Looks like MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, and AAPL are refusing to join the fun today. BUMMER. BUT.....I am probably still positive today with my COST, HD, NVDA, PLTR, and SMCI. I will find out in an hour or two since I have to go to the grocery store and will miss the close today. Tomorrow.....COSTCO reports earnings after the close. Looking forward to seeing the numbers.....some of the monthly numbers up to now......have been good. I also saw that their membership numbers are way up. So I am expecting very good earnings and very good guidance.
EMMETTTTTTTTTTT.....WHEREEEEE AREEEEEE YOUUUUUUUUUU. STELLAAAAAAAA......? That should lure him out.....nothing like "A Streetcar Named Desire" to lure out an actor.
The last i heard from him, he mentioned he found a great deal on foam noses and size 28 oxfords in Barstow. That was quite a while ago.
I had a nice large gain today. Five stocks in the GREEN.......PLTR, NVDA, SMCI, COST and HD. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.94%. COST earnings tomorrow. Two days left to close out the week in style......LETS DO IT.....or if you prefer.....JUST DO IT.
I like this little article. Why You’re Scared of Investing (and how to overcome it) https://dariusforoux.com/scared-of-investing/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "My heart is racing. My hands are so wet from my sweat that I can’t even get a good grip on the computer mouse. After hearing many stories from people who lost money, I feared investing. But I still to get in on the game. I wanted to get rich badly. But my stomach felt like it was inside out. I collected all the courage inside me. Then, I finally did it. Boom! I bought my first stocks. This was in 2007, and I STILL remember how I felt. That’s how scary investing is. Over the years, I started to control my emotions to a degree that I don’t even feel the slightest itch when I invest my money. That’s because I found ways to overcome my fear of investing. What follows is a list of 5 common reasons most people fear investing and a practical way of overcoming the fear. 1. Fear of losing money The fear of losing money is a primal instinct, deeply ingrained in our psyche. It’s tied to our survival instincts. After all, for much of human history, losing resources could mean life or death. This is reflected in the concept of loss aversion:investing isn’t gambling. It’s about making calculated decisions based on research and analysis. Second, diversify your portfolio. As the saying goes, don’t put all your eggs in one basket when you start. While many successful investors got rich by concentrating on their portfolios, I don’t think it’s wise to start picking individual stocks. This is also why many people get scared of investing. You’re much better off buying a broad index like the S&P 500 when you start. You can concentrate on your individual investments later. 2. Lack of knowledge Investing can seem intimidating if you don’t understand how it works. This fear stems from the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. This leads to a paradox: the less you know about investing, the more confident you might feel, leading to risky decisions. But as you learn more, you realize how much you don’t know, which can lead to fear and hesitation. Overcoming it: Knowledge is power. Start by educating yourself about the basics of investing. Read books, listen to podcasts, take online courses. As legendary investor Warren Buffett said: ”Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” The more you understand investing, the more confident you’ll become. Just remember you also don’t need to have a PhD in Finance to be a good investor. Basic knowledge is enough. 3. Fear of falling behind The fear of falling behind, also known as FOMO (fear of missing out), often prevents people from building wealth in the stock market. Humans seem to be naturally competitive. Social media makes this even more visible, as people feel unsatisfied when they watch other folks live a “better” life. We tend to define our worth based on how we stack up against others. This behavior sometimes translates to our investing strategy. Which leads to risky behavior, such as jumping on an investment bandwagon without doing your research. Overcoming it: Remember that investing is a long-term game, not a get-rich-quick scheme. As Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, said: ”The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” Focus on your financial goals and stick to your investment plan, regardless of what others are doing. 4. Reacting to market volatility Market volatility can be scary. When the market takes a downturn, our natural instinct is to panic and sell. This reaction is linked to the fight-or-flight response. I experienced that feeling when I lost around 60% of the money I first invested in the stock market. Overcoming it: It’s crucial to stay calm and stick to your long-term investment plan during market volatility. The economist Paul Samuelson said it well: ”Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” What do you do when you paint your walls? You leave it alone and simply get on with your life. Do the same with your investments. 