A good strong open today.....thank you Netflix. BUT....there is still room for improvement by the close.....if the markets strengthen into the day. Seem like the strength is in reply to the past couple of very mild days. At this moment NVDA is back on fire again today. It is now over $600 per share and up by 3.4% at this moment.
I like this little article. What to Glean From the S&P 500’s New Record High Stocks don’t sound all-clear signals—and other timeless wisdom. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...hat-to-glean-from-the-sp-500s-new-record-high (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "And there it is! The S&P 500 price index closed at 4839.81 Friday, eclipsing the close on January 3, 2022—and officially completing the round trip from that year’s bear market. In our view, milestones like this are fine to note but largely meaningless. A new bull market’s first all-time high is usually one of dozens, if not hundreds, along the way to its ultimate peak. But this is still a fine time to impart some timeless lessons. First: There is never an all-clear signal. When stocks reached their low in October 2022, there was no way to know a new bull market was underway. There was no siren or signal to mark the official low in real time. All the fears dragging down sentiment that year were still in place. Inflation was still elevated, the war in Ukraine continued, the Fed was still hiking and supply chains weren’t back to normal. Recession fears ran rampant. Moreover, because the bear market was relatively short in duration and hadn’t yet seen that panicky burst of indiscriminate selling known as capitulation, many experts argued the bottom couldn’t be in yet. But it was in, making this the rare bear market that ended without capitulation, much like 1966’s (which was also similar in length and magnitude). Many are only now calling the rally since then a bull market, apparently feeling liberated to do so now that a new high has provided a very late, lagging confirmation. But stocks have actually been in a bull market for over 15 months, erasing the bear market’s declines for those with the patience, discipline and fortitude to remain invested and focused on their long-term goals the whole way. This is the second lesson. Of course, the ideal is to avoid down markets, or at least a good chunk of the downside. Sometimes that is possible, if you identify the bear market and its drivers early enough. Sometimes it isn’t. And in those unpleasant sometimes, capturing the rebound is crucial to reversing the declines—which means gritting your teeth and hanging on. It is a true test of will and nerves. But if there is no all clear, how do you know hanging on is the correct move? We think it is most helpful to take a cold, unemotional look at everything going on in markets. All the bad news and what people are saying about it. And then, ask this question: Is there much negative surprise power left here? Followed by: How likely is it that people who want to sell stocks because of this bad news haven’t done so yet? Taking this approach in October 2022 wouldn’t have yielded clear-cut conclusions, but it helped frame probabilities. At the time, all the negatives in headlines were the same ones that had taken turns stinging investors throughout the year, making it likely that stocks had already given them ample consideration and most people had already traded on them. This made it likely stock prices already reflected these fears to a very great degree—if not fully—making it unlikely that they had power to sink stocks to much deeper lows from there. A recovery looked likelier to begin at some point soon than another -20% drop. This framing didn’t hint at timing, but for long-term investors, we don’t think timing is really the point. Yes, in the short run, it can matter a great deal to your feelings about the market, especially for those who started investing near the peak. But what ultimately matters is getting the returns needed to reach your goals, whatever they may be, over your entire investment time horizon, which could be decades-long depending on your age and your money’s primary purpose. So if stocks look likelier to be up than down over the next year or two, then owning stocks is wise even if you can’t pinpoint when the rally will start. The destination is what matters. Which brings us to lesson the third: All-time high isn’t synonymous with peak. This is crucial to keep in mind now, as the investing world seems to be suffering a collective case of what we call breakevenitis. That is, now that stocks are back to the prior high, many question how much further they can go and whether it might be wise to take some money off the table now just in case of a fresh downturn. Yet most bull markets extend long past their first new high, setting many more records as they zig-zag higher. None of them are predictive—all are backward-looking, telling you only where stocks have been. Assessing whether any high is the bull market’s last requires looking past index price levels to investors’ expectations and how those square with what economic and political conditions look likely to mean for earnings over the next 3 – 30 months. Right now, this balance looks quite favorable for stocks. Investors seem quite skeptical, and fearful headlines have built a nice wall of worry. Meanwhile, most governments are gridlocked, keeping legislative risk low. This, plus the dawning realization that we avoided a US and global recession should help spur risk-taking and investment, fueling growth over the foreseeable future. The landscape isn’t perfect or devoid of risk, but it doesn’t need to be. Stocks thrive on better than expected, and this looks likely to keep powering returns for the foreseeable future." MY COMMENT This little article has some good lessons for long term investors. It is a nice look back at the.......now recognized....BULL MARKET. Most people had no clue that the markets were going up starting in about July of 2022. The article is also a good jumping off point for investors thinking about what it means to be a.....REAL....long term investor.
