WELL....I ended with a nice but small gain today. My overlarge position in NVDA helped with that. I had four stocks in the green today.....NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, and AAPL. I also got in a nice beat on the SP500 today by 0.45%. Goodby and good riddance September.
Now for the weekly results. I believe I might have ended this week with a gain. I am not obsessive enough to bother to do the actual math. We had a MIXED week with some of the big averages negative and some of them positive. DOW year to date +1.09% DOW for the week (-1.34%) SP500 year to date +11.68% SP500 for the week (-0.74%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +34.58% NADAQ 100 for the week +0.12% NASDAQ year to date +26.30% NASDAQ for the week +0.06% RUSSELL year to date +1.35% RUSSELL for the week +0.48% As to my entire account.....last week I was at +28.55% for the year to date. This week at the Friday close I am now at 28.96% for my entire account year to date. A gain of 0.41% for the week.
The end of the month close today. Nasdaq rises, but stocks give up gains to close brutal month https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasd...-month-stock-market-news-today-200548277.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Stocks retreated Friday to cap a brutal month as Wall Street digested a fresh read on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge that could feed into interest rate expectations. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) reversed below the flatline Friday afternoon, finishing 0.3% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also lost grip of earlier gains to trade 0.5% lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) struggled to hold on to an advance, finishing up just 0.1% for the day. The moves Friday were part of sharp losses for the month and quarter as a brutal September came to a close. The major indexes saw drops of between 3% and 5% for the month, battered by surging oil prices and fears the Fed's higher-for-longer rates strategy means another hike this year. Firmly in focus Friday was the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. The August data showed that "core" PCE — which strips out food and energy — rose 3.9% on the year, the lowest in almost three years and down from 4.2% in July. A cooling might dampen expectations the Fed will hike in November. Bonds also saw some relief from those pressures on Friday, after comments from Fed officials helped soothe rate jitters. The yield on 10-year Treasuries (^TNX) fell after hitting levels not seen in over 15 years. But while the 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX) retreated, it's still on track for its biggest jump since 2009 — stoking anxiety about the impact of the bond rout. Also still weighing on minds is the looming US government shutdown, with its promise of significant harm to the economy and stock market. It's looking all but inevitable that lawmakers will miss the midnight Saturday deadline to avert it — especially given the lack of a clear sticking point that's seen it be called the "Seinfeld" shutdown. In individual stocks, shares of Nike (NKE) put on over 6% after the retailer reported first quarter profit that topped estimates and stressed its confidence in Chinese demand. This content is not available due to your privacy preferences.' MY COMMENT So we will start October with little to no real issues. NO.....I dont care at all about the auto strike or the government shut-down. Neither is a significant issue and neither will impact the economy. We got through the inflation data very nicely today.......with figures that will help to hopefully avoid any more rate hikes this year. The greatest threat to the markets over the rest of the year.........the constant and sensational FEAR MONGERING.
