The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    A very mixed market for me today as well as the markets. I have about half of my stocks down and the others up. Unfortunately NVDA is one that is down....since they have an oversized impact on my portfolio.

    The markets are about the same....DOW is up and the SP500 and NASDAQ are down. We are back to the FED having a way out of line impact on the short term markets.
     
  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    The erratic and skittish market today.

    S&P 500 slips with Fed's Powell in the spotlight

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...h-feds-powell-in-the-spotlight-113149861.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "US stocks were a mixed bag on Wednesday as disappointing earnings dented AI hopes, while investors waited for the Federal Reserve's policy decision and clues to chances for rate cuts.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped about 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was little changed.

    Disappointing after-hours results from chipmaker AMD (AMD) and server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) took the shine off hopes for an AI-fueled boost to the sector. That dragged down their shares and weighed more broadly on chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) in Wednesday's early going.

    At the same time, stocks are coming off a bruising session and their worst month this year, after a sharp rise in US labor costs cemented the idea that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates higher for longer.

    The Fed is widely expected to keep rates at a 23-year high later Wednesday, which means investors are focused on what clues Chair Jerome Powell has to offer to when and whether easing might begin. Given inflation is proving harder to cool than foreseen, many expect Powell to reiterate the message that policymakers can afford to wait for price pressures to ease further before acting.

    Meanwhile, earnings season rolls on, bringing before-the-bell reports from Pfizer (PFE) and Mastercard (MA), among others. CVS (CVS) shares slid more than 18% in morning trading after the healthcare giant cut its 2024 profit forecast.

    Starbucks (SBUX) shares tumbled around 15% in the wake of a bad earnings miss for the coffee chain, which reported late Tuesday."

    MY COMMENT

    Sounds about right for what is going on today.......not that I agree with the markets right now.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    As to SMCI....nothing you can do when a stock delivers ok earnings with a single component miss and good guidance and the traders decide to use the stock as a trading vehicle.

    Super Micro Falters After Missing Market’s High Expectations

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-sales-fail-clear-210049781.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)


    "(Bloomberg) -- Super Micro Computer Inc. plunged as the market opened on Wednesday after the company reported quarterly sales that fell slightly short of estimates. The results disappointed investors who had sky-high expectations that the server maker’s business would benefit from AI-related demand.

    Shares were down 12% to $755.05 in New York as of 9:43 a.m.

    Revenue in the fiscal third quarter, which ended March 31, climbed to $3.85 billion, the company said Tuesday in a statement. That’s just below the consensus estimate of $3.86 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profit, excluding some items, was $6.65 per share, ahead of the $5.58 expected by Wall Street analysts.

    A jump in demand for the equipment that powers artificial intelligence training and applications has helped drive sales at Super Micro, which makes data center servers. Growth rates at the San Jose, California-based company have climbed higher in recent quarters on the back of deals with large corporations and an improving supply of high-powered chips.

    Tuesday’s results weren’t enough to advance the hype. The company has more than tripled in value this year and been added to the S&P 500 Index. Still, the stock had declined about 25% since a peak in March after the company announced a share sale to raise as much as $2 billion.

    Chief Executive Officer Charles Liang said in the statement that the company should “continue gaining market share” as new products are released. A major point of investor caution is whether Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable chipmaker, will cut into Super Micro’s revenue as the semiconductor giant invests in new business lines, wrote George Wang, an analyst at Barclays, in a note before the results were released.

    Revenue in the quarter ending in June will be $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, the company said. Analysts, on average, projected $4.73 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profit, excluding some items, will be as much as $8.42 per share, compared with an average estimate of $6.97."

    MY COMMENT

    A HUGE overreaction to earnings that were mostly positive. I do think the share sale in March was a very strategic MISTAKE by management.
     
    #19783 WXYZ, May 1, 2024
    Last edited: May 1, 2024
  4. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2021
    Messages:
    260
    Likes Received:
    319
    Nice little Chip Sale going on today. Granted everyone here already cleaned out the couch cushions on the one last week. Just sitting here doing nothing per usual. Just fueling up for the next trip up.
     