The early market today.......which continues to strengthen at this moment. Stock market today: US stocks pop as Netflix results shine https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...s-pop-as-netflix-results-shine-143128020.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 headed for another all-time closing high as upbeat tech earnings led by Netflix buoyed hopes the record-setting rally will continue. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.6%, building on the new closing high hit on Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) signaled a return to gains with a rise of about 0.4%, or nearly 150 points. Tech stocks outperformed, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popping about 0.9% after quarterly earnings from Netflix (NFLX) helped paint a picture of consumer health. The streaming giant's shares rallied nearly 10% in early market trading after posting a surge in subscribers that far outstripped expectations. Meanwhile, blowout updates from chip gear maker ASML (ASML) and software maker SAP (SAP) lifted optimism for a chip industry revival and an AI-fueled boom in techs. Magnificent Seven laggard Tesla (TSLA) is the highlight in the cavalcade of corporate reports on Wednesday, with deliveries in focus as the EV maker faces a tough market and tough rivals in China. Tech stalwart IBM (IBM) is also on the docket. While earnings are center stage, the debate over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates rumbles on. With data driving expectations, updates on US manufacturing and services activity came in strong with economic output at its highest levels in seven months — just ahead of Thursday's first reading of Q4 GDP and Friday's release of the Fed-favored PCE inflation figures." MY COMMENT A good strong day. But....the good sentiment is not spread across all stocks. it is a nice day....but....still a day that what an investor owns matters. A good start.....but.....it would be nice to see the gains broaden out as the day progresses.
I agree with this little article. I should....it basically is talking about my very concentrated portfolio. A sustained rally doesn’t have to mean a broad one: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-su...mean-a-broad-one-morning-brief-110058553.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "As we came into 2024, a lot of strategists were calling for a broadening of the stock market rally beyond the Magnificent Seven. Those calls sounded familiar, because we’ve been hearing them for at least the past year. But the broadening hasn’t really materialized. And now the major averages are hovering at record highs. Maybe it’s time to put to bed the notion that the rally “needs” to broaden to be sustained. Info tech and communications services are the two best-performing groups thus far this year. Utilities and energy and consumer discretionary are in the red, among other sectors. The Seven (or really, Magnificent Six, since Tesla has slumped) has powered forward. Nvidia is still the standout, with a 20% jump this year on top of its nearly 240% rally last year. That means that once again — but even more so — big-cap tech is responsible for the push to new records. The Magnificent Six have accounted for a whopping 89% of the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) year-to-date return through Monday’s close, according to Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre. Big Tech hasn’t reported earnings yet, so the stocks could take a hit when their numbers and forecasts come out. Both info tech and communications services are predicted to report year-over-year growth in both earnings and revenue, according to FactSet. It’s certainly possible that they won’t be able to meet the lofty expectations implied by the stocks’ run this year. But that was frequently the narrative around tech earnings last year as well. As the refrain went, how could they possibly continue to gain, given what was being priced in? And then Meta leaped 194%. Tesla doubled. Amazon soared 80%. Microsoft rallied 57%. Alphabet rose 58%. Apple gained 48%. And Nvidia, as previously mentioned, more than tripled. For some investors, surprise at these numbers amounted to an utter failure of imagination. None of this is to say the same thing will continue to happen. But it certainly makes one question the idea that it can’t continue to happen." MY COMMENT DUH.......is it any surprise that the leading big cap growth companies in the world.......are the leading companies in the markets? Seems pretty obvious to me. I am content to ride the greatest companies for the long term. I dont have to go looking for secondary or third tier companies....just for the hell of it. There is no need to be looking for......"new market movers"....when the old market movers are so dominant.
