WOW....you guys have done a good job with the markets while I was gone. Keep up the good work for the rest of the day.
Costco stock is certainly doing well today. This is the obvious reason. Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports April Sales Results 05/08/2024 https://investor.costco.com/news/ne...tion-Reports-April-Sales-Results/default.aspx "ISSAQUAH, Wash., May 08, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Costco Wholesale Corporation (“Costco” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: COST) today reported net sales of $19.80 billion for the retail month of April, the four weeks ended May 5, 2024, an increase of 7.1 percent from $18.48 billion last year. Net sales for the first 35 weeks were $166.44 billion, an increase of 7.0 percent from $155.62 billion last year. Comparable sales were as follows: 4 Weeks 35 Weeks U.S. 5.8% 4.1% Canada 5.2% 7.7% Other International 5.1% 9.1% Total Company 5.6% 5.2% E-commerce 14.6% 14.7% Comparable sales excluding the impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange were as follows: 4 Weeks 35 Weeks U.S. 5.2% 4.4% Canada 5.9% 8.2% Other International 7.0% 7.8% Total Company 5.5% 5.3% E-commerce 14.8% 14.6% This year’s retail month of April was impacted by the shift in timing of Easter. The shift negatively impacted total and comparable sales by a little more than 0.5 percent. Additional discussion of these results is available in a pre-recorded message. It can be accessed by visiting investor.costco.com (click on “Events & Presentations”). This message will be available through 4:00 p.m. (PT) on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. " MY COMMENT Considering the negative impact of the timing of Easter this year....those are killer numbers. I know there must be some article somewhere reporting this....but....I have yet to find anything in the news. The stock is up by +$12.02 or 1.57%. Looking at a chart it appears to be sitting just below an all time high right now.....which was put up just two days ago. They along with NVDA are the last couple of stocks that I own that have yet to report earnings.
LOL....I wonder how this is all going over with some of their young work force.....although I have to say it is nice to see a CEO that has some guts and I agree completely....from a simple BUSINESS standpoint.. Billionaire tech CEO calls wokeness the 'central risk' to America Alex Karp offered his company as a 'counter-example' to woke companies in America https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/billionaire-tech-ceo-calls-wokeness-central-risk-america I am posting this since it is one of my companies.....PLTR. OMG......read at your own risk...IF YOU DARE. Personally I would buy the stock.....SIMPLY......based on the BEST CEO hairdo I have seen in a long, long time.
I DO like a CEO that is not afraid of their own shadow. That is why I also like Elon Musk even though I dont own TSLA.
GOOGL, NVDA, SMCI, and PLTR....are my only RED stocks at this moment. Come on "boys".....lets get moving and join the rest of the market gains today.
Just got this from SCHWAB: "The trade settlement period will be shortened to one day beginning May 28, 2024. Starting on May 28, 2024, the settlement period for most securities traded on U.S. exchanges or over the counter will shorten from two business days (T+2) to one business day (T+1). For most investors, this event may have little or no impact. However, there are a few key things to know. New shortened settlement period reduces risk. The T+1 settlement period may benefit investors like you by reducing credit and liquidity risks present between the trade date and the settlement date. This is an industry-wide change for most security transactions and types, such as stocks, bonds, municipal securities, exchange-traded products, secondary market CDs, unit investment trusts, and certain mutual funds and limited partnerships that trade on U.S. exchange or over the counter. There will be no change to the settlement period for treasuries, options, or futures as they already use the T+1 settlement period. Cost basis Implications After T+1 goes into effect, any changes to your cost basis method will have to be made within one business day of the trade, not two. Margin interest implications If you place a trade in a margin account and then need to sell money market funds (“MMFs”) to cover your purchase, the funds will need to be available prior to or on the same day as the trade settlement to avoid being charged margin interest. For trades placed for bonds, equities and other securities, the MMFs will need to be sold by 4 p.m. ET the same day the purchase trade is placed. To avoid accruing margin interest: • MMFs will need to be sold by 4 p.m. ET to cover trading in the after-hours market that same day. • MMFs will need to be sold by 4 p.m. ET to cover purchases of Fixed Income securities that can be traded until 5 p.m. ET the same day. Your next steps. The new settlement period will automatically apply to any new trades executed on or after May 28, 2024. You may need to pay closer attention to how the shorter settlement time could affect your investment, trading, or tax decisions." MY COMMENT About time....it is the modern computer era after-all......and...has been for 20-30 years. I did like to use that two to three day float....but....oh well.....not a shocking issue going forward.
