The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OH, yes....the markets. I forgot about them today. They are doing just fine with ALL the big averages UP nicely once again. They definately dont need my help.

    Dont blame me if the markets tank....BUT....we are well on our way to ANOTHER good gain week.

    PRESENTS FOR EVERYONE.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. oldmanram

    oldmanram Well-Known Member

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    I was just sitting here looking at my numbers, good this morning, and thought back to 12 months ago, remember ? We were all wondering
    "When is the bleeding going to stop ?"
    People were saying it's going to be worse when the recession hits.
    Or we will be lucky to have the market gain 6% in 2023.
    I had one analyst/broker say to me "Sell Apple Now!" last January, I told him "NO WAY"
    Apple is up 55% YTD

    I can indeed confirm that the market is broadening
    In looking at my stocks today MGK is a small winner up .01% (my worst performing stock)
    While IBB, Small Cap Value, VYM, VOT (mid cap growth) are all doing better, with returns in the .3% range to IBB up 2.03% so far today.

    OK guys gotta go, thanks again.

    One more little thought on "Beating the Market" :
    Most stock pickers don't BEAT the market, it is estimated 90% don't

    What's wrong with just owning the market ? Like an S&P500 index ETF , Absolutely Nothing !
     
    #18162 oldmanram, Dec 22, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2023
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Lori Meyer.

    I did not know you were from England. Are you an ex-pat American or English? It is nice to have someone from a different country on the board. We also have......rg.....from Portugal.

    If you dont mind sharing......what do you own in your portfolio? Do you own any particular EU investing products or EU companies?

    If you are willing...tell us a little bit about yourself.

    Is there anyone else on here from outside the USA?
     
    #18163 WXYZ, Dec 22, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2023
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I see that the DOW is now RED and the other big averages are close to going flat.

    At the moment my main account is RED....slightly. My siblings big account which I manage is.....slightly....green. Both accounts have the same holdings in slightly different percentages.

    In my primary account I have three stocks up right now.....GOOGL, MSFT, and COST.

    Since I am basically flat for the day.....the close is totally up in the air for me today.

    I would say the markets are just doing some....pre-Christmas and pre-Holiday drifting today. Not much incentive to either side....up or down. I suspect that ALL the professionals are taking the day off for a long Holiday weekend.....and all of us little investors....are finishing up our shopping and hitting the grocery store for last minute items.....most of us are certainly not following the markets much today.

    One thing is sure.......we have had a BRILLIANT investing year.....this year. A very welcome HUGE gain year.
     
    #18164 WXYZ, Dec 22, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2023
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Our quotes are as green as a Christmas tree. Our core holding that bounced back hard in the last two weeks is currently up 17.25% on the day and is now, by far, our largest single holding.

    I try to be someone who has a general understanding of whats going on. When a dividend is cut, I expect a loss equity. Same on the upside. Etc.

    I know something major is going on at two of our companies but there has been no news that I can find on the net or investor relations of the companies themselves. It is a very uneasy feeling.

    Whatever the case, if this continues, we could retire.
     
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  6. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    That one stock is now up just over 21% on the day.

    If you will excuse me, I need to find a job so I can quit and retire.
     
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  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Tom....a KILLER day for your one holding. Remember.....as to the others that you can not find news.....dont look a gift horse in the mouth.

    At this rate you might be able to....retire....five or six times.
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW.....not too long ago all the averages had turned RED.....now they have all JUMPED to the green side of the force. Although as I finished typing the above.....the DOW went red. Luckily....all I care about is the SP500 and the NASDAQ.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    As a business person I am happy to see this. No social commentary intended. I just prefer to keep ALL the focus on business and nothing else with companies.

