For owners of Costco stock. Costco to Pay Special Dividend of $15 Per Share: What You Need to Know https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-pay-special-dividend-15-230100685.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "We knew it was coming. We just didn't know when. Costco (NASDAQ: COST) Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti's rhetoric in recent earnings calls, when asked about whether the company would pay out another special dividend, has been that it's "probably a question of when, not if." The day has finally come. Costco announced on Thursday it would pay a special cash dividend of $15 per share on Jan. 12, 2024 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on Dec. 28. This, of course, is on top of the quarterly dividend the company has already committed to. The news of Costco's special dividend builds on an upbeat quarterly financial update released on Thursday. The report, which featured double-digit year-over-year earnings-per-share growth, highlighted the membership-based wholesale warehouse's resilience, even in a challenging macroeconomic environment. Costco's dividend history This will be Costco's fifth-ever special dividend. Previous special dividends were paid in 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020 in the amounts of $7, $5, $7, and $10, respectively. This makes the company's 2024 special dividend of $15 its largest, by far. To fund this dividend, Costco will pay an aggregate amount of $6.7 billion to shareholders. Unlike many of its peers, Costco operates its business with a significant net cash position. This means its interest expense is extremely low, which helps the company keep its cost structure low to pass those savings onto members. At the end of its just-reported fiscal first quarter, Costco had about $7 billion of debt and nearly $18 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. So there's plenty of cash to spare. Costco also notably pays a meaningful, growing quarterly dividend of $1.02. The company's most recent hike came in at a double-digit rate of 12%. Support for a high stock price A robust special dividend comes at a good time for shareholders. The stock has soared nearly 40% year to date, giving the stock a somewhat pricey valuation. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is now in the forties. Fortunately, a special dividend and double-digit growth in earnings per share help support this high valuation. Speaking of Costco's earnings, the company's fiscal first-quarter revenue and earnings per share both came in higher than analysts' estimates. Total revenue of $57.8 billion was up from $54.4 billion in the year-ago quarter, beating analysts' average forecast for revenue of $57.7 billion. Earnings per share of $3.58 (up 17% year over year) was also higher than a consensus estimate of $3.42. Sales in the quarter were helped by growing demand for the company's groceries and essentials. But strong growth in membership fees also helped. Membership fee revenue rose more than 8%, outpacing net sales growth by 2 percentage points. Altogether, Costco's results offer a strong reminder of why the company's shares are worth a high premium. This is especially true ahead of a likely membership fee increase in the near future. Just as management has hinted at a special dividend, it's also hinted that a membership fee increase is up for consideration. Indeed, it wouldn't be surprising to see Costco raise the prices of its memberships in 2024." MY COMMENT OK......ramp up the membership fee increase. And....after that a stock split.
Today is the opposite of yesterday. I was down while the markets were UP. Today....I am up big while the markets in general are down. At least the DOW and SP500. COSTCO......WOW. Up by $23 or +3.68%. That is a HUGE gain for an old school retail company.
Oh, brother. You have got to be kidding me. Now we are going to have rate cut doubts? Stocks mixed as rate cut doubts set in https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ixed-as-rate-cut-doubts-set-in-120717052.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks opened in mixed territory Friday, with the Dow pulling back slightly even as the prospect of deeper and earlier interest-rate cuts continued to buoy Wall Street's spirits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked down 0.2%, or about 75 points, after the blue-chip index closed at a fresh all-time high Thursday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also moved down 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.2%. Markets rejoiced after the Federal Reserve's surprise shift in tone to dovish this week, as it signaled more rate cuts in 2024 and acknowledged its anti-inflation campaign is gaining traction. That has helped drive a record-setting rally in US stocks, and the major indexes have posted six winning sessions in a row. But the ebullient mood may start to fade, as some observers caution that markets could be getting ahead of themselves. New York Fed President John Williams told CNBC in an interview Friday that talk of rate cuts is "premature." And in contrast to the Fed's recent signaling, central banks in Europe discouraged hopes for an easing of policy. Meanwhile, some $5 trillion in US stock options are set to expire on Friday, 80% in S&P 500-linked contracts. The largest such expiration in at least 20 years could keep a lid on any pullback, some analysts believe. Elsewhere, oil ticked higher, on track for its first weekly win since October and boosted by a Fed-fueled fall in the dollar. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures traded at almost $72 a barrel, while Brent crude futures (BZ=F) changed hands at about $77 a barrel, after rising more than 4% in the previous two sessions." MY COMMENT Of course this is triggered by....you guessed it....a FED member. This is CRAZY. The insanity of the short term.
