Okay. I have to have a little fun here and point out some very dumb stuff. I notice this morning our little media trolls are doing their usual chatter. I can't pass up this opportunity. Our local media star, FED JP, is back in the news. I didn't realize he ever left their radar actually. FED JP is like the financial medias Taylor Swift at this point. No, he really is. They follow and hang on every little remark and appearance he makes. He is speaking at some event today. I didn't see where or to what group...who cares. Seriously, where else is left to speak at this point and about what? I fully expect his next stop and speaking engagement is going to be at a neighborhood YARD SALE this weekend. I mean...why not? Also, who gets these coverage assignments? Do they draw straws? Is it the biggest dunce in the newsroom? In the article here are some of the little clips. Brace yourself, this is world class journalism you are about to see. "Stock futures hit pause on Wall Street's red-hot run of gains on Wednesday, as investors waited for comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as they assess whether the central bank is done with interest-rate hikes." "Words of caution from several hawkish members of the Fed have put a check on optimism that interest rates have peaked, sapping momentum from the rally in stocks" "The market is now on high alert for what Powell has to say about the Fed's thinking when he speaks at a conference on Wednesday morning — in particular, whether it's winning the battle to cool inflation." Oh...the drama and speculation. Did I miss the emergency broadcast alert? Did my phone sound off an alarm? This is breaking news!! We are now on high alert. This...my fellow investors is what is out there. You just simply can't make this type of stupidity up. We have dealt with this for so long, it just can no longer even be taken seriously. Part of me just wants FED JP to go to one of these events and just say something totally bonkers....you know go off the rails to even see if any of these morons are even paying attention. Could you imagine the freak out they would have???
I like this very short article. A very long-term chart of U.S. stock prices usually going up https://www.tker.co/p/long-term-chart-us-stock-prices-since-1824 (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As we often say here at TKer, the stock market usually goes up. These discussions are usually accompanied by charts of the stock marketgoing back to the 1920s. So I was delighted to see Bank of America analysts share this chart of U.S. stock prices going all the way back to 1820s. “In the long run, stock prices go up.” (Source: BofA) “[A]s this chart illustrates, in the long run, stock prices go up,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote in a research note published on Monday. “$1 invested in U.S. large company stocks in 1824 was worth $16 million in Oct 2023 with dividends reinvested, a stark illustration of the power of compounding and total return.“ The further back you go, the more you run into data quality issues and other issues related to comparability. So I don’t think it’s always helpful to lengthen the X-axis for the sake of going back into ancient history. That said, this super old data nevertheless confirms the observation that the stock market usually goes up." MY COMMENT Over the long term the market direction is strongly positive. Even over a year time period....there is about a 72% chance of positive returns in any one year. Hidden and impossible to see in the chart above.....are all the sensational short term stories......they are irrelevant over the long term.
Alright...to continue. Just because I find it funny. FED JP spoke at The Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference. How fitting. I wonder if this is where they determine the impact of having 5,000 economic reports a month are deemed responsible or worthy?
