I had a good day to end the week today....a good medium gain with only two stocks down today. The down holdings were...COST which reports next week and GOOGL. I also got in a Friday beat of the SP500 today by 0.32%. Another good productive week.
ANOTHER.....good week for the continued BULL MARKET. DOW year to date +9.39% DOW five days +0.44% SP500 year to date +20.40% SP500 five days +0.88% NASDAQ 100 year to date +48.07% NASDAQ 100 five days +1.56% NASDAQ year to date +30.93% NASDAQ five days +0.72% RUSSELL year to date +7.39% RUSSELL five days +1.24% A KILLER week for the averages.....kind of a stealth week. As for my entire account I now sit at +41.07% year to date. Last week on Friday I was at +39.85%. So this week I increased my year to date gain by 1.22%.
The BULL MARKET continues to plow ahead against all obstacles.....often in stealth mode. Typical. S&P 500 notches new high for 2023 Friday, on six-week hot streak after solid economic data: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 rose on Friday to hit a new high for the year after the November jobs report and University of Michigan consumer survey data signaled a resilient economy and cooling inflation, fueling hopes for a so-called soft landing scenario. The S&P 500 added 0.41% to settle at 4,604.37, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45% to finish at 14,403.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 130.49 points, or 0.36%, to end at 36,247.87. The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year last week, but had yet to exceed its 2023 intraday high set in July until Friday, when it topped 4,609 in afternoon trading. The benchmark is now up about 20% on the year and trading at its highest level back to March 2022. All the major averages finished the week with gains. The broad market index jumped 0.2% for the period, and the Dow finished marginally higher. Both indexes wrapped six winning weeks, their longest run since 2019. The Nasdaq advanced 0.7%. The jobs report continues to portray an economy that “isn’t on the brink of recession,” while the combination of falling inflation expectations and a pick up in consumer sentiment support a soft landing outcome, said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “As long as the soft landing outcome stays intact, the bias for stocks and risk assets remains positive,” he said, noting that inflation coming down, as well as better labor supply-and-demand balance without a major uptick in unemployment are all positives for sentiment. November’s nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. The jobless rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% the prior month. It was expected to remain the same. The economy added 199,000 jobs, slightly ahead of the 190,000 estimate from Dow Jones and well ahead of the 150,000 jobs added in October. The data first raised concerns that the economy was running too hot for inflation to cool enough for the Fed to start retreating from its high-rates policy. Some traders expect the Fed to start cutting rates as early as next spring, with its latest policy meeting set for Wednesday. On the other hand, the monthly jobs report could also support the notion that the Fed is guiding the U.S. economy toward a soft landing — a steady economic recovery amid falling inflation. Average hourly earnings, seen as a leading indicator of inflation, rose about as expected in November as the economy added more jobs than the prior month. Meanwhile, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations drop and consumer sentiment jump in December to it highest level since July. These data points all help support the thesis that the Fed is likely done with its rate hiking cycle, said Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist. Shares of Boeing, FedEx, and Costco hit new highs for the year on Friday as investors bet the economy would skirt a recession." MY COMMENT A very good week for the SP500. I cant believe all the discussion about "recession" above. NO....we are not anywhere near a recession. By the time one happens it will not be due to anything happening now.
How do you gents explain to your partners, after a big up week, that you are nearly certain your portfolio is going to go down in the short term and you are better off to not sell anything? What do you tell someone who wants to know why you don't sell when you are 90% confident your portfolio is at a short term peak? This isn't a big problem for us. I have free reign but I also don't share when we have had a really good week, like we just had.
So, between my account and the ones I set up for my kids: AAPL HD MSFT HON PG NKE COST GOOG I keep thinking about dumping nike which is why I asked. It just hasn't done well over the few years I've had it, I still don't understand how they aren't making better profits after they made this big push into their own stores and like selling direct to customer... and I agree 1000% they need to focus on selling shoes and sportswear and less on saving the world. I'm surprised about honeywell coming out of your list though (and a little worried bc I'm still holding that also.) I will probably pick up some NVDA at some point.
