The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    We had the “Impossible” burger once at Bareburger, I thought it was pretty good being that it doesn’t have meat. But that was the only time I had it.
    Sold some Disney today and planning on buying more goog with that money later this week as I’m pretty sure it will drop some more. There’s a lot of negative talk about the company... the same kinda bad news tsla got back in the day... Noise news I call it.
    Good, good... let that sucker drop, I’ll be waiting...
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    GOOG or GOOGL. I am interested in why people buy the version of this stock that they buy. I personally bought GOOGL since I dont believe in holding a stock that DOES NOT have voting rights. I would......GUESS....that the only reason people buy GOOG is the little bit lower price per share along with the fact that people just believe that their shareholder vote is MEANINGLESS. AND.......it probably is.

    POOR GOOGLE...........they have been the WEAK SISTER of the MONSTER tech world for a good length of time. I DO.......obviously........own the company since they DO have a monopoly and I LIKE stocks that are monopolies and dominant. EVEN as an owner.......I REALLY dont think they will have a big, dramatic, push upward. I believe they will linger......as usual......for the long term. ("linger" being a relative term in the BIG tech world) They DO have nice profit margin.....18.99% and operating margin.....20.09%. I own them........because.......they are performing VERY WELL......if you dont compare them to the rest of the tech GIANTS.

    GOOG TOTAL RETURN

    One month +.23%
    three month +11.37%
    YTD +10%
    Three year +15.92%
    Five year +17.38%
    Ten year +14.94%

    REALLY BIG market today. OBVIOUSLY due to anticipation of more stimulus and vaccine news. The short term markets are TOTALLY disconnected from REAL economic and company data right now as is often the case. They THRIVE on rumor, speculation, innuendo, and day to day SOAP OPERA DRAMA and turmoil.

    EARNINGS? What......who ever heard of earnings. BUT.....I think it is a good thing that investors are NOT focused on earnings at the moment since they are TOTALLY skewed by the........self imposed.........self loathing.......economic shut down.
     
    #1742 WXYZ, Aug 5, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Keep in mind that GOOGLE has only been a public company for about 16 years. Pretty amazing growth over that time for a very young company. What will count for shareholders will be the ability of the company to STAY DOMINANT for the next 10-20 years. If they can pull that off I will be a VERY CONTENT shareholder.

    AND......I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE.....to see the DOW above 27,000 today. Even though the broader markets are not showing as large of a gain. At least.......so far........everything is STILL nicely positive.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    RANDOMLY jumping to a new topic:

    I have NEVER been a fan of Target Date funds. I believe they will significantly under-perform the SP500 and the general averages by a significant amount over the life time of most investors. The percentage of bonds that most hold is way more than should be held according to the age of the people buying the funds. In fact in general, the amount of bonds being recommended for people of all ages is WAY out of control in my opinion.

    In addition the amount of International stocks they tend to own is way higher than most people need. I looked at many Target date funds recently and many of them held 25% to 35% in International stocks. I have yet to see many international stocks that outperform high class AMERICAN businesses that market their iconic products around the world. Our companies and our economy are the gold standard around the world. I.......prefer......to do my International investing by holding great American companies that do much business in the international marketplace.

    I still believe........in the old fashioned way.......that anyone with 20 or more years to retirement should be 100% in stocks and funds. Perhaps even those with fifteen year to retirement. In my opinion most people would be better off being 100% invested in the SP500 for their entire lifetime. Skip the target date, low performing funds. The......KEY.......is you have to have the guts to stay fully, 100%, invested for life to capture all the gains and compounding.

    Here are some target date fund examples of TOTAL RETURN:

    T. Rowe Price Retirement Series 2020 Fund - five year 6.14%, ten year 8.87%
    T. Rowe Price Retirement Series 2025 Fund - five year 6.48%, ten year 9.5%
    T. Rowe Price Retirement Series 2035 Fund - five year 6.94%, ten year 10.43%
    T. Rowe Price Retirement Series 2050 Fund - five year 7.13%, ten year 10.66%

    Compare this to the SP500 total returns:

    Five year return 10.61% and ten year return 13.84%

    This sort of difference in return in favor of the SP500 will add up to...........VERY SIGNIFICANT.......money over 15, 20, 25, 30 years. At least many of these funds have reduced their bond allocation. The International holdings....not so much. Of course.....if owning one of these funds gives someone the CONFIDENCE to invest and stay invested....that is a good thing.
     
