To continue with the private data....which I believe is way more accurate than the government data. Wage growth keeps slowing for job switchers as US labor market cools off https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wage...s-as-us-labor-market-cools-off-150954904.html (BOLD is my opinion ORR what I consider important content) "Leaving your job for that shiny new opportunity doesn't pay like it used to. New data out Wednesday from ADP shows median year-over-year pay increases for job switchers fell to 9% in September, the slowest rate of growth since June 2021. At their peak, workers saw roughly 16% year-over-year pay increases on average, more than double that of those who stayed at their job. But Wednesday's data showed the difference between wage growth gained by leaving a job versus staying is it at its slimmest margin since October 2020. "We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a press release. "Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months." The ADP National Employment Report report showed 89,000 private payroll jobs were added to the US economy in September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected job additions of 150,000 for the month. The report comes amid a busy week for labor market news that kicked off in earnest with the latest Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, which revealed job openings unexpectedly picked up in August. The surprise headline of the report sent stocks lower as investors feared a strong economy may mean more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. But in the fine print, there were signs of the economy cooling. After years of aggressive hiring in a hot labor market, the hire rate in August was 3.7%, unchanged from the month prior, and below its pre-pandemic level. The quit rate was also unchanged in August at 2.3%, down from the historically high 3% seen in April 2022, showing fewer workers are seeking opportunity outside of their current job. "The improved rate of retention comes as the pay premium for switching jobs has narrowed and a declining share of workers view jobs as plentiful," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a research note on Tuesday. "The lower rate of voluntary turnover should further reduce wage pressures and job openings as employers have fewer positions to backfill." Easing wage pressures would likely be a welcome sign in the Fed's fight against inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly said a rebalancing of the labor market, including a better balance of job supply and worker demand, is needed to keep inflation on its downward path. Part of that better balance includes more normal wage gains. "Nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with 2 percent inflation," Powell said during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. More labor market data is expected on Friday. The September jobs report is anticipated to show there were 170,000 jobs added to the economy last month, slightly lower than in August, with the unemployment rate expected to move down from 3.8% to 3.7%. The report will bring another look at wages, a closely watched indicator of how much leverage workers are exerting in the labor market. Wages are expected to have risen 0.3% on a monthly basis in September, up from 0.2% in the month prior. On a yearly basis, economists project 4.3% yearly wage growth unchanged from August." MY COMMENT I strongly do not trust the government data....the constant revisions are just too significant. This private data is more likely to be an accurate snapshot of the economy and the labor markets. Of course as noted in the article if you dig into even the government data....the picture is not really as presented yesterday. AND....those AI Computer Trading systems that no doubt were a big part of the market trashing yesterday....really nothing more than "news headline" trading systems for the most part.
Good to see you posting Jwalker. For me, I don't have any bonds in my plan and am not considering them at this point in my journey. That said, it also really depends on the individual investor and their plan. Bond holders got quite the wake up call during the last downturn...in the thought of not providing what many believed they were supposed to. When I think of bonds or even T-Bills and CD's....I think the plan for that money has to be taken into account. The duration of how long the money maybe "locked up", it's purpose, and when you may need it.
Yes, on some of the earlier posts about all of this data. There is just so much of it and a constant flow that never ends. As pointed out, then it is revised or simply contradicts a report from only a short time ago. I don't know how or why anybody could take in all of that information. To me, it is just information overload. Does it mean anything when taken into account over a longer period of time? Maybe. I don't concern myself with much of any of it as a long term investor and certainly not to the extent that the media pushes it full throttle. Way too much noise in that regard.
