The Long Term Investor

The market today.

US stocks keep grip on highs, looking to build on 7-week rally

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...oking-to-build-on-7-week-rally-143140287.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks edged higher in midday trading on Monday, with the Dow riding toward another record even as Federal Reserve officials tried to rein in high expectations for interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) inched up roughly 0.1%, or more than 50 points, as the index eyes another record close. Both the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed about 0.5%.

Stocks have surged as investors became increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve would make more rate cuts in 2024 than previously forecast. Those hopes got a boost last week, as policymakers recognized its efforts to cool inflation were having an impact.

But Fed officials have pushed back against bets on deeper and faster rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Sunday that it’s too early to declare victory over inflation after his New York counterpart, John Williams, said Friday that talk of rate cuts is "premature."

Investors will closely watch Friday's reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, to help set expectations. Economists expect price pressures to have eased in November.

In individual corporates, US Steel (X) shares shot up more than 27% in midday trading after Japan's Nippon Steel said it would buy the company in a deal worth $14.9 billion. Its offer of $55 a share represents a premium of about 40% to the steelmaker's last closing price in August.

Meanwhile, Nio (NIO) stock jumped around 6% as investors absorbed news that an Abu Dhabi investor will inject $2.2 billion in the Chinese EV maker.

In commodities, oil prices rose, reversing course after BP joined several container lines in halting all journeys through the Red Sea after attacks on shipping. That may disrupt flows, analysts have warned. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures were changing hands at just above $73 a barrel, while Brent crude futures (BZ=F) traded just under $79 a barrel."

MY COMMENT

Poor FED....they let the rabbit out of the hat and now they are trying to chase him down and put him back in. They continue to lose any credibility to move the markets.

 

Sounds good gtrudeau88. My bottom line....if it works for you....JUST DO IT. There is no single way to invest. Everyone has to do what they enjoy doing and what works for them. There is nothing wrong with trading even if you do not beat the SP500....if you enjoy the challenge.

 

With the HOLIDAY fast approaching.....well slowly....for the retail businesses.......this is about what passes for investing news today.

Forget Hot Dogs and Rotisserie Chickens: This Is Costco's New Hot Product

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-hot-dogs-rotisserie-chickens-101200614.html

 

It is a....BEAUTIFUL DAY....as we are about to close out yet another UP day for the markets. We are in the middle of a very nice SANTA CLAUS rally right now. It has been at least a couple of years since we have had one. Nothing better than a Christmas/Holiday rally....especially in a year with already BIG gains.

Can you tell that I am killing time till the markets close in about one minute?

 

A nice FAT gain for me today in my stocks. Five of seven stocks UP today. The lagers....HD....which simply had some profit taking as far as I can tell, I dont see any news.......and....AAPL.....I am guessing due to their news today that they suspended selling some of their watches due to a patent dispute.

I also BEAT the SP500 today by 1.13%.

We are down to the final 9 market days of 2023. We have made it to year end with most gains intact and growing......we will soon lock those gains in the permanent historical record. At that point we all start back at......"0"......YTD.

 

I am sure many people on here are seeing the same thing right now.....another new all time high for me today.

 

One of the KEY COMPONENTS of long term investing.......actually.....being in the markets long term.

Staying the Course is Harder Than it Sounds

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/staying-the-course-is-harder-than-it-sounds/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"After suffering drawdowns of 21%, 25% and 35% in the bear market of 2022, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all broke even on a total return basis this week:



Sure that means these markets went nowhere for nearly two years but just look at the returns since the start of 2020:



Considering everything we’ve lived through those returns are not bad at all.

One of my least favorite phrases in all of investing is the easy money has been made.

Making money in the financial markets is never easy.

You’re forced to deal with constant uncertainty, volatility, fear, greed, and an endless stream of noise.

It only ever feels easy in the rearview mirror.

Just think about everything investors have had to deal with these past few years:

• The pandemic caused us to turn off the economy for 1-2 months in the spring of 2020.
• The unemployment rate shot up to 14%.
• We had no idea how long the pandemic would last or when we would find a vaccine.
• March 2020 was one of the worst months in stock market history.
• Interest rates fell to historic lows.
• Oil prices went negative.
• We experienced the fastest bear market from all-time highs to down 30% ever.
• Then stocks came roaring back.
• There was a meme stock/crypto bubble.
• Inflation came back from the dead to reach its highest level in 40 years.
• We had a nasty bear market in 2022.
• The Fed took short-term rates from 0% to 5% in a hurry.
• The bond market saw its worst crash in history.
• The 60/40 portfolio had one of its worst years ever.