    WXYZ likes this.
  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    The economic news of the day......that is irrelevant and unreliable government data.

    Private payrolls increased by 192,000 in April, more than expected for resilient labor market

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/adp-jobs-report-april-2024-192000-jobs-added.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Private employers added 192,000 workers in April, better than the Dow Jones consensus outlook for 183,000 though a slight step down from the upwardly revised 208,000 in March, ADP reported.
    • The firm’s wage measure showed annual pay gains up 5% from a year ago, the smallest gain since August 2021.
    Private payrolls increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, indicating there are still plenty of tail winds for the U.S. labor market, according to ADP.

    A separate report indicated that job openings continue on the decline, falling to their lowest level since early 2021.

    The payrolls processing firm reported Wednesday that companies added 192,000 workers for the month, better than the Dow Jones consensus outlook for 183,000 though a slight step down from the upwardly revised 208,000 in March.

    At the same time, the firm’s wage measure showed worker pay up 5% from a year ago, a multiyear low that provided some welcome news against multiple other signs showing inflation has proved more resilient than many economists and policymakers had expected.

    “Hiring was broad-based in April,” ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said. “Only the information sector – telecommunications, media, and information technology – showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021.”

    Job gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality, which posted an increase of 56,000. Other industries showing gains included construction (35,000) and sectors covering trade, transportation and utilities as well as education and health services, both of which saw increases of 26,000.

    Professional and business services contributed 22,000 to the total while financial activities added 16,000.

    Companies with 500 or more workers showed the biggest gain in hiring with 98,000.

    Separately Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that job openings declined again in March, falling to a seasonally adjusted 8.49 million, the lowest level since February 2021.

    The Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed postings fell by more than 1.1 million compared to a year ago, and were at 1.3 openings to available workers. The openings rate as a share of the total labor force fell to 5.1%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points.

    Also, the report indicated a decline in hiring, separations and quits.

    The releases come two days ahead of the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. In recent months, ADP has consistently undershot the Labor Department’s count, though the numbers were fairly close in March. The department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that private payrolls increased by 232,000 for the month versus ADP’s 208,000.

    Friday’s report is expected to show growth of 240,000 in total nonfarm payrolls for April, down from March’s 303,000, according to the consensus Dow Jones estimate."

    MY COMMENT

    The economy continues to roll along. In the old day everyone would be celebrating the great economy, the growth, the GDP and the inflation of about 3.5%.

    Not now....we continue to be driven by the fantasy and unachievable inflation target of 2%. If we do achieve it......the economy will be in the toilet.
     
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    As to SMCI.....I see this as a pretty balanced view.

    Super Micro misses quarterly revenue estimates as inventory up, shares down 14%

    https://www.yahoo.com/tech/super-micro-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-200957444.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "(Reuters) -Artificial intelligence server maker Super Micro Computer reported third-quarter revenue below estimates on Tuesday, hurt by a shortage of some crucial components and questions over the profitability of a new line of servers.

    Shares of Super Micro, which have more than tripled in value so far this year, were down 14% in trading after the bell.

    The San Jose, California-based company, which builds powerful AI servers with chips from Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and others, forecast fourth-quarter revenue above estimates as it expects steady demand.

    But on an earnings call, analysts peppered the company's leaders with questions over spending to support the transition to a new generation of Nvidia chips that require liquid cooling and whether those new servers, which will hit the market later this year, will command high enough prices to push up Super Micro's profit margins.

    The AI server maker was added to the S&P 500 index last month.

    Super Micro is banking on its in-house liquid cooling technology for its servers to gain market share in a competitive industry.

    CEO Charles Liang told analysts the firm had paid a premium to secure supplies to build those liquid-cooled servers quickly in the next few quarters, but said that end customers would pay only a "very minimal premium" for them versus older, air-cooled servers.

    Inventory at the end of the March quarter stood at $4.12 billion, up from $1.45 billion at the fiscal year ended June 30, 2023.

