The Long Term Investor

That may be true...but....you are talking about short term. The data is based on LONG TERM investing.

 

Keep up the good work.....Lori. Good to have you as part of this community.

 

I dont invest according to....superstition.

Tell ‘Sell in May’ to Go Away
And to never come back, whether at St. Leger Day or whenever.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/tell-sell-in-may-to-go-away

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Between Mothers’ Day, the Kentucky Derby, the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Indy 500 and the Monaco Grand Prix, there are a lot of great traditions in May. Alas, there is also a more dubious one: the annual admonitions to sell stocks and stay away until Halloween. Or, as the saying officially goes, Sell in May and go away and don’t come back until St. Leger Day, which is a mid-September British horserace. These days, most pundits argue the endpoint is October 31, tied to the April 30 through Halloween period being the calendar’s weakest rolling 6-month stretch. In our view, it is all trivia mixed with silliness. Calendars don’t predict.

Sell in May might seem extra tempting this year, what with stocks’ springtime volatility. After the best Q1 in five years, the S&P 500 has taken a step back in April alongside global markets.

Yet this is a pretty powerful demonstration of the myth’s shallowness: Stocks don’t run on schedules. Sometimes pullbacks happen in summer. Sometimes they happen later. And sometimes they happen earlier, presaging a summertime rebound. Short-term moves run on sentiment, and sentiment is fickle and unpredictable. Markets can react to any old thing, at any old time, for any old or even no reason. But if you sell in May because stocks wobbled in April and you are feeling nervous, you risk locking in those declines and missing the rebound that follows. We often make the point that you can’t buy past returns—well, you can’t avoid past volatility, either.

But also, stocks’ performance history doesn’t back up Sell in May once you dive in. Consider Exhibit 1, which shows the S&P 500’s average total returns by month since good data begin in 1926.

Exhibit 1: Monthly Returns at a Glance


Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 4/29/2024. S&P 500 total returns, monthly (average), 12/31/1925 – 12/31/2023.

Yes, as the highlighted row shows, May has the second-weakest returns, beating only September (more on that later this summer, natch). But that second-weakest return is still positive, and returns in the month are overall positive much more often than not—63 out of 98 Mays since 1926, to be exact. That is a 64.3% frequency of positivity, which is a shade higher than the 62.9% frequency of gains in all months since then.

Moreover, summer returns have historically been quite nice. July is the calendar year’s best month! Not that this is predictive, either, but one would think a seasonal saw would at least consider that it is encouraging people to sit out the strongest month on the calendar, if only for the sake of intellectual consistency.

Slicing this by 6-month returns to account for the full Sell in May window doesn’t make the case for sitting out stronger. Exhibit 2 shows this, highlighting the Sell in May window’s returns.

Exhibit 2: Rolling 6-Month Returns at a Glance


Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 4/29/2024. S&P 500 total returns, trailing 6-month (average), 6/30/1926 – 12/31/2023.

Yes, it is the weakest of the calendar’s rolling 6-month spans. But it is still positive. We aren’t aware of anyone who met their long-term financial goals by routinely sitting out up markets because they weren’t up as much as other arbitrary stretches. The frequency of positivity is even higher here, at 71 of 98 years—72.4%.[ii] This, too, is a mite more often than the 71.5% frequency of positivity in all rolling 6-month stretches since 1926.[iii] Nothing here shouts stay away!

Seasonal sayings sound fun, especially when they rhyme. And, volatile markets mean there will be enough negative stretches to give at least the appearance of a half kernel of truth. But they don’t hold up. Calendars aren’t market drivers.

Even if seasonality ever worked a lot of the time, it would get priced in so quickly that it would stop. People would get out in April to front-run Sell in May. Then in March. Then February. Round and round and round, chasing their tails. And all for periods so short as to be utterly meaningless when you consider that enduring short-term volatility isn’t some massive return headwind. Rather, it is the price we all pay for stocks’ stellar long-term returns. Over time, all the noise evens out into a big, uneven upward-sloping line.

