Who cares about the DOW. Dow slips a second day after August’s slightly hotter core inflation reading https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/12/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Wednesday as traders absorbed a hotter-than-expected August core inflation print. The Dow lost 70.46 points, or 0.20%, to 34,575.53 for its second straight decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up 0.12% to 4,467.44. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.29% to end at 13,813.59. CNBC 3M was the biggest laggard in the 30-stock Dow, dropping more than 5.7%. Caterpillar shares were lower by 2%. Meanwhile, Apple shares declined more than 1%, falling for a second day. On the other hand, tech gains helped to lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Tesla shares gained 1.4% after billionaire investor Ron Baron stood by his bullish thesis on the electric vehicle maker. Amazon shares hit their highest level since August 2022; they advanced more than 2.5%. August’s core inflation print in the consumer price index increased 0.3% and 4.3% respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on the core number as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term. Meanwhile, the headline numbers rose 0.6% last month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%. “This report interrupts the run of good news [and] makes it more difficult to talk a happy game about inflation,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon. “It doesn’t matter for the upcoming FOMC meeting’s results. They’re not going to act. They have not signaled action. Market participants do not expect action. And that’s because they’ve shifted down the pace of tightening.” “If they act, it will be in November,” Reinhart added. Wall Street has mostly priced in a pause in rate hikes at the Fed’s meeting next week. Fed funds futures pricing data as of Wednesday afternoon indicate a 97% probability of rates remaining the same, according to the CME FedWatch Tool." MY COMMENT A good day for the markets and for FED watchers. It is PROBABLE that we are done with the FED till at least November. I would bet we are done with them for the rest of the year. Either way.....I dont care about the FED.....at all. The event that I am waiting for is third quarter earnings in October and November.
Here is the open today. Stocks open higher after retail sales, PPI data https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...i-data-stock-market-news-today-112051185.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Wall Street stocks popped at the open on Thursday, as investors weighed hotter-than-expected retail sales and wholesale price inflation data for a steer on what path the Federal Reserve will take on rates policy. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked up 0.4%, or about 150 points. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added around 0.6%, as British chipmaker Arm was set to make its stock-market debut. Despite much anticipation, markets were little moved Wednesday by an uptick in the August consumer inflation report. That wouldn't be enough to prompt the Fed to change course, economists said. Thursday's reading on retail sales for the same month came in stronger than for July, underscoring how the US consumer has remained resilient despite rising interest rates. Sales grew 0.6% on the month, compared with 0.1% expected, picking up steam as people shelled out more for gas. The producer price index increased 0.7% in August, up from 0.4% the previous month, data out Thursday showed — a sign that inflation remains stubbornly persistent despite the Fed's efforts to cool pressures. But at the same time, "core" wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, down from July's print of 2.4%. Eyes will be on Arm's debut on the Nasdaq on Thursday, after the Softbank-backed chip designer priced its blockbuster IPO at the top of the range at $51 per share, for a $54.5 billion valuation. Also in focus was the ongoing rally in oil prices, given their significant effect on inflation and on stocks. WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures were trading near 10-month highs on Thursday. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank hiked its interest rates for the 10th time in a row, to 4% — the highest level since the euro was launched in 1999. ECB policymakers also upped their inflation forecast, which they expect to remain too high for too long." MY COMMENT Good consumer news above. The economy is still chugging along....thanks to consumers. By the way.....do you remember the recession we were supposed to have this year. It seems to have been forgotten now. YES....it is not going to happen. Today and the rest of this week are normal news days. Nothing going on other than a normal market environment. That is a very good thing.....especially for long term investors.
