In reference to the above: Treasury yields fall as investors seek safe havens amid Israel-Hamas conflict https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/us-treasurys-investors-consider-impact-of-israel-hamas-conflict.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as trading resumed after Columbus Day, with investors pouring into government bonds as they weighed the potential geopolitical and economic impact of the Israel-Hamas war. The 2-year Treasury yield was down by about 11 basis points to 4.961%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last more than 13 basis points lower at 4.651%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%. Concerns about the implications of the Israel-Hamas conflict continued on Tuesday, leading investors towards Treasury yields, which are traditionally seen as safer investments. Yield prices have declined as a result. Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack against Israel on Saturday. Over 1,500 deaths have been recorded so far, with thousands more injured, according to the latest figures. On Tuesday, Israel’s military said it had secured the Israel-Gaza border as it continued airstrikes on the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve officials on Monday gave hints about the outlook for interest rates. The odds of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve in November is falling, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank needs to be careful with how it proceeds following the recent climbs of Treasury yields, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested surging yields may mean there is less of a need for further rate hikes. Further comments from Fed officials are expected on Tuesday. The Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022, with the goal of easing inflation and cooling the economy, often prompting concerns that the speed of rate hikes and level of rates would lead to a recession. Early on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised its U.S. growth forecast for 2023 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1%, citing resilience from consumers and stronger business investment." MY COMMENT Good news above. Actually.....the people that might be hurt by this little "minimal black swan" in the Middle East are the bond speculators. The revival of the bond vigilantes was responsible for much of the rise in the treasury yields lately. But they are "professionals"....let them take the hit now. Perhaps their little games and market manipulations will now all come crashing down.
Only 3.5 hours more today till.....SHOW ME THE MONEY....time when the markets close. I HATE those late day FADES.....so come on....keep it moving on up.
A nice moderate gain for me today at the close....but well below where I was about mid day. I had four stocks up and four down today. Unfortunately a some of the BIG CAP tech stocks decided to turn negative as the day went toward the close. I also got beat by the SP500 today by.....0.03%.....so, basically a push. But.....I will take this sort of push day anytime. We have had a good run over the past three days. I see no reason for it to end tomorrow. In fact we cold see gains all week this week. Over the last three days the SP500 is up by.....2.35%. OUTSTANDING.
Here is the close today. Dow adds more than 100 points to notch third positive day, as falling Treasury yields lift stocks https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, boosted by declines in Treasury yields as Wall Street assessed the geopolitical risks from the Israel-Hamas war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, or about 134 points. The S&P 500 added 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed about 0.6%, coming off of earlier gains. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 12 basis points to about 4.6%, as investors sought safe assets amid the conflict. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. The move reflected the first reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict in the U.S. bond market, which was closed Monday for Columbus Day. Oil prices also eased after rallying in the previous session, providing relief to investors. Falling bond yields lifted stocks, as Wall Street remained concerned over the recent quick rise in interest rates. Investors also began looking past the geopolitical risks caused by the Israel-Hamas war, helped by Friday’s stronger-than-expected September payrolls report and optimism ahead of a slate of third-quarter earnings this week. Palestinian militant group Hamas had launched a surprise attack against Israel on Saturday, prompting Israel to declare war on Hamas. The attack marks the deadliest offensive in 50 years. The market had a knee-jerk, downbeat reaction to the conflict on Monday, but stocks rallied on Tuesday. “I think that move lower in yields has supported equity markets broadly. It may also be bringing relief to markets that perhaps there is some sort of peak in this rapidly upward moving yield in the last few weeks,” said Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist. “There’s the kind of hope building that perhaps we are at the end of the Fed tightening cycle, as well as the rising rates.” Mahajan noted that investors are also anticipating inflation data due this week, with the producer price index due on Wednesday and consumer price index set to release Thursday. Another bright spot during the day’s trading session was small caps, with the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies and the S&P Small Cap 600 index gaining just over 1% each. The Russell—only up a modest 1% so far this year—rose for a fifth consecutive day, a feat last accomplished in July. To be sure, some investors, including Gratus Capital chief investment officer Todd Jones, are noting Tuesday’s rally as a consequence of markets having already priced in negative sentiment and being in an oversold condition. “The inflation picture is still pretty, pretty bad,” Jones said, adding that he expects a flat fourth quarter even if earnings expectations for the third quarter reflect positive earnings growth. PepsiCo shares rose nearly 2% after the beverage and snack maker reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and raised its earnings outlook. Several energy and industrial names continued their stretch into the green on Tuesday, with Enphase Energy rising 5% and Generac Holdings gaining 3.8%." MY COMMENT Well we are now entering the guts of earnings over the next 5-6 weeks. We have hundreds of companies reporting this week. The BIG BANKS will start to report on this Friday. As usual the banks will dominate the first few weeks of earnings.
