My first bit of green for 2024. I ended the day with GOOGL in the green. Everything else red....as the new year profit taking continues. I also got beat by the SP500 today....but very close....I lost out by 0.07%. A medium level loss for me today. Time for a positive day tomorrow....there is too much on sale right now.
Well I did gain .10% today on the strength of VLO. I was up quite a bit 90 min before close but then DE cratered and NVDA was no help either. G
We are down a tick, on the day. This brings an end to our perfect investing year. Daily cheer leading may not be my thing.
HERE....is the perfect example of investor......and....human behavior. Due Diligence Lessons from the ‘HyperVerse’ A non-existent CEO, celebrity endorsements and impossible returns. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ary/due-diligence-lessons-from-the-hyperverse (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Well friends, it is the dawn of a new year, when many people take stock of their finances and consider whether everything is in good order—or it is time for a change. For some, that change means updating their asset allocation to match changes in their goals or needs. For others, that can mean seeking an investment pro to work with. We have written a lot about this over the years, with handy tips on doing due diligence and learning all about a wealth manager’s history, processes and values. That advice is timeless, so we won’t rehash it—instead, allow us to share a mind-boggling story we read today in hopes it will help you not accidentally sign on to a scam. Ponzi schemes are serious business. Well, not serious business in practice—the opposite, really—but serious risks for investors to mind. Fisher Investments Founder and Executive Chairman Ken Fisher wrote the book on them in the Madoff scandal aftermath: How to Smell a Rat. It details the common threads among scams and red flags to watch out for. That includes too-good-to-be-true returns, appeals to certain affinity groups, advertised celebrity connections, flashy jargon, opaque tactics, charismatic principals and a business model that requires turning over custody of your money to an entity that isn’t a registered, regulated bank or brokerage firm. So of course we clicked on this marvelous Guardian headline Wednesday morning: “Chief Executive of Collapsed Crypto Fund Hyperverse Does Not Appear to Exist.” And there we found some excellent investigative reporting by Guardian Australia senior correspondent Sarah Martin, who went down the rabbit hole of a failed cryptocurrency fund, HyperVerse, that may or may not have been related to another collapsed bitcoin company, Blockchain Global. The latter is currently in liquidation, and its founders are under investigation by Aussie securities regulators, with no charges presently filed. These same founders appeared in promotional materials for HyperVerse, but one is distancing himself from the fund and the other hasn’t commented. In reporting this story, Martin dug up some of that promotional material and found a presentation slide introducing HyperVerse’s purported CEO, Steven Reece Lewis. It was a paint-by-numbers resume full of just-right buzzwords and an intriguing personal history. Econ major. Former Goldman Sachs derivatives trader. Founder of two companies. All things one could easily verify. So Guardian Australia tried … and came up empty. No school records at his alleged universities. No records in the UK’s business registry or the SEC. The presentation claims he sold his first company to Adobe, but Adobe “has no record of any acquisition of a company owned by a Steven Reece Lewis in any of its public SEC filings.”[ii] Goldman had no record. And Reece Lewis himself had no online presence outside a Twitter profile started one month before HyperVerse’s launch—no LinkedIn, no nothing. A figment, a ghost, impossible for Guardian Australia to contact for comment. The fake CEO part of this is novel, but the rest isn’t. This slide was designed to hook people with the right language and biographical details—just enough to suspend disbelief. People were supposed to see reputable names like Goldman and Adobe and glean credibility. Heck, the slide touting his “resume” even has the word credibility typed at the top right. Investors were to look at the picture of Reece Lewis, see a bit of grey hair at his temples and hairline, the un-flashy yet fitted navy suit and think, yes, this is a serious and successful gentleman who in 2016 clearly “saw the disruptive potential of blockchain technology, and predicted that the crypto market would be the key driving force in economic growth over the next decade.” They were not supposed to say to themselves, “Self, what good is it to have predicted this in 2016, by which time bitcoin had already been through one hype cycle and blockchain frenzy was in full swing?”