Looks like great minds think alike.....Mizugori. In fact If I was going to add a company PG would be near the top of my list. In fact, some time when I have a little extra money to invest I will take a look at it. It has been a while since I owned it but I do believe it is one of the best old school GIANTS that made the transition to the modern tech world very nicely. Their products are an ICONIC list. I see them as a very SOLID anchor for a portfolio that is heavy on the tech side. I sold NKE and HON due to the fact that their performance for some time has been substandard. As to NIKE I just dont see much hope for their management to focus ONLY on business. Their plan to get out of retail is a real head scratchier to me.....and....has not gone well. A great company and business that is being totally screwed over by management and company culture. As to HON....their performance has not been great this year and over the past five years they are only +42%. Over that same time the SP500 is +77%. They were the holding in my account that was most recently added.....I cant remember when I bought it....perhaps 3-4 years ago? Bottom line for both NKE and HON.....I felt like I could do better simply putting that money to work in the SP500. I am sure you know.....I also have two funds in my account......SP500 Index Fund and Fidelity Contra Fund. When I sold each of those two stocks the money immediately was reinvested. So I consider it simply a lateral move......I want market money to stay in the markets all the time. If you are considering NVDA......and need funds to do so....you can always consider selling some HON and/or NKE to fund the purchase.........NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE....simply an observation.
I post this.....not because I care, I dont....but to show why I NEVER trust or care about this sort of data. It is just a joke. Why would I care as an investor what people....."feel"....about the economy? Chart of the Week: Pessimistic consumers are suddenly feeling better https://finance.yahoo.com/news/char...rs-are-suddenly-feeling-better-110026806.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Friday’s consumer sentiment index, out from the University of Michigan, showed a 13% jump in how people feel about the economy, surprising investors with this positivity. Four months of pessimism have been erased in one fell swoop. To consumers, it feels like summer. Or last August anyway. The report said that this good mood is “primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation.” It’s not the only sign of an often pessimistic cohort putting a smile on. Last week’s Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board showed a wave of optimism rolled through in November, snapping a three-month decline. Higher prices, wars, and rates had led consumer concerns. And The Conference Board found these increases in optimism were largely driven by the 55-plus age group. Which speaks to one of the great things about these surveys: You don’t really have to wonder why. People are suddenly feeling good about inflation and where it’s heading, which has been the 2023 bugaboo for both Fed Chair Jay Powell and pretty much anybody who buys things — also known as consumers. Friday’s report, on this count, also offered some notable optimism. Consumers now expect prices to rise next year at the slowest pace in two years, and inflation over the long run is expected to rise by the least since 2011. Randomly surveyed consumers pulling numbers out of their heads may not seem meaningful. But Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve understand that these are the very people who both buy stuff and set the prices. And their declining pessimism on these bases will very much be noted by the central bank.' MY COMMENT NO....I dont care about......"randomly surveyed consumers pulling numbers out of their heads".
You know, mine doesn't take too much interest in the investment side of our portfolio. At least not the management of it. That has always been left up to me. Now, making plans for future trips from that money...well she has an interest in that part of it. . I have on occasion seen or read stories where one partner "thought" the other was taking care of things, only to later find out that person had been trading like a maniac and losing money meant for a secure retirement. Managing money like a hobby. Doing dumb or overly risky type things instead. I could not imagine the betrayed feeling of trust over something like that. I have always made a rule to be a good steward of that trust and money.
Some good discussion on the portfolio's and holdings above. I always find it interesting. I can't help but go back down memory lane sometimes when I see some particular holdings mentioned....PG, KO, and so on. I have held both of those at one point years ago. There have been times when I would drift back and think that I should have kept them. I am old fashioned and perhaps too nostalgic at times. Even when I was a very young man, friends would often say I had an "old soul." During my portfolio clean-up and simplifying things those went out the door. Honestly, it was kind of hard to do and mainly for the reasons above. But when I cleared away the emotions and evaluated it from strictly an investment point...away they went. The index was simply beating them over the longer term and I wanted to declutter a bit for later down the road. This is not to say that either of them or any holding for that matter might serve a good purpose in ones plan. I enjoy seeing those discussions here and the differences in why one does what they do. We have a wide range of different long termers with different companies and reasons. As it should be....investing is a personal choice and should be built around what you want to do.
