Looking at the Blood Bath today Altria & Phillip Morris are doing the best in my portfolio , Dividend Stocks Healthcare isn't down much The S&P indexes are down about .75% Hit harder are mid caps And the big losers today small caps AMZN down 1% PLUG down almost 4% well just have to see how bad it get's Guess most people waited till last trading day to Cash in or take losses I'm with "W" it was a fantastic year, no matter what happens today.
I like this little article on one of my holdings. Apple’s stock underperformed top tech peers in 2023 due to longest revenue slide in 22 years https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/29/app...a-cap-peers-in-2023-due-to-revenue-slide.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points In 2023, Apple suffered its longest revenue slide in 22 years, reporting four straight quarters of declining sales. Some of its hardware troubles were tied to the economic environment for smartphones and PCs, but certain issues were Apple specific. Apple didn’t release new iPad models in 2023, and Apple Watches were removed from store shelves days before Christmas. Apple’s stock rallied in 2023, but its performance was outshined by all of its mega-cap tech peers, as the company suffered four straight quarters of declining revenue. It’s the longest such slide for Apple since the dot-com bust of 2001. Some of Apple’s troubles this year were due to a bad economic environment for phones and computers. Over the summer, total smartphone sales were the slowest in more than a decade. But Apple also dealt with some company-specific issues. Apple didn’t release new iPad models in 2023, the first time that’s happened in a calendar year since the product was launched in 2010. Without new models, Apple has less to promote, and older versions of the product don’t see official price cuts that boost sales. Earlier this month, all current model iPads were shipping from Apple’s website in a day, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. That’s a sign of weak demand because with the hottest products, Apple doesn’t have enough supply to ship that quickly. In fiscal 2023, which ended in September, Apple’s iPad revenue dropped 3.4% to $28.3 billion. On a unit basis, iPad sales were even worse, falling 15%, according to a recent estimate from Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan. Apple doesn’t report unit sales. To make matters worse, new Apple Watch models were removed from Apple stores in the U.S. days before Christmas over an intellectual property dispute. After a late December appeal, the devices have been returned to store shelves, but Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Apple lost about $135 million in sales per day during the brief ban. Even for Apple’s new products, like Mac computers, consumers showed less interest in opening their wallets for devices with minor upgrades. Sales of Mac PCs and laptops fell nearly 27% to $10.2 billion in fiscal 2023. Unit sales declined 11%, according to Bank of America’s estimate. Apple shares still managed to jump 49% for the year as of Thursday’s close, topping the Nasdaq’s 44% gain. However, investors were better off betting on any of the other most-valuable tech companies. Nvidia shares more than tripled this year, and Meta climbed almost 200%. Tesla’s stock more than doubled, Amazon rose 83%, Alphabet jumped 59% and Microsoft gained 57%. In order to return to revenue growth and support its $3 trillion market cap, Apple needs some new products to hit and global demand for smartphones and laptops to recover. A big test will come early next year, when Apple’s first mixed-reality headset — the $3,499 Vision Pro — hits the market. “We believe success with the Vision Pro is less about 2024 and more about its longer-term potential,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note this month. Assuming Apple ships 400,000 headsets, Vision Pro revenue could be about $1.4 billion next year, according to an estimate from UBS analyst David Vogt. He called the sum “relatively immaterial.” Enthusiasm will be the key. The Vision Pro is Apple’s first completely new device since it announced the Apple Watch, and it will be sold through Apple stores. The headset could generate foot traffic and buzz for Apple’s existing products. And there’s a chance that it catches on enough to show that Apple has the lead when it comes to the future of computing. Some problems are fixable Looking overseas, Apple would like to see an easing of tensions between the U.S. and China. In 2023, Apple made significant progress diversifying its centers of production away from mainland China and into countries like Vietnam and India. But its moves to expand its supply chain appear to have awakened an impulse in the Chinese government to classify Apple as a foreign company. The White House called reports that Chinese government agencies told their employees not to bring iPhones to work “retaliation.” The Chinese government has denied them. Yet analysts are starting to worry that Chinese demand for iPhones, especially in the current quarter, is flagging. The iPhone remains Apple’s most important hardware product, accounting for about half of total company revenue. “Heading into the holiday season, iPhone unit demand remains the key near-term debate amidst macro woes and concerns around