I do see this but I cant imagine this has anything to do with the TECH GIANTS. Retail sales tumbled 0.8% in January, much more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/15/retail-sales-january-2024-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Advance retail sales declined 0.8% for January, down from a 0.4% gain in December and worse than the estimate for a 0.3% drop. Sales at building materials and garden stores were especially weak, sliding 4.1%. Miscellaneous store sales fell 3% and motor vehicle parts and retailers saw a 1.7% decrease. Also, initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 212,000 for the week ended Feb. 10, a decline of 8,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised total and below the estimate for 220,000. Retail sales tumbled 0.8% in January, much more than expected Consumer spending fell sharply in January, presenting a potential early danger sign for the economy, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Advance retail sales declined 0.8% for the month following a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in December, according to the Census Bureau. A decrease had been expected: Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for a drop of 0.3%, in part to make up for seasonal distortions that probably boosted December’s number. However, the pullback was considerably more than anticipated. Even excluding autos, sales dropped 0.6%, well below the estimate for a 0.2% gain. The sales report is adjusted for seasonal factors but not for inflation, so the release showed spending lagging the pace of price increases. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up just 0.6%. Headline inflation rose 0.3% in January and 0.4% when excluding food and energy prices, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. On a year-over-year basis, the two readings were 3.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Sales at building materials and garden stores were especially weak, sliding 4.1%. Miscellaneous store sales fell 3% and motor vehicle parts and retailers saw a 1.7% decrease. Gas station sales also declined 1.7% as prices at the pump dropped during the month. On the upside, restaurants and bars reported an increase of 0.7%. The control group of retail sales, which excludes items such as food service, autos, gas and building materials, fell 0.4%. The number feeds directly into the Commerce Department’s calculations for gross domestic product. Consumer strength has been at the center of a U.S. growth picture that has proven far more durable than most policymakers and economists had expected. Spending accelerated by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, finishing out a year in which gross domestic product rose 2.5% despite widespread predictions for a recession. However, worries linger that stubbornly high inflation could take its toll and jeopardize prospects going forward. “It’s a weak report, but not a fundamental shift in consumer spending,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. “December was high due to holiday shopping, and January saw drops in those spending categories, plus frigid weather plus an unfavorable seasonal adjustment. Consumer spending likely won’t be great this year, but with real wage gains and increasing employment it should be plenty to help keep the economy expanding.” A separate economic report Thursday showed continuing labor market strength, another critical bedrock for the economic picture. Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 212,000 for the week ended Feb. 10, a decline of 8,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised total and below the estimate for 220,000, the Labor Department reported. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled just shy of 1.9 million, up 30,000 on the week and higher than the 1.88 million estimate. There also was some good news on the manufacturing front, as regional surveys in the Federal Reserve’s Philadelphia and New York districts both came in better than expected for February. The Philadelphia survey showed a reading of 5.2, up 16 points and better than the -8 estimate, while the Empire State survey for New York was at -2.4. Although the New York survey still indicated contraction, it was a much better reading than January’s -43.7 and the -15 estimate. The surveys measure the share of companies reporting growth, so a positive reading indicates expansion. Markets largely took the reports in stride, with stock futures pointing to a higher open on Wall Street. Investors are closely watching the numbers for clues about which way the Fed will go in terms of monetary policy and interest rates. Federal Reserve officials have said they are satisfied enough with the prospects for both inflation falling and growth holding steady that the rate-hiking cycle begun in March 2022 is likely over. But they are watching the data closely, with most saying that they will need more evidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the central bank’s 2% goal before starting to cut. Futures market pricing is indicating the first rate reduction will happen in June, with the Fed moving a total of four times, or a full percentage point, by the end of 2024. MY COMMENT If this is the reason for the RED in all the TECH GIANTS and other big cap giant stocks.....well that is BS. In fact this looks like a HUGE positive for the markets to me. It is an indicator of potential economic weakness. It is good news for future and continuing reduction of inflation. It is good news in terms of there being NO MORE FED hikes. BUT.....that is how the markets want to work right now over the speculative short term.......good news....the markets freak out.....bad news....the market freaks out......no news.....the market tries to find something to freak out over. Another reason this is good news is the reaction in the markets today shows that we are FAR from being overly exuberant. There is still a huge wall or worry and skepticism in the markets. Good news for the bull market.
