Have you ever thought about what would happen if the fed held a press conference and said, "We don't have much control over the economy, although we have a bit. Further, we are going to stop trying to micro control the economy. Don't expect anything out of us beyond cutting rates aggressively when we are approaching deflation and increase rates heavily when inflation exceeds 8%. At all other times, we will set the interest rate at 4.5%. Lastly, we are going to stop announcing anything or stating our opinion." ? Would that trigger the end of civilization?
Not a horrible market today.......but certainly not a happy one. The losses look pretty overblown to me and seem to be improving some at this moment. OBVIOUSLY the CPI report. Inflation comes in hotter than expected in March https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-comes-in-hotter-than-expected-in-march-123324666.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US consumer prices came in hotter than expected in March, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday morning. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% over the previous month and 3.5% over the prior year in March, an acceleration from February's 3.2% annual gain in prices. The data matched February's month-over-month increase. Both measures came in ahead of economist forecasts of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual increase, according to data from Bloomberg. The hot print complicates the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates as the central bank works to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. Fed officials have categorized the path down to 2% as "bumpy." Investors now anticipate two 25 basis point cuts this year, down from the six cuts expected at the start of the year, according to updated Bloomberg data. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in March climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 3.8% over last year — matching February's data. Both measures were higher than economist expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.7% annual gain. Markets sank following the data's release, with the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) jumping more than 14 basis points to touch above 4.5% for the first time in 2024. "Today’s crucial CPI print has likely sealed the fate for the June FOMC meeting with a cut now very unlikely," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in reaction to the print. "This marks the third consecutive strong reading and means that the stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip." "In fact, even if inflation were to cool next month to a more comfortable reading, there is likely sufficient caution within the Fed now to mean that a July cut may also be a stretch, by which point the US election will begin to intrude with Fed decision making," Shah added. Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, agreed, adding the hotter data may push more policymakers "into the two-rate cut camp." "The Fed has a bias toward cutting interest rates this year, but the strength of the labor market and recent gains in inflation are giving the central bank the wiggle room to be patient," Sweet said. "If the Fed does not cut interest rates in June, then the window could be closed until September because there is little data released between the June and July meetings that could alter the Fed’s calculus." "The odds are rising that the Fed cuts rates less than 75 basis points this year," he predicted. But Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, cautioned investors to be patient: "I think we have to be very careful with this idea that it’s a play-by-play process." In an interview with Yahoo Finance, he noted that "these types of readings do still point to disinflationary pressures. It’s still moving in the right direction, and it will take time." Following the data's release, markets were pricing in an 80% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its June meeting, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. That's up from a roughly 40% chance the day prior. Investors are also putting the probability that the central bank won't cut rates in July at higher than 50%, with markets now largely anticipating the first cut will come in September. Shelter, gas prices remain sticky Notable call-outs from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 5.7% on an unadjusted, annual basis and 0.4% month over month, matching February. The shelter index accounted for over 60% of the total 12-month increase in core prices. Sticky shelter inflation is largely to blame for higher core inflation readings, according to economists. The index for rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) each rose 0.4% on a monthly basis. Owners' equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay for the same property. In February, the index for rent rose 0.5% while OER increased 0.4%. Energy prices — largely to blame for the increase in headline inflation — continued to rise in March, buoyed by higher gas prices. The index jumped another 1.1% last month after rising 2.3% in February. On a yearly basis, the index climbed 2.1%. Gas prices increased 1.7% from February to March after rising 3.8% the previous month. The BLS noted the motor vehicle insurance index rose 2.6% in March, following a 0.9% increase in February. The index for apparel increased 0.7% over the month. Other indexes that rose in March included personal care, education, and household furnishings and operations. The food index increased 2.2% in March over the last year, with food prices rising 0.1% from February to March. The index for food at home held steady over the month. However, food away from home ticked up 0.3% month over month after rising 0.1% in February." MY COMMENT Yet another tempest in a teapot. You could just as likely......if the short term financial peope were not so erratic....see a headline that said: "Inflation Unchanged From last Month". In others words.....no big deal. Obviously we are in a bump up in gas prices right now and that is the reason for the headline increase. Most of the increase in Core inflation came from housing costs. Hopefully the FED will not overreact and freak-out and start fighting with the good economy. At the same time the OBSESSION with rate cuts....how many and when....is CRAZY. The economy is doing great as is business. Even if we get ZERO rate cuts.....the economy and business is STRONG and THRIVING. ALL in ALL......just a SILLY reaction but not unexpected with the readings and the skittishness of short term investors.
