A little music update. I turned down another long term playing opportunity this week. That makes three now over the past six months. At my age, and after what I have been able to do over my lifetime, I am simply being very picky. If the material and line up of instruments is not what I prefer I am not willing to accept something just to be playing. Being "old"....I want to play the type of material that I favor.
What are your "go to" websites when you're investigating company financials. I think there is like 90% garbage on the financial media websites, totally incompetent.
LOL....an old fashioned FED FEAR FEST today. The economy is not the markets and the FED in reality has absolutely NO ability to control the economy. BUT....the FED can turn the markets on a dime....with the modern AI TRADING PROGRAMS searching on the micro-second for any key word or news item to trade. We had POWELL....the good cop....come out and BS the markets a day ago and today....we have the FED HIT-MEN come out and do the dirty work. Today had nothing to do with oil....it has already been spiking before the market open today. This was all the FED and the micro-second traders cleaning up......and manipulating the markets legally with their AI trading.
I was ALL in the red today....nine stocks. A nice loss for me and a loss to the SP500 by 0.79%. At least the cause was meaningless to me as an investor. Simply IDIOCY and trading.
The recent market action will cause that SIX TRILLION dollars to continue to cower on the sidelines. In reality there are some good discounts out there right now for that money. BUT....anyone siting on the sidelines after the past year and a half is pretty chicken to get back into stocks. Any money that is stock market money and has not come back in by now is going to sit for a long, long, time. I suspect that a good chunk of that money is siting in CD's or other safe instruments locked in at 4-6% for at least a year or two. Crunch time will be when it all expires and the owner has to decide what to do.
WELL......an OK open considering the craziness yesterday. Lets see if the markets can have a normal day without some MORON shooting them in the foot again. On this topic and the FUTURE of investing......for all of investing history the markets have established a record of being positive any one year about 70% of the time. This is based on earnings and business fundamentals. This is the basis for long term investing. Now consider the future of the markets....even the long term markets. If we allow the AI PROGRAM TRADING to continue to evolve and get further out of control.....ALL....market activity will be controlled and manipulated by short term trading. Nothing will matter. Earnings will not matter, fundamentals will not matter. All that will matter is the micro-second computer trading of headlines, news, rumor, and opinion in the media. It is not a question of "if" this is going to happen....it will happen gradually over time.....this is how we seem to be going. Once we get to this point even long term investing will die. At that point the markets will simply be one HUGE micro-second AI voting system based on split second events, speculation, fear, drama, opinion, etc, etc, etc. Once this takes hold.....it has already started......it will only take a few generations for no one to be left alive that has any idea of how investing used to work. At that point being a public company and being constantly jerked around minute by minute and hour by hour and day by day.....by the computer traders will be completely unattractive. I suspect some form of private ownership or government ownership of ALL business will replace the current public ownership model. The bottom line when.....or if.....this stuff happens......investing as a form of wealth creation available to the general public will be over. People are not stupid....they are not going to invest in a rigged game. At that point the ability of the average......"little person".....to rise up and improve their status will simply be over. The answer.....AI PROGRAM TRADING.....which moves in concert across the big trading platforms and banks.....needs to be heavily regulated or even eliminated. Considering the power and resources and connections of the ELITES that control these systems and government......the odds of this happening are close to ZERO.
