The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    AJP, I don't think you will get anybody on this board too critique your portfolio. With that said I think you should post your portfolio. It's always good to see what others are thinking. Set a personal goal and work towards that goal, in the end it doesn't really matter what anybody else thinks. Happy Investing!
     
  2. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    • I had XRX through job from more than a decade ago. Held on to it too long. CNDT is part of their acquisition and split. Not sure what to do with it at this time. Fortunately I collected dividends all these years but that does not make up for the loss/missed opportunity.
    • BB and OPK were bad bets from few years ago. Still holding the bag.
    • Everything else is recent like less than a month.
    • I am bullish on DDOG why I have it in the portfolio. That is the only "bet" I have. I consider other investments as responsible.
    • Some of these are meant to be dividend and income streams for future and diversify.
    • Twice the amount of these stocks is in index/mutual funds and twice in CDs. Therefore this individual stock portfolio is only 20% of overall portfolio. All the numbers below are with respect to the individual stock portfolio only. They are 1/5th os what is mentioned from the overall portfolio.

    Symbol Allocation
    MSFT 15.91%
    AMZN 12.88%
    BABA 9.95%
    XRX 9.52%
    AAPL 9.01%
    GOOGL 5.94%
    DDOG 4.43%
    V 4.01%
    JPM 4.01%
    BAC 4.00%
    VYM 3.99%
    ALL 3.85%
    JEPI 2.47%
    TSM 2.01%
    OPK 2.01%
    BNS 1.94%
    KO 1.87%
    CNDT 1.74%
    BB 0.46%
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    THANKS FOR BEING HERE AJP. Please participate and feel free to post. It is nice to hear views and opinions of other investors.

    Well I will somewhat discuss your holdings. As BIGMAIX said.....this just my opinion......NOT investment advice. I am a stranger on an internet message board. Be true to yourself and what and why you are doing what you do.

    First I DO NOT follow a good portion of your stocks........OR........may not be current. But to the extent I have any opinion here it is:

    KO - My preference would be PEP (Pepsi) over coke. Same market for the soft drinks plus the snack food business. In my opinion a stronger company. If I have two companies in the same market niche I am going to choose the BEST.

    BABA - I would NOT own this stock. Way too much China risk. A third world company, in a communist country. Rampant financial and business fraud in China so I would never trust their numbers. In addition I do not believe they have lived up to what people saw in them 5-10 years ago. In my opinion, they are NOT going to be the next Amazon.

    V, JPM, BAC, BNS - Personally I dont like banks and financial stocks. Probably the only two of these that I would hold........ if I had to.......... is V and JPM.

    MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, - All cream of the crop AMERICAN companies that I hold and would hold for the various reasons that I have talked about in this thread.

    BB - (Blackberry) I see no future for this company except perhaps as a MINOR takeover target at some point when they become more and more irrelevant.

    XRX - Would not have any interest in this old school company. I dont follow them but would be surprised if they have any real future although they may be around for a long time. I see them as another takeover target as their business fades or lingers.

    OTHERS - I have no knowledge.

    In general the stocks are ONLY 20% of your investment assets. So not a HUGE factor with that allocation. As to the 20% in CD's I dont know why you have this much in a low interest paying vehicle like a CD. Perhaps because of age or as a safety net, or some other reason? You seem kind of all over the map. Heavy on the banks and financials.

    You seem to have at least three stocks....BB, XRX and OPK, that you are just holding for no good reason. I would sell all three and make a lateral move with those funds into your big tech royalty stocks or into your mutual funds. No reason to just hold onto something for no good reason.

    FOR ME.....the big question would be.......HOW is your portfolio AS A WHOLE performing? Are you anywhere close to equaling or beating the SP500 or any passive index? The other BIG question would be.......what are your investment goals? Is your WHOLE portfolio structured to meet and achieve those goals? Is your portfolio as a whole achieving your investment goals?

    That is about all I have as an OFF THE CUFF view.
     
    #1823 WXYZ, Aug 13, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2020
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LAST day of the week tomorrow......at least for the markets. We need to hang in there for the SP500 to end the week positive. The DOW........dont care as much since it is just a few companies and day to day one company......like CISCO today......can have an over size impact.