So true. On Middle Eastern Conflict and Stocks https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...mentary/on-middle-eastern-conflict-and-stocks (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) Markets have a long history of overcoming conflict here. "The weekend attacks by Hamas on Israel—and Israel’s response—once again bring terrible images and stories of lives cut short, under threat or forever changed. Our hearts go out to all those affected. It is hard to think about analyzing market effects when such tragedies unfold, but as ever, headlines are indeed turning to the market, weighing the potential effect on energy prices and stocks in general. At such times, we find it vital to tune down our emotions and approach things coolly, as markets do. As we write, the reaction is muted, with stocks up late Monday morning Pacific time. Oil and natural gas prices are up but well short of the spiking levels they reached in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion last year—or even last month’s highs. Greater volatility is possible, but we don’t think this conflict is likely to truncate the young bull market. Regional conflict always unsettles investors. When the fighting is in the Middle East, sentiment gets especially tense, primarily due to the region’s importance in global energy markets. Yet conflict rarely ripples through markets in the way people expect. Yes, Russia’s war in Ukraine contributed to 2022’s bear market, which we will get to shortly. But that was just one piece of the story last year, and it is an exception in a very broad history of markets seeing through regional fighting—even in the Middle East. Sadly, conflict there has been near-constant in modern market history, giving us a good sample size to look at. The next four charts do this, showing early volatility usually fades as the shock wears off and markets assess the low likelihood of a material global economic impact. Exhibit 1: The Six-Day War and Stocks Source: FactSet, as of 11/21/2013. S&P 500 price index, 12/31/1966 – 12/31/1967. Exhibit 2: Operation Desert Storm and Stocks Source: FactSet, as of 11/21/2013. S&P 500 price index, 12/31/1989 – 12/31/1992. Exhibit 3: Second Iraq Invasion and Stocks Source: FactSet, as of 11/21/2013. S&P 500 price index, 12/31/2002 – 12/31/2003. Exhibit 4: Israel-Hezbollah Conflict and Stocks Source: FactSet, as of 11/21/2013. S&P 500 price index, 12/31/2005 – 12/31/2006. Terrible as these wars were, stocks are ultimately a share in corporations’ future profitability, which generally hinges on global economic conditions. The uncertainty as a conflict approaches and erupts can hit sentiment hard, but then stocks usually weigh the total impact on global commerce, determine it will be negligible, and move on. Even in the Middle East. Investors associate Middle Eastern conflict with sky-high oil prices—and therefore big inflation and stock market declines—because of 1973, when the Yom Kippur War led directly to the Arab oil embargo, contributing to the early 1970s’ bear market. But this was the exception, not the rule. Other conflicts involving Israel didn’t trigger similar backlash, and in the wake of the Abraham Accords, other improvements in Arab-Israeli relations and the lack of unity among Arab nations today, an embargo is highly unlikely now. Some analysts warn Iran’s reported complicity in the attacks could disrupt regional supply—likely through escalated Western sanctions—but Iran hasn’t been a major player in global markets for years. It would also be very easy for other OPEC countries to offset any Iranian output falls. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s ending this summer’s output cuts would more than do it, if they chose to go that route, and long-running geopolitical tension between the Saudis and Iran suggest that possibility isn’t far-fetched at all. Natural gas could be modestly more vulnerable given Israel’s increased global exports in recent years and role in helping curb Europe’s dependence on Russian gas last year. Fighting in 2021 did take one major offshore facility offline for a spell. Right now it remains operational. If this changes, it would disrupt regional flows a bit, but the effect would be quite small compared to the disruptions that followed Russia’s Ukraine invasion last year. If that didn’t bring the severe shortages so many anticipated, it seems unlikely this will do so. For this conflict to have a material, lasting effect on markets, it would likely have to spill over to a much broader theater involving much bigger powers. One reason the war in Ukraine had an unusually large market impact last year was the threat of NATO involvement and the risk, however remote, of a hot war between nuclear powers in Europe. Even then, we don’t think this would have been enough to sink stocks into bear market territory had investors not been dealing with a host of other overlapping fears, including inflation, energy shortages, Fed rate hikes, recession forecasts, supply chain problems, China’s economy and more. Today’s landscape is much different, and investors have moved past most of last year’s hot-button issues. So it seems unlikely to us that this conflict will hit sentiment as hard as Ukraine did. This could change, if more nations get sucked in, but that outcome seems fairly distant to us at this point. Other regional powers are quiet. Talk of Lebanon, Iran and others launching attacks is mere speculation and those players, too, are quite small. The fog of war is