Sounds about right to me. US quarterly earnings to feature big growth in tech-related companies https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-quarterly-earnings-feature-big-201243351.html Probably part of the reason we saw this happen today. Stock market today: 'Magnificent 7' power stock surge after CPI-fueled sell-off https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...urge-after-cpi-fueled-sell-off-161315938.html
At the same time: Rivian, Lucid at New Lows as Ford Price Cut Fans EV Concerns https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-lucid-eye-record-lows-161024709.html MY COMMENT I posted this link to make a point. I know a couple that has owned RIVIAN for a few years now. They bought the stock because it is a darling of the progressive media and it fits in with their very progressive thinking. I told them about 6 months ago that the EV market was NOT what was commonly published and that it was stuck at about 3-5% of new car sales. That consumers did not want an EV. Etc, etc, etc. I could tell that they were not open in the slightest to what I was saying. They have taken a big ride down, down, down in RIVIAN. They continue to hold the stock....mostly because of their progressive views and inability to see the company based on reality. I consider this an example of political and social bias....impacting an investment decision. This is a HUGE danger......liberal, conservative, progressive, moderate, right wing, left wing.....any investor can NEVER afford to let their personal, social, and political views impact what they buy. It is all about making money....not....giving in to your BIAS.
Even though I just bought a new MacBook Pro and a new MacBook Air over the past 12 months......I am glad to see this happening as an APPLE shareholder. Apple Plans to Overhaul Entire Mac Line With AI-Focused M4 Chips https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-plans-overhaul-entire-mac-165009775.html This is a huge step into AI for APPLE. Exactly what they should be doing. BUT....woe is me....my new MacBooks only have the M3 chip. Actually I dont really care....what I have is way more capability than I need for what I do on the computer.
It begins. JPMorgan Chase tops expectations on trading results, lower-than-expected credit costs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-earnings-q1-2024.html BlackRock hits record $10.5 trillion in assets under management, profit jumps https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrocks-first-quarter-profit-rises-100240525.html Wells Fargo shares fall as lower interest income cuts into profits https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/wells-fargo-wfc-earnings-q1-2024.html MY COMMENT BlackRock and JP Morgan were clear BEATS. Even Wells Fargo in spite of the headline was a MODERATE BEAT....in most categories including Revenue and EPS.......Net Income Per Share was down due to an extraordinary FDIC charge.
Some good basic information on CORRECTIONS. If you are a new or young investor you may have never gone through a correction. This is what it means when you see the term "correction" used in the investing world. What Is a Stock Market Correction? Investors may be shaken by a drop of 10% or more in a stock market index, but corrections are par for the course. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/what-is-a-stock-market-correction (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The stock market has been a means for many investors to generate wealth and achieve long-term financial goals. But, while indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have comfortably outpaced inflation and rewarded investors over multiple decades, they have also weathered multiple stock market corrections. "A correction is when a broad measure of the market – the S&P 500, for example – declines at least 10% but less than 20%," states Dan Tolomay, chief investment officer at Trust Company of the South. Corrections can also happen to individual assets. A company may go through a correction due to a bad earnings report, an overheated valuation or other factors. Some stocks go through corrections while broader indexes like the S&P 500 continue to march higher. Here's what you need to know about stock market corrections: Stock Market Corrections Are Normal Most investors don't like to see their portfolios drop by a correction-sized amount of 10% or more within a few weeks, but this is part of investing in the stock market. While all investors know that stocks don't go up forever, a few good months can create a false sense of security. Then, investors may end up panicking during a stock market correction and sell off some of their holdings to limit their losses. That's one of the worst things to do during a stock market correction. "While market crashes or downturns are never pleasant and cause fear and uncertainty, (they) offer great opportunities for the long term – the ability to pick up brand-name stocks with strong balance sheets and growth prospects, at fire-sale prices," says Arvind Ven, CEO and founder of Capital V Group. Some stocks lose value for reasons outside of their control. For instance, Meta Platforms Inc. (ticker: META) used to lose value if Snap Inc. (SNAP) released an unfavorable earnings report. Investors reasoned that if Snapchat performed poorly, then all social media stocks may endure the same fate. Those short-term drops offered buying opportunities for long-term Meta investors. Even though investors believed Meta and Snap would release similar earnings reports, the companies are completely different. Meta has rapidly expanded its profit margins and tripled its fourth-quarter profits year over year. Meanwhile, Snapchat is down over the past five years and has decelerating revenue growth and persistent net losses. Investors can spot buying opportunities within sector-specific and broad stock market corrections. As indexes fall, many quality stocks become available at a discount. Stock Market Corrections Are Healthy Stock market corrections keep investors in check. A lack of corrections can leave the stock market vulnerable to a crash because corrections pull back