The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    OK....I am posting this from the standpoint of being a business person and as an investor.....NOT as a social or cultural comment and MOST DEFINITELY NOT as a political comment.

    New Study Calls into Question Whether DEI Programs Really Boost Corporate Earnings

    https://fee.org/articles/new-study-...dei-programs-really-boost-corporate-earnings/

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "It’s safe to say that diversity, equity, and inclusion is one of the more controversial ideas of our time (and a multibillion-dollar industry).

    Some such as Elon Musk argue that DEI — which definitionally speaking means addressing structural inequalities in society — constitutes blatant racism. Others contend that DEI is simply about creating more equitable and harmonious workplaces, and offers clear financial benefits to companies, as well. “Study after study has proved that diverse companies perform better than their more homogeneous counterparts,” Inc. reported in 2023. “Companies that don’t foster an inclusive environment or prioritize diversity initiatives do so at their own peril.”

    “Proved” is a heavy (and inaccurate) word here, but Inc. isn’t wrong about the abundance of evidence showing that DEI initiatives make companies more profitable. From 2015–23, McKinsey & Company, a multinational strategy and management consulting firm, released four separate studies showing that DEI initiatives boost corporate earnings. Unfortunately for DEI advocates, the research appears to be bunk.

    A new study published in Econ Journal Watch, a semiannual peer-reviewed academic journal, shows that researchers were unable to replicate the results of all four McKinsey studies.

    [O]ur results indicate that despite the imprimatur often given to McKinsey’s 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2023 studies, McKinsey’s studies neither conceptually … nor empirically … support the argument that large US public firms can expect on average to deliver improved financial performance if they increase the racial/ethnic diversity of their executives,” professors John R. M. Hand and Jeremiah Green found.

    This is not the only research that shows DEI initiatives are not the panacea for corporate earnings supporters claim them to be. Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Robin J. Ely, a professor of business administration at Harvard, and David A. Thomas, the president of Morehouse College, point out that “the rallying cries for more diversity in companies” are not supported “by robust research findings.” Ely and Thomas add, “We say this as scholars who were among the first to demonstrate the potential benefits of more race and gender heterogeneity in organizations.”

    The idea that all these studies showing clear financial benefits to DEI are rubbish might be shocking to some readers, but it’s a familiar academic pattern. For well over a decade, scholars and media have publicly worried about the “replication crisis” in science. It turns out that an astonishing number of findings in various fields — from psychology and economics to sociology, medicine, and beyond — fail to hold up when other researchers attempt to replicate the findings, as Vox has explained.

    None of this is to say that diversity and inclusion are inherently bad, of course.

    I value diversity and am an inclusive person, and I encourage others to be the same. It’s the means we choose to achieve diversity and inclusion that are the problem, as well as that word wedged in between them: equity. To many, advancing social equity is a paramount value. Because of this, many support illiberal means (in the classical sense) to achieve this end—including supporting policies that actively discriminate on the basis of race.

    Coleman Hughes, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of The End of Race Politics, recently appeared on The View and offered a better approach. “My argument is that we should try our very best to treat people without regard to race, both in our personal lives and our public policy,” Hughes told the hosts (who accused him of being “co-opted” by the Right). Hughes is right to say that this is the North Star we should be aiming for: the equal treatment of all people regardless of race or class.

    The great orator and abolitionist Frederick Douglass saw that such a view is the true path to progress. “In a composite nation like ours, as before the law, there should be no rich, no poor, no high, no low, no white, no black, but common country, common citizenship, equal rights, and a common destiny,” Douglass noted in a speech in 1867.

    The ethos of DEI runs counter to this, which is precisely why both the concept and industry should be scrapped. A good place to start would be to dispense with the fiction that DEI programs are a rainbow leading to a pot of gold in corporate profits."

    MY COMMENT

    This little example of research results that can not be replicated isslustrates a big problem that we have been having lately. As the article states we seem to be in an epidemic lately with research results that seem to be suspect or in some cases outright fraud.

    When it comes to capitalism and the economy and business.....my view is simply.....companies exist to do business and make money for their shareholders. Anything else....including pushing social and cultural....is not their job. Stick to business, be quiet about your personal views......and.....make money. There is no need to piss off half your market when you are in business.

