The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    AJP said:

    "What portion of my overall portfolio should MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN consist of? Right now it is about 8%. Should I increase or stay same? If increase, do DCA or at once now/later?
    I realize it is also part of any S&P fund or for that matter most other funds too."

    Sorry AJP........I will not give that sort of very specific information. I really dont know anything about you or your investing tolerance, income, assets, etc, etc, etc. Answering those sorts of questions is TOO MUCH like giving investment advice.

    You have to set the overall percentage of the four individual stocks and any funds.......or anything else you buy........ according to how much risk you want to have concentrated in those four companies versus the fund or funds that you buy. The way I look at it is........if you have a fund like the SP500.......that fund is going to provide diversification and some level of safety due to the fund containing the 500 greatest businesses in America.

    The fund is also going to contain a large percentage of MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL and AMZN. So if you have those four stocks and a SP500 Index fund you are going to double or triple up on those four names depending on how much of your investable money is in the four stocks individually. "If I was you".........but, I am NOT........I would want the majority of my money in the Index Fund and a definite minority in the four stocks. BUT......YOU have to decide what is right for you. There is no right or wrong answer. Give it some thought and come up with a REASONABLE plan.

    Dont get GREEDY. DONT get in a hurry. Invest according to percentages you can live with when the next correction or bear market comes. Let TIME and COMPOUNDING be your friend........and.......do the heavy lifting. You have to be in the markets and reinvesting dividends and capital gains to get that compounding.

    I am sure you know.......corrections and bear markets are......NORMAL. Nothing to be afraid of.........and.........nothing that you need to try to time. Just hold through them and you will be fine. The best example I can give you is the time period from about February 16, this year, to now. In that time period we went through the WORST market COLLAPSE.......perhaps in history. At least one of the worst BUSINESS collapses.......(self imposed).......in history. Investors that DID NOTHING and stayed invested through it all are just fine now and probably seeing new highs in their accounts.

    PLEASE.........the above is just general discussion.......NOT......investment advice to anyone.
     
  2. Monet

    Monet New Member

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    WOW! Kind of investor I want to be.
     
  3. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    That makes sense. Especially after reading A Random Walk Down Wall Street: Including a Life-Cycle Guide to Personal Investing, recently. :)
    I just wish I had read it much earlier. Otherwise I won't be discussing this now so late in my life.
    I have been through 3 corrections, 2000, 2009, & 2020. (Technically 4 but I didn't even know until now that there was a correction in 2018. lol). I did not handle it correctly either during those corrections or in between. That is why now I am now learning, asking questions, taking time so that I can set a good path and be comfortable knowing that it is working. I think I am getting closer. Thanks for all the replies.
     
    Bigmalx likes this.
  4. Jwalker

    Jwalker Active Member

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    Through what medium do you all invest through? I.e. brokerage accounts, IRA’s, Roth’s, etc. and why? I am very familiar with the differences just would like to know what some of you are doing and it’s a good discussion.

    I have 2 Roth IRA’s which have about 30% of my investments and my traditional 401k which holds the rest. However, My work offers a Roth 401k. I know I need to change to the Roth 401k at some point because it makes more long term sense. However, there’s something psychological about already having a medium sized account that I can keep growing into a much larger account in the next 5 years.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I really like this "little" article. The strides that Apple is making in India......with over 1.35BILLION......people is HUGE. this sort of market increase is going to being in a lot of sales and profit..........IF...........the data holds up over the medium to long term and becomes a trend.

    Apple Surprisingly Strikes Gold in This Price-Sensitive Market

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/13/apple-surprisingly-strikes-gold-in-this-price-sens/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The Indian smartphone market felt the effect of the novel coronavirus pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, with shipments cut in half year over year, according to IDC's estimates. Just 18.2 million smartphones were shipped in India for the three months ending in June, compared to 36.8 million units in the prior-year period, as a strict lockdown brought economic activity to a halt.

