The Long Term Investor

The way I see their success is that they strongly appeal to Millennials and below. They have strong appeal to female customers from what I see. I posted a FORBES article a few days ago about Chipotle. It is a pretty good summary of what I see with them besides their middle age to young very loyal customer base.

I cant argue with the stock numbers.......I will be very happy to see those sorts of gains going forward.

Mizugori

I have no idea why they let their share price get so high. Perhaps they just got caught up in the media attention of having one of the highest priced stocks in the market. A stock that high does to some extent discourage trading.

I think in general that way too many companies now allow their shares to get too high. Back in the old days many stocks would split when they got around $100 to $150. Look at NVDA, PLTR, COST....all are way past due to split in my view.

I actually think it hurts shareholders not to split a stock semi-regularly.....even though in "theory" it is a neutral event.

 

I will say.

Even though I now own CMG.....I will never eat there. I am not into what they serve. I can find better, cheaper, if I wish.

BUT...I am not buying the stock to eat there....I am buying it to make money as a little, tiny, owner of part of the company.

 

I agree completely guys......it is definately seen as a HEALTHY option. That is why they have such a loyal following with Millennials and younger and with women. I am sure they are HUGE with suburban women. With the recent interest in HEALTHY eating over the past ten to fifteen years.....they positioned themselves perfectly to capture the under age 45 population.

They currently have about 3200 locations and from what I see they plan to DOUBLE that number.

AND...yes we have a good number of Tex-Mex places that are our favorites. We regularly drive to San Antonio to eat in one restaurant that I have been eating in since I was 8 years old. They are still using some recipes that go back to the Chili Queens that operated in Alamo Plaza in the up to the 1940's.

San Antonio's Chili Queens: The story behind their 60-year reign
https://www.tpr.org/arts-culture/20...i-queens-the-story-behind-their-60-year-reign

We also have 5-7 favorite places here in Austin....in fact we will be going to one of them today.

I dont consider Chiplote as Mexican Food or Fast Food. Healthy eating...yes. Casual, fast,....yes. I put them in the same category as Panera Bread.

 

Thank you guys above....... for contributing to my financial security.....by eating at Chipolte.

 

A negative market day today.....Disney is weighing on the markets. NVDA is being impacted by rumor and talk about MSFT making chips.

NOT a good day for what I own......so far.

 

Needless to say I dont agree....at all.

Amundi, Pictet lead contrarian wave to US stock exceptionalism

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amundi-pictet-lead-contrarian-wave-233801054.html

""US exceptionalism “is overrated,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet. “There’s probably too much optimism about the US in terms of growth and too much pessimism about the rest of the world.”"

and

"“US tech is overvalued, and you don’t want to be exposed to consumer-oriented sectors at a time of an economic slowdown,” Defend said. “The disinflation story is much more credible in Europe than in the US.”"

MY COMMENT

To each their own. That is the GLORY of investing....there is something for everyone. The choices are all over the place.

YOU make your choice.......put up your money.....and take what you get. In the distant past I held Dodge & Cox International Fund ( a favorite during that time span) for about 5-10 years.......for about 10% of my investing money.

Over that time I came to the conclusion that I could make much better money investing in my typical BIG CAP USA companies. That was the end of my "International" investing experience.

 

I am not sure this announcement is a market mover....but it is a small step forward.

Apple announces new iPad Pro with M4, new iPad Air tablets

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/apple-ipad-pro-and-ipad-air-2024-announced.html

"Key Points

• Apple announced new versions of its iPad Air and iPad Pro tablet computers on Tuesday in a short video posted on its website.
• These are the first new iPad models Apple has released since Oct. 2022.
• “This is the biggest day for iPad since its introduction,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said."

MY COMMENT

I dont think this announcement will trigger much elation or excitement. BUT......it is a good thing to update products.

 

A pretty basic topic for the general economy.

Ahead of retail earnings, here’s what we know about the consumer so far

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/retail-earnings-what-we-know-about-the-consumer-so-far.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"Key Points

• There are signs that the U.S. consumer is still spending, especially on experiences.
• But stubbornly high prices are squeezing consumers with lower incomes, pressuring everyday purchases and corporate profits.
• Home Depot and Walmart kick off first-quarter retail earnings next week.

The state of the consumer in 2024 is already taking shape — even before the country’s major retailers begin to report first-quarter earnings, starting with Home Depot and Walmart next week.

There are signs that the U.S. consumer is still spending, especially on experiences. But stubbornly high prices are squeezing consumers with lower incomes, pressuring everyday purchases and corporate profits.

Broadly speaking, credit card companies like American Express,Visa and MasterCard have described spending trends as “relatively strong,” “relatively stable,” and even “healthy.” Payment firms like PayPal and Block
are still seeing strong transaction volumes and payment growth.