COOL....I have a small gain in CMG. I bought at $3174. Current price is $3223. So I have a gain of +1.54%. Quick....sell, sell, sell. No....I dont think so. My little gain of $49 per share would only net me $490. And.....hopefully.....I would be kicking myself about five years down the road. I need to build up a cushion of 5% to 10% on these shares.
Of course......CUE the CLOWNS. These people are just relentless ego maniacs. Fed's Daly favors waiting to gain confidence that inflation is dropping https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...nce-that-inflation-is-dropping-185155256.html This was less than an hour or two ago. We have seen these MORONS out there talking every day this week...often....multiple people in one day. This is now ABSOLUTELY ridiculous.
The stock market is such a hack institution over the short term. Here we have NVDA being punished for the ARM earnings....I believe it was also punished for the PLTR earnings and the SMCI earnings....or rather...I should say guidance. This is really shoddy and lazy market action. BUT....par for the short term course. The short term LOVES to throw the baby out with the bath water.......and.....a few days later they are in a HUGE scramble to recover the poor baby.
Unless something changes in the next three minutes...this is how we ended our day today. Dow pops 300 points, heads for seven-day winning streak https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks rose Thursday, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for another winning day, as new data rekindled hope for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 323 points, or 0.8%, putting the 30-stock index on track for its seventh consecutive positive day for its longest winning streak of 2024. The S&P 500 added nearly 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained about 0.2%. Home Depot and Caterpillar led the Dow higher as the stocks gained more than 2% each. Fresh weekly jobless claims data came in at the highest level since August, raising expectations that central bankers might cut interest rates at some point this year. In addition to the unemployment data, a bond auction met with strong demand helped drive yields lower on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury was down more than 2 basis points at 4.461% while the 2-year Treasury yield dipped more than 3 basis points to 4.811%. “A bit of softness in the data gives the Fed a window to follow through with its dovish bias,” MRB Partners global strategist Phillip Colmar said, adding that Thursday’s market is taking the claims data as a plus. “A long as bond yields aren’t threatening, it’s a green light. The Fed and the bond market have given a green light together to buy risk, or continue to buy risk.” Earlier, a fresh batch of quarterly earnings reports came out below Wall Street’s expectations, briefly dampening sentiment. Warner Bros Discovery added 1.8%, despite reporting a miss on the top and bottom lines, while semiconductor company Arm lost more than 1.5% over lackluster revenue guidance. Airbnb pulled back more than 6.5% after a weak guidance overshadowed a first-quarter beat." MY COMMENT Perhaps I am delusional since no one else can apparently see this....but we are pretty much in a GOLDY-LOCKS economy. We are in a nice BULL MARKET, we are going to see rate cuts soon some time over the next 6-8 months. Inflation is down. There was NO recession. We are basically recovered from the pandemic. Etc, etc, etc. The greatest danger going forward.....government and the election.
WOW....in spite of losses in NVDA, PLTR, and SMCI......I had a small gain today. ALL my other stocks were in the green. HD did a good job for me today as did COST and CMG. I did get beat by the SP500 by 0.47%. I am just happy to be in the green....so I will take it.
NOW.....we have to look to the future..the past (today) is over and done. I WANT TO SEE A BIG FAT FRIDAY RALLY TOMORROW. Actually, I think we do have a shot at one happening.