Congratulations to MSFT and to the shareholders. Microsoft crosses $3 trillion in market cap https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/24/microsoft-3-trillion-market-cap.html
Whoops....my MacBook battery is low and going to sleep soon. So I will go and plug it in and let the markets just do their thing for a while.
The chip gods have been good to us this year. AMD up 29% YTD and NVDA up 29.8% YTD. Very good start to 2024. The new (used) car came in yesterday and I took it for a little test drive after work. They had the original window sticker in the glove box which is neat to see what it was ordered with. I'm pretty sure they got every option available. Coming from a 12 year old chevy work truck this thing is nice step up. We are waiting on title which should be here any day now. In the meantime I had my good friend who owns a detail shop pick it up today for a professional cleaning inside and out. I was talking to him the other day and he said he was really slow so instead of waiting until spring, this will help him out now.
Yeah those chip stocks are on fire. Unfortunately the markets have now backed off. NVDA is down by about half in terms of the gain today. The BIG JUMP in the stock today probably triggered some profit taking and trading. The NASDAQ is still positive.....but at a significantly lower level than earlier.
I STILL have a good gain going today.....but I now have three stocks in the red.....APPLE, HOME DEPOT, and COSTCO. I do like this skittish market.....it is a good forward indicator for the health and staying power of the current BULL MARKET.
With the recent run up in the BIG CAP TECH stocks......even with good earnings......I am expecting they will probably drop back following the reports......ESPECIALLY......NVIDIA. Guidance will be critical along with the amount of....."AI talk"....in their guidance. If we get a week or two drop in the BIG SEVEN following earnings.....it might be a nice buying opportunity for people that would like to own those names for the long term.
A nice....medium....gain for me today. I had four of seven stocks UP including NVIDIA kicking ass once again as it marches to daily new highs. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.84%. We are all set up for a great end to the week......unless investors and especially the short term traders FREAK OUT over some irrelevant BS.
Here is a story that will somewhat impact the open tomorrow. Tesla stock drops on Q4 earnings miss, warns production growth rate will be 'notably lower' than 2023 Tesla's Q4 report comes as the EV maker's stock has slipped despite a broader market rebound. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesl...ill-be-notably-lower-than-2023-212357382.html
On the other hand these little story-lines will be positive for the open. Tech stocks lead as S&P 500 logs another record close https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-500-logs-another-record-close-210050325.html IBM revenue rises 4% amid AI demand https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-revenue-rises-4-amid-ai-demand-211054531.html Microsoft Closes at Record, Ends Just Shy of $3 Trillion Value https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-hits-3-trillion-value-153010501.html Alphabet Shares Flirt With Record High on AI Hype https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-shares-flirt-record-high-163301371.html MY COMMENT Notice a trend here? It is all....AI, AI, AI. Companies that want to boost market cap need to mention AI. Great earnings are not enough....it is all about saying the magic letters......AI. Companies that play it coy or hide the ball.....will be punished....even if they are being honest and rational with guidance.
I gained 1.06% today on the strength of NVDA. I sold my stake in NVDA for a 40% profit ($615.18 per share) and used some of the money to by AMZN. Keeping some money to rebuy NVDA if it encounters a decent drop since I suspect it will rebound. VLO is up .0086 and DE is up .0030. I'm up 5.42% YTD versus 2.14% YTD for the S&P 500.