thick, but so far, the likelihood of fighting spreading beyond the region looks quite low. Therefore, we encourage long-term investors to stay cool. Focus on your long-term goals and remember that getting the returns needed to reach them requires being invested in bull markets. Remember that 2022 was the exception, not the norm, when it comes to markets dealing with regional conflict, and investing successfully is about probabilities—not possibilities. History shows us stocks have a high probability of overcoming regional strife quickly, including in the Middle East." MY COMMENT To put is simply....do not overreact.....financially. Yes...many younger investors have not ever seen a conflict in the Middle East. I have seen many over the past 50+ years. The impact on stocks and investors here in the USA is minimal. On a personal level......as the article says...." Our hearts go out to all those affected".
The temptation is huge.....but it never works....especially long term. Does Market Timing Work? https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "We ran the numbers on market timing. Our findings? There's a high cost to waiting for the best entry point. Imagine for a moment that you've just received a year-end bonus or income tax refund. You're not sure whether to invest now or wait. After all, the market recently hit an all-time high. Now imagine that you face this kind of decision every year—sometimes in up markets, other times in downturns. Is there a good rule of thumb to follow? Our research shows that the cost of waiting for the perfect moment to invest typically exceeds the benefit of even perfect timing.1 And because timing the market perfectly is nearly impossible, the best strategy for most of us is not to try to market-time at all. Instead, make a plan and invest as soon as possible. Five investing styles But don't take our word for it. Consider our research on the performance of five hypothetical long-term investors following very different investment strategies. Each received $2,000 at the beginning of every year for the 20 years ending in 2022 and left the money in the stock market, as represented by the S&P 500® Index.2 (While we recommend diversifying your portfolio with a mix of assets appropriate for your goals and risk tolerance, we're focusing on stocks to illustrate the impact of market timing.) Check out how they fared: Peter Perfect was a perfect market timer. He had incredible skill (or luck) and was able to place his $2,000 into the market every year at the lowest closing point. For example, Peter had $2,000 to invest at the start of 2003. Rather than putting it immediately into the market, he waited and invested on March 11, 2003—that year's lowest closing level for the S&P 500. At the beginning of 2004, Peter received another $2,000. He waited and invested the money on August 12, 2004, the lowest closing level for the market for that year. He continued to time his investments perfectly every year through 2022. Ashley Action took a simple, consistent approach: Each year, once she received her cash, she invested her $2,000 in the market on the first trading day of the year. Matthew Monthly divided his annual $2,000 allotment into 12 equal portions, which he invested at the beginning of each month. This strategy is known as dollar-cost averaging. You may already be doing this through regular investments in your 401(k) plan or an Automatic Investment Plan (AIP), which allows you to deposit money into investments like mutual funds on a set timetable. Rosie Rotten had incredibly poor timing—or perhaps terribly bad luck: She invested her $2,000 each year at the market's peak. For example, Rosie invested her first $2,000 on December 31, 2003—that year's highest closing level for the S&P 500. She received her second $2,000 at the beginning of 2004 and invested it on December 30, 2004, the peak for that year. Larry Linger left his money in cash investments (using Treasury bills as a proxy) every year and never got around to investing in stocks at all. He was always convinced that lower stock prices—and, therefore, better opportunities to invest his money—were just around the corner. The results are in: Investing immediately paid off For the winner, look at the graph, which shows how much hypothetical wealth each of the five investors had accumulated at the end of the 20 years (2003-2022). Actually, we looked at 78 separate 20-year periods in all, finding similar results across almost all time periods. Naturally, the best results belonged to Peter, who waited and timed his annual investment perfectly: He accumulated $138,044. But the study's most stunning findings concern Ashley, who came in second with $127,506—only $10,537 less than Peter Perfect. This relatively small difference is especially surprising considering that Ashley had simply put her money to work as soon as she received it each year—without any pretense of market timing. Matthew's dollar-cost-averaging approach performed nearly as well, earning him third place with $124,248 at the end of 20 years. That didn't surprise us. After all, in a typical 12-month period, the market has risen 75.4% of the time.3 So Ashley's pattern of investing first thing did, over time, yield lower buying prices than Matthew's monthly discipline and, thus, higher ending wealth. Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research. Each individual invested $2,000 annually in a hypothetical portfolio that tracks the S&P 500® Index from 2003-2022.The individual who never bought stocks invested in a hypothetical portfolio that tracks the lbbotson U.S. 30-day Treasury Bill Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. The examples are hypothetical and provided for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to represent a specific investment product, and investors may not achieve similar results. Dividends and interest are assumed to have been reinvested, and the examples do not reflect the effects of taxes, expenses, or fees. Had fees, expenses, or taxes been considered, returns would have been substantially lower. Rosie Rotten's results also proved surprisingly encouraging. While her poor timing left her $15,214 short of Ashley (who didn't try timing investments), Rosie still earned about three times what she would have if she hadn't invested in the market at all. And what of Larry Linger, the procrastinator who kept waiting for a better opportunity to buy stocks—and then didn't buy at all? He fared worst of all, with only $43,948. His biggest worry had been investing at a market high. Ironically, had he done that each year, he would have earned far more over the 20-year period. The rules generally don't change Regardless of the time period considered, the rankings turn out to be remarkably similar. We analyzed all 78 rolling 20-year periods dating back to 1926 (e.g., 1926-1945, 1927-1946, etc.). In 68 of the 78 periods, the rankings were exactly the same; that is, Peter Perfect was first, Ashley Action second, Matthew Monthly third, Rosie Rotten fourth, and Larry Linger last. But what about the 10 periods when the results were not as expected? Even in these periods, investing immediately never came in last. It was in its normal second place four times, third place five times and fourth place only once, from 1962 to 1981, one of the few extended periods of persistently weak equity markets. What's more, during that period, fourth, third and second places were virtually tied. We also looked at all possible 30-, 40- and 50-year time periods, starting in 1926. If you don't count the few instances when investing immediately swapped places with dollar-cost averaging, all time periods followed the same pattern. In every 30-, 40- and 50-year period, perfect timing was first, followed by investing immediately or dollar-cost averaging, bad timing and, finally, never buying stocks. What this might mean for you If you make an annual investment (such as a contribution to an IRA or to a child's 529 plan) and you're not sure whether you should invest in January of each year, wait for a "better" time or dribble your investment out evenly over the year, be decisive. The best course of action for most of us is to create an appropriate plan and take action as soon as possible. It's nearly impossible to accurately identify market bottoms on a regular basis. So, realistically, the best action that a long-term investor can take, based on our study, is to determine how much exposure to the stock market is appropriate for their goals and risk tolerance and then consider investing as soon as possible, regardless of the current level of the stock market. If you're tempted to try to wait for the best time to invest in the stock market, our study suggests that the potential benefits of doing this aren't all that impressive—even for perfect timers. Remember, over 20 years, Peter Perfect amassed $10,537 more than the investor who put her cash to work right away. That's about $500 extra per year. Even badly timed stock market investments were much better than no stock market investments at all. Our study suggests that investors who procrastinate are likely to miss out on the stock market's potential growth. By perpetually waiting for the "right time," Larry sacrificed $68,344 compared to even the worst market timer, Rosie, who invested in the market at each year's high. Consider dollar-cost averaging as a compromise If you don't have the opportunity, or stomach, to invest your lump sum all at once, consider investing smaller amounts more frequently. As long as you stick with it, dollar-cost averaging can offer several potential benefits: Prevents procrastination. Some of us just have a hard time getting started. We know we should be investing, but we never quite get around to it. Much like a regular 401(k) payroll deduction, dollar-cost averaging helps force yourself to invest consistently. Minimizes regret. Even the most even-tempered stock trader feels at least a tinge of regret when an investment proves to be poorly timed. Worse, such regret may cause you to disrupt your investment strategy in an attempt to make up for your setback. Dollar-cost averaging can help minimize this regret because you make multiple investments, none of them particularly large. Avoids market timing. Dollar-cost averaging ensures that you will participate in the stock market regardless of current conditions. While this will not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market, it will eliminate the temptation to try market-timing strategies that rarely succeed. That said, if you use dollar-cost averaging instead of lump sum you need to keep some things in mind. If the stock price rises over time, continuing to buy throughout the year will result in an increased average price per share. That would cause you to miss out on possible gains. (That's what held Matthew back in our example above.) However, if the stock falls over time, you will keep buying at lower prices. But there's also no guarantee that the stock price will recover. As you