The Long Term Investor

So much for all the commentary early in the month about the markets going to have a bad year. NO....you can not extrapolate a bad week and a half into a bad year.....especially a little time span caused by profit taking in a new year. Especially......after the strength of the BULL market that we saw last year and all the positive economic data lately and FED cuts coming this year.

A BIG OPEN today. In fact I think the open today does NOT reflect the actual market strength that is out there right now.

We now enter the final 1.5 weeks of January. So far.....a very good month.

 

YES it did.

Data Versus Expectations: Rounding Up a Quartet of Releases
The wall of worry had plenty of bricks as 2023 ended.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...xpectations-rounding-up-a-quartet-of-releases

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The new year may be off and running, but we are still getting a wealth of economic data from 2023. In addition to being a reminder that all such data are backward-looking, the latest snippets give us a handy look at how stocks’ economic fundamentals closed out the year and where sentiment is for early 2024. So let us take that look with four reports out Wednesday.

Retail Sales Went Out on a High Note

One of the more amusing tropes in financial commentary is the tendency for people writing on consumer spending to talk about “the consumer” or “the shopper,” as if there is only one. We saw a lot of this Wednesday, with headlines claiming some singular American shopper was victorious over inflation and doubters last year—making US retail sales’ 0.6% m/m rise in December an exclamation point on a strong 2023. That brought the year-over-year tally to 5.6%, comfortably ahead of the inflation rate and hinting at a decent rise in inflation-adjusted shopping.[ii] We will get more color on that later this month, when the far-broader and inflation-adjusted Personal Consumption Expenditures report hits the wires, but retail sales’ beating expectations is an encouraging start.

So is the general reaction, which looks pretty early-bull-market to us. There are some green shoots of optimism, but it isn’t universal. On the optimistic side, pundits heralded retail sales’ resilience in the face of restarted student loan payments, credited solid wage growth for restoring some purchasing power lost in 2022, and argued these tailwinds should continue. But there were still some gripes about falling savings, showing some lingering skepticism about households’ overall financial health and spending power.

This tells us there probably isn’t a ton of upside surprise in US consumer spending from here. The positive drivers are getting pretty well known, and investors seem to have climbed above some earlier bricks in the wall of worry. But savings fears’ stubbornness shows us there is likely still some—expectations are still a bit too dim overall. A gap between expectations and reality likely remains—just a smaller gap than there was a year ago. We think this is fine for stocks, but it is important to acknowledge when good news is getting priced.

People Are Still Worried About Manufacturing

Manufacturing generates a good deal more skepticism, judging from the discussion of December’s US industrial production report. The headline results were quite ho-hum. Yes, industrial production’s 0.1% m/m rise beat expectations for a flat month but manufacturing output, which rounded up to 0.1%, missed.[iii] Adding to the gloom, manufacturing’s slight uptick stemmed mostly from the United Auto Workers’ strike’s resolution. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output fell three straight months to close the year.

Yet here, too, the trends are well-known and probably priced in. Headlines have groused about manufacturing for months now, and its full-year decline comes as no surprise. But through Q3 at least, its weakness wasn’t enough to pull GDP lower, which speaks to manufacturing’s small slice of economic output versus services.

Looking ahead, expectations are muted. Several analysts interpreted the recent results as a sign business investment is dropping, and they project more weakness as higher rates continue biting. Perhaps, but we think they miss something: Businesses spent the past two years making cuts in anticipation of a recession that never came. They are now pretty lean, and with broader demand still looking strong, they should have the firepower and incentive to eventually start turning up the dial gradually. That may not translate to a big US manufacturing resurgence, but it should be an unheralded source of economic growth this year.

Home Builders Are Perking Up

Residential real estate is another potential tailwind, albeit a small one. It detracted from GDP for several quarters before a small turnaround in Q3, and it seems to be gathering pace. The latest indication: The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which rose to 44.0 from December’s 37, its second-straight monthly increase.[iv] All three of its components—present-day sales of single-family homes, expectations for the next six months and prospective buyer traffic—rose.