    #1745 WXYZ, Aug 5, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
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  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOTS of green today on the bottom line. I look at the results of the entire portfolio. AND was able to BEAT the SP500 by .36% today. A very good day. ALL the averages were up. Earnings are coming in pretty good. A SOLID three days to open the week. A very good probability that yet another week will end up NET POSITIVE. SP500 IS positive for the year........+3%....... and DOW is closing in on it.......(-4.68%). Of course the NASDAQ is ALSO positive for the year..........+22%. MOST people have probably recovered all in their accounts and many are at new highs.

    Sounds like about time for a.........BIG FAT........black swan. Just kidding......I hope.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WTF is going on. They did a........survey of economists.......AND.......the result was WRONG. How can this be? OMG....my world is collapsing. YES.......yet again.....the IDIOTS being surveyed are WRONG. Seems like after a while you would find some new people to survey. At least the result is usually ALWAYS WRONG to the side that is GOOD for the economy, the country and investors:

    U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.186 million, lowest level of the coronavirus pandemic

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/weekly-jobless-claims.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • New filings for unemployment benefits last week totaled 1.186 million, the lowest level of the coronavirus era.
    • Wall Street had been expecting more than 1.4 million.
    • In another positive sign, continuing claims, or those who have collected benefits for two straight weeks, dropped by 844,000, but was still at 16.1 million.
    • But the damage to the labor remains deep and this was the 20th consecutive week that claims have run above 1 million.

    U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.186 million, vs 1.423 million expected

    Weekly jobless claims hit their lowest level of the pandemic area, totaling 1.186 million last week, well below Wall Street expectations.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 1.42 million. The level for the week ended Aug. 1 represented a drop of 249,000 from the previous period.

    Amid worries that the employment picture was faltering after two record-breaking months of job creation, the claims number indicates some momentum. Continuing claims, or those who have collected benefits for two straight weeks, dropped by 844,000 to 16.1 million.


    [​IMG]
    Markets reacted positively to the news, with Dow futures shaving almost all of their earlier losses as stocks looked to open about flat.

    The last time the weekly claims number was this low was March 14, just as the coronavirus hit pandemic status and the U.S. economy came to a standstill in an effort to halt the spread. The totals since then have easily eclipsed anything seen before in records going back to 1967.

    Even with this past week’s improvement, the total remains well above the pre-pandemic record of 695,000 in 1982.


    [​IMG]
    The four-week moving average, which smooths volatility in the numbers, fell by 413,250 to 16.6 million. But the damage to the labor remains deep and this was the 20th consecutive week that claims have run above 1 million.

    The total of those claiming benefits, which lags the current data by two weeks, rose to 32.1 million as of July 18, an increase of 1.3 million from the previous week.

    Pandemic Unemployment Assistance recipients declined to 655,707, a fall of 253,093 from the previous week as the program expired July 31. The program provided benefits to those who normally wouldn’t be covered under traditional unemployment insurance. Congress and the White House are working on an extension of the program but have not reached an agreement yet.

    The report comes a day ahead of the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls release for July. Economists expect it to show growth of nearly 1.5 million, though Wednesday’s private payrolls report from ADP, which showed a gain of just 167,000.

    The past week’s improved showing from claims will not be reflected in the July count as it falls outside the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ sample week.

    MY COMMENT

    OF COURSE. These survey predictions are just about ALWAYS wrong to the negative side. WONDER WHY? Either the people being surveyed are IDIOTS (probably). OR.......the people doing the survey know that their survey results are totally inaccurate but just continue to do them the same way anyway. (probably) Or......there is INTENTIONAL BIAS in doing the survey the way they do. (probably) Or.....the people doing the survey think people are just STUPID. (probably)
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YA THINK?

