The Long Term Investor

As usual good news for home owners and home sellers.......buyers....not so much.

Housing inventory remains painfully low as shortage persists
Number of homes for sale drops for fifth month as inventory shortage deepens

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-inventory-remains-painfully-low-shortage-persists

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The number of homes for sale on the market fell for the fifth straight month in September amid the already severe housing shortage.

A new report from Realtor.com shows that the total number of homes for sale, including homes that were under contract but not yet sold, fell by 4% in September compared with the same time a year ago.

On top of that, available home supply remains down a stunning 45.1% from the typical amount before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, according to the report.

"Inventory remains constrained as homes sell at a fairly quick pace," the report said. "Buyers continue to contend with high listing prices, mortgage rates, and lower inventory than last year."

Still, there are some signs of improvement on the inventory front. The report indicated that total inventory rose in September from the previous month "more than can be expected for this time of year."

The lack of available homes for sale is driving home prices higher, even though mortgage rates are hovering near the highest level in two decades. Sellers who locked in a low mortgage rate before the pandemic began have been reluctant to sell, leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.

The national median list price was up 0.4% in September from the same time last year. However, there is some evidence that prices are beginning to cool off.

"While the inventory crunch continues to support listing prices, there are some signs of adjustment, as the share of home listings which have had their price reduced in the last month increased more than expected for this time of year," the Realtor.com report said.

The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hike campaign sent mortgage rates soaring above 7% for the first time in nearly two decades last year. Rates have been slow to retreat, but home prices have remained stubbornly high as buyers deal with limited inventory.

Rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged to a fresh high of 7.49%, Freddie Mac reported last week, above the 6.66% rate recorded one year ago and the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%."

MY COMMENT

It will be interesting to see how the markets react starting about January of 2024 and into the Spring.

I can see the markets at that point entering another period of price increase frenzy. Or....we simply might continue to muddle along just like we are now. Or.....the market could soften significantly.

I suspect we will not see a soft market....housing demand is going to continue to sky-rocket. Contrary to what the media was pushing a few years ago......people want to own a house....not just go for "experiences" instead.

 

After doing all my usual scanning of sources and content today....not a peep about Earnings. Very strange....but I welcome it....who cares what any so called expert predicts earnings will be. They are uniformly wrong anyway.

What will count for me and everyone else.....the actual earnings reports.

 

Speaking of real property. In my little area of 4200 homes....there are currently ONLY......35 homes for sale. That is a pretty significant lack of inventory even for this time of the year.

 

On another issue that is being discussed today.....the price of oil. I got gas yesterday.....and paid $2.99 per gallon. A few weeks ago i was paying $3.50.

 

Here is some discussion of the above.....on a more world wide level.

Oil prices surge as surprise attack on Israel sparks fears of broader conflict

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-...arks-fears-of-broader-conflict-134935071.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Oil prices jumped nearly 4% Monday morning after a surprise attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas fueled concerns of broader conflict breaking out in the Middle East region.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent International (BZ=F) futures jumped about 4% to about $86 a barrel and $88 per barrel, respectively.

Hamas over the weekend launched the biggest military assault on Israel in decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel's response to the attack will "change the Middle East."

The Middle East accounts for more than 30% of the world's oil production.

"There has been no oil supply disruption," Lipow Oil Associates president Andy Lipow wrote in a note on Monday morning. "The oil market knee jerk reaction is to move higher on the fear that the conflict will spread, eventually drawing Iran into the conflict and impacting the transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz."

Lipow noted that Iran's involvement will be key in determining how much the conflict could impact oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, which is located between Oman and Iran, produces 17 million-18 million barrels of oil per day. If closed, that could result in a $20 to $30 per barrel increase in oil prices and a surge in gasoline prices in America.

For now, though, Lipow believes the conflict won't impact gas prices' path downward.

Oil prices have been in focus over the past several months as a surge at the end of September had some analysts calling for $100 per barrel prices amid a supply shock across the market. But those prices had receded recently as "demand destruction" had begun in energy.

Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee says the lack of oil demand should limit Monday's price spike.

