The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A good strong open today.....although we are seeing it fade some right now.

    Stocks little changed following record-setting week

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-following-record-setting-week-143029666.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks took a breather on Monday after closing out a dizzying week at record highs, as investors braced for a looming inflation update that could put that rally to the test.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) were little changed on the heels of notching new closing highs. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) wavered around the flatline following a stellar week for tech stocks

    New inflation data in the coming days will test the staying power of the breakout rally that followed Nvidia's (NVDA) results. A hotter-than-expected CPI report spooked the market and sparked a stock sell-off earlier in February, and investors are already weighing the chances of a surprise in Thursday's PCE index reading.

    Given the PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the reading will factor into the ongoing debate on the timing of a rate cut, already pushed back.

    The inflation report is the highlight of this week's data, with temperature checks on the consumer and manufacturing also on deck. What they say about the health of the US economy may determine whether the bullish mood in stocks continues.

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) closed in on a $1 trillion market value after the Warren Buffett-led conglomerate posted a record annual profit for the second year in a row. In his annual letter to shareholders at the weekend, Buffett said Berkshire is "built to last" and paid tribute to the part played in that by his right-hand man Charlie Munger.

    Elsewhere in corporate results, Domino's Pizza (DPZ) shares popped about 6% after the restaurant and delivery chain lifted its dividend and beat fourth-quarter sales estimates."

    MY COMMENT

    As this little article shows.....NOTHING...in happening this week. Of course we have the PCE.......but to me that is.....NOTHING.

    As usual.....the fear mongers will be pushing their agenda as usual.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I posted this just a few days ago:

    "I am excited....no not the markets.....art.

    A bronze sculpture that I have been waiting for is now complete at the foundry. I am waiting to see the shipping cost and get it onto a truck and headed to Austin. Hopefully we will have it here in about 7-10 days.

    It does violate one of my art buying "rules"....to only buy dead artists that have market values established by the actual market.

    This particular artist is age 82 and this particular sculpture is one of his most iconic items. Surprisingly I routinely see smaller versions of this particular sculpture sell at auction for a higher price than the larger copy that I purchased. Most people in the art world.....buying older and smaller copies at auction.....are not aware of about 20 copies this size being currently available. I imagine they will all sell out over the next year or two.

    Basically my auction sales research confirms that I am getting a very good deal.....with good future appreciation potential. Although....is art an investment? Sometimes. But even with good price increases...... it is difficult for a piece of art to meet or beat stock market returns.


    This particular sculpture is Western Art. Right now Western art is BOOMING.....and that is an understatement. My sculpture is 20 inches and I purchased at $15,000....directly from the artist. The sold out smaller version, at about 15 inches, sells routinely at auction for......$15,000 to $18,000. This is not a "size" issue. The larger version WILL be worth more. It is simply an issue of people not being aware of this issue being available."

    The rest of the story:

    The sculpture was crated and ready to ship last week on Wednesday.....and....it is now on the way. That evening the artist passed away. I guess our sculpture will be the last piece produced during his lifetime.

    Legendary Arizona artist Ed Mell dies at 81. His legacy is a celebration of the Southwest

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/ent.../ed-mell-arizona-artist-obituary/72715115007/

    In Memoriam: Ed Mell

    https://www.arizonahighways.com/article/memoriam-ed-mell

    His most ICONIC sculpture:

    https://www.segwayofscottsdale.com/jack-knife-sculpture-scottsdale-az.html
     
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  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have a good small/medium gain going on so far today. Four stocks are in the green right now....NVDA, COST, HD, AND LITTLE PLTR.

    COST and NVDA are my stars today....with very good gains. I am not sure what is driving COST today....I do see this story....but I dont think this would be the reason for the current gain of.....$6.91.


    Costco to open ‘a different kind’ of store for first time in 15 years and shoppers will see two big changes

    https://www.the-sun.com/money/10487358/costco-new-store-furniture-appliances-showroom/
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Sounds good to me for....investors in general.....the magnificent seven.....business in general.....the bull market.....long term investors.

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says AI is not just hype — ‘This is real’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/26/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-ai-is-not-just-hype-this-is-real.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • “This is not hype. This is real. When we had the internet bubble the first time around … that was hype. This is not hype. It’s real,” Dimon said.
    • Dimon called himself a “big optimist” about the emerging technology, mentioning cybersecurity and pharmaceutical research as areas where it can be helpful.
    • “It may invent cancer cures because it can do things that the human mind simply cannot do,” Dimon said.