YES.....it really is this simple. Why market timing doesn’t work: S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just 8 days explain the gains https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/08/mar...14percent-rally-explained-by-just-8-days.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just eight days that explain most of the gains. If you want a simple indication of why market timing is not an effective investment strategy, take a look at the data on the S&P 500 year to date. Nicholas Colas at DataTrek notes that there have only been 11 more up days than down days this year (113 up, 102 down) and yet the S&P 500 is higher by 14% year to date. How to explain that the S&P is up 14% but the number of up days is about the same as the down days? Just saying “there’s been a rally in big cap tech” does not quite do justice to what has been happening. Colas notes there are eight days that can explain the majority of the gains, all of them related to the biggest stories of the year: big tech, the banking crisis, interest rates/Federal Reserve, and avoiding recession: S&P 500: biggest gains this year January 6 +2.3% (weak jobs report) April 27 +2.0% (META/Facebook shares rally on better than expected earnings) January 20 +1.9% (Netflix posts better than expected Q4 sub growth, big tech rallies) November 2 +1.9% (10 year Treasury yields decline after Fed meeting) May 5 +1.8% (Apple earnings strong, banks rally on JP Morgan upgrade) March 16 +1.8% (consortium of large banks placed deposits at First Republic) March 14 +1.6% (bank regulators offered deposit guarantees at SVB and Signature Bank) March 3 +1.6% (10-year Treasury yields drop below 4%) Source: DataTrek The good news: those big issues (big cap tech, interest rates, avoiding recession) “remain relevant now and are the most likely catalysts for a further U.S. equity rally,” Colas says. The bad news: had you not been in the markets on those eight days, your returns would be considerably worse. Why market timing does not work Colas is illustrating a problem that has been known to stock researchers for decades: market timing — the idea that you can predict the future direction of stock prices, and act accordingly — is not a successful investing strategy. Here, Colas is implying that had an investor not been in the market on those eight best days, returns would have been very different. This is not only true for 2023: it is true for every year. In theory, putting money into the market when prices are down, then selling when they are higher, then buying when they are low again, in an infinite loop, is the perfect way to own stocks. The problem is, no one has consistently been able to identify market tops and bottoms, and the cost of not being in the market on the most important days is devastating to a long-term portfolio. I devote a chapter in my book, “Shut Up and Keep Talking: Lessons on Life and Investing from the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange,” to why market timing doesn’t work. Here’s a hypothetical example of an investment in the S&P 500 over 50 years. Hypothetical growth of $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1970 (through August 2019) Total return $138,908 Minus the best performing day $124,491 Minus the best 5 days $90,171 Minus the best 15 days $52,246 Minus the best 25 days $32,763 Source: Dimensional Funds These are amazing statistics. Missing just one day — the best day — in the last 50 years means you are making more than $14,000 less. That is 10% less money — for not being in the market on one day. Miss the best 15 days, and you have 35% less money. You can show this with virtually any year, or any time period. This of course works in reverse: not being in the market on the worst days would have made returns higher. But no one knows when those days will occur. Why is it so difficult to time the market? Because you must be right twice: you must be right going in, and going out. The probability you will be able to make both decisions and beat the market is very small. This is why indexing and staying with the markets has been slowly gaining adherents for the past 50 years. The key to investing is not market timing: it is consistent investing, and understanding your own risk tolerance." MY COMMENT If I had to boil all investing down to a single concept it would be that you have to be fully invested all the time. Of course that assumes that your investment picks are rational and reasonable. The most simple way to be an investing GENIUS......simply invest in the SP500 Index. This forces you to own the 500 greatest companies in the world. if you do this and stay fully invested all the time....you will routinely beat all your friends that are trying to be the next great trader. AND....to juice those returns....you simply have to reinvest all capital gains and dividends. This gets you the power of compounding.
Time to sit and let the markets mature into the day. I am expecting a positive close today......after all....we deserve it.
So I like the posts above with the long term chart showing the overall positive movement of the market over the long haul. Also, the little article which breaks down the "best days" over a long period. Those two things strip away all of the noise. The thing to remember is that it also includes all of the noise. All of the stuff that people freak out about, all of the media circus, the unrelenting negativity is all there. But it looks different. It's not that those things did not occur, but over a period of time it works out. When we are in the thick of a bear market or any rough patch....it always seems worse. I am not dismissing those times, we all have been through them. They are not pleasant. Some can even be downright scary at times. I still say, as a long term investor you have to have a good dose of optimism. You just have to. I'm not talking about just having rose colored glasses all of the time either, but you have to strike a reasonable balance. Develop a plan that helps you stick to it and move forward. We were never promised an easy ride, it is just part of it.