Speaking of consumers....here is the data. Retail sales pick up steam as consumers shell out more for gas https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...nsumers-shell-out-more-for-gas-123621843.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "August retail sales were stronger than the prior month as consumers spent more on gas amid a surge in oil prices. Retail sales rose 0.6% in August from the previous month, aboveWall Street's estimates for 0.1% growth. Sales excluding auto and gas increased 0.2%, above estimates for a 0.1% decline compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, July's sales were revised down to a 0.5% uptick from a previously reported 0.7% increase. The August report, released by the Commerce Department, offers a snapshot of consumer spending at a time when economic data has been coming in largely stronger than expected despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign as the central bank seeks to cool inflation. Nine of the 13 categories highlighted in the release saw increases from a month ago. Sales at gasoline stations led all categories, shooting up 5.7% from July as the price for gasoline ticked higher throughout the month of August. The average price per a gallon of gasoline increased from $3.69 on June 26 to $3.93 on August 28, per the US Energy Information Adminstration. "The solid increase in headline retail sales in August was not as good as it appears because it was driven by a price-related surge in gasoline station sales while underlying goods and services spending lost momentum, and July's gain was revised lower," Oxford Economics lead US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note on Thursday morning. "Consumption growth is still on track for a strong gain in Q3 overall, but with job and wage growth slowing, student loan repayments restarting, and borrowing conditions still tightening, the headwinds to consumer spending are mounting." Nonstore retailers, which includes e-commerce, was unchanged from July after Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day and other online sales sparked outsize performance in the category in July. Meanwhile, sales in sporting goods and hobbies fell 1.6% from July, while miscellaneous stores retailers also dropped 1.3%. "Seeing some more signs of slowing in August, it now seems that the surge in spending in June and July was related to summer recreation and travel, and is unlikely to persist for much longer," Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. The August retail sales metric will be the final print before student loan repayments are expected to start weighing on consumer spending. Earlier this week, retailers at the Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference were uncertain of the overall economic impact but noted they'd be watching developments closely. "The student loan repayment is certainly one that we watch," Tractor Supply (TSCO) CFO Kurt Burton said at the conference. "We're aware of it. And anything that takes money out of the wallet, certainly is harder for the consumer and takes some of that spend away from the goods and services that they spend on. So I think it's one to be very conscious of."" MY COMMENT NO....I dont think the resumption of student loan payments will have any impact on the consumer data at all. This is just media spin.....more BS. My view is that the economy is being pumped by higher level consumers....people whose spending is NOT dependent on whether or not they have a student loan. I think it is pretty clear that we are now back to a normal economy. Finally.....post-pandemic it took us until about 4-6 months ago to get out of the pandemic impact on the economy.
The ARM IPO is one of the big sexy stories today. I see comparisons of them to NVDA and some asking will they be another NVDA. Personally I think most of this breathless coverage is simply HYPE for the IPO. If I was looking for another NVDA....I would simply buy NVDA. It is really a shame that the acquisition of ARM by NVDA was killed. Unfortunately we are seeing more and more government interference in corporate deals, mergers, and acquisitions. Arm IPO: What you need to know and how you can buy the stock https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/a...e9jIl16V9DJGrDKLtuacr-27x3Zw7UjMIX-s2vs3klnf4
I think this puts the ARM HYPE into a little more context. The Arm IPO is here, but many ETFs will not be buyers https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/the-arm-ipo-is-here-but-many-etfs-will-not-be-buyers.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "IPO and tech enthusiasts are excited about the Arm Holdings Plc initial pubic offering, and with good reason: it’s the first big tech IPO in more than two years. A lot is riding on its success. In this case, “success” for investors means demand is high and the price rises in the weeks and months after the IPO. Still, initially the deal will mostly be lacking one natural buyer: Exchange Traded Funds. Arm will be launching its IPO Thursday on the Nasdaq, selling 95.5 million shares at $51, the high end of the expected price range of $47-$51. Tech investors increasingly use ETFs to gain exposure to broad tech sectors, and subsectors, like semiconductors. However, some investors who would like to get immediate exposure to the Arm IPO through ETFs may be disappointed. ETF indexes have inclusion rules ETFs are generally a desirable target for corporations to sell stock to because the ownership base skews toward passive and long-term ownership. However, this particular IPO highlights several difficulties that even large companies like Arm have in acquiring a broader ownership base through ETFs. For the most part, ETFs are backed by indexes. These indexes have rules that must be carefully adhered to in order to qualify for inclusion. Unfortunately, partly due to Arm’s own decisions and partly due to the way the major indexes are constructed, ARM initially appears to be ineligible for the largest ETFs. Problem #1: Arm is not in the S&P 500 The largest index provider is S&P Global. To be included in broad technology ETFs like the SPDR Technology ETF (XLK), which tracks the S&P 500 Technology index, a stock must first be in the S&P 500, which Arm is not. The first problem is that Arm is not a U.S. company, it’s British — which generally would exclude it from the S&P indexes. “It is unlikely it would be included in the S&P 500 given its domicile is in the UK,” Matt Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors, told me. “That would exclude it from inclusion out of the gate.” State Street runs a large suite of ETF products that are tied to S&P indexes, including the largest ETF in the world, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY). Howard Silverblatt at S&P Global also noted that S&P requires a stock to have traded for one year and that the sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ GAAP should be positive, along with the most recent quarter. Next problem: a free float below 10% Many tech companies now routinely float very small amounts of stock (10%-15% of the shares outstanding), because restricting supply increases the chance for higher prices. But Arm appears to be particularly parsimonious, floating roughly 9.3% of the company, according to Renaissance Capital. That is another problem for many ETFs, which generally require that a company float 10% or more of the shares to be eligible for inclusion. That’s the case with the S&P indexes, Bartolini tells me, as well as the largest semiconductor ETF, the Van Eck Semiconductor ETF(SMH), which also requires a free float of 10% or more. Van Eck CEO Jan Van Eck told CNBC on Monday that his firm was still evaluating whether Arm would be eligible for inclusion in his ETF. Other index firms used by ETFs have float requirements as well. Todd Sohn, who covers ETFs at Strategas, tells me that Vanguard Total U.S. Market (VTI), which uses the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, also requires a 10% float for fast-track IPOs. There are ways to get the float above 10%. First, SoftBank could exercise the greenshoe, an optional over-allotment of stock which could add an additional 15% of shares, which would put them just over a 10% float. When would that happen? “In general, it’s not announced in connection with the pricing, though it can be,” Matt Kennedy from Renaissance Capital told me. “It can also be disclosed a couple days afterward when they announce the closing. Or, at the very latest, a month or so afterward in an 8-K or 10-Q filing.” Another way is simply to sell additional shares after the six-month lockup period expires. Potential ETF buyers: Nasdaq-100 ETF, IPO ETFs There are some potential ETF buyers. For example, Arm may be eligible to enter the Nasdaq-100, the top 100 non- financial stocks in the Nasdaq, because that index has no float or market capitalization requirements. The Nasdaq-100 is reconstituted every December. The Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) which uses the Nasdaq-100 index as its benchmark, is one of the largest ETFs in the U.S. Other ETFs that specialize in buying IPOs are potential Arm holders, but their buying power is relatively small. The Renaissance Capital IPO ETF(IPO), a basket of recent IPOs, requires a free float of only 5%, so Arm potentially is eligible for inclusion there. However, Nate Geraci of the ETF Store cautioned against trying to play IPOs in this manner. “I’m simply not a fan of investors attempting to play IPOs in the first place,” he told me. “One of the benefits of being an ETF investor is that you don’t have to worry about company-specific events such as this. Investors should obviously understand what’s going on underneath the hood of any ETF they own, but I would dissuade anyone from buying an ETF simply because it has an allocation to the latest hot IPO.”" MY COMMENT The market excitement is nice to see......but I suspect that much of the news on this IPO is simply media and other HYPE. I have zero interest in this stock or this company. I am not a gambler of new stocks as a long term investor. Before I will buy a company it needs to have a good record of being on the road to dominance and big cap status.
I see today as a pretty ......"pure".....market day. There are not many news items type factors that are impacting the markets today. In addition there seems to be little fear mongering going on in the media today. So....what we are seeing in the markets today is simply the markets doing what they want to do. AND....at this point the markets have a good bias to the upside. if we strip out all the BS and other "stuff" that impacts the markets.......we are in a bull market....with a good runway ahead of us for further gains through this year and into next year. However there is one BIG BLACK SWAN.....that is always in the back of my mind.......the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I put the odds of this event actually happening over the next five years as about 50/50. If it happens it will achieve two goals for China.......first, the recovery of Taiwan as part of communist China. Second.....probably a 12-24 month severe hit on the American economy and especially the stock markets. If or when China chooses to take Taiwan.........I believe the primary reason..........will be to hurt the American economy. My views is that they did the same thing successfully with COVID..
I have a good day going at mid-morning. All eight of my stocks are GREEN.....and.....a good medium level gain. In general the markets seem to have strengthened into the day with the SP500 and the NASDAQ....showing good strength compared to earlier in the day. I think both are at their high of the day right now. Keep working that phone bank....Emmett.
Amazon broke ranks on me today....it was in the RED at the close. All my other stocks were GREEN. It was a good day with a number of my companies gaining over 1% today. A good medium level gain for me. Although.....I did lag the SP500 by 0.10%.