valuations to more reasonable levels. A lack of corrections can also create a false sense of invincibility and cause investors to lose significant money. Many investors chased questionable electric vehicle stocks like Nikola Corp. (NKLA) and Workhorse Group Inc. (WKHS) in 2020 as Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock continued to rev higher. Both of these corporations are now penny stocks that trade 99% below their all-time highs. Can a Correction Turn Into a Crash? All stock market crashes start out as corrections. This realization can prompt some investors to panic, but corrections are far more frequent than crashes. Most corrections reach their bottom after a few months, before the stock market regains momentum. Investors should consider what broader events have triggered the correction. Some causes for a correction are more likely to turn into a crash than others. "Sometimes, it can be events like war, the COVID pandemic, or events that have global repercussions. Stocks lose value significantly and quickly. That reminds us of the saying, 'Markets go up like an escalator but come down like a high-speed elevator,'" Ven says. Even then, the stock market has a history of recovering for long-term investors. The pandemic quickly turned from a correction to a crash as investors came to grips with how lockdowns would affect global commerce. The stock market only began its recovery once the Federal Reserve dramatically eased its monetary policy and initiated a historic economic stimulus program. How to Plan for a Stock Market Correction A buy-and-hold strategy can get you through most corrections. Tolomay offers historical context that demonstrates how this straightforward approach has worked for long-term investors: "Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an intra-year decline of -14%, on average. During that same time, the average calendar-year return has been 10%. In 2023, for example, the S&P 500 was off -10% from July 31 to Oct. 27 but finished the year up by 24%." Investors should assess their risk tolerance and where they are in their financial journeys. People who are approaching retirement usually want less volatility in their portfolios. These investors may want to lean toward mature blue-chip dividend stocks with reasonable valuations and high yields. These stocks can offer solid cash flow that can cover some of your living expenses. Younger investors have more time to ride out market corrections and volatility. These investors can afford to put money into growth-oriented investments and wait for them to recover after they take a tumble. While age is a factor, investors must consider their patience and ability to stay even-keeled during market setbacks. If you are prone to selling off investments if they go down, a conservative portfolio may make more sense for you. Not All Corrections Offer Buying Opportunities The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have reliably recovered from each of their corrections. These indexes reflect the broader performance of the most established corporations. However, investors should dig deeper into an individual stock or fund before assuming that a correction offers a good buying opportunity. Some stocks enter corrections due to significant cracks in their growth narratives. Etsy Inc. (ETSY) shined during the pandemic and had a few good years before the lockdown brought more demand to the company's online marketplace. However, gross merchandise sales growth began to slip and recently decreased year over year. Some corporations can turn things around after reporting bad earnings. Meta Platforms did just that in 2023 after a year to forget in 2022. Investors should assess whether the growth opportunities remain intact for an individual stock before buying shares. A stock can lose value due to a misunderstanding or because of a factor that isn't important for the investment's long-term viability. Investors should take the same measures for a fund that doesn't follow an established index like the S&P 500. Looking at a fund's top 10 positions can tell you a lot about its portfolio diversification and risk level. Some funds that perform well over several years rely on speculative growth stocks that can quickly collapse during broad stock market corrections. The Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) is a recent example of this trend. The fund outperformed its peers for many years but is down by roughly 70% from its all-time high. Stay Focused on Your Long-Term Goals Individual stocks and funds perform differently during broad market corrections based on their opportunities and holdings. While outliers exist, the stock market has historically recovered from corrections. Stock market corrections shouldn't rattle long-term investors. The more time you stay invested in the stock market, the more you will experience corrections. Investors can adjust their portfolios and focus on low-risk assets to minimize their volatility. Corrections can present tremendous long-term buying opportunities among reliable funds and stocks. Some investors get excited about corrections because it gives them the opportunity to lower the cost basis of their favorite stocks and funds. MY COMMENT YES....corrections are part of the NORMAL markets. They happen all the time....often once or twice a year. Most corrections last from 1-6 months....although it is possible for them to last longer. If you are going to be a stock market investor you have to learn to just ignore corrections and wait them out. Trying to miss them by trading in and out of the markets is a sure way to lose money. If you are doing regular contributions to an account and/or reinvesting dividends and capital gains....consider corrections as time to add cheaper shares. Corrections contribute to the long term compounding of investor holdings in this way. NO.....a correction is NOT a bear market or a crash....it is simply a pull back of 10% to 20% in a particular stock or a particular Index or the markets in general. As you go through a correction consider your personal reaction....are you in a panic? If so, you might want to reconsider your holdings and your risk tolerance.