Now, this is just a survey. It isn’t measuring actual sales, inventory or construction. However, it is a good indication that as mortgage rates ease, the housing market is starting to defrost. More buyers are joining the fray, and more homeowners are probably starting to find it worthwhile to sell. Yet supply is likely still on the tight side, as many homeowners who locked in low rates have strong financial incentives to stay put. That should be plenty of incentive for builders to get cracking on new construction. That augurs well for real estate’s GDP contribution, which primarily comes from new home investment. Again, we wouldn’t overstate the impact, given real estate’s tiny share of GDP, but a modest headwind flipping to a modest tailwind, should that come to pass, would still be welcome.

Putting the UK’s Inflation Uptick in Context

No economic indicator moves in a straight line, so it was only a matter of time before the UK’s inflation rate hit a speedbump after months of steady slowing. That speedbump materialized in December, when the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) sped slightly from 3.9% y/y to 4.0%.[v] (The Office for National Statistics’ preferred measure, which includes owner-occupiers’ housing costs, held steady at 4.2% y/y.[vi])

The rise was down to one simple thing: Tobacco prices rose due to a recent tax increase, which took effect at November’s end. Otherwise, most price trends continued, with energy still in deflation and food prices continuing to slow. Consumer goods and services were more mixed, but the ups and downs mostly canceled each other out: Excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, the inflation rate held steady at 5.1%.[vii]

So we find it a bit funny that—as usual—headlines zeroed in on what the report means for the Bank of England’s (BoE’s) decision making. There was ample chatter that the uptick takes a rate cut off the table for the time being, as if higher rates can do anything about a tobacco tax. That is about as silly as thinking rate hikes were the solution to inflation fueled (sorry) by high oil and gas prices early in 2022—rate hikes can’t drill oil wells any more than they can reverse a tax hike. Who knows what central bankers will do, but the logic here seems lacking.

But from a sentiment standpoint, we guess the frenzy is a good sign. It shows that, as in the US and eurozone, people are hung up on the prospect of rate cuts, as if economies and markets depend on them. They don’t, as we showed more fully last week. But if people think they do, then it means expectations are still pretty weak, leaving plenty of room for economies’ resilience to higher rates to be a positive surprise."

MY COMMENT

With the investing ELITES and traders and short time market timers.....the wall of worry is intact and alive and well. For us retail investors that are long term and for the BULL MARKET....that is a very good sign.

We will.....no doubt....soon see them dusting off the typical articles about the market having too much exuberance and being too frothy. "They".......can just never go with the flow.....ride the wave....and have fun making money. Wet blanket syndrome.

 

While we are in the GLORY DAYS.....it is good to look back and internalize the lessons to be learned. It is especially important to review our actions during the BEAR MARKET......particularly our actions that were not so good in hindsight.

Lessons From the Bear Market

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/01/19/lessons-from-the-bear-market/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 hit an all-time high today. It hasn’t done that since the first trading day of 2022. That’s 512 trading days and 747 calendar days. Just over two years.


By historical standards, that wasn’t so bad. It didn’t feel great, but a two-year bear market is as normal as a blizzard in the northeast. They’ve happened before. They’ll happen again.


Now that the bear market is officially over*, I wanted to reflect on some of the lessons we learned to prepare us for the next time one appears.

Stocks don’t fall for no reason

It’s easy to look back and say that you should have loaded up with call options or 3X bull ETFs or whatever, but bear markets are scary! It’s never obvious while you’re in them that it’s a massive buying opportunity. Morgan Housel said “All past declines look like an opportunity, all future declines look like a risk.

We did a podcast in December of 2022 at the Nasdaq MarketSite in Times Square with our friends from the On The Tape podcast. At the time, things were…not great. Inflation was skyrocketing and the fed was chasing after it to slow down consumer prices.

