At least one thing is good. The constant daily sensational coverage of the FED is now OVER. it is in the toilet and has no power to draw clicks anymore.....so it is dumped by the media. They have moved on....even though they throw something in about the FED once in a while to test the click-bait waters.
A step in the right direction.....IF....the reality matches the talk. Google CEO tells employees Gemini AI blunder ‘unacceptable’ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/28/google-ceo-tells-employees-gemini-ai-blunder-unacceptable.html "Pichai called the issues “problematic” and said they “have offended our users and shown bias." "“I know that some of its responses have offended our users and shown bias — to be clear, that’s completely unacceptable and we got it wrong,” Pichai said. “No AI is perfect, especially at this emerging stage of the industry’s development, but we know the bar is high for us.”"
I am sitting waiting for an oil change. I know I was in the red today but I am not able to check my account till I get home. I can see on my phone that I had three stocks up today……MSFT, HD, and COST.
well that’s an apology. What does an apology have to do with the fact that Google has incompetent programmers that are using its vehicle to transport an agenda? Absolutely nothing. When Elon Musk puts out a dumb tweet he walks it back (somewhat) but it ends up being just that - a smart person making a dumb statement - that has ZERO implications to his product efficiency, his work ethic and his progress. Now if he had his PROGRAMMERS greet his millions of car users with a HEIL HITLER message on the car’s dashboard - he’d have to fire that crew. Like. ASAP. Google hasn’t done that and they have a problem with their programmers. They’ve been having this problem with their search engine algorithms for a long time. A very long time. a very very very very very. LONG TIME
I finally got a chance to check my account for today's results. I had a medium level loss. I also got beat by the SP500 by 0.43% today. Oh well...onward and upward.
FINALLY....we can get the PCE report out of the way. Than we can simply move on and forget about it. It is likely to be meaningless in the long term scheme of things. RIDICULOUS media coverage of this insignificant event.
APPLE has up to now been basically MUTE about AI. A big mistake in my view. A failure of messaging and a failure of management. WELL....now things seem to have changed. Apple CEO Tim Cook says company is ‘investing significantly’ in generative AI https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/28/apple-annual-shareholder-meeting-2024-ai-investments.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Apple CEO Tim Cook said his company “investing significantly” in artificial intelligence, and he teased a major announcement later this year. The remarks at the company’s annual shareholder meeting are one of the strongest signals that the iPhone maker is embracing the generative AI craze. Apple CEO Tim Cook said Wednesday that his company is pouring money into artificial intelligence, one of the strongest signals yet that the iPhone maker is embracing the generative AI craze that’s consumed the tech industry. The company sees “incredible breakthrough potential for generative AI, which is why we’re currently investing significantly in this area,” Cook said at Apple’s annual shareholder meeting, which was held virtually. “We believe it will unlock transformative opportunities for our users when it comes to productivity, problem-solving and more.” Apple hasn’t unveiled competing products to models like OpenAI’s GPT or Google’s Gemini, but he teased a major announcement coming this year. “Later this year, I look forward to sharing with you the ways we will break new ground in generative AI, another technology we believe can redefine the future,” Cook said. He also reframed several announced Apple products as “AI-powered,” to emphasize that the company has been working on the technology for years. In the past, the company tended to avoid the term AI in favor of machine learning. Current features that use Apple’s AI technology include the Vision Pro’s hand-tracking tool and Apple Watch’s heart rate alerts, Cook said. He also said that Apple’s chips inside its MacBooks are capable of running AI. “AI is woven into our users’ lives for all sorts of tasks, from the everyday to the essential,” Cook said. “AI allows Apple Watch to help you track your workouts, automatically detecting whether you’re taking a walk or going for a swim. It enables your iPhone to call for help if you’re in a car accident.” Apple often announces new software products and features in June at its annual developer’s conference. At the meeting, Cook was not asked about the Apple Car project, which he’d previously called the “mother of all AI projects.” Employees were told Tuesday that the program was being disbanded. In response to a general question about what products the company chooses to release, Cook said, “much of this is about focus.” The remarks came after Apple shareholders rejected a proposal that would compel the company to produce a report on AI risks. The proposal submitted by AFL-CIO Equity Index Funds was read at the meeting by Apple retail employee and union organizer Michael Forsythe and would have pushed the company to disclose ethical guidelines for AI. Apple opposed the effort, claiming such a move could disclose company secrets. At the meeting, shareholders approved Apple’s board of directors, including electing former Aerospace CEO Wanda Austin, who is joining as Al Gore and James Bell retire. Shareholders also approved the company’s auditor and executive pay. Five separate independent shareholder proposals opposed by Apple were rejected, including the AI report." MY COMMENT It is about time they said the obvious. It was DUMB that they stood by and let shareholders lose value because for some IDIOTIC reason they refused to discuss AI along with all the other big tech companies.