No need to rub it in on house hunters......so click the link if you wish. Same situation we have been seeing all year for the mortgage and housing markets.....little supply for sale, high rates, and stable to rising prices. Mortgage rates stuck above 7% for over a month https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-stuck-above-7-for-over-a-month-180632247.html
A market driver tomorrow....perhaps. China’s retail sales surprise with faster growth, up 4.6% in August https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/15/chi...-on-retail-industrial-production-rrr-cut.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Retail sales grew by 4.6% in August from a year ago, beating expectations for 3% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. The increase was also faster than the 2.5% year-on-year pace in July. The National Bureau of Statistics last month stopped reporting the unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24. The slew of economic data came a day after China announced it was cutting the amount of cash that banks need to have on hand by 25 basis points, effective Friday. It was the second reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut this year since one in March. BEIJING — China’s retail sales and industrial production picked up pace in August with better-than-expected growth, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Friday. Retail sales grew by 4.6% in August from a year ago, beating expectations for 3% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. The increase was also faster than the 2.5% year-on-year pace in July. Industrial production grew by 4.5% in August from a year ago, better than the 3.9% forecast and faster than the 3.7% increase reported for July. Fixed asset investment, however, grew by 3.2% year-on-year in August on a year-to-date basis. That missed expectations for a 3.3% increase and was slower than the 3.4% pace reported as of July. The figure was dragged down by a steeper drop in real estate investment, and a slowdown in infrastructure investment. Only manufacturing saw the pace of investment pick up. Statistics bureau spokesperson Fu Linghui said the real estate market was still in a period of “adjustment” and noted declines in sales and investment. The urban unemployment rate for cities was little changed at 5.2%. The statistics bureau again did not report the jobless rate for young people. It said last month it will stop reporting the unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24. The bureau said it was reassessing its methodology, and would resume releases at an unspecified date. China’s economic rebound from the pandemic has slowed since the second quarter, dragged down by a real estate slump. Exports, another key driver of China’s economy, have also dropped as global demand for Chinese goods wanes. The statistics bureau release described August data as showing “marginal improvement.” “The national economy showed good momentum of recovery with high-quality development making solid progress and positive factors accumulated,” the statistics bureau release said. “However, we should be aware that many unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment still exist.” Within retail sales, online sales of physical goods rose by 7.6% in August from a year ago, according to CNBC calculations of official data accessed via Wind. Autos saw sales rise by 1.1%. Among the categories with faster growth were cosmetics, up by 9.7% and communication equipment, up by 8.5% in August from a year ago. Catering sales grew by 12.4% during that time. More rate cuts Late Thursday, the People’s Bank of China said that it was cutting the amount of cash that banks need to have on hand by 25 basis points, effective Friday. It was the second reserve requirement ratio cut this year since one in March. In the last several weeks, Beijing has announced a slew of measures to support the real estate market and consumption. Monetary policy has remained relatively loose compared with aggressive rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe. Also effective Friday is a reduction in the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions to 4%, from 6%. The planned cut was announced two weeks ago. The central bank has also trimmed other benchmark rates, such as the one-year loan prime rate. China’s slowing economic growth Moody’s on Thursday downgraded its outlook on China’s property sector to negative from stable. The firm expects sales to fall by around 5% over the next six to 12 months. “While the Chinese government has recently strengthened policy support for the property sector, we expect the impact on property sales to be short-lived and differentiated between tiers of cities,” Cedric Lai, vice president and senior analyst at Moody’s, said in a release. Uncertainty about future income has kept consumer spending relatively muted. China’s consumer price index rose by 0.1% year-on-year in August, reversing a decline in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by the same 0.8% year-on-year pace during both months." MY COMMENT First.....I cant remember an article like this in the past going into detail on China's economic data....just as though it was a report on American economic data. Are we now going to be subjected to reporting every little economic bit of data from China with quotes from some Chinese government stooge economic "expert"? Has our obsession with and dependence on china now gotten to this point? Second I find ALL this data HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS. A sudden turn around in China. Yeah right. And....the high unemployment for young people....well we are just not going to report that anymore......there was an issue with the methodology. It will be corrected and reporting resumed at some future unnamed date. Again....yeah right. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING trustworthy or believable in any of this Chinese data. BUT....no doubt....the markets will be FAWNING all over it tomorrow. If it leads to gains....ok...I will take them...but I dont believe a word of this "stuff".