potential share loss in China on the resurgence of Huawei,” Citi analyst Atif Malik wrote in a note this month. Despite its struggles, Apple remains a juggernaut. The company recorded $383 billion in total revenue in fiscal 2023 and earned nearly $97 billion in net income. Because the smartphone and PC markets were in retreat, Apple gained market share in some countries, where rivals saw steeper declines. In February, Apple said it had 2 billion devices in use, a closely watched metric that investors see as a predictor of future sales from software and services. Apple is preparing new iPads for next year, which could boost demand, according to Bloomberg. The company has submitted a software update for its watches to the U.S. government that it hopes will clear up the intellectual property dispute that briefly banned sales. IPhones still have a speed advantage over Huawei’s new devices, partially thanks to import restrictions on chips and chip equipment. In November, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said the company’s December quarter — its biggest of the year — will be flat compared with last year. He warned that Macs, Wearables and iPads would see a sales drop. But according to analyst estimates, the total sales declines are in the rearview mirror, with mild growth expected in the first half of the year and acceleration after that. “Overall, the downturn appears to be over, and we believe it is time to see mild growth,” Bank of America analyst Simon Woo wrote in a report this month." MY COMMENT STILL....a great company. Stockholders saw good gains this year.......if you can avoid the greed of comparing the company to the absolute top market gainers this year. In the end it is all about.......the PORTFOLIO as a whole......and this company is a key stock in my little seven stock portfolio. Apple is one of the most......tied to China....companies. They need to focus TOTALLY on getting out of China. The.....MYTH.....of seeing china as a huge long term market is a fools pursuit. They will suck you in and once they have your business model, manufacturing process, and technology........BY THEFT......they will no longer need you or your products. After all they are a COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP.....dont complain when the government screws you.
Just to beat on a dead horse for a while....and...to be clear. My default strategy when or if China invades Taiwan....will be to simply sit, hold, and do nothing. Remain fully invested. The danger of taking some immediate action....will be if the conflict does not last long and/or is resolved. In that case it will be a very nasty investor WHIPLASH....for those that bail.
We were 100% green until about an hour ago when one of our stocks dipped it's toe into the red. It's still going to be a great ending to an entirely OK year. With everything that has happened this year, it could have been a whole lot worse. I'm pleased with where we are.
Great to see OMR, T16, Tire and everyone else in here posting wrapping up this FANTASTIC year. This was a much needed boost to, it seems, almost everybody. certainly covering all the tremendous losses of last year. so drink up you guys, we all deserve it for simply doing NOTHING!
FINAL COUNTDOWN....to the end of investing year 2023. In about 40 minutes...the big gains will all be locked in as part of the historical record. Or as the Vice Principal used to warn us......your Permanent record". Ok as I was typing....we are now down to the final.....39 minutes.
My thread isn't about performance. So, I will soil you thread with a 2023 performance analysis that is irrelevant to anyone who might read. We gained 1.1% today. A year end miracle. All positions were green until 11am, at which time one started down to end the day at -1.3%. The rest remain strong green for an overall gain. What a year. I have absolutely no idea why our portfolio performed as it did. It doesn't make sense that it took off when it did. In response, I have decided to do continue to do nothing. In fact, I will probably remain invested for the long term.
Well here is the year end numbers for the BIG AVERAGES. DOW +8.83% SP500 +24.23% NASDAQ 100 +53.81% NASDAQ +43.42% RUSSELL +15.09% BIG NUMBERS for all except the DOW.
My numbers: Total Account +45.44% SP500 Index fund +24.43% Fidelity Contra Fund +39.85% I need to double check the fund numbers tonight to make sure these are right.
My investing goals: 1. Average at least 10% annual gain over the long term. Check. 2. Beat the SP500 this year. Check. 3. Beat the SP500 over the long term. Check. Number one is my PRIMARY investing goal. it will double my money every 7.2 years. Number two is an aspirational goal....sometimes possible sometimes not. Number three is just reality for me.....I am nicely beating the SP500 over the long term for at least the past 33 years.
My YTD return for 2024.........0.00%. A fresh start and a new year. If we can string together a couple of good years in a row we will be way ahead of the game. I DO NOT expect 2024 to be a repeat of the HUGE gains of 2023. I would be happy with anything between 10% and 20%. Above 20%....would be AMAZING.
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE. Year 2023 is locked in...in the bag. Lets come back to the short week next week refreshed and ready to kick ass.