I saw a media report that NVDA hit correction territory some time today. That would normally mean a drop of 10% or more. I have not personally checked a chart to see if this is true.....but I assume it is true even if that is probably a dangerous assumption. FORTUNATELY the stock is in the GREEN right now.
I guess at the open today NVDA was technically down by about 12% from its high a short while ago....it opened at about $829. It was a very short event. It is now down about 9% at the current quote. No need to need to get all nervous. this is absolutely normal stock action with their big gains to data. Nvidia enters correction territory as stock falls 10% from all-time highs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/nvi...rcent-from-highs-in-correction-territory.html "Key Points Nvidia, which makes graphics processing units, or GPUs, has been a key beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom thanks to demand for its chips. The company’s shares are off 10% from their most recent all-time closing high of more than $950 apiece. The stock closed at a price of $853.54 on Tuesday, down 2% for the session. On Tuesday, rival chipmaker Intel unveiled a new AI chip called Gaudi 3, aimed at powering large language models, to compete with Nvidia’s most advanced chips." MY COMMENT No big deal......and....as to INTEL, if that dysfunctional company is a threat to NVDA I will eat my hat.
I will not get into the politics of the border.....but regarding inflation and housing costs.....I will say, you can not bring 8MILLION people into the country in three years without some impact on housing costs. I will also mention......I am just as informed in politics and EVERY issue as I am with investing. AND....I do consider politics in my investing mix of knowledge. I just dont get into that sort of discussion on this thread because it is so DIVISIVE. Having a realistic and reality based view of EVERYTHING....including politics....is important for any investor....in general. BUT....I do not allow my politics to keep me from buying great businesses. I may not like the politics of some businesses and some management....but....I invest to make money, NOT confirm or exercise my political thinking.
I dont have any plans to go out and apply for a foreign passport.....but I do find this trend interesting. The rich are getting second passports, citing risk of instability https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/rich-americans-get-second-passports-citing-risk-of-instability.html I can see where people in certain businesses might benefit from being a citizen in an EU country. BUT.....this is pure ELITE "stuff". If you would like more info on...."Golden Visa Countries"....there is a good list here. Golden Visas https://www.henleyglobal.com/residence-investment/golden-visa
WELL....at this moment I have a very mild loss today. My account is being helped by NVDA, SMCI, and COST. I will take it with the hope that this continues to the close today. If so....it will at least give me a big beat of the SP500 today. As they say.....APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS. The market direction even though UP and in a BULL MARKET.....is never straight up. The current pause will at some point lead to the next leg up for stocks. Much of this pause is due to NON-FUNDAMENTAL, NON-BUSINESS issues.......general economic data, investor skittishness, people feeling like their finances are out of control in day to day life, etc, etc, etc. We are very lucky to be totally debt free. That helps with all the price hikes that I see in daily life......the cost of eating out, the increases in HO and Auto insurance, the increases in our Medicare Supplement insurance, the increases in gas and groceries, etc, etc,etc. I also see increases in all the items that we routinely buy on Amazon. We are also lucky that our income allows us to have a big cushion from these increases.....in the form of extra money that we are able to put into our account each year.....if we choose. No doubt younger people under 40 and people in general are having a struggle right now keeping up.....or more importantly....."feel" like they are. AND...even people that are keeping up are probably edgy and very skittish right now.....about finances. It is certainly the case that investors are EXTREMELY jumpy right now. That is the GLORY of being long term, being rationally invested, and seeing reality for what it is. A market pause is NOTHING to fear. It is not 2022 all over again. The pandemic is over....although much of the fearfulness and unease of people currently is probably lingering PTSD from the pandemic. BE PATIENT.....the markets are more than a few days or a few weeks. The big gains come from the long term. In addition.....we are STILL up by a HUGE amount this year. Most of the day to day "stuff" and "coverage" is MASSIVE OVERREACTION. BE PATIENT.......and.....SMART.