For the past two years investors have been inundated with predictions of a recession, a repeat of the 1970s, stagflation, a housing market crash and worse.

None of these things happened.

It’s incredible how well things have worked out these past few years all things considered. There are no counterfactuals but things have turned out much worse.

Yes, the fiscal response from the government was immense but it wasn’t a foregone conclusion it would work. Certainly no one predicted this economic outcome ahead of time.

This was an economic experiment unlike anything we’ve ever tried before.

Inflation has not been fun to deal with but things could have been far worse considering Russia invaded Ukraine when prices were already spiraling out of control. Inflation could have been even more unpleasant than it has been if the global supply chain hadn’t healed in a relatively short period of time.

The Fed could have broken things when they raised rates from 0% to 5% so fast. The reason so many economists and pundits were predicting a recession in 2022 and 2023 is because we’ve never brought inflation down from such lofty heights without an economic contraction.

If you injected Jerome Powell with truth serum I’m guessing he would tell you there was no way a soft landing was possible 15-18 months ago.

The fact that we’ve done so thus far is an economic miracle.

Maybe we go into a recession or another bear market in 2024 or 2025 or whenever. It’s bound to happen at some point.

Regardless of how things turned out, I would like to give kudos to those who stuck with their investment plan throughout this ordeal.

If you dutifully dollar cost averaged in when stocks were falling give yourself a pat on the back. You did the right thing.

If you rebalanced your portfolio when stocks fell, great job.

If you rode out the losses without panic-selling at the bottom, nice work.

If you ignored the people who were screaming at you every day about how much worse things were going to get, outstanding performance.

If you kept your asset allocation in place when people on the Internet were trying to pitch you ridiculous investment options, good on you.

If you didn’t look at your 401k balance for the past couple of years, you’re better off for it in the end.

If you did nothing to your portfolio because that’s what your plan called for, I applaud you.

Look, the clock never runs out on the markets. The game never ends. Bull markets turn into bear markets which turn into bull markets and round and round it goes.

Everything is cyclical.

There will be harder times ahead at some point. There will be crashes that make the 2020 and 2022 bear markets look quaint by comparison.

But sometimes it’s nice to sit back and appreciate how you handled certain parts of the cycle.

Staying the course is harder than it sounds."

MY COMMENT

CONGRATULATIONS.....to us one and all.

"WE".....are the unsung hero's of the markets. WE....are the guts of the economy......we provide the funds that drive business. We....are the under-appreciated little retail investors that hang in there through all the short term turmoil that is created by the professional traders, government, and the big banks. We....are never recognized with glowing articles in the media about our investing prowess....after all....we dont hire PR firms and put out self aggrandizing press releases every day.

"WE"...just do what we do......stick out the markets all day, every day, as we work to provide a bright future for our family.

"WE".....the little retail investors should be the......"PERSON OF THE YEAR".....on all the magazine covers and the front page of the Wall Street Journal.

TAKE A BOW.....little investors.....you deserve it.

 

A very.....HAPPY....open for the markets today. All the big averages are up early in the day. A normal market....a normal week.....a very abnormal year. Returns are off the charts.

 

I like the data in this little article about the....."professionals".

The underrated tailwind that could boost stocks this year and beyond

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...st-stocks-this-year-and-beyond-110008981.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"With just a handful of trading days left in 2023, the story of the year is pretty well baked.

The "Magnificent Seven" stocks fueled a stock rally driven by AI hype while the Federal Reserve delivered investors a "soft landing" this year and signaled lower interest rates in the year ahead.

Take these storylines together and it's little wonder the S&P 500 gained over 22% while the Nasdaq climbed over 42%.

This ascent has pushed Wall Street strategists to continue raising expectations for the year ahead and seen stocks enter much-feared "overbought" territory.

But these indicators, which are often taken as a contrarian sign for investors of weakness ahead, may not be enough to overcome another problem hanging over the heads of many portfolio managers across Wall Street this holiday season — underperformance.

New data from Tom Lee at Fundstrat published Monday showed that most professional investors are still underwater when compared to their benchmark.

The firm's data showed that through the end of last week some 65% of large-cap fund managers were trailing their benchmark by an average of 6.5%. This data captured 577 funds with nearly $3 trillion under management benchmarked to either the S&P 500, the Russell 1000, or the Growth or Value variations of these indexes.