Here you go......read this if you want to torture yourself. Fed’s John Williams says the central bank isn’t ‘really talking about rate cuts right now’ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/15/fed...really-talking-about-rate-cuts-right-now.html MORONS.
The ONLY real story today. 10-year Treasury yield slips, adds to this week’s steep decline https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/15/us-treasury-yields-investors-digest-interest-rate-outlook.html "The 10-year Treasury note yield slipped Friday, adding to its sharp downturn this week, as traders brace for possible Federal Reserve rate cuts next year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 2 basis points to 3.914%. It had fallen below the 4% level for the first time since August on Thursday, reaching its lowest level since July" MY COMMENT The yield is even lower now......3.902%.
Speaking of.....morons. Yellen says China's economic practices 'unfair,' encourages healthy competition with US Janet Yellen encouraged China to 'shift away' from their current economic policy https://www.foxbusiness.com/politic...ices-unfair-encourages-healthy-competition-us "The PRC deploys unfair economic practices, from non-market tools, to barriers to access for foreign firms, to coercive actions against American companies," Yellen said, at the US-China Business Council's 50th anniversary dinner in Washington D.C on Thursday evening. "These policies harm American workers and firms."" MY COMMENT Brilliant. Where has she been for the past 25 years? This deserves the most massive......DUH.....possible.
You know it is kind of comical. The one thing that is predictable...financial media. Notice how a week or so ago, they were the ones parroting "rate cuts" and so on. They brought out guests to speak about it ad nauseum. Now, they dig around into their long list of shysters and bring out an opposite narrative and act like it was somebody else who had the idea all along. They have done this with just about everything. They bring out pundits to tell us when the market is to rally, when it is to fall, what to buy, what to sell, and on and on. Of course all of it is subject to change within a day or two, sometimes within the same day. I keep waiting for them to announce things down to the exact date and second something should occur. It does bring some entertainment though.
Ignoring the markets. My little area of 4200 homes......a massive dip in inventory to the lowest level I can remember. Only 26 homes actively for sale. A neighborhood of 4200 homes that is basically unavailable.
Wow. She is sharp. That is the problem with folks in these positions. They simply repeat what a vast majority already know. They travel around on these speaking tours across the globe stating the obvious. No, No. Your position is TO DO something about it.
Well, off to spread some holiday cheer to some of the local business. I've got to get to work on my Christmas list....time is running out.
No wonder all the big averages are now positive......Smokie is out there shopping to support the Santa Claus Rally. I have a very good gain so far today. Only a single stock down right now.....AAPL. And that loss is so small i would guess that it will turn positive some time today before the close.
Speaking of COSTCO lately. Costco sold more than $100 million in gold bars last quarter https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/15/costco-sold-more-than-100-million-in-gold-bars-last-quarter.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Costco CFO Richard Galanti said Costco sold more than $100 million in gold bars during its most recent quarter. The 1-ounce bars typically sellout within a few hours after they are loaded to Costco’s website, Galanti said back in September. Customers are limited to two bars per Costco membership. They are non-refundable. Costcco has found a new hit with online shoppers — gold. The retail warehousing giant sold more than $100 million of the precious metal in its first quarter, which ended Nov. 26, Costco CFO Richard Galanti told analysts during the company’s earnings call Thursday. The 1-ounce bars typically sellout within a few hours after they are loaded to Costco’s website, Galanti said back in September. The PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan series appeared to be unavailable Friday. Gold enthusiasts on Reddit said the bars were going for slightly more than $2,000 as recently as last week. Customers are limited to two bars per Costco membership, which would make it difficult to build a real position in the precious metal. Members generally seemed satisfied with their purchase though, with a 4.9 star rating on Costco’s website with nearly 800 reviews. Some customers did complain about stiff state sales taxes. Spot gold prices have jumped about 12% this year. JPMorgan is forecasting a breakout rally for the precious metal in 2024 with a peak of $2,300 an ounce as interest rates are expected to fall, according to the bank’s commodities outlook published earlier this month. The investment bank said gold could retreat to $1,900 an ounce in the coming months, but that would set investors up to position themselves for the midyear rally. Gold is on pace for a weekly gain on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled three rate cuts are in store for 2024. The precious metal was trading at $2,036.19 an ounce Friday morning. One important note on Costco’s gold bars: They are non-refundable." MY COMMENT Management at this company is GENIUS.
