Having a portfolio heavily weighted in NVDA, The next 12 days are completely meaningless because it will all get erased after the ER. Chip stocks have been beating but offering softer guidance. Time will tell if we have another buying opportunity or if our accounts are going to new ATH.
The wife and I did our part for all the CMG investors and picked some dinner up last night. You're welcome
I had a good day today...ending in the GREEN with only four stocks up.....NVDA, COST, MSFT and CMG. I also beat the SP500 by 0.30%.
The week that was. DOW year to date +4.77% DOW five days +1.94% SP500 year to date +10.12% SP500 five days +1.56% NASDAQ 100 year to date +9.80% NASDAQ 100 five days +1.10% NASDAQ year to date +10.67% NASDAQ five days +0.82% RUSSELL year to date +2.33% RUSSELL five days +0.55% My entire account at the end of last week year to date+22.12%. My entire account at the close today year to date +24.28%. I am surprised at how I did this week....I really had no idea that the result would be this good.
The headline pretty much says it all. Stock market today: Dow nabs 8th straight winning session, S&P 500 marches back toward record high https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...arches-back-toward-record-high-183420777.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Dow eked out its eighth straight session of gains on Friday and closed out its best week of the year as US stocks finished the day mostly in the green. The gains came despite the three major indexes losing some steam earlier in the session after consumer sentiment hit a six-month low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which capped off its best week since Dec. 15, jumped roughly 0.3%, or about 125 points. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) finished the day up about 0.2%, closing above 5,220. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed just below the flatline. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday revealed a 13% drop in overall sentiment during the month of May. The index reading for the month came in at 67.4, its lowest level in six months and well below economist expectations of 76.2. The drop in sentiment comes as investors debate the future of interest rate cuts amid recent signs of a cooling labor market. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday she believes interest rates need to stay where they are "for a bit longer," echoing similar sentiments made by other Fed officials in recent weeks. On the corporate front, TSMC (TSM) shares popped after the Taiwanese contract chipmaking giant said its sales jumped 60% in April. It credited sustained AI demand paired with a revival in consumer electronics such as smartphones." MY COMMENT Past results etc, etc, etc. Nice to see but we move on from here. Although I think we are due for a BIG POP up. But who can predict the short term....I dont claim to be able to. BUT...it is fun to try. AND.....NO....I dont trade in any way based on this sort of "feeling".
Agree TireSmoke. We will either ENDURE the NVDA earnings and post-earnings trading.....or.....we will enjoy the post-earnings ride. Either way I have ZERO plans to quit riding this wave.
Wxyz - any comments on the mgmt / leadership at your newest holdings, PLTR & SMCI? I am just curious because that was one of the major factors you used to talk about when I first joined this forum and you were explaining what you look at when considering a stock to invest in.
The primary thing I will say about management at both companies is that it is still FOUNDER management. I like that. Companies like NVDA with founder management are something that I have invested in often....HD, WMT, TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, NKE, COST, NVDA, SMCI, PLTR......and in the distant past SBUX and probably some others that I am not remembering or thinking of. I much prefer this sort of involved management to CELEBRITY CEO type management. I find that founders are often very involved in the business on an emotional and personal level....they work harder....after all it is their baby. All the companies that I listed above and many others......had or have founder management.....that has proven that it can run and grow a company. I find that founders in management work harder......and are more involved in the company. Of course there are some founders that are NOT good managers and need help from Venture Capital or others putting management in place. AS ALWAYS...management continues to be one of the primary BIG FACTORS....that I look for in any investment......AMERICAN, BIG CAP GROWTH, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE MARKETING, DOMINANT, etc, etc. Companies....especially start-ups..... dont become great by random chance.......there is usually great management involved. The greatest danger for any successful company comes when the switch over from founder to hired management happens. Other than founder management.....my next choice is companies like COST and HD that promote and grow management within.....people that have worked for the company for decades and really understand the operations of the business.