"Expect [oil] to initially rise on geopolitical risk, but demand is weak," Lee wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "So this will fade."

Oil's massive move higher had been flagged by many on the Street as a drag on the economy. Goldman Sachs called the headwind "manageable" while others were concerned about how rising oil prices, combined with other factors like the auto strike, the resumption of student loan payments, and a potential government shutdown, could hit growth."

MY COMMENT

Not too long ago we were energy independent.....and the largest producer in the world. BUMMER.

 

Yep it held all right. I kind of thought it might end today as a positive day.

I had a welcome small gain today....seven of eight stocks up. My lone loser today was.....drum roll please.....NVDA. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.50%.

I am just happy to see all the big averages in the green today. This is yet another example of the strength and power of the current bull market. It is withstanding everything that is thrown at it.

 

We all know that the big issue in the financial media today was the Middle East and oil. Neither is going to matter after about a week or two....if that. Israel is going to do what they always do....DECISIVELY, ferociously, and swiftly,....take out those that attack them. They will not stop till they have achieved all their goals...but it will not take long. I have seen them do this many times over the last 50+ years of investing.

As to any little bump up in the price of oil.....likely to only last a few days to a week or so.

 

Here is something more important to long term investors.

Charlie Munger Says, "The Big Money Is Not In The Buying And The Selling But In The Waiting" — High Returns Don't Actually Require High Effort

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-says-big-money-173549307.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"While Warren Buffett is often cited for his memorable quotes on investing, his long-time business partner and billionaire Charlie Munger has his own share of wisdom to offer.

Munger once stated, "The big money is not in the buying and the selling but in the waiting." This sentiment, though perhaps not as widely cited as some of Buffett's lines, holds tremendous weight in the investment world for several reasons.

The Power Of Compounding: Patience Pays Off

Munger's statement highlights the magic of compounding. Time is a powerful factor in the growth of investments. As investments begin to yield returns, those returns can be reinvested, potentially leading to exponential growth over time. This concept isn't just mathematical — it requires the discipline of patience. As the saying goes, good things come to those who wait, and in the investment realm, waiting can be quite profitable.

The Human Psyche And The Misconception Of Effort

The 99-year-old investor's insight also addresses a fundamental aspect of human nature: the belief that high returns require high effort. Society often teaches that significant accomplishments require hard work, which is true in many contexts, from careers to personal relationships. But when it comes to investing, continuous tinkering and frequent trading aren't always beneficial. Instead, a well-thought-out strategy, coupled with patience, often yields the best results.

Take, for instance, art as an investment. Historically, art has outperformed the S&P and shown consistent appreciation in value. Like Munger's approach to traditional investing, art investment requires patience. The most significant gains in art investments often come to those who hold onto pieces for extended periods, allowing their value to mature over time. Masterworks is a platform that offers regular people the opportunity to invest in art, something that was once only available to billionaires like Buffett and Munger.

Munger's Legacy: Beyond Financial Acumen

While Munger might not hold the title of the fourth-richest individual in the world like Buffett, he's no less influential in the financial world. His investment insights, backed by decades of experience, offer valuable lessons for all investors. Beyond his financial expertise, Munger is also a philanthropist. He recently demonstrated this by donating 77 Class A Berkshire Hathaway shares, with an estimated value of $40 million, to the Henry E. Huntington Library and Art Museum in San Marino, California. This act of philanthropy highlights Munger's commitment to giving back and emphasizes the importance of art."

MY COMMENT

A few of the most important investing concepts that are in the above little article.....patience, compounding, and ignoring the extreme temptation to....do something. These are critical elements of success as a long term investor.

It is so simple.....and so hard to do at the same time.

 

Still not a peep about EARNINGS.....I love it.

 

Another Munger article....classic long term investing advice.

Charlie Munger Says Denial Is The Reason For Bad Choices, And What People Wish Is What They Believe: 'If The Truth Is Unpleasant Enough, People Kind Of — Their Mind Plays Tricks On Them, And They Think It Isn't Really Happening'


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-says-denial-reason-172543782.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"In the vast ecosystem of investment and finance, few voices resonate with the clarity and depth of Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's respected partner at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. One topic he has been vocal about is the pervasive influence of denial in decision-making processes, especially in investment management.