    NOT huge.....but decent......green today. And another beat of the SP500 by .86%. Very pleased with the account balances.
     
  5. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    This is an excellent feedback! You laid out things that were back of my mind. Appreciate an honest and candid reply.

    KO - Agree. Not sure why I thought KO is value compared to PEP. I was in dual mind and pulled trigger on KO. I have a friend who works for KO and though he might give me some help.

    BAC - I bought it because Warren Buffet bought it ton and though I can't go wrong with it. It is currently my best performing. lol. 10% up in 3 weeks. Plus the dividend potential.
    BNS - Researched and thought this could be similar to BAC. Not a big upside but felt safe/conservative investment.

    BB - Agree. Position is so small, I am going to cut my losses so that I don't have to think about it.
    XRX - Same thing. I was going to close the position but then just that I saw 10% owner iCahn purchase large amount fo this just recently made me think it has some potential recovery.

    CDs - It is worse. 40% of the portfolio is in CDs. This is because I lost all my money when I first invested my money during .com bust making me very risk averse. Stupid me. XRX/OPK/BB didn't help on the experience much. I am/was a stupid investor. To fix the situation I read couple of highly recommended books recently and I can see how I did everything I wasn't supposed to do. Anyways, it is never too late. On a positive side, I slept well all these years. I am 50 but I am still open to learning.

    HOW is your portfolio AS A WHOLE performing? My 401K and IRA funds did ok. 4-10% range returns. I got rid of low performing funds and put them in total market fund now. My portfolio as a whole has performed pretty poorly. Probably gained 3-4%/annum (factoring in individual stock losses). I want to fix that.
    Are you anywhere close to equaling or beating the SP500 or any passive index? No. Far from it.
    The other BIG question would be.......what are your investment goals? I want to make at least 7% compound gain going forward. I want set it and forget it kind of investments for long term gain. I don't mind ups and downs. I can check on them from time to time but I want companies that will still be there in 5-10-15 years making money.
    Is your WHOLE portfolio structured to meet and achieve those goals? Yes, if stocks return 15% YoY, indexed funds 7% and CDs 3%. A successful financial expert advised me to not put more than 40% in stocks. My portfolio currently shows 45% stocks (including stocks from indexed and mutual funds).
    Is your portfolio as a whole achieving your investment goals? Too early to tell because I bought most of the individual stocks just recently. I suspect it won't.

    As you can see, I am not good at this. right? :)
     
    #1825 AJ P, Aug 13, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2020
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well.......I would say we are ALL in the process of learning no matter how long we have been investing. You know if it was me......I would keep your MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN. I would than put ALL remaining funds that are stock market money into a SP500 Index fund. To me that would be a set it and forget it plan......which is what you are looking for. In doing that I would keep your four greatest companies and let the SP500 do the heavy lifting with the rest of the money.

    I think you would have a pretty good chance to easily hit your goal of at least 7% going forward. Perhaps even 10% if you get the average performance of the SP500. Also if it was me......I would NOT do any market timing. Once I put the money in this plan, I would let it ride for the long term.......till retirement.

    The BIG QUESTION is.......your risk tolerance.

    AND.......there is NO WAY I or anyone else can appreciate your situation in a few posts on a message board. SO......PLEASE......do NOT take anything here as specific investing advice.
     
  7. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    Thanks!
    I am at a point of my life where my risk appetite has increased. I own my home outright, still have a good job, and CDs will pay for 10 years of comfortable survival. I just want to do it as intelligently as possible. Nobody knows future but looking back I should still be able to fell like I took a good decision.
     
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  8. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    What did he suggest you invest the other 60% in? I personally think CDs are a bit of a waste. Maybe they keep up with inflation so you’re just not losing anything by sticking your money there. I have 5% of my portfolio in a bond fund through my 401k and every day it underperforms the S&P. I have changed my future allocations to make bonds 0%. My point being, if only 40% in stocks/index where would the other 60% go?
     
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  9. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    China is a risk. But so is everything. Ali Baba is a financial powerhouse. It dominates. It's not 3rd world. There are Chinese companies which are good. I like Geely.


    Banks and financials have a place in a balanced portfolio. Banks, and Insurance aren't so hot at the moment. That's why you buy low. Look at the Berkshire holdings.

