The Long Term Investor

Discussion in 'Investing' started by WXYZ, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. Chester Smith

    Chester Smith New Member

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    I forgot to answer your questions, Yes Im holding a large position similar to some of the institutional investors apparently. I dont hold ETF's or Mutual funds. Yes I guess I have to say its a long term investment since Im staring at a frustrating double digit percent loss. Yes its all I hold so I guess it looks like because I didn't diversify my choice wasn't the best. But obviously there a trillions in the markets maybe things will turn around soon if not I am not about to lose my shirt.
     
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  2. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    OK. I am sure that stock will probably tend to follow the price of Bitcoin. I dont know this ....but...I am assuming that it is a way to follow Bitcoin without actually holding any Bitcoin.

    Looks like Bitfarm will be reporting earnings on Monday May 13. So you should either see a drop or a gain after the earnings come out depending on how they do. Hopefully they will BEAT on earnings and you will make up some of your loss. Good Luck.
     
  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I have a question Chester Smith. Is Bitfarms a stock that is followed by a lot of people on Reddit?

    Looks like you bought Bitfarms....seven days after the Bitcoin Halving in April. Did you buy it as a play based on the halving?
     
    #19963 WXYZ, May 12, 2024
    Last edited: May 12, 2024
  4. TireSmoke

    TireSmoke Well-Known Member

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    @Chester Smith, I know there are 999 pages on this thread but in my opinion it's worth going back to page 1 and start there. I'm not going to say all the answers to being a great long term investor area already in this thread but I can't think of any that aren't!

    In reading your posts I am seeing what I see in many people starting to invest and one of the reason many don't invest. 'I don't want to lose any or my hard earned money!...... But I want to make all these HUGE gains I see on reddit/other forums/friends/etc.". You need to do some deep diving to truly understand what your risk tolerance is. Sometimes it's better to take the Loss and move on early than it is to ride it out and watch it have agonizing results to your financial and mental health. I have one of the higher risk tolerances in the group and can tell you first hand that large 6 figure pullbacks aren't a great time, but they are part of the game if you play it that way. I had the worse investing year of my life the same time I had a baby and bought a house. Now that same portfolio is near record high. If you have the right stocks it's worth waiting out. These are the tried and true long term blue chips with great leadership that W brings up time and time again.

    I am not a financial advisor so this is just opinion. Start small and work your way up. Most race car drivers start out in a go kart. Take a sum of money that you don't need that if you lost it all it wouldn't change your life in the slightest. Invest it in a S&P500 etf with very low fees. An example is vanguard fund VCO. Do nothing for a month or two and see how you feel about that volatility. The good thing with this is history has so far proven if you wait it out long enough you will make money, usually around 8% or so a year on average. From here I would look at some tech etf's such as VGT or maybe QQQ or something with some exposure to some of the all star stocks of today (Your Nividias, apples, googles, amazon etc). You can play with the ratio to meet the risk of your liking. After you develop a good base then you can add individual stocks.
     
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  5. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    #19965 WXYZ, May 13, 2024
    Last edited: May 13, 2024
  6. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Talk about not a happy day....every one of my stocks is in the red right now....except...PLTR and AAPL. BUMMER.

    At least there is some hope for the day with the DOW, SP500, and NASDAQ all in the green. We will have some clue how the day is settling in about 2-3 hours from now. First we have to clear out all of the pent up weekend trades.

    I admit that I contributed to the opening trading today.....I added 200 shares of PLTR and 19 shares of CMG in one of the accounts that I manage (not my own).
     
    #19966 WXYZ, May 13, 2024
    Last edited: May 13, 2024
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  8. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    ANOTHER day with absolutely NOTHING going on. Of course we have the FED MORONS out there as usual....but I consider that part of the NOTHING that is going on today.
     
  9. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    For those that are bored or ignoring the markets today.....some art hanging advice. I strongly agree with the two points.......typical mistakes....hanging art too high....and....too small a piece on a large wall.

    Displaying art in your home? Here are some do’s and don’ts

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/13/how-to-display-pictures-in-your-home.html

    "Key Points
    • Don’t be afraid to hang large artworks in small spaces, said art consultant Louisa Warfield.
    • A gallery wall, displaying multiple pieces, is a good way to put seemingly disparate artworks together, Warfield said.
    • Art collector Helen Sunderland Cohen said her living space is “eclectic” and that how you display art can be about confidence and intuition."
     
