The Long Term Investor

I looked at my account early today....EVERY...stock up very nicely. A really good start to the week. Emphasis on the word....."start".

 

EARNINGS.....yes already. Here are the "tentative" earnings dates for my stocks:

MSFT 1-23-24
AMZN 2-1-24
GOOGL 2-1-24
AAPL 2-1-24
HD 2-20-24
NVDA 2-21-24
COST 3-7-24

No doubt some of these dates will change....but this is what I have on my calendar right now.

 

Yeah......Emmett has ghosted us,.....now that he is some sort of big shot executive.

 

What a day today.....all I can say is........last week? What last week?

I think I have now just about gained back what I lost last week in one day.

NVDA....which counts as two positions in my account....UP by $26 today at a new high of $516.81.

COME ON MARKETS....SHOW US THE MONEY.

 

You are so right tireSmoke. That siting and doing nothing and ignoring all the day to day BS.....is really hard work. Way harder than being a trader or working a real job.

 

I am off to get a haircut. So....I looked at my account early. I will post results when I get back.....but.....I am now POSITIVE for the YTD.

After a week of being in the RED.....I am now GREEN in only one day. More proof that you have to sit and wait.

Good things come to he who waits. AND....there is only one way to capture the EXPLOSIVE days in the market.....actually be fully in the market.

Of course, I should not brag about one day of gains....I have now probably doomed us to a losing week. BUT.....hey....I dont believe in myth or superstition. It is all about....PROBABILITY.

 

I had a HUGE day today. Way into the GREEN. Especially NVIDIA which was UP today by 6.43%....IN ONE DAY. A big move up to $522 per share. A gain of $31.56 in a single day. Talk about explosive.

I also beat the SP500 today by 1.82%. I dont have my account data right here but an definately positive for the year. All it took is one day.

Of course.....we are ONLY five market days into the year...with the 4 day week last week.

 

An irrelevant market day so far. Thank you Samsung. A pure short term market.

So...I will sit and wait and see how it all goes as the day ages.

 

I see we are maturing into the day much nicer at the moment. The losses are much less in the big averages. It was a real knee jerk open today.

 

I dont see much happening today in terms of news or articles. i am finding very little of interest. Here is one little article......on what counts....EARNINGS.

Earnings season will be critical for stocks after rough start to 2024

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earn...ocks-after-rough-start-to-2024-113037699.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The mood going into fourth-quarter earnings season on Wall Street is "meh."

After a blistering rally to end 2023, stocks have stumbled to begin the new year. Apple (AAPL), a bellwether for market vibes these days, has been downgraded by Wall Street strategists twice in the past week over fears of slowing growth. Bets on a March interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve have tapered.

And analysts have cut their earnings projection for S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies by more than usual heading into the reporting period, which kicks off with big banks on Friday.

Consensus estimates are for S&P 500 earnings to grow 1.3% compared to the same quarter last year, a decline from Q3's near 5% year-over-year growth.

Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson believes fourth-quarter results will be a crucial test of investors' belief that the economy will skirt recession as inflation comes down — the so-called soft-landing trade.

"Q4 earnings season should be informative in this respect as it will offer insight into how companies are thinking about the macro backdrop post the Fed's dovish shift," Wilson wrote in a weekly note to clients. "Macro uncertainty has been a key topic of discussion over the past several earnings seasons so it will be critical to see to what extent that uncertainty has subsided post the last FOMC meeting."

While recent signs of a still sound economy have some questioning if that means the Fed will need to be more restrictive with monetary policy, market bulls believe the economic resilience is a welcome sign for earnings.

"We expect S&P 500 firms in aggregate will benefit from continued strong economic growth and subsiding input cost pressures and beat consensus forecasts," Goldman Sachs Chief equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

Kostin's team places consensus expectations for earnings growth at 3% for the fourth quarter. The analysts highlight that in recent quarters, earnings have beat expectations by an average of four percentage points.

While when taken at large, Goldman's point about earnings usually topping expectations is sound, Evercore ISI's Julian Emmanuel provides another reminder to investors: Not everyone is a winner during earnings seasons.

And in the recent market moment, where calls for an economic downturn seem never-ending, signs of weakness in a corporate report have been particularly painful.

Emanuel highlights recent December reports from Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), and Oracle (ORCL). All three saw their stocks fall double digits after disappointing reports. To Emmanuel, these examples show stock picking remains crucial ahead of earnings.

"In an uncertain environment where 'Nothing can go wrong' has been priced into stocks, we expect there to be a premium during earnings season for stocks that have proven to be earnings season winners, dependable reporters, quarter in and quarter out over these last two years where both stocks and earnings have essentially come Full Circle since the S&P 500 market peak on 1/4/2022," Emanuel wrote in a Sunday note to clients.

Bank of America believes the fundamentals revealed during the upcoming reporting period will be crucial to the firm's projection that the S&P 500 will end 2024 at 5,000. The firm believes earnings turned a corner in the third quarter and continued on that trend in the fourth quarter.

"Companies have cut costs throughout the earnings recession," BofA equity strategist Ohsung Kwon told Yahoo Finance. "They have managed margins. Margins went up for the second straight quarter. So I think the momentum is to the upside and if companies talk more positively this earning season, given that the rate pressure and the macro uncertainty has eased somewhat. Now, that's going to be bullish for equities."

