The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Good news for us MSFT owners. An indicator of business success.

    MICROSOFT IS WORTH MORE THAN THREE TRILLION

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micr...s-ai-mania-pushes-stock-higher-185023636.html

    LOL.....well lets see where it is after the earnings today at the close. I am happy to own FIVE of the top ten companies by market cap......MICROSOFT, APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON and NVIDIA. To me that is the basis for real long term investing.....own the cream of the crop and let them run for as long as possible.

    The others in the top ten are......SAUDI ARAMCO, META, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, ELI LILLY, and TESLA.
     
  2. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Active Member

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    We are coming down to the end of the day! As expected we are seeing a little pullback from AMD with their ER coming up after hours. I have a feeling this is going to be the catalyst for chip stocks and AI. This announcement and reaction will be the fulcrum for tech share prices.
     
  3. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    I ended up a hundred bucks on the day today so nothing special. More importantly though VLO had a nice 2.55% gain today and I sold it for a nice gain of almost 14% and avoided the drop that comes with tomorrow's ex-dividend date.

    I'm up 9.02% YTD. Gad I love this month.

    G
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here are the MICROSOFT earnings:

    Microsoft beats estimates as Azure grows faster than expected

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/microsoft-msft-q2-earnings-report-2024.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Microsoft beat on the top and bottom lines as Azure cloud growth was stronger than expected.
    • During the quarter, the software maker acquired video game publisher Activision Blizzard, its largest deal ever.

    Microsoft shares were volatile in extended trading on Tuesday after the software maker issued fiscal second-quarter results that outdid analysts’ estimates.

    Here’s how the company performed, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    • Earnings: $2.93 per share, vs. $2.78 per share expected
    • Revenue: $62.02 billion, vs. $61.12 billion expected

    Microsoft’s revenue increased 17.6% year over year in the year, which ended on Dec. 31, according to a statement. Net income, at $21.87 billion, or $2.93 per share, increased from $16.43 billion, or $2.20 per share.

    The company’s Intelligent Cloud segment produced $25.88 billion in revenue, up 20% and above the $25.29 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The grouping contains Azure cloud infrastructure, SQL Server, Windows Server, Nuance, GitHub and enterprise services.

    Within that segment, revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew 30%. Analysts polled by CNBC had expected 27.7% growth, and the StreetAccount consensus was 27.5%. The metric for the previous quarter was 29%.

    Revenue from the Productivity and Business Processes unit including Office productivity software, LinkedIn and Dynamics totaled $19.25 billion. That was up 13% and higher than the $18.99 billion StreetAccount consensus.

    The More Personal Computing segment contributed $16.89 billion in revenue, up about 19% and slightly more than the StreetAccount consensus of $16.79 billion. The segment comprises Windows, Surface, Bing and Xbox.

    During the fiscal second quarter, Microsoft closed its acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard, its largest deal ever. The company also announced custom cloud chips and started selling a $30 monthly Copilot artificial intelligence add-on to Microsoft 365 productivity software bundles.

    But layoffs continued. Microsoft’s LinkedIn subsidiary cut around 700 jobs in October on top of the 10,000 announced earlier in the year. Last week, Microsoft said it’s eliminating around 1,900 employees in its gaming unit, or about 9% of headcount, following the Activision deal.

    Microsoft shares have risen about 9% so far in 2024, while the S&P 500 index has gained 3% over that stretch.

    Executives will issue guidance and discuss the results with analysts on a conference call starting at 5:30 p.m. ET."

    MY COMMENT

    A clear BEAT all the way around. Not that it will matter these days......all that seems to matter anymore is the "guidance" which will come in the conference call. A nice result.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is GOOGLE earnings.

    Alphabet shares slide on disappointing Google ad revenue

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/alphabet-googl-q4-earnings-report-2023.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Alphabet reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for the fourth quarter, but ad revenue was weaker than analysts expected.
    • The stock dropped in extended trading.

    Alphabet shares slid more than 4% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported ad revenue that missed analysts’ estimates.

    Here are the key numbers:

    • Earnings: $1.64 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.59 per share, adjusted, expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.
    • Revenue: $86.31 billion vs. the $85.33 billion expected by LSEG.