5. Fear of commitment Investing often means locking away your money for a significant period, which can feel daunting. There is always the fear of uncertainty. What if the market suddenly crashes and you need to use that money after all? What if you suddenly need to take a one-month vacation, but don’t have the money for it? These fears keep many people scared of investing. When you get down to it, there are two main goals that every investor aims for: Liquidity and growth. Liquidity is about how easily you can turn an investment into cash without losing its value. It’s important because having liquid assets means you can quickly access funds for emergencies or unexpected expenses. On the flip side, growth is all about increasing value over time. This is crucial for building wealth and reaching financial goals like retirement or buying a house. But when it comes to investing, you can’t have total liquidity and maximum growth simultaneously; there’s always a trade-off. The key is finding the right balance between the two. Overcoming it: Maintain an emergency fund that covers 3-6 months of living expenses. This will give you the peace of mind to invest your other funds without worrying about accessing them in an emergency. Embrace the future: Conquer your fears today Always remember this as you’re investing: The regret of not taking action today could be far greater than any fear you’re experiencing now. Think about that whenever you find yourself scared of investing. Imagine yourself 10, 20, or even 30 years from now. You look back on your life and realize you let fear dictate your financial decisions. You missed out on opportunities to grow your wealth, to secure your future, to provide for your loved ones. That regret can be a heavy burden to bear. We’re more likely to regret the things we didn’t do than the things we did. And when it comes to investing, the cost of inaction can be high. Yes, there will be risks. There is always risk in every part of life. But as long as you invest sustainably and consistently, you will grow your wealth in the long term. As American entrepreneur and motivational speaker, Jim Rohn, said: “We must all suffer one of two things: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret.” Choose wisely." MY COMMENTS Some simple lessons here for all of us. A good review for those of us that are experienced......and....a good primer for those that are considering starting out. One thing is sure.......You have to take that first step. I suggest that until you have at least $100,000....you simply invest in an SP500 Index Fund or ETF. (your homework, research what an ETF is)(after you research what an SP500 Index fund is) Investing for the long term is very simple. just put in the same amount of money each month and let it run....forever. In an SP500 Index fund you will own ALL the big companies that you are hearing about every day. Simple and easy.
Such a euphoric time to be invested in the stock market. Remember these past 12-14 months next time a storm comes around and pisses 10-30% of your gains. Onwards and upwards
You ll know what i think about all the "experts" that are....ALWAYS.....wrong about earnings and most everything else to do with investing. The Dumber Side of Smart People https://collabfund.com/blog/the-dumber-side-of-smart-people/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what i consider important content) "Most people will die after three days without water. But drinking too much can be equally dangerous – water intoxication is deadly, and during rigorous training about a dozen soldiers per year are hospitalized for drinking too much water. Mae West said, “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” That might be true for some things – health, happiness, golden retrievers, maybe. But in so many cases the thing that helps you can be taken to a dangerous level. And since it’s a “good thing,” not an obvious threat, its danger creeps into your life unnoticed. Take intelligence. I’m talking about book intelligence, the kind that shows up in SAT scores and GPAs. How could someone possibly be too intelligent? How do you get to a point where you realize you could have been more successful if you had been a little dumber? A few big ways: 1. Very smart people can fool themselves with elaborate stories about why something happened. Comedian Robin Williams was a terrible student. During a macroeconomic class at College of Marin, Williams’ final paper contained a single sentence to his professor: “I really don’t know, sir.” He failed the test, but it’s the right answer to most economic problems. There is so much that we not only don’t know, but can’t know, about why complex systems like the stock market and economy behave the way they do, because human emotions and shifting social preferences can’t be distilled down to a formula. Humility is a superpower that prevents overconfidence. But being very smart makes it harder to harness that humility. You want to put your big brain to work, and your mental horsepower allows you to create complex stories and elaborate models of cause and effect. Worse, if you believe that complexity equals intelligence and intelligence equals accuracy, you favor the explanation that strains your brain the most. If asked, “Why did the stock market fall 0.23% last week?” an average person will shrug their shoulders and walk away. A very smart person will show you their yield-curve model and valuation analysis and tell you whether the performance will continue. Who do you think is more likely to be stricken by overconfidence? I’ve come to believe that part of the reason professional money managers produce such lousy returns is because the industry attracts such intelligent people. They’re too smart for their own good. There’s a fine line between intellectual rigor and believing your own bullshit, and smart people are at more risk than ordinary folks. 