    As a business you have one obligation.....be a successful company and make money.......and....that is to your shareholders who are gambling their personal money to support your business.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    WELL....the markets have hit a soft spot right now with the DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ in the red. My view....short term profit taking by AI trading platforms from the green that we saw earlier. This is certainly NOT in line with the good PPI report today.

    Also an indication of the very erratic and skittish investor mind-set that we are seeing lately.

    BUT....as usual....this too shall pass.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    Meanwhile back in the real world of business.....I like this little article.

    Amazon CEO Touts AI Revolution While Committing to Cost Cuts

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-ceo-touts-ai-revolution-113100614.html

    "........Writing in his annual letter to shareholders, Jassy laid out a vision for how generative AI is the company’s next pillar of growth following Marketplace, Prime and its cloud-computing unit Amazon Web Services.

    “Generative AI may be the largest technology transformation since the cloud (which itself, is still in the early stages), and perhaps since the Internet,” Jassy wrote in his letter Thursday. “This GenAI revolution will be built from the start on top of the cloud. The amount of societal and business benefit from the solutions that will be possible will astound us all.”"..........

    and

    ......."Jassy also said Amazon remains committed to cost-cutting.

    “We’ve challenged every closely held belief in our fulfillment network, and reevaluated every part of it, and found several areas where we believe we can lower costs even further while also delivering faster for customers,” Jassy said in his letter.".....

    MY COMMENT

    Just what I like to hear as a shareholder.......NOW.....make it happen instead of just talking about it.
     
  4. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    Not too long ago poor GOOGLE was in the dog house along with APPLE. Now....they have broken free of the negative sound bite loop.

    Alphabet Heads Toward $2 Trillion With Investors Cheering AI Progress

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-heads-toward-2-trillion-125451923.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "(Bloomberg) -- Investors are becoming more optimistic about Alphabet Inc.’s artificial intelligence strategy, after a run of glitches and misfires that sent its shares tumbling.

    The stock is heading back toward what would be a record $2 trillion market value — a milestone surpassed only by Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. in the United States. It has rallied back from last month’s low, when the shares dropped on concerns the company was falling behind in AI.

    Using this week’s cloud event to show that its AI model is enterprise-ready despite recent stumbles in its consumer-facing tools, focus is now turning to this month’s earnings and a developer’s conference in May. While Alphabet’s path to AI monetization is still seen as cloudy, the stock’s relatively cheap valuation has kept it attractive to many on Wall Street.

    While the headlines haven’t been favorable, Google’s role in generative AI products will present massive growth opportunities for the stock,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive officer at Defiance ETFs. Alphabet is also set to benefit from making its own generative AI tools that can power more precise ads and increase revenues from ad spend, she added.

    Alphabet’s misfiring Gemini product had been viewed as a major setback for a firm known for its technological prowess, with the company in February pausing an image generation feature that drew criticism over inaccurate historical depictions of race.

    The company’s cloud computing conference in Las Vegas this week offered investors some reassurance, as the firm showed how Gemini can be used to create advertisements, prevent cybersecurity threats and spin up short videos and podcasts. Google also showed a new chip designed to handle AI workloads.

    News that Apple Inc. is considering using Google’s Gemini technology to power AI services added more fuel to the rebound. Up to the last close, shares are up 12% this year.

    “Google’s hardware advances, Gemini progress, and AI driven app demos should help sentiment on AI capabilities,” Bank of Amercia Corp. analyst Justin Post wrote in a note Tuesday. “We see Cloud as positive driver for stock given AI credibility, faster growth, improving margins.”

    The stock trades at 21 times forward earnings, below Microsoft’s 33 times, and about the same as the S&P 500 Index. Alphabet shares rose 0.7% on Thursday.

    Still, not all are convinced by the discount, despite “plenty of people that are making the argument that it’s so cheap right now,” said Michael Lippert, vice president and portfolio manager at the Baron Opportunity Fund.

    Given the competitive search space, Alphabet “should be investing every single dollar at a higher ROI (return on investment) into their own businesses,” he said.

    For now, the company’s updates have at least offered investors some encouragement. JP Morgan Chase & Co. analyst Doug Anmuth noting this week that he expected Gemini integration to result in more than 20% revenue growth for Google Cloud."