I like this little article....while waiting for the markets to settle in today. An Investing Lesson "From" the Birds Real-life birds, not the Hitchcock film. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...commentary/an-investing-lesson-from-the-birds (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Milton Friedman was right: All analogies are bad analogies. Nevertheless, I am going to impart a timeless investment lesson with a story about birds and failure. For the past two weeks, a pair of dark-eyed juncos have attempted to nest on my patio. At first they just poked around, inspecting every nook and cranny of my flower pots—house hunting, if you will. They eventually settled on a campanula tucked into a corner, seemingly safe on the middle tier of a three-level stand, where they could hide under a little roof and behind the plant’s fronds. They built a nest, I gave them names, the lady laid some eggs, she didn’t freak when I came out to water, and all was good. For a week, she sat proudly in that nest, watching the world go by while keeping her little eggs warm. I was counting down the days till hatching and peeping. But Monday evening, I came home to silence and emptiness. She was gone, and the egg count was down from three to one. The nesting attempt had failed, likely due to predation. There were no visible signs of trauma. No broken shells, no feathers, no nothing. But clearly a crow or squirrel had invaded, stolen two eggs and forced the birds to abandon the remaining one in its now unsafe location. It was sad, but so it goes. The natural world is a brutal place. Mostly, I felt bad for the bereft parents and wished they had left me a change-of-address card. Silly me, it turns out! For on Tuesday morning, I heard movement and chirping on the patio. I looked out, and there they were! Back at it, hopping around and investigating the flower pots once again! Noticing they had a particular interest in my delphinium pot, I peeked in and saw they had already made a perfect round indentation in the soil, behind the main plant and below plenty of foliage. Undeterred by the tragedy, they were trying again and applying lessons learned from the failed attempt. The nest was half-finished by evening, and they were back to work at dawn Wednesday. Failure, it seems, was a motivator to improve—not to stop trying. Weirdo that I am, I immediately contrasted this with a decision my grandpa made 20-plus years ago. When he retired in the mid-1990s, he became fascinated with the stock market. Every day, he would watch CNBC for hours, tracking stocks he owned and those he considered owning with a pencil and paper, watching their movements and looking for patterns and trading opportunities. I know now this is a suboptimal approach, but his engineering mind loved it, and even though he picked legacy companies he was familiar with (think Industrials stalwarts, tobacco and well-known food and drug brands) over the dot-com startups, he did quite well for a few years, or so my grandma always bragged. But like so many, he got caught in the 2000 – 2002 bear market. At some point near the low, he gave up and never went back to stocks. When I would ask why, he would mutter something about the market being rigged and “the little guy” not being able to make money anymore, making him better off in bonds and CDs. In my opinion, it was a tragic decision, one that seriously affected their options for late-life care in their last couple years on Earth. I love my grandpa still, but he submitted to failure. He let it win. But these little birdies did the opposite: They picked themselves back up despite losing their home and their soon-to-be young, and they tried again. Failure? Not an obstacle. I have since learned that this is their very nature. Some birding outlets estimate 85% of nesting attempts fail due to predation, and juncos will make four or more attempts during mating season in order to make the odds work in their favor. This persistence in the face of failure is how the suburban population keeps growing despite the overwhelming failure rate. We all fail, in life and investing. It happens. We make decisions that don’t work out. We act rashly, yielding to emotion rather than logic and what we know deep down to be true. We buy and sell at the wrong times, driven by greed and fear. We participate in bear markets and watch our portfolio value tumble. Even in good times, we will have some red downward arrows by certain holdings. Perfection is impossible, always. Things can and will go wrong, and often. But when they do, the best long-term move isn’t to foist responsibility for it on external forces and take yourself out of the race, as my grandpa did. It is to look in the mirror, acknowledge it didn’t work out, find the mistake, own it, and then get back to business, applying the behavioral lessons learned in an effort to avoid making that particular mistake again. Learn where and why you were weak, and make that facet of yourself stronger. In other words, if you will pardon the analogy, think like a bird. Another way to think about it? Stocks rise in 73.5% of all calendar years, which means they fall in a little more than a quarter of them.[ii] That is a much lower failure rate than junco nesting attempts! If those feathered friends can keep going when they are successful only 15% of the time, that seems like excellent inspiration for investors to keep going after a bad stretch—knowing that stocks still rise the vast majority of the time, providing a whopping big payoff for patience and discipline. None of this is easy, of course. Down markets are discouraging to most, and they can feel like they will never turn around. But the most rewarding things in life are always difficult. Climbing the mountain, winning the race and beating the odds are timeless, relatable metaphors for a reason. Maybe raising little birds won’t make that list. But if they can keep trying to nest again and again after losing everything, then surely all of us humans, with our basic reasoning skills, can find it in us to keep investing after the market’s occasional sucker punches." MY COMMENT EVERY investor makes mistakes. If they say they never do they are lying. Greatest problem with Grandpa....."looking for patterns and trading opportunities". Look at the recent BUFFETT investment in Paramount. He lost a TON of money and finally simply sold all shares. Fortunately long term investing in good companies tends to average out and produce gains over time. Avoid emotion, stay in the markets, pick solid investments with good probability, gain experience over time....and...YOU will do well.