Ignore all the fear mongering that is building up on the government shut-down. It is simply a big JOKE. I have gone through many of these little events over the years....they all go the same way. The typical government shut-down will start with all kinds of political threats and hand wringing and dire predictions. Of course the instigators....the politicians on both sides.... will actually be using the shut-down drama to do fund raising for themselves. The actual shut-down phase will last anywhere from a few weeks to a month or two. AND....in reality very little will actually shut-down. Primarily it will be the regular people that will be punished by closure of various things like national parks. Of course......the politicians will continue to be paid and receive all their benefits and perks during the so-called shutdown. After a few weeks to a month or two the pressure in the media will build up to the point that the politicians are ready to move on........and...... will put forward and fill up a massive spending bill with every goodie in the world. The bill will be a monster political Christmas tree with every shinny ornament you can imagine in the form of special treats.....MONEY.....being handed out like candy. The bill will pass on a simple vote......as a single bill boondoggle. Afterwards all the participants on both sides will claim victory.......as they all posture for the next spending bill which will no doubt come up somewhere between 2-8 months down the road and the whole process will start over. The exercise will basically be a budget busting rape of the country.......by politicians holding the country hostage for a big payoff . SO NO......as an investor....I dont care about the PHONY government shut-down
I guess we will have to table the government shut-down stories for a few weeks. A last-second deal is set to avert a government shutdown as the business world celebrates https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-la...-the-business-world-celebrates-010422579.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "In a surprise turnabout following several days when a shutdown seemed all but inevitable, Congress acted swiftly Saturday to avert a government funding gap and push Washington’s spending fights until later this fall. After one last delay Saturday evening over funding for Ukraine, the final vote came in the Senate with 3 hours to go before a midnight deadline. The overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 88-9 sends the measure to President Biden’s desk for his signature. "I have very good news for the country," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, "The government will remain open." Business leaders have been worried about the economic damage that could follow a protracted shutdown, with some quickly celebrating the news. Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten issued a statement Saturday quickly after the final vote saying "we thank Members of Congress for working together to prevent a shutdown and encourage the House and Senate to pass a long-term spending measure as soon as possible.” The breakthrough came Saturday morning when House Speaker Kevin McCarthy abruptly changed course and offered a bill with bipartisan appeal Saturday afternoon. The 71-page measure passed the House by an overwhelming 335-91 vote with 90 Republicans and 1 Democrat voting no. “I tried every possible way” to negotiate with far-right Republicans, McCarthy said during a press conference Saturday adding that in the end “I wanted to be part of a conservative group that gets things done.” President Biden praised the bill soon after final passage was assured and is expected to sign it as soon as possible, meaning the bill is all but certain to be enacted before any economic costs from a shutdown would begin to mount starting Monday morning. "It’s a relief and good news that we will not have a government shutdown; it shouldn’t have been this complicated," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, in a statement. "The challenge now is to ensure that we don’t do this all over again in six weeks," she added. Margaret Spellings, the president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center, added in her own statement that "yet another budget crisis that would have inflicted pain and uncertainty on American households and the economy has been averted with bipartisan passage of a short-term funding deal." The last second bill also appears set to avert a potential double whammy for the aviation industry. It will stop both a shutdown – which could have led to longer security lines by forcing TSA agents to work without pay – as well as avoiding a lapse in authorization for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that was also looming this weekend. The last-minute bill includes text to delay a shutdown and also temporarily re-authorizes the FAA for even longer, through the end of the year, to allow lawmakers more time to work on both issues. The leaders of the House Transportation Committee - Reps. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) issued a statement saying the deal was "vital to ensuring the safe and efficient operation of America’s aviation system" but underlining that a long term authorization for the FAA would also be needed. The bill doesn’t include any additional money for Ukraine — an important sticking point in recent weeks for House Republicans —but does include $16 billion for disaster relief efforts. FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund had already been running low and was set to be disrupted further in places like Florida (following a recent hurricane) and Maui (following wildfires) by the shutdown. "Senate Republicans remain committed to helping our friends on the front lines," House Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Saturday evening, adding “I am confident the Senate will pass further urgent assistance to Ukraine later this year." McCarthy also dropped efforts to cut government spending for now— with Saturday's measure continuing funding at current levels —as well as GOP efforts to enact border provisions as part of any deal. But even as economic observers breathed a sigh of relief that one threat to the economy is now off the table, early signs are that the spending battles are all but certain to rear up again near Thanksgiving when a government shutdown may again become a threat on November 17. Between now and then, McCarthy also appears likely to face a challenge to his speakership from at least some of the Republicans who voted against his last-second move to bipartisanship. One of the no votes on the bill was Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) who accused McCarthy of caving to Democrats, adding "Should he remain Speaker of the House?" "Are we sure Hakeem Jeffries is not the speaker?" added another GOP no vote, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R.-Mont.) in reference to the Democratic leader. "If somebody wants to remove [me] because I want to be the adult in the room, go ahead and try," McCarthy shot back." MY COMMENT So this takes the government funding issue off the backs of the markets till mid November. We are seeing the primary DOOM AND GLOOM issues suddenly fade away one by one. We got past the inflation readings this week......and now.....we have kicked the government shut-down issue down the road. Even if people dont want to admit it.....we are also basically done with the FED and rate hikes. It will be interesting to see what the negative issues will be next week. Just wait.....soon we will start to see the typical FEAR MONGERING of the upcoming earnings and how they could fail to meet expectations. I am sure we will also see some good old fashioned doom and gloom around the issue of the consumer petering out. At this point all these tired old issues are simply.....high maintenance drama....put out there by people looking for clicks.