    "It hurts our cash flow, but you know what, it doesn't matter because we need that inventory for Q4 shipments," Chief Financial Officer David Weigand said.

    Super Micro aimed to stay in its 14% to 17% gross margin range over the long term, he added, despite some analysts saying the company's quarterly forecast implied margins below that range.

    The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of between $5.1 billion and $5.5 billion, compared with average analyst estimates of $4.89 billion, according to LSEG data.

    "If not limited by some key component shortages, we could have delivered more
    ," Liang said.

    The company raised its annual sales forecast to a range of $14.7 billion to $15.1 billion from the previously stated $14.3 billion to $14.7 billion.

    Super Micro reported an adjusted profit of $6.65 per share in the first quarter, compared with analysts' estimates of $5.78 per share.

    Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 stood at $3.85 billion, compared with estimates of $3.95 billion, according to LSEG data.

    Gross margin for the three-month period was 15.5%, down from 17.6% a year earlier, in line with analyst expectations."

    MY COMMENT

    I actually like much of the info above. BUT......we are in the middle of a short term panic in this stock today. the next couple of quarters will be key for SMCI going forward and will clarify the questions about the new servers with liquid cooling.

    It will be a good test for management and will give us a good clue as to their (management) ability to guide this company and produce for the shareholders.

    Looks like the money raised in the share sale went into inventory. That would be a very smart move for the money. That is a HUGE jump in inventory from $1.45BILLION up to $4.12BILLION now. Lets hope it will provide some good sales and growth of market share going forward......as well as help to increase or maintain margins.
     
    #19786 WXYZ, May 1, 2024
    Last edited: May 1, 2024
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    At least there is.....some....good news out there today.

    Amazon stock pops after earnings beat

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-stock-pops-after-earnings-beat-201113306.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Amazon (AMZN) reported first quarter earnings that topped Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines, sending shares of the retail giant up around 3% in morning trading Wednesday.

    Powered by a strong showing from its cloud computing segment, Amazon continued a wave of Big Tech results that have mostly wowed Wall Street even as investors turn their focus to the conclusion of the Fed's May policy meeting on Wednesday.

    Net sales rose 13% from the same period last year to $143.3 billion, Amazon reported late Tuesday, topping analyst expectations of $142.6 billion, per Bloomberg data. The beat was driven by a 16% jump in Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue, which Amazon said is on course to generate $100 billion annually.

    The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.98 versus consensus estimates of $0.83.

    Like its competitors Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon is wielding its heft in its cloud computing business to gain an edge in the nascent AI market. AI tools require huge amounts of data and processing power to train and run large language models and their applications, relying on cloud providers to supply vital infrastructure.

    Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with reporters following the report that overall capital expenditures are expected to "meaningfully" increase this year from nearly $50 billion in 2023, driven by higher infrastructure costs to support growth in AWS.

    Amazon is seeing strong demand on the AWS side, with customers signing up for longer deals with bigger commitments, many with generative AI components, he said.

    Advertising was another strong contributor to Q1 revenue growth. The company matched analyst expectations of $11.8 billion, up 24% from the same period last year.

    Even as Amazon dazzled with growth across its businesses, its outlook flashed some signs of a potential pullback in consumer spending.

    "What we are seeing is a bit of a continuation of what we've said in prior quarters. Customers in the US are being very thoughtful about their spend. They look for deals. They trade down," Olsavsky said. "And that trend seems to be continuing into Q2."

    Amazon projected Q2 net sales to come in between $144 billion and $149 billion, which is slightly lower than analyst estimates of $150.2 billion, per Bloomberg data.

    Amazon's report arrived a week after its cloud rival and AI competitor Microsoft posted an impressive quarter, beating expectations on the strength of its cloud computing business. The market cheered even louder for Google parent Alphabet's results, which outperformed on the top and bottom lines and came with an announcement of a new dividend, the latest in a trend among tech giants.

    Amazon, which has positioned itself as an AI leader, is another player in the race to claim market share and launch new consumer services. In March, Amazon increased its investment in the AI startup Anthropic, pouring in another $2.75 billion to bring its investment total to $4 billion.