At to Tom's question. At my age and actually throughout life.....I have kept my spouse very up to date on investing and investing results. Since women tend to outlive men....I consider it important for her to know as much as possible about investing. My message to her.....if I am gone....do not change anything. OR....if you feel the need to not deal with individual stocks....sell them and put EVERYTHING into the SP500 Index Fund.
Regrading NIKE for anyone that holds it. This is an interesting article from their........"home".......newspaper in Portland Oregon. It has some good data and info for investors about their current issues and other issues. Not necessarily positive info. A pretty good article that touches on many issues currently being experienced by the company. Nike layoffs raise questions, but answers remain elusive https://www.oregonlive.com/business...ise-questions-but-answers-remain-elusive.html
Ok I am going all out.......I DOUBLE DOG DARE THE FED TO DO ANOTHER RATE HIKE. If they do....they are going to end up with their tongue stuck to a lamp pole.
Good news.......more.....free money on the way from government.....if this passes. WELL.....actually not free money.....just allowing "YOU" to keep more of "YOUR" money. Temporary Tax Plan Could Boost Your Standard Deduction By Up to $4,000 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/temporary-tax-plan-could-boost-194758604.html Seems like the prefect little year end gift to the "little people" from government. Actually a vote buying scheme......but....I will take it all day long. Anything I can get out of the government is fine with me. GIVE ME THE MONEY.
I was looking at COSTCO today. They are all set up for two events that will be great for shareholders......if or when......they happen. First is a membership fee increase. They are right at the point where one could happen any time now. Since they report next week and we are near year end, it would be a logical time for them to do a fee increase. In addition...... it has been some time since the last fee hike and they are right at the point where they usually do one. Since a whopping.....FIFTY FOUR PERCENT.....of their profit comes from membership fees this would be GREAT news for shareholders. Second the stock is at $610 per share......which I believe is an all time high. It is ripe for a SPLIT. Although......I dont see anyone talking about this in the media or anywhere else. So what I am now saying is simply my opinion and....."feeling". BUT....I would not be surprised to see a split announced some time soon perhaps shortly following the earnings report next week. COSTCO....one of the best managed companies out there.
The week to start tomorrow. Inflation and the Fed: What to watch https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-and-the-fed-what-to-watch-153602454.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The last two major macro events of 2023 will greet investors in the week ahead. November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report out Tuesday morning will offer the last piece of the inflation puzzle ahead of the Federal Reserve's final policy announcement of the year, due out Wednesday afternoon. A press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a new set of economic forecasts from Fed officials for the coming years will also highlight the proceedings on Wednesday. Producer prices out Wednesday morning, retail sales set for release on Thursday, and a look at US manufacturing activity on Friday also highlight the economic calendar. On the corporate side events should be relatively sparse, with quarterly updates from Costco (COST), Adobe (ADBE), and Lennar (LEN) serving as the week's biggest names to report. Markets enter the week with serious momentum, as all three major US stock market indexes have finished the last six weeks with gains. For the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is up more than 9% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up nearly 20%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained nearly 38%. The S&P 500 is now less than 5% away from its record closing high. Fed on hold At 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the Fed will announce its final policy decision of the year, with markets pricing in a near 100% chance the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25%-5.50% to cap 2023. Alongside this policy decision Fed officials will release an updated Summary of Economic Projections, which includes its "dot plot" that maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future. Forecasts on inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment will also be released. Powell's press conference is slated to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET, with investors keen to hear how the Fed chair balances investor expectations that interest rates could begin falling as early as March. The last time Powell spoke publicly, on Dec. 1, he called the rate cut speculation "premature." "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease," Powell said on Dec. 1 in prepared remarks at Spelman College in Atlanta. "We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so." Investors will be watching to see if any recent data — notably the November jobs report and Tuesday's inflation reading — sways how the central bank discusses the path forward for policy. The assembled press Powell will field questions from on Wednesday will be sure to prod the Fed chair for answers about the central bank's next move lower. But JPMorgan chief economist Michael Feroli doesn't think Powell will engage in the rate cutting discussion. "At the press conference we think Powell will try to move the conversation away from the timing of the first ease by noting that currently the Committee is