China data is poor....stocks go down....China data is good....stocks go down. Stocks slump after strong China data, Arm rallies in day 2 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-day-2-stock-market-news-today-133238607.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks opened lower Friday as the major indexes failed early on to build on a Thursday rally. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slumped by 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC)lost 0.3%. The moves Friday came as China reported that its economy picked up steam last month, easing concerns about the world's second-largest economy. In the US, the United Auto Workers union officially launched a historic strike at select Big 3 automaker plants. All eyes continued to be on British chipmaker Arm (ARM), which debuted on public markets on Thursday with a near-25% rise. Arm stock was up 5% in the early going on Friday. The Wall Street benchmarks rallied on Thursday, after retail sales and wholesale price inflation for August came in hotter than expected. Those signs of resilience in the US consumer and of persistent price pressures make a case for more Fed rate hikes but also were signs that the Fed could be leading the US economy on the path to a soft landing. A recent oil price rally has spurred the rises in inflation, with a significant effect on stocks. On Friday, WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) futures took a slight break in the rally, dipping down from the 2023 highs hit on Thursday." MY COMMENT There you go.....the totality of the financial news today. I really doubt that anyone cares about China. It is probably really the Auto strike that is the financial news of the day. Bottom line....the short term markets are as CRAZY as I have ever seen them.
I like this little article. If They Tell You They Know What's Ahead, They're Lying https://www.realclearmarkets.com/ar...hey_know_whats_ahead_theyre_lying_979472.html (BOLD is my opinion OR hat I consider important content) "It’s that time of year. Fall. College football. Major League baseball playoffs. How bout those Orioles! One of my favorite events is my college fraternity, St. Anthony Hall’s fall pig roast. It’s always before a Virginia football game. Naturally, the boys in the “Hall” have the hottest dates on Grounds, and the absolute joy I feel at these events puts me in a top of the world mood for about 3 weeks. To see these nice, well-dressed and well-mannered kids having fun, drinking beer, eating pig and listening to the exact same music my crowd did makes one feel like there is hope for the future. Did I mention their hot dates? Short skirts and cowboy boots. Yes, fall is a wonderful time. Right after Labor Day, my phone rings more than it usually does as folks start thinking about their legal and financial affairs. My firm, Chartwell Capital Advisors represents wealthy families and their businesses. We take a holistic approach to all their needs as you can see in this VIDEO. We don’t have a magic bullet to make clients money or some sort of snazzy pitch about how our investment gurus can outperform the market. Our approach is one of general principles. We focus on topics that have little to do with new-fangled investment strategies. Ken Fisher’s recent Real Clear Markets article sums up our approach. Fisher cited Jesse Livermore’s famous quote: “The big money is not in the buying and selling, but the sitting.” Patience. If you’ve read my past articles, you may know that I look to history in understanding the present and the future. Here’s what history teaches us. All the pundits, especially the government experts are wrong about almost everything. Why should you get anxiety over predictions from people who are almost always wrong? If you are like me, you get dozens of market reports where some jacked up, cocaine sniffing Wall Street whippersnapper tells you what the market is going to do. News flash. He doesn’t know, he’s guessing, and he’s probably hawking a particular product he wants to sell you. Every pundit has an agenda, keep your cool and remember the lessons of history are important because human behavior is predicable. All kinds of economic and global events can sink markets. No one knows when they are going to happen. But here is what we do know, man is made to produce and to better himself. There is tremendous pressure within any stock company to make money. These entities are generally filled with smart people. What’s the point of working if you can’t make money and increase profits and value? Sit tight and it’s a better than average bet that a stock is going to grow in value while kicking out dividends. Humans act in predictable ways, they think, they labor, they produce and they adjust. We’d all be extinct if this was not true. Stock companies are made of humans. We live in a negative headline world, so I often get asked about “gold.” The big problem with gold is it is not a company made of humans, yearning to produce and make money. It just sits, same with Bitcoin. There may be some good reasons to own gold, such as if the Yankees start another war, burn down half the South and ruin the Confederate dollar. Gold is also a great backstop to make a currency stable. It might be great to own if a currency collapses. However, the way I look at it, if the currency collapses, the government collapses, and we are in a civil war. Guns are going to be a lot more valuable than gold, besides you can’t shoot a Yankee officer trying to burn your house and take all your stuff with a bar of gold. If economic apocalypse happens, the government is going to try and confiscate all you own anyway. Buy guns and ammo. Now, I’m going to preach. The surest way to be successful in wealth creation and in relationships is through discipline