YES....wrong once again....on the numbers and the recession. YES....there is no recession. GDP: US economy grows at 3.3% annual pace in fourth quarter, faster than expected https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-...h-quarter-faster-than-expected-133828802.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the fourth quarter, capping off a year many expected to end in recession with one final economic surprise. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of fourth quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3%during the period,fasterthan consensus forecasts.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 2% during the period. The reading came in lower than third quarter GDP, which was revised down to 4.9%. For the year, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% up from 1.9% in 2022. The GDP release highlights the resilience of the US consumer despite ongoing concerns of a slowdown. It's the latest in a string of economic data releases that show the US economy ended 2023 on solid ground as investors closely watch to see if Fed can achieve its vaunted "soft landing," where inflation returns to the 2% goal without a severe economic downturn. Economic output hit its highest levels in seven months in January, according to the latest S&P Flash PMI release. A recent reading on consumer spending came in higher than expected with December's retail sales number. And the labor market hasn't shown severe signs of cooling off, with the latest reading of weekly jobless claims hitting its lowest level since September 2022. "The economy faired noticeably better than expected in the final three months of last year, reinforcing our view that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as March is premature," Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. But Sweet did note that the release had some positives for investors hoping Fed rate cuts are coming sooner rather than later. The positive growth has combined with further inflation declines, setting the stage for a potential soft landing. The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures Index showed prices increased at a 2.0% rate compared to the prior quarter, in line with the Fed' 2% goal for inflation. "The Fed will have to ease unless they have very good reasons to think the economy is about to re-strengthen or inflation somehow will rebound," Pantheon Macroeconomics Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients. "We doubt those arguments can be made with confidence, so we expect the first easing in March or May."" MY COMMENT The obsession with rate cuts is simply short term delusion and obsession. As a long term investor I dont care when they happen this year. What I do care about is that the economy is humming along right where it should be......about 2.5% annual GDP. A nice sweet spot for investors. Amazingly.......NOT.....the experts, well, WRONG AGAIN on the expectations. Too funny.....if it was not so pathetic. And consider....these people making the predictions are being paid big bucks by the big banks and brokerages and Hedge Funds, etc, etc......to be financial "EXPERTS".
Other than the GDP news I see NOTHING going on that should impact the markets today. Operative word being...."should"......since the markets in the short term often freakout over....nothing. I start the day with a nice gain with five stocks up and two down. The red stocks at the moment are COST and AMZN. NVIDIA.....yes....up once again. There is a lot of pent up future earnings and product demand in that stock.
We already know this: Stocks rise as GDP growth beats, Tesla slides https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-gdp-growth-beats-tesla-slides-143054742.html MY COMMENT I notice that the constant negativity has now lessened.....for the moment. The people that push the negativity seem to be MUTE at the moment. The BULL MARKET is pushing their constant DARK COMMENTARY out of the news....no one cares. BUT.....dont worry.....they will be back in force as soon as they get some news opening to start back up.
You have to be in the market.....to get the market gains. What a simple concept. Yet....many investors are not able to stomach the day to day turmoil in order to sit in the markets for the long term. Those of us that did are seeing many new highs in our accounts lately. I certainly am. It is called....no guts no glory. The key is to not let your stock and fund picks outrun your risk tolerance. There are a HUGE number of extremely nice companies and Funds.....that are on the conservative to moderate side of the market. Any investor needs to use their emotional analysis to position their entire portfolio in investments that allow them to stay in the markets and not get driven out by fear or emotion. If this means a more conservative portfolio....there is nothing wrong with that. In fact......that is exactly what you are supposed to do.....invest for yourself and dont try to be something you are not.