    The market is underpricing the possibility of a vaccine, Goldman Sachs strategists say

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ine-goldman-sachs-strategists-say-11596707265

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The market is underpricing the possibility of a vaccine, Goldman Sachs strategists say.

    Forecasts are assuming a nearly 40% chance of a vaccine being broadly available by the first quarter of 2021, and the strategists, led by Kamakshya Trivedi, say there is a good chance that at least one vaccine will be approved by the Food and Drug Administration by the end of November and broadly distributed by the middle of 2021. “This kind of timeline could see a substantial boost to GDP [gross domestic product] relative to a ‘no-vaccine’ case, particularly for the U.S., which is likely to lead the vaccine race and is likely to experience worse outcomes than in Europe without a vaccine,” the strategists say.

    The steep rise in vaccine probabilities is one key reason that the equity market has managed to make new highs even without definitive improvement in U.S. health outcomes, the strategists add, with the other reason being the fall in inflation-adjusted bond yields.

    The S&P 500 SPX, 0.09% has climbed 49% from its March lows, and the technology-led Nasdaq Composite COMP, 0.15% has registered 31 records this year.

    The current equity market level is consistent, they say, with a 60% chance of no vaccine.

    On these estimates, options markets may be underpricing the fatness of both ‘tails,’ especially the upside case. Out-of-the-money call options on the S&P 500 (and some other indices) still look attractively priced given our view of the vaccine timeline outcomes,” they say.

    The strategists also say the U.S. election is being underappreciated, not for its impact on domestic policy but for international relations. The “international implications both in the run-up to the election and beyond will be equally important for market direction in coming months,” they say. While the slow-motion decoupling of the U.S. and China will probably continue regardless of who wins, “a Biden administration would likely use different tactics, including more cooperation with traditional allies and less aggressive use of tariffs.” This, in turn, could lead to another leg of the dollar DXY, -0.02% falling, particularly against the yuan USDCNY, 0.19%.

    A vaccine could spark a renewed rotation toward traditional cyclicals, steeper bond-market yield curves, and outperformance in emerging market currencies and equities. “We suspect that it is still too early to position aggressively for that shift, but think that options exposure in some of these areas may already make sense,” they say.

    School reopening risks, they add, may continue the theme of low real rates, tech leadership, and the defensive rally of the past month. “But with some of these moves getting stretched, investors should be open-minded about the possibility of a shift in leadership across global markets in the months beyond, especially if the news flow on the vaccine front continues to be encouraging,” the strategists said."

    MY COMMENT

    YES.....the MEDIA and many others.....especially public health bureaucrats/politicians.....are constantly pushing the NEGATIVITY. I DO NOT care about the politics.....BUT......their behaviors and comments do impact the markets. I MUCH prefer to have a surprise that will result in a market boom. My FIRM BELIEF........there is an OBVIOUS "PROBABILITY" that there WILL be a vaccine....probably multiple vaccines.......going into production some time in September, October, or November. I think it is INSANITY that the markets would NOT be pricing this in already. BUT.....that is fine with me.....makes for MORE and BETTER gains for investors that are LONG TERM and FULLY INVESTED.

    As to a shift toward.........yes once again they are pushing......EMERGING MARKETS..........in my opinion NOT something I would EVER consider investing in. I have NO interest in any emerging market company or country as an investment. I want the safety and leadership of BIG American companies. The LAST thing I am interested in as a LONG TERM INVESTOR is trying to jump around from sector to sector in anticipation of some short to medium term rotation.
     
    #1748 WXYZ, Aug 6, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2020
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Zukodany........looks like GOOG is treating you very nicely today.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I REALLY like this little article. Not because it is about Apple.......but.......for the content in the middle of the article discussing future earnings potential as a tool in evaluating a stock.

    Apple (AAPL) Upgraded to Strong Buy: Here's Why

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-aapl-upgraded-strong-buy-160004507.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Apple (AAPL) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.