    MY COMMENT

    The......talking phase.....for AI is now over with. Companies now have to actually walk the talk. No doubt ALL the BIG CAP TECH monster companies will be able to greatly profit from AI. BUT.....it will take time and some failures for this massive leap forward to be realized and than fully realized. investors need to be patient.
     
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    Here is my problem with Cathie Wood.....she is NOT a long term investor as she claims to be.....she is a short to medium term trader.

    Here's Why Nobody Is Talking About Cathie Wood Anymore

    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-...talking-about-cathie-wood-anymore/?src=A00220

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "If your ETFs are down this year — you have every reason to be upset. Losing money when the S&P 500 already returned nearly 10% this year — is enough to steam most investors including those betting on Cathie Wood.

    And unfortunately, losing money during such a banner year isn't impossible. Ten U.S. diversified ETFs, including Cathie Woods' ARK Innovation (ARKK), Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW) and Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (VIOV), are all in the red for the year, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from Morningstar Direct and MarketSurge.

    And these laggard ETFs are all suffering from similar setbacks. Stubbornly high interest rates are cutting down small, speculative and dividend paying stocks. "A higher for longer interest rate environment has played a role in equity ETF performance to start 2024," said Todd Rosenbluth, director of research at Vetta Fi. "High dividend yielding, more defensively positioned ETFs … are struggling."


    Woods' Sinking ARK

    Perhaps most surprising is the more than 7% drop this year by Woods' ARK Innovation — making it the second-worst U.S. diversified ETF this year so far. It's a shock as this same ETF soared 67.6% in 2023 — making it the best of last year.

    But the tables are turned on the $7.4 billion-in-assets ARK Innovation this year. What's the problem? Tesla (TSLA) certainly doesn't help. Shares of the electric vehicle maker crashed more than 30% this year. That's a big problem for ARK Innovation as it's the ETF's largest position at 9.9% of the portfolio. Tesla's first-quarter revenue and profit both disappointed investors.

    ARK Innovation's woes, though, go beyond Tesla. More than three-quarters of the ETF's nearly 40 positions are down this year. "ARKK's troubles are connected to Tesla's struggles but other disruptive technology positions … have underperformed," Rosenbluth said. Adding salt to the wound, shares of AXS Short Innovation Daily ETF (SARK), which bets against ARKK's positions, is up 9.2% this year.

    Additionally, Woods ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF, ARKX, is down nearly 4% — making it another of the 10 worst ETFs this year.

    Sizing Up ETFs Lagging The S&P 500

    Momentum and growth are where the action is. And ETFs that don't play those games are suffering.

    So far, only 4% of actively traded U.S. diversified stock ETFs are down this year. But some of the losses really sting. The $363.4 million-in-assets Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF is the most painful. The ETF that owns stocks to benefit from clean energy is down 22.6% this year. Its position in solar-power firm Sunnova Energy (NOVA) isn't helping. That stock is down nearly 70% this year. Solar stocks are struggling partly due to concerns about the future of government subsidies for clean energy in an election year, Rosenbluth says.

    Small Value And Dividends Suffer

    Remember how this was supposed to be the year of small, value and dividends stocks? It's not happening yet.

    The $1.2 billion-in-assets Invesco High Yield Eq Dividend Achievers ETF (PEY) is down 2% this year. The yields on the ETF's holdings look less appealing compared with the high yields still possible from safer short-term Treasuries. "This ETF has nearly half of exposure in utilities stocks and a hefty chunk in consumer staples," Rosenbluth said. "Such sectors are unappealing."

    Meanwhile, a number of ETFs owning small, value-priced stocks are lagging. The $1.4 billion-in-assets Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value is down nearly 2%. Again, small value ETFs are reeling from higher interest rates. "Small cap value ETFs are out of favor. These companies often need to take on debt in hopes to grow and are paying high rates," Rosenbluth said.

    When you're the only one you know losing money, it's time to pay attention. "Equity ETFs do not all perform the same. What's inside has driven and will continue to impact performance," Rosenbluth said.

    MY COMMENT

    I have seen this many times over my investing years. A manager makes huge gains in one year and becomes a household name as a result. BUT....they can never seem to replicate the result again.

    Other times some manager or economist makes a great economic or market call and becomes a household name....but...can never replicate it again.

    It is the right place right time.......only once....syndrome. It is playing the media and PR game off that one big hit. A one hit wonder. I will take steady over the one big hit all day long.