This is good news for shareholders in AMZN......but....a minor irritant for Prime members. Amazon's Prime Video ads will generate billions, analyst says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amaz...generate-billions-analyst-says-191957916.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Amazon (AMZN) is planning to roll out ads on Prime Video, and it's likely to generate billions in extra revenue for the e-commerce giant, UBS US internet analyst Lloyd Walmsley said. "We think conservatively it could add $3 billion [to Amazon's revenue] if they're just showing three minutes of ads every hour under the advertising community's current go-to-market," Walmsley told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). "But if they actually increase those ads closer to six minutes an hour, then it could obviously double that," Walmsley added. "You're talking about $6 billion of potential revenue coming in through ads, and, by comparison, traditional linear TV is showing something like 16 minutes per hour of ads." Amazon plans to roll out advertisements in its video streaming service in early 2024. The company said it aims to have "meaningfully fewer" ads than linear TV providers and other streaming services. It also will offer an option to upgrade to an ad-free plan for $2.99. Currently, Amazon includes Prime Video as a part of its Prime membership, which costs $14.99 per month or $139 per year. A standalone Prime Video membership is $8.99 per month. Even Walmsley's estimates may be understating the boost to Amazon's revenue. "We think the impact of a global rollout is in the range of $6.6 billion to $8.0 billion of incremental revenue," Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt wrote on Sept. 24. "The ad-free offering ($2.99/month) represents a roughly 20% hike to the monthly Amazon Prime subscription price in the U.S. ($14.99), or a ~26% increase on the annual fee ($139)." The company has needed to shift its approach to monetizing Prime for some time. "We've seen, especially in markets like the US, that Prime adoption has slowed quite a bit," he told Yahoo Finance Live. "You've seen it in their subscription revenue line. I think they're now at the point where they can start to move the needle more on actually directly monetizing through ads." Amazon is undoubtedly also eyeing the attractive margins for Prime Video advertising, according to Walmsley. "The incremental margins on this are likely to be quite high for Amazon because, in many cases, they've already paid for the content," he said. "They either own it outright or they've licensed it to basically provide it to Prime users. So we don't think that there's a lot of incremental cost as they start to show ads and generate ad revenue." Amazon stock is up 50% in 2023 to date." MY COMMENT This is a HUGE....free....cash cow for AMZN and their shareholders. Nothing like free money. A billion here and a billion there....and...pretty soon it adds up to real money. It is past time to monetize Prime streaming. Way to go management......this is how you create shareholder value.
We are winding down the day with a BIG rally into the close. A very positive development to see after the market yesterday
A perfect day for me today.....all eight stocks UP for the day. I had a strong gain today and also beat the SP500 by 0.42%. AMAZING.....after the big, selective, rally Monday......and the massive negative turmoil yesterday.....and now the nice gain today.....I am probably POSITIVE for the week so far. I say "probably" since I have not done the math......but.....looking at my portfolio balance I can see the result.
Here is yet another big positive for the markets going forward. Oil: 'Demand destruction has begun', say JPMorgan analysts https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-demand-destruction-has-begun-say-jpmorgan-analysts-151912451.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Oil rallied an average of 28% last quarter, jumping to a 2023 high in September as OPEC+ output cuts and further supply restraints from Saudi Arabia and Russia created a deficit in the market. Expect crude demand to decline this quarter following the recent rally, JPMorgan analysts said in a recent client note. "After reaching our target of $90 in September, our end-year target remains $86 [per barrel]," wrote Natasha Kaneva, head of the global commodities strategy team at JPMorgan. Kaneva says inventory draws seen during the summer will turn into a slight build in the final months of the year. “Moreover, demand restraint from rising oil prices is once again becoming visible in the US, Europe, and some EM countries,” reads the note titled "Demand destruction has begun (again)." “China and India drove global oil demand growth this year, but China opted to draw on domestic crude inventories in August and September after oil prices surged,” wrote the analysts. Consumers may have met their pain threshold for gasoline, a derivative of oil. The price of gasoline hit a 2023 high in September amid a squeeze on oil supply. “There are already signs that consumers have responded by cutting back on fuel consumption,” wrote Kaneva and her team. While US gasoline demand came in above the analysts’ forecast in the first half of the year, “the spike in gasoline prices in 3Q23 in turn depressed gasoline demand,” added Kaneva. As for diesel, the note highlights the recent 30% price surge in prices is mostly felt by construction companies, transportation businesses, and farmers, increasing the cost of freight and food production. Jet fuel also rose in the third quarter, prompting warnings from United Airlines (UAL), Delta (DAL), American (AAL), and other airlines impacted by higher costs. On Sept. 27, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) surpassed $93 per barrel, and Brent International (BZ=F) futures rose above $96 per barrel in new highs for the year. Prices have pulled back since then. On Wednesday WTI futures dove more than 5% to settle at $84.22 per barrel. Brent also dropped to close at $85.81 per barrel." MY COMMENT A number of things here.....yes....demand destruction. Also....as the price goes up there is more and more incentive for various other OPEC members and oil producers to ramp up production and release excess supply to try to make money from the higher prices. We are also going to see the more expensive summer gas come down as we head into the Fall. All in all it appears that this little adventure in higher oil has just about run it's course and we will now see some falling prices.