    The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

    Individual investors often find it hard to make decisions based on rating upgrades by Wall Street analysts, since these are mostly driven by subjective factors that are hard to see and measure in real time. In these situations, the Zacks rating system comes in handy because of the power of a changing earnings picture in determining near-term stock price movements.

    As such, the Zacks rating upgrade for Apple is essentially a positive comment on its earnings outlook that could have a favorable impact on its stock price.

    Most Powerful Force Impacting Stock Prices

    The change in a company's future earnings potential, as reflected in earnings estimate revisions, and the near-term price movement of its stock are proven to be strongly correlated. The influence of institutional investors has a partial contribution to this relationship, as these big professionals use earnings and earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of a company's shares. An increase or decrease in earnings estimates in their valuation models simply results in higher or lower fair value for a stock, and institutional investors typically buy or sell it. Their transaction of large amounts of shares then leads to price movement for the stock.

    Fundamentally speaking, rising earnings estimates and the consequent rating upgrade for Apple imply an improvement in the company's underlying business. Investors should show their appreciation for this improving business trend by pushing the stock higher.


    Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions

    Empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, so it could be truly rewarding if such revisions are tracked for making an investment decision. Here is where the tried-and-tested Zacks Rank stock-rating system plays an important role, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions.

    Earnings Estimate Revisions for Apple

    This maker of iPhones, iPads and other products is expected to earn $12.92 per share for the fiscal year ending September 2020, which represents a year-over-year change of 8.7%.

    Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Apple. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 5%.

    Bottom Line


    Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term."

    MY COMMENT

    I LIKE the middle of the article dealing with earnings and future earnings.
     
  11. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Haha yess I got more shares bright and early today from the shares I sold of Disney yesterday. Did the same trade as with my dunkin shares earlier this week. Sold a few and traded for goog. I know, I know, it’s silly for me to wait if I’m A BELIEVER and if I’m staying with it long term but heck I’m not disappointed.
    Next week I may begin a new phase with my investments. The wifey and I were looking for commercial properties but we just couldn’t get the deal that we hoped for, so now we’re simply looking to drop all that money into high dividend stocks instead. We’re looking at 4 right now. Nothing super crazy but ones that have been paying an average 4-5% and are in no “risk” group. Abbv, O, AMCR and (more) ED (no dirty jokes please). We were thinking about T as well but I’m not a strong believer in them.
    I know this may sound crazy doing all this now (especially when I promised myself not to buy anything this year, right?) but this will be kind of a “test” for us to see if we can manage to replace the 5% yield from our business with 5% from the div’s. We still have our properties generating income of course and have other sources of income, so it will be money that we are looking to invest for our future, only this time instead of the business, it will go into stocks. Call me crazy but heck I managed to talk my wife into it so I’m not quitting now!
    Let’s see if I ACTUALLY do this. To be continued.......
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another nice GREEN day.........and the living is easy. We need a nice UP day tomorrow to finish off a clean sweep this week for the markets. I am on a ROLL lately against the SP500........POW........beat the average by .71% today.

    Good for you Zukodany. That is some pressure you put on yourself.......talking your wife into investing the cash. Sounds like a plan......might give you a preview of transitioning into retirement in the future. You know me........I dont have a problem with making a good PROBABILITY based move.......at any time. I do not follow any of those stocks, but I am sure you have done your homework.

    If you wish........keep us posted on details of any purchases and how it works out, compared to your initial plan, over time. HOPEFULLY you will get some nice capital gains as the shares increase in value in addition to the dividends. I assume since you are seeking income that you are going to pull the dividends out? Or, are you going to invest them and try to grow the portfolio for the long term?
     
  13. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    A good day for me as well! Getting your wife on board is the most important step.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.........once again the survey of IDIOTS........whoops, I mean "economists".........was WRONG. Seems very ODD to me. BUT......