Remember Mizugori.....PLTR....is sort of an accidental holding...although I do like what they are doing with their business....especially the push for more non-government business. The shares that I own in PLTR (free shares) came from a short term momentum trade and represent the profit from that trade that only lasted mere days. I dont know if I would have invested in that business otherwise. I did have awareness of the company from Zukodany discussing it on here often. I did add PLTR to the other accounts that I manage.....as "bought" shares.....at a "junior position" level. The only accounts that I advise and manage...... (privately, I am not a financial advisor).....that do not have PLTR or SMCI are one of my kids account and their spouses account. These two accounts have all my other stocks......but with their limited money I want to focus them on what I consider the more proven companies that make up my Portfolio Model.....for now. Another company that I recently added....CMG......is in ALL the accounts that I manage.....including my kids account and their spouses account. As always.....I put my extended family money......where my mouth is. Over my life I have managed the money for my parents, my in-laws, my kids and their spouses, my sibling, myself, as well as a family trust. NO PRESSURE.....there.....LOL. BUT...actually I am so used to dealing with and investing money for so long now....I dont even think about the responsibility of dealing with the money of others in the family.
While I am doing a little early morning posting....I like this little article. The Profits Stocks Prophesized Earnings growth is great, but stocks saw it coming. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/the-profits-stocks-prophesized (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "With S&P 500 earnings season nearing completion, we can now draw some conclusions and interpretations of the results. And, to us, the major takeaway from these backward-looking figures is simple: They confirm this bull market isn’t built on sand and hot air. With 427 companies having reported as we write, the blended earnings growth rate is 5.5% y/y. This figure, for those who don’t have their financial jargon glossary handy, blends actual results for the 427 reporting firms with estimates for the remaining dozens. So while the stragglers could pull the headline rate down some, it seems safe enough to say earnings grew for the third straight quarter. Growth was broad-based, too, with 8 of 11 sectors growing and only Materials, Energy and Health Care in the red. Communication Services led the charge at 35.8% y/y, driven by whopping 70.2% growth in its Interactive Media and Services industry.[ii] Pair this with Tech’s 22.7% y/y and Consumer Discretionary’s 24.0%—led by e-commerce—and it seems clear to us the Tech and Tech-like firms leading the charge during this bull market are doing so for concrete reasons, not just AI hype and other associated faddish chatter.[iii] Yet the more value-oriented Industrials (6.7% y/y) and Financials (7.2%) also did well, underscoring the bull market’s underappreciated breadth.[iv] Encouragingly, growth came not just from cost-cuts, but from higher activity overall. S&P 500 revenues rose 4.2% y/y, with Communication Services leading the charge here, too.[v] Eight sectors also saw revenue growth—including Health Care—while Utilities joined Materials and Energy in the red. This isn’t much of a surprise, considering natural gas prices are down this year, which drags on electricity rates. It is also probably immaterial to the bull market, given Utilities is a defensive sector and tends to shine brightest when markets are pricing in economic trouble—then, Utilities’ relatively stable revenues are far more attractive than they are when everyone else is growing. Earnings are one of those things people think should drive stocks as they are announced. We see this all the time, with focus on how companies perform in the wake of their earnings releases. And there is a short-term impact, naturally. In its latest Earnings Insight publication, FactSet also hopped on this train, noting that the market seems to be rewarding positive earnings surprises less than usual. To us, this is a function of myopia. It misses the point about how markets work and what Q1 earnings’ real impact is. Markets are forward-looking, while earnings results look back in time. Stocks tend to pre-price expected events within the next 3 – 30 months. So they have already anticipated, lived through and priced whatever happened in Q1 2024—and Q1 2023, when the year-over-year comparison was set—to lead to these results. The results themselves just confirm what stocks already knew intuitively. So in our view, a better way to see earnings’ market impact is to look at how stocks behaved over the last 12 – 18 months or so as they priced this eventual reality in. Here, we see the thread crystal clear. The bear market in 2022, while predicated primarily on sour sentiment toward inflation, rate hikes, the war in Ukraine, energy prices and a host of other interrelated angsts, nonetheless presaged (and pre-priced) a corporate earnings downturn. The earnings downdraft started in Q4 2022, nearly a year after the S&P 500 peaked early that January. Earnings kept declining through Q2 2023, with growth returning that Q3. But stocks didn’t wait for the earnings recovery to show in the data. The new bull market started in October 2022 as stocks looked ahead to earnings growth’s eventual resumption. No, markets didn’t pinpoint the timing in advance. That isn’t how this works. But simply seeing the extent of the top- and bottom-line impact from higher costs and prices was enough to give markets confidence that a recovery would come sooner rather than