    Wall Street is also looking at several other numbers in the report:

    • Google Cloud: $9.19 billion vs. $8.94 billion expected, according to StreetAccount.
    • YouTube ads: $9.2 billion vs. $9.21 billion expected, according to StreetAccount.
    • Traffic acquisition costs: $13.9 billion, vs $14.1 billion, according to StreetAccount.
    Alphabet reported its fastest quarter for revenue growth since early 2022, with sales climbing 13% from $76.05 billion a year earlier, the company said in a statement. However, ad revenue of $65.52 billion trailed analyst estimates of $65.94 billion, according to StreetAccount.

    YouTube, which has been helping to drive accelerated growth, came in just shy of expectations.

    Google Cloud, which competes with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, remains a growth engine, with expansion reaching 26% in the quarter from a year earlier.

    Across Alphabet, CEO Sundar Pichai continues to focus on investments in artificial intelligence and embedding new generative AI tools into more of Google’s key products. To get there, Pichai has said the company has to make cuts elsewhere, which means more layoffs on top of 12,000 cuts last year, equal to roughly 6% of its full-time workforce.

    “We are pleased with the ongoing strength in Search and the growing contribution from YouTube and Cloud,” Pichai said in Tuesday’s press release. “Each of these is already benefiting from our AI investments and innovation.”

    Alphabet said that, due to the workforce reductions last year, the company recorded severance and related charges of $2.1 billion for 2023. Additionally, Google exited some of its offices, resulting in charges of $1.2 billion for the quarter and $1.8 billion for the year.

    Net income jumped 52% in the fourth quarter to $20.7 billion, or $1.64 per share, from $13.6 billion, or $1.05 per share, a year earlier.

    Alphabet shares fell 4.3% after the close of trading on Tuesday. They climbed to a record last week and are up 56% in the past year. Shares of Meta and Microsoft have also reached fresh highs as investors continue to pour into tech stocks."

    MY COMMENT

    So here we have an example of an earnings report that......from just about EVERY aspect......is a clear BEAT. But....the nit-pickers and the bean-counters are focused on a single metric....ad-revenue. Never mind that the company as a whole reported better than expected Revenue, Profits, and Earnings.

    Nothing any one can do....you just have to sit out the short term drop for a day or two....and move on. Of course as a long term investor.....that is a no brainer.....sit and enjoy the long term future gains.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Here is another example of the STUPIDITY of the markets and the short term system.


    AMD shares fall as first-quarter forecast comes in light

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/amd-earnings-report-q4-2024.html

    "AMD reported fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday that were in line with analyst expectations, while the company’s revenue beat estimates, but AMD offered a first-quarter forecast that came short of expectations.

    AMD stock fell more than 3% in extended trading."

    MY COMMENT

    NEVER MIND.....that the earnings ere either in line or a BEAT. As usual lately it is all about the guidance. there is always something for the nit-pickers to jump on and make a mountain out of a mole hill. this is the INSANITY of the short term.....which I avoid as a long term investor. BUT note......I DO NOT OWN THIS STOCK.....and have no plans to buy it.
     
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I had a small loss today as all the big cap tech stocks slumped in the afternoon. I had three stocks UP today....NVDA, COST, and HD. I also lost out to the SP500 today by 0.10%.

    Basically an insignificant day for me today.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the short term traders and AI trading programs.....are making some money selling MSFT and GOOGL today after the close. After hours......MSFT down by (-1.26%)....GOOGL down by (-4.71%).

    I would hate to see the results if earnings had been bad. This is basically where we are with earnings reports right now. Wall Street....basically....looks for any way to claim that earnings were bad and to TRASH TALK the company for short term trading profits.

    It is INSANITY....but I see many headlines saying that GOOGLE was an earnings miss. As usual....I call BS.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE....is a more RATIONAL look at GOOGLE earnings....if you cut out the BS:

    Google Earnings: Record Profits As Stock Trades At Record High

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereks...-stock-trades-at-record-high/?sh=76339c0a39ff

    "Google parent Alphabet reported the highest quarterly revenue and profits in its 26-year history Tuesday, coinciding with a record surge in the search engine giant’s stock price.