Here is a Costco item for Zukodany. From Mickey Mantle to Tom Brady: Costco is now selling rare sports memorabilia https://www.silive.com/business/202...o-is-now-selling-rare-sports-memorabilia.html Looks way overpriced to me at $250,000 and only being PSA 4. I can buy this card at PSA 4 with no autograph at an average price of about $13,000 to $16,000. The autograph does add some good value......but.....come on. If it was me I would put this money into a PSA 7 or if I was lucky an 8.....rather than go for the autograph. BUT.....I am not a card collector....so I really dont know the market.
A good day today and a hefty gain for me. I had six of seven stocks up today....led by NVDA and COST. I also beat the SP500 today by 1.43%. A killer week for me and the markets. LOVE....the Santa Rally.
How did we do this week? Amazing. DOW year to date +12.58% DOW five days +2.90% SP500 year to date +23.41% SP500 five days +2.74% NASDAQ 100 year to date +53.03% NASDAQ 1100 five days +3.45% NASDAQ year to date +41.54% NASDAQ five days +2.85% RUSSELL year to date +13.39% RUSSELL year to date +5.61% BIG gains in the averages this week. We are piling up the gains as we push toward year end. The NASDAQ 100 IS UP AN AMAZING 53% YEAR TO DATE. My data for the week.....I am now up by +44.12% year to date for my entire portfolio. Last week I was at +41.07% year to date. An improvement this week by 3.05%.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. LETS COME BACK ON MONDAY READY TO KICK OFF THE FINAL TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.
We are going to finish out 2023 in style. Dow hits record high as stocks cap longest weekly winning streak since 2017 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ekly-winning-streak-since-2017-181200723.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Propelled by a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve, the Dow finished the week at a record high as US stocks capped their longest weekly winning streak since 2017. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked up by about 0.2%, or about 60 points, earning the the blue-chip index another record finish. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was virtually unchanged, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained roughly 0.4%. Markets rejoiced after the Federal Reserve's shift in tone this week as the central bank signaled more rate cuts in 2024 than previously forecast and acknowledged its anti-inflation campaign is gaining traction. That helped drive a rally in US stocks with the Dow reaching a record and the major indexes posting a seventh-straight winning week. Some observers caution that markets could be getting ahead of themselves on the Fed's plans, with New York Fed President John Williams telling CNBC in an interview Friday that talk of rate cuts is "premature." Away from Friday's moves in the stock market oil ticked higher, logging its first weekly win since October. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures settled just below at $72 a barrel while Brent crude futures (BZ=F) changed hands at about $77 a barrel. Oil price had gained more than 4% in the previous two sessions as the dollar weakened. The price of gold also finished the week above $2,000 an ounce after reaching a record earlier in the week." MY COMMENT What is unmentioned above is where the Ten Year Treasury is.......3.913%. Seven weeks in a row.....UP....for all the big averages. In hindsight quite a RALLY. And.....in hindsight quite a SANTA CLAUS RALLY. I dont see much standing in the way of making this NINE weeks in a row by year end.
I noticed in mid 2022 that the SP500 seemed to hit bottom and was on the way back up by July. It than hit a bit lower bottom in October and resumed its march up from there to the present time. I have mentioned this many times in this thread gong back into the summer of 2022. YES......the reality.....we have been in a BULL MARKET for the past 18 months. The first six months were very stealth......I doubt many saw or believed it. As we moved into 2023 it became more obvious....but most.....still refused to believe or respect what was happening for at least the first 6-8 months of the year. This is the POWER of being a long term fully invested all the time investor. I dont have to be right. I dont have to somehow know when a bull market is starting. I dont have to have the guts to go against the herd. I dont have to do anything. I simply have to have the guts to sit and be swept along by he markets. You See? Stock Prices Trend https://allstarcharts.com/you-see-stock-prices-trend/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "As you may have expected, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is making new all-time highs. This week we saw the most amount of stocks hitting new 52-week highs in over 2 years. That’s what happens in bull markets: I can’t imagine why anyone should be surprised. I mean, we are already 18 months into this bull market. There’s breadth expansion across the stock market. Sector rotation among the leading groups. More and more countries around the world breaking out. These are the things we see in bull markets. And this is important because we want to know the best way to allocate our time. We’ve spent most of the year looking for stock to buy, because that’s historically the best thing to do in this type of environment. Imagine spending all year looking for reasons to be bearish and trying to find stocks to sell, or worse top-tick the biggest winners? Ouch. Make sure you remember those who maliciously tried to steer you wrong. This is both as a reminder of what assholes they are in real life, but also, and more importantly, to use moving forward as contrarian indicators. Also try to remember what helped get us all these profits throughout the year. And I’m not pointing to me and our team. This has nothing to do with us. It all gets back to counting. If investors would just take the time to go and look to see what the market was actually doing, instead of focusing on arbitrary things like jobs, the Fed, housing, yield curves, or whatever other silly fairytales they’ve tried to spin this year, everyone would have been on the right side of the trend. And this is a great time to remind everyone: Stock Prices Trend. They always have. And they’ve been trending higher for 18 months. So new all-time highs in the Dow should surprise no one. The most new highs on the NYSE in years is perfectly normal." MY COMMENT I doubt that many people are ignoring or disrespecting the current BULL MARKET.....NOW. BUT....I am also sure there are many people still waiting for the right time to come back into the markets. Even if they now recognize the bull market....they are waiting for a pull back or correction or even a bear market to give them the "right" entry point to come back into the markets. This is classic behavior for market.....losers. For me, there is only one way to avoid this very human situation.....simply be fully invested all the time. After many decades I still hate the PAIN of going through a year like 2022.....but I make myself do it. Investing is the absolute endeavor where the phrase.......NO PAIN, NO GAIN....is the truth.