Speaking of DUMB big tech business BLUNDERS by management. Google loses $96B in value on Gemini fallout as CEO does damage control CEO Sundar Pichai says Google working 'around the clock' to fix AI tool's bias issues https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/google-loses-96b-value-gemini-fallout-ceo-damage-control (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Google parent company Alphabet has taken a beating in the stock market since pulling the plug on features of its artificial intelligence tool, Gemini, after users flagged its bias against White people. Data provided to FOX Business from Dow Jones shows that since Google hit pause on Gemini's image generation on Thursday, Alphabet shares have fallen 5.4%, while its market cap has fallen from $1.798 trillion to $1.702 trillion, a loss of $96.9 billion. For comparison, during the same time period, the S&P 500 has lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite has lost 0.6%. Google halted Gemini's image generation feature last week after users on social media flagged that it was creating inaccurate historical images that sometimes replaced White people with images of Black, Native American and Asian people. Google CEO Sundar Pichai told employees on Tuesday the company is working "around the clock" to fix Gemini's bias, calling the images generated by the model "completely unacceptable." The company plans to relaunch Gemini AI in the next few weeks. News website Semafor first reported the news, which was later confirmed by a Google spokesperson. Google has issued several apologies for Gemini after critics slammed the AI for creating "woke" content. In a note to employees, Pichai said the tool's responses were offensive to users. "Our teams have been working around the clock to address these issues," he wrote. "We're already seeing a substantial improvement on a wide range of prompts. ... And we'll review what happened and make sure we fix it at scale."" MY COMMENT HOW in the world does this sort of IDIOTIC BLUNDER happen at a major company? How is management not aware of this INTENTIONAL DEFECT in a product that is intertwined with their primary search business? How is it that no one has been sacrificed.....fired....yet? Etc, etc, etc. CUE the shareholder lawsuits.
IGNORING the GREAT open today. Only fools believe stock surge is just the ‘Magnificent 7’ — It’s not https://nypost.com/2024/02/25/busin...tock-surge-is-just-the-magnificent-7-its-not/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Current mythology claims “just a handful of stocks” took the S&P 500 to new highs. Supposedly AI hype driving the “Magnificent 7” Tech stocks in a 2000-era bubblicious redux. Wrong. That just grasps at straws to dismiss the bull market so few foresaw. No, this bull market is a magnificently broad celebration of normalcy’s return. That so few fathom that means it has far further to run. Let me show you. Sure, the Magnificent 7 boomed. That much is true. Alphabet (Google’s parent), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook’s parent), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla—raced like Secretariat since 2022’s bear market bottom. And all but Tesla are Tech or Tech-like with AI exposure. But every bull market has leaders and laggards. Normally, categories of stocks falling the most in a bear market bounce biggest early in the next bull. Guess what? Tech and Tech-like stocks led 2022’s decline downward. Tech’s big bounce since—which isn’t limited to the Magnificent 7—shouldn’t surprise. But it’s not just Tech. How to know that? Look where Tech isn’t The Magnificent 7 are US-based, part of America’s hugely and globally outsized 30% Tech weight. But tech sparse overseas markets are soaring with industrials, financials–even utilities…but almost no tech. In local currencies to avoid skew, markets hitting total return all-time highs this year include: Australia’s ASX 200, Britain’s FTSE 100, the MSCI Denmark, France’s CAC 40, Germany’s DAX, the MSCI India, Ireland’s ISEQ, Italy’s MIB, Japan’s TOPIX, Netherland’s AEX and Spain’s IBEX. All! Repeat, all! Just the Magnificent 7? Got it? Magnitudes vary, but this magnificent market, while not everywhere, is significantly global and far broader than fantasized. Or consider simply: In 2023, nearly 75% of the MSCI World’s more than 1,400 stocks rose. Fully 548 outperformed the World’s 23.8% return! How wiseacre pundits morph that into some seven-stock, bubble-like myth is a prime lesson in “The Pessimism of Disbelief.“ Sir John Templeton famously said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Naysayers seemingly think we fast flipped from pessimism to euphoria. Remember 2000’s bubble? Or, even 2021’s slight froth? IPOs flooded the late 1990’s markets. Myriad SPAC offering dotted 2021. This is natural: Euphoria means firm founders and owners crave gorging at the IPO dessert buffet. Where are the IPOs now? Nowhere. (As I coined decades ago, IPO really means, “It’s Probably Overpriced.) 4 This magnificent market, while not everywhere, is significantly global and far broader than fantasized. 4 IMF data show American and global 2021 growth at a red-hot 5.9% and 6.3%, respectively. We aren’t near euphoria–which all these “Magnificent 7” doubts prove. That “It’s Just” skeptical, doubt-ish talk never flourishes in bubbles. Sure didn’t in 2000. It takes a long, long time for pessimism to warm into euphoria. We may be straddling somewhere between skepticism and optimism now. We have a massively misunderstood return of normal, pre-pandemic economic growth and inflation rates. Before 2020’s lockdown-driven collapse, America routinely grew between 1.7% and 2.9% annually. The world? Roughly 3%. Then in 2020, COVID-ized, all manner of economic data went wildly whacko, initially imploding–then, bouncing back bigtime. IMF data show American and global 2021 growth at a red-hot 5.9% and 6.3%, respectively. They then reverted in 2022 to historically normal 2.1% and 3.5%, with 2023 final estimates in midst those pre-pandemic norms. It’s just a return from a hyper fast 2021—to the old normal. Maybe past growth rates feel scary. But the old normal was fantastic for stocks, fostering healthy sales and profits against nonstop griping that the economy wasn’t good enough. It was good enough to deliver history’s longest-ever bull market from 2009 – 2020. And is easily enough for this magnificent bull market to run now." MY COMMENT The title to this article says it all. It describes all the day to day opinion producers as......FOOLS. Sounds about right to me.