later, beating the dismal expectations that reigned at the time. That was enough. Since then, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a very nice run, albeit one punctuated by a correction (sharp, sentiment-fueled drop of -10% to -20%) last summer and early fall. The young bull market is far from history’s strongest—actually, it ranks toward the bottom of the leaderboard in returns over the first 18 months. (Exhibit 1) Exhibit 1: Bull Market Returns in the First 18 Months Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., as of 4/15/2024. S&P 500 price returns in the first 18 months off bear market lows. Price returns used due to daily data availability. But a bull market it is, lifting the S&P 500 to new highs as stocks anticipated an earnings recovery gathering momentum. You could say this bull market, to date, is stocks’ reaction to the string of three positive quarterly earnings reports Q1 extended (and will likely persist, in our view). Keep this in mind as it pertains to Energy now. The sector rallied late in Q1 as oil prices rose, leading it to outperform at the last minute. That might seem odd now that we know Energy sector earnings fell -25.6% y/y in Q1.[vi] But here, too, we think stocks were looking forward, to the high likelihood that oil prices hover near the upper end of their 2023 range this year. That would be a longer-term plus for earnings in the sector, which hinge on prices rather than production volumes. Consensus expectations are already starting to reflect this, penciling in 18.5% y/y projected earnings growth for Energy in Q2.[vii] There should be plenty more where this came from, what with US production growth slowing as rig count wanes and global demand proving stronger than expected. Markets just moved first, as usual. So no, Q1 earnings don’t tell us what stocks will do. Rather, we think they shed additional light on why stocks did what they already did. They are context. Backward-looking evidence. And very nice! We like earnings! But they are confirmers, not predictors." MY COMMENT I agree with the above...but often as part of earnings talk....there is guidance for the future. How accurate it is, is debatable.....but....It is a clue about the future. Personally....I never look at expectations or estimates of future earnings. I just wait for them to come out. Earnings estimates are NOT something that I ever read about any of my companies. I basically read anything else that I see about their operations.....but not....analyst opinions or future earnings opinions.
Sounds good to me. Sweetgreen, Chipotle and other fast-casual chains are bucking the consumer slowdown https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/11/swe...ingstop-arent-seeing-a-consumer-slowdown.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Chipotle Mexican Grill, Wingstop and Sweetgreen all beat Wall Street’s estimates for their quarterly same-store sales growth. Fast-casual restaurant chains haven’t seen the same consumer slowdown as the broader industry. Their customers tend to have higher income and are benefiting from the perception that they’re a better value. High-income consumers helped Chipotle Mexican Grill, Wingstop and Sweetgreen report strong sales this quarter, bucking the broader consumer slowdown that’s been hurting other eateries. As a whole, the restaurant industry has seen sales slump and traffic decline as customers pull back their spending. McDonald’s, Starbucks and KFC owner Yum Brands were among the restaurant companies that reported a weak start to 2024. McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said diners are hunting for deals and good value; the chain is working to introduce a $5 value meal, CNBC reported Friday. And John Peyton, chief executive of Applebee’s owner Dine Brands, said the steepest sales drop-off has come from customers making less than $50,000. Fast-casual chains appear to be the exception to the trend. The sector saw higher traffic growth than any other dining sector from November to February, according to GuestXM data. In general, customers of fast-casual chains tend to have higher incomes than those of the fast-food sector, insulating the segment somewhat from low-income consumers’ spending pullback. High-income consumers haven’t felt the same pinch as those in lower-income brackets. Wingstop saw its same-store sales soar 21% in the quarter. CEO Michael Skipworth told CNBC that Wingstop’s customer base used to be largely low-income customers but is now roughly three-quarters higher-income diners. He also credited the company’s success to growing brand awareness and its chicken sandwich, which often serves as an entry point for new customers. Similarly, most of Sweetgreen’s locations are in high-income neighborhoods, CEO Jonathan Neman said last year. On Thursday, the salad chain reported first-quarter same-store sales growth of 5% and raised its full-year outlook for same-store sales growth. Traffic was flat, but executives said bad weather and the inclusion of New Year’s Day and Easter hurt its business. Value counts Chipotle and other chains have also gotten a boost from consumers’ perception of their value as the cost of Big Macs and Whoppers rise. Last year, fast-food chains raised prices more dramatically than fast-casual chains, according to TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles. While a bowl or salad from a fast-casual restaurant will still be more expensive than a burger or chicken tenders, the pricing gap between the two segments has narrowed. “You can see that fast casual is just a superior value for that consumer, given the quality of what they’re getting,” Charles said. For example, Chipotle’s quarterly same-store sales grew 7%, fueled by a 5.4% increase in foot traffic. The burrito chain has a