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on state of the US economy, commercial real estate risks and AI hype

    The burgeoning artificial intelligence tools from companies such as OpenAI still have their share of skeptics, but don’t count JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon among them.

    The Wall Street titan told CNBC’s Leslie Picker on Monday that AI is not just a passing fad and is bigger than just the large language models such as Chat GPT. He compared the current moment favorably to the tech bubble around the start of the 21st century, when investor excitement seemingly got ahead of the actual changes.

    This is not hype. This is real. When we had the internet bubble the first time around … that was hype. This is not hype. It’s real,” Dimon said. “People are deploying it at different speeds, but it will handle a tremendous amount of stuff.”

    JPMorgan has done work on the ability to use the new technologies internally, with Dimon saying that AI will eventually “be used in almost every job.” JPMorgan created a new role of chief data and analytics officer last year, in part to handle AI.

    Dimon said Monday that there are 200 people at JPMorgan doing research on the large language models that have recently been rolled out by tech companies.

    While acknowledging that AI can be used by bad actors, Dimon called himself a “big optimist” about the emerging technology, mentioning cybersecurity and pharmaceutical research as areas where it can be helpful.

    “It may invent cancer cures because it can do things that the human mind simply cannot do,” Dimon said."

    MY COMMENT

    Companies across the board are racing to adopt and use this technology. When I talk to people in the corporate world.....it is exploding. Companies everywhere are hiring Chief AI officers and executives. Top employees are rushing to get up to speed on this tech.

    The impact on...EVERYTHING....for better or worse will be MASSIVE.
     
  7. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Active Member

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    Yes W, I own a restoration shop that specializes in late 60's muscle cars. What started as a hobby turned into a business. Great side money but I don't want to do it for a living.
     
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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A wasted day today....for no reason. I ended with a TINY loss for the day. Three stocks in the GREEN....NVDA, COST, and PLTR.

    At least I was able to do better than the SP500 by 0.18%
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Looking at articles on the market close.....there is NOTHING different from what I posted about the market open and this week in general. So the markets were simply directionless today....for NO reason in particular. In other words....NORMAL.
     
    #19009 WXYZ, Feb 26, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2024
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    When I saw this headline my initial thought was traders that missed out of the NVDA phenomenon. Looks like this is mostly true.

    Nvidia bets dominate US options market as AI fervor grows

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-bets-dominate-us-options-185722582.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors' fervor for all things AI-related is leaving its mark on the U.S. options market, as traders pile in to derivatives bets to gain exposure to the red-hot investing theme.

    Options on artificial-intelligence darling Nvidia accounted for 25 cents of every dollar of premium - the price of contracts - traded in U.S. single-stock options over the past month, nearly $3 billion in options premium traded in the chipmaker's options every day on average, a Reuters analysis of Trade Alert data showed. During several recent sessions, Nvidia surpassed Tesla as the option market’s most heavily traded name for the day.

    Nvidia briefly hit $2 trillion in market value for the first time on Friday - two days after it released quarterly earnings - riding on insatiable demand for its chips which feature prominently in the generative AI craze.

    Nvidia recently became the third-largest U.S.-listed company as measured in market capitalization. Its shares command a weighting of 4.5% in the S&P 500, giving them an outsized influence on the broader index's moves.

    Nvidia's options should remain popular with traders, "both from a hype and mechanical index perspective," said Garrett DeSimone, head of quantitative research at OptionMetrics. "It represents such a large portion of S&P 500 weighting."

    The stock's options have drawn a range of bets, including ones guarding against a drop in the stock toward $350 by March and others that would bear fruit if the stock extended its meteoric rise toward $900 and higher in coming months.

    Nvidia shares were up 1.4% at $798.90 on Monday afternoon.

    A host of other AI names has also drawn heavy options volume, including Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings. Nvidia’s shares are up about 60% year-to-date, while those of Super Micro Computer have risen 200% and Arm’s have gained 77%. Nvidia is not the first company to captivate options players. Derivatives bets on electric-vehicle manufacturer Tesla accounted for around half of all equity, index and ETF options premium in October 2021, as the company’s shares soared. Tesla’s options remain a crowd-puller that still often feature on the list of any given day's most actively traded options.

    Though the frantic pace of trading in Nvidia’s options could ease now that its earnings report is in the rearview mirror, market participants said the AI theme was likely to remain popular among investors.

    Some of the future demand for Nvidia's options is likely to come from investors who may have missed the wild rally in the stock. "There are undoubtedly institutions that may not want to chase an already highly appreciated stock but don’t want to miss out on the rally," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Buying options would "allow them to get leveraged exposure to Nvidia's upside but with a defined cash outlay," he said.