    Key Facts

    Alphabet’s $86.3 billion in fourth-quarter sales was the most explosive period in the company’s history, breaking Q3’s record of $76.7 billion and beating consensus analyst forecasts of $85.3 billion for Q4, according to FactSet.

    The search engine maven’s top line was similarly ground breaking, as its $1.64 earnings per share was tops ever, topping Wall Street estimates of $1.59.

    Shares of Alphabet surprisingly dipped about 4% in after hours trading, still sitting near the stock’s all-time high of over $150 first achieved last week.

    2024 was a banner year for Alphabet, as its $307 billion in sales and $74 billion in net income were the highest ever, representing 9% and 23% respective growth from 2023."

    etc, etc, etc.

    MY COMMENT

    NEVER MIND....the gods of Wall Street want their little NEGATIVE trading story-line so they got it. I am sure they are making some good short term AI TRADING money after hours.

    There are many other articles on-line that are positive and accurate regarding the GOOGL earnings report.....if you care to look........but....not sensational enough to be pushed.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    NOW.....we move on to AAPL, AMZN, and META on Thursday.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I just LOVE watching the BS and Insanity that is the short term. LOL....the "experts" are always wrong on earnings so now.....we create a system where BEATS of what the experts predicted are labeled as misses. YES....the system is rigged in terms of these sorts of short term predictions and events. AND....there is always some excuse for why the earnings really dont count.....something else is more important.

    Nasdaq futures sink after early Big Tech bust, with Fed on deck

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...big-tech-bust-with-fed-on-deck-124311784.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stock futures turned mostly lower Wednesday, with the Nasdaq set to fall over 1% at the open after the first batch of results from tech giants largely failed to satisfy investors. Wall Street was also bracing Wednesday for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year.

    The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was set to sink around 1.1% Wednesday. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded about 0.5% lower after slumping slightly below its record high on Tuesday. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), meanwhile, ticked slightly above the flatline.

    "Magnificent Seven" names Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), along with chipmaker AMD (AMD), took center stage on the earnings docket Tuesday. All three stocks were hit Wednesday, with over 5% drops from the Google parent and AMD outpacing Microsoft's modest decline.

    The poor start from the tech mega-caps, which are expected to do much of the heavy lifting for the S&P 500 this earnings season, could unnerve Wall Street — at least until Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) get their turn on Thursday.

    Or until Wednesday afternoon, when the Fed gets its turn in the spotlight in a busy week
    . The Fed is largely expected to hold interest rates steady at multi-decade highs, but investors are turning their attention to any signs of when — and how much — the central bank will turn to rate cuts, as Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports.

    Boeing (BA) is the highlight of the Wednesday earnings docket amid a string of safety concerns related to its planes."

    MY COMMENT

    Not surprised by the reaction to these earnings. We have been seeing this wort of "stuff" for years now....although now.....it is more blatant.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This little article pretty much has it right.

    Wall Street punishes Alphabet and Microsoft despite earnings beats after stocks hit record

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/wal...et-and-microsoft-despite-earnings-beats-.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Microsoft and Alphabet reported results that beat analysts’ expectations on Tuesday.
    • But shares of both companies fell in extending trading.
    • “In my general conversations with public market investors and sell-side analysts, few have a correct view of the advertising market,” said Brian Weiser, an analyst at Madison and Wall.
    Results were good, but not good enough.

    That’s Wall Street’s reaction to quarterly results on Tuesday from Alphabet and Microsoft. Both companies reported revenue and earnings that exceeded estimates, yet the stocks sold off in extended trading.

    In investor speak, the stocks were priced for perfection. Alphabet shares are up 56% for the year and climbed to a fresh high last week, exceeding the prior record from late 2021, the peak of the tech boom. Microsoft is up 70% over the past 12 months, also reaching a fresh high recently and surpassing Apple as the most valuable publicly traded company.

    The companies generated excitement last year by riding the artificial intelligence wave, and were also lauded by shareholders for their dramatic cost-cutting efforts, which included eliminating thousands of jobs.

    In the weeks heading into their earnings reports, investors were buying as if they expected positive surprises. They were left disappointed and nitpicking the numbers.