    Almost all major smartphone manufacturers saw huge dips in sales, but surprisingly, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) held its ground. According to a report by Indian financial daily newspaper Mint, Apple's second-quarter shipments in India increased 5% year over year during the quarter. Citing a source familiar with Apple's numbers, the Mint report pointed out that the recently launched iPhone SE, the iPhone XR, and the iPhone 11 drove the company's sales during the quarter.

    Why is this a big deal?

    Given that India is a price-sensitive market, this is a nice development for Apple, as its products are seen as luxury items in that country. So an increase in iPhone sales at a time when India's economy is not in great shape and unemployment is on the rise indicates that Apple is finally getting things right over there.

    The company's fortunes started turning around in India after it gave the iPhone XR a big price cut of $250 last year. Then it established an aggressive price point for the iPhone 11 toward the end of 2019. The attractive pricing of these two devices helped Apple record 6% growth in shipments in India last year, following a 43% contraction in 2018.

    The company has continued that momentum into 2020, with shipments growing a whopping 78% year over year in the first quarter, according to Counterpoint Research. Second-quarter shipment growth wasn't as great, but it is still quite impressive considering the state of the overall market.

    What's working for Apple in India?

    As pointed out earlier, attractive pricing has been a tailwind for Apple's shipments in India. The company has been learning from its mistakes -- and correcting them -- to woo customers in that market. For instance, the iPhone SE was launched at what seemed like an unrealistic price point for a mid-range device. But Apple changed course quickly and began selling the device for 36,999 Indian rupees (roughly $495) -- a discount of around 13% from its original launch price of 42,500 rupees.

    The company has also reduced the price of the iPhone 11 of late. Originally priced at 68,300 rupees for the 64GB model, the device was on sale for 62,900 rupees during Amazon's recent sale event in India.

    The good news for Apple investors is that the company can be expected to keep up its aggressive pricing strategy in the Indian market as it gears up to expand its production there. It recently started assembling the iPhone 11 in India -- which is a big deal, as Apple has traditionally made older-generation models in that country.

    Three of the company's contract manufacturers have reportedly applied for the Indian government's production-linked incentive (PLI) plan, which offers benefits worth 41,000 crore Indian rupees (roughly $5.5 billion at the current exchange rate). If the likes of Foxconn, Wistron, and Pegatron manage to ramp up the production of iPhones locally, Apple may be able to price its upcoming smartphones in India at par with international prices, as it won't have to pay heavy import duties.

    That could help Apple boost its market share in India's fast-growing smartphone space, which is about to get a shot in the arm thanks to the deployment of 5G technology."

    MY COMMENT

    This has the potential to open up a HUGE market. I agree completely that there is a price..........sweet spot........in India and any other country..........where.......people are willing to buy the phone for the STATUS, IMAGE, and at the same time for the great technology. PRICE IS EVERYTHING. APPLE seems to have found that sweet spot and can CAPTURE the Indian market for the long term by manufacturing in India. At the same time they just........might.........gain a little freedom from manufacturing more and more outside of China.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I will put in my 2cents for J Walker........if it is not already clear. ALL of the accounts that I manage including mine are TAXABLE ACCOUNTS. I personally have no tax deferred accounts. I prefer to pay as I go and......NOT......defer taxes. I have found that over my life having a taxable account gave me options and flexibility in business and life that someone does not have if all their money is tied up in retirement accounts.

    Since I sold my business at age 49......I have lived off personal assets. I never had a 401K, not a good option for a small business in my day. After age 59.5......I INTENTIONALLY exhausted my business retirement account (Keogh account, rolled into an IRA when I sold the business). In fact I completed that DEPLETION of my IRA just last year. From now on.......my income taxes will be GREATLY reduced by living off my income annuities.

    If I was a young working person.......at a company with a ROTH 401K......I would certainly elect the ROTH version. Of course, I would also invest the max for any matching money.
     
    #1846 WXYZ, Aug 14, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2020
  7. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    JWalker,
    1. 401K with the employer
    2. IRAs & ROTH with Fidelity & E*TRADE (2/3rd in index/mutual funds and 1/3rd individual stocks)
    3. Taxable with TD Ameritrade (All individual stocks)
    No specific reason for choice of providers (maybe there promotions. lol) but I like Fidelity the best.