strive to reach your financial goals, keep these research findings in mind. It may be tempting to try to wait for the "best time" to invest—especially in a volatile market environment. But before you do, remember the high cost of waiting. Even the worst possible market timers in our studies would have beat those who neglected to invest in the stock market at all. In brief Given the difficulty of timing the market, the most realistic strategy for the majority of investors would be to invest in stocks immediately. Procrastination can be worse than bad timing. Long term, it's almost always better to invest in stocks—even at the worst time each year—than not to invest at all. Dollar-cost averaging is a good plan if you're prone to regret after a large investment has a short-term drop, or if you like the discipline of investing small amounts as you earn them. Lastly, it's important to note that there's no guarantee you'll make money through investing in stocks. For instance, there's always a chance we could enter another period like the 1960s through early 1980s." MY COMMENT If you read this thread you will see that I ALWAYS.....over the five years of investing posted here........ invest....all in all at once. I ALWAYS follow the research and the probabilities. The academic research is clear. Many people can not bring themselves to do this.....it is just too counter-intuitive to human behavior and thinking. If that is you....take the next best approach confirmed by the above and all the other research over the years.
AMAZINGLY.....with over 300 companies reporting this week.....including most of the big banks....not a peep about earnings on any of the sites I scan. It is a media blackout.
The little rally so far today is holding. But we have a long way to go till the close. I will take any gains....but....would not be surprised if we see this small rally fade by the close today. Who knows....I dont trade day to day markets......so.....they can do what they want. As usual I salute the POWER of the current market.....in the face of hot inflation news today....the markets are still green. We are moving forward and shaking off some of the underlying general FEAR that seems to be typical now....with many people.
Speaking of the inflation news today. Wholesale inflation in US rises 2.2% in September, biggest year-over-year gain since April https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wholesale-inflation-us-rises-2-124249112.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale prices rose last month at the fastest pace since April, suggesting that inflationary pressures remain despite a year and a half of higher interest rates. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — climbed 2.2% from a year earlier. That was up from a 2% uptick in August. On a month-to-month basis, producer prices rose 0.5% from August to September, down from 0.7% from July to August. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 2.7% in September from a year earlier and 0.3% from August. The Federal Reserve and many outside economists pay particular attention to core prices as a good signal of where inflation might be headed. Wholesale prices have been rising more slowly than consumer prices, raising hopes that inflation may continue to ease as producer costs make their way to the consumer. But Wednesday's numbers, driven by an uptick in the price of goods, came in higher last month than economists had expected. Wholesale energy prices surged 3.3% from August to September, and food prices rose 0.9% after tumbling 0.5% from July to August. Last year, inflation reached highs not seen in four decades, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively. The central bank has boosted its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022. Those higher borrowing costs have helped cool inflation and slow a still-solid job market. There are growing expectations that the Fed may decide to leave interest rates alone for the rest of the year. On Monday, two Fed officials suggested that the central bank may leave its key rate unchanged at its next meeting in three weeks, helping touch off a rally in bonds and stocks. Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said last month’s higher producer prices “likely do not change the outlook for Fed policy. Our baseline remains that rates are at a peak. For the Fed, geopolitical developments will be an additional risk factor which will likely keep policymakers proceeding cautiously going forward.″ In the meantime, the economy has remained sturdier than expected. Optimism is rising that the Fed may pull off a ''soft landing'' — raising rates just enough to tame inflation without tipping the economy into a deep recession. On Thursday, the Labor Department will issue its closely watched consumer price index for September. Last month, the department reported that compared with 12 months earlier, core consumer prices in August rose at the smallest pace in nearly two years." MY COMMENT What I see as the most important part of this report: "On a month-to-month basis, producer prices rose 0.5% from August to September, down from 0.7% from July to August." YES.....as usual....there is no recession going to happen any time soon. The economy is strong and still picking up steam....as we are now nearly recovered from all the disruptions and distortions from the pandemic economic shutdown. Much of this data....especially labor data....is still unreliable and distorted.....but the actual economy is very strong.