"If I had to name one factor that dominates human bad decisions, it would be what I call denial," Munger said. "If the truth is unpleasant enough, people kind of — their mind plays tricks on them, and they think it isn't really happening."

These words cut to the heart of many failed ventures and investments. The human tendency to avoid facing unpleasant truths, especially when significant financial stakes are involved, is prevalent. At this year's Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting, this lesson on denial is something every investor, novice or expert, should internalize and guard against.

Munger's prime exhibit of this trend is the investment management sector.

"How many managers are going to beat the indexes? All costs considered, I would say maybe 5% could consistently meet the averages," Munger said.

This statistic paints a rather bleak picture of the industry, suggesting that a vast majority might be operating under a veil of "extreme denial."

Perhaps the most damning indictment from Munger centers on the prevalent practice of charging substantial fees for subpar advice.

"Everybody else is living in a state of extreme denial," Munger said. "They're used to charging big fees and so forth for stuff that isn't doing their clients any good."

Munger elaborates on this moral quandary, illustrating with the example of a widow being charged exorbitantly for advice that might not be in her best interest.

Echoing age-old wisdom, Munger invokes Greek statesman and orator Demosthenes, highlighting that this tendency to believe what one wishes is not a modern affliction but a timeless human trait.

"What people wish is what they believe," Munger said. This observation underscores the universality of denial, making it crucial to recognize and address it.

Munger's perspective is not uniformly grim. He cites companies and practices that stand as exceptions to this trend of denial-driven decision-making, like Berkshire Hathaway and the Daily Journal. At the same time, he underscores the importance of integrity in business dealings, referencing personal experiences where profit wasn't the sole driving factor."

MY COMMENT

It is critical for any investor to live and think.....in the real world. CLINICAL FOCUS on reality.

As usual easy to say.....very difficult for most people to do.

The issue is not just denial......but our capacity to rationalize and make excuses for our failure......putting the blame on outside factors or others. Until you can see the truth....there is no way for you to deal with investing failures. You will simply make the same mistakes over and over.

 

AMEN.

Good News Is Good News

https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/10/08/weekly-market-pulse-good-news-is-good-news-2/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year.

It was good news, right? Well, maybe, but you wouldn’t know it from the initial reaction in the stock market which was decidedly negative. The S&P 500 traded down over 38 points – almost 1% – within minutes of the opening. The 10-year Treasury note yield spiked higher by 17 basis points and that was the trigger for traders who, for the last two months, have been selling stocks on every tick higher in yields. The obvious fear was that the strong report would push the Fed to hike rates more. And fear beat greed all to heck in the first half hour of trading.

But as I sit here at closing time on Friday, the S&P 500 has staged a pretty neat reversal, rising 2.5% from the low of the day to the high and closing 1.2% higher. Bond yields still closed up on the day but by just 7 basis points and below the closing high of the week which came on Tuesday at 4.8%. This is something I’ve been waiting to see, for good news to be taken as good news rather than as a warning that the Fed needs to inflict some more pain. Jerome Powell has made it clear that he believes the economy needs to soften, that more people need to lose their jobs to tame inflation.

Except, of course, that isn’t true because more people working isn’t what causes inflation. The fact is that the inflation rate has fallen pretty dramatically over the last year with no loss of jobs on net. Even if you think more people getting paid is reason to worry about inflation, there was nothing of concern in this report. Average hourly earnings were up just 0.2% which if inflation stays the same in September as it was in August would be an effective pay cut. Pardon me if I fail to see how a cut in real average hourly earnings is going to spur more inflation. Maybe the guy who ought to be shopping his resume – or finding a good retirement home – is Jerome Powell.

The employment report was pretty good but, as with most of these things, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. As I’ve pointed out plenty of times over the years, I don’t spend much time on employment reports because they are subject to big revisions. While it looms large for the markets for some reason, it is way down the list of economic reports I think are important. I generally only pay attention to the sign, + or -, and I don’t even trust that because an initially positive report can be revised to negative and a negative one to positive. And sometimes both.

