The Long Term Investor

Good job TireSmoke.....after all what good is all that money if you never use any of it for family needs.

I am glad that Lori is here.....we need the view of more new investors and more people that are outside the USA.

No....I am not planing to go anywhere.....after all.....I AM a long term investor.

 

Markets are making a nice move away from the morning weakness. the NASDAQ is now positive and the SP500 is not too far behind. it takes an hour or two to shake off the Monday Holiday weakness. I see absolutely nothing in the news that gives me the slightest concern. AND.....no......I am not obsessed with when the rate cuts will happen.

 

The open today.

Stock market today: US stocks open lower to start four-day trading week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...to-start-four-day-trading-week-114132414.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks retreated on Tuesday, with investors still focused on the path of interest rates after a lackluster start to earnings season that kicked off with big bank results.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.4%, while S&P 500 (^GSPC) shed 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) opened lower but rose to hug the flat line as shares of semiconductors Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) increased.

Goldman Sachs (GS) shares were trading higher on Tuesday after the bank reported a fourth quarter earnings jump of 51% year-over-year. Goldman Sachs said its full-year net income of $8.52 billion for 2023 was down 24% as dealmaking slowed across the industry.

Morgan Stanley (MS) shares dipped more than 3% after posting a quarterly profit impacted by a one time charge of $535 million. The banks fourth quarter revenue beat Wall Street expectations.

As to earnings outside these big banks....as stated above with 8% reporting so far earnings are coming in nicely. IGNORE......the opinion BS.

Investors are counting down to Wednesday's retail sales report, as they track each release that could influence the Federal Reserve's data-driven policy thinking. Last week's surprise cooling in US wholesale inflation nudged up hopes for an interest-rate cut in March.

Fed Governor Chris Waller said on Tuesday he believes the Fed will be able to lower interest rates this year so long as inflation doesn’t rebound or stay elevated. However he cautioned the timing and rate cuts will depend on incoming data.

"I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past," said Waller in a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. His comments come after Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and a top IMF official recently warned it's too early to declare victory on inflation.

In corporates, Tesla (TSLA) shares recovered from earlier losses on Tuesday after its CEO Elon Musk said that unless he has roughly 25% voting control at the EV maker, he’d prefer to build artificial intelligence and robotics products elsewhere."

MY COMMENT

NO.....I dont care about the big bank earnings. these "banks" are not "banks" as most people think of banks. They are trading and speculation operations and investment operations. I dont invest in ANY banks or financial companies.....so I dont care about them.

 

I have not looked yet but I know I have three stocks UP right now. With the BIG GAIN in NVDA....I know that I am probably in the green for the day so far. I will sit and wait as usual for the rest of the market to shake off the three day weekend cobwebs.

 

I just looked for the first time today. I have a good moderate gain going so far today....thanks to....MVDA, HD, and MSFT.

 

The ULTRA-SHORT-TERM reason for the markets today.....the Ten Year Yield being up today. It is currently at 4.068%. irrelevant to actual long term investors.

 

I purchased AMAZON shares in my one kids accounts today. She now owns all seven of the stocks that are in my Portfolio Model. She had the other six but was lacking AMAZON. I sold some of her Fidelity Contra Fund to fund the purchase.

Previously.....ALL....of her account was in the SP500 Index and Fidelity Contra Fund. Once she got up to close to $300,000....I started moving her into the same seven stocks that are in all the other accounts that I manage for family. Even though I put her into the other six stocks only about 3-6 months ago......she has a really good gain in the stock position.

Her GAIN in the individual stock side of the portfolio.....which was put in place between July of 2023 and December of 2023.......+10%.

Her spouses portfolio which is now at about $78,000 will get the same individual stocks when it gets over $100,000. He is in the same position as all new investors......trying to get to his first $100,000.

That is just how it is when you start out....that first hundred thousand seems like an impossible goal. BUT....stick with it and you will get there. We all went through the same process. That is just how investing works.

 

A nice medium GAIN for me today. I also beat the SP500 by 1.16% today. Thank you.....HD, MSFT, and NVDA. My YTD gain definitely got better today.

It is ALL about the portfolio as a whole.

 

The GOOD.

Retail sales rise 0.6% in December, topping expectations for holiday shopping

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/retail-sales-december-2023.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Retail sales increased 0.6% in December, buoyed by a pickup in clothing and accessory stores as well as online nonstore businesses. Economists expected a rise of 0.4%.
• Sales ex-autos climbed 0.4%, better than the 0.2% estimate, and the “control group” increased 0.8%.
• On a year-over-year basis, retail sales ended 2023 up 5.6%. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so sales show that consumers are more than keeping up with inflation.

Retail sales rise 0.6% in December, topping expectations for holiday shopping

Holiday shopping turned out even better than expected in December as shoppers picked up the pace to close out a strong 2023, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Retail sales increased 0.6% for the month, buoyed by a pickup in clothing and accessory stores as well as online nonstore businesses. The results were better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate.

Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4%, which also topped the 0.2% estimate.

The report comes amid speculation about how much strength the U.S. economy possessed heading into the new year, when growth is expected to slow. However, a resilient consumer could signal more momentum and possibly give the Federal Reserve some caution about how to proceed on interest rates.