Of course....this is one of the primary causes of the rising stock markets over the past few days. 10-year Treasury yield declines despite hot wholesale inflation data https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/us-treasurys-investor-attention-turns-to-key-inflation-reports.html Personally.....I dont try to invest based on how the bond traders happen to be manipulating.......or trying to manipulate the bond markets.....for their trading profits. They are a whole other world....that I totally steer clear of....and DO NOT allow to influnce my investing behavior.
At mid day...about 10:09AM.....I am having a very good day so far. I have only a single stock in the red....HD. and the markets seem to be holding steady....and....strengthening a little bit. Especially the NASDAQ.
I will say......I am going to be somewhat tied up on Thursday and Friday. So you might not see a lot of posting. A good opportunity for others to have some fun posting and discussing your investing. So if I am somewhat MIA.....you guys......KEEP THE RALLY GOING.
OK......am I the only person left in the world that still gets paper.....mail delivered.....magazines. I currently still get a number: Readers Digest Art & Antiques Equus The Horse Family Dog Art News Western Art & Architecture Western Art Collector In the past I got: Kiplinger Money Forbes Investors Business Daily The Economist Business News Consumer Reports Texas Monthly US News and World Report
STILL....hanging in there with the NASDAQ today. It is a good day for the BIG CAP TECH world of investing. We continue to see a steady run back up for NVDA. I am liking what I am seeing lately. The laundry list of recent "fear" topics seems to be losing steam to move the markets down. We are seeing good market strength in the face of some negative items. AND.....we are stringing together positive days. This is how momentum is built. Sooner or later....if we can keep this up....we will see people capitulate and come back into the markets with all that cash that is sitting on the sidelines. AND.....we are just at the start of EARNINGS....which can definately push the markets higher. I have not seen many companies warning about earnings......a good sign.
YES.....good for your sanity. How to become a better investor: Avoid stress https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/how-to-become-a-better-investor-avoid (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Everyone who has ever invested money knows that financial markets can induce stress. Nobody likes to see their investments make losses but when they do, the pressure builds to recover these losses. But does this stress change investment behaviour? I don’t think that any reader will be surprised when I say that the answer is yes. Gesa-Kristina Petersen and Theresa Spickers used lab experiments to investigate how stress changes investor behaviour. To do this, they recruited 492 volunteers to participate in the typical artificial stock market that is used to examine the formation and collapse of bubbles. A group of six randomly selected participants are trading in a stock that in each period pays a random dividend between 0 and 0.6 ‘talers’ with an expected dividend of 0.24 talers. The participants can trade the stock between them for 15 rounds. After the 15th and last round, the game will end, and the stock will be worthless. Thus, the fair value of the stock at the beginning is the average expected dividend times 15 (the number of rounds) and drops by the average expected dividend each round till it reaches zero. As in every experimental market of this form, share prices tend to balloon into bubbles where optimistic investors bid up the price of the shares in the early rounds, hoping for a higher dividend. As the game nears its end, the share price can no longer be sustained and the bubble bursts, sending the share price crashing to zero. In order to examine how stressed people, behave in such a market, the researchers asked randomly selected participants to count down from a given starting number in steps of 17. Every time the participant made a mistake, they were interrupted by the experimenters, given a new starting number, and asked to do it all over again. And because the participants had to count down in steps of 17 before the other volunteers in their group it really did stress them out, as you can imagine. Comparing markets with stressed investors to markets with more relaxed traders showed that bubbles appear in both types of markets and the bubbles were typically of similar size. However, stressed investors were reluctant to deviate from the market opinion. They were hiding in the herd. But that means that they were more reluctant to sell an overvalued stock than calmer investors, thus prolonging the bubble without making it larger. But when the bubble inevitably burst, these stressed investors were the ones more likely to be stuck holding overvalued shares. By going with the herd longer than other investors, they were the last ones holding the bag. This provides an obvious, but important lesson. If you want to become a better investor, make sure you are not stressed when you make investment decisions. And that means turning off financial TV like Bloomberg or CNBC which are designed to stress you with a constant barrage of ‘alerts’. Similarly, social media groups, message boards, and social media influencers do only one thing. They want to keep you engaged for as long as possible and the best way to do that is to bombard you with content, stressing you out in the process. Following social media influencers or social media groups about investments is not only useless (because most of them are charlatans, in my view) but actively makes you a worse investor by robbing you of your ability to think for yourself." MY COMMENT Of course following this thread or posting on this thread is......anti-stress. Here you will get the truth......and....an emphasis on long term investing. I can not think of anything WORSE than social media and Influencers for any investor.....BEWARE.