    MY COMMENT

    I believe the last paragraph above is the primary reason. MANY of the professionals totally missed out on owning NVDA. BUMMER.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A cautionary note....for those that plan to, or think they are, "INVESTING" in art......or.....other "stuff".

    How NOT to Collect Art

    https://lookingforjimmy.com/2015/11/20/how-not-to-collect-art/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "OK, I realize I may lose some clients with this post. But if it prevents just a few people from making the same costly mistakes I’ve seen collectors make over and over and over again it will be worth it.

    I recently received a message from an old friend and customer who I had not heard from in years.

    He had fallen on hard financial times and was looking for assistance in liquidating his collection. I told him I was no longer on the retail side of the business –haven’t been in years. But since he lived close by I would be glad to pay a visit and see if I could help.

    Fast forward to the end of our meeting: I wasn’t able to help him with a single item.

    [​IMG]San Xavier by Erna Lange. 30 x 40 Oil on canvas. Despite being a well educated and talented artist who left behind a large body of work, the value of Lange’s work has very little demand in the secondary market, primarily due to poor promotion of her estate.

    Why? Nearly every work had been purchased from local art shows in the Carefree-Cave Creek-Scottsdale area. “So why does that matter?” you might be asking.

    Well if you really don’t know you may wish to keep reading.


    Keep in mind I’m only offering this advice on how not to put together a collection solely for those who plan on selling all or part of their holdings in the future.

    If you just want to put together a bunch of stuff because it fills up wall space, helps bring together the orange couch and the lime green carpet, and you don’t care what happens when you decide to get rid of all or any of it then, as you’ve likely heard ad nauseum, buy whatever you like.

    However be aware you probably won’t do much better than garage sale prices when the time comes to sell.
    In fact, a yard sale is about the only place you’ll be able to move the goodies unless a consignment store decides they need to fill up some wall space.

    [​IMG]Delicate Arch by Ed Mell. 40 x 40 Acrylic on canvas. Mell is one of the few living Southwestern artists whose work has gained a serious secondary market following in his lifetime. Auction prices typically exceed tens of thousands of dollars. This gem was picked up for $5 (that’s right…$5) at a hair salon liquidation sale. Hey, who needs Christies or Sothebys to start a great collection?


    But if you want to put together a collection that will hold most or all of its value or possibly even appreciate over the long term then you may wish to read further.

    Please keep in mind I DO NOT MAKE ANY OF THESE RULES. While that may seem fairly obvious I often get reactions which indicate a belief to the contrary. Honestly, I have no control over these factors. In the end the art market prevails -not small time dealers like me.

    “I don’t make the rules,” I’ve told people more times than I can count, “But I’ve learned to live with them.” And so can you.

    So let’s start with some of the basics.

    Primary Market and Secondary Market

    The primary art market consists of works which are offered for sale for the first time. This could be through a number of channels, including galleries, exhibitions, fairs, shows or even from the artist(s) directly.

    The secondary art market consists of works which have already been sold at least once. Auction houses are typically the most active in this area of the market, but there are galleries specializing in the secondary (like the Blue Coyote Gallery -when it was open) and even a few shows i.e. The LA Art Show.

    When a secondary market has been established for an artist’s work, it is deemed “collectible”.

    Collectible works can be purchased in the primary market, but as a percentage of the overall market it is low. Very few artists gain extensive enough followings in their life time for their work to become collectible in the secondary market. But it does happen.

    [​IMG]Hoop Dancer by John Nieto 60 x 40 acrylic on canvas. Born in 1936, Nieto is still living. Prior to 2005 I could only find three (3) documented auction records of his work. Since then, over 85 pieces have sold at auction with highest going for over $15,000. Conclusion: In the last ten years a strong secondary market has developed for Nieto’s work.

    How does one know when a secondary market has evolved for an artist? There are no written guidelines here. One of my benchmarks is when over twenty-five auction transactions have occurred (this can be tracked via services like Askart.com) an artist’s work can be deemed “collectible”.

    So this brings us to Rule #1

    Do not buy any pieces by artists who have no known secondary market for their works. If you do, you will likely be lucky to get pennies on the dollar when you sell.


    Rule #2

    See Rule #1


    Rule #3

    See Rule #2


    You don’t believe me? OK, time for another war story.

