I just took a mid-morning look at my account. It is good to be making some money today. I have a single stock DOWN at this moment....APPLE. LETS GROW INTO THE DAY FROM HERE......SHOW ME THE MONEY.
4 of my 5 are up, led my DE up 1.4%. GIS is down .23% but I only have 100 shares so the loss is negligible. Gonna be a good day.
Boy am I glad I left Edward Jones, even if I had some pain to learn along the way. https://www.edwardjones.com/sites/default/files/acquiadam/2021-02/IPC-7080-A.pdf Why is heaven's name would you: - Not allow a single stock to be more than 5% of a portfolio? - Own 25-30 distinct stocks for a portfolio made of 60% stocks - Really mix together small/medium/large/US/International stocks No way in heck will I follow that advice which leads to serious overdiversification. Here's why I disagree with EJ: - 25 to 30 stocks does dilute your risk to some degree. It also seriously dilutes your gains. NOTE: I do rotate my portfolio amongst the same 15 to 20 stocks. - 25 to 30 stocks means 25 to 30 companies and/or industries that you need to educate yourself about. I don't have time for that. - Small company- likely adds undesired volatility which may induce panicky decision making (That was me with Novavax!) - International stocks - I don't like them because it introduces foreign taxes into the equation - found this out when I saw Canadian taxes taken out of an ENB sale For me (not anyone else) I want American companies who have a large and established presence in the industry. I prefer ones that pay a dividend and I like to focus $ on energy production since no one can make anything without consuming energy. Energy companies (meaning oil and gas) are the funeral homes of the world. As long as something needs to be mass produced, energy will be bought and sold. I also like agriculture since we need to eat, hence my stake in DE. People need homes to live in so I pay attention to LOW and HD. G
This should be a big help with our dependence on China. World's Largest Reserve Of REE Lithium Discovered Beneath California's Salton Sea: $540 Billion Motherlode Could Meet America's Supply Demands For Decades https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worlds-largest-ree-lithium-discovered-160012987.html "....the Department of Energy (DOE) was jumping for joy when it discovered what is believed to be the world's largest supply of lithium beneath California's Salton Sea. The estimated 18 million-ton mother-lode could be worth up to $540 billion and meet America's demand for decades to come." "If the lithium beneath the Salton Sea can be harvested and brought to market, America would no longer have to rely on nations like Saudi Arabia and China for its energy or automaking needs. America would also be much richer because lithium is worth an estimated $29,000 per ton. That would make the Salton Sea's estimated 18 million gallons worth $540 billion." The DOE partly funded this exploration....".....As part of that effort, it gave a $14.9 million grant to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Energy to study the area surrounding the Salton Sea, which straddles Riverside and Imperial counties in the California desert." MY COMMENT I assume our reluctance to drill and frack will.....NOT APPLY....to this discovery. When we really go all out in exploration for this and other rare earth minerals.....I believe we will turn out to have the worlds largest reserves of all of them. It is amazing what can be done once government either supports something.....or....simply gets out of the way of private business. A BIG potential win for Berkshire Hathaway.
This constant "stuff" regarding jobs and young workers just drives me crazy. Quiet quitting.....career cushioning.....shift shock....work from home....etc, etc, etc. If younger workers would simply stop over-analyzing everything, learn to communicate in person, learn social skills,.......and...spend as much time doing the actual job well.....as coming up with strategies to manipulate the job or work place....they might be way ahead in their career. 'Career cushioning,' latest workplace trend, has employees trying to protect themselves heading into 2024 https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...loyees-trying-protect-themselves-heading-2024 MY COMMENT I am so glad that I am no longer a business owner. Although I followed a non-traditional method of hiring employees. I encouraged my workers to refer family members and others that they knew from church and elsewhere. This created a work place that had much PEER PRESSURE for new employees to perform since their friend or family member was responsible for them being there as a co-worker. I tended to have extremely long term employees. A good number were with me for the entire time I owned the business. I took good care of them through good wages, a good pension plan for them with immediate vesting (my KEOGH Plan), and a good work environment. I also used JOB SHARING liberally to capture good workers that had kids at home and only wanted to work 2-3 days per week. Some of these techniques were pretty advanced for the late 1970's to the 1990's.