    Alphabet on Tuesday reported 13% revenue growth, the fastest rate of expansion since early 2022. Sales of $86.31 billion topped the average estimate of $85.33 billion, according to LSEG, formerly Refinitiv. Earnings per share of $1.64 beat estimates by 5 cents.

    Revenue at Microsoft increased 18% to $62.02 billion, topping the $61.12 billion average analyst estimate. EPS of $2.93 was 15 cents above consensus.


    Both companies also beat expectations in their cloud businesses, with Google Cloud reporting 25% growth and Microsoft’s larger Azure and other cloud services expanding by 30%.

    PCs still big part of Microsoft’s financials but not ‘meaningful’ part of narrative: Adam Crisafulli

    The one disappointment from Alphabet was in Google’s ad business, which delivered revenue of $65.52 billion, trailing analysts’ estimates of $65.94 billion, according to StreetAccount. Within ads, YouTube came in just shy of expectations.

    Stifel analysts, who recommend buying the stock, said in a quick-take report on Tuesday that Alphabet produced “healthy advertising results, but not enough.”

    Brian Wieser, an analyst at media and advertising consultancy Madison and Wall, said the market has unrealistic expectations for Google given its size and dominance.

    “In my general conversations with public market investors and sell-side analysts, few have a correct view of the advertising market,” Weiser said. “Many think that growth can continue at double-digit levels for the fastest-growing companies for much longer a period of time than is realistic to expect.”

    Alphabet shares dropped almost 6% after the report. Microsoft’s drop was less severe. The stock initially fell by more than 2% and then pared some of its losses.

    Microsoft’s outlook was a bit light, overshadowing the earning and revenue beat. The company called for fiscal third-quarter sales between $60 billion and $61 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG had expected $60.93 billion.

    Shares of chipmaker AMD also dropped despite better-than-expected revenue numbers and profit that met estimates. The stock, which is up 137% in the past year on excitement about its artificial intelligence processors, fell almost 6% after the announcement.

    Attention now turns to Thursday, when Amazon, Apple and Meta all report quarterly results. Like Alphabet and Microsoft, Meta shares have climbed to a record this month. Apple hit its all-time high in December, while Amazon remains about 6% below its record from 2022."

    MY COMMENT

    NO.....this is NOT a priced for perfection situation....this is simply short term insanity from Wall Street.....which "amazingly".....yeah right..... favors the BIG SHORT TERM TRADERS. This stupidity is also pushed by the financial media.....you have got to have DRAMA to push the clicks.

    Even more of a reason to ONLY participate in this BS as a long term investor.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Definitely a day today.....to sit and watch the CIRCUS and the clowns. There is no way I want to be part of that.

    Over the long term beats matter. Over the long term the REAL fundamentals matter. Short term....not at all. A perfect illustration today as to the great market divide between the traders and short term speculators and the long term.....actual....investors.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Just to keep the focus on......REALITY.

    Why Microsoft, Google, and AMD's stocks are getting hit after big quarters

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...getting-hit-after-big-quarters-142450489.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "When you are a stock priced for greatness but only deliver a super good earnings report, sometimes investors will get in a huff.

    Such is the case with the initial crop of earnings from tech behemoths Microsoft (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL). The three stocks (with a combined market cap of $5.2 trillion) were instrumental in powering the broader market to records over the past year but are getting dinged after reporting earnings late Tuesday.


    The moves are "signaling some overextension of the recent strong rally," said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a client note seen by Yahoo Finance.

    At first glance, the negative moves in the stock prices would seem counterintuitive to the average investor who has ridden these tech giants to massive paper gains.

    But here is the deal, as President Biden would put it.

    That average investor probably read the earnings releases of these bellwether companies last night. I’ll say a good percentage of them listened to the earnings calls (which you should be doing!).

    By 7:00 p.m. last night, with a full page of notes, many investors still can’t figure out why these stocks are being swept into downdrafts.


    All three companies showed impressive growth numbers (especially AMD, with data center sales up 38% year over year and a 75% hike to 2024 AI chip sales estimates), hyped the AI train again (a surefire ticket for stock gains last year), and didn’t sound serious alarm bells on the economy.