YEP.....at least according to the financial media.....the above is the driver of the markets today. S&P 500 ticks higher as Wall Street tries to regain momentum: Live updates https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 rose slightly Thursday as Wall Street tries to claw back this week’s losses. However, gains were kept in check by weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data."........ "Earnings season continued to paint a muddled picture of corporate America. Tripadvisor jumped 8% after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. On the other hand, Cisco shares were down 3% after the tech company announced layoffs and weak forward sales projections. Deere stock dropped more than 4%, after the agricultural machinery manufacturer lowered guidance for its full-year net income guidance. Shares of Alphabet slid nearly 3%."........ MY COMMENT Above is the guts of this little article. As to retail sales....see above. As to earnings....they are coming in GREAT, thank you. MUDDLED is a ridiculous descriptive word for the earnings this time around.
I dont see how the retail sales data can keep the NASDAQ down today. I expect that by the close it will be in the green. BUT....you never know.....the level of insanity in the short term markets is worse than I have ever seen it.
I assume this also has something to do with the RED NASDAQ today. Cisco says it’s cutting 5% of global workforce, amounting to over 4,000 jobs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/cis...f-global-workforce-in-restructuring-move.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Cisco said it would let go of 5% of employees, which works out to around 4,250 people. The company’s quarterly and full-year forecasts were light. Cisco announced plans to cut 5% of its workforce on Wednesday, a decision that will result in the elimination of about 4,250 jobs. Shares of Cisco were down as much as 9% in extended trading. It’s the latest tech company to downsize in 2024, as the industry continues to squeeze out costs following the market downturn that hit two years ago. January was the busiest month for job cuts in the industry since March, as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and SAP all said they were eliminating positions, as did eBay, Unity and Discord. So far this year, 144 tech companies have laid off almost 35,000 workers, according to the website Layoffs.fyi. In addition to disclosing the job cuts, Cisco reported strong fiscal second-quarter results but gave a light forecast. Here’s how it did in comparison with the consensus from LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv: Earnings per share: 87 cents, adjusted, vs. 84 cents expected Revenue: $12.79 billion, vs. $12.71 billion expected Cisco’s revenue declined 6% year over year during the quarter, which ended on Jan. 27, according to a statement. Net income fell to $2.63 billion, or 65 cents per share, from $2.77 billion, or 67 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. The company has yet to close its $28 billion acquisition of monitoring and security software maker Splunk. Cisco now expects to complete the deal late in the first calendar quarter or early in the second quarter, CEO Chuck Robbins said on a conference call with analysts. Revenue from networking products totaled $7.08 billion, slightly below the $7.10 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. With respect to guidance for the fiscal third quarter, Cisco called for 84 to 86 cents in adjusted earnings per share on $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG were looking for adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share on $13.09 billion in revenue. For the full year, Cisco sees $3.68 to $3.74 in adjusted earnings per share and $51.5 billion to $52.5 billion in revenue. Analysts had projected $3.86 in adjusted earnings per share, with $54.26 billion in revenue. The guidance excludes an impact from Splunk. Robbins flagged challenges weighing on the guidance during the call. “In terms of the macro environment, we are seeing a greater degree of caution and scrutiny of deals given the high level of uncertainty,” Robbins said. “As we’re hearing this from our customers, it’s leading us to be more cautious with our forecast and expectations. Second, as we discussed last quarter and subsequently saw in other technology provider results, customers have been taking time since the start of our fiscal 2024 to deploy the elevated levels of products shipped to them in recent quarters, and this is taking longer than our initial expectations.” Demand remains sluggish among telecommunications and cable service provider clients, Robbins said. Cisco said it was increasing its dividend by a penny to 40 cents per share." MY COMMENT Another earnings BEAT. AND....the usual market reaction to ignore the numbers and focus on the guidance.
