The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    If you are interested in the constant.....government....revisions of economic data....here you go.

    US consumer prices revised lower in December; but raised in November

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-december-consumer-prices-revised-135024985.html

    MY COMMENT

    I LOVE this little bit of this article:

    "The revisions were much ado about nothing," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. "This is becoming a trend where a Fed official mentions a data release once and then everyone waits with bated breath only to find out that it’s a bunch of noise."

    My personal view is that MOST of the economic data is simply.....NOISE. It is absolutely NOT relevant to specific business results or the markets. You know......20, 30, 40,.....years ago we did not constantly see the markets obsessing over this BS. It is all a function of the 24/7 news cycle and the modern trend of.......opinion, drama, and lame ass.....journalism.
     
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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I like this little move by NVIDIA.

    Exclusive: Nvidia chases $30 billion custom chip market with new unit

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-nvidia-chases-30-billion-123230989.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Nvidia is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence processors, according to nine sources familiar with the company's plans.

    The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and to protect itself from the growing number of companies interested in finding alternatives to its products.

    The Santa Clara, California-based company currently controls about 80% of the market for high-end AI chips, a position that has sent its market value up 40% so far this year to $1.73 trillion after it more than tripled in 2023.

    Its customers, which include ChatGPT creator OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta Platforms, have raced to snap up the dwindling supply of Nvidia chips to compete in the rapidly emerging generative AI sector.

    Nvidia's H100 and A100 chips serve as a generalized, all-purpose AI processor for many of those major customers. But the tech companies have started to develop their own internal chips for specific needs. Doing so helps reduce energy consumption, and potentially can shrink the cost and time to design.

    Nvidia is now attempting to play a role in helping these companies develop custom AI chips that have flowed to rival firms such as Broadcom and Marvell Technology, according to the sources who declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

    "If you're really trying to optimize on things like power, or optimize on cost for your application, you can't afford to go drop an H100 or A100 in there," Greg Reichow, general partner at venture capital firm Eclipse Ventures said in an interview. "You want to have the exact right mixture of compute and just the kind of compute that you need."

    Nvidia does not disclose H100 prices, which are higher than for the prior-generation A100, but each chip can sell from $16,000 to $100,000 depending on the volume purchased and other factors. Meta has said it plans to bring its total stock to 350,000 H100s this year.

    Nvidia officials have met with representatives from Amazon.com, Meta, Microsoft, Google and OpenAI to discuss making custom chips for them, according to two sources familiar with the meetings. Beyond data center chips, the company has pursued telecom, automotive and video game customers.

    In 2022, Nvidia said it would let third-party customers integrate some of its proprietary networking technology with their own chips. The company has said nothing about the program since, and Reuters is reporting its wider ambitions for the first time.

    A Nvidia spokesperson declined to comment beyond the company's 2022 announcement.

    Dina McKinney, a former Advanced Micro Devices and Marvell executive, heads Nvidia's custom unit and her team's goal is to make its technology available for customers in cloud, 5G wireless, video games and automotives, according to a LinkedIn profile. Those mentions were scrubbed and her title was changed after Reuters sought comment from Nvidia.

    Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and OpenAI declined to comment.

    $30 BILLION MARKET

    According to estimates from research firm 650 Group’s Alan Weckel, the data center custom chip market will grow to as much as $10 billion this year, and double that in 2025.

    The broader custom chip market was worth roughly $30 billion in 2023, which amounts to roughly 5% of annual global chip sales, according to Needham analyst Charles Shi.

    Currently, custom silicon design for data centers is dominated by Broadcom and Marvell.

    In a typical arrangement, a design partner such as Nvidia would offer intellectual property and technology, but leave the chip fabrication, packaging and additional steps to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. or another contract chip manufacturer.

    Nvidia moving into this territory has the potential to eat into Broadcom and Marvell sales.

    "With Broadcom's custom silicon business touching $10 billion, and Marvell’s around $2 billion, this is a real threat," said Dylan Patel, founder of the silicon research group SemiAnalysis. "It's a real big negative - there's more competition entering the fray."

    BEYOND AI
    Nvidia is in talks with telecom infrastructure builder Ericsson for a wireless chip that includes the chip designer's graphics processing unit (GPU) technology, according to two sources familiar with the talks.