    There are advantages and disadvantages of tax-deferred vs. taxable accounts. I am not sure I am doing it right but this is how it is right now.
     
  8. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    CDs lock your money. I prefer a little liquidity. Not saying you should do it. You can see from the chart, that it's not absolutely fool proof. What I use is something like this:
    Screenshot_2020-08-14-20-48-14_kindlephoto-93401539.png Screenshot_2020-08-14-20-49-23_kindlephoto-93468699.png
     
  9. AJ P

    AJ P New Member

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    A55,

    Thanks for the tip. it looks really good from the yield as well as long term price stability. Do you expect dividend/yield to drop significantly with lower interest rates or the underlying holdings are long term?
     
  10. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Hard to tell with any fund, and how it's managed. This fund holds preferred shares. I have several bond funds also. I also have REIT stock.

    For me, I like high yield and liquidity. But it's always a gamble. Anything could happen and value falls. But with preferred stock, and bonds, the rates are supposed to be fixed. So while share price my fluctuate slightly, the yield is suppose to remain the same. The highest risk is that the issuer of the bond, or preferred stock, goes bankrupt, or suspends payments. Good luck collecting on Hertz preferred shares or bonds. I still have $PCG preferred shares with suspended dividends.


    REIT companies offer very high yield. There's also more volatility. Some REIT pay monthly dividend. Risk is when vacancies are high, or rent collection stops. REIT in different sectors all have different risks. Shopping malls have been closed for months. Unemployed people have not paid rent. Essential businesses have continued to pay rent. Data centers and cell phone towers will most likely increase. Public storage lockers should be fine. Hotels have been down. You would not want to be landlord to a gym or movie theater. Grocery stores, has stations, and banks are paying rent.
     
  11. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Not saying it's for you. I have holdings in Brookfield.
    Screenshot_2020-08-14-21-43-25_kindlephoto-96659061.png
     
  12. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Back story is that there was a major gas.line explosion, and there were wildfires in California which destroyed property and killed people.

    Killed lots of people.

    The utility company was found to be at fault, and financially responsible.

    The chart shows where the company filed for bankruptcy.

    This preferred stock paid good returns, and even today, gains in value. Screenshot_2020-08-14-22-07-19_kindlephoto-98392351.png Screenshot_2020-08-14-22-11-38_kindlephoto-98361202.png
     
  13. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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    Very Important!! Supply Chains are changing. Happy Investing!
     
  14. Trahn Thompson

    Trahn Thompson Active Member

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  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I ASSUMED that the REATIL SALES numbers were bad from all the negative headlines I saw earlier in the day. So.......I did not read any articles on the data. NOW........to my surprise......I actually looked at the data and of course........IT IS POSITIVE. It is the USUAL idiots in the MEDIA that are spinning this data as NEGATIVE. I so WISH they would just report the numbers and.......LEAVE OFF.........all the OPINION BS.

    Americans keep buying stuff despite the pandemic — retail sales rise for a third straight month

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/retail-sales-july-2020.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Retail sales rose 1.2% in July versus the Dow Jones estimate of 2.3%.
    • Excluding autos, sales actually beat the consensus, rising 1.9% versus the forecast of 1.2%.
    • Electronics and appliances led gains, while bars and restaurants also were up.

    Consumers spent less than expected in July as a pullback in auto sales helped cool an economy struggling to shake off the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Retail sales rose 1.2% for the month, against the expected increase of 2.3% from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

    The news wasn’t all a letdown, however: Excluding autos, the gain was 1.9%, ahead of the 1.2% estimate. A separate report also showed that worker productivity rose at its fastest pace in 11 years, up 7.3% annualized for the second quarter and well ahead of the 1.5% Reuters estimate.

    Overall, it was the third straight monthly increase.