To continue. Chart of the week: The light at the end of the Fed’s tunnel gets brighter https://finance.yahoo.com/news/char...-the-feds-tunnel-gets-brighter-110050533.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Fed has been the story of the year for investors. And this week, Jay Powell & Co. gave markets a preview of the tale they expect to tell in 2024: lower interest rates. After pushing interest rates to 22-year highs this summer, our Chart of the Week shows lower rates offering light at the end of the tunnel to investors by next spring. (SEE ARTICLE FOR CHART) In so many quarters the astronomical rates — the highest in memory for anyone under a certain age — have been a ball and chain. And of course, this was by design. The Fed’s rates are meant to help slow an overheated economy down. But early this year, investors began sniffing out the Fed’s future changes. The normally rate-sensitive tech sector — mostly the megacap “Magnificent Seven” stocks — shrugged off the Fed’s rising rates, climbing an AI-fueled rocket ship and anticipating what Powell confirmed this week. With the Fed’s pivot now coming into clear focus, however, the Magnificent Seven no longer need to play Atlas to the index. Relief is on the way. Even for those stocks, sectors, and investors that doubted the signal markets were sending for much of the year. The Fed is done. The pressure is off. A new chapter begins." MY COMMENT With the FED admitting that hikes are over......we have reached the mid-life of the BULL MARKET. We are now able to go back to a NORMAL stock market. We have now finally reached the point......nearly THREE YEARS LATER......that we are done with the ridiculous pandemic economic shut down. Now........it is time for investors to CELEBRATE and ENJOY the fruits of their investing....as the bull market proceeds. How long will it last? I have no idea. Much will depend on how long we have doubters on the sidelines. I would guess that this will be a prolonged bull market......probably another 1-2 years. One comment.....I dont invest according to whether it is a bull market or a bear market or something in-between. I simply invest by being in the markets all the time.....AND....just as importantly.....trying to own the MOST ICONIC COMPANIES.....of the American economy. I guess you could call my type of investing and the "probability" rules I follow......OBSESSIVE SIMPLICITY.
Hi all, Been a long time since I've posted but I'll try to come back more often again. Had a tough 2022 but I'm up 26.78% ytd in 2023. Big gainers for me (talking actual sales here) have been Costco (which I sold unfortunately but still netted 13.3%), MMM (10.8%), ABBV (11.6%), VLO (27.5%), VOO (6.5%), NVDA (25.1%. I totally missed the big ramp up last spring and summer). I've rebought NVDA and that purchase is up 11%. Losers have been EQT (-15%. Learned a harsh lesson with that one), PFE (-9.7%), HD (-8.6%), NKE (-7.6%). All the losers except EQT were small % of portfolio. There are few other bit players not worth mentioning, both positive and negative. I still trade but not as frequently as I used to. Current portfolio is NVDA (24% of portfolio), XOM (17%), EQT (9%), DE (22%), VLO (28%). I realize I'm oriented towards energy but the dividends (MMM also) are attractive. I'm honestly unsure of what to buy right now. Some of the stocks I've liked in the past (i.e. LOW) aren't going to move much until rates drop and people start buying and building houses again. See ya all. Good to be back. G