I was looking at one of the portfolios that I manage this morning. It holds all the same stocks and funds as my two accounts. I noticed that COSTCO is the most expensive stock in the portfolio. It has now been over 20 years since a stock split for Costco. Their last split was in year 2000.....twenty three years ago. Looks like to me they are way past due for a split. With the share price at $546.....very close to an ALL TIME HIGH.....the high was around $600 on April 8 of 2022.....we are at exactly the time that you would expect them to be considering a stock split. The company has a habit some times of making year end special distributions and it would be nice if this year they decided to announce a split. It is time to reward investors and long term holders of the stock with a split and additional shares. Sure....this is supposedly a neutral event....but I believe that it would be a very positive signal for the company right now and would lead to increased price and attention for the stock and company. A split would also make the stock more attractive to buyers and smaller investors. I would like to see a nice 3 for 1 split. UNFORTUNATELY.....I dont have any say over it. They are also due this year for a SPECIAL DIVIDEND. The last one that was about $10 per share was in December of 2020. Here is their record of recent special dividends: December 2020......$10 May 2017......$7 February 2015......$5 December 2012......$7 A split combined with a membership fee increase......which is a little past due right now........and a year end special dividend....would be a very nice Christmas present to investors.
I like this little article. Note to Fed Watchers: It Doesn’t Target the ‘Preferred’ Gauge https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...watchers-it-doesnt-target-the-preferred-gauge (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Sorry, folks, the Fed doesn’t target “core” inflation. Disclosure: What follows is a rant on a subject most never notice. One that grows more irritating (to me) with almost each and every passing Fed meeting. “Preferred” and “target” aren’t synonyms. Perhaps that is obvious. It should be. Yet it seems many Fed watchers presume the central bank “targets” 2% y/y inflation as measured by its supposedly “preferred” core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and fuel. But it doesn’t. It targets the headline PCE, including those categories. Investors—and frankly, the Fed watchers who question policymakers—would do well to understand this distinction. All too often, it seems they don’t. Pundits have long presumed core PCE to be the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge. So when the Fed started targeting inflation last decade, many conflated their perception of “preferred” with the Fed’s target. So much so, actually, that pundits and reporters commonly say the Fed targets core PCE. Reporters in July stated that, “The Fed uses the core PCE index as the benchmark for its 2% inflation target.” Papers from select economic think tanks arguing the 2% target is too low base their discussions and visuals on core prices.[ii] Entire columns in venerable financial publications hinge on core PCE as the measure for whether the Fed is nearing its target. These aren’t isolated examples—scores of pundits write op-eds galore on the same presumption. Look, I have no idea what the Fed or various officials actually prefer. Maybe some do prefer core PCE. Perhaps others prefer that Thanksgiving Dinner index the American Farm Bureau publishes annually in November. Maybe some of them really like a weird price index no one in the public has ever seen. But whatever they prefer, it is plain to see what the Fed targets, and it isn’t core PCE. When the Fed formally established its 2% y/y inflation target in 2012, it said, “The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate.”