    “Similar to the jobs report, retail sales stand in stark contrast to the idea that growth in July ‘stalled’ – when in fact it continued at a robust, if somewhat slower, pace,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note.

    Considered a bellwether for an economy that gets two-thirds of its activity from consumers, retail sales saw an 8.4% surge in June that included huge gains in furniture and appliance sales. That June number was already strong at 7.5% but was revised higher.

    However, those gains cooled as a resurgence in Covid-19 cases caused reopening activities to slow.

    Electronics and appliance sales saw monthly sales jump 22.9% while clothing increased 5.7% and bars and restaurants, an industry especially battered by the coronavirus, were up 5%.

    Motor vehicle parts and dealers reported a 1.2% slide, bringing down the headline number. Sporting goods and book stores saw a 5% decline while home and garden suppliers reported a 2.9% drop.

    In all, it still marked the third straight monthly gain for retail, which plunged 14.7% in April then rebounded to 18.3% in May as the sharp shutdown in March to stop the virus thawed.

    The past three months show that “consumer spending has rocketed to record highs,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “There can’t still be a recession in the country if the consumer is spending their hearts out like this.”

    The future of the economy, and specifically the health of the consumer, remains a question. Extended unemployment benefits which had given displaced workers $600 a week on top of their normal benefits expired July 31, and Congress appears still sharply divided over what the next rescue package will look like.

    “Given continued high unemployment, retail sales in August and in the fall will rely to a large degree on the timing and extent of more government assistance,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

    Even with GDP down 32.9% in the second quarter as calculated over an annualized basis, consumers were still responsible for 67% of spending. Unemployment has been falling but is still at 10.2%, while Thursday’s jobless claims report also showed a slowly mending picture but with 28.3 million Americans still collecting benefits."

    MY COMMENT

    ALL IN ALL.........a positive report. UNLESS..........you just ignore the FACT that ........."consumer spending has rocketed to record highs". In addition........the numbers on worker productivity.........ROSE.........at the fastest pace in 11 years. Sounds good to me. The DOOM&GLOOM media and opinion idiots need to just........STFU.......and go away. Leave the business numbers alone and let investors do what they do......without the constant HARPING on the data to push POLITICAL CRAP.
     
    #1855 WXYZ, Aug 16, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2020
  16. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_20200810-211642_kindlephoto-1344055611.png
     
    Jwalker likes this.
  17. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Nice selections, thanks for sharing a55 (I sure hope I don’t ever need to pronounce that name ;)
    As far as stocks suspending dividends; Dis, M, LB, Cake.. those are just a few of the ones from my personal watch list who have suspended dividends and were yielding (on some occasions even quite generously) divs for a long time.
    I’m waiting for a little while now to get in with a new account dedicated just to div yielding stocks. PGX certainly looks like a solid etf. What are your thoughts on O? They yield monthly divs and are on my list.
    Also Romney’s Bain capital yields pretty nicely and I hear good reviews, but not too sure if is the one for me
     
  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    I hold it. I like the company and business model. Real Estate value appreciates. Temporary disruption from Covid. I think that O will survive as a company. Tenants with unpaid rent .......there are legal remedies........most are not mom & pop shops. They should be able to collect unpaid rent eventually. And most tenants are now paying current rent.

    I also hold $STOR. Same concept.

    As investors, we have to accept conditions beyond anyone's control. No company in the world could have seen a global pandemic. With real estate, the disruption in cash flow from unpaid rent and vacancies may mean dividends being halted or reduced. After all, the company is not being paid. How can they pay you?

    I have added to my REIT holdings. To me, the pullback represents opportunity.

    Adam Five Five. Like the old TV show. Adam 12. Or, just say "ass".
     
  19. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NICE futures pointing to a GOOD open today......but......we know that is NO GUARANTEE of how we will close. BUT.....my opinion.....going into a new week....is that the day and the week look good. EVERYTHING I am seeing tells me the probability is that we will have another POSITIVE week.

    EVEN THOUGH......everyone.....seems to be totally oblivious to earnings we do STILL have a few BIG companies to report this week.