As to the above.....yes....add oil to the list of issues that are now disappearing from being market movers.....at least in the negative direction. We are now done with oil......the FED......the August/September negative market myth......the Auto strike (it is a non-issue).......and....the government shutdown. About the only issue left is the Treasury yields....and....this issue will not last for long. We move forward as always....as long term investors.....ticking off the various doom & gloom issues as we go. It never changes.
I was thinking about gold a few days ago. I happen to own some gold and silver.....not as an investment.....simply as a hoard. It has been having a hard time lately. Not So Golden https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/not-so-golden (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "After flirting with record highs this spring, gold is looking a bit dull. How do you know when gold isn’t doing well? Evidently, when no one is talking about it. Throughout April and early May, articles touting gold’s flirtation with new record highs popped up daily, hyping its alleged superpowers to hedge against any and all potential economic and societal ills, especially the then-front-of-mind bank worries. And then … nothing. The well dried up. Likely because, after coming within a hair’s breadth of a new record, gold slumped. Through September’s end, the shiny yellow metal is now down -8.7% from April 13’s year-to-date high. Just another reminder that gold is nothing special—just a boom-and-bust prone commodity that hinges mostly on sentiment. Like all commodities, gold moves on supply and demand. But unlike most, the fundamental drivers are limited. On the supply side, changes tend to be glacial. New mines take a lot of up-front work and investment, which makes new output slow to ramp up. Once those mines are going, producers are loath to slash output even if prices fall since they have to make up those high exploration and extraction costs, not to mention expensive ongoing maintenance. So supply tends to respond slowly to price movement. Meanwhile, real-world demand is narrow. Gold has few industrial uses, leaving jewelry production as the swing factor for physical use. This generally doesn’t move the needle much in terms of price swings, which leaves investor sentiment as the primary force. Sentiment, that notoriously fickle and unpredictable beast. As a result, while gold has gone on some amazing runs and amassed big returns in short periods, it has also had some real awful stretches. Gold may be up 1,566.4% since it started trading free of legal restraints in 1974, but these gains (which trail stocks by a country mile) came in short bursts.[ii] One burst was the 721.3% ascent between August 25, 1976—when gold was net negative since it was freed—and January 21, 1980.[iii] But by late May 1985 it had lost nearly two-thirds of its peak value, falling -63.4%.[iv] A small two and a half-year run followed, but gold came nowhere close to 1980’s high … and mostly fell for the next 15 years. By early 2001, gold was net flat since mid-1979. Capturing the occasionally positive returns in the interim would have required extraordinary timing. Most of gold’s reputation comes from its strong run in the 2000s, culminating in its then-record high of $1,895 per troy ounce on September 6, 2011.[v] Less famous is its subsequent -44.6% decline through mid-December 2015.[vi] Gold then stumbled sideways for two and a half years before mounting the climb to its record high on August 6, 2020. It has since flirted with this level twice but remains down on a cumulative basis. And stocks? US and global markets are up 34.6% and 27.0%, respectively, since gold’s last record high.[vii] They are also up modestly during gold’s latest swoon, even with the late-summer volatility, at 4.2% and 1.7%, respectively.[viii] Indeed, as Exhibit 1 shows, stocks have delivered positive returns during the vast majority of gold’s long slumps, despite the corrections and bear markets along the way. Stocks’ cumulative return over this period? 4,296%.[ix] Gold’s is 1,566.4%.[x] Note, too, that these are price returns only, due to data availability. Add in reinvested dividends, which gold doesn’t generate, and the gap would widen further. Exhibit 1: No Contest Source: FactSet, as of 10/2/2023. Month-end gold price and S&P 500 price index level, 12/31/1973 – 9/29/2023. Indexed to 100 at 12/31/1973. Log scale plots similar-sized percentage moves equally to facilitate viewing the movement. This discrepancy stems from stocks’ far tighter relationship with fundamental drivers, in our view. Yes, stocks are subject to sentiment-fueled swings in the short term. But over more meaningful stretches, they weigh the likelihood economic and political conditions will support corporate earnings. Forecasting this isn’t easy, but we think it is at least possible to assign probabilities. And when stocks do endure deeper and longer declines (i.e., bear markets), we think it is possible to identify logical, fundamental reasons why. Not so for gold and the fickle madness of crowds. As always, we aren’t anti-gold. We simply don’t think it is a good fit for folks seeking long-term growth to support retirement needs. Its swings are too great and impossible to time. It doesn’t hedge very well against inflation or bear markets. It is more volatile than stocks with lower long-term returns. Better, in our view, to stick with assets more linked to fundamental real-world conditions, like stocks and bonds (and perhaps cash or other securities, as and when warranted)." MY COMMENT The worst thing about gold....it does not compound. It just sits there subject to the whims of the markets. It is a nice fun little collectable....and might be a hedge against some ultimate disaster in your life or the world.....but NOT a primary investment vehicle.