    Job Growth Tops Estimates, Signaling U.S. Rebound Is Grinding On

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-u-s-increased-by-more-than-forecast-in-july

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The U.S. labor market continued to regain ground in July, though at a slower pace, indicating the economic rebound is still making headway despite a surge in coronavirus infections.

    Payrolls increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates for a 1.48 million gain and after a 4.79 million advance in June, according to data Friday from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate fell by more than expected, to 10.2%, while a broader gauge of joblessness also declined to 16.5%.

    [​IMG]
    The data point to a labor market that’s on the mend as the economy crawls its way back from the depths of a virus-induced recession. At the same time, the jobless rate remains high and the path forward will be uneven, with higher-frequency indicators turning more negative as businesses use up the last of their federal loans and reduced unemployment benefits pressure consumer spending.

    There is some moderation in the pace of job creation, naturally, as you get past the initial bounce in activity upon reopening,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp. “It’s still a long road ahead in terms of fully recovering the labor market, but progress is being made.”

    U.S. equities dipped amid growing speculation that lawmakers won’t be able to agree on a new round of economic stimulus. The dollar strengthened and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose slightly.

    With lawmakers and administration officials struggling to reach an accord on a new relief package, President Donald Trump said on Thursday he’s likely to sign an order Friday or over the weekend extending the enhanced unemployment benefits and imposing a payroll tax holiday.

    “The talks are rather stalemated right now,” White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said on Bloomberg TV after the report. Despite that, Trump plans to use executive orders to get “certain priorities through,” including a payroll tax cut and eviction moratorium, he said. Kudlow continued to call the economic recovery “V-shaped”.

    Employment remains about 13 million below the pre-pandemic level in February, when the recession officially started, the July data show.

    [​IMG]
    Adjusted for the misclassification of unemployed Americans as employed -- an issue that’s plagued the data to varying degrees since March -- the jobless rate would have been about 1 percentage point higher, the Labor Department said.

    What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
    “Following an unprecedented swing from severe drop to sharp rebound, the economy is entering more conventional recession dynamics. A prolonged period of elevated unemployment and subdued participation in the labor market will weigh heavily on income growth, personal spending and top-line growth.”

    -- Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger

    The increase in employment reflected further reopening effects on the leisure and hospitality industry, where payrolls at restaurants jumped by a half million. Retail trade employment also increased, though at a slower pace, with more than 250,000 jobs added. Health care and social assistance payrolls rebounded as doctors’ offices continued to open and as demand for day care increased.

    At the same time, manufacturing employment rose just 26,000 in July, well below forecasts and held back by declines in payrolls at producers of fabricated metals, machinery and computers and electronic products. Auto makers added more than 39,000 workers.

    Government Payrolls
    The report also showed a 241,000 jump in local government employment, reflecting seasonal adjustments. Federal government employment increased 27,000 in July, boosted by hiring of temporary workers for the Census.

    Layoffs have been piling up in the past several weeks, particularly in industries most affected by the pandemic. American Airlines Group Inc. advised that 25,000 jobs are at risk when aid expires and United Airlines Holdings Inc. said it would furlough one-third of its pilots. L Brands Inc., which owns Victoria’s Secret, said it would lay off 15% of its workforce.

    On the other hand, Amazon Inc., Alphabet Inc., Ford Motor Co. and D.R. Horton Inc., are among companies that have been adding, or plan to increase, headcount.

    Black American unemployment dropped to 14.6%, compared with 9.2% for Whites and Hispanic unemployment of 12.9%, the Labor Department’s jobs report showed. The jobless rate for women, who carry the most responsibility for childcare and homecare duties, fell to 10.5% and for men it dropped to 9.4%.

    The data showed little change in the number of Americans who lost their jobs permanently in July. The number remains well below that during the financial crisis.

    MY COMMENT

    YES........yet again the god-like (with a small G) ECONOMISTS........our modern day version of an ANTI-CASSANDRA.......strike again. HOW is it possible for this STUFF be ALWAYS be wrong? In spite of the continued.............MORONIC........closure of the country and economy we are slowly but surely fighting our way back. The bottom line........NEVER.......rely on any sort of predictions or analysis by any economist as an investor. The ONLY thing you can..........somewhat.........rely on is actual individual company financials. ANY.......data or opinions in the media or any other source is simply...................CORRUPTED OPINION masquerading as fact of educated opinion.