A great way to start the short week.....with a moderate gain. I ended with five of seven stocks UP today. Much better than what was happening mid-day. The two DOWN stocks.....AAPL, which was down all day as far as I can tell....and....AMZN, down a MASSIVE....(-0.01%) I also lost out to the SP500 today by 0.10%. A very nice way to start the short week....with more money in my account......on paper.
The close today. Dow closes 150 points higher on Tuesday, S&P 500 approaches all-time high: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose to start the last week of the year, pushing the S&P 500 closer to record levels. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7%. The Dow Jones industrial Average gained 200 points, or about 0.5%. Despite weaker volume, Tuesday’s moves likely signal a continuation of the positive market trends boosting major indices in recent weeks, said Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer. “You still have money dripping in even though it’s weakened, and a solid bid underneath the surface as we head into year end,” he said. “That’s likely to continue.” The S&P 500 also came into Tuesday’s session within striking distance of record levels. The broad market index is less than 1% below its closing all-time high of 4,796.56 set in January 2022. Wall Street came into the holiday-shortened week with momentum, after the S&P 500 on Friday registered its eighth straight weekly advance and longest streak since 2017. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite also notched an eight-week winning streak. Those moves come as investors cheer recent data showing inflation is moving closer toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Expectations of potential rate cuts in the new year have also lifted equities in recent weeks. “I don’t love the term, but if you were to describe what is happening it’s definitely Goldilocks for the market,” said Jan Szilagyi, CEO and co-founder of Toggle AI. “Inflation’s coming down, the economy is still chugging along, and the hiking cycle’s over. On all of these macro trends, the rally has been justified.” In other news, Intel jumped 5.2% after Israel’s government gave the chipmaker a $3.2 billion grant for a $25 billion plant in the country’s south. Manchester United added 3.4% after British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe finalized a deal to buy a quarter of the soccer club." MY COMMENT ALL the big averages are pushing toward new all time highs. Many people on here are also at or near all time highs. A great way to ring out the old year and ring in the new year. We will soon be basking in the glow of high returns locked in for 2023. That golden light at the end of the 2022 tunnel.....that is warming all of us right now....sure feels good.
Hi Guys, I have some LT losses this year , taken for tax harvesting reasons. Question: Do you prefer to match the losses with cashing in on some LT cap gains ? Or just leave them, carryover, and use when you need the money? I really can't think of what I want to sell, and then what the bleep I'm going to buy with the cash generated. I mean If the market was Like last October and was down I could find stuff to buy, but it's almost at the all time high. And I don't want to replay what got me those LT cap losses , Buying stuff at the LAST All time high. I got a little carried away back in August through December of 2021. Oops Let me hear what you think THX
Hi OldMan, Take a peek at valero, VLO. I think you have a good 13 to 15% gain before it pulls back. NVDA is also quite good. GM has room to run as well. I own the 1st two. G
Thank You G, Those are some solid choices, I am in the same situation as most of the market, all the Big names and tech ran up early, now searching the rest of what's out there for a solid stock that is lagging behind. That is reflected in my portfolios this morning, small mid caps are ahead of the big guys. MGK, VOO, VOOG, all about even or down a little The tech stocks are pulling back a touch VGT, FTEC, XLK Google, Micron, AAPL, all down Moving up VHT (healthcare) VOT , VBR and XHB (homebuilders) When in doubt , do nothing , just goes against my general nature, but sometimes it's the right move.
All I can say about today is.....the Ten Year Yield is nicely down to 3.839%. Otherwise....NOTHING....going on today. We are seeing a bit of a market dip today....most of the BIG CAP Iconic tech stocks are down. That is simply day to day market variation.....in addition to early morning market action.
Oldmanram. As to tax loss harvesting......I try to NEVER allow tax considerations to drive anything with my investing. If I think something should be sold....I sell it regardless of time of year or taxes. if I did sell something and had a nice loss....I am certainly not going to sell a winner to generate some profit to take advantage of that loss. I would have to......independently of tax considerations.....want to sell something to take profits....to do so. I am never going to do so based on taxes.