and good judgment. This doesn’t cost you a dime. The surest way to ruin your good judgment and self-discipline is by being a drunk. I used to not proselytize about drinking for fear of sounding holier than thou and judgmental. Now, I don’t care. I’ve seen great potential wither into nothingness and many ruined lives. You want to be rich and have great relationships, it won’t come about from having a great stock picker at your disposal. Quit drinking, it’s like a miracle drug. More productivity, better judgment, more time, clearer thinking and you don’t do dumb shit. No wealth advisor is going to tell you this, but Mr. Rob Is Right doesn’t mind pissing you off because he knows he is “right.” Along these lines, never make an outright bequest to a drunk in your estate plan. Put it in a trust with conditions. Here are a few other observations to keep in mind. The 60-year old guy who sells his business and makes a pile of money often thinks he has the Midas touch. Generally older, with other interests, a bit less energy, he starts making wild investments in going concerns and real estate. He then loses it all. I’ve seen this happen a million times, sometimes ending in jail or suicide. If you know this guy, especially if he is your father, divert his attention by introducing him to a buxom blond named Candy, but make sure he doesn’t marry her. Speaking of second wives, beware. Dad gets older and she has total emotional control of him. Dad becomes a big weenie and you dear children will not get any inheritance. Just this week, a second wife died and the old man had all his loot going to her side of the family instead of his own kids. No longer around to nag him, he was free of her control. We fixed it and now all his immense wealth will go to his children. As a general rule, the first generation makes the money. Grandad might be a little rough around the edges, but he worked his ass off. The second generation, witnessing Dad’s work ethic is a decent steward of the fortune that dad made, but they don’t have his drive or charisma. The third generation are entitled imbeciles. There are ways to keep them from squandering the family wealth. Your advisor needs to have the balls to speak up, and if he is a cheap son of a bitch like yours truly, nothing pains him more than to see money wasted. It's easy to run a family business into the ground. Let’s say dad started the business and Jr., your big brother is running it. You are an artist in Soho, but you own 33% of the company. Running a family-owned business is emotional. Emotion gets in the way of sound decision making. Jr. can’t make decisions he should make because he might have to fire employees, discontinue a product line, sell assets, etc. He’s in charge of preserving a legacy and doesn’t want to take action that he absolutely should because he is weighed down by the past. Every business needs independent judgment from folks that have no skin in the game. We often perform these duties. Who’s watching the hen house? Lawyers, trustees, family members, anyone entrusted with someone else’s money is subject to thinking that that money belongs to them. One of the most respected and well thought of guys I know took money from a client’s trust account. After they first dip their hands in the cookie jar, it becomes easier for them to do it again. There are things that can be done to prevent this from happening. I’m a lawyer, and I generally dislike the bastards. Conniving little weasels charging you for their time, not the value of the product delivered. With this disclaimer out of the way, one of the biggest financial returns you will ever receive in your life is to pay a “non-weasel” lawyer to construct an estate plan using advanced planning techniques that protect wealth from creditors, avoid taxes and provide for good stewardship of assets. A wealth advisor who doesn’t know you likely is not serving you well. When I meet with a client, I want to know all the juicy personal stuff. I often take what I’ve learned and draw up an estate and investment plan and then sit down with the client and tell him why I did what I did. There is no one way to do things. When I hear advisors talk in terms of absolutes, such as never rent, never buy annuities, never do this, never do that, they lose credibility with me. People are different, their personalities and capabilities are different, and they need to be treated in a way that understands them as individuals. Different strokes for different folks. Think Gary Coleman. Not all crooks are bad people. When people are under financial stress, they don’t think clearly. Men don’t want their wives and children to lose their status. Nice house, tony private schools, country club, etc. I am convinced if they were single with no children, they wouldn’t care if they lived in a tarpaper shack with a dirt floor. Sometimes these men do stupid things to keep the lifestyle up and they end up in jail. This happened to one of the finest gentlemen I know. The key to prevent this is not to live above one’s means." Debt. Oh boy. Leverage can make you a bunch of money, but it can also wipe you out. If you owe 1 penny on your million-dollar house and can’t pay, the bank can take your home. In advising people and businesses on no debt v. leverage, many factors go into the decision-making process, but the biggest is understanding the personality of the individuals involved. Some folks are Casper Milquetoasts, others are Mario Andrettis, it makes a difference how you advise them. Helping others is about understanding the foibles of human nature, and often protecting people from their worst habits." MY COMMENT This person is OBVIOUSLY in the financial business as an advisor. BUT....there is much truth in the little portions of this article that I have put in BOLD.