    Of course........who listens or reads this economic or other stuff anyway. We are in the ROBINHOOD day trading era. It is a NEW NORMAL......right? Who needs to actually KNOW anything about anything to be a stock trader.

    RELAX.......I say this stuff from a devilish sense of humor........NOT as a rant. It is hard to see that someone has a WRY SMILE on their face when reading on the internet.
     
    #1754 WXYZ, Aug 7, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am NOW going to post something that I WILL NOT REPEAT.....after this one post. I will NOT discuss further. I might even delete this post because I DO NOT post politics on here. BUT.........what about the impact of the election on investors?

    In my OPINION the choice could not be more clear. If the DEMS take power through the Presidency or the Presidency and congress we will BE TAKING a BIG step toward becoming.......very quickly.......a Socialist, Authoritarian, country. The policies advocated by the vast majority of national DEMS should scare the SH#T out of EVERYONE. The STUFF we have seen happening during the past 6 months should scare the SH#T out of everyone. We have seen some entire parts of the constitution GUTTED in the span of just 6 months without a WHIMPER by the general population. Seems to me there is something in there about........"prohibiting the free exercise thereof" when it comes to religion. Also might be something in there about limiting or restricting the right of people to "peaceably to assemble". ADD IN..........the advocacy to ELIMINATE history, culture, and social norms,that we have seen over the past 6 months and........whether or not many wish to SEE what is happening in front of their face EVERY DAY........it IS HAPPENING. Etc, etc, etc........you can fill in the rest.......as you would EXPECT from someone like ME that is a CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTARIAN.

    So what am I going to do as a long term investor going forward.........NOTHING. There is........nothing..........I can or will do. HOWEVER things turn out............I will continue to be fully invested for the long term. Other than voting...........I have no say or choice in anything. I will RIDE THE WINDS.......wherever they take me for as long as I can. I will HOPE to be able to do a better job of handling what I am given than the average investor. I will simply deal with what I am given.......and.......HOPE that I can do so much more successfully than most people.

    My FOCUS will be EXTREMELY MICRO.....my own family........how or what anyone else does.....that is their problem. I will NOT try to time the markets around the election and I will NOT go to cash before the election. When I say......."very quickly becoming a Socialist, Authoritarian country".........I mean over the span of about 2-4 years. In the scheme of centuries of history that is EXTREMELY fast. We will get the country and society that we create, vote for, and deserve..........as investors and as the "little people".

    EVEN this post.......I put up here with a WRY SMILE on my face if we were talking face to face. If I was IMMORTAL I might care more. It will be very interesting to watch.
     
    #1755 WXYZ, Aug 7, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TAKE your spam elsewhere.........tech.......reported the above. Hopefully it will be deleted soon.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    SO.......back to our regularly scheduled programing.

    As to the markets today. As an OLD FASHIONED investor.......in my mind.......today we are simply seeing some short term profit taking. We have had a HUGE run up this week and over the past week or two. People are simply taking some profits. The underlying economy.......the shut down......China......etc, etc, remain the same. If I was a TRADER I might do the same thing.....especially with the BIG TECH stocks and FANG stocks.

    I will NOT be surprised to see us positive by the close today. Considering everything.....the markets are still showing EXTREME STRENGTH in general.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.......in general the markets DID go positive by the close today. GREAT strength in the general stock market averages today. Except for the NASDAQ. BUT....my INTENTIONAL overexposure to the BIG TECH names means that my accounts were NEGATIVE for the day. AND........the SP500 got me back by beating me by .79% today. All in all, not too bad considering how the MEDIA was playing things today with the doom&gloom about China, stimulus package, and the negative headlines about the POSITIVE jobs report.