    It would also concern me greatly as an investor if a manager of a fund that I own constantly talked about being a long term investor with long term goals but at the same time traded like a maniac.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    Poor Boeing. Not a pretty picture for business or investors or the flying public.

    Boeing somehow managed to get itself into even bigger trouble

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/investing/boeing-safety-problems/index.html

    The last 20 years of this company are being dragged through the media and the mud....exposed for all to see. TOTAL MANAGEMENT INCOMPETENCE....and perhaps if some allegations are true....there "might" even be some criminal conduct. At the same time you have the CEO and others taking home the BIG BUCKS and company PERKS.

    it is gong to take a long tome for this company to recover. If there were more companies and competitors in the airplane business....this company would be gone. They are very fortunate that they are one of only two companies in the world with the ability to produce commercial airplanes.
     
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    I am enjoying a BIG GAIN so far today. I have a single stock in the red.....HD.

    If this can continue to the close it has the potential to make up most of the losses that I have had this week....since those losses were mild for at least two of the days this week.

    YES......I am counting my chickens before they hatch.

    AND....yes I know about chickens....having worked as a laborer on a chicken farm back in the late 1960's one summer while in college. Not a nice job back than........cages were suspended with about 2-3 feet of chicken manure under them which we had to remove with shovels and wheelbarrows. Extreme smells, extreme dust, extreme conditions every day. I was lucky to work my way up to taking care of a building or research chickens and other birds.....that building had a manual high pressure hose to flush out the manure every day. Unfortunately my boss at that facility got caught literally sleeping on the job so they put me back in the normal chicken farm....on the basis that if he had time to sleep he did not need a helper.

    The workers at the farm were a mix of college students and older permanent workers. It was a real eyeopener and provided a great incentive lesson in the value of staying in college and working hard.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    COURAGE....PATIENCE....hold the line.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    I do feel sorry for people....especially young people with kids...that are being hit be inflation right now. I see it in many bills that we get.

    Our rates are up on all utility bills.

    Our pest service is up by over 10% this year.

    Our HO insurance just had a 11% jump this year.

    Our Auto insurance is up by at least 30% this year.

    Our Medicare Sup policy just raised our monthly premium by about 20%.

    Grocery prices are up....Easter dinner cost about $200 for eight people.

    Our average daily restaurant bill is now at about $35 per day....it was about $28 a couple of years ago.

    Our horse expenses for supplements and chemicals is up by about 20% from a few years ago.

    Our vet bills for our dogs is up by at least 20-30% from a few years ago.

    We are fortunate to be able to have no financial issues and to have the ability to simply pay more. People with kids are really being hit hard since they are buying for a family and the impact on them is compounded by the number of people they are buying for.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    OK....the markets are doing just about what I expected today. We had some green at the open on the PPI report. Than the traders kicked in and took some profit off the open and drive the averages into the red. And now.....the markets are picking up steam on the good PPI report today balancing out the CPI yesterday.

    With two hours to go we have good potential to move with strength into the close.

    Monday near the open the SP500 was at 5211. Right now it is at 5203. We have just about evolved to a dead flat week in spite of the losses between the open on Monday and now. I consider that a very nice week so far.....considering....that I bet most people "feel" like it has been a negative week.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    At this moment I have a BIG gain going today. What I really like is the PROBABILITY for the markets to continue to add over the next couple of hours.

    But......"potential"....does not equal fact.
     
  14. Strathmore

    Strathmore Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2022
    Messages:
    56
    Likes Received:
    66
    I know you never invest in airplane businesses, but this Boeing turmoil could be a good opportunity for Airbus to take even more of the market share.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    If we keep going like this to the close.....the week will ALL be dependent on the BIG BANK earnings tomorrow.

    This week by the close tomorrow we will have had 546 companies report. The BIG ones will happen before the bell tomorrow with reports from.....JPM, BLK, WFC, and C.

    I expect ok to good earnings from JPM, BLK and C. Poor WF will lag and they deserve to lag with all the issues they continue to have.

    BLK and JPM with a little luck could kick off a really good day tomorrow.
     
    #19495 WXYZ, Apr 11, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2024
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    Yes Strathmore.....I agree that the current issues with BA are a great opportunity for Airbus to aggressively go after and grow market share.

    I have owned BA a few times over the years. They always seem to disappoint me. I have never owned Airbus.