[iii] (Boldface mine.) That is headline, not core. Sound vague or squishy? Consider: Two weeks after establishing that formal target, St. Louis Fed President and FOMC member James Bullard gave a speech and stated, “In a targeting context, inflation means headline inflation. It does not make sense to ignore some inconveniently volatile prices, like those for gas or food, when discussing the inflation rate actually faced by U.S. households.”[iv] The Cleveland Fed’s Q&A page on inflation states, “The Federal Reserve sees a rate of inflation of 2 percent per year—as measured by a particular price index, called the price index for personal consumption expenditures—as the right amount of inflation.” The San Francisco and New York branches echo this. And, in case you wondered whether they changed the target after first establishing it 11-plus years ago, Bullard wrote a paper prior to leaving the Fed this year that included the following footnote: “The FOMC’s 2% target is based on the headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.”[v] This isn’t one of those cases where fedspeak—notoriously impenetrable language designed to give policymakers wiggle room—applies. It is clear. But at the Q&A following last week’s decision to keep rates on hold, a reporter asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell whether oil prices’ uptick would enter into Fed decision making going forward. Here is his response: Right. So, you know, energy prices are very important for the consumer. This can affect consumer spending. It certainly can affect consumer sentiment. I mean, gas prices are one of the big things that affects consumer sentiment. It really comes down to how persistent, how sustained these energy prices are. The reason why we look at core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is that energy goes up and down like that. And energy prices mostly don’t contain much of a signal about how tight the economy is, and hence don’t tell you much about where inflation is really going. However, we’re well aware, though, that, you know, if energy prices increase and stay high, that will have an effect on spending. And it may have an effect on consumer expectations of inflation, things like that. That’s just things we have to monitor. After an interjected follow-up question, Powell continued: So to finish my prior thought, I was saying that’s why we tend to look through energy moves that we can see as short-term volatility.[vi] These statements are fair and fine at face value, but they make sense only if you presume the Fed targets core prices. There was no follow-up on this. No one pressed Powell on why the Fed would target a headline rate but claim it must look past oil’s volatile wiggles. This is a logical disconnect we would all do well to hear Powell spin his way out of.[vii] Alas, we don’t seem likely to get that. The conflation of “preferred” and “target” is too global. We have long argued Fed words—and deeds—matter a whole lot less than many think and that their actions aren’t forecastable. That stands now. But many pundits and Fed watchers still try. With that in mind, doesn’t it seem ironic so many fail to account for which gauge underpins the policy instrument central to the current inflation and policy debate? At its peak last year, the divide between headline and core PCE was two full percentage points.[viii] In light of a Fed that wrongly thinks it can fine-tune inflation down to a fraction of a percentage point, this seems like a substantial omission Fed watchers may want to rectify." MY COMMENT I totally agree that their words and deeds matter a lot less than people think and can never be forecast. I a I also agree that there is ZERO ability on the part of the FED to control or fine tune anything. It is just a JOKE. they are not siting in some FED laboratory with all sorts of levers and devices and fine tuning the economy with a little tweak here and a little adjustment there. They are beating the economy over the head with a baseball bat. In addition the obvious moves by the FED that are intended to gut the stock markets.....are simply irrational and insane. Thank goodness they are basically done now......we actually escaped them and their egotistic stupidity.....with little damage.