2. Being very smart makes it harder to listen to people who are less credentialed than you, even when they might have the right answer. Being smart is almost a tribe in itself, and like all tribal affiliations it becomes hard to view outsiders as equals. The amount of time, money, and stress it takes to get a degree, or become senior vice president, or win an award, can lead you to believe that others who lack those accomplishments cannot offer valuable insight. Doing so makes you question why you put so much effort into your credentials to begin with. It’s amazing what happens when you become open to the best ideas, rather than the most credentialed voices. One of the funniest scenes from Seinfeld is the episode Jerry at the Dentist. Before putting the nitrous oxide mask on his patient, the dentist inhales the gas himself and declares, “Yep, it’s good.” The whole scene was an accident. Bryan Cranston, who plays the dentist, later revealed where the joke came from: As we’re rehearsing I hear someone say, “Hey, you know what would be funny?” And I look around the set and I see a [stagehand] adjusting a light. And he goes, “It’d be funny if before you gave it to Jerry, you took a hit yourself.” And I went, “Oh my god, that is funny.” Cranston’s takeaway is great: I think a very smart CEO of any company, big or small, has a policy where they listen to every suggestion and idea — best idea wins. That’s how it should be. Best idea wins. And you never know where it’s gonna come from. You can see how this could become dangerous in something like medicine or nuclear physics, where the cost of ignorance is extreme – a brain surgeon shouldn’t ask for tips offered by the janitor. But in many industries it’s not appreciated enough. I often wonder how many tens of billions of dollars have been paid to management consultants to solve problems that low-wage line workers had solutions for, only because a guy in a suit has a hard time taking a guy with dirty fingernails seriously. 3. Having an intellectual reputation to maintain can make it difficult to change your mind when you need to. I saw an amazing stat yesterday. LeBron James has now scored 40,000 points in the NBA, and each 10,000-point increment was earned in almost the exact same number of games: 10K in 368 games 10K to 20K in 358 games 20K to 30K in 381 games 30K to 40K in 368 games Consistency. It’s astounding when you see it, the hallmark of a true talent. But there’s a danger in some fields when a smart person becomes known for their consistency in doing something, and then the world evolves away from that thing, but the person is desperate to hold onto the perceived consistency of their talent. If a smart person becomes known as, “The guy who can forecast the oil market.” Or, “The woman who can predict the next election,” you run the risk that you were only an expert on a version of the world that no longer exists. If the world evolves, you should probably either find a new area to apply your intelligence, or alter your confidence, or at least change the way you work and the product you deliver. But if the rest of the world craves your consistency, you can’t. They want you to keep doing the same thing over and over. And you want that too, because you want to guard your intellectual reputation. You marketed yourself as an expert in a specific thing, so it’s hard to evolve into something else. If you become famous for your smart ideas, but those ideas turn out to be either wrong or outdated, it’s extremely difficult to move on. The result is a lot of very smart people clinging to very bad ideas. A hedge fund manager who had a moment of brilliance and made a fortune in the 1990s might struggle to adapt, because their ego and their investors expect them to repeat whatever worked last time. A garbageman doesn’t face that risk. They are much more attuned to the current reality, without the intellectual baggage of past accomplishments. The biggest risk to an evolving system is that you become bogged down by experts from a world that no longer exists. The more evolution you have, the more you should expect that expertise has a shelf life. And those most susceptible to that risk are the people you’d least suspect: The smartest and most intelligent, who at one point flashed their brilliance but struggled to admit that it can’t be repeated." MY COMMENT Unfortunately many of the of called "experts" the "smart people"......quit being smart about at the end of High School or college. they are book smart but out in the real world...they have no common sense and are in reality dumb as a post. They got their degree and credentials and than got a high power government job or a consulting job as an "expert". BUT......they have no real ability to predict or forecast anything. They are ELITE....empty suits. That is why I like people that are or have been business owners or actual business managers. If they have a proven record of success....they probably know what they are doing. They have common sense....they know how to manage.....and they know how to visualize far out into the future.
WOW.....a really HOT open in the old markets today. All the big averages are UP nicely. The Ten Year is down. Gold is way up over the past month or two.....glad I am not buying any with the current price......I believe an all time high.