Over the last couple of months, those who are negative on the economy have been touting the fact that recent revisions have been negative, as if that were some kind of blinding insight about the true state of the economy. You won’t be hearing from them on that this month though since some of the previous negative revisions were revised again; July and August were up by 119k jobs, wiping out the previous negative revisions. Economic data revisions are….well you know.

I have been waiting for good economic news to be taken positively – and I think this qualifies – because that would be an indication that interest rates are near a peak. I think we’ll be there soon or may be there now because while the 10-year rate has been climbing steadily for the last two years, the rate of change of nominal gross domestic product (NGDP, GDP not adjusted for inflation) has been falling since peaking at nearly 17% in Q2 2021.

Why is that important? Well, because the 10-year rate and the year-over-year change in NGDP track each other pretty closely over time and they are converging. The YOY change in NGDP last quarter was 5.9% and it will probably be lower again this quarter. If the change is the same as last quarter, it would fall to just 5% which is close enough to the 10-year rate of 4.8% to satisfy me. (I did a video on this topic the other day which you can see here)



Another reason to think rates may be nearing a peak is that we’re starting to see some worrisome signs out of the credit markets. Not anything all that serious yet but credit spreads have been widening over the last couple of weeks; high-yield credit spreads up 61 basis points since September 20th to 4.4%. What is concerning is not the level – which is still below the long-term average – but rather the speed of the move. This doesn’t fall into the “time to panic” category but it definitely deserves watching more closely.



There’s also a lot of fretting out there about the yield curve steepening, which is also proceeding at a pretty rapid pace. But, as I’ve written recently, this is a bear steepening rather than the bull steepening we usually see just before recession, one more thing different about this cycle. If you look at past instances of bear steepenings, the implications are clear as mud. This is the ninth such steepening from an inversion since the 1960s. 6 of the previous episodes did end in recession with an average lead time of 9.3 months, but a range of 3 months to 21 months, which isn’t very helpful. They all also changed to bull steepenings after about 3 months and prior to recession.

The rise in the 10-year yield during this steepening is also extreme at about 90 basis points; the largest rise in the previous instances was 50 basis points and most of them quite a bit less. Based on what we’ve seen historically the warning would be if this shifts to a bull steepening, if rates peak and start to fall. And the faster rates fall the more urgent we should take the warning. But for now, I don’t think the steepening warrants any tactical change, especially given the current very negative sentiment in the market.



It is that negative sentiment that makes me think we’re at or very near the low of this recent correction. The correction was driven by higher rates but we don’t really know why there has been so much selling in the bond market. There are several prominent theories – too much debt issuance and QT, loss of confidence in the US because of our dysfunctional politics, inflation is still too high and won’t come down, the Chinese are dumping Treasuries – but I don’t find any of them very satisfying. This move higher in rates – selling of bonds – isn’t being driven by higher inflation expectations which is what I’d expect from all the potentially negative reasons. TIPS yields have risen in lockstep with nominal yields which raises an obvious and interesting question. What if the rise in rates is not because of something negative but something positive?

As I said above, over time, the nominal 10-year Treasury rate tends to track the year-over-year change in Nominal GDP. Changes in the nominal 10-year rate today can be seen as changes in the expectations about future NGDP growth. We also know what drives Nominal GDP:

1. Workforce growth
2. Productivity growth
3. Inflation

Workforce growth is currently expected to be around 0.5% over the next decade and absent a big change in immigration policy that’s probably a pretty good estimate. Current inflation expectations may end up being wrong – the historical evidence supports that – but they haven’t changed recently:



If we assume that the 10-year rate has been rising because NGDP growth expectations have been rising, that only leaves one variable as the cause – productivity growth. Maybe the recent rise in interest rates and the recent surge in interest in artificial intelligence isn’t a coincidence. The decade of the 2010s had the slowest productivity growth of any decade in the post-WWII era so an improvement doesn’t seem that far-fetched.