Airlines and hotels are expecting a strong travel season ahead, particularly when it comes to international destinations, with Morgan Stanley’s

Michael Wilson noting that “one third of consumers prioritize travel over other discretionary purchases and services.”

In fact, a Morgan Stanley survey showed that 60% of U.S. consumers are planning a summer vacation this year — and just about half of those traveling are expecting to spend more than they did last summer.

Priceline parent Booking Holdings told analysts there are no signs consumers are taking shorter vacations or trading down in their hotel choices. Caesars said overall spending is still strong at its Las Vegas casino resorts.

What’s more, cruise lines are seeing record bookings, even as prices have soared. Passengers are also spending freely onboard the ships, despite having to pay significantly more for food and drinks.

Concerts, too, are still hot tickets even at sky-high prices — with Live Nation

saying there are “no issues at all on fan demand relative to last summer” and that “global fan demand is stronger than ever.”

Everyday purchases

But the picture is different when it comes to more discretionary items and everyday purchases as consumers appear more tight-fisted due to economic headwinds like elevated food costs, rising mortgage rates and fewer government rebates.

As online artisan marketplace Etsy put it, “consumer wallets remain squeezed so there’s often little left after paying for food, gas, rent and child care.”

Consumers have been delaying large purchases for their homes amid the economic uncertainty — potentially a key factor to watch when Home Depot and Lowe’s report results this month.

Wayfair, which reported results Thursday, told analysts that the bigger-ticket category “remains weak” and it’s uncertain when demand for home furnishings will improve. Stanley Black & Decker issued a similar warning, saying “muted consumer and DIY demand” has been a result of “some levels of hesitation from the consumer and from any end user in the bigger ticket items.”

Whirlpool, too, has experienced struggling appliance sales. And Pool Corp.— one of the country’s biggest distributors of pool supplies — said that although pool maintenance spending is “stable,” pool construction and more discretionary purchases were weaker due to high interest rates.

Consumers have also become more discerning with how often or where they dine out. Restaurant sales in the quarter largely disappointed Wall Street amid traffic struggles.

Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan told analysts, “We continue to feel the impact of a more cautious consumer, particularly with our more occasional customer. And a deteriorating economic outlook has weighed on customer traffic, an impact felt broadly across the industry.” McDonald’s added that “the consumer is certainly being very discriminating in how they spend their dollar.”

Price sensitivity

What has become clear this earnings season is that U.S. consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, particularly when it comes to those everyday purchases. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian notes that “consumer cracks are emerging,” especially among lower incomes.

Here are just some of the companies warning about price sensitivity:

• Both Coca-Colaand PepsiCo

• have observed behavioral shifts in consumers seeking out value, particularly at the low end.

• Meat producer Tyson Foods

• told analysts that cumulative inflation pressures have “created a more cautious, price-sensitive consumer” and that it’s experiencing “a little slippage to private label with lower-income households.”

• Hershey

• said that it continues to see “value-seeking behavior from consumers.”

• Special K and Pringles owner Kellanova

• saw a 5% decline in North America volumes amid elasticity pressures as a result of prices being 5% higher than a year ago.

• Burger King and Popeyes parent Restaurant Brands

• noted, “We’ve seen consumers become a bit more sensitive to price, resulting in moderating check growth.”

• Footwear and apparel maker Steve Madden

• bluntly said, “We do see a customer that still is price sensitive” and noted that its outlet stores have outperformed its full-priced business.

Weakness in the lower-end consumer could pose issues for discounters like Dollar General and Dollar Tree as well as off-price retailers like TJX, Ross Stores and Burlington Stores when they all report earnings in the coming weeks.

Amazon succinctly describes the new normal: “Customers are shopping but remain cautious, trading down on price when they can, and seeking out deals.” Etsy shared that same sentiment: “Consumers feel really pressured and so they are seeking value and deep discounts and deep promotions.”

Profit squeeze

As a result, companies are now being forced to compete for consumers’ dollars via promotions and deals. Some have found at least near-term success. Shake Shack said its sales improved from February through April thanks to effective promotions and offers. Domino’s said its revamped loyalty program has helped sales. Taco Bell’s value menu has incentivized guest visits.

While there’s growing pressure on companies to cut prices to win over consumers, sticky inflation in food, energy, labor and other input costs poses a major hurdle to profitability for restaurants, retailers and consumer product firms alike.

Most companies have already seen decelerating pricing power in recent quarters — partly due to the more challenging demand climate and partly due to prices already being at very high levels.

Shake Shack said it raised prices in mid-March, but executives told analysts they have “no current plans to further increase price this year.” That decision was made even though they “expect inflationary pressures in wages and food and paper to persist.”