The stock market was cratering. And the ones getting hit the hardest are the ones everyone owned. Amazon was 55% off its high. No really, 55%. Meta was worth just one-third of what it was in the previous year. Fear was everywhere.

I asked the audience, how many of you expect a recession in 2023? Every hand in the room went up. Then I asked, how many of you think the stock market bottomed in October? Crickets.

It’s easy to say “Be greedy when others are fearful.” It’s hard to actually do it.

Businesses are good at creating value for their shareholders

On this week’s TCAF with Adam Parker, we talked about how incredibly well-run companies are today. To be specific, I’m talking about the biggest businesses that we as investors are lucky enough to invest in basically for free.

The top 20 companies have compounded their earnings at ~13% a year for the last five years.


Stocks don’t go up every year. Earnings don’t go up every year. But capitalism is undefeated. It’s important to not to lose sight of that when we’re drowning in negativity.

Know your risk tolerance

It’s easy to overestimate your ability to deal with downside risk when stocks are going higher. You only discover who you really are as an investor in bear markets.

Ben and I were getting dozens of emails about triple-leveraged ETFs in 2021: “I know it’s risky but I have a long time horizon.”

I don’t think we saw a single one of those messages hit our inbox (personal emails, personal responses) in 2022.

The takeaway from all-time highs is not to only invest in stocks. The lesson is to own only as much as you can stick with when the going gets tough. The best investors balance their ability to deal with pain with their ability to sleep at night.

Automate your investing

Investing has never been easier.

I, like many of you, just kept buying over the last two years. It’s not because I’m a genius, and it’s definitely not because I was bullish with every purchase. I bought in my 401(k) every other week and in my brokerage account every month because it happens automatically. Out of sight out of mind.

If I had to physically log on and execute these trades, I’m sure that I wouldn’t be as consistent as I have been. You mustn’t let your emotions determine when you buy. Like Nick first said back in 2017, Just Keep Buying.

Bear markets are no fun, but they’re part of investing. I’m gonna enjoy this bull market for now. No telling how long it’s going to last.

MY COMMENT

Like any sports team, like any business, like any professional in any filed.....it is important to review your performance and behavior in the recent past. Especially in times of stress and turmoil. While celebrating the GREAT gains of the past many months....take some time to review how you reacted to the 2022 BEAR MARKET......and....internalize the lessons. For many it was probably their first NASTY BEAR MARKET. How did you do? What could you have done better? What lessons about human behavior did you learn?

 

Here is the open today.
Stock market today: US stocks climb as techs power higher again


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...mb-as-techs-power-higher-again-143109482.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks inched higher on Monday to put the S&P 500 on track for another record high, as investors became more upbeat about the health of the economy and looked to coming earnings for signs of an AI boom for techs.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.3% after the index notched its first record close since January 2022 on Friday. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added roughly 0.2%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) jumped 0.5%.

An AI-fueled surge in tech shares has helped pull stocks out of their early-2024 doldrums, bringing the major indexes into positive territory for January. Given that, quarterly results from the likes of Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) later this week will be closely watched, as how tech earnings perform could well indicate where the market heads in the short term.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve officials whose comments have buffeted stocks will stay quiet ahead of policymakers' next meeting on Jan. 30. But readings on GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge later in the week could shed light on the debate that has been driving markets: when the Fed will pivot to cutting interest rates.

In individual stocks, Boeing (BA) came under more pressure after the FAA urged airlines to carry out checks on another class of 737 jet that uses the same door plugs as on the MAX 9 that suffered a midair blowout.

Meanwhile, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) shares sank about 15% on Monday. The agricultural trading giant has placed its CFO on leave and cut its earnings outlook as it faces a probe into its accounts."

MY COMMENT

If you look way out there......in the ocean......far out by the horizan......I am that little guy that you can hardly see.....RIDING THE BIG WAVE.