    Several years ago I appraised the art collection of a famous Phoenix real estate developer whose fortunes took a serious dive in the 2008 meltdown. Shortly thereafter he committed suicide. The estate consisted of over 130 pieces. Only three had “collectability”. “The Fritz Scholder pieces will likely sell for close to or maybe even a little more than the appraised value,” I told his personal secretary, “but everything else will likely sell at the auction for somewhere between 10-20 cents on the dollar of the original purchase price. I could find no secondary market for any of these artists.”

    All of the works had been purchased from high end primary market galleries located in places like Aspen, Rome, and New York City. Many were purchased for prices above $25,000.

    As it turned out, the accuracy of my prediction surprised even me a little. With the exception of the Scholder pieces, the rest of the collection was auctioned for 16 cents on the purchase price dollar. The art “investments” which exceeded over $300,000 were sold for a total amount just above $50,000.

    So if you wish to avoid this kind of scenario, either for you or your descendants, here are some “Don’ts” and “Myths” to be aware of.

    Don’ts

    • Don’t purchase art by artists without a secondary market. (I know I’ve already said this but it bears repeating.)
    • Don’t ever let anyone tell you a piece of art is an investment.
    • Don’t buy art on cruise ships (this is one of the worst mistakes I’ve seen people make.)
    • Don’t buy art sold in tents, booths, etc., no matter how nice the weather is the day of the show.
    • Don’t buy prints, limited editions or any other form of reproductions (OK, sculptures are acceptable, as are some lithographs, etchings, and serigraphs …again, check to see if there is a secondary market for the artist’s reproductions before proceeding with purchase. This is the one “don’t” where there are certain exceptions, but you need to do your homework.)
    [​IMG]Walpi by Carl Oscar Borg. Dry point etching 7.5 x 7.5. Borg’s etchings routinely sell between $500 to $2,500. While these amounts are minuscule compared to the amounts realized for reproductions by artists like Marc Chagall they are definitely proof of exceptions to my last “don’t” rule listed above.

    Myths
    When an artist dies the value of his or her work goes up. Actually it’s the contrary. With very few exceptions, the value of an artist’s work declines, usually significantly, after his or her death. Why? It’s simple. Lack of promotion. Unless he or she has left behind a large body of work, galleries aren’t going to spend any time promoting it. And obviously a deceased artist can’t do much promotion either.
    You might find the next Picasso hard at work in a tent show in Scottsdale. The odds of this are about the same as finding the next Apple Computer in the penny stock market. In other words, it’s not going to happen.

    [​IMG]Mail Stop on the Overland Trail by Marjorie Reed. 24 x 36 Oil on canvas. Even with a long career of over sixty-five years as a freelance artist Reed sold every painting she created prior to her sudden death in 1996. While there was no posthumous promotion of her work by any galleries or dealers, over seventy of her paintings hung in the old La Casa Del Zorro resort in Borrego Springs, California for a decade after her passing. This served as permanent exhibit which helped the value of her work increase significantly after her death.

    Summary

    You said at the beginning the guy you met was once a client. What about the works you sold him?”

    Good question.

    This individual was actually my very first customer. He walked into the gallery the day before we opened and said he wanted to buy something just so he could say was our very first customer.
    And so he was. He bought two paintings by a no name artist which I had acquired when I purchased a custom furniture store on Bell Road in Phoenix. The previous owner had them on the wall just to fill up space.
    The pieces were actually fairly well done. However the artist had quit painting oil on canvas a few years before I even purchased the store. In other words there was definitely no secondary market for her work.


    $1,800 later I had my very first art sale and my first customer had two paintings by a woman who, although still living, had moved on to other interests and was no longer painting.

    [​IMG]Homestead by Ace Powell. Watercolor on paper. 6 x 8.

    This all happened before I learned any of what I just wrote. Remember, I was just getting started. If I’d have known then what I know now the pieces would not have been for sale –at least not through the gallery.

    But before I left my friend a few weeks ago I did contribute a little. I knowingly over paid for a small Ace Powell watercolor. Powell’s work is collectible and therefore has a secondary market. I purchased it for $300 and sold it the following week on ebay for $110.
    Hey, what are friends for?"

    MY COMMENT

    In art, antiques, collectables, memorabilia, Magic cards, Pokeymon cards, sports cards and collectables, comic book, toys, Action Figures, etc, etc....you MUST know what you are doing. You MUST educate yourself.

    And above all else....ONLY....buy items that have an established secondary, auction, market and proven results.

    Follow this simple rule and I dont care what you are buying.....it will keep value over time. It is doubtful that it will equal the gains in the markets.....but you will probably get your money back and even make a profit....if you know what you are doing.

