they lack conviction after initially entertaining an updated set of ideas. It becomes easy to re-jolt them to disbelief and panic.

This is the Wall of Worry I described in my March 5 column on what I like to call the “Pessimism of Disbelief.” Behavioralists would say such folks seek to “shun regret”— to justify not having been actually wrong. So even a whiff of risk will bring back the prior negativity. Sentiment vacillates.

Mostly the negativity is hyperbole – multiple bouts of hand-wringing for every actual market break of short-term, downside volatility. This phase of any young bull market often has one or two short-term “breaks” per year – and they can slam stocks by as much as 10% to 20%. But it is also common for no big downside volatility.

The upshot? On the positive side, the fact that Goldilocks showed up at the house at all showed that people can envision a better future. But brace yourself for a few more ups and downs while Goldilocks gets chased around the cottage by the bears.



How will the story end? Rather than getting too wrapped up in it, I’d advise you to stay put and keep eating your own porridge."

MY COMMENT

I am fully bullish on the markets at the moment and for the rest of the year. I am still on track to lock in gains of +30% or more this year.

There you go....I have totally JINXED the markets. BUT....that is how I "feel".

 

SO.....was this story just ....BS?

China says it hasn’t banned iPhones or foreign devices for government staff

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/chi...phones-or-foreign-devices-for-government.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• The Chinese government has not instituted any formal guidance or regulation barring the use of iPhones, addressing media reports, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said.
• The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reported last week that staffers at key government agencies had been informally advised by supervisors in chat groups and meetings to not bring iPhones into the office or use them for work.
• The response from the Foreign Ministry spokesperson also noted unspecified “security incidents” linked to iPhones.

China has not instituted any laws or regulations prohibiting government employees from using or buying foreign phones, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wednesday, addressing media reports that said government staffers had been banned from using Apple iPhones.

“China has not issued any laws, regulations or policy documents prohibiting the purchase and use of mobile phones from foreign brands such as Apple,” a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said at a regularly scheduled briefing Wednesday in Beijing.

Apple shares dipped as much as 4% last week after The Wall Street Journal reported that staffers at central government agencies had been banned from using iPhones for work and even from bringing the smartphones into government offices, citing people familiar. Bloomberg reported that China planned to extend the ban to government-backed agencies and state-owned enterprises, citing people familiar.

The Journal reported that the instructions were given out verbally or in chat groups but that there was not formal guidance on the matter. The Foreign Ministry specifically denied the existence of any official policy barring foreign phone use but did not address the informal guidance reported by the Journal.

Apple shares were down less than 1% in early trading Wednesday, a day after the company announced the new iPhone 15.

The response from the Foreign Ministry spokesperson also noted unspecified “security incidents” linked to iPhones.

“We have indeed noticed recently that many media have exposed security incidents related to Apple mobile phones,” the spokesperson said. “The Chinese government attaches great importance to information and network security.”

MY COMMENT

Unfortunately it is impossible to know what you can trust in the media these days. Stories are floated based on rumor and unproven sources. There is a rush to get a story out regardless of the source or whether the information can vbe verified.

This is very unfortunate for investors and business. Just look at the 4% drop in APPLE after this story hit. AND....at this point we dont know if it was or is true or not.

It will be critical for investors to cut through the BS as we move into the future of investing. I suggest that the ONLY information that investors should use and can trust is.....EARNINGS reports that come directly from the company itself.

AND....if this sort of RUMOR MONGERING becomes rampant and the norm.....it has the potential to kill the markets and make investing impossible.

 

Here is the latest....."guess".....on the Social Security cost of living.....since I posted about Social Security yesterday.

Average Social Security retirement benefit may grow by some $57 per month 2024, new estimate finds

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/soc...tiree-benefits-may-increase-57-per-month.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• New government inflation data points to a 3.2% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in 2024.
• Here’s what Social Security beneficiaries need to know about that estimate.

New government inflation data points to a 3.2% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in 2024, according to a new estimate from The Senior Citizens League.

That would raise the average monthly retirement benefit by about $57.30, according to the nonpartisan senior group.

The Senior Citizens Leagues’ calculations are based on a current average retiree benefit of $1,790. That is lower than the $1,837 average monthly retirement benefit cited by the Social Security Administration, due to the fact that it includes spousal and other dependent benefits, in addition to those of workers, according to Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League.