    650 Group's Weckle expects the telecom custom chip market to remain flat at roughly $4 billion to $5 billion a year.

    Ericsson declined to comment.

    Nvidia also plans to target the automotive and video game markets, according to sources and public social media postings.

    Weckel expects the custom auto market to grow consistently from its current $6 billion to $8 billion range at 20% a year, and the $7 billion to $8 billion video game custom chip market could increase with the next-generation consoles from Xbox and Sony.

    Nintendo’s current Switch handheld console already includes an Nvidia chip, the Tegra X1. A new version of the Switch console expected this year is likely to include a Nvidia custom design, according to one source.

    Nintendo declined to comment."

    MY COMMENT

    I love that this company is not sitting still on its success. They are on the hunt for new products and new markets. A SUPERBLY MANAGED company.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am seeing MASSIVE content on NVIDIA all over the financial sites today.....all sorts of topics.

    Good for short term enthusiasm......but not really relevant.

    BUT......this is an OUTSTANDING company that is making a HUGE move up to become one of the top four largest companies in the world. I still see this company as similar to MSFT from 1990 to 2000. A once in a lifetime holding.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is relevant to my post above about the markets and the banking sector. NO....I have ZERO concerns and actually dont care about this issue in the slightest.

    Regional bank hit with 3rd credit downgrade as crisis concerns linger
    New York Community Bank was hit with its 3rd downgrade in a week on Thursday amid concerns about commercial real estate exposure

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...rd-credit-downgrade-as-crisis-concerns-linger
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Are we having.....FUN YET.....you bet. the markets are on fire. We are racking up gains. We are in the middle of a big BULL MARKET. We have left 2022 in the distant past.

    CELEBRATE....CELEBRATE.

    There is nothing wrong with enjoying the moment.
     
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  7. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Been busy...but came back to catch up on our little thread. I drop in and find the place has turned into wild trading and salacious behavior...:lauging:

    We have had a nice open to the year and continue to add to our previous gains. Earnings have been fine as well. Just simply riding the momentum forward, continuing contributions, and enjoying the good times.
     
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  8. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    Ugh, tax season will suck this year. Can I pay using some free PLTR stocks?
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  9. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    My account is at another high right now. Been a good week.
     
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  10. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    As long as Jensen is at the helm, I am all in with NVDA. I hate what he has done with the GPU market, but the man is an absolute brilliant CEO and executor of ideas.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.......he is the brains, heart, and soul of that company.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    When I posted that I had two stocks down today.......I forgot that I now own PLTR. It has also been down all day.
     
  13. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    You sold it. It's supposed to go up now. That's how this works! :confused:
     
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  14. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Another great day led by nvda, amzn, and lly. Sold DE a few days ago to buy LLY and VOO since DE didn't do anything for the 6 months or whatever that I had it. Did get a DE dividend today.

    Nvda is amazing. I gained 25% by early 2023, sold it and missed the big run, bought it again in August and gained 40% I think when I sold it last month, decided to rebuy it at almost the same price I sold it for and I'm up 16% now.

    Up 15.45% ytd and I'm beating the S&P 500 by almost 10%.

    Have a good weekend everyone.

    G
     
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  15. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Markets are feeling super bullish now, NOT a reflection of what’s happening around the country and the world, but that’s how it is sometimes. entering a weekend with ATH makes me always kind of skeptic, not that it matters much.
    AI is certainly the leading cause of this surge largely in tech stocks of course. Kind of feeling a little bubbly at the moment in all seriousness. If the whole thing snaps because of some catalyst like china vs Taiwan for instance in regards to chip distribution, or something along a security or regulatory issue, you will likely have a 15-20% drop with large tech favorites and a total depletion with smaller companies, and yes that likely will drag PLTR down heavily.
    Otherwise this market is SUPER enjoyable at the moment
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Having FUN today with another big FAT gain in my stocks. I also beat the SP500 by 1.32% today. I had three stocks down today....COST, HD, and PLTR.

    I am feeling good that I took my FREE SHARES in PLTR yesterday.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Another.....HUGE....week for investors especially f you happen to own what is hot right now.