This is a great article with many good links in the article on the FAILURE of the professional market forecasters. I would end up BOLDING the whole thing and it is long so I will leave it to you to click on it. Bottom line.....when evaluated the success rate of the "professional predictors" is simply the same as chance....actually slightly below. The article concludes: "So what do writers such as Sommer and leading experts in the field recommend, particularly for individual investors with their 401K and IRA accounts? As we have emphasized before in these articles, the majority of individual investors would do well to simply follow the advice of Vanguard Funds founder Jack Bogle, Berkshire Hathaway founder Warren Buffett and Dimensional Fund Advisors co-founder David Booth: invest in one or a handful of low-cost index funds, selected according to a sober analysis of appropriate risk and time frame, perhaps with the assistance of a qualified professional, and, most importantly, hold these investments for the long term — studiously avoiding the temptation to buy or sell based on commentaries or market fluctuations. As David Booth commented, “We don’t try to forecast the future. … We have no ability to do it. Nor does anyone else.”" 2023: Another miserable year for market forecasters https://mathinvestor.org/2023/12/2023-another-miserable-year-for-market-forecasters/ MY COMMENT Actually....if you go back and look at the market predictions and calls by people in this thread....you will find them significantly more reliable and correct than the professional predictors. Actually.....I believe way better than simple "chance". BUT....I am biased toward my own views and those of the people that post here.....what can I say.
The boring and listless market today. All I can say is....it happens...it is normal. Stocks little changed as S&P inches toward record https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ged-as-sp-inches-toward-record-143349932.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks were largely unchanged on Wednesday amid a shortened week of trading as few major catalysts drove the market action. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) neared an all-time high record close of 4,796 on Wednesday. The benchmark average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered just below the flatline on Wednesday while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced about 0.2%. Stocks were looking to extend two months of gains. The S&P 500 is headed for its ninth straight week of gains, which would mark its best run since 2004. The major average has gained nearly 13% since Nov. 1. The surge higher in stocks over the past two months has come as investors have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March and inflation falls closer to the central bank's 2% target with few signs that the US economy is set for a full-on slowdown. The news flow so far this week has done little to change that narrative as equity prices have drifted higher. In individual stock moves, shares of Microsoft (MSFT) were modestly lower as the New York Times (NYT) sued the technology and OpenAI for copyright infringement. The newspaper chain claims Microsoft and OpenAI abused the Times' intellectual property. Treasury yields continued to hover near levels not seen since July. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell four basis points to 3.84% on Wednesday." MY COMMENT Nothing to see here.....move on.
I believe I have just a couple of stocks UP today so far....AMZN and HD. Although NVDA is close to the green......but "close" still equals red.
Here is an actual 26 page research paper on market predictions by the professionals. The results are as expected: Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delive...88092076088087079026017083&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE The research concludes: "4 Conclusion Market forecasts are widely read in the investment community. Some of these forecasts turn out to be uncannily accurate, while others lead to significant losses. To better understand the extent to which various forecasters have forecasting skill, we have developed a ranking methodology to rank and grade market forecasters. This study builds upon a previous study by the CXO Advisory Group in several directions. In particular, we distinguish forecasts by their specificity, rather than considering all predictions and forecasts equally important, and we also analyze the impact of the number of forecasts made by a particular forecaster. Across all forecasts, the accuracy is around 48%. Also, the distribution of forecasting ac- curacy is very similar to the proverbial bell curve implying that the outcomes are due to ran- domness. This is further acknowledged by the outcomes of the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test. We observed that two-thirds of forecasts predict short-term returns and as far as only a month, and the remaining one-third predict periods over one month. Following the more random nature of short-term returns, this is another argument supporting our findings of random performance of forecasters, and that existence of little skill in doing so. Finally, the highest accuracy value is 78.69%, and while only about 6% of forecasters have their accuracy values between 70% and 79%, the majority of forecasters (two-thirds) have an accuracy level below 50%. In brief, our findings and results show that some forecasters have done very well, even more so than reflected in earlier studies, but the majority perform at levels not significantly different than chance, which makes it very difficult to tell if there is any skill present." MY COMMENT WORTHLESS...BS.....but this sort of predictive "stuff" dominates the investing media. INVESTOR BEWARE.
BREAKING NEWS.....if anyone cares. I will be interested to see if the market cares. Apple wins bid to pause Apple Watch ban at US appeals court https://www.reuters.com/legal/apple-wins-bid-pause-apple-watch-ban-us-appeals-court-2023-12-27/