    Year to date for the SP500.......................+3.75%

    This week the SP500...............................+2.45%

    Pretty BIG gain for just ONE WEEK.......for the SP500.

    DOW.........kicking ass.........at 27,433...........+3.8% for the week.......and.........only DOWN 3.87% year to date. With a couple of good weeks we will see the DOW turn positive for the year.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Markets and investors are to be congratulated for surviving 2nd quarter earnings.........nearly. Next week will be the end of earnings.....except for a few lingering reports the week after. Impact on stocks and funds.......ZERO.

    The POSITIVES are piling up for investors. BUT......the two BIG EVENTS........are still pending in the upcoming months......the election and 3rd quarter earnings.

    S&P nabs longest winning streak in over a year as jobs growth tops expectations

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-aug-7-2020

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks fought off losses in the final hour of trading and the S&P 500 booked its longest winning streak in over a year as better-than-expected jobs growth overshadowed Congressional gridlock on a new COVID-19 relief package and growing tension between the U.S. and China.

    The S&P 500 eked out a fractional gain of 0.06 percent to extend its winning streak to six days, the longest since April 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 47 points, or 0.17 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.87 percent.

    Looking at the economy, U.S. payrolls added 1.763 million workers in July as the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the Labor Department said Friday. Wall Street analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting the addition of 1.6 million jobs to push the unemployment rate down to 10.5 percent.

    Leaders on Capitol Hill remained far apart on a number of key issues for a new COVID-19 relief package hours before Congress was set to recess until Sept. 8.

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called a Democratic proposal to meet in the middle at a package size of $2 trillion a "non-starter." He and Chief of Staff Mark Meadows are expected to recommend President Trump issue executive orders to extend some relief, FOX Business has learned, though how much the White House can accomplish that way is unclear.

    In international news, Trump on Thursday evening issued an executive order stating TikTok, a social media app owned by Chinese tech company ByteDance Ltd. that gathers data from its users, would be banned in 45 days if it is not sold to a U.S. company.

    Chinese companies traded in the U.S., including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent Music, all sank.

    Elsewhere, Apple shares were unable to reach the $467.77 needed for the tech giant to become the world’s second company to reach a $2 trillion market valuation.

    In earnings, Uber Technologies lost $1.78 billion in the three months through June as the COVID-19 pandemic led to its food-delivery service generating more revenue than its ride-sharing business for the first time.

    Zillow reported better-than-expected top- and bottom line results as the work-from-home environment has caused people to rethink their living arrangements. The company, which saw revenue spike 28 percent from a year ago, has resumed its business of buying and selling homes and currently has an inventory of 440.

    Looking at commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 73 cents to $41.40 per barrel while gold dropped to $2,010.10 an ounce. Despite Friday's decline, the precious metal booked its ninth straight week of gains, climbing 2.41 percent.

    U.S. Treasurys slipped, causing the yield on the 10-year note to climb 2.7 basis points to 0.562 percent.

    European markets were higher across the board with Germany’s DAX up 0.66 percent while Britain’s FTSE and France's CAC both saw a fractional gain of 0.09 percent.

    In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led the decline, falling 1.6 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite slid 0.96 percent and Japan’s Nikkei shed 0.39 percent.

    MY COMMENT

    EXACTLY.
     
  20. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Thanks WXYZ. Completed step one and wired moneys to my “dividend” account. Boy o boy o boy, what am I getting myself into here. Just as I finished doing it, my agent sends me this off market property which is just screaming “Possibilities” and I’m salivating over it. But that’s life for ya.. opportunities are endless but you gotta weed them out and go with what makes most budgetary sense to you at the moment.
    And to top it all off I’m reading your latest comment regarding election year and the edge it brings to us as citizens and investors. And yes, this is all too familiar to us here in NY. Many of us are here on edge with what’s gonna happen this year, we got totally screwed with our elected officials here and I hear that from BOTH sides of the isle so there’s no big surprise there.
    Let’s see what happens this weekend and I may just be able to get this project started on Monday bright and early.
    Enjoy the weekend!
     

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