 

I see that most of the big cap tech has now gone negative. Lets see if this little dip in the big cap tech companies has any legs or if it is a short term.....early in the day..... TRADING event.

 

This little story and video is a perfect lesson.....if....people pay attention and give it some thought.

2012 Taco Bell receipt reminds the internet how cheap things were before inflation
A viral TikTok video showed how hard inflation hit the popular fast food brand

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/2012-taco-bell-receipt-reminds-internet-cheap-things-inflation

"The video ignited new discussion about price hikes and inflation in the past decade. The Biden administration has seen the highest inflation rates in recent years, hitting a peak at 9.1% in 2022. It has since cooled off to 3.4% in December.

Food prices alone have risen 33.7% since the start of 2021. Various polls have consistently found Americans ranking the economy unfavorably."

MY COMMENT

Forget politics. BUT....give some thought to what government policies occurred since 2021 and how those policies impacted the economy. If you have the ability...take some time to look back at various times that we had a GREAT ECONOMY......for example the REGAN BOOM from the mid 1980's till 2000..... and times when we had a BAD ECONOMY.

 

Time to sit and wait for the market to settle in for the day.

 

HERE....are the predictions for 2024 from the WALL STREET GIANTS, the big banks, and the professionals.

Stocks closed 2023 near record highs. Here's what Wall Street thinks is coming in 2024.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...treet-thinks-is-coming-in-2024-124134109.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks finished 2023 near all-time highs with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gaining nearly 24% on the year.

The three major averages ripped higher in the final two months of 2023 after a pivot from the Federal Reserve has many investors increasingly betting that the central bank's next interest rate adjustment will bring rates lower.

But despite the market's newfound optimism to end the year, Wall Street doesn't see much upside for stocks in 2024.

Given the rally, many strategists' S&P 500 calls for 2024 already reflect a limited increase for stocks next year. The median target among the 20 Wall Street strategists tracked by Bloomberg shows the benchmark index finishing 2024 at 4,850, less than 2% higher than where the benchmark closed 2023.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs already boosted their 2024 target to reflect the recent run-up in stocks and the shift to a more dovish Fed. Goldman boosted its S&P 500 projection from 4,700 to 5,100 on Dec. 18.

And the range for next year's targets is wide. Oppenheimer and Fundstrat are the most bullish, with year-end targets of 5,200 for the S&P 500, reflecting about 9% upside from the 2023 close. Meanwhile, the lowest call on the Street for 2024 is JPMorgan's prediction that the S&P will sink to 4,200, which would mark a 12% decline for the benchmark index in 2024.


Will recession hit and bring down stocks ?

Much of the divide between bulls and bears headed into 2024 rests on where different firms see the economy headed next year.

Those that either see the economy not entering a recession at all, or believe that outcome has been talked about so much it won't entail much impact for stocks, predict the S&P 500 hits at least 5,000 in 2024. That camp includes firms like Oppenheimer, Fundstrat, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America.

Brian Belski at BMO calls any pending recession the "Chicken Little recession," a reference to the fictional character who insists the sky is fallingand causes mass hysteria over it. Belski thinks if there is a downturn next year it will be a "recession in name only."

"We will continue to take our cue from labor market trends, and unless they take a sharp turn for the worse, we are simply not concerned about the recession debate at this point," Belski wrote in his 2024 outlook.

The team at Deutsche Bank is still in the recession camp, though. The analysts see economic growth slowing and "a mild recession" in the first half of the year. But to the firm's chief US equity strategist Binky Chadha, the risks of recession would only lead to a "modest short-lived sell-off."

Others still see a recession weighing on stocks in 2024. Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel wrote that stocks will be "down first into recession, then higher as inflation hits the [Fed's 2%]target." Emanuel believes the recession will come in the first half of the year before a rally leads the S&P 500 to his 4,750 target.