strong perception of value among diners, CEO Brian Niccol told analysts on the company’s April 24 conference call. Chipotle executives have also previously emphasized that most of its customers come from higher-income brackets. Many fast-casual chains, including Chipotle and Sweetgreen, have also been trying to improve their “throughput,” an industry term that refers to how many bowls or salads their employees can make. That focus on efficiency means their restaurants’ service is getting faster — leading to more transactions, Charles said. Investors had already been betting that fast-casual chains would be an outlier in consumers’ eatery spending. Shares of Chipotle, Shake Shack and Wingstop have all risen at least 35% in 2024. And Sweetgreen’s stock has doubled in value in the same time, excluding its 34% increase on Friday alone. For comparison, the S&P 500 has risen roughly 9% so far this year. But there are still exceptions to the segment trend. For example, Portillo’s, known for its Italian beef sandwiches and Chicago-style hot dogs, said its same-store sales shrank 1.2% in the first quarter. The chain blamed the weak results on “miserable weather across the Midwest,” particularly at the start of the quarter. Likewise, Shake Shack said its quarterly traffic, which was negative, would’ve been flat if not for bad weather in January and February. The burger chain reported same-store sales growth of 1.6% but noted that the metric improved sequentially every month. In April, its same-store sales rose 4.9% year over year. Mediterranean fast-casual chain Cava isn’t expected to report its first-quarter results until May 28. But TD Cowen’s Charles said he’s expecting a stronger quarter for Cava, given its competitors’ performances." MY COMMENT As some have mentioned on here...CMG....has the added benefit of being a HEALTHY EATING option. This strongly appeals to consumers under about age 45...especially women, suburban moms, professional women, etc, etc. As to the trends above...I dont see them changing any time soon. A good thing for me as a shareholder.
The UPDATED Portfolio Model. I am once again posting my PORTFOLIO MODEL. My initial criteria to start the process to consider a business are.......BIG CAP, AMERICAN, DIVIDEND PAYING, GREAT MANAGEMENT, ICONIC PRODUCT, WORLD WIDE LEADER IN THEIR FIELD, LONG TERM HORIZON, etc, etc, etc. PORTFOLIO MODEL "Here is my "PORTFOLIO MODEL" for all accounts managed which is the basis for MUCH of my discussion in this thread. I am re-posting this since I often talk in this thread about my portfolio model. My custom in the past on this sort of thread was to re-post my portfolio model every once in a while since I will tend to talk about it once in a while. I "manage" six portfolios for various family including a trust. ALL are set up in this fashion. If I was starting this portfolio today, lets say with $200,000. I would put half the money into the stock side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each stock. The other half of the money would go into the fund side of the portfolio, with an equal amount going into each fund. As is my long time custom, I would than let the portfolio run as it wished with NO re-balancing, in other words, I would let the winners run. Over the LONG TERM of investing in this style (at least in my actual portfolios), the stock side seems to reach and settle in at about 60% of the total portfolio and the fund side at about 40% of the total portfolio over time. That is a GOOD THING since it tells me that my stock picks are generally beating the funds over the longer term. AND....since the funds in the account generally meet or beat the SP500, that is a VERY good thing. As mentioned in a post in this thread, I include the funds in the portfolio as a counter-balance to my investing BIAS and stock picking BIAS and to add a top active management fund that often beats the SP500 (Fidelity Contra Fund) and a SP500 Index Fund to get broad exposure to the best 500 companies in AMERICAN business and economy. The funds also give me broad diversification as a counter-balance to my very concentrated 10 stock portfolio.At the same time the funds double and triple up on my individual stock holdings............that I consider the BEST individual businesses in the WORLD. STOCKS: Alphabet Inc Amazon Apple Costco Home Depot Microsoft Nvidia Palantir (Junior position) Super Micro Computer (Junior position) Chipotle Mexican Grill (Junior position) MUTUAL FUNDS: SP500 Index Fund Fidelity Contra Fund CAUTION: This is a moderate aggressive to aggressive portfolio on the stock side with the small concentration of stocks and the mix of stocks that I hold and with the concentration of big name tech stocks. Especially for my age group. (74). So for anyone considering this sort of portfolio, be careful and consider your risk tolerance and where you are in your life and financial needs. I am able to do this sort of portfolio since my stock market account is NOT needed for my retirement income AND I have a fairly HIGH RISK TOLERANCE. In addition I am a fully invested, all the time, LONG TERM investor. (LONG TERM meaning many years, 5, 10, 20, years or more)" MY COMMENT This portfolio is HIGHLY CONCENTRATED on the big cap side of things. OBVIOUSLY between the funds and my ten stock holdings there is MUCH doubling and tripling up on the stocks. THAT is INTENTIONAL. I strongly subscribe to the view of Buffett and some others that TOO MUCH diversification kills returns. I do NOT believe in the current diversification FAD that most people seem to now follow.......or think they are following. I DO NOT do bonds and think the current level of bonds held by younger investors.....those under age 50.....is extremely foolish.I DO NOT do market timing or Technical Analysis."