Markets have been open for a while now. Earlier the SP500 and NASDAQ were both positive. Now the SP500 is flat and the NASDAQ is showing some good gains. This open seems fairly typical with what we have been seeing lately. Stocks open mixed amid shutdown reprieve, EV delivery data https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...y-data-stock-market-news-today-112306830.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks opened mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq alone starting the new quarter in the green after US lawmakers averted a government shutdown and as auto deliveries data rolled in. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped about 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was up about 0.5%, as Goldman Sachs strategists said valuations in the sector were historically cheap. In a surprise turnabout, Congress on Saturday sealed a last-second deal to sidestep a shutdown that had seemed all but inevitable. That brought some relief to investors concerned by the threat of significant harm to the economy and stock market. But as the agreement brought just a temporary extension to the budgetary wrangling, the relief could be just as short-lived. The major gauges still face other headwinds that helped drag stocks to sharp losses for the quarter and month on Friday, with the Federal Reserve's message that rates will stay higher-for-longer ringing in investors' ears. Oil prices and Treasury yields (^TNX) are still rising, and piling on pressure. But the US funding deal could fuel expectations that the Fed will hike rates in November, some traders believe. Food for thought on that could come when the central bank's chair, Jerome Powell, takes part in a roundtable discussion with Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker later Monday. Still hanging over markets is the United Auto Workers strike, which was extended to more Ford and GM plants on Friday. A deal between the UAW and Mack Trucks in their dispute on Sunday could provide reason for optimism. Auto companies report deliveries for the third quarter this week, which should help the market gauge the impact of the strike action. Shares in Tesla (TSLA) fell around 3% after the EV maker undershot analysts' estimates for deliveries, while rival Rivian's (RIVN) stock shed almost 2% as its figures beat expectations. Elsewhere, the World Bank slashed its outlook for China's growth in 2024, even as it kept its forecast for 2023 unchanged, sparking worries about demand in the world's second-biggest economy. The bank pointed to its failure to fully recover from the pandemic impact and the ongoing debt crisis in its property sector. Meanwhile, investors are counting down to the week's data highlight, the September US jobs report on Friday. Updates on US manufacturing from ISM and S&P Global are on Monday's docket." MY COMMENT I dont know about you....but....I dont see anything above that is meaningful for any long term investor. Just the day to day....normal. At this point we are just kind of treading water while we wait for earnings. I notice that the financial media is strangely silent when it comes to the soon to be reported earnings. So far I see nothing being said. Perhaps they have finally learned their lesson about being wrong......and....looking like fools over earnings.
I like this little article and its OBVIOUS application to investing and investors. Your Brain Looks for ‘Winning Streaks’ Everywhere—Here's Why This is why we misinterpret life’s weird and wonderful random events https://www.scientificamerican.com/...oks-for-winning-streaks-everywhere-heres-why/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Basketball players, coaches, and fans agree: a person is more likely to make a shot after they’ve successfully completed one or multiple consecutive shots than after they’ve had a miss. Players therefore know to “feed” the teammate who’s “hot.” Coaches know to bench the one who’s not. This understanding is dittoed for the batter who’s on a hitting streak, the poker player who’s drawing strong hands and the stock picker who has a run of soaring successes. In life, as in sports, it pays to go with the hot hand. But as psychologists Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky revealed in a seminal 1985 report, the basketball hot hand is one of those universally shared beliefs that, alas, just isn’t so. When they studied detailed individual shooting records from the National Basketball Association (NBA) and university teams, the hot hand was nowhere to be found. Players were as likely to score after a miss as after a make. When told Gilovich’s team’s cold facts about the hot hand in a July 27 interview, Stephen “Steph” Curry, an all-time NBA three-point shooter, looked incredulous. “They don’t know what they’re talking about at all,” he replied. “It’s literally a tangible, physical sensation of "all I need to do is get this ball off my fingertips, and it’s gonna go in....” There