Lee notes that this 35% of large-cap fund managers beating their benchmark lags the historical average of closer to 45%. Data from S&P Dow Jones Indices cited by TKer earlier this year showed 2023's underperformance got worse as the year went along, with 40% of managers trailing the market at the halfway mark.

All of which, in plain English, means that while the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has had a great year, many investors have struggled to keep pace, potentially putting pressure on these investors for the balance of this year and into 2024.

In Lee's view, an elevated number of investors lagging their benchmark could encourage these folks to chase this year's winning trades — notably the Magnificent Seven stocks and, more recently, financials, among others — into the final weeks of the year.

On the one hand, this is a short-term look at how markets might behave in the next few weeks. (Lee's overall recommendation for clients is to remain a dip buyer into year-end.)

But we think Lee's work illuminates the importance of relative performance for most investors and how this creates the kind of pressure that pushes someone to chase markets in an effort to turn a poor year into a middling one.

The investors Fundstrat's work captures by and large aren't working with retail clients, but institutions like pensions, endowments, or "fund of funds" managers. And these folks don't pay high fees to get an investment that matches the market or runs a portfolio that looks like, say, the S&P 500.

Rather, they pay for a strategy that attempts to beat this benchmark — or the other aforementioned variants — and also does it while providing a different risk profile.

Lee notes that the "concentrated gains of FAANG contributed to the performance challenges for large-cap managers." As Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer noted earlier this year, the Magnificent Seven stocks including Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) have risen more than 70% this year as a group and comprise roughly 27% of the index's market cap.

Were a 50-stock portfolio, for example, to exhibit a market cap imbalance similar to the S&P 500 you'd have one stock accounting for roughly a quarter of the portfolio's overall value. And the kind of active manager that Fundstrat's data tracks does not court institutional investors by putting a quarter of their portfolio into a single idea.

Which leaves 2023 as a perfect storm for active managers.

Because not only has the market rallied against broad expectations for a slide in stocks and a downturn in the economy, but the rally has been led in large part by a handful of stocks overrepresented in the index and underrepresented in most investor portfolios."

MY COMMENT

Oh the poor...."professionals". They just can not keep up with the averages and the little people that sit in the averages.

BOTTOM LINE.....if we ever get to the point where the little people are not investing in the markets or have been driven out of the markets.......there will be no markets. It will all be manipulation, game playing, and guesswork by people that might be smart on paper but are often self absorbed IDIOTS.

While the "professionals" are all running around with their hair on fire as they window dress their portfolios to try to placate their clients....or explain their under-performance.....the regular retail investors are CELEBRATING a great year.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS and MERRY CHRISTMAS......to us all, one and all.......even the professionals and the economists.

 

I post this for the spending and economic data.....not the political content.

Holiday spending to be up big even as approval of Biden hits new low, CNBC economic survey shows

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/hol...-hits-new-low-cnbc-economic-survey-shows.html

(BOLD is my opinion ORR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Intended holiday spending per person jumped 31% to $1,300 this year, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey. Eighteen percent of respondents said they will spend more this holiday.
• Yet, 66% percent of Americans are negative about the current state of the economy and the outlook, a record for the 17 years of the survey.
• Biden’s overall approval rate fell to 35%, the lowest CNBC has recorded in his presidency. His economic approval rose a point to 33% and disapproval declined a point to 62%.
• The survey of 1,002 Americans throughout the country was conducted Dec. 8 through 12 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.

Holiday spending on the rise despite weak consumer sentiment, CNBC economic survey finds

It looks like it’s going to be both a green and a blue Christmas.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds American views on the economy in a continued slump, echoed in increasingly negative views on President Joe Biden’s job approval, and yet holiday spending plans are buoyant.

The survey shows intended holiday spending per person rocketed up to $1,300 this year, 31% above last year. While the number was driven by a small number of respondents saying they will spend large sums, the gains still amount to double digits when those answers are removed. What’s more, 18% say they will spend more, up from just 11% last year and the highest since 2019. Among those spending more, 32% say it’s because they are being paid more or have higher incomes, up 2 points from last year; 24% say it’s because of inflation, down 6 points.





Meanwhile, among those spending less this year, 37% say it’s because of inflation, up from 15% last year.

The survey underscores the increasing divide between dour American economic sentiment and upbeat economic data. Multiple surveys have found downbeat economic views but data showing robust consumer spending. Recent reports show surging third quarter growth, a low unemployment rate and strong holiday spending.