    Top Earnings in the Week Ahead: Walmart, Home Depot and Nvidia

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/top-earnings-in-the-week-ahead-walmart-home-depot-and-nvidia

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)
    • "Walmart
      Walmart Inc. is expected to report adjusted net income of $3.6 billion, or $1.25 a share, on sales of $135.4 billion before the market opens on Tuesday, based on a FactSet survey of 29 analysts.

      In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $1.27 a share on sales of $130.4 billion. It reported net income of $3.8 billion.

      The stock has risen 5.5% since the company last reported earnings on May. 19.
      In the upcoming quarter analysts are forecasting adjusted net income of $3.3 billion, or $1.15 a share, on sales of $131.7 billion.

      For the year, analysts project revenue of $547.3 billion.

      Home Depot
      Home Depot, Inc. is expected to report adjusted net income of $4 billion, or $3.64 a share, on sales of $34.3 billion before the market opens on Tuesday, based on a FactSet survey of 28 analysts.

      In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $3.17 a share on sales of $30.8 billion. It reported net income of $2.5 billion.

      The stock has risen 18.3% since the company last reported earnings on May. 19.

      In the upcoming quarter analysts are forecasting adjusted net income of $2.9 billion, or $2.64 a share, on sales of $28.7 billion.

      For the year, analysts project revenue of $118.2 billion.


      Lowe's
      Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) - Get Report is expected to report adjusted net income of $2.2 billion, or $2.87 a share, on sales of $24.1 billion before the market opens on Wednesday, based on a FactSet survey of 26 analysts.

      In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $2.15 a share on sales of $21 billion. It reported net income of $1 billion.

      The stock has risen 33.1% since the company last reported earnings on May. 20.
      In the upcoming quarter analysts are forecasting adjusted net income of $1.2 billion, or $1.54 a share, on sales of $18.4 billion.

      For the year, analysts project revenue of $78.8 billion.


      Nvidia
      Nvidia Corp. is expected to report adjusted net income of $1.2 billion, or $1.98 a share, on sales of $3.7 billion after the market closes on Wednesday, based on a FactSet survey of 34 analysts.

      In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of $1.24 a share on sales of $2.6 billion. It reported net income of $394 million.

      The stock has risen 30.4% since the company last reported earnings on May. 21.
      In the upcoming quarter analysts are forecasting adjusted net income of $1.3 billion, or $2.20 a share, on sales of $4 billion.

      For the year, analysts project revenue of $14.7 billion.

      Estee Lauder
      Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) - Get Report is expected to report a loss of $77.2 million, or 15 cents a share, on sales of $2.4 billion before the market opens on Thursday, based on a FactSet survey of 21 analysts.

      In the same period a year ago the company posted earnings of 70 cents a share on sales of $3.6 billion. It reported net income of $555 million.

      The stock has risen 23.7% since the company last reported earnings on May. 1.
      In the upcoming quarter analysts are forecasting net income of $430 million, or $1.27 a share, on sales of $3.4 billion.

      For the year, analysts project revenue of $14.3 billion."
    MY COMMENT

    LOOKS LIKE this week is HOME IMPROVEMENT week for earnings with HD and Lowes. The BIG ONE to me is WALMART. With the many retailers that are fading and even going bankrupt lately.......WMT might have a more open field as the countries.......everyday, go-to......retail store. I notice that the MEDIA focus for investing over the weekend is DOOM&GLOOM stories about the election and the follow-up to the election. THE SPLIT KINGS.....AAPL and TSLA.....look like they will start the week with nice gains. BUT.....currently being trading vehicles........the action in both could be very erratic as waves of buyers and sellers battle each other.

    I DO HOPE that the other 5-10 stocks that SHOULD be split candidates pay attention and do the right thing for their shareholders. It would be nice to see companies put shareholders........and potential shareholders first......over the executives that are...........TOO OFTEN........the focus and priority. UNFORTUNATELY........in modern corporate thinking.......creating shareholder value EQUALS creating executive bonus value.
     

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