    Amazon's stock, which joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) in February, is up about 20% for the year."

    MY COMMENT

    A very good quarter for AMZN........but....the real news is what this all means for NVDA. As laid out above AMAZON and the rest of the big cloud providers and big cap tech giants.....are going to be pumping zillions of dollars into the cloud and AI going forward. The ULTIMATE winner from this spending on AI infrastructure.....NVDA.

    Of course NVDA is being pulled down for no reason today....probably an over-reaction to the SMCI earnings. The tail wagging the dog.

    BUT the future is looking HUGE for NVDA with the spending that is going to happen over the next year or two by big tech.

    I LOVE IT. I will gladly put up with the current skittish market conditions and the FED.....to get to the future pay-off.
     
    Lori Myers likes this.
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    Speaking of NVDA.

    Analyst revamps Nvidia stock price target ahead of earnings

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-revamps-nvidia-stock-price-000300513.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Back in March, Nvidia (NVDA) had some big news to share.

    The chipmaker used its GTC event to unveil the Blackwell GPU architecture, which, Nvidia said, will "power a new era of computing."

    The company said Blackwell will enable organizations to build and run real-time generative AI on trillion-parameter large language models at up to 25 times less cost and energy consumption than its predecessor.

    “For three decades, we’ve pursued accelerated computing, with the goal of enabling transformative breakthroughs like deep learning and AI,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s co-founder and CEO, said in a statement.

    Generative AI is the defining technology of our time," Huang added. "Blackwell is the engine to power this new industrial revolution. Working with the most dynamic companies in the world, we will realize the promise of AI for every industry.”

    Nvidia CFO sees 'tipping point'

    Nvidia currently boasts an estimated 80% share of the market for AI-powering processors.

    The company used last month’s GTC event to unveil the newest iteration of its lineup, the Blackwell GPU architecture. This architecture could command a 40% premium to the current range for H100 chips, which go for between $30,000 and $40,000 each.

    Nvidia is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 22. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the company to report $5.60 per share, on revenue of $24.75 billion.

    A year ago, Nvidia posted earnings of $1.09 per share on revenue of $7.19 billion.

    On Feb. 21, Nvidia beat Wall Street's fiscal fourth-quarter targets, delivering its third quarter of triple-digit percentage growth in sales and earnings.

    The world has reached the tipping point of new computing era,” Colette Kress, Nvidia’s Chief Financial Officer told analysts during the company’s earnings call in February. "The $1 trillion installed base of data center infrastructure is rapidly transitioning from general-purpose to accelerated computing."

    Kress said that large cloud providers represented over half of Nvidia’s data center revenue during the quarter, supporting internal workloads and external public cloud customers.

    "We are delighted that supply of Hopper architecture products is improving," she said. "Demand for Hopper remains very strong. We expect our next-generation products to be supply-constrained as demand far exceeds supply."

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , which reported earnings after the market close on April 30, is considered the only real rival to Nvidia's global market dominance. Supply constraints for Nvidia could boost AMD’s newly minted MI300X chip sales.

    Huang, the subject of a recent "60 Minutes" profile, told analysts that overall, "our supply is improving."

    "Our supply chain is just doing an incredible job for us, everything from, of course, the wafers, the packaging, the memories, all of the power regulators, to transceivers and networking and cables and you name it," he said.

    Wall Street analyst cites 'robust demand'

    People may think Nvidia GPUs are like chips, but Huang said the Hopper GPU has 35,000 parts and weighs 70 pounds.

    "People call it an AI supercomputer for good reason," said Huang. "If you ever look in the back of the data center, the systems, the cabling system, is mind-boggling. It is the most dense, complex cabling system for networking the world has ever seen."


    While Nvidia provides guidance one quarter at a time, Huang told analysts, "Fundamentally, the conditions are excellent for continued growth in calendar ’24, to calendar ’25 and beyond."