My two kids and others I see that are low 40's or below are experiencing a reality check. BOTH my kids now have a net worth of $1MILLION or above. BOTH with their spouses are making large incomes. BUT....as is always the case when I ask them how it feels to be a MILLIONAIRE......I know the look they are giving me. I just laugh. It has always been that way. Even when you hit numbers that are goals....it feels like you are simply treading water. It was the same with my generation. Hitting some magic number of net worth does not take away the bills, the daily cost of living and the cost of raising kids. This is NORMAL......"you"....are making progress even if it does not feel that way. Stick to your investing plan and it will all work out. It is HAPPENING for....."you"....even if you can not feel it at the moment. Life and expectations have a way of covering up the progress we all have made.
I should simply IGNORE the markets more often. I finished nicely in the GREEN today compliments of....NVDA, COST, SMCI, and AMZN. I also got in a big beat on the SP500 today by......1.40%. It really was not that bad of a day in general. The DOW has gotten so high now that a 400 to 500 point loss sounds like a lot......but in reality.....it is in the neighborhood of about 1%.
I often think about this.....the role of luck versus hard work, and making something happen. I have always had success in life in sports, school (college at least), work and business, investing, and music. And....in every one of these aspects of life I have no doubt that other peoples expectations of me were blown away. I have no doubt that I am always severely underestimated. I am used to it and long ago learned to use it to my advantage. I may not be the best at something when I start.....but......I am CRAZY MOTIVATED and HATE, HATE, HATE, to fail......so I always work harder than anyone else. I therefore like this little article. Lucky vs. Repeatable https://collabfund.com/blog/lucky-vs-repeatable/ "Luck plays such a big role in the world. But few people want to talk about it. If I say you got lucky, I look jealous. If I tell myself that I got lucky, I feel diminished. Maybe a better way to frame luck is by asking: what isn’t repeatable? Lucky implies random events you could not see coming. What isn’t repeatable is different. Did Jeff Bezos get lucky creating Amazon? Not in the same way a lottery winner is lucky, of course. He was visionary and ambitious and savvy to a degree you only see a few times per century. But could he, starting today, without any money or name recognition, create a new multi-trillion dollar business from scratch? Maybe, but probably not. There are so many things that helped Amazon become what it is that can’t be replicated – growth of the internet, market conditions, old competitors, politics, regulations, etc. Bezos is enormously skilled in a way that is not luck. But a lot of what he did was not repeatable. Those points are not contradictory. It’s so important to know the difference between the two when attempting to learn from someone. You want to try to emulate skills that are repeatable. Attempting to copy the parts of someone’s success that aren’t repeatable is equivalent to a 56-year-old dressing like a teenager and expecting to be cool. There’s a law in evolution called Dollo’s Law of Irreversibility that says once a species loses a trait, it will never gain that trait back because the path that gave it the trait in the first place was so complicated that it can’t be replicated. Say an animal has horns, and then it evolves to lose its horns. The odds that it will ever evolve to regain its horns are nil, because the path that originally gave it horns was so complex – millions of years of selection under specific environmental and competitive conditions that won’t repeat in the future. You can’t call evolutionary traits luck – they came about because of very specific forces. You just can’t ever rely on those forces repeating themselves exactly as they did in the past. A lot of things work like that. In business and investing, you want to learn the big lessons about why things behave the way they do without assuming the past is a direct guide to the future, because it’s not – most of the details are not repeatable. History is the study of change, ironically used as a map of the future. Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal once talked about what happens when you try to learn a very specific, non-repeatable lesson when a broader, very repeatable lesson is what you needed to pay attention to: [After the dot-com crash], the lesson people learned from that was not, “I should never speculate on overvalued financial assets.” The lesson they learned was, “I should never speculate on internet stocks.” And so the same people who lost 90% or more of their money day-trading internet stocks ended up flipping homes in the mid 2000s, and getting wiped out doing that. It’s dangerous to learn narrow lessons. The great thing when you ask, “is this repeatable?” is that you start to focus on things that you and I – ordinary lay people – have a chance of repeating ourselves. You can learn a lot from Warren Buffett’s patience. But you can’t replicate the market environment he had in the 1950s, so be careful copying the specific strategies he used back then. You can learn so much from John D. Rockefeller about the importance of controlling distribution. But you cannot replicate the 20th century legal system that allowed him to destroy competitors, so don’t get carried away there. Elon Musk can teach you a lot about risk-taking and branding, but much less about competing in the auto business. Jeff Bezos can teach you so much about management and long-term thinking, but much less about e-commerce and cloud computing. The way to get luckier is to find what’s repeatable." MY COMMENT What a BRILLIANT lesson in this little short article......"find what is repeatable". I often say that in investing, business and all of my life......I simply find what works for me and do it over, and over, and over, for as long as it works. I dont look to evolve or change or add new ways of doing something if the "old way" works well and is achieving my goals. I apply this to investing. I invest the same way I have invested for the past FIFTY YEARS. The same focus on BIG CAP GROWTH stocks. There is no need to always be looking for the next great plan or investing scheme.....the same old investing behaviors that have always worked....still work. Unfortunately most people are looking for a magic bullet and try to make investing WAY TOO COMPLEX. I apply the same lesson in other areas of my life. I am perfectly good and comfortable with tech. BUT....do I want a WIFI irrigation controller....no thank you. I am fine with regular light switches. I dont need to live my life from phone apps. If I only need to do something once in a while or can do it quicker and easier the "old fashioned way"....that is what I do. For me it is all about time management, not wasting time, meaningless busy work, and knowing how to be efficient versus "feeling" like I am efficient because I spend all day on phone apps managing a bunch of meaningless busy work. BUT.....that is me....obviously the young generations have a different view and have been raised in a different environment. BUT one thing never changes.....for success....emulate and find WHAT IS REPEATABLE.
AND....my greatest advice to any small business owner. You are just working a crappy job if your business does not allow you to leverage the work, knowledge and production of others.........employees....or in today's world....contract workers. Your success is extremely limited if what you are doing depends on your own time. You MUST leverage and profit from other people. My second greatest advice to any small business owner.....pay yourself first. My third greatest advice to any small business owner......do your own bills. I had others prepare the checks for my signature and bills when I was in business. BUT.....I was the only one to sign all the checks and I would review ALL the bills once a month. As a small business owner you MUST be intimately familiar with where the money is coming from and where it is going. YOU....must control cash flow and achieve a mind set of being able to anticipate your future cash flow needs. You will never do this if you are not involved in your accounting for your business.
And....as usual every CPI report is.....the good, the bad and the ugly. We have heard all about the ugly and the bad today...no doubt. HERE is the good. Here’s the good news in a troubling inflation report There’s actually some good news for shoppers in the latest inflation numbers, along with a reasonable chance that the resurgence of inflation won’t last. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-the-good-news-in-a-troubling-inflation-report-171250324.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "It’s not dead yet. Inflation dropped sharply in 2023 but it has reasserted itself in 2024, with unsettling implications for shoppers, financial markets, and President Joe Biden’s reelection odds. The annualized inflation rate hit 3.5% in March, up from 3.2% the month before and 3.1% in January. The Federal Reserve’s inflation target is 2%, and for much of the last 12 months, it looked as if the Fed was making steady progress toward that goal. Now, maybe not. Starting in 2022, the Fed raised interest rates 11 times — its usual tactic for battling inflation — by a total of 5.25 percentage points. The last rate hike was in July. With inflation broadly declining since then, investors have been hoping the Fed is finished hiking rates. At the beginning of 2024, most analysts expected meaningful rate cuts this year. That looks increasingly unlikely. In January, the odds of rate cuts in 2024 were 100%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Those odds have now fallen to 89%, with 95% odds that rate cuts total one percentage point