Speaking of poor investing habits. Why trends are so intoxicating for investors — and dangerous: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-...s--and-dangerous-morning-brief-100000442.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Shares of Roblox plunged yesterday after the gaming platform company gave disappointing bookings guidance. You’d never know Roblox isn’t doing well in my house. My teenager and my tweenager bounce around between games like Blox Fruits and Pet Simulator X. My younger son’s birthday presents mostly consisted of a stack of gift cards for Robux (in-game currency), although they might have been evenly split with V-Bucks (for Epic Games-owned Fortnite). On the other hand, the majority of people reading this are about to google “what is Roblox,” as they do every quarter, before forgetting. (It’s an online gaming platform where users can build and play games.) Roblox (RBLX) only came public in 2021, and its stock has fallen from a high above $130 a share in November of that year to around $30 now. That’s as its annual sales growth rate has moderated into the mid-twenties percentage range. It feels like the jury’s still out on whether the Roblox craze ends up being a flash in the pan or a lasting trend. It’s tempting as an investor to buy what you know, as Warren Buffett has famously said. And when it comes to trends that we interact with, see, and judge on a regular basis, we develop opinions. But what if the trend you know ends up being just a fad? There are a few high-profile examples as of late. Take Peloton (PTON), that pandemic-era darling that may be going the way of Jazzercise or Tae Bo (Google it, kids). That stock’s collapse makes Roblox’s look like a gentle slide: from a closing high of $162.72 two days before Christmas 2020 to just above $4 now — a slump of 97%. There’s a good business in there somewhere, as we’ve written in this newsletter, but somewhere the order of magnitude got misunderstood. Or consider Beyond Meat (BYND), whose shares have fallen by about the same amount since the record it set during the height of grilling season 2019. The plant-based meat maker’s stock tumbled yesterday after it posted its eighth straight quarter of declining year-over-year sales. Counterbalancing the expensive stationary bike now acting as a clothes hanger, or the glut of faux meat in the grocery freezer, are the initially questionable propositions that ended up becoming integrated into our lives. The once-ridiculed AirPods. Uber, which faced resistance from taxi drivers and riders alike — not to mention outrage over revelations that it was tracking users after they exited vehicles. Or Airbnb — you want to rent your house out to strangers? Discerning a fad from a more permanent fixture of our economy looks like a zero-sum game. And with 20/20 hindsight, you can see why stuff worked. Apple forced the adoption by giving its users an ultimatum: Cut the cord or get an Android. Uber used a VC war chest to subsidize its way into adoption, aided by a good idea users liked and actually found useful. Airbnb ended up spurring a new kind of real estate investing for the supply side, and a smoother experience than renting a house or apartment for the demand side. And sure, Peloton can bump along with its core user base. I still buy Beyond Meat burgers on occasion. The companies remain going concerns. But for investors, either the trend hits sustainably or it might as well not hit at all. So check back with me in a few years to see if Robux are still on the gift list — or if the next generation of kids has sustainably replaced mine playing Adopt Me or one of the other tens of millions of games on the Roblox platform." MY COMMENT My view.....people bought these companies too early. They got sucked in by the hype. They were fooled by their personal bias and trying to hit the jackpot. ME......I prefer to wait to buy a company till it is more of a proven entity. Till it is a YOUNG....big cap company.....with proven products that are dominant.