    Tech companies like Google and Meta made cuts to DEI programs in 2023 after big promises in prior years

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/22/google-meta-other-tech-giants-cut-dei-programs-in-2023.html

    "Key Points
    • After vocal commitments following the murder of George Floyd in 2020, DEI programs in the tech industry are in broad retreat.
    • Some companies have laid off DEI staffers and leaders of diverse employee resource groups, downsized learning and development programs, and cut budgets for external DEI groups by as much as 90% in 2023, sources told CNBC.
    • The cuts come as the tech industry doubles down on artificial intelligence. With fewer diverse voices represented in AI development, the resulting products could be less accurate or more harmful to users."
    MY COMMENT

    I do call BS on the final item above about AI. Just focus on your market, products, and customer.....and leave the rest of the "stuff" to others. As to AI....I want the unvarnished TRUTH.....nothing more, nothing less..
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A good day to end the week for me....but a small gain. I also got beat by the SP500 today by......0.10%.

    We now hear into the Christmas/Holiday weekend. Only four market days left in 2023.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another POSITIVE week....is that number eight in a row or number nine?

    DOW year to date +9.43%
    DOW five days +1.66%

    SP500 year to date +23.83%
    SP500 five days +0.74%

    NASDAQ 100 year to date +53.36%
    NASDAQ five days +0.93%

    NASDAQ year to date +43.25%
    NASDAQ five days +1.21%

    RUSSELL year to date +15.48%
    RUSSELL five days +1.67%

    A VERY GOOD week for the markets. Last week my entire account was at +44.12% year to date. This week I am at +45.02% year to date. A gain of +0.90%. Four days till the final number is locked in for 2023 and we start over at 0.00%.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AMAZING....run we are on right now.

    S&P 500 closes higher Friday, registers longest weekly win streak since 2017: Live updates

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The S&P 500 rose Friday after cooler inflation data, with the major averages registering an eighth straight winning week as Wall Street looked to extend its year-end rally.

    The broad market index gained 0.17% to 4,754.63. At current levels, the S&P 500 is 0.9% from its record close, and 1.3% from its intraday record.

    The Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.19% to 14,992.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    fell 18.38 points, or 0.05%, to 37,385.97.

    The three major averages notched their eighth positive week in a row — a first for the S&P 500 since 2017 and for the Dow dating back to 2019. The S&P 500 advanced by 0.8% for the week, while the Dow added 0.2%. The Nasdaq jumped 1.2% in the period.

    Dow component Nike dropped nearly 12% after lowering its sales outlook, and announcing plans to cut costs by about $2 billion over the next three years.

    The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge came in less than expected. The November core personal consumption expenditures price index rose just 0.1% last month, and gained 3.2% from a year ago, about in line with expectations. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipated a monthly increase of 0.1% and 3.3% from a year earlier.

    “We believe that today’s PCE data, which the Fed weighs heavily in its review of inflation status, further cemented the downward trajectory of inflation,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive officer at AXS Investments. “And we think that’s another catalyst for today’s excitement by investors, that a soft landing seems closer to being assured.”

    The market rally has recently broadened out as bond yields fall and traders bet on rate cuts from the central bank. On Friday, the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.8%, posting its sixth straight positive week.

    “It underscores the breadth and depth of this holiday rally, which we think is going to bode well for investors moving into 2024,” Bassuk said.


    The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for Christmas."

    MY COMMENT

    A nice week to cap off the pre-Christmas market. Looking good.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    So....that is it....we are done till after Christmas when we hit it hard for the final four market days of 2023.

    So:

    MERRY CHRISTMAS/HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. SEE YOU ALL ON TUESDAY.
     
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  14. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    What a run we have been on….happy for all that have been a part of it. We deserve it.

    On my trip and the shopping and tourism is simply booming. Nice to see and be a part of it seeing the Christmas spirit.

    Well, I am off to another event this evening. Merry Christmas to all my stockaholics friends. I hope you all have a wonderful season with friends and family.
     
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  15. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Yesterday and today I made back almost all of what was lost on Wed, helped by my VLO dividend. Up 29.10% ytd versus 25.95% for the S&P 500.