    "We now have a new type of data center that is about AI generation, an AI generation factory," he said. "And you’ve heard me describe it as AI factories. But basically, it takes raw material, which is data, it transforms it with these AI supercomputers that Nvidia builds, and it turns them into incredibly valuable tokens."

    UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri considered Blackwell when he raised the firm's price target on Nvidia to $1,150 from $1,100 while keeping a buy rating on the shares.

    In the wake of Nvidia's Blackwell launch, the analyst tells investors in a research note that the firm's supply chain work suggests the mix in 2025 may be much richer than the firm expected.

    Despite potential shipment timing concerns, the firm highlighted the continuation of robust demand for Blackwell and Hopper products.

    While Blackwell shipments are anticipated for December, UBS remains bullish on the sustained demand for Hopper, particularly emphasizing its strength ahead of a significant product transition.

    Arcuri said the increased mix assumptions for Blackwell, driven by strong demand for GB200 server racks, indicate a strategic shift for Nvidia towards becoming a full-stack provider."

    MY COMMENT

    IF....the above turns into reality as we move forward.......and.....I do believe this is PROBABILITY at this point.....it will be HUGE for NVDA and shareholders. It will make the current share price look like the bargain of the century.

    BUT....a word of caution....the current market is totally fear ridden and erratic in my view. There is no shortage of negativity. SO.....be smart and be cautious. Dont get carried away....even with a company like NVDA. it is an amazing company.....but it is never a good thing to go crazy with a single holding.

    I like the stock and am betting on it as a.....long term..... double position in my portfolio. BUT...on the flip side this gives it way outsized power to drive the daily UP and DOWN in my portfolio. So if you are considering adding this stock....BE RATIONAL. Even with this company....I would not bet the farm. I would not do that with any stock.
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    NOTHING to do now but wait till 2:00 and the FED.
     
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    We are in the middle of a little 4-5 week time period of market weakness. Of course we are still nowhere near a correction in the SP500. With the current short term skittishness....I expect that what we are going through right now has the potential to last for another month if not longer.

    BUT....I do see the BULL MARKET as alive and well and the medium term direction of the markets still being very POSITIVE. EARNINGS will be the key over the next three quarters to year end.

    EVERY bull market has pauses, times of aimless floating....and...even a correction or two. That is just the reality of short to medium term market activity.

    It is hard being a long term investor living in world of daily, short term, market psychosis. BUT....that is just the way it is.

    You simply have to suffer through the short term.......to get to the pay-off of the long term gains.

    YES.....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
     
  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    Not much mention today.....but....I am looking forward to the AAPL earnings tomorrow.

    This company needs to move forward and disconnect themselves from China. It will not happen overnight. Hopefully....we will see some progress in the earnings tomorrow. This year has not been a HAPPY one for AAPL.

    BUT.....I will continue to own the stock. Once in a while with the big cap tech companies you just have to sit through a bad run. AND....APPLE has a history of going through these little irritating time periods of weakness......so....I will sit and wait for them to turn the corner.

    They are the market whipping boy of the moment.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    Your post made me laugh TireSmoke.

    When I saw NVDA hit $814 and $815 earlier in the day....I was immediately thinking....is there any money available for me to buy?

    BUT....unfortunately I could not find any.
     
    TireSmoke likes this.
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    OK....in the end a BIG NOTHING-BURGER.

    Fed holds interest rates at 23-year high, citing 'lack of further progress' on inflation

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-...-further-progress-on-inflation-180139536.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and reiterated plans to hold rates steady, noting there has been a lack of further progress on inflation returning to its 2% target.

    The central bank voted to keep its benchmark interest rate in a range of 5.25%-5.50%, a 23-year high, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. The fed funds rate has been in this range since July 2023.

    In a policy statement, Fed officials said, "In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress towards the committee’s 2% inflation objective." Officials reiterated more clarity in the outlook for inflation returning to target will be needed before cutting rates.

    "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the statement read.

    In his March press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested it would be appropriate for the Fed to cut rates "at some point" this year.

    In its statement Wednesday, the Fed said "risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year." The FOMC characterized the economic outlook as "uncertain."