only considering whether they should stay on hold or tighten policy," Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday. Michael Pearce, lead US economist at Oxford economics, also sees Wednesday's press conference skewing slightly hawkish, indicating a bias from Powell and the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. "We expect the updated economic projections and the post-meeting press conference to push back against the idea that rate cuts could come onto the agenda anytime soon, emphasizing that inflation is still too strong and that risks are to the upside," Pearce wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. "If anything, we expect policymakers to err on the side of leaving rates too high for too long." Inflation progress in focus The day before the Fed's announcement, investor attention will be focused on inflation when November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast headline CPI rose 3.1% over the prior year in November, a decrease from the 3.2% rise seen in October. Prices are set to be flat on a monthly basis for the second straight month. On a "core" basis, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories, CPI is forecast to rise 4% over last year in November, unchanged from the increase seen a month prior. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation. Monthly core price increases are expected to clock in at 0.3%, an uptick from the 0.2% month-over-month increase seen in October. "Similar to last month, we expect a drag on headline [inflation] from falling energy prices with upward pressure remaining on the core segment from components like [owner's equivalent rents]/rents, insurance, and car maintenance as well as other services," Jefferies' economics team led by Thomas Simons wrote in a note on Friday. Tuesday's report will offer investors the first look at inflation in November after data in October showed both core CPI and core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, reached the lowest levels of annual inflation since September and April of 2021, respectively." MY COMMENT I really dont expect anything from the FED or the economic data this week. My only real interest is in the COSTCO earnings. My....."feeling"....about the markets......another UP week.
From the article above. "a new set of economic forecasts from Fed officials for the coming years" I say....LOL. That's it. Everything you need to know about the future economy, all wrapped up with a tidy little bow. If it was only that easy. This is why you see so much BS in the media reference the markets. They stoke their own fires and fears.
A skittish open today for the big cap tech stocks. The SP500 just turned green....the NASDAQ is mildly (-0.19%) negative. There is simply no reason for the negative open in the NASDAQ and the SP500. I have looked and there is....nothing. Therefore, I simply attribute it to FED week and the CPI and other data that will come out this week. SO......we have two primary explanations. First possibility is.....the insiders on Wall Street have advance knowledge of some of the data. GASP........NO.....tell me this could not happen. Is this true.....I have no idea and really dont care. Second possibility......this is simply a random, irrational, minor market freak out.....with no basis in reality or rationality. I tend to lean toward number two. Stock market news today: Stocks tread water with CPI data, Fed on the horizon https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...th-cpi-data-fed-on-the-horizon-123253909.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were little changed on Monday morning, signaling a muted start to a week packed with a crucial inflation update and the Federal Reserve's last policy decision of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose just above the flatline, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged down about 0.2%. Tech stocks led the way lower, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) shedding almost 0.5%. The cautious mood comes as investors brace for two events that could set the tone for stocks going into 2024: November's reading on consumer inflation and the Fed's interest rate decision. Jobs data on Friday bolstered hopes the Fed could score a "soft landing" for a US economy burdened with historically high borrowing costs. That helped the gauges closed out their sixth straight week of wins, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending at their highest levels since early 2022. Now the focus is shifting to the Consumer Price Index data due Tuesday, which could put that optimism to the test. Signs of cooling in inflation have cemented expectations that the Fed will put a pause on rate hikes this week, while bets are growing for a rate cut before the summer. In individual corporates, Macy's (M) shares surged 16% in premarket trading after getting a $5.8 billion buyout offer. The store chain’s board is considering the bid to take it private, a source told Yahoo Finance." MY COMMENT Not much going to happen this week.....in reality. The FED is not going to do anything. As to the economic data.....I dont expect any shocking results to pop up at this time. AND....just for fun....NO, there is not going to be a recession........and.....NO there will probably not be any rate cuts any time soon. No matter how much people FLOG these topics they are not going to happen any time soon. This stuff is laughable.
By the way....in spite of the fearful open today......I do expect that reality will take hold as the day progresses so I say there is a good....."probability"....that all the major averages including the NASDAQ will be green by tthe close....probably by about mid to late morning as we outrun the negativity of the opening trades. In other words.....same old, same old.