At least the big INDEXES are consistent today. Right now the DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ are all in the green by 0.35% to 0.38%. Not a bad way to start the day.
My CMG and NVDA are looking good today. I think I have six stocks up and four down....although I have not looked yet. Stock market today: Stocks rise, Dow eyes 8th straight win as rate-cut hopes abound https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...t-win-as-rate-cut-hopes-abound-133123854.html MY COMMENT Nothing new in the above.....a news free day today. BUT: "...investors will listen closely to speeches from a packed line-up of Fed speakers on Friday for more insight into timing, pace, and chance of an easing in policy. Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, and Austan Goolsbee are among those scheduled to appear. Earlier, Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic said he sees a single rate cut late this year, but echoed fellow official Mary Daly's preference for waiting for a more robust signal that price pressures are easing." We will have to ENDURE yet another day of relentless, moronic, ego-centric, FED attacks on the markets IDIOTS at work today.
For collectors....sounds like the housing market. An art market full of cracks is about to face a $1 billion test https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/art-sales-down-collectors-pull-back.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Art auction sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips over the next two weeks are expected to total $1.2 billion, down 18% from a year ago, according to ArtTactic. Dealers and art experts say the auction art market is stalled over price. While the spring sales typically have more than a dozen works offered for more than $30 million each, this year there are just a few. The key May art sales at major auction houses are expected to be down from last year, as wealthy buyers and sellers take a breather from the frenzied prices of 2021 and 2022. Art auction sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips over the next two weeks are expected to total $1.2 billion, down 18% from a year ago and nearly half the total for the May 2022 sales, according to ArtTactic. It extends a recent decline for the art market from its post-Covid peak, when cheap money, a booming stock market and fiscal stimulus saw record sales. Last year, global auctions of fine art fell 27% from 2022 — the art market’s first contraction since the start of the pandemic in 2020 — and the average price dropped 32%, marking the biggest decline in seven years, according to ArtTactic. During the first quarter of this year, sales in the contemporary and postwar category — the big money maker and growth driver for the art market in recent years — plunged 48%, according to ArtTactic. The auction houses say demand from buyers remains strong. The problem, they say, is supply, as collectors hold back on selling their trophies for a better market environment. This spring, there are also no big single-owner collections up for sale, like the Macklowe Collection or Paul Allen Collections that helped power sales in previous years. “We’re seeing what people perceive as a smaller offering this season,” said Brooke Lampley, global chairman and head of global fine art at Sotheby’s. “The proof is in the pudding. It’s the buyers showing up and what the work will sell for that will define our perception of the art market right now. And I expect the results to be strong.” Price pressures Dealers and art experts say the auction art market is stalled over price, with sellers not willing to get a lower price than they might have gotten at the peak of the market in 2021-2022. Buyers, meanwhile, are demanding discounts due to rising interest rates, an uncertain election year and geopolitical uncertainty. “Sellers want 20% more, and buyers want 20% less,” said Philip Hoffman, CEO of the Fine Art Group, an advisory and art finance firm. “There is a stalemate.” Dealers say today’s buyers don’t have the confidence they had two or three years ago: Persistent inflation, higher interest rates, fears of a slowing economy, the upcoming elections and geopolitical crises are all causing many collectors to pause their buying. “People feel hesitant,” said Andrew Fabricant, chief operating office at Gagosian, the mega-gallery and dealership. “It’s an election year, there is the situation with the Fed, are they going to cut or not. The cost of money is relatively high compared to a few years ago.” Even buyers who have the cash and are willing to pay aren’t buying, because there is a dearth of top-level art coming up for auction, according to experts. “Our clients have have a ton of cash,” Hoffman said. “The question they’re asking is, ‘Should we buy in to the art market right now?’” Fewer pieces While the spring sales typically have more than a dozen works offered for more than $30 million each, this year there are just a