Stock market futures held negative following the release.

“The Fed was already hammering away on its ‘no rush to cut rates’ message, and today’s stronger-than-expected retail sales won’t give them any reason to change their tune,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing for E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.

On a year-over-year basis, retail sales ended 2023 up 5.6%. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so sales show that consumers are more than keeping up with an annual inflation rate of 3.4% as measured by the consumer price index. The CPI increased 0.3% in December, also lower than the retail sales increase.

Another measure of retail sales strength that excludes sales from auto dealers, building materials stores, gas stations, office suppliers, mobile homes and tobacco stores rose 0.8% for the month. The Commerce Department uses this so-called control group when computing gross domestic product.

The report showed broad-based strength in sales for the month, though there were a few areas of weakness. Both clothing and accessory stores and online retailers saw 1.5% increases on the month.

“Consumers shunned brick and mortar stores in favor of online shopping,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The behavioral change that happened during the pandemic will likely persist and successful retailers will adjust to this new model.”

Health and personal-care store receipts declined 1.4% and gas stations saw a 1.3% drop as fuel prices eased. Furniture and home furnishing stores sales also fell 1%.

On a yearly basis, food services and drinking places saw the biggest gains, rising 11.1% though sales were flat in December. Both health and personal care and electronics and appliances saw 10.7% increases. Gas stations dropped 6.6%.

In other economic news Wednesday, import prices were unchanged in December, despite the Wall Street estimate for a 0.5% decline and following a 0.5% drop the previous month. Export prices, however, slid 0.9%, the same as in November.

The reports come with markets anxious over the direction of Fed policy. Current market pricing anticipates the central bank enacting six quarter-percentage point rate cuts in 2024, twice what Fed officials indicated in December. Stronger-than-expected economic growth and inflation could force the Fed into keeping policy more restrictive."

MY COMMENT

First......the economy is strong and there is NO recession.

Second.....every expert prediction above.....there are at least three......was wrong. They are always wrong.

Retail sales.....WRONG. Christmas strength......WRONG. Import prices.....WRONG. As usual they defy all laws of probability.

 

The BAD.

0-year Treasury yield surges to five-week high above 4.11% after strong Dec. retail sales

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/tre...-investors-monitor-data-and-fed-comments.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.12% as investors focused on stronger-0than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at 4.108% after briefly getting to 4.117%, the highest since Dec. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 11 basis points to trade at 4.335%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%."

MY COMMENT

SO.....we have as usual ALL the experts telling us every day how rates are critical for the big cap monster stocks. The same experts that are uniformly WRONG on everything.

The truth......there is absolutely ZERO reason for high rates to impact the big cap tech companies. They are the absolutely least rate sensitive companies in the world. They have massive cash reserves and no need in the slightest to have to borrow. They are able to completely manage borrowing need,

As usual the market will shake this off. In addition these rates will not last long...they will drop back as usual. This is moslty short term trader action...nothing more.

 

The usual open today as the media and the short term traders and big banks pull the usual strings......the rate cut drama.......and....the Ten Year Yield.

AND....as usual the little retail investors sit and do nothing. In the long run, guess who is always right?

 

As we have seen for a long time now.....there is no significant news impacting the markets.

The one thing that is important.....EARNINGS, happening right now.....not a peep. No mention at all. The world is INSANE.

BUT.....whatever....if people are that dumb, fine with me. I will just plug away in my little long term bubble. Just....SHOW ME THE MONEY.

 

NOTHING....going on for me today. I am in the red right now....DUH. I have a single stock Up at this moment....COST. I have a couple of others that are in the red but very slightly....MSFT and HD.

We are below freezing here in Austin right now. About the same in the markets today. No direction going on......so.....dull and boring. BUT......hey.....you cant be up every day.

 

Well.....a moderate loss for me today. I had a single stock up today.....COST. BUT...I did manage to beat the SP500 by 0.13% today.

Good enough considering the earlier losses in the big averages and the nice gain that I had yesterday. Two days in the can.....and...two to go.

 

The story of the markets today.

10-year Treasury yield hits 5-week high after strong retail sales data

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/tre...-investors-monitor-data-and-fed-comments.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.1%.
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last up 5 basis points at 4.113%, after trading as high as 4.12%, the highest level since Dec. 13.

Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.1% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last up nearly 4 basis points at 4.102%, after trading as high as 4.12%, the highest level since Dec. 13. The 2-year Treasuryield rose around 12 basis points to trade at 4.352%.

The 20-year Treasury inched up 2 basis points to 4.442%. This came after a weak auction of $13 billion 20-year bonds at a high yield of 4.423%. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, on the 20-year Treasury was 2.53.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%."

MY COMMENT

Yes not shocking....yields on medium to long Treasuries go up and down over the short term.

BUT.....obviously.....yields on bonds and Treasuries will be going down in 2024. The action is often driven by the short term day traders playing their little market manipulation games. News stories like the retail data today are often used to push the bond markets by traders.

Just part of the daily market variation......and definately not relevant to.....long term investors.