Nothing....going on today. So the markets will obsess over.....you got it....nothing. Stocks fall as countdown to jobs report begins https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...begins-stock-market-news-today-143249297.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Wall Street stocks moved lower Thursday, coming off a day of gains amid a bond rout reprieve, with the focus now turning to Friday's key labor market data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.1% after breaking a three-day losing streak on Wednesday as the major stock indexes recovered from a sell-off. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 0.6%. A pullback in bond yields' blistering rally has brought some relief to battered stocks, and the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) was slightly lower after losing hold of 16-year highs the previous session. Data showed US weekly jobless claims ticked higher last week but undershot economists' expectations. They held near-historic lows, a sign of resilience in the labor market in the face of Fed rate hikes. It's another data point ahead of Friday's jobs report for September, after weaker-than-expected ADP private-sector hiring data provided another sign the labor market is cooling. That could prompt the Fed to think twice about raising borrowing costs again, lifting some pressure on markets. But some analysts believe the monthly report could be bad for stocks, whether the print is cool or hot, given the recent surge in bond yields. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to retreat on Thursday, amid concerns that a global economic slowdown will hit demand. WTI crude oil futures (CL=F) fell 1.2% to below $84, having fallen by the most since last September the previous day. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) were down 1.1%, above $84 after breaking below the key level Wednesday for the first time since late August." MY COMMENT A perfect time to sit and do nothing......as usual.
If you are into economic data......even though mostly irrelevant. U.S. jobless claims increase slightly to 207,000 for the week https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/05/weekly-jobless-claims-sept-30-2023-.html
And one last post....in the category of...."what could possibly go wrong". With Social Security trust funds ‘rapidly heading to zero,’ some ask whether the money should be invested in equities https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/05/as-...ortfall-some-propose-investing-in-stocks.html MY COMMENT NOT going to waste time posting the content. I will simply say....if you want to save Social Security here is my plan......stop stealing the money and spending it every year....while claiming it is invested in "special" treasuries that pay no actual interest. Second....invest the actual money in actual treasuries that pay interest. Of course in typical government fashion....this plan.....will borrow money to invest in stocks. Of course....violating everything you see about borrowing money to invest in the markets. The reason they would use borrowed money is so they.....our government.... can keep spending the actual money each year. And....the big issue....do you really trust some government agency to pick stocks and investments? Dont worry......none of this is going to happen.
WELL....at least I have one stock up today. NVDA. That is it for right now. I currently have a small loss for the day. Pretty much a directionless market today that does not have any incentive to do anything. About what you would expect with the totally SCHIZOID first three days this week....with the markets lurching around like a drunk. The recent action in the markets has been so extreme and irrational.....that it is simply meaningless. Short term trading driven....crap. Of course on a fundamental level....looking at any established company....nothing has changed and nothing is going to change...at least till earnings start.
You never know what the markets are going to do short term. Today is a good example. We had a negative open and then the losses piled up into mid-morning with significant losses in all the big averages. Now.....a few hours later......all the averages are slightly negative and on the verge of going positive. I looked at one of the accounts that I manage and it is positive for the day....thanks primarily to NVDA. So...... big turn-around from this morning. Lets HOPE......."hope being as good a market strategy as anything else".....that this keeps up and we see a positive close.
Yes, we clawed back most of it today from where it began anyway. Still seeing some of the stable dividend paying companies getting absolutely hammered.
I ended the day with a small but nice gain. Considering all the movement down and than back up and than closing down....I will take it. A lot of turmoil today....for a nothing close.....nearly flat. My three UP stocks today that gave me my gain were....NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT. I also beat the SP500 by 0.43% today. I am having a good week so far.....but.....lots of erratic churning in the markets to get there. It will be interesting to see how we cap off this crazy week, tomorrow.