THE....story of the year for 2023. Tech stocks just wrapped up one of their best years in past two decades after 2022 slump https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/29/tech-stocks-wrap-up-2023-rally-after-last-years-slump.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The Nasdaq climbed 43% in 2023, one of its best performances in two decades. Similar to the rallies in 2009 and 2003, the Nasdaq was coming off a brutal year for investors. This year’s bounceback was led by huge gains in chipmaker Nvidia and Facebook parent Meta. Tech stocks rebounded from a disastrous 2022 and lifted the Nasdaq to one of its strongest years in the past two decades. After last year’s 33% plunge, the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished 2023 up 43%, its best year since 2020, which was narrowly higher. The gain was also just shy of the index’s performance in 2009. Those are the only two years with bigger gains dating back to 2003, when stocks were coming out of the dot-com crash. The Nasdaq is now just 6.5% below its record high it reached in November 2021. Across the industry, the big story this year was a return to risk, driven by the Federal Reserve halting its interest rate hikes and a more stable outlook on inflation. Companies also benefited from the cost-cutting measures they put in place starting late last year to focus on efficiency and bolstering profit margins. “Once you have a Fed that’s backing off, no mas, in terms of rate hikes, you can get back to the business of pricing companies properly — how much money do they make, what kind of multiple do you put on it,” Kevin Simpson, founder of Capital Wealth Planning, told CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Tuesday. “It can continue into 2024.” While the tech industry got a big boost from the macro environment and the prospect of lower borrowing costs, the emergence of generative artificial intelligence drove excitement in the sector and pushed companies to invest in what’s viewed as the next big thing. Nvidia was the big winner in the AI rush. The chipmaker’s stock price soared 239% in 2023, as large cloud vendors and heavily funded startups snapped up the company’s graphics processing units (GPUs), which are needed to train and run advanced AI models. In the first three quarters of 2023, Nvidia generated $17.5 billion in net income, up more than sixfold from the prior year. Revenue in the latest quarter tripled. Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, said in March that AI’s “iPhone moment” has begun. “Startups are racing to build disruptive products and business models, while incumbents are looking to respond,” Huang said at Nvidia’s developers conference. “Generative AI has triggered a sense of urgency in enterprises worldwide to develop AI strategies.” ‘Relatively early stages’ Consumers got to know about generative AI thanks to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which the Microsoft-backed company released in late 2022. The chatbot allowed users to type in a few words of text and start a conversation that could produce sophisticated responses in an instant. Developers started using generative AI to create tools for booking travel, creating marketing materials, enhancing customer service and even coding software. Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon touted their hefty investments in generative AI as they embedded the tech across product suites. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on his company’s earnings call in October that generative AI will likely produce tens of billions of dollars in revenue for Amazon Web Services in the next few years, adding that Amazon is using the models to forecast inventory, establish transportation routes for drivers, help third-party sellers create product pages and help advertisers generate images. “We have been surprised at the pace of growth in generative AI,” Jassy said. “Our generative AI business is growing very, very quickly. Almost by any measure it’s a pretty significant business for us already. And yet I would also say that companies are still in the relatively early stages.” Amazon shares climbed 81% in 2023, their best year since 2015. Microsoft investors enjoyed a rally this year unlike anything they’d seen since 2009, with shares of the software company climbing 58%. In addition to its investment in OpenAI, Microsoft integrated the technology into products like Bing, Office and Windows. Copilot became the brand for its broad generative AI service, and CEO Satya Nadella described Microsoft last month as “the Copilot company.” “Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI and subsequent product innovation through 2023 has resulted in a market dynamic shift,” Michael Turrin, a Wells Fargo analyst who recommends buying the stock, wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. “Many now view MSFT as the outright leader in the early AI wars (even ahead of market share leader AWS).” Meanwhile, Microsoft has been cranking out profits at a historic rate. In its latest earnings report, Microsoft said its gross margin exceeded 71% for the first time since 2013, when Steve Ballmer ran the company. Microsoft has found ways to more efficiently run its data centers and has lowered reliance on hardware, resulting in higher margins for the segment containing Windows, Xbox and search. After Nvidia, the biggest stock pop among mega-cap tech companies was in shares of Meta, which jumped almost 200%. Nvidia and Meta were by far the two top performers in the S&P 500. Meta’s rally was sparked in February, when CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who founded the company in 2004, said 2023 would be the company’s “year of efficiency” after the stock plummeted 64% in 2022 due largely to three straight quarters of declining revenue. The company cut more than 20,000 