    Since issuing forecasts in March that three interest rates of 0.25% each could be warranted this year, Fed officials have publicly muddied the outlook.

    The central bank will release an updated set of economic projections at the conclusion of its policy meeting next month.

    Separately, the Fed on Wednesday announced changes to its program for reducing the size of its balance sheet.

    Beginning June 1, the Fed will slow the pace of Treasurys rolling off its balance sheet on a monthly basis to $25 billion from $60 billion and maintain the cap on mortgage-backed securities rolling off at $35 billion a month. The central bank will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.


    The decision to taper the pace of the balance sheet runoff comes as officials seek to avoid any disruptions to the plumbing of financial markets like that which disrupted markets back in 2019. The Fed has said the balance sheet is separate from setting interest rates.

    The decision to hold rates at current levels comes on the heels of three straight months of higher-than-expected inflation readings.

    The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a clip of 2.8% year over year in March.

    This was the same annual increase seen in February and a tenth of a percent higher than expected. The three-month annualized reading on core PCE jumped to 4.4%, more than double the Fed's target.

    In its statement on Wednesday, the central bank said, "The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective."

    The decision was unanimous."

    MY COMMENT

    NOTHING new here. What did anyone expect? Be happy with the end of rate hikes....that is the good news this year and what is important.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    AND.

    Traders add to bets Fed will cut rates this year, likely in November

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-add-bets-fed-cut-180355820.html

    MY COMMENT

    Due to the election the window for the FED to cut rates before November......before the election is rapidly closing. I would say even now the opportunity to do a rate cut before November is just about over.

    SO......if we are going to get a cut it will likely be in November. They meet immediately following election day. It is certainly possible that when they meet the election winner will NOT be known.
     
    #19795 WXYZ, May 1, 2024
    Last edited: May 1, 2024
  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    We are seeing a late day, post-FED market flip right now. All the big averages now are strongly GREEN.

    Dow jumps 400 points as Powell says the Fed’s next move is unlikely to be a hike: Live updates

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    "The broad market added 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 455 points, or 1.2%."

    Who knows.....at this rate NVDA has a shot to end the day positive. It has now come back by over $30 from the low of the day.

    Poor SMCI has come back over $65 from the low of the day.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    THIS is going to be a HUGE issue for small business.

    Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks, KFC and McDonald’s

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/starbucks-mcdonalds-yum-earnings-show-consumers-pulling-back.html


    "Key Points
    • Starbucks, Pizza Hut and KFC are among the chains that reported same-store sales declines this quarter.
    • McDonald’s said it’s adopting a “street-fighting mentality” to creating value to win over customers.
    • Outliers like Wingstop and Chipotle Mexican Grill show that customers will still order their favorite foods, even if they’re more expensive than they were a year ago."
    MY COMMENT

    We eat out every day. We have noticed a GIANT drop in the number of customers in most of our favorite restaurants......suddenly over the past 1-2 months. One place that was a favorite for us..... just closed and is now gone.

    In addition......I think this is going on in many small businesses that are not in the food business.

    The price increases have now hit maximum pain for customers and business is seeing big time demand destruction. The only alternative for many small businesses will be to close their doors for good.
     
  18. Chester Smith

    Chester Smith New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2024
    Messages:
    20
    Likes Received:
    2
    Great to be on board with stockaholics so ski daddy whats your take on BITFARMS! are you in it for the long term like me!
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    If you want to enjoy a ride in the market time machine.......the current price of SMCI.....after the BIG DROP today.....takes us back to FEBRUARY 21, 2024.

    HEY.....that is only......a little more than.......HOLY COW.........one month.

    Ok....NEVER-MIND.

    Although I am not pushing this stock.....it is speculative and risky. That is why this one and PLTR are for me...."junior positions" on "training wheels".
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    14,640
    Likes Received:
    4,953
    BITFARMS......no not for me. At least it is on the NASDQ so not a penny stock. Being a Canadian company also scares me away since I only invest in American, BIG CAP companies.
     

Share This Page