The final big one today. Citigroup earnings are out – Here are the numbers https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/citigroup-c-earnings-q1-2024.html MY COMMENT Very skimpy numbers here.....but what there is looks like a clear BEAT.
EXACTLY. Into Perspective: March’s Inflation Uptick Investors are still fighting the last war. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...tary/into-perspective-marchs-inflation-uptick (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Every now and then, the stock market does something that seems to confirm whatever narratives—usually fearful—have surrounded it for months. Usually it is just short-term volatility, meaningless noise, but you wouldn’t know that from the mountain of articles reading into it. The latest example came Wednesday, when March’s inflation report showed the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated unexpectedly, allegedly ending June rate cut hopes. The S&P 500 dropped over -1.0% intraday before recovering a bit to close down -0.9%, fueling talk of higher-for-longer rates being bad news for investors. We aren’t in the business of predicting short-term volatility, and it is possible a pullback is at hand. Sentiment can cause sharp swings any time, for any or no reason. But we doubt this weighs for long. In our view, this is a case of investors fighting the last war, not actual deterioration in the bull market’s fundamental drivers. The headline inflation rate ticked up from 3.2% y/y in February to 3.5%, outstripping expectations for 3.4%.[ii] The acceleration came primarily from energy costs, which snapped a year of deflationary readings to rise 2.1% y/y.[iii] Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 3.8% y/y as deeper deflation in goods prices offset a small acceleration in services.[iv] And in longer-term context, it is hard to see much cause for alarm in the headline increase. As Exhibit 1 shows, CPI has been rangebound since last summer. Prior jumps didn’t presage sustained increases, and conditions don’t support one now. Not with broad M4 money supply basically stalled after contracting for over a year straight (and still contracting if you exclude US Treasurys from the calculation).[v] Exhibit 1: Rangebound Inflation Source: FactSet, as of 4/10/2024. As Nobel laureate Milton Friedman often preached, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon—too much money chasing too few goods and services. Monetary excess played a big role in 2022’s inflation spike, colliding with supply chain issues and the energy and commodity price spike that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That excess has worked its way out of the system, partly through subsequent monetary contraction and partly through the economic growth that helped absorb it. Meanwhile, supply chains improved and China reopened from its long lockdowns, improving global goods supply. There is a lot of talk now about higher commodity prices renewing inflation risk, but this ignores that commodity prices are up on anticipation of faster growth and factory builds across Emerging Markets. This adds to the world’s productive capacity, which is disinflationary. These are basic concepts, but investors have a hard time seeing it, probably because sentiment is getting in the way. In investing, there is a time-honored tradition of fighting the last war—that is, being on high alert for a repeat of whatever purportedly caused the prior bear market. After the 2007 – 2009 global financial crisis, investors went ghost-hunting for a subprime mortgage repeat in municipal debt, Dubai’s debt and eventually the eurozone periphery. After the COVID lockdown bear market in 2020, all attention went to variants and reimposed restrictions. And now, a year and a half from a bear market that fell on inflation and rate hike fears—along with many others—we have outsized scrutiny on prices and rates. This is normal investor behavior, and its manifestation today is a sign there is still a big wall of worry for stocks to climb despite sentiment’s improvement year to date. We think this climb is likely to happen as markets continue weighing fundamentals looking 3 – 30 or so months out. Earnings are growing, and US companies have a lot of bandwidth for new investments after nearly two years of cutbacks in anticipation of a recession that never arrived. Business investment is also rising in the UK and Japan, where—along with the eurozone—green shoots are