    So what gives?


    The reality is that none of these quarters were perfect versus investor expectations of perfection. And believe me, investors have priced in perfection to these stocks: according to Yahoo Finance data, these three stocks trade on an average forward P/E multiple of 35 times. The S&P 500 trades at 22 times, for perspective.

    The vibe coming off these earnings, according to sources, is that growth is good because of the expansion of new AI tools and other businesses but not mind-blowingly good.

    Microsoft’s results unearthed some caution on the economy, pros say.

    "While Microsoft’s F2Q24 top-line results for the two most important businesses (Azure and Office 365 Commercial) were in line to a little better than consensus expectations (and guidance), they were a bit below what our plausible scenario anticipated, indicating slightly moderating business momentum," Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci wrote in a note to clients.

    Google missed estimates for its ad revenue (from Search and YouTube), and its cloud business didn't light it up versus its larger rival in Microsoft's Azure.

    Jefferies analyst Brent Thill noted on Alphabet: "Strong ad demand drove accelerating, double-digit growth in Search and YouTube, though shy of some investor bogeys. Cloud growth re-accelerated, but remains below Azure."

    As for AMD, its gaming chip sales fell 17% from the year prior, and guidance didn't wow the investing masses.

    "This knee-jerk reaction [to tech results] is noise, the AI revolution has started," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told me via email.

    Perhaps.

    But all in, Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and other members of the "Magnificent Seven" will have to do better than Microsoft, AMD, and Alphabet to impress investors demanding excellence paired with a side of perfection.

    If they don't, 2024 may go down as the year of the Unmagnificent Seven."

    MY COMMENT

    As usual......this IDIOCY.....will last about a week or two at most. IGNORE the noise.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HELLO......COSTCO and NVIDIA.....are you seeing this.

    Walmart announces 3-for-1 stock split as shares hover below all-time high

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/wal...plit-as-shares-hover-below-all-time-high.html

    "Key Points
    • Walmart announced a three-for-one stock split on Tuesday.
    • The company said the additional shares will be payable after the market closes Feb. 23 to shareholders of record as of the previous day.
    • The stock closed Tuesday at $165.59, shy of the all-time high of $169.94 it hit in November."
    MY COMMENT

    Way past due for COST and NVDA to split.
     
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I started doing my tax returns yesterday. I have three to do this year....mine, my sibling, and a family trust return. I was able to get one done as far as I could.....since....I still do not have info from Schwab for any of us. I am hoping to have the Schwab info on Feb 2nd.

    I use TurboTax since that is what I have been using for at least the past 15-20 years. All three will be mailed in on the absolute last day....since all three will include a check to the government.

    The personal returns are a lot simpler now since most deductions have been limited and the standard deduction is now so big. I dont itemize either of the personal returns anymore.
     
  17. Sunshinegal1981

    Sunshinegal1981 New Member

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    Hi W, yes I go back all the way to the YMAM boards,.. was there another board before that? I can't remember. Either way, I think it's been just about 20 yrs since I first "met" you... maybe 22. :)

    Need to clean out the kids' investment accounts over the next couple of weeks... make sure I haven't left any TSLA cobwebs in there....
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Well.....Sunshine....you now count as the longest online person that I know.

    Before YMAM I was on the MSN Money boards.....if we go back 20-22 years....you were probably on that old MSN boards also. Everyone moved from the MSN Money board to YMAM when MSN decided to tank all their boards.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOL......so much for he DELUSIONAL rate cut dreams. Also....so much for the shameless media that has pushed this rate cut drama.

    Fed holds rates steady, indicates it is not ready to start cutting

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-rate-decision-january-2023.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • The Federal Reserve sent a tepid signal that it is done raising interest rates but made it clear that it is not ready to start cutting.
    • The Federal Open Market Committee removed language that had indicated a willingness to keep raising interest rates until inflation had been brought under control and was on its way toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.
    • However, it also said there are no plans yet to cut rates with inflation still running above the central bank’s target.

    WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent a tepid signal that it is done raising interest rates but made it clear that it is not ready to start cutting.