    Nothing new in my account other than ditching EQT on Wed. I decided I made a mistake and had put too big a % into energy (too many eggs in one basket) so I sold it for a $75 profit and bought almost an equivalent amount of GIS. GIS has the some minor potential I think but hadas EQT but is in a completely different sector and has better dividends. NVDA is my biggest gainer at about 10% with Valero running next at 7.6% gain, DE at 5.1%, XOM < 1%, and GIS at -.7% (my only negative). Unlikely to trade for a while (but not impossible if you know me!).

    Talk to you all next week.

    G

    Correction: Just looked at analyst expectations for GIS and the potential growth, assuming median price is reached, is only about 5%. Don't know if I misread the WSJ (likely) or if something changed. The ex-dividend date is 1/9/2024 so I'll probably sell this mistake just prior to 1/9/24 and see if I can gain few points in the usual runup. I only have a hundred shares of GIS so both risk and gain is kinda minimal. GIS is a much smaller part of my portfolio than NVDA, Deere, Valero, Exxon.
     
    #18175 gtrudeau88, Dec 22, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2023
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  16. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Great posting I suspect but frankly my brain is too cooked from work to fully comprehend it. My eyes glossed over honestly. I'm off work until after New Years so I'll come back to this next week and hopefully digest it better.
     
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  17. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've been thinking about our position. For two years, our portfolio fluctuated from a February 2020 high to being down about 13% at the lowest. During that time, two of our companies reduced distributions.

    Now our portfolio has regained it's value and hit new all time highs. We are almost exactly where we would have been, if we had held VOO. Our distributions are a little bit higher than it was a year ago but well off the ATH of 2020.

    I hope no one reads my bragging posts and thinks I'm somehow beating the S&P 500, long term. I have basically paced it in the last two years and I only caught up today. To be fair, I did out pace it for 14 years prior to that period.

    In 2020, I knew our portfolio was going to take a hit and chose to sit back watch it burn. I had stopped reinvesting money in early 2018. There were a couple of purchases through 2019 but they were extremely minor purchases. Our money markets and GICs built up between then and today. So, it seems clear I could have gotten out of the market before the correction.

    What is also clear is that I have no idea why our portfolio is going wild. We have a ton of near-cash standing by so I could have capitalized on this market explosion but I am not smart enough. This up turn caught me out.

    If I had sold half our portfolio, I could have bragged about it for a while but I would have missed the up turn and I would have been worse off than doing nothing. I've seen this cycle so many times, it is starting to seem predictable.

    So, I will continue to do what I do best. Nothing.
     
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  18. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    If anyone ever wonders why I post here even though I trade and so don't fit the definition of the long term investor:

    • I don't day trade
    • I've learned my lesson from a few years ago and only invest in solid established companies (i.e. never again novavax)
    • I'm always 100% invested, I just float amongst companies more often.
    • I never leave the market. Downturns on the market are opportunities to buy.
    In summary, I've adapted some aspects of the long term investor definition to my brain and made it work.

    I'll add that I could never day trade, partly due to time commitment combined with a complete unwillingness to learn teacups and all the other patterns. Definitely not me.
     
    #18178 gtrudeau88, Dec 23, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2023
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  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    It is good to see you posting more lately gtrudeau88.

    There is NO investing style requirement to post here. Everyone is welcome to post regardless of your style as an investor or trader.

    In some fashion everyone is a long term investor....with at least some of their money....even if they are a significant trader. Havinng exposure to a broad number of investing strategies benefits us all.
     
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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well said TomB16. My favorite investing strategy....doing nothing. That being said.....I looked back at my account as of January 1 2023. At that time I had ten stocks. Over the course of the year I sold three.....TSLA, HON, and NIKE.

    My goal in 2024 will be to not sell anything. I cant imagine selling anything that I currently own. Who knows I might even find something to add as a long term holding. I would prefer to have about ten stocks ideally....but I will not add something just to hit that number. After all......the money is still in the markets in my SP500 Index Fund and my Fidelity Contra Fund which tends to slightly beat the SP500.
     
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