JPMorgan's equity strategists are even more cautious about what a downturn could spell for stocks as they project the benchmark average closing 2024at 4,200.

"Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year with softening consumer trends at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed," JPMorgan equity strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in the team's 2024 outlook on Nov. 29.

Lakos-Bujas's point about Fed easing is a key sticking point in the bulls-versus-bears argument. At a high level, there are two basic reasons the Fed would cut interest rates, which it currently forecasts it will do three times in 2024. The Fed would lower rates if the economy meaningfully slowed to ease financial conditions and help keep it afloat.

Or the Fed would cut rates because inflation falls toward the central bank's 2% target more quickly than anticipated. This is the scenario Goldman Sachs cited when boosting its outlook for stocks in mid-December.

"Resilient growth and falling rates should benefit stocks with weaker balance sheets, particularly those that are sensitive to economic growth," Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin wrote in a strategy note.

In the past, whether or not a recession lies ahead has played a key role in whether stocks rally or fall following the first interest rate cut. A graph from Goldman Sachs shows that stocks typically fall if a recession hits in the 12 months following the first Fed rate cut.


In three of the last Fed's last eight interest rate cutting cycles a recession occurred within 12 months of the first cut. The chart above shows that when a recession hits after a rate cut (line in gray) stocks perform worse than if the economy remains on solid ground following the first cut. (Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
Will it be all about the Magnificent Seven again?

A well-documented aspect of the 2023 stock market rally was how seven large technology stocks — Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) — drove most of the market's gains. But in the final two months of the year, the rally broadened out, and many strategists see that market breadth continuing in 2024.

"We forecast an all-time high for the S&P 500 in 2024, with a year-end target of 5000. But unlike this year during which the Magnificent 7 did 70% of the work, we expect broader leadership," Bank of America head of US equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian wrote in a December note to clients.

Fundstrat founder Tom Lee places Technology and FAANG stocks among his top three sectors for 2024. But after a massive run-up in 2023, Lee doesn't see tech leading the way again next year.

"Do I think there's enough juice in FAANG from earnings plus multiple expansion to outperform small caps? I don't think so," Lee said during his 2024 outlook Zoom call on Dec. 7. "I think small caps could rise 50% next year easily. And Financials could rise 30% ... When it comes to positioning no one owns Financials and no one's really long small caps. There's a lot of upside."

Kostin at Goldman Sachs also gave a shout-out to small caps in his recent 2024 outlook.

"An environment of falling interest rates and improving economic growth expectations historically has been supportive for small-caps, which have recently traded at depressed valuations," Kostin wrote.

"This likely opens the door for increased participation with traditional growth areas (especially within Technology) ...Given the outperformance of growth, we believe investors should be much more prudent and focus on themes (not just liquidity or momentum), stable growth, and even dividends within Growth sectors."

"We believe there is a very good chance that the 'Magnificent 7' will not be as unified in terms of performance trends in 2024," Belski wrote in his 2024 outlook. "For instance, company-specific fundamentals are very different, with recent price performance trends in the 4Q portending to increasingly varied performance in 2024."

"This likely opens the door for increased participation with traditional growth areas (especially within Technology) ... Given the outperformance of growth, we believe investors should be much more prudent and focus on themes (not just liquidity or momentum), stable growth, and even dividends within Growth sectors."

MY COMMENT

Well my......cheap seats, seat of the pants.....prediction for the SP500 at year end 2024.......5600. Lets see how all the experts do by year end.

We gained 24% in the SP500 at year end for 2023. Did any of them come anywhere close to predicting this huge gain.....I severely doubt it.

As to the magnificent seven.....yes I do agree there may be some separation for various companies in that group....but in general.....they will ALL be MAGNIFICENT.....once again in 2024. There is a reason these are the greatest companies wil the largest market cap in the world.

 

A very minimal loss for me today. I had five of seven stocks down today. The two that were UP....NVDA and AAPL. I lost out to the SP500 today by 0.30%.