  10. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    We will have two....supposedly....big events this week. The release of the PPI data on Tuesday and the release of the CPI data on Wednesday.

    These events along with the constant and relentless FED talk over the past week or two will.....potentially.... be MAJOR fear-mongering topics for the media.
     
    #19970 WXYZ, May 13, 2024
    Last edited: May 13, 2024
  11. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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  12. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    The dull listless market today.

    Stocks rise as Dow builds on best weekly performance of 2024

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/12/stock-market-news-for-may-12-2024.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Stocks rose Monday, adding to their solid performance in the prior week, with Wall Street looking toward fresh inflation data this week.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 81 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.3%.

    The 30-stock Dow is coming off its best weekly performance of 2024, rising more than 2% last week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed more than 1% each during that period.

    Shares of meme stock GameStop soared 87% after “Roaring Kitty,” the moniker of the Reddit trader behind 2021′s short squeeze, posted online for the first time in three years.

    Inflation data later this week

    Monday’s broad market gains can in part be attributed to traders’ positive expectations that this week’s inflation data will show prices moving lower, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. Additionally, equities are riding on the back of positive momentum from their gains last week.

    “Investors know that after we have recovered all that we lost in a pullback — a 5% to 10% decline — the market tends to advance an additional 5% to 10% over a three-month period,” he added.

    The consumer price index report is slated for Wednesday. Economists expect an April increase of 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, according to Dow Jones. The producer price index, due out Tuesday, is expected to have risen 0.3% last month.

    Investors will parse the data for clues into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moving forward. Traders hope that a return to rate hikes is largely off the table for the Fed despite a slew of hotter-than-expected inflation prints in recent months."

    MY COMMENT

    If CPI and PPI are above expectations expect the fear mongering media to be out in force with speculative opinion based stories about the FED doing another rate hike.
     
  13. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    You know it is a boring.....but.....WILD AND CRAZY DAY.....when the top story I am seeing on some big financial sites is the revival of GAME STOP and the return of "Roaring Kitty".

    GameStop stock gains 110%, gets halted for volatility after 'Roaring Kitty' post

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/game...ility-after-roaring-kitty-post-143738970.html

    Why not? Makes about as much sense as all the FED speakers out there on a mission to TRASH the markets.....day after day after day.
     
  14. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    At least....for me....NVDA has now slightly turned green.
     
  15. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WOW....I now have three of ten stocks up today...including NVDA.

    I can tell that the markets are drifting today.....six of my red stocks are only slightly in the red with potential to turn green, stay red, or do nothing today. So....clear as mud.....as usual for the short term direction today. Luckily....the long term....looks GOLDEN to me as usual.
     
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  16. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I am looking forward to my HD earnings tomorrow. It will be a rare before the open report for me.
     
  17. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    I went to a nice little art event yesterday. We are trying to get a little collector group going here locally. We tried once before but it petered out quickly. For some reason Austin is not a great city for art....at least what is usually collected here in Texas. ALL the other big Texas cities are much more active...Houston, Dallas, Ft Worth, San Antonio.

    We had a nice group......about 25 people..... that included two museum curators and three different art book authors. Now we just have to keep it going...that is the hard part.
     
  18. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    Today ended up as a meaningless day for me. I was in the red by a small amount....thanks to COST, HD, and CMG. NVDA...kept me in it till the end of the day.

    I also lost out to the SP500 by 0.02% today. I guess HD went down due to earnings tomorrow....and...nervousness.
     
  19. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    This week will be RETAIL earnings week with HD tomorrow and WMT on Thursday.
     
  20. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    HERE are the HD earnings today.

    Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt sales

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.html

    (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

    "Key Points
    • Home Depot posted fiscal first-quarter earnings that beat expectations and revenue that missed estimates.
    • The home improvement retailer is seeing customers defer major home projects due to high interest rates.
    • Home Depot is focusing more on building its business with professionals, including through its acquisition of SRS Distribution.

    Home Depot on Tuesday posted quarterly revenue below Wall Street’s expectations, as shoppers postponed bigger discretionary projects like bath and kitchen remodels because of higher interest rates and made spring purchases late.