jobs, proving to Wall Street it was serious about streamlining its expenses. Then growth returned as Facebook picked up market share in digital advertising. For the third quarter, Meta recorded expansion of 23%, its sharpest increase in two years. Uber wasn’t around during the dot-com crash. The ride-hailing company was founded in 2009, during the depths of the financial crisis, and became a tech darling in the ensuing years, when investors favored innovation and growth over profit. Uber went public in 2019, but for a long time battled the notion that it could never be profitable because so much of its revenue went to paying drivers. But the economic model finally began to work late last year, for both its rideshare and food delivery businesses. That all allowed Uber to achieve a major investor milestone earlier this month, when the stock was added to the S&P 500. Members of the index must have positive earnings in the most recent quarter and over the prior four quarters in total, according to S&P’s rules. Uber reported net income of $221 million on $9.29 billion in revenue for its third quarter, and in the past four quarters altogether, it generated more than $1 billion in profit. Uber shares climbed to a record this week and jumped 149% for the year. The stock, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, finished the year as the sixth-biggest gainer in the S&P 500. Despite the tech rally in 2023, there was a dearth of new opportunities for public investors during the year. After a dismal 2022 for tech IPOs, very few names came to market in 2023. The three most notable IPOs — all took place during a one-week stretch in September. For most late-stage companies in the IPO pipeline, more work needs to be done. The public market remains unwelcoming for cash-burning companies that have yet to show they can be sustainably profitable, which is a problem for the many startups that raised mountains of cash during the zero-interest days of 2020 and 2021. Even for profitable software and internet companies, multiples have contracted, meaning the valuation startups achieved in the private market will require many of them to take a haircut when going public. Byron Lichtenstein, a managing director at venture firm Insight Partners, called 2023 “the great reset.” He said the companies best positioned for IPOs are unlikely to debut until the back half of 2024 at the earliest. In the meantime, they’ll be making necessary preparations, such as hiring independent board members and spending on IT and accounting to make sure they’re ready. “You have this dynamic of where expectations were in ’21 and the prices that were paid then,” Lichtenstein said in an interview. “We’re still dealing with a little bit of that hangover.”" MY COMMENT An amazing year for investors that were heavy into the BIG CAP tech companies. I expect more of the same next year....although the gains will probably be less spectacular. It would be very difficult to put up another year like 2023.
Yes! It’s a DATE - 2024! let’s do it all over again. A big toast to all the guys in this thread, and a reminder, we are having this New Years gala at Old Man Ram’s mansion, W is jamming with his band, I’m loading up the drinks and Emmett is handling DJ duties. come one, come all! let’s party like it’s 1999. … Hit it MAESTRO!
I was down a full point but rebounded this afternoon to -.60% ARGH ! Some interesting numbers, I oversee some 529 accounts for my daughters, at Edward Jones, and much to their disapproval I have been trimming the number of Funds in the accounts. They are American Funds, and I have been selling the "Global Stuff" in favor of the US only Funds. And getting rid of the Bond Funds and US Treasury Funds in favor of equity funds. I believe we talked about this last year. I have been increasing the Large Cap and Large Cap Growth holdings. The 3 American Funds I have been favoring are: Investment Co of America Fund (CICAX) Large Blend Growth of America Fund (CGFAX) Large US Growth AMCAP (CAFAX) 90% US Large Cap So in essence, doing almost exactly what they said had been happening in the article By doing this I have been able to increase the return on the accounts by almost 50% , from 16% to 24% In 2021 the accounts returned 7.4% or roughly 1/3 (31%) the return of the S&P500 at 23.46% after my rebalancing: 2023 YTD on the accounts 22.57% ytd or roughly 85% of the S&P500 at 26.63% Bear in mind you do need some liquidity in these accounts and the fund fees are a little high. ( like 1%) Thank You WXYZ !! College 529 accounts are a great way to save for your child's OR grandchild's education. They grow tax free , and if you use the money for QUALIFIED education expenses the GAINS ARE TAX FREE Just like investing in the market, time is of the essence, the sooner you start the better. You can actually start a 529 BEFORE the child is born, name the parent as the beneficiary initially, then transfer the account to the child when they have a social security number (you need a SS number to open these accounts). Transfers within the family are tax free. As a matter of fact, transfers within THE FAMILY include, the beneficiaries children, siblings, aunts ,uncles, and cousins !
Looking forward to the big NEW YEARS party at Oldmanram's mansion. I hope we dont end up like "The Hangover".....again. After last years party at Zukodany's place it was about a week before any of us knew where we were.....and could manage to get home. My wife is still pissed off about that one.
The key phrase being......"dont recall". You were definately there...Tom. At least no one ended up with a facial tattoo. But I have a vague memory of you and some piercings being somehow involved.
I thought those holes were left over from my tour of the Arrow stapler factory. If I had a nickel for every time I've been roofied, I would have no idea how many nickels I have.