[iii] So lesson one: Don’t fall for buzzwords or take flashy resumes on faith. Do a little homework to ensure the person to whom you will entrust your money is an actual flesh-and-blood human who is who they say they are. Which brings us to lesson two: Don’t lean on celebrity endorsements. We all saw this first-hand with FTX and its liberal use of celebrity connections and advertisements. Less flashy testimonials are no better. In this case, HyperVerse touted video endorsements from Steve Wozniak, Chuck Norris, a comedian named Jim Norton and ex-boy bander Lance Bass. “The Norris ‘shout out’ to HyperVerse states that ‘under the leadership of [nonexistent] CEO Steven, HyperVerse will be the leader of metaverse space.’ Wozniak said: ‘I’m here to support Steven and HyperVerse,’ and ‘I can’t wait for the HyperVerse.’” Guardian Australia contacted all four for comment. None replied. But the paper’s simple sleuthing revealed all are on Cameo, where you can hire celebrities to film short shout-outs for birthdays and other things. Apparently companies have also used this site to get celebrities to read marketing scripts, which seems to be a plausible explanation here. The likelihood every actor or musician on Cameo researches the company behind every marketing script they are paid to read seems, well, low. Time is money, ya know? Lastly, applying even a smidge of scrutiny to HyperVerse’s claims should have revealed its high Ponzi scheme likelihood. “Investors in HyperVerse were able to buy ‘memberships’ with minimum returns of 0.5% a day, with a 300% return over 600 days. Incentives were also offered for recruiting new members.” Not only is this a textbook example of too-good-to-be-true returns, but it is one of the most obvious pyramid schemes we have seen in a long while. It calls to mind that scene from The Office where Michael Scott is pitching his new business venture to the fine folks at Dunder Mifflin. He draws a diagram showing how you get more and more money the more recruits you have under you, and Jim walks up to the white board and draws a big pyramid over it. Here, see for yourself. There is a temptation here to see all of this as funny because it is so ridiculous. But participants lost nearly $2 billion. People really do fall for this stuff because the pitches and propaganda are designed to override critical thought via emotion. Your best defense is to always turn your brain back on, be aware of the red flags and hunt for them. They will usually be there, in plain sight, if not quite as absurd as this example." MY COMMENT You have got to love human behavior. Smart people do dumb things every day. Dumb people...posing as smart people...do dumb things every day. GREED, greed, greed.....is the root of most financial schemes. It never changes. I recently saw a person that I know lose $500,000 in a bitcoin trading scheme. It happened even after their financial advisor and a number of other people, myself included, told them that what they were doing had EVERY HALLMARK of a scam.
I like this little article with a positive message at the end. MAKING THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR NVIDIA AS THE NEXT NVIDIA https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-end-of-google.com1/rcm NOT....a lot new in this little article...but worth a quick read. It beings to mind something that I do in my BIG CAP focused investing. I dont look for the.....NEXT GREAT THING. Why would I when I can simply invest in the.....GREAT THING....itself.
I LOVE this article as an example of the financial media. Here we are just TWO days into the investing year 2024.....and GASP....it is all over with. Why Santa just poured cold water on a bullish 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-santa-just-poured-cold-water-on-a-bullish-2024-110042811.html COME ON MAN....does anyone believe that the past....TWO DAYS....have now set us on the path for a losing 2024? SELL, SELL, SELL. No I am NOT selling.......I held though 2022 and all the brutality of that year. I am certainly not gong to panic after two days of 2024. In fact.....up or down....I am not going to sell at all. I am a fully invested all the time long term investor.