If we assume workforce growth and inflation expectations are correct and productivity growth reverts to the historical average of about 2.1%, NGDP growth should average about 5%. If we make the same assumptions and productivity growth reaches the levels of the 1950s and 1960s, NGDP growth could move up to about 5.5%. That provides us with a pretty solid explanation for the recent rise in the 10-year rate. It would also explain the bear steepening of the yield curve. An improvement in productivity growth would also keep inflation in check, keeping the Fed on hold. Long-term rates rise because of rising growth expectations while short-term rates stay the same because inflation is in check – bear steepening.

As I said above, I don’t know why other people are selling bonds. Maybe it is as simple as too many bonds being issued to pay for our politicians’ profligate ways. That certainly feels good since we all love to hate politicians – let’s blame it on those idiots! – but that only addresses the supply side of the equation. What about demand? Why aren’t there enough buyers? It doesn’t seem to be a fear of inflation – investors are selling TIPS which provide inflation protection – and since almost all bonds around the world are selling off too, it doesn’t seem to be about our credit rating. Artificial intelligence and how it might impact productivity, on the other hand, is a global phenomenon.

I could easily be wrong about why rates are rising but I think we need to at least consider the positive case. All I see in the press and from others in the investment business are all the potential negatives. Have we become so cynical, so negative about our future that a simple, positive explanation for rising interest rates just seems too far-fetched to consider? I sure hope not."

MY COMMENT

Good stuff above. I do take issue with the discussion based on us having been in a correction. We were nowhere near a 10% drop....even if it felt that way.

I think the simple reason people are selling bonds.....as rates rise they are losing their shirt. The pain is too much with their capital loss.

But....the big thesis above is right.....we have been in a time of good news never being good enough. BUT...I suspect we are stuck with that now forever. The media thrives on negativity.

 

On the the topic of bond capital losses.

Returns in the bond market have almost never been worse

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retu...t-have-almost-never-been-worse-100033553.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"For many investors, Monday's bond market closure was a welcome reprieve from one of the most challenging periods for fixed income in years.

And by some measures, what's been happening in the bond market has produced the worst results for investors on record.

Data from Bespoke Investment Group published last week showed that annualized returns over the last 20 years for long-dated Treasury notes and bonds have never been worse, as measured by the BofA Merrill Lynch 10+ Year US Treasury Index.


Returns for long-dated Treasuries over the last 20 years have never been worse. (Source: Bespoke Investment Group)
And returns over shorter periods for these instruments have hardly fared much better.

Over the last 2-, 5-, and 10-year rolling periods returns for long-dated Treasuries have been better more than 99% of the time. Only returns over the last year for this index are above the first percentile for historical returns.

According to Bespoke's data, annualized total returns over the last 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year periods are now negative for investors in long-dated Treasuries. Investors in long-dated Treasuries have experienced annualized losses of 17.6% over the last two years. In the last 10 years, these returns are just barely positive, clocking in at 0.8% per year.

Over the last 45 years, in contrast, the average annual return for long-dated Treasuries over rolling 1-, 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year periods is above 8%.

Market history, in other words, would have more than bolstered claims that you'd be unlikely to lose great sums of money betting on bonds.

Market reality is another story.

And while strategists have struggled to flag a single cause for the rise in yields, the symptoms matter more than the disease — at least right now.

Investors who perhaps viewed bonds as a safer investment because, as the name implies, the income received is fixed, have seen that worldview crumble. How investors try to put these pieces back together will have a large role to play in how markets behave in the final three months of the year."

MY COMMENT

Sounds absolutely typical. Somehow bond investors seems to always forget that there is capital risk in bonds. You can lose a ton of money....if you are not going to hold to maturity.

This is exactly why I NEVER invest in a bond. if i did I would NEVER invest in a bond that I was not going to hold to maturity.

 

We have now progressed in the day to a really nice market gain. Keep up the good work markets.

 

PEP is kicking ass on good earnings today. Here is the first little "peep" I have seen about earnings lately.