Finally....a FED person with some good news. Daly: Fed may not have to raise rates again if long-term bond yields remain this high https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daly...m-bond-yields-remain-this-high-171503701.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Thursday if long-term bond yields remain around current levels, then the Federal Reserve won’t need to raise interest rates again. "The bond market has tightened quite considerably over about 36 basis points since we met in September," Daly said at the Economic Club of New York. "That is equivalent to about a rate hike. So then the need to do tightening additionally is not there." Long-term interest rates are at their highest levels since 2007 following a recent run-up. This past month 10-year Treasury yields have risen more than half a percentage point to surpass 4.7%. Daly, a non-voting member of the Fed interest rate setting committee who has been more hawkish this year, noted that if the job market and inflation continue to slow and if financial conditions, which have tightened in the past 90 days, remain tight, then the need for the Fed to take further action is diminished. "Financial markets are already moving in that direction and then they've done the work. We don't need to do it more," she said. Fed officials penciled in one more rate hike this year to a range of 5.5%-5.75% before holding rates at that level into next year. Wall Street sees a nearly 80% chance of holding rates at current levels in November. The Fed has raised rates 11 times since March 2022 in the most aggressive rate-hiking campaign since the 1980s. While inflation has dropped, it remains around 4%, around double the Fed’s target. Daly says she’s watching the lag effects of the Fed’s interest rate hikes and believes previous rate hikes are still making their way through the economy. This matters because the Fed is at a juncture where the central bank could "easily overcorrect" or "under correct" at this point, she said, and should take its time. If the Fed holds rates around current levels, that can be considered a continuation of active tightening, according to Daly. "Even if we hold rates steady exactly where they are today, policy is going to grow increasingly more restrictive as inflation and inflation expectations fall because the real rate will rise," she said. "So holding rates steady, even no change, is an active policy action."" MY COMMENT The FED should pause right here and do nothing for at least 6-12 months. They have been lucky so far and there is no reason to push their luck. I personally believe they are done with rate hikes for 2023. They are on thin ice right now and have no clue where the economy is going to settle in over the next 2-4 months.
Here is the close today......a crazy erratic day...the ended up going nowhere for the markets in general. S&P 500 closes slightly lower as traders brace for Friday’s big jobs report https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks ticked lower Thursday as investors looked toward key jobs data on Friday that could determine the next move for interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 9.98 points, or 0.03%, to close at 33,119.57. The S&P 500 dipped 0.13% at 4,258.19, and the Nasdaq Composite traded down 0.12% to end at 13,219.83. Consumer staples companies led the broad market index’s losses Thursday. Shares of beverage company Molson Coors fell 6.3% Thursday, followed by Mondelez International and Clorox, which declined more than 5% each. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, up just 2,000 from the prior week’s numbers. Economists had forecasted 210,000, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate. While the slight increase in jobless claims was about in-line with the Street, it disappointed some investors hoping the weekly data would start to signal a labor market breakdown and end the run in rates that’s hurting stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield initially ticked up after the jobless claims report before inching down. It was last yielding at 4.714%. “We’re in the middle of a transition from what everybody thinks is a low rate environment, to a kind of more normalized rate environment. These adjustment periods are tough,” said Horizon Investments chief investment officer Scott Ladner. On Friday, economists polled by LSEG believe nonfarm payrolls for September will show a 170,000 increase, down from a 187,000 jobs gain in August. While investors aren’t hoping for a recession, they are wishing for some labor market weakness that would cause the Federal Reserve to rethink raising rates again and halt the run in Treasury yields to 16-year highs. Ladner is optimistic that the labor market is softening with respect to the latest jobless claims and private payrolls data. “The totality of the labor market data is telling us that things are getting better. But they’re getting better in terms of numbers getting softer [and] less hot, and doing so in the most healthy way, which is essentially less hiring, but still not very much firing,” Ladner said. Stocks got a slight boost on Wednesday after the latest payroll data from ADP signaled to investors that the labor market is beginning to loosen. Nonetheless, the broad market index and the 30-stock Dow are on pace for a losing week. The Dow is down 1.16% week to date, and turned negative for the year during Tuesday’s selloff. The S&P 500 is lower by 0.7% for the week, while the Nasdaq is about flat." MY COMMENT This week like last is a stock pickers week. By that I mean it is very....portfolio specific. I know that so far I have a gain for the week. BUT....I also know that many people with other companies in their portfolio are probably down this week. I see many media sites hyping the .....BIG JOBS REPORT....tomorrow. Come on......give me a break....this is just another typical, jobs report. Government economic data that is probably already out of date and will probably end up being significantly revised.