or less. That’s a big disappointment to investors, who were hoping for deeper rate cuts sooner, and it explains why a five-month stock market rally stalled at the end of March as investors began accounting for stubborn inflation. But not all is gloom. There’s actually some good news for shoppers in the latest inflation numbers, along with a reasonable chance that the resurgence of inflation won’t last. The buried gem in the otherwise troubling March inflation numbers is that goods inflation has essentially disappeared. The inflation rate for commodities in March was just 0.6% year over year, and the goods inflation rate has been under 1% for six months in a row. Earnings are rising by 4.1% on an annualized basis, which means that in terms of goods, consumers are regaining purchasing power lost after COVID-era supply-chain disruptions and surging demand from stuck-at-home consumers sent goods prices soaring. Goods inflation peaked at 14.2% in March of 2022, so the catchup is welcome. The most nettlesome goods inflation has been food, which is obviously a staple. Even that inflation is abating, with prices up just 1.2% year over year in March. Past price hikes are likely here to stay because labor costs for producing, processing, and transporting food have gone up. But again, paychecks are now growing by more than costs, allowing shoppers to catch up. There’s outright deflation in several areas. Since 2021, Yahoo Finance has tracked inflation in 28 categories that represent most things families spend money on. In seven goods categories — toys, appliances, furniture, schoolbooks, used vehicles, electronics, and new vehicles — prices are now falling. In seven other categories — clothing, prescription drugs, groceries, gasoline, pet products, alcohol, and household energy — the annual change in price levels is less than earnings growth. Above-average inflation is now being driven entirely by the service sector, where inflation is still uncomfortably high at 5.3%. Even there, anomalies are much of the story. One outlier is auto insurance, up a mind-boggling 22.2% year over year. That reflects the higher cost of cars during the pandemic, which means repairs now cost more. New cars also feature more sophisticated electronics, which are costlier to fix after an accident. Plus, drivers went faster during COVID and are still speeding, making accidents worse and more expensive. The other big driver of services inflation (and overall inflation) is rent, up 5.7% year over year. But the government’s rent numbers are dated and don’t fully reflect the cost of new leases, which have dropped since 2022, according to real-time data such as the Apartment List rent index. Economists expect official data to eventually reflect the lower cost of new leases, which will show up as lower rent and housing inflation in the future. Aside from rent and car insurance, prices in most other categories are getting back to normal. In 21 of the 28 categories we track, inflation is lower than wage growth and also less than 3%. That suggests inflation will continue to moderate, even if the headline number is a bit too high for the Fed to relax. President Biden has been counting on a sharp drop in inflation to boost voter attitudes and improve his reelection odds in November. He acknowledged that it's taking longer than he would like, saying in an April 10 statement, “We have more to do to lower costs for hardworking families.” Relief is coming, however, whether it's on Biden's timetable or not." MY COMMENT Unfortunately....government...continues to drive inflation through every action they take. AND....the FED is mute on this big issue. Add in the....FACT......I say it again....FACT.....that 3.5% inflation is absolutely perfect and right in line with historical norms for a good growing economy. AND....add in the....FACT....that a 2% inflation target is INSANITY and unsupported by anything....simply a made up number.....and we are doing just fine with the CPI. The....."bad thing"....the continued focus on the FED and micro-analysis of their every move and comment continues. People need to just tell them to STFU and move on by ignoring and disregarding them. in other words...take their power away.
Sounds like good news for MSFT shareholders. "Microsoft will unveil new Windows and cloud AI features in May Microsoft will reveal new AI tools for use on PCs and in the cloud at its annual Build conference, according to a session list posted Wednesday. In January, Nadella told analysts that 2024 is the year when “AI will become [a] first-class part of every PC,” and the itinerary for Microsoft’s May conference reflects those goals. Mustafa Suleyman, who joined Microsoft from AI startup Inflection last month, will speak alongside CEO Satya Nadella at the opening keynote." https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/microsoft-will-unveil-new-windows-and-cloud-ai-features-in-may.html Time for all these companies to put up or shut up when it comes to AI.