I like this little article. 2024 will be AI’s breakout year https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/2024-will-be-ais-breakout-year1/oac (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) “Don’t be suboptimal.” I had a great dinner in London recently with Julien Bittel. He’s the head of research at Global Macro Investor, a high-end investment research service. The topic of conversation was “don’t be suboptimal”—as in choose the best possible way to play an investment theme, instead of the second or third best. It was okay to be suboptimal last year when most stocks were up. And when groups of stocks (like artificial intelligence) went up in tandem. This year is different. Leaders are separating themselves from the pack. Nvidia (NVDA)—up 47% this year—continues to make new highs, as do other AI leaders I’ve recommended in my flagship newsletter, Disruption Investor. Meanwhile, other AI “contenders” like C3.ai (AI) are lagging behind (+4%). The same trend is playing out in cybersecurity and semiconductors. Deciding you want to invest in cybersecurity and simply buying the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is suboptimal. Instead, you want to do the hard work to find and invest in the best cyber businesses. That’s what we did in Disruption Investor. As you can see, owning a great individual cyber business vs. the CIBR ETF makes a big difference: 2024 will be AI’s breakout year. I know what you’re thinking... “Stephen, was 2023 not AI’s coming-out party? Nvidia was the top-performing S&P 500 stock and ChatGPT was EVERYWHERE!” From an investing perspective, there was still a lot of skepticism toward AI last year. Did you know Nvidia’s stock got cheaper in 2023? Despite a 239% increase in its stock price—and becoming the poster child for AI—its price-to-earnings ratio fell last year. Two things will wash away the AI skepticism this year: #1...The largest infrastructure buildout ever is underway. We’re slap-bang in the middle of the great AI infrastructure buildout. Microsoft (MSFT) alone plans to spend $50 billion expanding its AI data centers next year… and every year after that for the foreseeable future. Facebook (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently announced, “By the end of this year, we’re going to have around 350,000 Nvidia H100s.” Given these chips cost $30,000 apiece, that’s $10 billion in sales from just one customer. Microsoft… Facebook… Amazon (AMZN)… and Google (GOOG) are expected to spend a combined $175 billion on capital expenditures this year alone, with a big chunk of that going toward AI: This is a firehose of money. We ran the numbers and found this is one of the largest—if not the largest—infrastructure buildouts in history. You must own the AI infrastructure companies capturing this spending. #2...Big breakthroughs will drive more demand. Until recently, AI was confined to the bowels of university research labs. It was something academics in lab coats played around with, not something ordinary folks touched. ChatGPT changed that when it attracted 100 million users in two months. Now, you can overhear people talking about it on the subway. But there won’t be one AI to rule them all. There will be millions of AIs all doing different things. Just look at what’s happening in America’s most broken industry: healthcare. A team of MIT and Harvard researchers built an AI model from GPT-4 to discover a new class of antibiotics. The first batch they tested was effective against antibiotic-resistant “superbugs.” Given antibiotic resistance kills over 1 million people each year, this is a big deal. And a drug discovery startup incubated by Google aims to halve the time it takes to find new medicines. It can take up to 15 years to get a new drug approved and on pharmacy shelves. Doing so costs anywhere from a few hundred million dollars up to several billion dollars. If AI can cut that by even 20%, it’s worth $500 billion in savings. The startup just inked deals with two of the world’s largest drug companies: Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novartis (NVS). AI has the potential to extend life expectancy. There’s a chance we’ll all be centenarians thanks to its breakthroughs. Today’s dose of optimism: Could you swim 9 miles for your kids? Being a dad is tough. Kids swallow up our time. They zap our energy and often leave us with nothing but a few pennies in our pockets. But what they take, they pay us back in spades. Being a dad lights a burning fire inside me to succeed. Am I going to sit around all day when I have two mouths to feed? Hell no. Other people are relying on me; I HAVE TO make it. I heard an incredible story recently about a dad who swam for 16 hours to get back to shore after falling overboard. Rob Konrad fell off his boat, which then sped away from him, nine miles out to sea. After swimming for 16 hours in the open water he eventually made it back to dry land. What kept Konrad going? “I have two beautiful daughters; I was hitting that shore." My fellow dads, use that energy from your kids to do something great. You can’t let them down, they’re relying on you." MY COMMENT I like this "sub-optimal content" and discussion. This is basically what I try to do in my portfolio and especially my individual stocks.......that is why I emphasize the criteria that I have posted many times on here.....BIG CAP, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE DOMINANCE, AMERICAN, etc, etc, etc. I cant think of any better way to optimize returns than owning the cream of the crop...the best of the best. Combine this with a long term focus and you will do well....it is that simple. of course to achieve this sort of investing it requires that you avoid....GREED and ENVY at all costs.