Another little article that I agree with. Will Stocks Slip on Higher Oil Prices? https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...mentary/will-stocks-slip-on-higher-oil-prices (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Do rising oil prices mean an autumn swoon for markets and the economy? Are oil prices headed back to triple digits? Some say so after two major producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, extended supply cuts last week. Rising crude and diesel prices feed into myriad popular fears today. But in our view, overlooked drivers imply prices will be range-bound—so the presumption the recent rise in crude means much higher levels ahead is likely a mistake. Oil prices have climbed throughout the summer, from $74.51 per barrel at June’s end to $90.44 a barrel on September 8, an increase of more than 21%. That has led to higher fuel costs, including for gasoline and diesel—and the latter has been getting eyeballs recently, with the national average rising from $2.48 a gallon at June’s end to $3.25 as of September 8.[ii] Now, with Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their voluntary production cuts of a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from June levels to the end of the year, worries have grown. Many wonder: Will black gold’s rise hurt consumption? Does more costly crude spell trouble for already flagging demand and economic activity in China? Will it reignite inflation? Is this a sign to buy Energy stocks, since their earnings are price-sensitive? But a review of recent history suggests the moves of Saudi Arabia, Russia and its partners in OPEC+ aren’t the gamechangers they used to be for oil markets. Last October, OPEC+ announced voluntary cuts to reduce production targets by 2 million bpd (from August 2022 levels)—to about 41.9 million bpd—starting in November and lasting through 2023.[iii] The cartel followed that with another “voluntary production adjustment” in April this year amounting to 1.66 million bpd.[iv] Despite all the speculation, we doubted OPEC+’s decisions would send oil prices soaring. OPEC+ members have struggled to meet their production quotas for myriad reasons, including disruptions (e.g., worker strikes in Nigeria) and underinvestment. Given most of the cartel’s members are already undershooting their production quotas, Saudi Arabia and Russia have seemingly taken it upon themselves to support oil prices with additional voluntary summertime production cuts.[v] These announcements seemed to spur some short-term volatility at times—as is often the case with OPEC+ news—but taking the longer view, the cartel’s lowering targets and production cuts haven’t sent prices back to early-2022 levels. Rather, Brent crude prices have remained range-bound. (Exhibit 1) Exhibit 1: Oil Prices Amid Select OPEC+ Announcements Source: FactSet, as of 9/11/2023. Crude Oil Brent Global Spot price, 6/30/2022 – 9/8/2023. OPEC+ cuts may receive a lot of attention on the supply front, but the effect is limited since non-OPEC+ producers can offset those reductions to a great extent. The world’s largest single-nation producer, America, is set to hit an output record of 12.8 million bpd this year.[vi] Canadian production has ramped up over the past couple years, and analysts estimate Canada will add almost 8% to its total output over the next two years.[vii] Brazil’s oil and gas production hit a record high in July, and its main oil producer has increased investment in exploration and production.[viii] This isn’t a one-for-one exchange, but roughly speaking, non-OPEC+ producers—who adhere to market forces rather than a cartel’s mandates—can step in and supply oil if prices make it worth their while. Meanwhile, despite fears of weakness from China, oil demand is showing few signs of abating—the IEA reported world demand hit a record in June and is set to register its highest annual level this year.[ix] Persistent demand amid resilient supply argue against prices zooming far higher or vastly lower from here (volatility notwithstanding). Note, too, the summertime uptick isn’t so worrisome when compared to even just last year—prices are far off last March’s high. (Exhibit 2) Exhibit 2: A Longer Look at Oil Prices Source: FactSet, as of 9/11/2023. Crude Oil Brent Global Spot price, 12/31/2007 – 9/8/2023. Higher oil prices can feed into any concern you want, but they don’t signal trouble for stocks or the economy more broadly. As the aforementioned Exhibit 2 shows, oil prices were in the triple digits for much of the early 2010s—a stretch when US GDP was expanding and the global bull market was just a few years into its decade-long run. Now, oil supply shocks can stir uncertainty—but that looks unlikely at this point, in our view. Even an upward drift in prices, which isn’t a given, isn’t a deterrent for this young bull market." MY COMMENT I also dont see this oil stuff as relevant lover longer than the very short term. I have seen this type of cartel action in oil happen many many times over my investing life. Any attempt to cut production typically.....always....ends in failure. In a short time others will step in and due to greed and need for money will increase their production. The high prices will guarantee this. This attempt to control and drive up oil prices through artificial means and cartel action will FAIL.....just like always.