are times you catch the ball, and you’ve maybe made one or two in a row—and ... the rim feels like the ocean. And it’s one of the most rewarding feelings.” Sports fans concur with Curry. In an article published on the same day, sports writer Jack Winter counseled, “Don’t be fooled by numbers-driven naysayers. The next time you’re feeling it at your local pickup game, don’t hesitate to indulge the temptation for even the most brazen of heat checks. Why? Stephen Curry, the truest expert on the matter, knows the hot hand is real.” The scientific story did not, however, end in 1985 with Gilovich and his colleagues. Their analyses stimulated a host of follow-up studies of streaks in free-throw shooting, as well as in baseball, golf and tennis. Occasional examples of a slight hot hand have appeared, as in NBA three-point shooting contests—but nothing like the 25 percent increase in shots made following a make that was estimated by Philadelphia 76er players surveyed in Gilovich’s team’s study. In a January 2022 study, operations researcher Wayne Winston of Indiana University Bloomington and computer scientist Konstantinos Pelechrinis of the University of Pittsburgh analyzed some 400,000 shot sequences across all NBA players over the 2013 –2014 and 2014–2015 seasons. Their results showed the slight opposite of a hot hand: after making one or two field goals, the average player became slightly less likely to make the next shot. (This replicated an earlier study that analyzed 12 NBA seasons between 2004 and 2016: 45 percent of field goal attempts were successful after a make, and 46 percent were successful after a miss.) Nevertheless, some players analyzed in Winston and Pelechrinis’s January 2022 study were, to a varying extent, more likely to make a shot after making one or more. So I wondered, “Was Curry among them?” In their data, Curry “did not exhibit the hot hand phenomenon,” Pelechrinis wrote in an e-mail to me. The computer scientist elaborated further: “After a single make his FG% [field goal percentage] was almost identical to the one expected based on the shot quality.” “After two consecutive makes his FG% was slightly below expected (2.5 percentage units).” “After three consecutive makes his FG% was 7.5 percentage units below expectation.” I can hear you protesting, “Are Gilovich and the stats geeks denying the reality of amazing hot and cold streaks in sports and in other life realms?” Actually, they are saying quite the opposite: Streaks do occur. Indeed, random data are streakier than folks suppose. And when streaks happen, our pattern-seeking mind finds and seeks to explain them. Given enough data—from sports statistics, stock market fluctuations or death rates—some really weird clusters are sure to appear. Buried in the essentially random digits of pi, you can find your eight-digit birthdate. (Is that a wink from God or just a lot of digits?) To demonstrate the streaks in random data, I flipped a coin 51 times, with these results (“H” and “T” represent heads and tails.): HTTTHHHTTTTHHTTHTTHHTTHTTTHTHTTTTTTHTTHTHHHHTHHTTTT Looking over the sequence, patterns jump out. For example, on the 30th to 38th tosses, set in boldface above, I had a “cold hand,” with only one head in nine tosses. But then my fortunes reversed with a “hot hand”: six heads out of seven tosses. Did I mentally snap out of my tails funk and get in a heads groove? No, these are the sorts of streaks found in any random sequence. When I compared each toss outcome with the next, 24 of the 50 comparisons yielded a changed result—just the sort of nearly 50 percent alternation we would expect from coin tossing. Can you see a similar hot hand in one of the basketball shot sequences shown below? Both show a player making 11 successful shots out of 21 attempts. Which one has outcomes that approximate a random sequence? Credit: Amanda Montañez Player B’s outcomes look more random to most people. (Do they look that way to you, too?) But Player B has fewer streaks than expected. For a 50 percent shooter, chance shooting, like chance coin tossing, should produce a changed outcome about half the time. But Player B’s outcome changes in successive shots 70 percent of the time (that is, in 14 out of 20 shots). Player A, despite a six-of-seven hot streak followed by a one-of-six cold streak, scores in a pattern that is more like what we would expect from a 50 percent shooter: Player A’s next outcome changes 10 times out of 20 shots. So, like his fans, coaches and commentators, Curry is rightto perceive hot and cold streaks. Basketball shooting, like so much of life, is streaky. We just misinterpret the inevitable streaks. After the fact, we describe the “hot” player as “in a zone.” The phenomenon is ubiquitous. Maternity ward staff notice streaks of births of boys or girls—such as when 12 consecutive female babies were born in one New York State hospital in 1997—and sometimes these events are attributed to the phases of the moon during conception or to