I am not a fan of Jamie Dimon.....BUT....I totally agree with this approach. Jamie Dimon says he runs JPMorgan with a military tactic in mind named the ‘OODA loop’— and it prevents the ‘greatest mistakes’ in war and business https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-says-runs-jpmorgan-153117230.html Perhaps I am drawn to this sort of hands on management because I grew up in the ARMY. My father was a career Army Officer till I was 24 years old. I grew up in the Army and attended school through High School on Army bases. Every kid I knew through High School had a father in the Army. We ALL lived on Army bases. And we ALL spent our entire lives in Army facilities from the PX to the schools, to health care, to the barber shop, to the Officers and NCO clubs, to the house and neighborhood we lived in, to the sports facilities, to the commissary, to youth clubs and activities, to running around Army bases. It was like living and growing up in a very cohesive small town. Being raised in the Army gave all of us a certain view of everything. Back in the late 1960's I suspect that the college attendance rate for my (Army) High School was about 98%. Shockingly high, even than. When I went away to college....I found it very simple after the standards at our (Army) High School. At the same time we were sometimes looked down on in the surrounding civilian world and disrespected. Most of us came out of that environment with great work ethic and a mind-set to achieve. BLAH, BLAH, BLAH...... I also agree with his feelings about Corporate Jargon being worthless.
I was very lucky to find this forum and this thread in May 2021. If I simply followed this thread and spent less time on other trading forums, now I would be looking at a six figure account. It'a very simple. Just replicate what successful investors are doing and you'll do just fine.
This is the main reason why my father failed as a businessman. You must be present and never let other people do your bills.
As I was doing some late night reading yesterday I was thinking....what if the PPI comes in lower than expected and we have a split in the inflation data? I guess that is now what we have. Should be good for stocks today......or.....at least soften losses. Of the two....CPI and PPI.....I would much rather have the PPI show lower than expected data. Further down in the economy and the supply chain. Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in March, less than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/ppi...sale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-march.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The producer price index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. However, on a 12-month basis, the PPI rose 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023, indicating pipeline pressures that could keep inflation elevated. initial filings for jobless benefits fell to 211,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and below the 217,000 estimate. A measure of wholesale prices increased less than expected in March, providing some potential relief from worries that inflation will hold higher for longer than many economists had expected. The producer price index rose 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus and not as much as the 0.6% increase in February, according to a release Thursday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, on a 12-month basis, the PPI climbed 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023, indicating pipeline pressures that could keep inflation elevated. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations. Excluding trade services from the core level, the increase was 0.2% monthly but 2.8% from a year ago. The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices again rose more than expected in March, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will be unable to lower interest rates anytime soon. On the producer price side, March’s gain was pushed by services, which saw a 0.3% increase on the month. Within that category, the index for securities brokerage and other investment-related fees jumped 3.1%. Conversely, goods prices decreased 0.1%, flipping a 1.2% increase in February. Final demand costs for energy, which have been on the rise lately, actually fell 1.6% on the month. However, wholesale prices for final demand food and goods less food and energy climbed 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively. Though prices have been rising at the pump, the final demand index for gasoline fell 3.6%. That contrasted with the consumer price index, which showed gasoline up 1.7% on the month. Markets showed little reaction to the data, with futures tied to major stock indexes slightly higher though Treasury yields declined. In other economic news Thursday, initial filings for jobless benefits fell to 211,000, a decline of 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level and below the 217,000 estimate from Dow Jones. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased to 1.82 million, up 28,000 for the period, according to the Labor Department release. The economic data points are being watched closely as the Federal Reserve contemplates its next moves on monetary policy. Wednesday’s CPI release jolted markets, which had been anticipating an aggressive series of interest rate cuts this year. The report showed annual inflation running at 3.5%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The market now is pricing in the possibility of just two cuts this year, likely not starting until September, according to CME Group data." MY COMMENT This is a good report. I would much rather see the PPI reporting less of an increase than expected than the CPI. This is how you WRING inflation out of the economy....get it out of the lowest level of the economy at the producer level and spread it on up the supply chain from there. At least that is my off the cuff view. Of course the markets will NOT have to deal with all the fear mongering behavior after this report.....but..... gains so far are mild and tenuous. We are going to have very erratic data for at least the next 6-12 months as we work our way out of the current economic situation. We ARE moving in the right direction.....slowly.....but it is going to take time. The work has to be done by the economy not the FED and that takes time for recovery to spread its way from the bottom of the economy at the producer level up to the consumer level.
Some good points STRATHMORE. Glad you are posting here....keep it up. When you have a chance.....if you wish.....let us know how you are invested and how you are doing. It is a learning experience....for us ALL. We all make mistakes along the way. That is just part of the process.