In the end my entire portfolio will probably be UP by a small amount due to the funds in my SP500 Index Fund and Fidelity Contra Fund. Basically a flat, meaningless, day for me today. But....better than a more significant loss

 

I dont really care about the DOW.....but a new milestone is cause for celebration.

Dow rises more than 100 points to close above 38,000 for the first time ever: Live updates

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

IGNORING.....the markets today. The open is meaningless on a day like this.

Aging rockers: What Mick Jagger and AARP can teach us about stocks

https://nypost.com/2024/01/21/business/what-mick-jagger-and-aarp-can-teach-us-about-stocks/

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The geezers are coming! The geezers are coming!

Demographic doomsayers warn slowing birth rates and graying populations will wreak economic havoc and torpedo stocks.

Yet the dire scenarios of zombie-like boomer hoards leeching off their working progeny have it backwards: Aging populations are always, everywhere signs of progress — not threats to it.

Yes – America, like most developed nations, is aging. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates 9.8% of US residents were 65 or older in 1970. At the start of 2023, it was 17.3%.

In 2000, there were 20.9 folks aged 65 and older for every 100 “working age” counterparts (What is called the OADR or Old Age Dependency Ratio). Now there are 30.4, and the OECD projects it will top 40 by 205

The trend will continue to be a major theme this century, with the Census Bureau projecting America’s agedness will peak about 2080. What to do? Invest in adult diapers?

No. Celebrate.

4
Every major economy ages as it prospers.

Living standards increase and lifespans follow. Birth rates fall alongside infant mortality. American males born in 1900 on average lived to 46 and females to 48. Now, it’s 73 for males, 79 for females.

Tremendous advances in healthcare have given us extra fruitful and productive years—in the US, Europe, everywhere.

Mick Jagger turned 80 before the Stones play MetLife Stadium this May. AARP sponsors that tour – not a joke! But boomers aplenty will splurge big-time for tickets.

Want “good” demographics instead? Careful what you ask for. Nations with low agedness (hence low OADRs) near-consistently suffer poverty, short lifespans, high infant mortality, wretched economies, markets, ecologies, and lifestyles.

Still, demographics aren’t destiny. Innovation is. History shows agedness doesn’t impede growth or stocks. In 1982, America’s OADR was 20. We’ve since thrived, not dived. GDP tripled. The S&P 500 returned 11.8% annualized since then.

Yes, periodic recessions and bear markets struck—like always, everywhere. But growth continued and stocks climbed.

4
Doomers envision oldsters as penny-pinching parasites. Growth killers! Wrong. In 1984, Americans 75 and older spent just half what those 25 to 34 did. By 2023, that leapt to nearly 80%. Again, innovation-derived prosperity rules. Longer lifespans and increased retirement ages mean oldsters earn—and spend—more. Yes, the 75-plus crowd only spends 59% of what 45 to 54 do (America’s highest spending bracket). But that’s well above 1984’s 39%.

We geezers invest, funding capitalism’s growthy magic. We give to descendants who spend. Many of us work into our 80s. (I’m 73—no retirement in sight.) Like legendary financier Bernard Baruch once famously said: “To me old age is always 15 years older than I am.”

Age isn’t the detriment it was when Baruch was born in 1870. There are now fewer physically demanding and risky agricultural and factory jobs, and more services and information-related work.

Accumulated experience and technology can make oldsters increasingly productive, not less so. (Yes, I know President Biden can’t string coherent sentences together consistently and dementia hits many — all part of the stats).

Demo-doomsters also erroneously extrapolate recent trends. Who really knows if developed world birthrates keep falling? Or how immigration shifts skilled workers around? Or what efficiencies new innovations bring?

Stocks? They price factors impacting firms’ profitability three to 30-ish months out. Not further. Demographic trends evolve glacially over decades, giving markets eons to adapt.