WOW.....all the big averages are now green....with only ten minutes to go. BUT....sometimes in the short term markets....ten minutes is an eternity.
Way to go Goldman Sachs.....you disclose negative earnings news only three market days before you report. Brilliant. Goldman Sachs warns of hit to third-quarter earnings on deal to offload GreenSky https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/gol...ter-earnings-on-deal-to-offload-greensky.html Banks are one category of stocks that I never will own. They are too erratic and I simply dont trust many of them. The big investment banks are way too volatile. And the retail banks......for example..... look at the constant criminal and fraudulent events involving Wells Fargo over the past 15 or more years.
Another great day for the markets in the face of continued world and economic events. The Middle East could not hold the market back. The Inflation report could not hold the markets back. I ended the day with a nice FAT gain today. Every stock up except for HD. I also got in a good beat on the SP500 by 0.86% today. My star of the day....NVDA...up over 2% today. That gives me a nice bump up on a day like this since that is a "double" position in my portfolio. Of course the reverse is true on a down day.
Here is the close today. S&P 500 closes higher for a fourth day as traders prepare for consumer inflation data https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/10/stock-futures-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks ticked higher Wednesday as traders awaited the release of new U.S. consumer inflation numbers and Treasury yields continued to retreat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher by roughly 46 points, or about 0.1%. At its session high earlier Wednesday, the Dow was up more than 143 points. The S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.6%. The consumer price index report for September is slated for release Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect an increase of 0.3% from the previous month and 3.6% year over year. Investors will keep a close eye on the data as they search for clues on future Federal Reserve policy moves. The numbers will come a day after traders pored through hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation figures. The producer price index rose 0.5% for September, coming out higher than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise. The figure still represented a slowing from the 0.7% producer prices increase in the prior month. The majority of Fed officials indicated at their September meeting that one more hike would be likely, minutes released Wednesday showed. “A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted,” the summary of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting stated. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined more than 6 basis points on Wednesday, but hit a 16-year high earlier this month. Since the September Fed meeting, policymakers have indicated that higher yields could negate the need for future hikes. ″[The market is] really confused right now, but I think the overall trend of PPI, CPI and today’s Fed minutes are going to push the 10-year Treasury yield higher over the coming months,” said Derek Schug, head of portfolio management at Kestra Investment Management. “There’s some concerns for stocks to be overly bullish but again, inflation is generally good and higher interest rates are generally not a bad thing for stocks over time,” Schug said. To be sure, despite the economy being more resilient than expected, investors noted that inflation will continue to remain sticky. Earlier Wednesday, Exxon Mobil agreed to buy shale driller Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock transaction worth $59.5 billion, the largest merger announced on Wall Street this year. Pioneer shares were up 1.3%, while Exxon was down by about 4%. Investors continue to assess the ongoing war unfolding between Israel and Hamas after the militant group launched an attack on Israeli civilians in what marked the deadliest offensive the country’s experienced in 50 years. President Joe Biden condemned the Hamas attacks as terrorism in remarks Tuesday and said that the United States stands with Israel." MY COMMENT A good day that I am expecting to continue tomorrow and Friday. I dont see much gong on that is significant to the markets at this moment and the events in the Middle East are overwhelming much of the other news. I have not run the numbers....but....I believe I have now breached my prior all time high.