    You could own both. Funds do it. Consumer cyclical funds will hold Coke & Pepsi, Yum & McDonald's, Home Depot and Lowe's..... I pick a sector, pick a few funds, then pick from the top holdings in those funds.

    What have you learned from the dot-com era? What do you think now? CD did not return much, but you still have the money.

    You will be fine. Because you are aware that you need to learn more, and you are seeking the knowledge.
     
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  10. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    Gold/Silver, CDs, HYSA etc. He said even if it doesn't get anything it will keep the value. His comment was with the current situation and volatility. I will ask him what should be the approach if and when correction happens. He things a correction is due in next 6 months.
     
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  11. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Precious metals go down also . Gold dropped today.
     
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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AJP. SEE.......lots of opinions. In fact.......every.........investor is going to have a different opinion. Every investor has different experiences, style, bias, risk tolerance, etc, etc. The KEY.........for you.......will be finding a SIMPLE way to achieve what YOU are trying to achieve.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    MARKETS......are taking a breather today. My accounts are.....DEAD FLAT. BETTER than being down. In the terminology of the "old days" we are taking a day today to "consolidate some of the recent gains". Kind of a slow news, summer, day. We are probably approaching the time.........at least in the "old days"........ when MANY of the East Coast finanial professionals will be on vacation. From about the middle of August till Labor day we will see shallow markets as a result.

    NOW........with the new Robinhood traders and lack of sports betting......we may actually see a more active time period.

    BARING some sort of BIG news item.....I doubt that we will see the August correction that I saw some talking about in the MEDIA recently. I strongly believe that the short term direction is still UP, UP, UP. It is STILL too early for anyone to be thinking or paying any attention to the election. Everyone is ignoring the BIG EVENTS.......3rd quarter earnings in October/November and the ELECTION.
     
  14. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    TINY.......red today. AND.....got beat by the SP500 by another TINY .01%. AND what I consider more IMPORTANT......the SP500 was positive for ANOTHER week by 0.64%. They may not all be in a row.....but.....the SP500 is RACKING UP the positive weeks. Way.....way....more than the negative weeks. I am sure EVERYONE is seeing the results in their portfolio balances.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AJP........"if it was me".....I would keep the four BIG NAMES you own regardless of anything else.....MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN. These are all VERY RARE businesses. Once in a lifetime companies with the ability to PROPEL a portfolio big time for many many years.

    That fund you mention.....FSPGX looks like a pretty good fund. BUT.....as I said...... "if it was me"........ I would use a SP500 Index Fund to get more diversification over the largest, greatest 500 companies in America. Setting up this sort of a portfolio is NOT rocket science and no need to over think things. With a simple portfolio like this you will OUTPERFORM the vast majority of investors. the MAIN THING is to have the fortitude to set it up and let it run for the long term with NO changes and NO market timing.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I was GLAD to see APPLE recover today and hold onto the weeks gains. Lately I can see the ........push/pull.......of the traders buying and selling as the price goes up nicely one day and than down the next day or so. In my opinion.....definately a lot of people trading this stock short term day to day.
     
  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_20200810-211933_kindlephoto-1343823440.png
     
  19. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    Thanks!
    What portion of my overall portfolio should MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN consist of? Right now it is about 8%. Should I increase or stay same? If increase, do DCA or at once now/later?
    I realize it is also part of any S&P fund or for that matter most other funds too.
     
  20. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    I ended green. Just a little bit. But I came out ahead.

    Screenshot_20200805-233813_kindlephoto-1355458091.png

    You will notice that most of the larger, successful funds have the same companies in their top 10 holdings. Different percentage, but mostly the same companies. Every tech fund will hold Apple, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Facebook, Microsoft. As you look at other sectors, it will be the same......Wal*Mart, Home Depot, Coca Cola, United Healthcare, Tesla, Nestle.....the funds manage the portfolio to balance out risks and gains. You can do it for yourself also. Buy the same stocks. Buy on the dip. Sell when price pops to take money. Repeat.

    I think funds are good. Index funds. Funds focused on market sectors. Bond funds. Mutual funds. ETF. Closed End funds. I like funds. But funds are only a part of my portfolio.
     

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