Are all these new highs making you nervous? Thinking of taking some profits off the table? If that is what you are feeling and want to do....ok. For me however......no I will simply continue to ride the wave.....and see where it takes me. Six Things to Know About All-Time Highs https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/six-things-to-know-about-all-time-highs/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "“Can you take me higher? To a place where blind men see. Can you take me higher? To a place with golden streets.” Higher by Scott Stapp of Creed After a wait of more than two years, the S&P 500 finally closed at an all-time high last Friday. That’s right, the last time it hit a new all-time high was clear back on January 3, 2022, more than two years ago. This was quite a long wait for new highs, but note it went nearly eight years without a new high in the ‘70s and early ‘80s and then more than seven years to made a new high after the tech bubble implosion in the early ‘00s. Still, this recent streak was the longest since more than five years without a new high after the Great Financial Crisis. The second thing to know about new highs is they tend to happen in clusters that can last many years. Since 1957 (when the S&P 500 moved to 500 stocks) there have now been 1,186 all-time highs. But the majority of those new highs took place during three major clusters. 1958 – ’68 281 new highs 1980 – ’00 513 new highs 2013 – current 348 new highs In other words, only 46 new highs took place outside of these three clusters (96.4% of all highs can be found in these three clusters). How much longer this new cluster could continue is hard to say, but we’d say be open to potentially many more years of new highs before it is all said and done. Or, to quote the great musical talent Scott Stapp as seen above, we could be going higher. Third, new all-time highs happen a lot. In fact, 7.0% of all days since 1957 closed at an all-time high, that is a new high every 14 trading days. That is a lot of new highs! Here’s a chart showing all 1,186 new all-time highs (good luck counting them all). If you picked any random day a new high was made, the future returns aren’t too far away from average returns. A year later up 7.4% on average and up about 71% of the time isn’t spectacular, but it sure isn’t bearish either. We’ve heard from many that they are worried that stocks have gone too far too fast, but history would say this bull market probably has plenty of life left. As we will show in number five below, sometimes the wait is worth it (probably like the 10 year wait we’ve had to wait to see Creed live). Fourth, yes, eventually there will be a new all-time high that marks the end of this bull market. But if you spend all your time worrying that each new high will be the final peak, like in ’87, ’00, or ’07, then you likely will miss out on historic gains along the way. Remember, these represent only three all-time highs out of 1,186 and even adding the previous bear markets going back to 1957 only gets you to 10 out of 1,186. Here’s a chart I made that indeed showed the peak before the past 10 bear markets. Again, there will be a time this bull market peaks as well, we just don’t think it is now. Fifth, time is your friend when it comes to investing and one of the strongest reasons to be bullish this year is the fact stocks just went so long with out a new all-time high. I found 13 previous times the S&P 500 went at least a full year without a new all-time high and then made one. The good news is stocks were higher a year later 12 times and up nearly 12% on average and even more looking at median returns. In our recently released Outlook ’24: Seeing Eye To Eye we noted we expected stocks to gain between 11-13% and this study fits right in that area. Here’s a table with all the exact dates and returns. The bottom line is better-than-average returns going out one year is perfectly normal. The sixth and final thing to know about new highs is once we finally made one after a bear market, the trend higher usually remained your friend. After the 25% bear market of 2022 bottomed in October ’22, it officially took more than 15 months to make a new all-time high. The really good news for the bulls here is looking at the past 10 bear markets showed that a year later stocks were higher nine times when new highs were eventually made. Yes, 2007/08 was the one time this didn’t work, but we don’t see many signs of a pending major financial crisis is on the horizon and expect to see higher prices a year from now. To sum it up, are we six feet from the edge (like Scott Stapp sang on One Last Breath)? We don’t think so, as this bull is alive and well, but I just had to make one final Creed reference." MY COMMENT With what I am seeing and FEELING.....we have a long way to go with the current bull market. The greatest dangers.....some unknown black swan........and.....of course, government.
Poor TESLA. Down by 12.62% for the day today......and....down by more than 25% year to date. I dont see much help for them from consumers. It is obvious that the demand for EV vehicles is just NOT there yet. They represent about 3.5% of new vehicle sales per year. AND....the majority of consumers do not want an EV. People are willing to buy a Hybrid much more than a pure EV. There has been a HUGE amount of bad news for the EV space lately. I do not do banks, car companies, financial companies, insurance companies, drug companies and a few other categories. I hate all of these because they tend to be....boom or bust. In addition they are mostly old school companies.....not big cap growth companies....or.....consumer conglomerate companies (like PG). I have ZERO interest in TESLA as a car company. Now...in the future....if they turn more to being a big cap, TECH, growth company.......I might look at them. But....even in that situation....I am not a fan of the auto side of the company. I still see MUSK as the most visionary business leader in the world. I remain curious how he is going to integrate all of his companies at some time in the future. Will it be under TSLA or "X"....or...some other vehicle. I think that is his current plan.....but..there is no guarantee obviously.