Another market correction, good !! I felt the market was overvalued, It still is , depending on your point of view. But we have gotten comfortable with the present valuations , and High PE ratio's, and things are looking pretty good out there for growth in the economy. Maybe time to do a little buying ...... Maybe..... thoughts ? I had to switch views, YTD - 1.94%
LOTS of really....FUNNY...content today. Or perhaps it is just the mood I am in today. I LOVE this one: Alibaba was once a Wall Street darling. After plunging 75% over three years, what’s next? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/04/alibaba-was-once-a-wall-street-darling-whats-next.html MY COMMENT The article goes on and on and on....as a laundry list of all the problems and issues that are.....supposedly..... impacting the HUGE losses in Alibaba share prices. They include: Canceled IPO plans. Management shake up. Slowing economic growth. Internal company issues. Eroding market position. Management turmoil. Mismanagement on the cloud side. Are they too big? Are they nimble enough? Etc, etc, etc. The ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM that is not mentioned.....the company is TOTALLY under the thumb and control of the Chinese government.....the most brutal communist dictatorship in the world today. HELLO........McFly. I LOVE how we.....PRETEND.....that these Chinese companies are REAL businesses with real financials. If it was not so pathetic it would be funny. NO......I will not ivnest in any Chinese company. It is bad enough that all the big cap American companies have allowed themselves to be so involved in......and subject to the whims of...... China
I Just read that article "W" the one on Santa and cold water It really annoys me when a headline is "Why the market blah blah blah" or the "Reason for market blah blah blah" And all they do is state a bunch of statistics. Total BULLCRAP . Like most articles out there, And "W" I agree , it's the 3rd trading day of the year, A TREND HAS STARTED , ya right. sarcasm I guess when they run out of actual content they resort to voodoo economic analysis
Speaking of big cap and China. Apple Hit With Second Downgrade This Week on iPhone Worries https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-hit-second-downgrade-week-113039878.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. was already the least-loved big tech stock on Wall Street. Growing concerns over iPhone sales have now triggered a second downgrade this week, cementing analysts’ cautious approach. Piper Sandler & Co.’s Harsh Kumar cut his Apple rating on Thursday, citing a weak macro environment in China that will dampen demand for iPhones. “We are concerned about handset inventories,” Kumar said in a note, lowering his recommendation for Apple to neutral from overweight after holding a bullish view since March 2020. “Growth rates have peaked for unit sales,” he said. Kumar’s downgrade follows a more bearish move by peers at Barclays Plc, where analysts led by Tim Long cut their rating to underweight on Tuesday. Coming into 2024, Apple was the big tech stock with the least number of bullish recommendations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Piper Sandler’s downgrade now pushes the company’s buy-equivalent ratio down even further — with the percentage of analysts bullish on the company at a three-year low. Apple was the only big tech firm to see revenues contract for the past four quarters. Wall Street is currently anticipating revenue growth of just 3.6% in fiscal 2024 and profit expansion of 7.9%, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The stock, which had rallied nearly 50% last year, has stumbled in the first sessions of 2024. It has slid 5.2% this year, wiping off more than $155 billion in market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The shares are now on the brink of breaching into the oversold territory as they’re set to extend losses for a fourth consecutive session, falling about 1% on Thursday. Nearly unanimously bullish on big tech, Wall Street is more cautious when it comes to Apple. The stock has attracted only 33 buy-equivalent recommendations. That pales in comparison to Amazon.com Inc.’s 68, Meta Platforms Inc.’s 66 and the 59 bullish ratings for Nvidia Corp." MY COMMENT When I see a stock that was UP 50% in a year......when they reported four quarters of revenue contraction....it makes me wonder what will happen when the growth starts to happen again. NO.....I have no issues with this company. It is a company that manufactures and sells.....PRODUCTS......I see this as simply a product cycle issue. Based on the history of this company it is my view that it will resolve. These sorts of price target announcements....are simply short term based....analysis. Apple is and will remain the MOST DISRESPECTED big cap tech stock in the marketplace.....until they are not.
The financial media is uniformly NEGATIVE this week. NO FED rate cuts yet. Job data might be bad. Apple is in trouble. Inflation might come back. Etc, etc, etc. the markets and investors are being hammered every day all day long. Is it any wonder that people are skittish and nervous. It is all so funny and pathetic at the same time. What is not funny is all the people that are no doubt influenced by this constant flow of negativity.