The KILLER market so far today. Stocks gain for a second day on easing inflation hopes, Nvidia leads Nasdaq higher https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose Thursday, as hope over easing inflation and gains in tech helped Wall Street claw back more of this week’s losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 198 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.7%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.6%. Investor optimism was boosted after the European Central Bank lowered forecasts for annual inflation and growth, while holding key interest rates steady on Thursday. That can be taken as a positive signal on the international inflation front. The ECB’s announcement comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on Wednesday that he expects interest rates to come down this year, while noting that the U.S. central bank was not immediately ready to begin cutting. Powell will speak before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, the second of his two Capitol Hill appearances this week. In corporate news, Victoria’s Secret plunged 29% after posting mixed quarterly results and issuing disappointing guidance. On the other hand, U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordis popped 9% on the back of positive trial results for an obesity treatment. Thursday’s gains add to Wednesday’s bounce, which marked the first winning day of the week for any of the three major averages. Despite the tough start to the week, the S&P 500 now flickered around its flatline. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite are still down 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively, on the week. The technology-heavy Nasdaq was helped by a gain of more than 2% in Nvidia, the artificial intelligence darling whose shares have climbed more than 10% this week. Though tech performed well, Apple oscillated around flat in Thursday morning trading, flirting with its seventh straight losing session. Shares of New York Community Bancorp rose 14% in volatile trading Thursday morning. The stock tumbled more than 40% during Wednesday’s session, but went on to finish with a 7.5% gain after announcing a $1 billion capital raise. Investors are also awaiting Friday’s U.S. jobs report for insights into the state of the labor market, which has shown resilience despite higher interest rates." MY COMMENT NOTHING....new above, a good thing for the markets. We are going to simply see strength based on the basic markets.....not....news headlines. with the open today wee now have a good.....possibility....of a strong day today and tomorrow. We have a good shot at another positive close to the week.
I am looking forward to the COSTCO earnings after the close today. But the stock has had an epic run up in anticipation of earnings....so they are priced to perfection. No matter how good they are....we stand a chance of the typical drop in the stock tomorrow.....who cares.
A scorching HOT day for all my stocks at the moment....except for AAPL. Typical for poor AAPL....If I had the money I would probably be adding shares of AAPL on some set buying schedule over the next couple of months. Looks like a good time to get in to me. BUT....I have a very long term focus.
Speaking of HOT.....NVDA. Up by over $32 at the moment, today. I see a lot of articles on......"Is it too late to buy NVIDIA" or....."should I buy NVIDIA now". The last shares of NVDA that I bought in any account were purchased in one of my kids accounts on February 12, 2024. Just 3.5 weeks ago. Those shares......UP.....by 26%. I bought those shares in their IRA account.....20 shares. That gain in just over three weeks.....INSANE. BUT.....what can I say....that is just how the markets are rewarding certain companies at this moment. At some point there will be a pull back or a correction in this stock. BUT.....the medium to long term future is very bright.
Our latest bronze sculpture arrived on Tuesday. It is spectacular and exceeds what we expected. That is always a good thing. What was even more amazing was the CRATE it was shipped in. All wood....strong as an ox.... and custom made for the sculpture. It is a work of art itself. It is amazing what a good crate builder can do.
I LOVE the markets today. No outside factors weighing on the markets.....NOTHING going on in the news or otherwise. A "PURE" market driven day. A rarity lately over the past few years. We are seeing the markets as they really are today....and....that means STRENGTH. The bull market is very much alive and well. I am HAPPY on days like this where I can not find anything to post in the way of news or articles.
Crazy days indeed. I’m up…. 2.57% today. I’ll have to wait till the days end to see how much im up year to date… likely around 22-23% Poor apple indeed, what a great company to own, just a matter of time before they enter a bull run. Hope they won’t miss an opportunity here with all things AI. Kinda reminds me of when Amazon waited till the fed started to hike in ‘22 AND THEN they split their stock. By that time the market was a bloodbath and nobody even cared about their split. Had they done it during the post covid dip days they could’ve been up significantly. Speaking of stock split… hmmm I wonder if NVDA….. could it?….. Will it???
A BIG and FAT gain for me today in my stocks. I had only two stocks down today....AAPL of course and HD. I beat the SP500 by 1.46% today.