As most have figured out that frequent this thread I try to counter balance the negative media and all of the noise long term investors are subjected to. The reason....it simply does not matter over a long investing period. All it is good for is building up anxious feelings and emotions. Those are the kryptonite to any long term plan. The thing is, as investors we already experience and have knowledge about many of the things they crow about. We do not live under a rock. Things like interest rates, inflation, dumb policy makers, global issues, and on and on. We see it when we go to the grocery store, getting a loan, looking for a house, planning vacations, buying anything, or some obscure great idea passed into law. We know and experience these things all throughout our lives. Someone screaming about it daily on the tv or on the web doesn't change any of it. What it does though, is it seeps into your daily life even more. That is all you see and hear to the point you may begin to pay more attention to it than you really should. Now, we obviously shouldn't go through it all with our head buried in the sand either. We can be aware without losing our minds about it. I often say and repeat....Control what you can control. Things such as our everyday budget, investment planning, and how it is structured. Yes, those things above can effect what we are doing, spending, and saving. It has since the beginning as far back as you want to go. There is always something out there to fret about....there will be later too. The point in long term investing is to find a plan that works for you....over the long haul. Something you are comfortable with through thick and thin. Some in this thread do a mix of different things. Some hold individual stocks and funds. Some hold index funds, some probably do both or maybe even one or the other....a combination of things. You have to be comfortable with it. Your risk tolerance and what you are willing to commit to for the long term. As life goes on there will likely be changes and adjustments, but likely not drastic changes. Your commitment to fund the plan regularly and in a disciplined manner will make a bigger difference in the end than anything you will ever read about or hear the pundits screaming about. The enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
I am still in the green at this moment. We are seeing what happens often....mid morning weakness. I have some good gains but three stocks in the red right now....COST, HON, and AMZN.
Yes....the key to long term investing success is finding what works for you and doing it over, and over, and over....for as long as it works. At the same time you need to evaluate your definition of success once in a while. If you see.....for example....that your definition of investing success means that you are regularly under-performing a broad index....like the SP500...perhaps you need to adjust your thinking so that you can at least hit the average....uncontrolled...returns of a big index. Investors and humans in general.....have infinite capacity to fool themselves......and rationalize sub-par performance. And the markets being inanimate, and having no remorse, or empathy or emotion.....will always tell you if you are successful or not....as long as you are willing to look and accept the truth. Most of us that post on here are successful investors. That is a rare thing.....but it does not need to be. It is not like it takes some special talent to be a great investor. The key is recognition of the power of time and money and being fully invested to capture all the market gains. The key is......also.....having the courage to fight against all the doubts and behaviors that your brain will try to impose on you.
I find it amazing that this little seven day rally is the longest win streak for the SP500 since 2021. As Smokie pointed out.....if you simply look at a long term chart....the SP500 for example....it is impossible to see any of the short term events and shocking news items in that chart. It all smooths out and disappears over the longer term. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ead-water-after-weeklong-rally-144038870.html In fact.......as dismal as last year was for most investors.....it is already mostly erased from a longer term SP500 chart. If I look at a chart of the SP500 and results for 5 days to 3 years......that horrible year last year is hardly viable.
Okay, today must be dumb news day. Seriously. Here is a sure sign we are in the end times...throw the towel in fellas....it is over. The headline below. US gas consumption to dip next year amid high inflation, remote work trend: government study. "OH...MY...GAWD....YA'LL!!!" (shouting as one runs out of the room...hair on fire...in panic.) No, I did not link the joke of an article. This must be the guy/gal that is also covering the YARD SALE conference by FED JP story too. I mean this little story covers it all. Inflation, gas prices, remote workers....and a government study about it to back it up. Hey, at least the government is concentrating on the real issues of our time. I mean this is the ONE thing the taxpayers really needed them to get to the bottom of. We have all been wondering about this. I don't know about you....but this puts my mind at ease having this knowledge now. To think that we might enter 2024 without this...
HEY.....all the gas stations around me are now at $2.69 per gallon. Who would have thought this possible when the price of oil was being hyped a few weeks ago.
i had a good day in the markets today......another nice gain considering the markets. I had five of eight stocks up today. Those in the red were....COST, HON, and AMZN. They were in the red for me all day. I also got in yet anotheer beat on the SP500 today by 0.35%. Can you believe......we are UP now for eight days in a row.