Deutsche Bank chief US equity strategist Binky Chadha, sees "big beats" outshining the "pessimistic consensus." In an earnings preview research note, Chadha pointed out that one-off factors like the labor strikes in auto sector and waning COVID demand in healthcare contributed to the larger than normal downward revision for earnings estimates headed into quarterly reports.

"Outside of these lumpy one-off charges, aggregate estimates have been cut by -3.5%, only slightly worse than the typical cut of -3.0% at this stage of earnings seasons historically," Chadha wrote.

Notably, Chadha highlighted that mega-cap growth and technology, which drove a significant portion of the 2023 rally, were the only sectors whose expectations weren't revised downward in the past few months.

But even still, Chadha, who has a 5,100 call on the S&P 500 at year end, has tempered expectations on what a positive fourth-quarter earnings season could mean for the benchmark average.

"The size of the equity rally during earnings seasons has historically been tied largely to market performance and equity positioning going in," Chadha explained in a note to clients. "Despite the robust growth and strong beats we expect this season, the market rally is likely to be tempered by the solid run up in the S&P 500 since the end of the previous earnings season and elevated (but not extreme) equity positioning.""

MY COMMENT

Macro, macro, macro...seems to be the focus. Of course.....to individual investors...it is all SUPER-MICRO, depending on what you own.

I welcome those that are reducing earnings estimates. It will make the BEATS larger and more impressive. I see the earnings this time as about the same as last time......perhaps....better.....based on the general economic improvement and companies moving further away from the pandemic disruptions.

We see the pessimistic consensus above.....and...a bit of the outlier positive thinkers. As usual....REALITY....will be the key.

 

For those that aspire to be serious collectors. I was reading a little article from Heritage Auctions a minute ago....dealing with sports collectables. Many of the TIPS apply to ALL collecting. HERE they are:

"An Informed Buyer Is a Happier, More Confident Collector.
Key takeaway: It takes time to become well-versed in a particular field, but it is worth every bit of the effort and wait.

Buy the Best Quality You Can Afford.
Key takeaway: Collecting offers much more than monetary returns, but focusing on quality can often lead to better financial rewards and personal satisfaction.

Engage With Reputable Auction Houses, Dealers and Marketplaces.
Key takeaway: The people you meet along the way are often just as important as the items you pursue.

GOATs and Grails Are Often the ‘Blue Chips’ of the Hobby.
Key takeaway: The names and collectibles consistently found near the top of the demand charts are the wisest choice for prudent buyers.

Beware of the Temptation to Become a Bargain Hunter.
Key takeaway: In the world of collectibles, become a savvy buyer, not an overly frugal one.

When Opportunity Knocks, Open the Door.
Key takeaway: As your palate becomes more refined and buying opportunities are presented, you will know a good one when you see it.

Break Free of Preconceived Notions.
Key takeaway: Collecting experience and historical data can be invaluable, but do not let the past immobilize you as a buyer.

Prioritize ‘The Plan’.
Key takeaway: Give yourself the gift of direction; it often leads to a better collecting experience.

Enjoy All the Hobby Has to Offer.
Key takeaway: Collecting means different things to different people, but the common denominator should always be enjoyment.

MY COMMENT

I would add to the above.....in areas like art.....buy DEAD ARTISTS where the market place has set their value...not galleries and agents. Or...at least buy artists that have auction records.....gallery prices are often very inflated.

 

I had a good day today....not as HUGE as yesterday....but that was a very RARE day. I increased my gain for 2024 today nicely and at the same time I BEAT the SP500 by 1.04%.

I had only two stocks out of seven down....HD, and poor disrespected AAPL.

 

This was the day today....as we made a nice come-back from the low open this morning.

Stock market news today: Stocks close mixed as tech pares losses

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...ose-mixed-as-tech-pares-losses-143406680.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks were split on Tuesday as an early week, tech-fueled rally wavered after a Samsung profit warning took the shine off the sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped 0.4%, or about 150 points. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell by nearly 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) crawled above the flatline, in a reversal of earlier losses.

Samsung's update weighed on hopes for a rebound in the PC and mobile sector, a key market for its memory chips. The Korean company said it expects a 35% drop in fourth-quarter operating income, far short of estimates, as demand continues to lag.

Big Tech helped carry stocks higher on Monday, as the Dow shook off a plunge in Boeing (BA) shares after a malfunction on a 737 Max 9 jet. Shares in the carrier fell slightly Tuesday even as Alaska (ALK) and United Airlines (UAL) said they had found loose parts in an inspection check.

The key focus for investors remains the December consumer inflation reading due Thursday and what it could mean for the chances of easing interest rates. But two Federal Reserve officials on Monday poured cold water on Wall Street's already fading expectations that a cut could come in the next few months.

The idea that inflation is cooling underpins investors' belief that the US economy will skirt recession. That conviction faces a crucial test on Friday, when big banks kick off the fourth-quarter earnings season.

Meanwhile, oil prices (CL=F) (BZ=F) rose just under 2%, recouping some of Monday's near 4% fall as investors weighed the impact of tensions in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia's decision to cut crude prices."

MY COMMENT

For some of us today was a nice follow-through day to yesterday. It was a very stock specific day depending on what you happen to own. I thought it was actually a good indicator of the strength and staying power of the current BULL MARKET.

 

NVIDIA is on a two day run up. Hopefully this is the start to a good gain to and above $600. It has been a while for the stock to finally make a good push above $500. I do believe there is SIGNIFICANT JUSTIFICATION for the stock to go much higher from here.