Seems like we are seeing a very broad sell-off today. Makes me wish that I had some free money to invest It will be interesting to see how we do by the end of the day. I dont have much expectation for the markets today. I consider the recent short term market action as EXTREMELY irrational. Although......my definition if irrational may no longer apply. As we move into the dominance of the......"screen generations".....people that have lived on their phone and screens for their entire lives, are dominated by social media, and have extremely limited attention span......I believe we will see a HUGE decrease in rational thinking......especially in investor behavior. It will be the era of.....short term investment thinking. Of course if that is the societal norm....than that sort of behavior and thinking will represent....."NORMAL". It will be the people that are NOT operating that way that are ABNORMAL.
I say this tongue in cheek....but it is true. Looks like NVDA is in correction territory. Not too long ago it hit a high of about $500. As of right now it is at $443. So.....a drop of 11.4%. In the face of the last two quarters of HUGE earnings numbers....that is a pretty big drop. Do I think it means anything....no not really.
A nice FAT drop for me today to end the week. Every stocks down today in my account. PLUS.....a loss to the SP500 by 0.97%. Good thing I spent no time bothering to follow the market today after my last post this morning.
Actually if you let go of the psychological damage caused by the drop today......the week was just below FLAT. DOW year to date +4.44% DOW for the week +0.12% SP500 year to date +15.91% SP500 for the week (-0.16%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +39.20% NASDAQ 100 for the week (-0.52%) NASDAQ year to date +30.97% NASDAQ for the week (-0.39%) RUSSELL year to date +4.87% RUSSELL for the week (-0.24%) A week ago my entire account was at +34.34% year to date. Now as of today the entire account is at +33.13% year to date. A loss of 1.21%. I am STILL extremely happy with where I am year to date. I just have to hang on till year end when the data will be in the books and unchangeable.
It seemed a lot worse than it was this week. Here is the close today. Dow sheds nearly 300 points Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffer second straight week of losses https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/stock-futures-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks fell Friday as investors wrapped up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 288.87 points, or by 0.83%, to 34,618.24. At its lows, the index completely wiped out Thursday’s 332-point rally. The S&P 500 was lower by 1.22% to 4,450.32. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.56% to 13,708.33. The Dow closed out a positive week, up by 0.12%. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both suffered a second straight week of losses, lower by 0.16% and 0.39%, respectively. CNBC Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% a day after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower by 4.2% one day after its successful public debut. Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. rose Friday, while Ford inched lower. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night. Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 2.5%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines late Thursday. On the economic front, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020. Wall Street is parsing through a mixed batch of economic data ahead of the Fed’s policy decision, set to be announced Sept. 20. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady next week, but traders will seek insight into how policy makers are thinking about inflation from here. On Thursday, August’s producer price index showed core PPI was held in check last month, though the headline number rose more than expected. Meanwhile, August’s consumer price index on Wednesday showed core CPI was slightly hotter than expected on a monthly basis. “There was initial investor enthusiasm around inflation data coming in not too far out of expectations. On one hand, the inflation data was hotter than expected, but investors shrugged that off earlier this week thinking that the Fed would not be inclined to raise rates again next week, based on the August inflation data,” said AXS Investments’ Greg Bassuk. “But I think having digested the additional economic data that’s come out, as well as ongoing geopolitical pressures and other developments, we’re seeing today investors pulling back and taking a breather,” Bassuk added." MY COMMENT You cant tell me that the average person is selling into this market. It is traders driving the day to day action. No doubt....it is AI computer trading programs which tendd to trade the headlines. In any event we move on to another new week in a few days.....FED WEEK. Once we get the FED out of the way next week we are clear of them and their foolishness till November. Thank God.