few. The most expensive works this auction season include Francis Bacon’s 1966 “Portrait of George Dyer Crouching,”— part of a series of 10 famous and monumental portraits Bacon did of Dyer between 1966 and 1968. It’s selling at Sotheby’s for an estimated $30 million to $50 million. Sotheby’s also has a collection of four paintings by Joan Mitchell, with two expected to fetch over $15 million. Christie’s is featuring a large work by Brice Marden, who died last year, called “Event,” estimated at $30 million to $50 million. It also has an iconic 1982 work by Jean-Michel Basquiat, called “The Italian Version of Popeye Has No Pork In His Diet,” estimated at $30 million. Yet collectors and art advisors say there are few if any “masterpiece” works to create excitement this season. “They just don’t have the marquis material this season,” Fabricant said. “Unless you have something truly singular and special, I don’t think you’re going to have the same enthusiasm you had in past sales.” At the same time, art experts say now is a good time to hunt for bargains given the long-term prospects for the art market. “I do think if you can get deals with pre-2022 prices and if there is something of good quality, now is the time to buy,” Hoffman said. “My outlook for the art market for next 10 years is that it will be a fabulous investment. It’s a great time to buy, not the best time to sell.” While auction sales are weak, sales in the private markets and galleries remains strong, advisors say. Sales of new works in galleries are less dependent on investment returns, and are therefore less susceptible to economic and stock-market volatility. The auction houses are also seeing strong growth in their private sales, where they broker a deal directly between buyer and seller without a public auction. Christie’s sold a Mark Rothko painting to hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin earlier this year for more than $100 million, CNBC previously reported. Collectors say selling a trophy work privately carries less risk of a failed auction, which can damage a work’s value. “With private markets, you can be very targeted in terms of who you’re approaching, what type of buyer you’re approaching,” said Drew Watston, head of art services at Bank of America. “You can be very targeted about the price that you’re going out and asking for in the market. There’s great discretion so you can kind of go out into the market and test a price and adjust depending on the feedback that you get.”" MY COMMENT We do not do the sort of art discussed above. Our focus in on American Impressionistic paintings and Western Art. The markets that we are active in are as strong as I have ever seen them. The Western Art market is on fire. BUT....we do not buy art for investment. Sure....it is nice to see prices going up for historic works such as we own....but we see art as more of an inflation hedge and emergency fund....in addition to being home decor. It is also a nice way to diversify our other money that is totally in either stocks or real property (our free and clear house). AND...I buy art the same way I buy stocks...ICONIC, PROVEN work by ICONIC, PROVEN artists that are deceased. AND....we are very educated buyers. We also sell at times to trade up in quality. And....there is a limit.....in terms of the amount of money we want to have tied up in assets such as art and collectables. OUR net worth is composed of the following categories: Stocks and Funds. Real property (our free and clear house, $1.5MIL). Art, antiques, collectables, and personal property. Cash or safe assets (Social Security and Annuities)
The irrelevant economic news today. Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/con...fears-surge-closely-watched-survey-shows.html
I just looked and I am doing well today. Six stocks UP and four stocks DOWN. Most importantly my NVDA is Up today....it has a big impact on my day to day results since it is my largest holding. We are seeing some....mid morning, daily witching hour....weakness in the markets right now. The question....do we come back from here or does it snowball to the negative.? At this point I really dont care much. I am expecting a mild loss this week unless we see a change in the markets this afternoon. This week has mostly been treading water for me. That is simply how the markets work....short periods of explosive gains with time periods of lingering, in between. As a long term investor you have to have the nerves and ability to sit through it all. Nothing is worse than investor anxiety......which leads to excessive trading and chasing returns that are not there anyway. My goal with my portfolio is to maximize the gains when we are in the explosive time periods and minimize the losses in-between.....over the short term.....leading to long term....compounding..... gains that meet or beat the SP500. AND...the only way to achieve this is by holding rational and realistic investments and doing NOTHING.