The projected 3.2% Social Security COLA for 2024 is much lower than the official 8.7% increase beneficiaries saw in 2023. But it is higher than the annual 2.6% average increase over the past 20 years, according to Johnson.

Before you factor in the impact the estimated 3.2% boost may have on your benefits in 2024, there are three things to keep in mind.

1. Official 2024 COLA should be revealed in October

The Senior Citizens League’s 3.2% COLA estimate is based on consumer price index data through August.

An official COLA for 2024 is expected to be announced by the Social Security Administration in October.

That official calculation will be based on inflation data for July, August and September from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

The data from those three months will be added and averaged and then compared to the third quarter average from 2022. If there is an increase, that determines the size of the COLA.

“At this point, there’s always a chance of inflation doing something totally unexpected,” Johnson said, which may affect the official benefit adjustment for 2024.

There is a 61% chance the COLA for 2024 will be 3.2%, according to Johnson.

Meanwhile, there is a 9% chance of it going higher and a 30% chance it may be lower, she said.

2. Medicare Part B premiums affect increases

Medicare Part B premiums are typically deducted directly from Social Security checks.

Consequently, the size of those premiums affects how much of the COLA beneficiaries may see.

Medicare Part B premium rates also change each year. The Medicare trustees have projected the average monthly premium may be $174.80 in 2024, up from $164.90 in 2023.

The Senior Citizens League estimates the Alzheimer’s treatment, Leqembi, may add $5 per month to the average monthly Medicare Part B premium next year.

Medicare Part B premium rates for the following year are typically announced in November.

3. Think twice before starting benefits this year

If you’re on the brink of claiming Social Security retirement benefits, you may be tempted to claim this year to get the record 8.7% boost for 2023.

But experts say that is a misguided strategy.

“You don’t have to start now to get the benefit of a cost-of-living adjustment,” Bruce Tannahill, a director of estate and business planning at MassMutual, recently told CNBC.com.

“Social Security will adjust your projected benefits to reflect the cost-of-living adjustments that occur prior to the time that you retire,” he said.

Instead, it’s best to prioritize finding a claiming strategy that fits your circumstances and will maximize your monthly benefit income.

Even as the inflation rate has come down, current Social Security beneficiaries are still struggling with higher prices due to inflation, particularly when it comes to housing, food and medical costs, which make up about 80% of retiree spending, according to Johnson.

“Nobody’s out of the woods,” Johnson said. “Nobody’s getting rich from the 8.7% COLA.”"

MY COMMENT

This is actually very good news. This estimate is higher than previous estimates that were predicting a raise of 3%. If we get 3.2% or higher I will be very happy with that increase on top of the 8.7% from last year. That would be a total of about 12% in only two years. A big help for Seniors.

 

By the way.....the increase in inflation due to oil and gas prices.....who is really at fault? Well as usual your heroes in our government. Over the past few years they have once again put us at the mercy of various foreign countries.....a number of them brutal dictatorships and terrorists.......for our energy.

As usual over the past few years.....government policy is the primary cause of inflation. Of course....the FED.....happens to never mention any of this since they are basically a little arm of the government. The "little people" take the hit for the inflation and the FED policies that are put in place to fight it.......as usual.

 

The real story of the day.....the markets are UP. By a medium amount.....but Up is UP.

 

Having just looked......a have a nice gain going at this moment in time. Better than I expected before I looked. Only two stocks down....COST and AAPL.

The markets have firmed up some over the past hour......any attempt to fear monger the inflation data is not working. So PHOOEY on them.

Very happy with where I am right now in the day......but....LETS BUILD FROM HERE.

Poor AAPL. It is like they are being targeted with negativity lately. Same with MSFT and the other big cap tech stocks. Considering the dominance of these companies and the amount of money they rake in......it is ridiculous. These six or seven companies are the curx of the world economy.

 

An ok close for me today. I ended with a medium level GAIN. Six of eight stocks UP today. The two that were down were.....HD and AAPL. The disrespect of poor APPLE continues. BUT....that is ok....it is simply a matter of time till it goes away and the company is respected for what they are.

I also got a good beat on the SP500 today by 0.68%.

A good day for....core inflation day. The markets reacted reasonably and did not freak out.