As I was typing this I heard someone on business TV in the background talking about the day to day short term action. His thoughts were the same as you see on here. He......a Wall Street...person said: Regarding nit-picking earnings....we are now at the point where algorithms see one negative headline and they drive the stock down 10% in one day. We are playing against computers NOT rational people. But the next day the rational people come back and the dip is over. MY COMMENT We are now used to computers and AI TRADING.....manipulating the markets based on news headlines. Everyone....especially the government...has sat back and allowed this to happen....it is legal. No one ever mentions it on Wall Street since they profit from this day to day INSANITY.
Sitting in the car at the Dr. I see that PCE came in at 2.4% on an annual basis. Perfectly normal. Unfortunately we had to endure the last three days of media BS. I should not even call them the media. The days of actual journalism are long gone.
I just saw an article on Costco. Their CFO said they are no longer seeing any inflation. I will look for it when I get home and put it up. He also said they are holding off on a membership fee increase due to customer concerns about the economy.
THIS is an example of an exceptional business and exceptional management and customer service. Costco shares news on when it will raise membership prices The warehouse club is overdue to raise the cost of entering its stores. https://www.thestreet.com/retail/costco-shares-news-on-a-membership-price-increase (BOLD is my opinion ORR what I consider important content) "Costco has generally been a pretty predictable company. That's because it wants to be transparent with its members: Protecting its renewal rates and word of mouth that leads to new membership sales remain the most important factors in its business metrics. The warehouse club wants its members to understand how it's spending money and making decisions to keep prices down. That's why the retailer (COST) has been deliberate in its efforts to build a digital business and why it has been open with its members on its margins, inflation, and other factors that affect in-store pricing. Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who will step down from his position March 15, said in the company's fiscal-first-quarter earnings call that inflation has essentially gone away. "Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said. That's a level of honesty that few companies share. Costco offers that transparency because it wants its members to understand why prices go up and down. And while few members are listening to earnings calls, the media act as a filter to make that information public. Costco's business depends on its members renewing. That's the company's most important metric and it's also an indicator where the company can see each month whether it has done something to annoy its customers, enabling it to adjust accordingly. The retailer has gone past the period where it normally raises its membership prices, and Galanti explained the company's thinking during the earnings call. Costco is past due for a membership price hike Traditionally Costco has raised its membership fees every five to six years. It has exceeded that period and continued to charge $60 for a basic Gold Star membership and $120 for an Executive membership, which comes with 2% cashback up to $1,000 per year. Costco last raised its membership prices in 2017. Galanti has said that the company has been wary of overall economic conditions and has hesitated to raise membership prices in an economy of which people remain wary. He did make clear that all the conditions are in place for the warehouse club to make the move. "I think it's just us. I mean, you know, again, if I look at the, if you ask the question, what are the variables we would look at? We would want to look at strong renewal rates, strong new signups, strong loyalty, and we have all that," he said. The retiring CFO explained why Costco has not made the move. "The question is we — we haven't needed to do it. We like providing extreme value. Certainly, while we've gone a little longer than the average increase, we feel we certainly have driven more value to the membership," he added. That does not mean it's not coming. "So, you know, I'll use my standby answer, my pat answer, it's a question of when, not if. But at this juncture, we feel pretty good about what we're doing," he shared. Costco's membership numbers remain strong Costco has moved the majority of its members in the U.S. (60%) to auto-renewal. That gives it an even bigger barrier to losing customers as anyone on auto-renewal has to choose to leave. The warehouse club has also shown that it's able to continue to attract younger customers. "I remember, 10-plus years ago, people would ask, 'How are you going after millennials?' And then, it's how we get after the next generation or whatever — the Gen Z's or whatever. At the end of the day, when we look at the different cohorts, if you just change the names, the curve seems to be about the same in terms of getting new younger members," he said. There are also clear patterns as to how members spend once they join. "They buy less, and they buy more as they get older into that 40- to 55-year-old sweet spot. And I don't know in terms of renewal rates, I think the rates are — our overall rates are improving. So, I think we're probably doing a better job there," he added." MY COMMENT The above thinking is a perfect example of GREAT MANAGEMENT at work. Very customer oriented, Very good service oriented business. They are an amazing business as a result. Very refreshing to hear a BIG COMPANY talk this way through it's management team.