Expected rise in US earnings could be balm for stocks after rough stretch

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-expected-rise-us-earnings-100500330.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"NEW YORK (Reuters) — A resilient economy and strong consumer demand are expected to fuel a slight rise in third-quarter US earnings, which could throw a lifeline to a stock rally that has stumbled in recent months.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 1.3% from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES. Though tepid, it would mark a pickup after three quarters of flat or declining profits.

Some investors believe that could boost a deflated US stock market. The S&P 500 is down roughly 6% from its late-July highs, though still up about 12% year-to-date.

After a rough September for stocks, "we need some good news" from earnings season, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

"You've had a rate shock, you've had a confidence shock," Miskin said. "The economy has held up okay, but you need to see it come through in the numbers to support equities."

Inflation dampened company earnings in the first half, after consumer prices surged in 2022 to their highest levels in decades. Some market participants believe comparatively robust economic growth could make the third quarter a turning point.

Friday's monthly US jobs report for September was the latest evidence of economic strength. Employment rose by the most in eight months, suggesting consumer demand could stay intact for now.

"The economy has remained relatively strong and companies — particularly the largest companies — were in a good position to pass on some price increases and keep margins fairly strong," said Rick Meckler, partner at family investment office Cherry Lane Investments.

Competition from bonds

Worries over rising interest rates and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve could keep rates high for longer left all three major U.S. stock indexes with losses for September and for the latest quarter.

Treasury yields (^TNX) (^TYX) have surged to 16-year highs, dulling the allure of stocks by offering investors comparatively high income on risk-free government bonds.

Even after recent declines, the S&P 500 index is trading at nearly 18 times forward 12-month earnings estimates, exceeding its long-term average of 15.6 times, according to LSEG data.

Investors will watch for signs that higher rates have raised costs for companies, slowing their ability to borrow and grow.

"If earnings are slipping here and interest rates have gone up and growth looks a bit weaker ... I think you are going to see some pretty big earnings revisions to the downside," said Miskin, of John Hancock.

Earnings kick off on Friday with J.P. Morgan Chase and other major US banks. The bulk of earnings reports are due in late October and early November. Other companies due to report this week are Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo and UnitedHealth Group

"If the banks set the tone pretty well … that could be good for the market," said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A. Davidson.

Eyes on tech

Artificial intelligence is likely to be a key theme again. Investors will look to see if companies can turn optimism over AI developments into an improved outlook.

"We know companies are investing a lot," Ragan said. "Are they going to start to talk about the business case?"

Analysts expect technology sector earnings to have risen 6.0% in the third quarter, and see earnings for the communication services sector up 33.8% — the most of any sector, based on LSEG data.

Investors will also scrutinize company fourth-quarter outlooks, with S&P 500 earnings for the fourth quarter currently expected to rise 10.8% from a year earlier.

While the economy has defied expectations for a downturn this year, some investors expect cracks could appear as rate hikes start to bite. The Fed has raised benchmark overnight rates by 525 basis points since March 2022.

One clue could come from the consumer discretionary sector, where earnings are expected to have jumped by 23.1% from the year-ago period.

"If you truly expect there to be a recession around the corner, you'd probably be cutting back on discretionary goods first,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut."

MY COMMENT

A classic....good news is bad news twist to this article. If you take out the little snide and gratuitous comments.....and qualifying words..... of the writer....the article content is overwhelmingly positive.

Oh well.....we are used to this type of view when it comes to earnings. Fortunately all the pundits......dont control what the actual earnings are.

 

A really strong market so far today. I have a good gain going so far with ALL eight stocks in the green.

It is a shame what is going on in the Middle East....but....I believe that has taken the interest rates and the Ten Year Treasury out of the news.

My view is that the.......PROBABILITY......is that the bull market will now advance to year end....driven by earnings, soft language from the FED, and the rise in the Ten Year yields being over.

I see investors being in for a nice close to the year and very good total returns for year 2023 once it goes into the record books.

Just about all the issues that have been trying to weigh.....unsuccessfully....on the short and medium term markets are now out of the way or dissipating. Of course....new issues will continue to be brought up in the short term financial world.....even if much of the short term "stuff" is simply the usual BS.