If you can identify a bear market early enough, exiting markets can make sense—if you can identify the eventual rebound in time to reinvest and reap the benefit. But seasonality will tell you nothing on this front. Bear markets happen for fundamental reasons—not random chance. They start one of two ways: when euphoric markets have finished climbing the wall of worry and are primed to overlook a deteriorating backdrop, or when some huge, shocking, unseen negative wallops them before the climb is done. We don’t see either today.

Sentiment, though warmer than a year ago, is hardly euphoric. Meanwhile, the fears unsettling people lately—geopolitics, inflation and Fed chatter—are stale and reheated several times over. No surprise power here, just a nice wall of worry for stocks to climb as fears fade."

MY COMMENT

Thank goodness in the "modern era" we dont hear this sell in May "stuff" much anymore. the media drags it out once in a while when they have nothing else to talk about. BUT...in the end I dont think most people pay any attention to this MYTH anymore.

For long term investors is is simply an old JOKE......and....a return killer.

 

The market today just after the open.

US stocks set to snap 5-month win streak with Fed, Amazon in focus

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...treak-with-fed-amazon-in-focus-133100524.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks dipped lower on Tuesday as new labor data came in hotter than expected while investors await the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, along with earnings from Amazon (AMZN).

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) each slipped roughly 0.2% after closing with small gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.6% while the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) jumped about 4 basis points to trade near 4.66%.

According to new data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics early Tuesday, the employment cost index, which measures compensation and benefits, increased 1.2% from December to March — the highest increase in a year — after rising 0.9% at the end of 2023.

Wages and salaries increased 1.1% over that same three-month period while benefit costs also increased 1.1%. The data adds to ongoing concerns that persistently high wages are keeping inflation levels elevated.

Stocks are on track to post their worst month of 2024, as a brutal mid-April stretch means the major indexes are set to end the month with losses. But investors are looking to continue making headway on a rebound that has pervaded over the last week.

Thus far, anticipation over the Fed's next move is battling for attention with better-than-expected quarterly results, with surprises from the likes of Paramount (PARA) and Tesla (TSLA) playing their part.

Investors are bracing for policymakers to hold interest rates at historically elevated levels at the Fed's two-day meeting, set to start on Tuesday. The prospect of rate cuts has retreated dramatically since the start of the year, helping drive up Treasury yields — a familiar systemic problem for stocks.

Amazon's results after the bell will be closely watched after Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) stellar earnings lifted hopes for a "Magnificent Seven" boost this season. So far, Big Tech results have both impressed Wall Street and revealed its impatience with heavy AI spending.

Highlights on the early earnings docket are Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD), with AMD (AMD) and Starbucks (SBUX) also coming after the markets close."

MY COMMENT

BASICALLY....a nothing day till after the close. Earnings will be the REAL action today after the market is done for the day.

 

Lean and mean is a good thing in business.

Musk lays off Tesla senior executives in fresh job cuts, The Information reports

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/musk-lays-off-tesla-senior-executives-in-fresh-job-cuts-report.html

“Hopefully these actions are making it clear that we need to be absolutely hard core about headcount and cost reduction,” Musk wrote in the email, the report said. “While some on exec staff are taking this seriously, most are not yet doing so."

MY COMMENT

As usual I totally agree with what MUSK is doing.

 

The Ten Year yield is up a little bit today. As usual lately......the markets continue to be caught up in their delusional captivity to the Ten Year yield.

Never mind that yields are in the historic low range.....facts....dont matter anymore in investing. Most writers and commentators are simply caught up in generating clicks. At least we have generated a whole new bunch of.....market myths.....in the past 5-10 years.

 

As has been typical lately....that is about it for today. NOTHING going on. The media is full of the usual headlines.....mostly meaningless.

As to the post above:

The stock market has a 'systemic problem'

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-stock-market-has-a-systemic-problem-170544537.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Stocks are facing a familiar problem.

Even as earnings for the first quarter come in better than expected, the market has struggled to climb higher consistently as rising Treasury yields weigh on sentiment for equities, reminding investors of the period in 2023 when higher yields sent stocks crashing.

"Higher rates are now a systemic problem for equities," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz wrote in a weekly note to clients on Friday.