Here is the close today. S&P 500 gains for an eighth straight day, builds on longest win streak in 2 years https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 gained for an eighth consecutive day on Wednesday, extending its longest win streak in two years. The broad market index added 0.1% to finish at 4,382.78, while the Nasdaq Composite inched up 0.08% to end at 13,650.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 40.33 points, or 0.12%, to close at 34,112.27. “The market is starting to set up for the Fed moving to the sidelines, and we may get a soft landing,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. “Equities were really oversold for the last couple of months, and they’re finally seeing a little bit of a rebound.” While upcoming inflation and economic prints will likely factor into equity gains from here, data continues to signal that the economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff, he added. In other news, the tail end of earnings season pressed on. Rivian slipped 2.4% even after posting better-than-expected results, while Robinhood sank 14.3% after posting significant declines in trading volumes. Warner Bros. Discovery sank nearly 19% for its worst day since March 2021, after posting a wider-than-expected loss. Roblox popped 11.8% on strong results. With Wednesday’s gains, the S&P is up 4.5% for November, while the Nasdaq’s jumped 6.2%. The Dow is up 3.2% for the month. It snapped its best win streak since July. These gains come as earnings season winds down. About 88% of companies in the broad-based index have posted results, with more than 88% beating earnings estimates. Slowing demand, however, has translated to only 62% topping revenue expectations, with some companies offering cautious outlooks. The season continues after the bell with results from Walt Disney, Affirm Holdings and MGM Resorts. Wall Street is also looking ahead to upcoming commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This, coupled with the earnings picture, and next week’s consumer price index, could serve as the next major catalysts for equities, said AXS Investments CEO Greg Bassuk. “Those are all positive points of data for the Fed, with respect to its desire to get inflation closer to that 2% level,” he said." MY COMMENT What an EPIC earnings season. With at least 88% of all reports in.......a HUGE, 88%.....of all reporting companies are BEATING expectations. This blows away the historic average. Notice how most of the media is mute on this achievement for American business. I love it.
There is absolutely ZERO reason for this little rally to end. I have high expectations for the rally to continue for the next couple of days to the end of the week.
I figured we were doing pretty good based on some of the company reports I had been looking at and posting. Those percentages just kept getting better when I would try to find it. A lot of companies have done really, really well. Of course we all remember back during and after the shutdown era. They basically predicted earnings were going to be in the basement then. What I found compelling back then, was just how amazingly resilient most of the companies were. They didn't put up the type of numbers we are seeing now, but they actually proved their toughness. It was a great example of tough people managing tough times. A lot of companies have navigated a challenging environment then and now. They have clearly delivered for those that have stuck with them.
They have been predicting bad earnings for about TEN QUARTERS now....if not more. they have been wrong about 100% of the time....it defies all probability to be wrong that often and that much.
I missed the open. I was dealing with a furnace repair person. it is always something. BUT....I see that we are looking about as I would expect with all the big averages up modestly.....except the DOW which I dont care about. A good start to the day.
LOL.....this is quick. Nvidia plans to release three new chips for China - local media https://www.reuters.com/technology/...three-new-chips-china-local-media-2023-11-09/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "SHANGHAI, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Nvidia (NVDA.O) is planning to release three new chips for China, local media reported on Thursday, weeks after the U.S. blocked it from selling two high-end artificial intelligence (AI) chips and one of its top gaming chips to Chinese firms. The STAR Market Daily news outlet, citing people familiar with the matter, said that the chips are called the HGX H20, L20 PCIe and L2 PCIe and that Nvidia could announce them on Nov. 16 at the earliest. Nvidia declined to comment when asked about the report. Last month, the U.S. AI chip giant said new export restrictions announced by Washington would block it from selling two of its modified advanced AI chips - the A800 and H800 - both of which were created for the Chinese market last year to comply with previous export rules. One of the company's top-of-the-line gaming chips, the L40S chip, which it announced in August, would also be affected, it said. On Oct. 24, Nvidia said those curbs would take immediate effect, as U.S. regulators had sped up an original deadline. Nvidia has commanded more than 90% share of China's $7 billion AI chip market, and analysts have said the U.S. curbs are likely to create opportunities for domestic firms such as Huawei Technologies (HWT.UL) to make inroads. Chinese internet giant Baidu (9888.HK) placed a sizeable order for Huawei AI chips this year, sources have said. One said Baidu had done so before the U.S. curbs were announced as it was preparing for a future when it would no longer be able to purchase from Nvidia." MY COMMENT I trust private business to be more nimble than government.