    DOW year to date +2.54%
    DOW five days +0.32%

    SP500 year to date +5.98%
    SP500 five days +1.40%

    NASDAQ 100 year to ddate +8.56%
    NASDAQ 100 five days +1.90%

    NASDAQ year to date +8.29%
    NASDAQ five days +2.41%

    RUSSELL year to date (-0.14%)
    RUSSELL five days +2.98%

    A really good week for all the averages.....especially the....SP500, NASDAQ 100, and the NASDAQ. I had a KILLER week. Last week I was at +11.21 for my entire portfolio year to date. At the close today my entire account is at +15.53% year to date.

    MANY of us are seeing massive gains right now considering that we are only about 1.5 months into the new year.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    What a week....time to rest up for the weekend. Super Bowl this Sunday.

    HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.......YOU DESERVE IT.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A nice....psychological.....milestone today.

    Stock market today: S&P 500 closes above 5,000 for first time ever

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...above-5000-for-first-time-ever-210521961.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Wall Street celebrated another record close on Friday as the benchmark S&P 500 index ended above 5,000 for the first time ever.

    The record-setting session came as investors applauded a revision of December inflation data that showed it was even lower than first reported. Waves of well-received quarterly earnings also buoyed stocks, with big names in tech powering a huge chunk of market gains.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.5% to close at 5,027. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped roughly 0.1% or 60 points, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher, gaining 1.3%.

    Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA) have produced a roughly 20% return to start the year, per analysis from Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre. The returns from these four names alone account for around 70% of the S&P 500's gain this year.

    Earnings did most of the talking this week as investors were left with few broad economic updates. But they have been driving shifts in market direction thanks to their importance to the Federal Reserve's thinking on policy. Fed officials have stressed they're taking the time to check price pressures really are cooling before making any interest rate cuts.

    PepsiCo (PEP) results took center stage on Friday as the pace of corporate earnings starts to slacken. Shares slipped more than 3% after the soda and snacks giant's sales missed Wall Street estimates amid price hikes."

    MY COMMENT

    Way to go SP500....I knew you could do it.

    I like the phrase above......."Waves of well received quarterly earnings also buoyed stocks".

    Nice to see that earnings are now starting to get the attention they deserve. It has been a very good quarter of earnings and the BEATS just keep on coming.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is going to be a BIG DRAG on AMAZON stock over the next year. Fifty million shares being sold in a single year.

    I also love the little message on state taxes......which is obvious. I dont think there is any doubt the new Washington State capital gains tax and their consideration of a "Wealth Tax"....came into play here.

    I Love Miami' – Jeff Bezos Plans To Unload A Massive Amount Of Amazon Shares, But Moving To Florida Will Save Him $600 Million In Taxes

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/love-miami-jeff-bezos-plans-173219837.html

    "Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com Inc., has made the strategic decision to sell up to 50 million shares of Amazon stock, a move that comes amid his transition from Seattle to Miami. The decision, detailed in a regulatory filing, outlines a trading plan set to conclude by Jan. 31, 2025"......

    "The financial implications of Bezos’s relocation are profound, given Washington’s recent implementation of a 7% capital gains tax, from which Bezos will now be exempt in Florida. Amazon’s stock, valued at approximately $169 per share, means Bezos’s holdings could be worth around $8.5 billion. This move could result in a significant loss of potential capital gains tax revenue for Washington, estimated at approximately $595 million from Bezos alone.".....

    "While Bezos has invested $147 million in Florida real estate over the last year, this move will enable him to save over half a billion dollars in taxes. Regardless of whether his decision is driven by a fondness for Florida, a wish to be closer to his parents or strategic business considerations, the financial benefit of the tax savings is significant."....

    MY COMMENT

    I believe the sales of TSLA shares when ELON was raising money a year or so ago was a big hit for shareholders. I believe this sale will also have a big drag on Amazon stock this year.

    For the state of Washington....BUMMER. Your golden goose has flown the coop.....to the tune of 600 MILLION dollars for now and many hundreds of millions more in the future.....since.....Washington has one of the highest Estate taxes and is flirting with a Wealth Tax....DOUBLE BUMMER.
     

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