    I dont follow Airbus so I dont know how they stand right now.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    My somewhat speculative investment in SMCI gives me a little bit of a position in an AI related hardware company.

    I see it as a complimentary investment to the chip end of AI that is Nvidia, Intel, and AMD. They are highly connected to NVDA but I believe they also work closely with Intel, AMD, Samsung, and the other chip companies.

    But for now and over the next year or two....I will hold at my initial investment of $50,000. I will watch and wait.

    I AM NOT recommending this company to anyone else.....it is speculative and an aggressive investment. If I did not have any money in the chip companies....I would take this little pull back.....correction...in NVDA to buy that stock.
     
    #19497 WXYZ, Apr 11, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2024
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    WOW......big wow....a KILLER big gain day for my stocks today. ALL in the green except for HD.

    A huge beat of the SP500 today for me by.....1.85%.
     
    #19498 WXYZ, Apr 11, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2024
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    I have BEAT the SP500 over the past two days by........3.25%. That is money in the bank.

    My gain today.....2.59%. My gain yesterday......2.40%.
     
    #19499 WXYZ, Apr 11, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2024
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,951
    Likes Received:
    5,046
    I like this list....because I did not own any of them. Always good to dodge this bullet.

    15 Stocks That Have Destroyed the Most Wealth Over the Past Decade
    These stocks have eroded shareholder value in dollar terms.

    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/15-stocks-that-have-destroyed-most-wealth-over-past-decade

    A master lesson in how to......NOT....create shareholder value. There are some real investing and business lessons here.

    "Last week, I highlighted 15 stocks that have created the most wealth over the 10-year period from 2014 through 2023, focusing on market appreciation in dollars. This time, I conducted a similar exercise from the opposite point of view to identify stocks that eroded shareholder value instead of creating it. To find them, I started by sorting through Morningstar’s US equity database to find companies with the largest drops in market capitalization, which reflects the current stock price multiplied by total shares outstanding, over the same period. To get a more accurate picture of wealth destruction, I added back the total value of dividends paid and stock spinoffs, which partially offset the market-cap declines.

    The Results
    The graph below shows the 15 stocks that have destroyed the most value for shareholders based on these metrics.

    Top 15 Wealth-Destroying Stocks Over the Past 10 Years
    [​IMG]
    Source: Morningstar Direct and author's calculations. Data as of Dec. 3, 2023. The dollar amount for X Corp. reflects the change in market capitalization from Jan. 1, 2014 through June 30, 2022.
    As a group, the wealth destroyers wiped out an estimated $281.2 billion in shareholder wealth over the past 10 years. That’s a big number, but far less than the estimated $15.9 trillion in wealth created by the top 15 stocks on the positive side. This reflects a few different factors. First, companies with outstanding financial results and share-price performance can continue to outshine their competitors over many years. While it’s impossible to lose more than 100% of your initial investment in a stock (unless you’re wading into risky territory like derivatives and leverage), winning stocks can have upside potential well in excess of their initial value. Second, the odds of experiencing a loss in any individual stock are relatively high, but value destruction can be somewhat limited if a stock never reached a large market cap to begin with.

    Many of these companies are large-cap stocks that once dominated their industries. GE Aerospace GE, for example, is the legal successor to General Electric, which was once one of the largest companies in the United States based on revenue and profitability. Over the 10-year period ended in 2023, General Electric destroyed an estimated $55 billion in shareholder value, compared with about $33 billion for Biogen BIIB, the second company on the list.

    While the remaining companies span a motley assortment of industries, sectors, and underlying problems, many of them have a common thread: a lack of economic moat, or sustainable competitive advantage. Ten of the companies on the list have no economic moat, and another three have narrow economic moats. Only two companies on the list—Biogen and GE Aerospace—currently have a wide Morningstar Economic Moat Rating. Despite those companies’ previous problems, our analysts believe both have a competitive advantage going forward: for Biogen, a specialty-market-focused drug portfolio and novel, neurology-focused pipeline, and for GE Aerospace, a specialized skill-set in designing, building, and servicing complex products with long lead times and high switching costs. Moats were much more prevalent on my list of wealth creators, with 13 of the 15 garnering wide economic moat ratings based on our analysts’ assessments.