    Still, the home improvement retailer reaffirmed its full-year guidance, which includes an additional week from the prior year. It said it expects total sales to grow about 1% in fiscal 2024, including those extra days. However, the retailer said it anticipates comparable sales, which take out the impact of store openings and closures, to decline about 1%, excluding that additional week.

    In an interview with CNBC, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said customers are in a waiting game that began in the second half of last year, as they responded to mortgage rates climbing. He said the company anticipated those trends would continue.

    “The home improvement customer is extremely healthy from a financial perspective,” he said. “And so it’s not the case of not having the ability to spend. What they tell us is they’re just simply deferring these projects as given higher rates, it just doesn’t seem the right moment to execute.”

    Here’s what the company reported for the three-month period that ended April 28compared with what Wall Street expected, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

    • Earnings per share: $3.63 vs. $3.60 expected
    • Revenue: $36.42 billion vs. $36.66 billion expected
    Net income for the fiscal first quarter decreased to $3.6 billion, or $3.63 per share, from $3.87 billion, or $3.82 per share, in the year-ago period. Net sales fell 2.3% from $37.26 billion.

    Comparable sales dropped 2.8% in the fiscal first quarter across the business and declined 3.2% in the U.S.

    Shares of Home Depot were up modestly in premarket trading.

    Home Depot is contending with a tougher housing backdrop, which has dampened demand for do-it-yourself projects. About half of Home Depot’s sales come from DIY customers, and the other half come from pros like roofers and landscapers.

    As interest rates remain high, consumers have been reluctant to move out of their homes and into new ones — the kind of turnover that often inspires home projects. Higher interest rates have also dinged the desire for larger-scale projects that can require financing. For the past several quarters, Home Depot has seen customers buy fewer big-ticket items and take on more modest projects – a trend that persisted in the most recent quarter.

    In the fiscal first quarter, customers made fewer visits to Home Depot’s stores and website and tended to spend less when they did. Customer transactions declined 1% to 386.8 million and average ticket fell 1.3% to $90.68.

    Home Depot has seen sales moderate after more than two years of explosive demand during the Covid pandemic. The company posted its worst revenue miss in nearly two decades and cut its forecast in the year-ago first quarter. Home Depot’s sales totaled $152.7 billion in the fiscal year that ended in late January, a drop of 3% from the previous year.

    Inflation may also be playing a role in that pullback, as consumers spend more money on essentials and have to make trade-offs when spending discretionary income.

    However, McPhail said Home Depot is not seeing customers trade down to cheaper items, like less expensive power tools or appliances.He pinned the company’s softer sales in large part on consumers’ “deferral mindset” and a housing market that has slowed dramatically.

    “When we have seen mortgage rates decrease slightly, as we saw at the beginning of this quarter, the housing turnover seems to respond quickly and sharply in a positive direction,” he said. “And so we think that’s an indicator that there is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand for household formation and housing turnover and the larger projects that are associated with housing turnover.”

    Weather pressured sales, too, in the recent quarter, he said. Spring is the biggest sales season for home improvement retailers, including Home Depot.Yet customers delayed outdoor purchases because of colder and wetter weather in many parts of the country, he said.

    Those spring purchases have begun to pick up as the weather improves, he said.

    To overcome slower sales, the home improvement retailer has revved up its strategy to attract pros, since they tend to buy larger quantities and offer a steadier source of sales. Home Depot has a growing network of distribution centers across the country that can store and deliver roofing shingles, insulation and other supplies straight to job sites. It announced in late March that it would acquire SRS Distribution, a Texas-based specialty distributor of roofing, landscaping and pool supplies, for $18.25 billion in the largest acquisition in the company’s history.

    McPhail said the deal is still on track to close this fiscal year, which ends in early February.

    Along with wooing pros, Home Depot is trying to drive growth by opening about a dozen new stores this fiscal year and adding features to improve its online and in-store experience.

    Shares of Home Depot closed Monday at $340.96. So far this year, Home Depot’s shares have fallen about 2% compared with the roughly 9% gains of the S&P 500."

    MY COMMENT

    A challenging environment for HD right now. I would call this a MILD MISS on earnings. At least the guidance was not changed...that should help some going forward.

    I STILL like this company a lot and have no plans to sell any shares. It is a good long term holding for me.
     
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