REALLY.....I agree of course. Weighing the January CPI’s Inflation ‘Disappointment’ Will a CPI wiggle really mean much to earnings 3 – 30 months out? https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...ing-the-january-cpis-inflation-disappointment (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks sink on higher-than-expected inflation, fading hopes for Fed rate cuts. So blared headlines Tuesday. To many, it is axiomatic that stocks hinge on the Fed, and the Fed hinges on slight consumer price index (CPI) wiggles—an obsession leading the world to sweat the very, very small stuff. As an antidote, we suggest looking at this the way stocks do when they are acting as weighing machines rather than day-to-day voting machines: Consider how much this truly matters to corporate earnings over the next 3 – 30 months. We know Tuesday’s volatility says otherwise. Seeing the S&P 500’s biggest down day in a while follow an inflation report everyone called disappointing because January headline prices slowed to 3.1% y/y versus an expected 2.9% on a month-over-month uptick can reinforce notions of a strong link between them. But heat-of-the-moment reactions like this often aren’t real. Maybe it really is a disappointing bit of news knocking the wind out of stocks—in which case, fine, these things pass quickly. Or maybe it is just that a bunch of traders had certain buy/sell triggers programmed in and executed those trades, which triggered more trades, which then triggered still more trades, and the tug of war over whether this is a buying day or a selling day netted out to something irrational and detached from reality. The maddening, frustrating thing is that the conclusion to this dilemma is nearly always, who knows. So yes, we get the frustration. Which is why we share with you the best darned way we know to navigate it: Rise above and look longer term. On any given day, stocks will do what they do based on millions of trading decisions made for different reasons, with different time horizons in mind. Feelings and biases tend to float to the top—feelings about the future and biases about what technical indicators allegedly mean stocks will do over the next five seconds (or five minutes, five hours, five days, or, or, or). It is all noise and static. But over a more meaningful timeframe, all the noise cancels itself out, and stocks’ dynamite tendency to weigh the likely economic reality moves to the forefront. This underpins the wisdom of Ben Graham’s legendary description of the market being a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. It is right, in our view, and the framing is a sanity lifeline. Accordingly, let us view the inflation conversation in this light. The consensus is that because CPI slowed less than expected—and because allegedly stickier services prices bore much of the responsibility—investors pushed out their rate cut expectations from May to June, and this sank stocks because the rally rests on the prospect of rate cuts. Whatever you think of rate-cut timing, the latter part of that assertion is dubious. The bull market began in October 2022, when the Fed was hiking at a steep pace and no one seemed capable of even dreaming of rate cuts, never mind projecting when they would arrive. Since then, stocks have moved ahead of better-than-expected US economic growth and the corporate earnings recovery data now reflect. These are all fundamental bedrocks for a sustained market rally, far firmer footing than flimsy hopes about one Fed-controlled interest rate. But even if rate cuts were the swing factor here, ask yourself: What in the world does it matter to corporate earnings in the balance of this year and 2025 if the Fed makes its first rate cut in May, June, July, September or even later? (Not that there is really any hint here what the Fed may do, because no one knows how that cabal of people will interpret these or other data.) Even at higher rates, business investment is rising, and capital markets are allocating capital to growing firms. If high rates aren’t deterring this vital economic activity, then how does it make sense to argue stocks absolutely need a rate cut in May to justify higher valuations? Any planned investment that depends on rates being a tad lower is marginal, and businesses probably won’t make it regardless. There are simply far more—and more powerful—forces affecting businesses’ planning and consumer demand than whether the Fed starts nudging borrowing costs down in spring, summer or autumn 2024. Especially when we already have a great deal of evidence—courtesy of rock-bottom bank deposit costs—that Fed rate hikes didn’t much impact the real-world cost of money anyway. Maybe stocks didn’t appear to look past CPI and rate chatter Tuesday. Sometimes that happens. But that doesn’t mean you should obsess over it, especially when the data didn’t show anything in the way of meaningful changes. One big driver was shelter prices, which have been among the most stubborn—and which tend to lag real life by about a year and a half due to the way CPI is calculated. There is a big backlog of multifamily housing units under construction and about to come online, and this should help continue taming housing costs as time passes. Meanwhile, anemic money supply suggests we shouldn’t have a resurgence of too much money chasing too few goods and services, which is what it would take to jumpstart inflation anew. Don’t fight the last war." MY COMMENT YES......the chasm.....between the short term speculation and the long term is very wide and deep. Two ships passing in the night. I will sit tight on the ship I prefer.....the long term....fundamental....ship.