Kantrowitz pointed to the market action over the last month, which could be simplified to a basic formula: When Treasury yields have risen, stocks have fallen. And recently, yields have soared. The 10-year Treasury yield is up more than 40 basis points to 4.63% since the start of April, its highest level since November 2023. In that time, the S&P 500 has fallen about 3%.

"At this point it's really hard to see equities going up without rates going down," Kantrowitz said in a video breakdown of his research distributed to clients.

The same action could be seen in the two-year Treasury yield, where Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel has flagged 5% as the key technical level that weighed on stocks during last year's bond-driven sell-off. Notably, stocks' recent decline from their highs throughout April came as the two-year hit 5%. On Monday, the two-year sat at 4.98%.

The rise in yields has come as investors have heavily scaled back their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Market expectations have shifted from nearly seven cuts to around just one in 2024, per Bloomberg data. And Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer Mike Wilson wrote in a research note on Sunday this upside pressure in yields is likely to remain unless Fed Chair Jerome Powell "surprises on the dovish side" during his press conference on Wednesday.

Given recent hot inflation readings, economists don't expect that to be the case when Powell speaks.

"We expect the main message from the press conference to be that policy needs more time to work," Bank of America US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a research note previewing the event. "Powell should indicate the next move is still likely to be a rate cut, but the Fed will be in wait-and-see mode until it achieves confidence it desires on inflation."

This would be a reiteration of prior comments from Powell, which brought little relief to the bond market.

Rising yields have also helped explain why the S&P is down nearly 3% this month despite a better-than-expected first quarter earnings season thus far. S&P 500 companies have topped earnings estimates by an average of 9% this quarter, the highest since 2021 per Wilson, but stock price reactions have been "muted."

"We think this is attributable to the pressure on valuations from higher rates," Wilson wrote.

And strategists don't see this trend changing in the near term.

"While 'higher for longer' rates are not necessarily an insurmountable obstacle for stocks, certain parts of the equity market are more likely to lag if rates keep climbing," Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin said. "Most notably, stocks with weak balance sheets have generally struggled.""

MY COMMENT

The market mass psychosis continues with interest rates.

The HUGE positive of the FED no longer raising rates is being totally ignored. Companies like BIG TECH that have massive cash on hand are stupidly touted as being interest rate sensitive......which creates a self fulfilling prophesy. GREAT fundamental earnings data is ignored and/or given no consideration as has been the case for years now.

Meanwhile the majority of investors....the silent majority, long term investors,....just sit and plug away doing nothing as usual.

 

I consider this a good indicator for the continuation of the current BULL MARKET.

US consumer confidence hits lowest level since July 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-c...s-lowest-level-since-july-2022-151304354.html

 

Well a nice SOLID LOSS for me today. Every stock in the red. BUT...I only lost out to the SP500 by 0.21%. I expected it to be a lot worse before I looked.

NOW....for what really counts today....AMZN and SMCI earnings.

 

AND....ask and you will receive...here they are.

Amazon earnings are out — here are the numbers

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2024.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

Amazon reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.

• Earnings per share: 98 cents. That may not compare with the 83 cents per share expected by LSEG
• Revenue: $143.3 billion. That may not compare with the $142.5 billion expected by LSEG

Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report:

• Amazon Web Services: $24.5 billion in revenue, according to StreetAccount
• Advertising: $11.7 billion in revenue, according to StreetAccount

Analysts are expecting Amazon to report revenue growth of 12%, which would mark a fourth straight quarter of expansion in the low double digits and a slight acceleration from a year earlier.

Earnings are growing much faster, thanks to widespread cost-cutting, tweaks to Amazon’s fulfillment operations and the stabilizing of cloud spending. Operating income of $11.2 billion is expected, according to StreetAccount, up over 130% from a year earlier.

Under CEO Andy Jassy, Amazon has become more disciplined in its spending, while growing profitable services like advertising, cloud computing, Prime memberships and its third-party marketplace.

The company has laid off more than 27,000 employees since late 2022, with the cuts bleeding into 2024. During the first quarter, Amazon let go hundreds of staffers in its health and AWS businesses.

Following a rough 2021 and 2022, Amazon shares soared 75% last year, and have gained 19% year to date, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite, which is up about 6.5%.