So let the demo-doomers keep talking. They are only bricking up the wall of worry driving this bull market higher."

MY COMMENT

This sort of "stuff" that we constantly see in the media about different generations is CRAZY. Especially seniors and all their money.....and houses.....and hoarding of assets from the young.

Even if they had all the money.....it is not siting in some big basement vault like Scrooge McDuck. That money is funding and working in the economy....whether it is in stocks or CD's or bonds or even bank accounts. It is funding and providing for our capitalistic market system. It is creating jobs and opportunity. It is driving the innovation and earnings that move the markets forward.

In reality.....outside the media....I dont see or hear much of this stuff in day to day life.

 

It is too early to say if this will happen....but....I would not fault the markets for taking a breather this week. We have a good number of the BIG CAP TECH GIANTS reporting earnings next week. At the same time we have the FED meeting next week.

In one week....next week....we will get earnings from:

GOOGLE
META
MICROSOFT
AMAZON
APPLE

The others.....TESLA reports this week (tomorrow) and NVIDIA reports on February 28.

 

We are in a distinctly MIXED market today.....I see that with my seven stocks and the broad markets as a whole. I believe this is the primary market influence today.

Treasury yields rise ahead of key data releases

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/23/treasury-yields-fractionally-higher-ahead-of-key-data-releases.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"U.S. Treasury yields nudged slightly higher on Tuesday, as market participants await the release of key economic data points later in the week.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was nearly 6 basis points higher at 4.149%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up more than 3 basis points at 4.413%.

Yields move inversely to prices.

Investors are trying to gauge when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key determinant of the trajectory for markets and the economy this year.

Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week: a preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department’s closely-watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday.

Despite the uncertain rate outlook, risk-on sentiment remained robust on Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average
and the S&P 500 both notched all-time highs.

“It’s an economy proving to be more resilient than many thought and it’s one that is supported by the prospect of central banks cutting rates, and that’s a great environment for bonds and it’s a great environment for risky assets,” PGIM Principal and Global Investment Strategist Guillermo Felices told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday."

MY COMMENT

The Ten Year Yield and the upcoming economic data is weighing on the markets today. In addition with the big averages having hit all time highs......we see many trading programs selling on the news.

 

Well with less than an hour to go we have a mixed market. Luckily for most people it is the DOW that is down and the SP500 and NASDAQ that are up. The DOW is so limited it is not really much of an indicator anymore compared to the other very broad Indexes.

I am teetering right on the line between green and red. When I looked a while ago five of my seven stocks were green and the other two.....COST and HD were red. But....the gains in the green stocks were minimal and the loss in HD was over $5 per share. thus....I was borderline.

It will be a surprise for me when I check at the close to see how I did for the day.

 

This is the reason for my HD loss today.

'Negative catalyst' ahead for Home Depot, Lowe's: Analyst

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/negative-catalyst-ahead-home-depot-171926242.html

Basically when you boil it all down the reason for the downgrade is the....."expectation".....that HD will be very conservative on their guidance for 2024. In other words....very short term stuff. As to the long term:

"...the other thing to keep in mind here when we're talking about Home Depot and Lowe's, these are very well run companies. They're very well positioned. And over any length of time, the home improvement sector in the United States is quite healthy. So this is very much our downgrade here, our cautious stance is very tactical in nature. We're basically saying, look, you're going to get better entry points in these stocks to play the long-term success."

What a bunch of BALONEY. But....if you are a short term trader......this stuff "might" be accurate....but....probably no more than random chance.

 

A small but nice gain for me today. I think I ended the day at a high. I still had losses in COST and HD. I got beat by the SP500 by 0.13%.

My gain today took shape as NVDA.....and a few other stocks.....did a little bump up in the last 30 minutes.

 

A nice BEAT today.

Netflix subscribers surge as revenue beats estimates

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-subscribers-surge-as-revenue-beats-estimates-210504557.html