    In a substantially changed statement that concluded the central bank’s two-day meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee removed language that had indicated a willingness to keep raising interest rates until inflation had been brought under control and was on its way toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.

    However, it also said there are no plans yet to cut rates with inflation still running above the central bank’s target. The statement further provided limited guidance that it was done hiking, only outlining factors that will go into “adjustments” to policy.

    “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the statement said.

    During Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference, he said policymakers are waiting to see additional data to verify that the trends are continuing.

    “We want to see more good data. It’s not that we’re looking for better data, we’re looking for a continuation of the good data we’ve been seeing,” Powell said.

    While the committee’s statement did condense the factors that policymakers would consider when assessing policy, it did not explicitly rule out more increases. One notable change was removing as a consideration the lagged effects of monetary policy. Officials largely believe it takes at least 12 to 18 months for adjustments to take effect.

    “In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” the statement said. That language replaced a bevy of factors including “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

    ‘Moving into better balance’

    Those changes were part of an overhaul in which the Fed seeks to chart a course ahead, with inflation moving lower and economic growth proving resilient. The statement indicated that economic growth has been “solid” and noted the progress made on inflation.

    “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance,” the FOMC missive said. “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.“

    Gone from the statement was a key clause that had referenced “the extent of any additional policy firming” that might come. Some Fed watchers had been looking for language to emphasize that additional rate hikes were unlikely, but the statement left the question at least somewhat open.

    Going into the meeting, markets had expected the Fed could begin reducing its benchmark overnight borrowing rate as soon as March, with May also a possible launching point. Immediately after the decision, stocks fell to session lows.

    Policymakers, though, have been more circumspect about their intentions, cautioning that they see no need to move quickly as they watch the data unfold. Committee members in December indicated a likelihood of three quarter-percentage point rate cuts this year, less ambitious than the six that futures markets are pricing, according to the CME Group.

    More immediately, the committee, for the fourth consecutive time, unanimously voted not to raise the fed funds rate. The key rate is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in nearly 23 years.

    The Fed has been riding a wave of decelerating inflation, a strong labor market and solid economic growth, giving it both leeway to start easing up on monetary policy and caution about growth that could reaccelerate and drive prices higher again. Along with 11 rate hikes, the Fed also has been allowing its bond holdings to roll off, a process that has shaved more than $1.2 trillion off the central bank balance sheet. The statement indicated that the balance sheet runoff will continue apace.

    The ‘soft-landing’ narrative

    Many economists now are adopting a soft-landing narrative where the Fed can bring inflation down without torpedoing economic growth.

    Separate reports Wednesday indicated that the labor market is softening, but so are wages. Payrolls processing firm ADP reported that private companies added just 107,000 new workers in January, a number that was below market expectations but still indicative of an expanding labor market. Also, the Labor Department reported that the employment cost index, a gauge the Fed watches closely for signals of inflation coming through wages, increased just 0.9% in the fourth quarter, the smallest rise since the second quarter of 2021.

    More broadly, inflation as measured through core personal consumption expenditures prices rose 2.9% in December from the prior year, the lowest since March 2021. On a six- and three-month basis, core PCE prices both ran at or below the Fed’s target.

    In a separate matter, the Fed also announced it was altering its investment policy both for high-ranking officials and staff. The changes expand the scope of those covered to include anyone with access to “confidential FOMC information” and said some staff might be required to submit brokerage statements or other documents to verify the accuracy of disclosures.

    The changes follow controversy over multiple Fed officials trading from private accounts at a time when the central bank was making major changes to policy in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

    MY COMMENT

    I am VERY HAPPY to get this FED stuff and the earnings out of the way this week. We need to clear away the DEELUSIONAL THINKING.....on both fronts.

    Earnings with GOOGL and MSFT were.....IN REALITY....both good beats. BUT...if the short term markets want to pretend they were not...lets get it out of the way right now. Same with the others reporting on Thursday.

    The speculators and Wall Street "experts"....egged on by the media....have been pushing the rate cut narrative for a good while now. More FANTASY. Glad to see it get squelched now.

    Get all this BS out of the way now and.....we can smartly move forward.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Regarding the above.....I am more than HAPPY to take a short term HIT this week....in order to move forward.
     

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