sprouting. Gross margins globally are fat enough that businesses can handle slightly higher input costs without jacking up prices anew, and wage growth—a trailing inflation indicator—continues helping households regain purchasing power. The pump is primed for the global economy to continue surprising to the upside. Even if the Fed doesn’t cut as swiftly as some hoped! Stocks don’t depend on the Fed slashing rates. We know this, because the entirety of this bull market accompanied either rate hikes or high rates. US GDP accelerated in a high-rate environment in 2023’s second half, and now growth appears to be broadening out to manufacturing against the high-rate backdrop. Earnings are recovering amid high rates. Investment is picking up alongside high rates. Society may not like high rates, but it has adapted and remembered how to grow an economy despite them—much as it did throughout the mid-to-late 20th century. Which is another thing: The mass perception of interest rates seems skewed by the anomaly that was the 2010s. Longer-term, rates are actually pretty darned normal, if not low. Exhibit 2: An Antidote to Interest Rate Recency Bias Source: FactSet, as of 4/1/2024. Fed-funds target rate, 1/8/1971 – 3/28/2024. None of this precludes further volatility, of course. As Ben Graham taught, markets may weigh fundamentals in the long run, but in the short term they act like voting machines, swinging on sentiment. People have strong feelings about inflation and rates, and those feelings might register in markets a while longer. But we doubt it is anything more than the typical volatility that starts and ends without warning. Look back at Exhibit 1. Inflation is in a much tighter range than in 2022, and the Fed’s preferred measure (the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index) is even closer to its target of 2.0% y/y over time. Stocks are pretty good at pricing in small wiggles and kerfuffles and moving on." MY COMMENT Climbing, climbing, climbing,.....that old wall of worry. Also climbing the parallel walls of stupidity, fear-mongering, delusion, fallacy, and foolishness. I really dont care AT ALL about all the constant weekly economic announcements and all the FED blather. Over the long term they are just market BS with no real impact on stocks and funds.
Here is more info for Citi. Citigroup tops estimates for first-quarter revenue, helped by trading results https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/citigroup-c-earnings-q1-2024.html MY COMMENT Still a BEAT.
My view is that ALL the bank earnings came in as nicely as possible. I consider ALL of them BEATS in general. Of course now the nit-picking and parsing and slicing and dicing will happen as usual. And also as usual.....it will be the negative that is jumped on and emphasized to the extreme. I dont own any of the banks. I dont like banks and never invest in them. We also know from the past that the bank earnings are news for a few days.....but....are NOT indicators for the general earnings that will follow. The worst thing about bank earnings is that we have to hear Jamie Dimon spouting all of his manipulative and self-serving BS about the general economy.
Here is exactly what I mean......DUH. Jamie Dimon warns that inflation, wars and Fed policy pose major threats ahead https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/jam...-and-fed-policy-pose-major-threats-ahead.html "Key Points JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Friday that “persistent” inflation, “terrible wars and violence” and the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions threaten an otherwise positive economic backdrop. “Looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces,” the head of the the largest U.S. bank by assets said in announcing first-quarter earnings results." MY COMMENT Just generalized corporate...banking...blather. Nothing new, nothing that everyone else does not already know. Yet the media hangs on every word....from on high. A joke. IGNORE it all.
Here we are now in the peak selling season for real estate. it is still a very challenging market for buyers with mortgage rates at or over 7% and low inventory. There is not a lot of incentive for owners to list low mortgage homes. In my little area of 4200 homes....we now have 48 active listings. Back a few years ago in the more normal times....we would have between 100 and 150 active listings. The lowest price to move into this area of 4200 homes......$650,000.