    Economic Moat and Growth Statistics
    [​IMG]
    Source: Morningstar Direct. Data as of Dec. 31, 2023.
    Another common factor: deteriorating fundamentals. As shown in the table above, most of the value destroyers suffered declining revenue and operating income over the past 10 years. Three of them—American International Group AIG, Paramount Global PARA, and General Electric—have also reported declines in free cash flow. Investors responded to these worsening metrics by bidding down the stock prices.

    What Went Wrong?

    It’s tough to generalize about what led to these companies’ falloffs. Just as there are many different paths to greatness, there are many paths to value destruction. But in digging into these companies’ travails, a few issues surfaced more than once.

    • Acquisitions that failed to create shareholder value. GE previously built up a sprawling portfolio of businesses in many different areas, but complexity and lack of focus eventually led to its downfall. Schlumberger SLB took a massive write-off of $13 billion in 2019 to account for the decline in its acquired operations in the American pressure pumping business. Franklin Resources BEN has made numerous acquisitions over the past few years but has struggled to win back market share as performance has lagged.
    • Failure to keep up with changes in consumer preferences. Paramount Global, for example, has watched its net income shrink as viewers have abandoned traditional television in favor of streaming services. Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA has lagged as consumers have shifted toward online services for prescriptions and other products.
    • Failures of risk management. Citigroup C was one of the hardest-hit banks in the 2008 financial crisis and has been struggling to get its business on a more profitable path ever since then. Similarly, American International Group AIG sold large amounts of credit-default swaps on subprime mortgage products, leading to a massive government bailout in 2008 and many years of poor financial performance since then.
    • Challenging external factors. As a leading oilfield services company, Schlumberger is heavily dependent on energy prices. The oil price collapse between 2014 and 2016 took a heavy toll on its revenue and profitability. Las Vegas Sands’ LVS revenue took a big hit when covid-19 restrictions in Asia made it impossible for consumers to visit casinos in Macao and other locations.
    • Lack of success in developing new products. Once a biotech darling, Biogen has suffered several setbacks in product development. It was counting on a new Alzheimer’s disease medication to replace falling revenue from multiple sclerosis drugs, but progress on the drug stalled out at various points. After numerous controversies and setbacks with Medicare coverage, Biogen recently announced that it will discontinue clinical trials.
    Looking Ahead

    Shareholders in these 15 companies have suffered greatly over the past 10 years. But as I pointed out in my previous article, what really matters for investors considering a new purchase is a company’s future prospects and whether the current stock price offers a margin of safety.

    Morningstar Ratings and Valuations
    [​IMG]
    Source: Morningstar Direct. Data as of April 8, 2024.
    On that front, the wealth destroyers are a mixed bag. Five of the 15 have Morningstar Ratings of 3 stars, indicating that they’re neither significantly undervalued nor overvalued based on our analysts’ assessments. Five others—APA APA, Biogen, Citigroup, Paramount, and Perrigo PRGO—are currently trading at modest discounts to our estimates of their value, earning them 4-star ratings. Two stocks, Grupo Televisa TV and Walgreens Boots Alliance, are trading at more significant discounts and were slightly below Morningstar’s “consider buying” cutoff as of this writing. American International Group remains well above analyst Brett Horn’s fair value estimate of $68 per share and currently earns a 2-star rating."

    MY COMMENT

    This list is how you DO NOT create shareholder value as management. These factors are HUGE RED FLAGS for investors:

    Acquisitions that failed to create shareholder value.
    Failure to keep up with changes in consumer preferences.
    Failures of risk management.
    Challenging external factors.
    Lack of success in developing new products.


    Investors have a much harder time knowing when to sell compared to when to buy. The list above is a good starting point in deciding to sell if a company you own has two or more of these issues and you are not sure they are short term.

    I would personally add another factor to the list......an obsessive focus by management to sell of parts of the company under the guise of creating share holder value. In other words as we often see......like with GE....selling a company right out of existence...piece by piece.

    What do most of the above list have in common? INCOMPETENT company management.

    In theory my list of what I look for in a stock is the antithesis of this list.......AMERICAN, BIG CAP, ICONIC PRODUCTS, DOMINANT, WORLD WIDE MARKETING, DIVIDEND PAYING, companies. I want companies so dominant that their moat is an ocean.....the cream of the crop in the entire world.
     
    #19500 WXYZ, Apr 11, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2024

Share This Page