If you are obsessive about the data....here you go. Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.4% in January as expected, up 2.8% from a year ago https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/pce-inflation-january-2023-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected. Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, also in-line. Personal income rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% versus the estimate for a 0.2% gain. Initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 for the week ended Feb. 24, up 13,000 from the previous period and more than the 210,000 estimate. Inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to an important gauge the Federal Reserve uses as it deliberates cutting interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected according to the Dow Jones consensus estimates. The monthly gain was just 0.1% in December and 2.9% from the year prior. Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, also as forecast, according to the numbers released Thursday by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The respective December numbers were 0.1% and 2.6%. The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% versus the estimate for a 0.2% gain. January’s price rises reflected an ongoing shift to services over goods as the economy normalizes from the Covid pandemic disruptions. Services prices increased 0.6% on the month while goods fell 0.2%; on a 12-month basis, services rose 3.9% and goods were down 0.5%. Within those categories, food prices accelerated 0.5%, offset by a 1.4% slide in energy. On a year-over-year basis, food was up 1.4% while energy fell 4.9%. Both the headline and core measures remain ahead of the Fed’s goal for 2% annual inflation, even though the core reading on an annual basis was the lowest since February 2021. While the Fed officially uses the headline measure, policymakers tend to pay more attention to core as a better indication of where long-term trends are heading. “Overall, [the report] is meeting the expectations, and some of the worst fears in the market weren’t met,” said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale. “The key is we’re not seeing the broad nature of increases that we had been more fearful of.” Wall Street reacted little to the news, with stock market futures up slightly and Treasury yields slightly lower. Futures markets where traders bet on the direction of interest rates also indicated little movement, with pricing tilted toward the Fed’s first rate cut coming in June. Thursday’s BEA report also showed that consumers are continuing to dip into savings as prices stay elevated. The personal savings rate was 3.8% on the month, slightly higher than December but off a full percentage point from where it was as recently as June 2023. In other economic news, a Labor Department report showed that companies are still reluctant to lay off workers. Initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 for the week ended Feb. 24, up 13,000 from the previous period and more than the 210,000 Dow Jones estimate but still largely in keeping with recent trends. However, continuing claims, which run a week behind, rose to just above 1.9 million, a gain of 45,000 and higher than the FactSet estimate for 1.88 million. The reports come as central bank officials mull the future of monetary policy following 11 interest rate increases totaling 5.25 percentage points. Running from March 2022 to July 2023, the hikes came as the Fed battled inflation that peaked at a more than 40-year high in mid-2022. Officials have said in recent days that they expect to begin reversing the increases at some point this year. However, the timing and extent of the policy easing is uncertain as recent data has indicated that inflation could be more stubborn than expected. “Hot January inflation data adds to uncertainty and pushes back rate cut expectations,” said David Alcaly, lead macroeconomic strategist at Lazard Asset Management. “But odds remain that this is a speed bump and that, while there may be additional short-term swings in market narrative, it will ultimately matter more how deep any rate cutting cycle goes over time than when it begins.” January’s consumer price index data raised fears of persistently high inflation, though many economists saw the rise as impacted by seasonal factors and shelter increases unlikely to persist. While the CPI is used as an input to the PCE, Fed officials focus more on the latter as it adjusts for substitutions consumers make for goods and services as prices fall. Where the CPI is viewed as a simpler price measure, the PCE is viewed as more representative of what people are actually buying." MY COMMENT I heard a former FED member this morning talking about the PCE report and why the FED ...."supposedly"...likes it as a primary indicator. He said this goes back to GREENSPAN....when the FED did some data analysis and picked the PCE as their key indicator. He also said.....no one has done a deep dive on the PCE since than. So in other words......no one in the current....modern era....has a clue if the PCE is meaningful or not. Greenspan was the FED chair in 1987 to 2006. Since that time....over 35 years.....the FED has not done a deep dive into the PCE and whether or not it is a meaningful indicator.....TYPICAL. In other words.....we are relying on ANCIENT research on the usefulness of this FED tool. What a bunch of BS......I like to think we would NEVER see this sort of "stuff" in private business.