Analysts expect Amazon to report a 12% increase in AWS revenue. That’s a slight deceleration from the previous quarter, when revenue grew 13%, but a notable uptick from the first quarter of 2023, when sales expanded just 9%.

Executives said in February they expect increasing demand for generative artificial intelligence technology to give AWS a boost. Jassy echoed that sentiment in his annual letter to shareholders released earlier this month.

Advertising, another high-margin business, will also be a key area to watch, with revenue projected to grow more than 23% year over year to $11.7 billion. Digital ad peers Meta, Google and Snap all reported earnings last week that surpassed analysts expectations.

Wedbush analysts expect to see strong growth in Amazon’s ad business in the first quarter, and “healthy spending intent for the remainder of 2024,” they wrote in a note to clients last week.

“We think the opportunity for Amazon is still early and expect multiyear growth above the broader digital ad market, supported by continued expansion of off-platform advertising opportunities, ongoing monetization of Prime Video ads, emerging demand from non-endemic advertisers, and core on-platform sponsored product growth supported by the secular transition to e-commerce,” Wedbush analysts wrote. They have an outperform rating on Amazon’s shares.

Wall Street will also be watching to see if Amazon takes a page from its tech peers in announcing its first-ever dividend. Google parent Alphabet last week issued its first dividend alongside its quarterly results, while Meta authorized its first-ever dividend in February.

Amazon ended 2023 with $73.4 billion in cash and equivalents.

The company will discuss the results on a conference call with investors at 5:30 p.m. ET."

MY COMMENT

Looks like these numbers were just pasted onto an old pre-earnings article. But....here they are.

 

HERE is a much better article.

Amazon beats on profit and revenue, with growth of 13%

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2024.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• Amazon shares rose in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings.

Amazon shares rose more than 5% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings.

Here’s how the company did:

• Earnings per share: 98 cents vs. 83 cents expected by LSEG
• Revenue: $143.3 billion vs. $142.5 billion expected by LSEG

Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report:

• Amazon Web Services: $25 billion vs. $24.5 billion in revenue, according to StreetAccount
• Advertising: $11.8 billion vs. 11.7 billion in revenue, according to StreetAccount

This story is developing. Check back for updates."

MY COMMENT

Looks like a clear BEAT. The BEATs continue as needed. this reporting is still very skimpy. I assume those that are seeing all the numbers must like them since the stock is up in after hours trading.

MORE HERE:

Amazon stock pops after earnings beat

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-stock-pops-after-earnings-beat-201113306.html

Amazon’s advertising revenue jumps 24% in first quarter


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/amazons-advertising-revenue-jumps-24percent-in-first-quarter.html

Amazon’s cloud margin widens on accelerating revenue growth


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/aws-q1-earnings-report-2024.html

 

As to SMCI.


Super Micro Computers EPS $6.65 vs $5.78 estimate. Revenues $3.85B vs $3.95B estimate

https://www.forexlive.com/news/supe...mate-revenues-385b-vs-395b-estimate-20240430/

"Super Micro Computers announced earnings-per-share higher than expectations but on less than expected revenues. Their guidance was stronger than expected.

• Revenues USD 3.850 million vs.estimate USD 3.95 million
• Q3 adjusted EPS USD $6.65 vs. estimate USD $5.74
• Q3 adjusted gross margin 15.6%
• Q3 gross margin 15.5%

GUIDANCE

• EPS $7.62 – $8.42 versus expected $6.97.
• Net sales expected at $5.1 billion – $5.5 billion versus expected $4.73 billion

Super Micro Computers shares are trading higher and lower after the release and currently trades down -1.61% at $845 in volatile trading.

MY COMMENT

I will call this a BEAT. Especially the good guidance. BUT....the short term market will simply do what it wants to do.



Tags

 

Here is a bit more.
Super Micro's stock turns around
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/super-micro-earnings-stock-q3-guidance-forecast-ai?mod=bnbh

As to guidance:

"The company reported March-quarter revenue of $3.85 billion, up from $1.28 billion a year before. Analysts were expecting $3.96 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $6.65, up from $1.63 a year prior. The FactSet consensus was for $5.74.