I am trying to keep up in maybe that you might drop a pearl of wisdom and I can reinvest but at this point Im down over 12% and well thats not making me feel too confident with my pick at the moment. Is this just pain that is being felt by everyone thats been in the market well for me April, 26th and it just doesn't look like its easy money does it at the moment at least not for me. I really hope my pick goes up as this seem truly like bad news to people looking to make money. Do you think the market will start recovering monday or do you think I am in for a long hodl here?
It's raining pearl necklaces in this thread. You just need to read it carefully and understand the true meaning of this thread's title. The stock market is easy money if you do your homework and are patient.
Welcome Chester Smith. What stock or stocks are you holding? What mutual funds or ETF's? Did you just start as an investor on April 26? Is your only stock Bitfarms? If so I would consider that a highly speculative, very risky investment. For me....I would consider it a penny stock. If this is your one stock...I would assume that the price of this stock is generally going to follow the price of Bitcoin itself. AND....Bitcoin is down since April 26....from $63,775 to $61,095. Here is some info on the company: Analysts Estimate Bitfarms Ltd. (BITF) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-estimate-bitfarms-ltd-bitf-140008225.html Bitcoin halving sees Bitfarms’ BTC mining earnings plummet https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-impact-bitfarms-mining-rewards NO......most people with a long term focus, long term holdings, rational and realistic picks, and balance in their investments.....are NOT in the red. BUT....If you have only been investing since April 26......and depending on what you own...it is very possible to be in the RED. Were you planing to do a short term trade....or....is your plan to be a long term investor? You might want to consider....... what is your plan and goals as an investor....and....what is the best way to achieve those goals?
I dont think I have owned a stock....other than SMCI.... that has this sort of compressed institutional ownership. Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SMCI) high institutional ownership speaks for itself as stock continues to impress, up 4.9% over last week https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-inc-nasdaq-110014018.html "The top 12 shareholders own 51% of the company." "...the group that holds the biggest piece of the pie are institutions with 68% ownership." On one hand this is an indication of astute ownership....I hope....smart investors that are able to evaluate and analyze a company. I am in good company as a shareholder. On the other hand.....with very compressed ownership a single big shareholder can cause a big drop if....or when.... they sell. So I have mixed emotions. By the way....BlackRock is the largest single owner..... with 11% of the stock.
KILLER EARNINGS....even if they are disrespected. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources Section/Research Desk/Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_051024.pdf (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) " ......(with 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise.....59% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. ...... For Q1 2024, ......(year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 5.4%. .......the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate.......since Q2 2022 (5.8%). .......estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for THE SP500 was 3.4%. ....Guidance: For Q2 2024, 51 S&P 500 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 36 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. ......forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.4. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.1) and above the 10-year average." PLEASE SEE ENTIRE ARTICLE FOR VERY COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS. Earnings are blowing away expectations. As usual....much of the good news is IGNORED and any sort of miss or moderate guidance is punished......a shame, and unjustified, but the reality of the short term.
Well whats the point right I have no options selling at a enormous loss doesn't seem to smart so really I have no option but to hold and wait out the storm I guess. My goal is to make money what other goal could you have? My goal wasn't to be down for weeks. Well obviously in the short term it doesn't look like it makes much sense to invest in anyones idea right its not like you get a job after a investment. I guess thats the point you have to silently be a user what other explanation would you have. We dont work together and you dont share anything so why do people do this to start with or better yet why was the stock market invented? That was more psychologically my question right why was crypto invented, why was the stock market invented. It cant be to facilitate legal theft with a band of criminals. But with crypto we are seeing too many bad actors and that very thing right.