other mysterious forces. Cancer or leukemia cases may cluster in neighborhoods, sometimes provoking a fruitless search for a toxin. My then 93-year-old father once called me from his Seattle retirement home, where about 25 people died each year. He wondered about a curious phenomenon. “The deaths seem to come in bunches,” he said. “Why is that? A contagion?” How odd that folks should pass en masse! The streaks are real; the invented explanations are not. Nevertheless, forced to choose between data science and personal observation, between the statistics and their lying eyes, players and fans prefer the latter, so the hot hand hype lives on. After hearing the late CBS basketball commentator Billy Packer admonish college coaches to recognize the hot hand phenomenon, a friend of mine sent him my textbook summary of Gilovich’s team’s facts of life. Packer replied: “There is and should be a pattern of who shoots, when he shoots, and how often he shoots, and that can and should vary by game-to-game situations. Please tell the stat man to get a life.” I smiled. So did my colleague Thomas Gilovich when I shared Steph Curry’s response to his work:.“Steph is one of my favorite players (how unusual is that!),” Gilovich wrote, “so to hear him say that we don’t know what we’re talking about is precious.” Moreover, we can understand the science of serendipitous streaks and still marvel at the fact that Curry made 105 consecutive three-point practice shots. We can realize the realities of randomness and yet find pleasure in life’s weird streaks and coincidences. As countless things happen, we can savor the happenstances—such as three of the first five U.S. presidents dying on July 4 or someone winning the lottery twice or discovering a mutual friend on meeting a stranger overseas. In 2007 the late psychologist Albert Bandura recalled a book editor who came to Bandura’s lecture on the “Psychology of Chance Encounters and Life Paths" and ended up marrying the woman he happened to sit next to. As statisticians Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller observed in a 1989 paper, “With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen.” And what fun when it does!" MY COMMENT The human brain is an amazing thing. Unfortunately it has infinite capacity to fools us and drive our behaviors in crazy directions for crazy reasons. This is why doing the simple and obvious thing for most investors is extremely difficult. We are constantly misunderstanding why and how things are happening.
This is a major story line today......especially for owners of TSLA. Tesla misses estimates for quarterly deliveries; stock falls https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-fall-third-quarter-130646732.html
No doubt the greatest drag on the markets right now is the Ten Year yield. It is now at 4.675%. Of course no one questions the common belief that the BIG CAP tech stocks are interest rate sensitive. It is just taken as absolute proof. This is similar to the information in the article above dealing with brain behavior. No one ever questions this sort of market wisdom that I can ever see. It is just accepted fact. Now in my mind......I say.....why? Personally I dont see any reason why these companies should be interest rate sensitive in the slightest. I have also....never....seen any explanation for this little bit of supposed knowledge. I agree that there does.......often....seem to be a connection. BUT....I see that as a simple self fulfilling prophesy on the part of short term traders. I am happy to see that lately....this little "market truth".....has seemed to not be working. My view it is simply a myth.
This post is being made at WHISPER volume. Dont tell anyone but....NVDA....seems to be in a little rally for the past 3-4 market days. I see nothing.....I see nothing.....I will simply whistle as I walk past the cemetery.
I see that today the market BIG CAP TECH whipping boys.....MSFT and AAPL....are NOT being punished and disrespected. I have no idea why these companies have been targeted lately. Both companies are far and away leaders in their business areas. Both of these companies have exceptional management. Both of these companies are world wide dominant. BUT....take heart.....it will all even out and in the end QUALITY will always win out.
At this moment my portfolio is on fire today. I have a nice BIG gain going on right now with only one down stock....HON. NVDA is up more than 3%.....GOOGL and AMZN are both up more than 2%......and....AAPL and MSFT are both up by more than 1%. I have seen this sort of market strength in the morning.....dissipate some in the afternoon lately. LETS BREAK THAT TREND TODAY. A very good start to the week, the month, and the new quarter.......but......a very selective start. How investors are doing today.....on a personal level.....is very much dependent on what you own. It is a selective rally today. BUT...you have to start somewhere and broaden it out from there as momentum builds.