A shocking surprise? Not really....just more of the same....as usual. Turns Out the IRS Is After You, After All https://www.heritage.org/taxes/commentary/turns-out-the-irs-after-you-after-all (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "When it was first revealed that the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” provided funding for 87,000 new IRS agents, Biden administration officials told Americans not to worry. They promised at every turn that these agents would only be set upon those earning over $400,000 a year. But the Act has done nothing to reduce inflation, so it’s hardly surprisingly to learn now that an army of IRS agents has the middle class in its crosshairs. In a new report, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration admitted that the Treasury would not be able to accurately distinguish whether many taxpayers are above or below President Joe Biden’s $400,000 threshold. When the Inspector General recommended addressing this shortcoming, the IRS declined to do so, claiming it needs to have the “agility” to target anyone. In fact, the IRS went so far as to reject any threshold for defining “high-income taxpayers,” calling such figures “static and overly prescriptive.” That’s a fancy way of saying that the opponents of the Inflation Reduction Act were right all along: an army of IRS agents is coming for the middle class. This directly violates President Joe Biden’s oft-repeated pledge that he would not raise taxes, nor increase audits, on those earning less than $400,000 a year. That broken promise comes as no surprise. Earlier this year, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was cornered into admitting that 90 percent of new audits would affect those earning less than $400,000. The new IG report confirms what Yellen was forced under oath to admit, and what many in Congress knew when they voted for the Inflation Reduction Act. Countless middle-class Americans will now live in fear of an audit from Ms. Yellen’s henchmen, despite the hollow assurances of Mr. Biden. And the hackneyed line from the left that only tax cheats should be fearful of an audit is preposterous. The tax code is so startlingly large and complex, that no one person understands the entirety of it. When Money magazine gave a family’s finances to 46 professional tax preparers, they received back 46 different tax returns. Yet that’s the predictable result of a tax code 4.1 million words in length. That’s longer than the Bible, War and Peace, the complete works of Shakespeare, and the entire Harry Potter series—combined. Even those with the best of intentions are highly likely to make mistakes on their taxes because the system is obscenely complex. That’s why Americans spend 6.5 billion manhours and $364 billion annually trying to comply with tax law. Yet countless mistakes are still made. The IRS accused a friend of mine of making one such mistake and handed him a bill for tens of thousands of dollars in allegedly unpaid taxes, interest, and fines. He took this information to his tax accountant, who informed my friend that he was 100 percent in the right and the IRS agents were wrong. But his tax attorney said to just pay the bill because it would be less expensive than pursuing litigation. On principle, my friend decided to take the IRS to court, and he won. In fact, the IRS owed him a small refund, but the fight had cost him over $100,000. Virtually no Americans have that kind of money lying around to fight the IRS. This leaves the middle class at a severe disadvantage because they cannot match the hordes of accountants and attorneys at the beck and call of the Biden administration. The next couple of years will likely be perilous for the middle class. Even keeping track of all your receipts might not be enough to keep the auditors satisfied. Absent your own army of tax professions, your best defense against the IRS at this point might be to pray." MY COMMENT Bottom line I dont care who is in power....you can NEVER trust the IRS. The only good news is that I saw in some article lately that they had only actually hired less than 5000 of the autohrized and much publisized 87,000 new agents. The other good news.......they are totally incompetent.
I do not recommend buying gold or silver as an investment. It just sits there....it does not compound. It is just a speculative commodity. I usually dont pay any attention to it....but noticed today that silver is now way up over the past few months to.....$29.15 per oz. Gold is way up at.....$2414 per oz. I would not jump on this moving train. It might seem tempting.....but if you have money that you are considering putting in (I will not use the term "investing") gold or silver......If it was me I would put it in the SP500 Index instead......an actual investment
About what I expected for the open today. Much better than the pre-market futures but all the primary Indexes are in the red at this moment. The markets dont really care much about the bank earnings.....and....there is no doubt some profit taking from the gains yesterday. I will sit and watch and perhaps we will see some reality seep into the markets as the day progresses.
I will admit.........it was pretty funny watching Jamie Dimon tank his own company after they put up pretty good earnings in general.
I actually think we can thank the US GOVERNMENT for tanking the markets today. They are pushing the story-line that Iran is going to attack Israel over the next couple of days.....the weekend. As a result many people that are short term money or traders are pulling out for the weekend.
Good to be done with this crazy week. I ended today with a good loss....every stock was red except for one. That one was APPLE. I also got beat by the SP500 today by a small amount......0.11%.
A losing week all the way across all the averages this week. DOW year to date +0.71% DOW five days (-2.40%) SP500 year to date +8.02% SP500 five days (-1.69%) NASDAQ 100 year to date +8.86% NASDAQ 100 five days (-0.74%) NASDAQ year to date +9.54% NASDAQ five days (-0.68%0 RUSSELL year to date (-0.47%) RUSSELL five days (-3.45%) I managed to stay right on FLAT for the week in spite of the down averages. At the close today my entire account was year to date....+21.71%. Last week at the close on Friday my entire account was at year to at......+21.73% Basically I am unchanged this week if I ignore that little 0.02% difference. I will take it. Being unchanged on a week when all the Indexes were down gives me a leg up going forward.
GRRR:- reverse split 10 -1 on Mon. 4/15/24. Will open at $6.15. Analysts with all Buy ratings. Just had their best quarter with $20M profit. Many deals in the pipeline!