With a greater focus on promotions, profit margins will be under more pressure. Look at Starbucks, which saw margins that both missed Wall Street estimates and shrunk compared to a year ago. One of the reasons cited in its earnings report for the disappointing margin performance: “increased promotional activities.” Compound that with weak traffic, and it’s a recipe for trouble.

Ultimately, as companies face more pricing pressure ahead, they will likely have to rely on other cost cuts or effective cost management to help preserve their profit margins in the coming quarters.

Brace yourself for an intriguing retail earnings season in the coming weeks."

MY COMMENT

Companies are hitting the wall regarding their ability to keep raising prices. There are price levels where consumers....even well to do consumers....will simply say...NO. I can see it and feel it in all the restaurants and small businesses that we patronize.

 

Well I have five stocks up and five stocks down today.....MSFT, NVDA, PLTR, SMCI, and CMG....all red at this moment. In the green are....COST, HD, GOOGL, AMZN, and AAPL.

I have not looked......but with NVDA being such a large position in my portfolio....I have no doubt that I am in the red at this moment. At least three of the red stocks today.....PLTR, SMCI, and CMG....are "junior positions" in my portfolio.

 

HEY.....the NASDAQ has quickly gone positive.

Perhaps we are shaking off the opening weakness.

I really have NOTHING more that is exciting to me this week. PLTR earnings was it this week. Next week I will get earnings from HD and NVDA. After that I only have COST....yet to report. So.....we are close to the end of the excitement for me this time around with.....EARNINGS.

BUT....no problem it will all start over again in July/August.....it is a never ending process.

 

I see that PLTR is down by 14.4% today.....compliments of earnings. BUMMER.

This is a young company that is in the process of trying to ramp up their business......so this earning report was NOT a concern to me in the slightest. I think this is simply a short term over-reaction.

It is not like I have a big position anyway......BUT....I would like to see the company grow and become a big success. Currently they seem to be caught up in a trading range between about.....$22 and $25....per share.

 

Strathmore....RG....and Lori. With all of you being outside the USA.....how big of an impact from inflation are you feeling in your area?

 

I had a small loss today considering. I had a number of stocks that were up and down during the day. In the end I had four stocks UP today.....COST, GOOGL, APPL, and AMZN. the rest were DOWN. I also got beat by the SP500 today by 0.55%.

A fairly meaningless day for me....moving on.

 

The close today.

Stock market today: S&P 500 rises for 4th day, Disney sinks 9% after earnings

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...-disney-sinks-9-after-earnings-200558354.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"US stocks finished close to where they started Tuesday but largely built on a string of gains amid growing hopes for rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, investors soured on Disney's (DIS) earnings, sending the stock down sharply.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose just under 0.1%, or about 30 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked up 0.1% for its fourth consecutive positive session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) edged down about 0.1%.

Prior to the sideways movement, stocks had gained significant ground as confidence grew that a "Goldilocks" jobs report will give the Federal Reserve reason to ease up on historically high rates — a belief bolstered by comments from policymakers on Monday.

But in remarks at the Milken Institute Global Conference Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said it's likely that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period of time.

In the corporate world, results from Disney took center stage as the media giant delivered its first quarterly earnings since winning its proxy fight with activist Nelson Peltz last month. The company's earnings beat Wall Street estimates as a key part of its direct-to-consumer streaming business — which includes Hulu and Disney+ — turned its first profit. But shares tumbled over 9% after the company said it expects weaker results in that segment for the current quarter.

Corporate earnings continue to hold sway even as the Fed's interest rate policy decisions dominate headlines. Over 80% of S&P 500 have posted results in the best season for earnings in almost two years, which has seen companies prosper despite "sticky" inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.


MY COMMENT

A generally meaningless day today. At least we were able to rack up four days in a row to the GREEN for the SP500.

As usual....DISNEY...beat on earnings...but...got hammered on the guidance. It was a mild profit taking day today and a market that never had any clear sense of direction.

We move on forward with a fresh start tomorrow.

 

OK....just playing with some numbers on here. I looked back to when I started this thread......2018.

HERE is the return in my account for each year starting with 2018.....my Stockaholics years:

2018 (-5.00%)
2019 +31.67%
2020 +20.32%
2021 +34.76%
2022 (-28.76%)
2023 +45.44%
2024 +22.12%....as of last Friday, May 5, 2024.

So from 2018 to now closing in on half way through 2024.......the above is my long term record. I would consider 6.5 years as....LONG TERM.

I dont see anything above as really shocking. I know that many of the years above there were people on here that beat my annual return.

For comparison here are the returns of the SP500 (total return):

2018 (-4.38%)
2019 +31.49%
2020 +18.40%
2021 +28.71%
2022 (-18.11%)
2023 +26.29%
2024 +9.38% (YTD)

 

Ok...thanks....Strathmore and RG. It is always interesting to get the take of others that are outside the USA bubble.