It is a hot time of the year for me and art auctions. I have four art auctions between now and the end of the year that I follow. I dont expect to be doing any buying since I have exhausted my art "budget" for this year. BUT....I will follow all these auctions and attend a preview of two of them.....to keep my knowledge level and my awareness of the market trends up. As has been the case for some time now.....the areas that we collect......Western Art....Historic American Impressionism....etc, etc......continue to be red hot in the big auctions. I dont collect sports cards/memorabilia or comics.....but I follow them and they also continue to be red hot. Illustration art is also on a tear. We have been collecting for over 50 years now. It is somewhat difficult to draw conclusions as to what some of our art and items are worth since they have been off the market for 20-30 or more years. BUT....from what I am seeing in the market.....we definately have a good gain in the value of our entire collection. That is where it is at for me......we collect out of interest and love for what we buy....but....at the same time it is nice to have a gain in value. We have seen over many years that by buying quality items of art and furnishings.....it is possible to outfit your home and at the same time....NOT have the items depreciate. Being a money person and also an art, antique, and collectable lover.....gives me the opportunity to furnish our home and not have everything immediately go down to zero value....as would happen if we were buying regular furniture and regular decor items.
I was afraid the day would FADE OUT on me this afternoon. But......it went the other way and I ended up with a nice fat gain. I had two stocks down today.....the "H" stocks.....HD and HON. BUT....my others all kicked ass today. It was a good day to have a double position in NVDA. With my oversize position in NVDA it is like having 2x leverage in that position. Here is how the winners did today: NVDA +2.95% GOOGL +2.53% MSFT +1.92% AMZN +1.84% AAPL +1.48% COST +1.12% So I ended the day with a big beat on the SP500 by 1.66%.
Not a really meaningful drop for the average house hunter....but at least it is something after many weeks of bad news regarding mortgage rates. Mortgage Rates Plunge for Biggest One-Day Drop in 6 Months Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends - Oct. 2, 2023 https://www.investopedia.com/mortga...te-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral
The close today. A very position dependent day for investors. Dow slides to begin October even as Congress staves off government shutdown https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower Monday even after U.S. legislators were able to come to a short-term agreement that staved off a government shutdown. The 30-stock Dow declined 74.15 points, or 0.22%, to 33,433.35. The S&P 500 inched higher by 0.01% to close at 4,288.39. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.67% to close at 13,307.77 and notch its fourth consecutive positive day. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 fell 1.6% on Monday, pulling it down 0.3% year to date. This marked the first time the index turned negative in 2023, underscoring trouble among small-cap names. The Russell 2000 is often thought of as a better insight into the health of the broader economy due to its focus on smaller businesses. CNBC The market action took place amid a backdrop of rising bond yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 4.7% at its session high, marking its highest level since October 2007. Discover was the S&P 500′s top gainer Monday, with shares up nearly 5%. Medical device manufacturer Insulet added 3.5%, while chipmaker Nvidia rose nearly 3%. Technology, communications services and consumer discretionary were the only positive sectors in the broad market index. Communication services added 1.5%, while the tech sector traded 1.3% higher. Consumer discretionary gained 0.3%. The Senate passed a continuing resolution with just hours to spare before a midnight deadline Saturday, which was then signed by President Joe Biden into law. The bill keeps the government open through mid-November, an extended period that lawmakers can use to finalize funding legislation. Historically, the market “has not cared” about government shutdowns, according to Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon. He noted that the average performance for the S&P 500 from the start to the end of a shutdown has been “basically flat” in the past. “I think the conditions that we’re in and that surround us are much more important. So, as we head into the year-end, if [we] don’t see an improvement in key areas of the economy, like housing and manufacturing, if [we] start to see more cracks on labor — I think that would that would definitely take on more importance than just the shutdown itself,” said Gordon." MY COMMENT Today was a good day for owners or quality....big cap....names, especially tech. For other market segments....not so much. Funny.....I rarely hear anyone talking about owning International Stocks anymore or emerging markets. I dont own them and will not own them. I prefer to own my BIG CAP world wide monster companies....as my little bit of International investing. Right now....the markets seem to be afraid of their own shadow. One or two issues fade away and.....BOOM.....the markets start to obsess over something else. Much of this is simply irrational. OR.....perhaps it reflects the change over to a younger age group in the markets and investing. In the end it all boils down to......NO GUTS, NO GLORY.