Fortunately for me......I will not live long enough to see the destruction and death of the current system of investing. My grandchildren will. BUT.....for now....we still have a market based on "some" reality....at least over the long term. So I will continue to post.....LOL. A good open today.....here is the economic news of the day.....which really does not matter. US economy adds 303,000 jobs, unemployment falls to 3.8% in March as labor market continues to impress https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...or-market-continues-to-impress-123226886.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US economy added more jobs than expected in March while the unemployment rate ticked lower, underscoring signs the labor market remains on stronger footing than many economists had predicted. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 303,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, significantly more than the 214,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% from 3.9% in February. Meanwhile, wages, considered an important metric for inflation pressures, increased 4.1% year-over-year, their lowest annual gain since June 2021. On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.3%, an increase from the previous month's 0.2% gain. The report comes as investors watch for signs of cooling in the labor market while hoping foroverall strength to support Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's current base case for three interest rate cuts later this year. After two months of strong job gains, Powell referred to the labor market as "strong but rebalancing" in a speech at Stanford University on Thursday. A healthy job market has been considered key to the economy avoiding recession while the Fed keeps rates restrictive to help fight inflation. “The strong and broad-based pace of job creation in March topped all estimates and underscores the Fed will be in no hurry to start cutting interest rates,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a note to clients. “However, as Chairman Powell has indicated, the robust increase in employment will not preclude an easing of monetary policy since in part it reflects an increase in labor supply." To Bostjancic's point, the labor force participation rate picked up to 62.7% from 62.5% previously, and the average weekly hours worked ticked up from 34.3 to 34.4. The largest jobs increases in Friday's report were seen in healthcare which added 72,000 jobs in March. Meanwhile, government employment added 71,000 jobs. Construction added 39,000 jobs, doubling its average monthly gain over the last 12 months. Broadly, other data out this week has reflected a still-resilient labor market. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released Tuesday, showed both job openings and hires ticked up slightly in February. Meanwhile, the latest data on private employment from ADP showed 185,000 private jobs were added in March, above the 155,000 seen in February. "The February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report is consistent with a labor market that is still quite healthy," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. The recent labor market data paints a picture of a strong economy that, for now, appears to be able to withstand higher interest rates while the Fed waits for inflation to fall further. Investors shifted their bets on when the Fed will cut slightly following the report. Investors are now pricing in a 55% chance the Fed cuts in June, down from a 60% chance a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool. "The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until the second half of this year," Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients." MY COMMENT First......all this data continues to be suspect. It is constantly adjusted a month or two down the road. BUT....I do believe in general that the economy is really HUMMING ALONG. This is a good thing. Business is doing well, employment is up, the economy is strong and booming. In any world that operates based on reality....this would be a good thing. BUT not in our world. The FED is focused on a fantasy inflation target that has ZERO historical basis and is not based on anything. The 2% goal is FANTASY and has no basis in any fact or data. Right now.....we are in the sweet spot for historic inflation in the USA....between 3% to 4%....for a booming and growing economy. Of course we live in a world where good is bad.....and bad is good. Things are controlled by "experts" using unsupported goals. But, in fact, the odds that any FED can actually control the economy or anything else is BALONEY.
To continue.......the headlines and articles I am seeing so far today are TYPICAL. I dont know if people are even reading this CRAP. I am not. Totally irrelevant to actual investing....in my opinion. This is the current state of the financial media. For example: A Once-in-a-Decade Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Stock to Buy Now -- No, Not Nvidia Billionaire David Tepper Sold Nvidia and Alphabet Shares Hand Over Fist Last Quarter. Here Are the "Magnificent Seven" Stock A multi-trillion-dollar bull market is coming for assets that benefit from higher inflation, top macro strategist says Forget Apple: Warren Buffett Has Spent Twice as Much Buying Shares of This Beloved Stock Since 2018 Goldman Sachs Predicts Over 120% Rally for These 2 ‘Strong Buy’ Stocks 73 Million AT&T Users' Data Leaked As Hacker Said, 'I Don't Care If They Don't Admit. I'm Just Selling' Auctioned At Starting Price Of NY state is demanding more information on Trump's $175 million appeal bond in civil fraud case Don't Pay $179/Year for Amazon Prime - Use This Trick...
How I miss the old days of the "Wall Street Journal" and "Investors Business Daily" being the financial papers that contained all the daily news. BUT....we have to live and invest in the world we are given. So I do. As long as I can make money in the markets over and above any other type of vehicle, I will be a long term investor. SO..... I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual. LETS GET OUT THERE AND MAKE SOME MONEY TODAY.
I certainly am making some money so far today. ALL nine stocks in the GREEN right now. Too bad the markets do not close at 9:45.
LOOKING GOOD....as the markets mature nicely into the day. After the action so far this week we are past due for an UP day today. The key will be avoiding some afternoon talk by the FED or other BS story-line that springs up out of nowhere and tanks the market.