So, a little update to my journey. As most regulars here might have noticed my appearance here on our thread has been a bit limited lately. (Side note...if you have not noticed at least pretend you have) Anyway, I have been circling the runway to retirement for the last year or so. I had been making plans, tidying up and simplifying my investment plans, and all the other things I wanted to consider. Whether I would or not....I was not sure, but wanted to have the option to do so. As these things go along, it is often difficult for others not to get a "hint" or notice....company wise. Obviously, I was not planning on it being a surprise or a bolt out the door moment. I respect the company too much to go that way. Sure enough, the company figured it was time for the talk. It was a amicable discussion. When you get to this point in your career and have long, long tenure.....you have the ability, experience, and often freedom to speak freely without any reservation. Always professional, but you can eliminate a lot of BS talk. To borrow a line from our great thread...SHOW ME THE MONEY. I am compensated well enough at the moment, but to tip the scale in the companies favor and obtain a few more years out of me....well, you are going to have to purchase that extra time. Of course, I was fine either way. Either outcome would work for me. A good position to be in. They thought about it respectfully....and came back with a promotional offer and significantly more money. As usual, I took some time to consider it. After some thought....I accepted it. So, my time has not come yet....and I sail on.
I volunteered for that talk. I wasn't on the list so I got myself on the list. I was going to leave anyway, even without the talk. And, it still hit me hard. Somehow, the permanence of it hit home. As well as being lucrative, I headed into a few contracts which were extremely helpful financially as well as being oddly fun. Best wishes, Smokie. Congratulations.
Way to go SMOKIE. That extra money for a couple of years should help to BOOST your retirement. Sounds like you handled the situation professionally and with the perfect "touch". Also shows that you company actually VALUES YOU.
Yes the psychological impact of retirement is an issue for many people. It IS a major life change. The better you are financially prepared the better the process of retiring will go. BUT....even being financially prepared does not lessen the psychological impact for many people. BUT in the end....it is something we all have to go through....unless you die with your boots on. Sort of like a variation of the old....mid-life crisis. I am at the age....being in my mid seventies.....that I see people struggle with and fight against the transition from middle age life.......to older life. Having something to do and a purpose outside of work seems to make a HUGE difference.....as does good health.
OK....enough screwing around.....time for the NASDAQ to make a break for the GREEN. SHOW ME THE GREEN.
Agreed. I think what has helped me along the way has been advanced planning. I knew about when I would enter this final stretch and prepared for it. It gave me options. Extending my time was always one of those options, but with certain criteria. Giving a nice additional boost to my retirement on the back end was one of those. So, it worked out nicely in that respect.
HERE....is the NVDA news of the day. Nvidia's maiden 13F filing sends AI-focused tech stock soaring Nvidia filed an update on holdings in its small but influential AI portfolio. https://www.thestreet.com/investing...3f-filing-sends-ai-focused-tech-stock-soaring (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) unveiled a surprise investment in a small tech group late Wednesday that underscores its bets on the broad reach that AI-related technologies are likely to have over the coming year. Nvidia, which holds the market's dominant position in artificial-intelligence-chip making under the leadership of CEO Jensen Huang, also runs a small portfolio of investments that, under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, require quarterly public updates normally reserved for hedge funds and large investment vehicles. In the group's first-ever 13-F with the SEC last night, Nvidia noted a small $3.67 million stake in SoundHoundAI (SOUN) , a Santa Clara, California-based tech group focused on its signature voice-activated AI platform. Nvidia noted that it owned around 1.73 million shares of SoundHoundAI, following an original investment of around $75 million during a funding round completed in 2017. Analyst Ives on SoundHoundAI: 'positive indicator' "We view this as a positive indicator for the company, as this investment now further solidifies the company's brand within the AI Revolution," said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who carries an outperform rating and $5 price target on SoundHound. "With the Godfather of AI Jensen [Huang] and Nvidia now backing SoundHound, [we] believe this could be the start of a broader investment into the company down the line, which is a clear tailwind," Ives added. Nvidia also noted its $47.3 million stake in chipmaking rival Arm Holdings, which it tried to purchase outright in 2021 for around $40 billion. The group listed on the Nasdaq in September in a $5 billion IPO and remains 90%-owned by Japan's SoftBank. Another stake detailed in the 13-F was a $76 million holding in Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) , which uses AI technologies in its drug-discovery process. Other Nvidia holdings include medical-device group Nano-X Imaging (NNOX) and TuSimple Holdings, TSPH a tech company focused on full-self-driving technologies. SoundHoundAI said last month that Jersey Mike's, the Manasquan, N.J., sandwich chain, will use its voice-activated AI platform to help communicate with customers in taking orders and answering menu-related queries. It can also "provide details about opening hours, parking availability and allergen information, and respond to frequently asked questions," the company said. The group had revenue of $13.3 million over the three months ended in October, based on its last financial report, a figure that is estimated at around $18 million for the final three months of last year. "With AI becoming increasingly more popular, the company is experiencing many inbound leads as the dynamic finally starts to shift in terms of AI usability," Ives said. "We continue to believe that SoundHoundAI is in a strong position to capture its fair share of the AI chatbot market demand wave in 2024 and beyond with its technology providing more use cases going forward," he added. SoundHoundAI shares were marked 54% higher in early Thursday trading and changing hands at $3.48 per share, a level that would value the group at around $890 million." MY COMMENT This is a smart move for NVDA. It gives them a foot in the door on a number of companies and a good inside view of the company operations. Perhaps in the future some of these companies will become acquisition targets. A good use of corporate funds.....and really PEANUTS for NVDA compared to the potential pay-off in the future. This also gives NVDA a little bit of ability to direct and push the future direction of AI.
I noticed some posts back about it being.....tax time again. Yes, it is. Pay up...Pay up. As if they have not received enough already throughout the year. Being this is an election year, usually once it is over a report will come out showing a total amount spent on campaigns. It is usually mind blowing the amounts spent. They should take that amount and return it to taxpayers....another stimulus if you will. I wonder if we would still be bombarded with all of the ads, signs, forums, and such if that were the case.
NO.....I am not going to be buying or recommending any of the companies listed in the article above. they are all just too small cap except for ARM. None of the above really meet my criteria for investment.....AMERICAN, BIG CAP, ICONIC, WORLD WIDE LEADER, etc, etc, etc.
I was able to knock off two tax returns late last night when I returned from doing some music. Doing taxes.....a good way to wind down late at night. And randomly speaking of taxes....I just heard in the background of business TV that we are now at a record high. The very top earners in the tax world are now paying 40% of the ENTIRE taxes here in the USA. Actually....it is worse than that....the real figure is 46%. "The newly released report covers Tax Year 2021 (for tax forms filed in 2022). The newest data reveals that the top 1 percent of earners, defined as those with incomes over $682,577, paid nearly 46 percent of all income taxes – marking the highest level in the available data. Notably, the amount of taxes paid by this percentile is nearly twice as much as their share of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), underscoring the progressive nature of the tax system." Who Pays Income Taxes? https://www.ntu.org/foundation/tax-page/who-pays-income-taxes AMAZINGLY the TOP pay this much of the countries taxes. Top 1%..........46% Top 5%..........66% Top 10%........76% Top 25%........90% Top 50%........98% The hefty price of success. I got some good news last night....with how I have structured my retirement, my taxes hit an all time LOW for the past 40+ years. BUT......I still owe money on April 15. I am doing my little part to fund my country.
Congrats Smokie, you strike me as a well rounded, level headed person, and sure enough you made the right decision for you and your finances. Ok, I made a trade today, which is rare and this would be a first in a long time. I have two accounts, one for my long term holdings and one for short (short being anywhere from 6 months to 2 years), and so I have ENPHASE on both accounts. So this morning I hit my target goal of 10% gains with that company and sold. I STILL own it on my long term portfolio and WILL BUY IT AGAIN on my short term portfolio if it gets back down to 100-110. I am actually willing to bet that it will soon as it seems like a company that many people trade, although a very good one and a leader at that. So there you go. First trade for 2024 for me!
Thanks zukodany. I have seen ENPH mentioned a few times by you as a holding from time to time. I read a little blip about it quite sometime ago and an acquaintance I knew made out like a bandit on it at one time. I think he got in at the right time and had great timing in both the purchase and when he eventually made an exit.
The shares I bought the other day during our little dip have been on the green side since purchased. I would like a nice green week from the market because of that...LOL. It is always nice to see that after a buy. Of course these shares will be sitting nicely somewhere long, long down the road I have no doubt about it.