No I dont care about the PCE....although.....I do strongly believe that what it showed today is simply.....NORMAL HEALTHY INFLATION levels. Lets hope the markets can hang on till the close with the current gains. I guess it will depend on if there is some headline or obscure news content.......that the AI TRADING PROGRAMS latch onto.......and use to KILL the markets today for their short term profits.
For anyone that does or is considering an IRA...either Traditional or Roth....some good info here. 20 IRA Mistakes to Avoid From contributions to conversions to distributions, don’t fall into these traps. https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/20-ira-mistakes-avoid
Looking good for what I believe will be....two to four....rate CUTS this year by the FED. I doubt that the first one will happen in March. Fed's preferred inflation gauge logs lowest annual rise since March 2021 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...t-annual-rise-since-march-2021-133219019.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Fed's preferred inflation gauge logged its lowest annual increase since March 2021 in January, matching Wall Street forecasts, while monthly prices rose at the fastest rate in a year. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.8% over the prior year in January, the slowest annual increase since a 2.2% increase in March 2021. Compared to the prior month, core PCE rose 0.4%, the most since January 2023 and an increase from the 0.1% increase seen in December. The monthly increase marked a stark shift in the inflation data. Prior to Thursday's release, the six-month annualized rate of price increases had been below the Fed's 2% goal for two consecutive months. After the January data, the six-month annualized PCE price increase is 2.5%. "Fed officials have signaled they do not need better news on inflation to cut rates, just continued good news," Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients. "With the trend in inflation still downward, gradual rate cuts this year are still on the table." Headline PCE, which includes all categories, logged a 2.4% increase over last year, a slowdown from last month's 2.6% print. The print comes at a crucial time in the inflation story after another reading on price increases, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), recently showed prices grew faster than expected in the month of January. The hotter-than-expected report sent stocks lower and prompted investors to shift their interest rate cut expectations. Markets are now pricing in three interest rate cuts for 2024, in line with the Fed's most recent forecast and down from a former consensus of six cuts seen back in December, per Bloomberg data. Before Thursday's report, investors had placed a 58% chance on the first Fed interest rate cut coming in June. Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients on Thursday that the surge in monthly PCE was "largely expected" after other readings on inflation showed a similar trend earlier in January. "Although that surge has ruled out an early Fed rate cut, particularly in an environment where first-quarter GDP growth appears to be tracking at 2.5% to 3.0%, we don’t think it changes the broader picture," Ashworth said. "There is still plenty of disinflation coming this year, which means that the annual rate of core PCE inflation will be close to the 2% target by mid-year." The most recent minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed most officials were concerned about the risks of "moving too quickly" when lowering interest rates. Largely, officials have expressed in recent commentary they want "greater confidence" on inflation's path downward." MY COMMENT I am calling for two to four rate cuts this year. This will definately be good news for the long term and for the future of the BULL MARKET.
The latest information on the current GREAT earnings season. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs...k/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_030124.pdf (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) AS OF 2-29-2024 "Key Metrics Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2023 (with 97% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 73% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. Earnings Growth: For Q4 2023, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 4.0%. If 4.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second-straight quarter that the index has reported earnings growth. Earnings Guidance: For Q1 2024, 71 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 30 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.4. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.0) and above the 10-year average (17.7)." SEE ARTICLE.....for full discussion. We are KICKING ASS.....on earnings.......and.....on the usual suspects that constantly push for poor earnings results every quarter (most of the experts, the professionals, and the media).
Nice to see a large-medium GAIN in my account stocks today. Plus a bonus.......beat on the SP500 by 0.63%. Looking good to hit the last day of the week hard tomorrow and hopefully finish the week with a net gain. I had six of eight stocks in the GREEN today. the RED were....COST, and AAPL.