    ALSO....look for an independent MENTOR.....that can help you to get started. This is not hard.....everyone that is passionate about collecting likes to talk about their area of collecting.

    ALSO....join a collector group or organization for your area of collecting. I belong to a number of groups in the Impressionistic American Art area and the Western art area. I went to a meeting in Dallas yesterday......attended by many people in Highland Park. It ranged from....literally.....a BILLIONAIRE or two.....to people that were just regular middle class. Who you are or your net worth was not relevant....we all shared the love of the same type of art.....and we were all collectors.

    If you are just buying for home DECOR......and not as a collector....you can ignore ALL the above.
     
    #19012 WXYZ, Feb 26, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2024
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  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This is the PRIMARY site that I use to start the process of researching auction sales and artist history.

    LiveAuctioneers

    liveauctioneers.com
     
    #19013 WXYZ, Feb 26, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2024
  14. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Great article W.
     
  15. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    @WXYZ

    After reading your article about Investint in Art, last night, I found particularly interesting that concept of Primary Market and Secondary Market.
    Found it interesting because is quite similar to what happens, at least here, with bonds, governamental or not.
    Bonds are issued, and they are negociated by bank syndicates (or not) on a primary market, initially on open day. After that they are traded on a secondary market. Very similar w/ art market.

    Not the proper topic of course, as a footnote, I do also invest in gov bonds, issued by European Union state members, if I have some cash available and a certain conditions are met. Usually I just use simple cryteria: beeing transacted in €, yields above 7.5%, and normally I pick longer maturities (prices are normally more atractive). Currently I have some from Italy and Hungary, that I use as "milk cows".
     
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  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I admire your courage to buy Italian bonds. :thumbsup:

    I suppose if the EU doesn't bail out Italy at every renewal payment, you can know you are doubling your money every 9 years so the payback will only span a few payments.

    Sounds like a good strategy to me.

    :cool:
     
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  17. zukodany

    zukodany Well-Known Member

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    Wow W, talk about you NOT being a PERFECT market timer (false), it appears you’re also NOT an art buyer timer (…NOT again)
    Congrats!
    Reminds me (a bit) of the time when I went to a comic con in NJ and met Herb Trimpe (co creator of Wolverine) and he signed and sketched a few commissions for me, he sadly passed away a day later.
    Sadly when popular artists and celebrities pass away a lot of the collectibles associated with them skyrocket in price. It’s much more noticeable with actual art since it’s in such a limited availability. I’d absolutely kill to own a Frazetta piece, but since his art is valued in the millions I’m currently buying other notable recognized artists work which are more “obtainable”
    Congrats!
     
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  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    That is an astute observation and comparison......rg.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    A LAZY open today......not much UMPH to the markets. Nice once in a while to simply have a dull day and a pause.

    Stocks are little changed Tuesday as traders assess fresh earnings and new data: Live updates

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/26/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks were flat Tuesday as the market rally took another breather, with investors looking ahead to key data slated for release later this week.

    The S&P 500 inched down 0.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 140 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite
    added 0.1%.

    Retail giant Macy’s advanced more than 5% after announcing it would close around 150 of its struggling stores after reporting a revenue miss in the prior quarter. Lowe’s gained 5% after posting an earnings beat. Zoom Video and Hims & Hers Health
    surged 3.7% and 39%, respectively, following earnings reports that exceeded Wall Street expectations.

    Those moves follow a losing day on Wall Street that pulled the Dow and S&P 500
    off record highs seen last week.

    It’s kind of one of those holding-pattern days,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, of Monday’s session. “You’re digesting so much of what happened last week with big earnings, and then you have big data on the horizon.”

    Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Tuesday showed that orders for long-lasting goods declined more than expected in January, with the leading factor being a large drop in demand for transportation. Investors are also watching for more economic data on housing and consumer confidence later Tuesday morning.

    Those come before January’s reading of the closely watched personal consumption expenditure price index, as well as data on personal income, slated for release on Thursday. Investors will watch these releases for future clues into the health of the economy and for insights into the path of monetary policy.

    PCE has the potential to be a big catalyst in either direction,” Mayfield said. “PCE is, by far, the biggest thing to keep an eye on.”"

    MY COMMENT

    A BIG DATA week......give me a break. NONE of this stuff is relevant to stock performance over the medium to long term....at all.

    BUT....yes....it is a slow and dull day in the markets.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    LOL....how dare you Zukodzny....calling me a market timer and a trader. In one post you just wiped out all my effort over the past 900+ pages......to show people why and how to be long term investors.
     
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