This is a BIG story for owners of TSLA. Tesla scraps low-cost car plans amid fierce Chinese EV competition: Reuters https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/tes...id-fierce-chinese-ev-competition-reuters.html This has been a horrible year for TSLA. Time for them to FOCUS on their key products and consolidate their business. True gut check time for shareholders......with the stock down by 33% YTD and 36% over the past six months. I consider it a positive that the LOSS is only 10.5% over the past year. If you are a real speculator this might be a good buy now and over the next 2-4 months. The big danger.....trying to catch a falling knife. I do not own this stock and have NO plans to do so. The company and ELON are under constant political and personal attack right now....in addition to the short to medium term business issues.
I do agree with this view. I believe it is clear that there will be two or three rate cuts this year. Trying to guess when is simply a waste of time and irrelevant to long term investors. Fed’s Kashkari raises prospect of zero rate cuts — but Goldman says that would be ‘very surprising’ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/top...s-prospect-of-zero-fed-rate-cuts-in-2024.html "Key Points Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said he still expects three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. His comments came shortly after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari became the latest high-profile official to float the possibility of zero rate reductions in 2024 if inflation remained sticky. “I would be quite surprised if we didn’t get rate cuts this year. Quite surprised,” Hatzius told CNBC on Friday."
This is one of the absolutely LAST people in the investing world that I pay any attention to. A media hound that seems to never get any respect or attention...in my opinion. No relevance at all to me......but.....he is spot on with these comments. Economist El-Erian says the Fed has turned into a play-by-play commentator https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/el-...s-turned-into-a-play-by-play-commentator.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The U.S. Federal Reserve has become too data dependent and has lost sight of its overall strategy, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Friday. “Rather than be strategic, this Fed is overly data dependent, and has turned into a play-by-play commentator,” El-Erian told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Spring Forum in Italy. El-Erian’s comments follow a recent chorus of Fed policymakers who have begun speaking conservatively about rate cuts. The U.S. Federal Reserve has become too data dependent and has lost sight of its overall strategy, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said Friday. The economist told CNBC that a longer-term, more strategic outlook could see policymakers settle on a new inflation target of closer to 3%. “Rather than be strategic, this Fed is overly data dependent, and has turned into a play-by-play commentator,” El-Erian told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Spring Forum in Italy. “That’s not the role of the Fed,” he continued. “The Fed should be strategic, the Fed should provide a strategic anchor, a stabilizer.” “The mistake that they may make is they’ll end up this time being too tight,” he said. The Federal Reserve did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment. El-Erian’s comments follow a recent chorus of Fed policymakers who have begun speaking conservatively about rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the bank would need further evidence to assess the current state of inflation, casting doubt on expectations for a June interest rate cut. A day later, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wondered if the central bank should cut rates at all if inflation remained sticky, causing markets to tumble. El-Erian said the comments were an example of the Fed “overreacting to data,” and said that it should take a more holistic view of the economy. However, he noted that policymakers’ hawkish approach could be an indication that they are considering the possibility of a new normal inflation target. “The way you discuss it politely is you don’t say ‘let’s change the inflation target,’ you say ‘let’s get to 2% somewhere in the future. Let’s have a trajectory,’” El-Erian said. “It may well prove that the economy is stable nearer to 3%. I don’t think that’s going to de-anchor inflation expectations,” he added. In an effort to drag inflation back down toward its target, the Fed has hiked interest rates 11 times in total over the last few years to a target range of 5.25%-5.5% — the highest level for more than 22 years. The Fed’s goal has proven especially challenging given the high volumes of U.S. banking reserves at present, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute. In past monetary tightening cycles, central banks have squeezed bank reserves as an additional means of lowering inflation. But with current U.S. reserves around 1,700 larger than before the 2008 Lehman crisis, according to Koo, that path was unviable. “If you tried to tighten with this tool, you have to remove the $3.2 trillion first, before you will have any grip on the situation. And of course, you cannot do that overnight,” Koo said at the same event Thursday. “So much is on interest rates, and interest rates will have to go much higher to get the same effect it did have before excess reserves were at this magnitude,” he added." MY COMMENT I am not a fan of this economist. BUT....for the first time ever, that I can remember....I happen to agree with one of his incessant PR releases. It is ridiculous that the FED has to come out every other day and give their commentary on some new report or data. They are doing nothing to guide the economy.....and.....their only impact is to disrupt the stock markets. We dont need them out there being economic sports casters......giving us a daily play by play.