A nice little TIMELESS article. 4 Timeless Investing Principles That Never Change https://dariusforoux.com/investing-principles/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "After years of investing, there have been several investing principles I learned regarding the stock market. One of them is this: Good investing is not about understanding the numbers; it’s about understanding human behavior. Human behavior is driven by emotions. Which is why the economy and markets are not predictable. As I’m writing this in December 2023, we’re still waiting for a recession that many pundits have been predicting for two years. I recently read Morgan Housel’s book, Same As Ever, which is about all the things in the world that don’t change. After all, those are the only things we can really count on. As Housel writes, this is the reason we can’t predict the future: “We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter.” So for passive investors, it’s best to look out for investing elements that never really change. And then use that knowledge to buy peace of mind. When you have peace of mind, you can focus on building wealth. Here are four of those things about investing that never change. 1. Successful Investing Requires Doing Nothing Action is not always equal to progress. Investing is an art. And it sometimes requires doing nothing, even if you’re itching to take action. The value investor, Mohnish Pabrai, once said:1 “The single biggest advantage a value investor has is not IQ. It’s patience and waiting. Waiting for the right pitch, and waiting for many years for the right pitch.” Investing is a game of patience and discipline. A smart investor knows how to resist the urge to react to every market fluctuation and news headline. Here’s the thing: the market will always have its ups and downs. And unless we’re really deep in an industry, we are unlikely to predict what kind of world disaster might happen (like Covid) or what new technology would come out. And even folks in an industry don’t make accurate decisions much. Otherwise, every industry expert should be rich from the stock market. That’s why the key to successful investing is to stay the course, remain patient, and resist the urge to make impulsive decisions. 2. The Best Strategy is the Simplest Strategy Like most things in life, simplicity wins over complexity. As of Q2 2023, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has over $348 billion invested in just 48 stocks.2 This shows that you don’t need a complex portfolio with hundreds of positions to achieve investment success. In fact, the opposite is often true. Consider the following: Focus: A concentrated portfolio allows you to focus your attention on a select group of companies that you understand well. Likewise, if you’re investing in the S&P 500 index (which tracks the stock performance of the 500 largest companies in the US), you free yourself from having to watch the markets every single day. Alignment: The best investment strategy is the one that aligns with your character and investment style. Warren Buffett is a successful investor because his investment style aligns with his nature. Patience: Many people lack the patience to pick stocks and would be better off investing in low-cost index funds. Most people wouldn’t enjoy watching out for price changes every single day. We all have lives to live, careers to work on, and relationships to grow. Only the people who are working as traders can afford the time to carefully watch their investments. That’s why passive investing is key: You leverage the market growth to your benefit. Then prevent risk by investing in a basket of the best stocks. 3. Stick to Low Costs and Fees The management fee for a mutual fund (a basket of stocks selected by fund managers) typically ranges between 0.5% and 1% of the total value of the fund each year. An annual fee of 0.5% might seem small. But that’s a constant amount you’ll lose over time. The fees would compound over the years. Just imagine investing $500 every month in the S&P 500 index for your retirement. And you kept that up for 35 years before you retired. The S&P 500 index has an average annual return of 10.7% in the past 30 years.3 That means your $500 monthly investment would likely turn into $2,116,045 by the end of year 35. With compounding, your total fees would amount to $239,588. $239,588 — lost. You could’ve used that money for a long vacation abroad, a major house upgrade, a luxury car, or extra backup funds. Therefore, it’s crucial to choose investment options with low costs and fees. This includes not only the expense ratios of the funds you invest in but also transaction costs, taxes, and any other fees associated with your investment account. 4. The Stock Market is More Emotional, Less Logical In the short term, the stock market is emotion-driven. Fear and greed are powerful forces that can cause investors to make irrational decisions. This leads to a lot of price volatility. But in the long term, the market tends to reflect the intrinsic value of companies. This principle serves as a reminder to look beyond the short-term noise and focus on the long-term fundamentals of the companies we invest in. As Warren Buffett said: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” As investors, we should strive to be on the right side of this transfer. Try to stick to a long-term investing strategy. And keep emotions out of your investment decisions as much as you can. Some things remain the same despite all the changes The news always talks about the things that change. And that’s fine. Change is always happening around the world. But focusing too much on the news warps our perspective. So it’s best to remind yourself about the nature of the stock market: The New York Stock Exchange has been operating for over a hundred years. It’s likely going to stay for another hundred more, or longer than our lifetimes. The market goes up and down every year. But when you look at the past 30 years, it’s consistently been going up. Despite wars, pandemics, and so forth. Meanwhile, things like human nature generally stay the same. And only those who can stick to a sustainable long-term investing strategy can thrive." MY COMMENT Some GREAT CLASSIC advice here. it is echoed through this thread constantly by many posters. Ignore this at your peril.