Being a share holder of COSTCO....I really LOVE their business model, management, and this little article. Costco Sells Everything From Gas to Gold Bars. But It Gets 73% of Its Profit From Somewhere You Wouldn't Expect. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-sells-everything-gas-gold-095500226.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has become one of the world's most successful retailers. Shareholders have reaped huge rewards over time, as Costco stock has soared 72,600% since going public in the early 1980s. A big part of Costco's popularity has come from the fact that you can get just about anything you want there. The warehouse retailer is probably best known for its cost-conscious rotisserie chickens and hot dog meals. Customers also like to stock up on essentials like toilet paper while they're shopping, and the company's outside gas stations offer an inexpensive way to fuel up after making the drive. Yet much of the fun of shopping at Costco comes from the wide assortment of product releases you'll find. Everything from furniture to gold bullion is finding a place online and on warehouse floors. It's natural to assume that Costco's profits come from its decisions to stock popular merchandise. Yet retailers across the industry know how hard it is to keep margins wide, especially on commodity items that are easy to get anywhere. That's why the true secret of Costco's success comes from one simple decision that nearly all of its customers take for granted -- yet which contributes the vast majority of its profits each and every quarter. Selling stuff doesn't make Costco much money Costco sells massive amounts of products every year. Once you add up a billion rolls of Kirkland Signature Bath Tissue, hundreds of millions of chickens, more than a ton-and-a-half of gold bars, and the rest of the company's sales, Costco brought in $237.7 billion in product sales in fiscal 2023. Yet Costco's business strategy isn't to make a huge amount of money on selling products. Instead, it sets prices low in order to encourage volume purchases, even though it means settling for razor-thin margins. Adjusted gross margin at Costco was just 10.6% in fiscal 2023 when you look solely at merchandise sales and costs. When you include marketing and general overhead expenses, plus Uncle Sam's cut in income taxes, Costco's profit margin last year was just 2.6%. Paying to get in the door Of course, given how much Costco sells, 2.6% of a big number is nothing to shake a stick at. Costco's profits in fiscal 2023 amounted to $6.29 billion. As it turns out, though, $4.58 billion of that profit -- 73% of the total -- had nothing to do with product sales. That money came from the membership fees that customers pay just to enter Costco's retail warehouse locations. Costco currently charges $60 annually for a regular Gold Star membership. This includes two membership cards for access to members of your household, along with the right to make purchases at the retailer's Costco.com e-commerce website. Alternatively, an executive membership is available for $120 per year, which includes benefits and discounts on a number of services, as well as a 2% annual reward on most purchases. Costco has held the line on its membership fees for over six years now, and many now anticipate a further increase. In the past, the warehouse retailer has typically implemented price increases every five years or so. The key is to ensure that any price increase properly balances extra revenue from a higher fee against the risk of having customers choose not to renew their memberships at an elevated cost. Using what you pay for Costco's membership model was innovative when it first started. But it makes sense: Once customers shell out for access, they're going to want to make the best use of it they can. Together with all the other tactics Costco uses to get customers in the door and keep them there to make big purchases, membership has proven to be the key driver of the warehouse retailer's competitive advantage and a big part of the reason for its impressive share-price gains over the decades." MY COMMENT One big thing is necessary to be a HUGE success in a business that operates on a profit margin of 2.6%. WELL....make that two things......big volume.....and most the single most important factor for Costco....GREAT MANAGEMENT that never takes their eye off the ball.
Look what we have here, a green day. After years of investing, not much bothers me anymore. I agree with the previous post that once your gains are so high from years of investing, when the market drops the account still has more than you invested is a much better feeling than when you're starting off and the drop eats money you put in. I do feel slightly better when it is going up vs going down but after year like 2022 where it just wouldn't stop bleeding I can't imagine anything in the near future being any worse. I don't really have any new investing new years resolutions. I do believe I will sell a small portion to purchase a nice 4 door car for the family. The allocation for the sports car I wanted last year fell through so I'm tossing the idea around of getting something a little nicer and sportier than your every day family cruiser. I am a much better saver than spender (most people regard that as a good thing!) so this is a tough decision. So maybe a goal for 2024 could be to find a comfortable balance of still saving and investing but spending a little to increase quality of life a convenience. One of my rules has been not to turn appreciating assets into depreciating assets! I am open to advice on how others make the decision to sell off stocks to make major purchases? One large lump some and buy it cash? Small lump and finance the rest with monthly sales of stock to cover payment? Small lump from stocks and make monthly payment with normal income? I know there are a ton of variables to this but may be a fun jumping board for conversation.
I am in.....IGNORING MODE....right now. I am ignoring the markets this week and today. At least I am seeing some green on th board today with the DOW and the SP500 being positive so far today. The NASDAQ is close to being green. Sooner or later we will have our first green close of the year.
Morning Tiresmoke, Over the past 10 years or so (since I had to start purchasing cars for daughters) I have been using the 50/50 formula 50% down, 50% financed, it keeps the monthly payments at a comfortable level/ price. And I keep a little of that cash invested,, instead of spending it all on a car. Also If you go to a dealership, GENERALLY, they cut a better deal on the price if you finance the car, they are picking up $$ for the financing.