The CNBC Survey found modest improvements in views on the economy, but they remain mostly depressed. 80% view the economy as just fair or poor, down three points from the October survey, and 19% say it’s excellent or good, up three points. But those levels are heavily depressed from the pre-pandemic levels in December 2019 when 53% of the public said the economy was good or excellent.

The outlook also improved a bit, with 24% of the public saying they expect the economy to improve, up from 19% in October, but still down from 30% in 2019. For the full year, the 66% percent of Americans who are negative about the current state of the economy and the outlook represents an all-time high in the 17 years of the survey.

Biden approval hits new low

Inflation looks to be driving economic sentiment with 30% of respondents saying it’s the No. 1 issue facing the nation, down just two points down from the high last quarter despite a continued decline in the inflation numbers— a potential sign that Americans are less concerned that prices aren’t rising as fast anymore as they are that prices have risen and remain high. Inflation is followed by immigration and border security, chosen by 18% as the leading issue, and foreign policy and national security, which rose 4 points to 12%.


FROM HERE ON I HAVE OMITTED THE PORTION OF THE ARTICLE DEALING MAINLY WITH POLITICS....CLICK THE LINK TO VIEW THIS CONTENT.

MY COMMENT

Remember a few weeks to a month ago when al the experts were predicting a DISMAL shopping season this year. YEP......WRONG AGAIN.

 

ENJOY the day.

 

I am down today....at the moment. It is a rare day when my greatest tech and non-tech holdings are in the red on the same day....COST, NVDA, AMZN, and MSFT.

 

And....compliments of SANTA we are now in a broad based rally.

The 2023 stock market rally isn't just about 7 stocks anymore

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...nt-just-about-7-stocks-anymore-103028679.html

"Research from Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson shows 78% of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) stocks were above their 200-day moving average last week, matching the highest levels of this year."........

"Over the past month, we've experienced arguably the best stretch of breadth improvement in 2023," Wilson wrote in a note on Monday.".......

"Meanwhile, none of the Magnificent Seven have gained more than 8% over the last month. Tesla, which is up about 7.9% in that time, has led the Magnificent Seven but is barely in the top half of individual gainers in the S&P 500 since Nov. 17."......

 

I had a minor loss today in my stocks. I had four UP.....GOOGL, AAPL. HD, and MSFT. I also had three DOWN....AMZN, COST, and NVDA.

I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.70% today. Not bad considering that NVDA and COST have been up big time till today. Nothing unexpected about today in my portfolio and the general markets.

 

We continue to set records....compliments of SANTA.

Stock market news today: Stocks close higher as Dow notches fifth straight record

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-notches-fifth-straight-record-210253480.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks closed high on Tuesday, with an eighth weekly win still within reach as investors stayed upbeat on the prospect of interest rate cuts despite warnings those hopes are overdone.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed roughly 0.7%, or more than 250 points — its fifth straight record close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also ticked up about 0.7%, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped around 0.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed roughly 0.5%, or nearly 200 points, while the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) each ticked up about 0.4%.

The strong gains come as Federal Reserve officials tried to quell bets on a rate cut as early as March. They said it's "premature" to be convinced the central bank is done with rate hikes and signaled its policy will still be data-driven.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan decided on Tuesday to keep interest rates below zero and gave no hint of when it might exit negative levels.

But as US stocks hold onto gains, investors appear to be looking through those cautionary signs — for now. Friday's update on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will likely help make the argument for or against faster and earlier cuts.

Investors are also keeping an eye on oil prices, as more companies join BP in avoiding transits through the Red Sea after attacks on shipping in the important trade route. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) inched up to trade just below $74 a barrel while Brent crude futures (BZ=F) traded above $79 a barrel."

MY COMMENT

A KILLER day today in the markets. We will see the obvious day to day variations in the markets......but....there is really nothing standing in the way of the markets right now....for the rest of this year and for January and into the spring.

Of course.......you can never count out the FED for tanking the markets....even if it is much less likely right now.

 

Well.....in just two market days.....we are already up a bit over 1% in the SP500.....on top of all the gains of November, December, and the rest of the year. That is insane. BUT.....I will take it all day long.

COUNTDOWN to year end. Seven market days left. Cant wait to close out the year and note the gains this year in my......"permanent record". We were always scared to death when teachers and school administrators warned us that something could go into our "permanent record".