OK.....I rest my case. All morning I have been commenting (ranting?) about the FED, the ELITES, government, etc, etc. Here we go right on cue with the market booming today. Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/fed...-could-be-needed-if-inflation-stays-high.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it’s possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting. Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. “While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,” she said in prepared remarks for a speech to a group of Fed watchers in New York. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run.” As a member of the Board of Governors, Bowman is a permanent voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Since taking office in late 2018, her public speeches have put her on the more hawkish side of the FOMC, meaning she favors a more aggressive posture towards containing inflation. Bowman said her mostly likely outcome remains that “it will eventually become appropriate to lower” rates, though she noted that “we are still not yet at the point” of cutting as “I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.” The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Statements this week from multiple officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated a cautious approach to cutting rates. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, an FOMC voter, told CNBC he likely sees just one cut this year, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated no cuts could happen if inflation does not decelerate further. Futures traders are pricing in three cuts this year, though it has become a close call between June and July for when they start. FOMC members in March also penciled in three cuts this year, though one unidentified official in the “dot plot” indicated no decreases until 2026 and there was considerable dispersion otherwise about how aggressively the Fed would move. “Given the risks and uncertainties regarding my economic outlook, I will continue to watch the data closely as I assess the appropriate path of monetary policy, and I will remain cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy,” Bowman said. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Moreover, she cited geopolitical risks and fiscal stimulus as other upside risks, along with stubbornly higher housing prices and labor market tightness. “Inflation readings over the past two months suggest progress may be uneven or slower going forward, especially for core services,” Bowman said. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report." MY COMMENT WTF is wrong with these people? Why is she even giving a talk to a group of "FED WATCHERS" in New York. These people she is talking to are financial insiders. It should be a FEDERAL CRIME......a mandatory prison felony....for any of these FED people to talk about anything that is FED business outside of the FED meeting days. Even their own personal opinions. Intentional or unintentional.....these sorts of comments are market manipulation plain and simple.....at least when you look at their impact. It may not be intentional but it should be expected if you have a brain No FED member should be discussing FED busines or anything the FED is involved in or doing, outside the meetings....in my view This stuff is way out of control. These FED A-holes are out of control with their EGO's and talk.....and....it seems so obvious that they are significantly impacting the markets...outright or unintentionally......through their stupidity. The timing of their comments....on days when the markets are doing well....is crazy.
FORTUNATELY.....with about 2.5 hours to go.....I am making a BIG CHUNK (investing term of art) of money today. Probably not enough to make me anywhere near positive for the week. BUT.....I can always hope that the markets continue to BOOM into the close today. My particular set of nine stocks are really on a BIG run today so far. SHOW ME THE MONEY.
FINALLY.....we got the close we deserve today. I was in the GREEN with eight of nine stocks. My lone red stock was SMCI. I had a nice big gain. I also beat the SP500 by 0.60% today. A good end to a very erratic week.
Every one of the big averages was down for this week. Glad to be done with it and move on. At least the good market today made up a lot of ground for investors. DOW year to date +3.15% DOW five days (-2.27%) SP500 year to date +9.73% SP500 five days (-1.02%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +9.41% NASDAQ 100 five days (-1.00%) NASDAQ year to date +9.46% NASDAQ five days (-1.34%) RUSSELL year to date +2.53% RUSSELL five days (-2.93%) As to MY entire portfolio, I am year to date as of the close today.....+21.73%. Last Friday my entire portfolio was at....+23.70%. I am happy to be up near 22% year to date. At the close yesterday I was below 20%. I consider this a challenging week....although....for long term investors who cares. In the end the week was not as bad as it seemed.
We move on from here having weathered a week that could have been much worse. We had the FED out and beating the brains out of the markets this week....or....at least trying to. All in all we ended up pretty good considering what could have been. Stocks are STILL in great position to move forward into earnings. The BULL MARKET.....is alive and well in spite of the past 2-3 weeks of investor skittishness. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. WE COME BACK STRONG NEXT WEEK.