On a GAAP basis, Super Micro brought in net income of $402 million, or $6.56 a share, compared with $86 million, or 1.53 a share, a year earlier.

Super Micro's outlook calls for $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion in revenue, while the FactSet consensus was for $4.86 billion.

Shares were up about 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday."

MY COMMENT

We will find out what the markets really think tomorrow. the guidance based after hours trading has been very erratic....up and down.

 

Welcome to the markets....you get screwed for a good BEAT and conservative guidance ( a good thing if you are a CEO)....and....you get screwed with a basic beat and good guidance.

In other words....usually....EVERYONE gets screwed. For some reason typing this reminded me of the song "Rainey Day Women".

"Well, they'll stone ya when you're trying to be so good,
They'll stone ya just like they said they would.
They'll stone ya when you're tryin' to go home.
Then they'll stone ya when you're there all alone.
But I would not feel so all alone,
Everybody must get stoned.

Well, they'll stone ya when you're walkin' 'long the street.
They'll stone ya when you're tryin' to keep your seat.
They'll stone ya when you're walkin' on the floor.
They'll stone ya when you're walkin' to the door.
But I would not feel so all alone,
Everybody must get stoned.

They'll stone ya when you're at the breakfast table.
They'll stone ya when you are young and able.
They'll stone ya when you're tryin' to make a buck.
They'll stone ya and then they'll say, "good luck."
Tell ya what, I would not feel so all alone,
Everybody must get stoned.

Well, they'll stone you and say that it's the end.
Then they'll stone you and then they'll come back again.
They'll stone you when you're riding in your car.
They'll stone you when you're playing your guitar.
Yes, but I would not feel so all alone,
Everybody must get stoned."

OH YES....the article:

Super Micro forecasts quarterly revenue above estimates as AI powers server demand

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-200957932.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"(Reuters) -Super Micro Computer forecast fourth-quarter revenue above estimates on Tuesday as it expects continued demand for its servers used in artificial intelligence applications.

Super Micro's in-house liquid cooling solutions for servers have helped it get products to the market quicker than its competitors, who rely partly on third-party vendors.

Its close relations with chip giants Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, whose headquarters are less than 10 miles from Super Micro's, help it receive early samples of chips to check prototypes, giving it further advantage over rivals.

Super Micro's stock, which has nearly tripled so far this year, was added to the S&P 500 index last month.

The company expects fourth-quarter revenue between $5.1 billion and $5.5 billion, compared with estimates of $4.89 billion, according to LSEG data.

Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 stood at $3.85 billion, compared with estimates of $3.95 billion, according to LSEG data.

The company posted a net income of $402.5 million in the third quarter, compared with $85.9 million a year ago.

Gross margin for the three-month period was 15.5%, compared with 17.6%, a year ago, in line with analyst expectations.

Shares of the San Jose, California-based company were down 3% in volatile trading after the bell.

MY COMMENT

That is a HUGE jump in NET INCOME.

 

I like the tone of this headline and article a bit more.

Super Micro pushes up full-year revenue forecast as it points to strong AI demand

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/super-micro-smci-q3-earnings-report-2024.html

HERE is what I see as the KEY information and the GUTS of the earnings announcement. Of course......no one will care.

"The company’s revenue jumped 200% year over year in the quarter, which ended on March 31, according to a statement. That compared with a 103% increase in the previous quarter. Net income came out to $402.5 million, or $6.56 per share, compared with $85.8 million, or $1.53 per share, in the year-ago quarter.

CEO Charles Liang said in the statement that Super Micro is bumping up its fiscal 2024 revenue guidance to $14.7 billion to $15.1 billion from $14.3 billion to $14.7 billion. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected $14.60 billion."

MY COMMENT

I certainly am satisfied....but...it really does not matter to me. My position is so small after having to CANNIBALIZE IT and sell 2/3 of the shares...... (sorry Joe Biden's Uncle)....to take advantage of the EPIC drop in NVDA recently and add more shares.....so it is not very important to my portfolio.

SMCI and PLTR will continue on for at least a year or two as "junior" positions to give me a feel for both companies.